Search

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is an important greenhouse gas (GHG) that also contributes to depletion of ozone in the stratosphere. Agricultural soils account for about 60% of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions. Most national GHG reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change assumes nitrogen (N) additions drive emissions during the growing season, but soil freezing and thawing during spring is also an important driver in cold climates. We show that both atmospheric inversions and newly implemented bottom-up modeling approaches exhibit large N 2 O pulses in the northcentral region of the United States during early spring and this increases annual N 2 O emissions from croplands and grasslands reported in the national GHG inventory by 6 to 16%. Considering this, emission accounting in cold climate regions is very likely underestimated in most national reporting frameworks. Current commitments related to the Paris Agreement and COP26 emphasize reductions of carbon compounds. Assuming these targets are met, the importance of accurately accounting and mitigating N 2 O increases once CO 2 and CH 4 are phased out. Hence, the N 2 O emission underestimate introduces additional risks into meeting long-term climate goals.

Increasing the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) has agronomic benefits and the potential to mitigate climate change. Previous regional predictions of SOC trends under climate change often ignore or do not explicitly consider the effect of crop adaptation (i.e., changing planting dates and varieties). We used the DayCent biogeochemical model to examine the effect of adaptation on SOC for corn and soybean production in the U.S. Corn Belt using climate data from three models. Without adaptation, yields of both corn and soybean tended to decrease and the decomposition of SOC tended to increase leading to a loss of SOC with climate change compared to a baseline scenario with no climate change. With adaptation, the model predicted a substantially higher crop yield. The increase in yields and associated carbon input to the SOC pool counteracted the increased decomposition in the adaptation scenarios, leading to similar SOC stocks under different climate change scenarios. Consequently, we found that crop management adaptation to changing climatic conditions strengthen agroecosystem resistance to SOC loss. However, there are differences spatially in SOC trends. The northern part of the region is likely to gain SOC while the southern part of the region is predicted to lose SOC.

Accurate estimation of crop net primary production (NPP) and yields is fundamental for regional analyses of agroecosystem dynamics using process‐based models. In this study, we simulated croplands in the contiguous U.S. using the DayCent ecosystem model with new production algorithms. Crops were divided into crop variety groups based on regional varieties of three major crops (corn, soybeans, and winter wheat) and generic parameter values that were generated for each group. These varieties have been developed through crop breeding programs and enhance production of major crop types in different temperature and precipitation regimes. NPP and yields for the three major crops were evaluated at the county level with reported yields from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The predictions of the multiyear average yields in all counties were more accurate than most other published results using process‐based models. DayCent predictions of yields produced an overall R2 of 0.54, 0.54, and 0.38 for corn, soybean, and winter wheat, respectively, with predictions for most counties within ±20% of the NASS reported yields. Our estimations of the total annual NPP for the three crops in the contiguous U.S. are 0.24, 0.09, and 0.06 Pg C yr(−1) for corn, soybean, and winter wheat, respectively. Together, they contribute 7.3% to 14.8% of the total NPP for all vegetation in the contiguous U.S. We conclude that crop variety groups capture heterogeneity in NPP for major crop types and can improve biogeochemical model predictions of NPP for croplands.

Although dedicated energy crops will probably be an important feedstock for future cellulosic bioenergy production, it is unknown how they can best be integrated into existing agricultural systems. Here we use the DayCent ecosystem model to simulate various scenarios for growing switchgrass in the heterogeneous landscape that surrounds a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol biorefinery in southwestern Kansas, and quantify the associated fuel production costs and lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We show that the GHG footprint of ethanol production can be reduced by up to 22 g of CO2 equivalent per megajoule (CO2e MJ–1) through careful optimization of the soils cultivated and corresponding fertilizer application rates (the US Renewable Fuel Standard requires a 56 gCO2e MJ−1 lifecycle emissions reduction for ‘cellulosic’ biofuels compared with conventional gasoline). This improved climate performance is realizable at modest additional costs, less than the current value of low-carbon fuel incentives. We also demonstrate that existing subsidized switchgrass plantings within this landscape probably achieve suboptimal GHG mitigation, as would landscape designs that strictly minimize the biomass collection radius or target certain marginal lands. Dedicated energy crops are an important feedstock for bioenergy systems, but uncertainties remain over how best to integrate them into agricultural landscapes. Here, the authors use high-resolution ecosystem modelling to explore how selection of the soils cultivated and fertilizer application rates affects feedstock costs and emissions footprints.

Soil carbon (C) sequestration in one of three main approaches to carbon dioxide removal and storage through management of terrestrial ecosystems. Soil C sequestration relies of the adoption of improved management practices that increase the amount of carbon stored as soil organic matter, primarily in cropland and grazing lands. These C sequestering practices act by increasing the rate of input of plant-derived residues to soils and/or by reducing the rates of turnover of organic C stocks already in the soil. In addition to carbon dioxide removal potential, increases in soil organic matter/soil C content are highly beneficial from the standpoint of soil health and soil fertility Practices to increase soil C stocks include well-known, proven techniques or “best management practices” (BMP) for building soil carbon. A second category includes what we refer to as frontier technologies for which significant technological and/or economic barriers exist today, but for which further R&D and/or economic incentives might offer the potential for greater sequestration over the longer term. We reviewed published estimates of global soil carbon sequestration potential, representing the biophysical potential for managed cropland and/or grassland systems to store additional carbon assuming widespread (near complete) adoption of BMPs. The majority of studies suggests that 4 to 5 GtCO2/y as an upper limit for global biophysical potential with near complete adoption of BMPs. In the longer-term, if frontier technologies are successfully deployed, the global estimate might grow to 8 GtCO2/y. There is a strong scientific basis for managing agricultural soils to act as a significant carbon (C) sink over the next several decades. A two-stage strategy, to first incentivize adoption of well developed, conventional soil C sequestering practices, while investing in R&D on new frontier technologies that could come on-line in the next 2-3 decades, could maximize benefits. Implementation of such policies will require robust, scientifically-sound measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems to track that policy goals are being met and that claimed increases in soil C stocks are real.