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Jørgen Aarhaug, Nils Fearnley, Knut Johannes Liland Hartveit, Espen Johnsson, Price and competition in emerging shared e-scooter markets, Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 98, 2023, 101273, ISSN 0739-8859, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101273. The rapid deployment of shared dockless electric scooters (e-scooters) has resulted in attention from the public and regulators. Recurring issues include fleet size and the number of operators in the market. In this paper we study market development in two Norwegian cities and discuss how these experiences point towards future e-scooter regulation and ask if market regulation based on price competition in the e-scooter market is plausible. We study this by focusing on two natural experiments. First, we analyse the market entry of a low-cost e-scooter company in Drammen. We discuss how that entry impacted two incumbent e-scooter companies and the total market. Second, we look at the change in e-scooter regulation in Oslo in September 2021. This change represents a movement from a laissez faire market approach to a fleet cap of 8000 divided evenly between 12 different e-scooter companies. We study these experiments using data obtained from selected e-scooter operators (GPS location, start/stop time, e-scooter id), municipalities (fleet size, trips) and a web page tracking e-scooter fares. We find that competition between e-scooter companies varies across user segments, with trips made for traveling purposes being less price sensitive, and joy rides being more price sensitive. Also, we find that there are substantial advantages in being a large actor.

Jørgen Aarhaug, Nils Fearnley, Espen Johnsson, E-scooters and public transport – Complement or competition?, Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 98, 2023, 101279, ISSN 0739-8859, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101279. The rapid deployment of shared electric scooters (e-scooters) has resulted in much attention from the public and regulators. In this paper we look at what role e-scooters have in the mobility system in Oslo, Norway. Previous research suggests that e-scooters fill three main functions: first by serving areas underserved by other modes; second that they replace public transport (PT) trips where the generalised costs of PT are relatively high; and third that they can play an important role as first/last mile mode. In this paper we look at the interaction between e-scooters and PT. We ask: do shared e-scooters compete with or complement public transport? We analyse competition between e-scooters and other modes by combining four data-sources: trip data from e-scooter trips; travel planner data for alternative modes; a survey conducted among e-scooter users collected for the purpose of the study; and the regional travel survey, obtained from the PT authority in the greater Oslo area. We find that e-scooters are both competing with and complementing PT. For most e-scooter trips, the PT alternative would take twice as much time, or more. A sizable share of e-scooter trips are indeed access and egress to/from PT.

Meyer, S.F., Elvik, R. & Johnsson, E. Risk analysis for forecasting cyberattacks against connected and autonomous vehicles. J Transp Secur 14, 227–247 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12198-021-00236-4 A security risk analysis was conducted to identify possible cyberattacks against a future transport system consisting of autonomous and connected vehicles. Six scenarios were developed: joyriding, kidnapping, domestic abuse, autopilot manipulation, a large transport accident, and paralysis of the transport system. Even if it were possible to increase the difficulty of conducting such cyberattacks, it might be impossible to eliminate such attacks entirely. Measures that limit the consequences will therefore be necessary. Such measures include safety measures in vehicles to protect their occupants in traffic accidents and measures that make vehicles easier to remove in case they do not function.

Shared e-scooters may complement public transport by offering a solution to the first/last mile problem by easing, or increasing the radius of, access and egress trips. We have gathered real time e-scooter supply and demand data and performed a web survey of e-scooter users in Oslo, Norway. We find that e-scooters stand out as a popular first/last mile mode to many public transport passengers. E-scooters can play an even stronger such role if the two modes are integrated further.