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Background: A risk prediction model containing sex, smoking history, Barrett’s oesophagus length and presence of low-grade dysplasia was found to identify individuals at a higher risk of progression to oesophageal adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia. Aims: To externally validate the model predicting risk of progression from Barrett’s oesophagus to neoplasia and assess the predictive utility of additional factors. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among individuals from the population-based Northern Ireland Barrett’s register with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of Barrett’s oesophagus (with intestinal metaplasia) between 1993 and 2005. The association between a points based model and risk of progression to high-grade dysplasia or oesophageal adenocarcinoma until 2010 was assessed using Cox Proportional Hazards model. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROC), sensitivity and specificity.Results: We identified 1,198 individuals with Barrett’s oesophagus of whom 54 progressed. The model discriminated reasonably well between progressors and non-progressors, with an AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63-0.78). When categorised into low, intermediate and high risk groups, the AUROC was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.74). Compared to using data on dysplasia and segment length for risk stratification, the model resulted in a net reclassification improvement of 20.9%.Conclusions: This external validation provides further evidence that a model based on sex, smoking, Barrett’s segment length and baseline low-grade dysplasia may help to risk stratify patients after an initial diagnosis of Barrett’s oesophagus. The model also performed better than the use of low-grade dysplasia status alone for risk-stratification.

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Background Upper gastro-intestinal cancer (UGIC) includes malignancies in esophagus, stomach and small intestine, and represents some of the most frequent malignancies worldwide. The aim of the present analysis was to describe incidence, mortality and survival in UGIC patients in Denmark from 1980 to 2012 according to differences in age and time periods.Material and methods UGIC was defined as ICD-10 codes C15-C17. Data derived from the NORDCAN database with comparable data on cancer incidence mortality, prevalence and relative survival in the Nordic countries, where the Danish data were delivered from the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish Cause of Death Registry with follow-up for death or emigration until the end of 2013.Results The proportion of male patients over the age of 70 years diagnosed with esophageal cancer was constant over time (around 42%) but increased in females to 49% in 2012. Incidence rates increased with time and continued to rise in all ages. Mortality rates were clearly separated by age groups with increasing mortality rates by increasing age group for both sexes. Relative survival increased slowly over time in all age groups. The proportion of older male and female patients with stomach cancer increased to 50% and 54%, respectively, in 2012. Incidence rates decreased steadily with time, especially from 1980 to 1990 but continued to decrease in all age groups. Mortality rates decreased considerably from 1980 to 90 and have been almost constant during the last decade for both women and men. Relative survival increased modest over time in both genders and all age groups. In 2012, only 1471 persons were alive after a diagnosis of stomach cancer.Conclusion There is a need for clinical trials focusing on patients over the age of 70 years with co-existing comorbidity.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY/PRINCIPLES This study aimed to evaluate trends in the incidence of oesophageal and gastric cancer by anatomical location and histology using nationally representative Swiss data. METHODS We included all oesophageal and gastric cancers recorded in 10 Swiss population-based cancer registries 1982-2011. We calculated age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 person-years (PY) (European standard) for both cancer sites stratified by sex, language region (German, French-Italian), morphology and anatomical location. To assess time trends, we estimated annual percentage changes (APCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). RESULTS ASIR of oesophageal adenocarcinoma increased in both sexes and language regions (p

We analysed 3 case–control studies from Italy and Switzerland including 114 women with squamous cell oesophageal cancer and 425 controls. The multivariate odds ratio was 4.5 for heavy smoking and 5.4 for heavy alcohol drinking. Fruit intake, vegetable intake, oral contraceptive and HRT use were inversely related to oesophageal cancer. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.com

We investigated the association between occupational history and upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer risk in the ARCAGE European case-control study. The study included 1,851 patients with incident cancer of the oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx or esophagus and 1,949 controls. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for ever employment in 283 occupations and 172 industries, adjusting for smoking and alcohol. Men (1,457 cases) and women (394 cases) were analyzed separately and we incorporated a semi-Bayes adjustment approach for multiple comparisons. Among men, we found increased risks for occupational categories previously reported to be associated with at least one type of UADT cancer, including painters (OR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.01-3.00), bricklayers (1.58, 1.05-2.37), workers employed in the erection of roofs and frames (2.62, 1.08-6.36), reinforced concreters (3.46, 1.11-10.8), dockers (2.91, 1.05-8.05) and workers employed in the construction of roads (3.03, 1.23-7.46), general construction of buildings (1.44, 1.12-1.85) and cargo handling (2.60, 1.17-5.75). With the exception of the first three categories, risks both increased when restricting to long duration of employment and remained elevated after semi-Bayes adjustment. Increased risks were also found for loggers (3.56, 1.20-10.5) and cattle and dairy farming (3.60, 1.15-11.2). Among women, there was no clear evidence of increased risks of UADT cancer in association with occupations or industrial activities. This study provides evidence of an association between some occupational categories and UADT cancer risk among men. The most consistent findings, also supported by previous studies, were obtained for specific workers employed in the construction industry.

BACKGROUND: Data on the association between vitamin D and upper digestive tract neoplasms are limited. METHODS: In two case-control studies in Italy, we examined the relation between dietary vitamin D intake and squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus (SCCE; 304 cases) and oral/pharyngeal cancer (804 cases). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Adjusted ORs for SCCE and oral/pharyngeal cancer were 0.58 (95% CI 0.39-0.86) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.60-0.94), respectively, for the highest tertile of vitamin D intake. Using a reference group of those in the highest tertile of vitamin D who were never/former smokers, ORs were 8.7 (95% CI 4.1-18.7) for SCCE and 10.4 (95% CI 6.9-15.5) for oral/pharyngeal cancer among heavy smokers in the lowest vitamin D tertile; similarly, compared with those in the highest tertile of vitamin D who drank