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This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan., Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan., Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk, Environmental Fluid Mechanics

Water Management, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Increases in typhoon intensity and sea level rise could pose significant challenges to coastal defences around Tokyo Bay. In order to analyse the extent of future problems the authors determined the increase storm surge that could result from an increase in typhoon intensity and sea level rise to this area around the turn of the 21st century. Results show how the various settlements around Tokyo Bay are at considerable risk of storm surges and sea level rise in the future. If defences are breached the potential direct economic consequences could be significant, potentially in excess of 100 trillion yen, with the indirect costs likely to be even greater. As a result it is likely that sea defences will have to be strengthened around Tokyo Bay in the future, which could cost in the order of 370bn yen to defend against a 1 in 100 year storm by the year 2100. Alternatively, a storm surge barrier could be built, which would be more expensive (possibly in the range of 700-800bn yen), though it could increase the protection level and would be able to cope with 1 in 200 or 500 year events, amongst other benefits., Hydraulic Engineering, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Water Management, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Increases in typhoon intensity and sea level rise could pose significant challenges to coastal defences around Tokyo Bay. In order to analyse the extent of future problems the authors determined the increase storm surge that could result from an increase in typhoon intensity and sea level rise to this area around the turn of the 21st century. Results show how the various settlements around Tokyo Bay are at considerable risk of storm surges and sea level rise in the future. If defences are breached the potential direct economic consequences could be significant, potentially in excess of 100 trillion yen, with the indirect costs likely to be even greater. As a result it is likely that sea defences will have to be strengthened around Tokyo Bay in the future, which could cost in the order of 370bn yen to defend against a 1 in 100 year storm by the year 2100. Alternatively, a storm surge barrier could be built, which would be more expensive (possibly in the range of 700-800bn yen), though it could increase the protection level and would be able to cope with 1 in 200 or 500 year events, amongst other benefits., Hydraulic Engineering, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Since 2004, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities globally. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries such as Chile and Japan, many other places had virtually not heard about such phenomenon before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of major tsunamis in recent years has led to the emergence of a “tsunami culture” in many areas of the world, which has resulted in increased awareness, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. However, evacuation during a tsunami is still not successfully carried out by the different elements of society, pointing to lack of awareness, an over-reliance in defence mechanisms or lacking in the transmitting of knowledge from previous events. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis questionnaires carried out by the authors during their own field visits to the last three major events (Chile in 2009, Indonesia in 2010 and Japan in 2011), and interpret these through the willingness of coastal communities to build protection measures along the shore and the impact that these can have on sustainable development. The existence of a “traditional tsunami culture” will be explored through an analysis of the existence of multi-layer safety system constructed by previous generations, and whether this is being preserved nowadays or past lessons are being forgotten., Hydraulic Engineering, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Since 2004, there is a growing awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities globally. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries such as Chile and Japan, many other places had virtually not heard about such phenomenon before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of major tsunamis in recent years has led to the emergence of a “tsunami culture” in many areas of the world, which has resulted in increased awareness, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. However, evacuation during a tsunami is still not successfully carried out by the different elements of society, pointing to lack of awareness, an over-reliance in defence mechanisms or lacking in the transmitting of knowledge from previous events. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis questionnaires carried out by the authors during their own field visits to the last three major events (Chile in 2009, Indonesia in 2010 and Japan in 2011), and interpret these through the willingness of coastal communities to build protection measures along the shore and the impact that these can have on sustainable development. The existence of a “traditional tsunami culture” will be explored through an analysis of the existence of multi-layer safety system constructed by previous generations, and whether this is being preserved nowadays or past lessons are being forgotten., Hydraulic Engineering, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries (such as Chile and Japan), in many other places they had been virtually unheard of before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of these events in recent years has led to the emergence of a “tsunami culture” in many areas of the world, which has resulted in increased awareness, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis questionnaires carried out by the authors during their own field visits to the last three major events (in Japan, Chile and Indonesia), and interpret these through the willingness of coastal communities to build protection measures along the shore and the impact that these can have on sustainable development., Hydraulic Engineering, Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Since 2004 there is a growing global awareness of the risks that tsunamis pose to coastal communities. Despite the fact that these events were already an intrinsic part of the culture of some countries (such as Chile and Japan), in many other places they had been virtually unheard of before 2004. Nevertheless, the frequent reoccurrence of these events in recent years has led to the emergence of a “tsunami culture” in many areas of the world, which has resulted in increased awareness, disaster preparedness and willingness of local populations to evacuate when the threat of these events arises. This paper will explore these cultural issues using as a basis questionnaires carried out by the authors during their own field visits to the last three major events (in Japan, Chile and Indonesia), and interpret these through the willingness of coastal communities to build protection measures along the shore and the impact that these can have on sustainable development., Hydraulic Engineering, Civil Engineering and Geosciences