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Background: Preterm birth (birth at

ObjectivesCOVID-19 has been at the forefront of global concern since its emergence in December of 2019. Determining the social factors that drive case incidence is paramount to mitigating disease spread. We gathered data from the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) along with Democratic voting percentage to attempt to understand which county-level sociodemographic metrics had a significant correlation with case rate for COVID-19.MethodsWe used elastic net regression due to issues with variable collinearity and model overfitting. Our modelling framework included using the ten Health and Human Services regions as submodels for the two time periods 22 March 2020 to 15 June 2021 (prior to the Delta time period) and 15 June 2021 to 1 November 2021 (the Delta time period).ResultsStatistically, elastic net improved prediction when compared to multiple regression, as almost every HHS model consistently had a lower root mean square error (RMSE) and satisfactory R2 coefficients. These analyses show that the percentage of minorities, disabled individuals, individuals living in group quarters, and individuals who voted Democratic correlated significantly with COVID-19 attack rate as determined by Variable Importance Plots (VIPs).ConclusionsThe percentage of minorities per county correlated positively with cases in the earlier time period and negatively in the later time period, which complements previous research. In contrast, higher percentages of disabled individuals per county correlated negatively in the earlier time period. Counties with an above average percentage of group quarters experienced a high attack rate early which then diminished in significance after the primary vaccine rollout. Higher Democratic voting consistently correlated negatively with cases, coinciding with previous findings regarding a partisan divide in COVID-19 cases at the county level. Our findings can assist regional policymakers in distributing resources to more vulnerable counties in future pandemics based on SVI.

Agricultural crop insurance is an important component for mitigating farm risk, particularly given the potential for unexpected climatic events. Using a 2.8 million nationwide insurance claim dataset from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), this research study examines spatiotemporal variations of over 31,000 agricultural insurance loss claims across the 24-county region of the inland Pacific Northwest (iPNW) portion of the United States from 2001 to 2022. Wheat is the dominant insurance loss crop for the region, accounting for over USD 2.8 billion in indemnities, with over USD 1.5 billion resulting in claims due to drought (across the 22 year time period). While fruit production generates considerably lesser insurance losses (USD 400 million) as a primary result of freeze, frost, and hail, overall revenue ranks number one for the region, with USD 2 billion in sales, across the same time range. Principal components analysis of crop insurance claims showed distinct spatial and temporal differentiation in wheat and apples insurance losses using the range of damage causes as factor loadings. The first two factor loadings for wheat accounts for approximately 50 percent of total variance for the region, while a separate analysis of apples accounts for over 60 percent of total variance. These distinct orthogonal differences in losses by year and commodity in relationship to damage causes suggest that insurance loss analysis may serve as an effective barometer in gauging climatic influences.

We compared climatic relationships to insurance loss across the inland Pacific Northwest region of the United States, using a design matrix methodology, to identify optimum temporal windows for climate variables by county in relationship to wheat insurance loss due to drought. The results of our temporal window construction for water availability variables (precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and the Palmer drought severity index [PDSI]) identified spatial patterns across the study area that aligned with regional climate patterns, particularly with regards to drought-prone counties of eastern Washington. Using these optimum time-lagged correlational relationships between insurance loss and individual climate variables, along with commodity pricing, we constructed a regression-based random forest model for insurance loss prediction and evaluation of climatic feature importance. Our cross-validated model results indicated that PDSI was the most important factor in predicting total seasonal wheat/drought insurance loss, with wheat pricing and potential evapotranspiration having noted contributions. Our overall regional model had a $ {R}^2 $ of 0.49, and a RMSE of $30.8 million. Model performance typically underestimated annual losses, with moderate spatial variability in terms of performance between counties.

Early public health strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the United States relied on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as vaccines and therapeutic treatments were not yet available. Implementation of NPIs, primarily social distancing and mask wearing, varied widely between communities within the US due to variable government mandates, as well as differences in attitudes and opinions. To understand the interplay of trust, risk perception, behavioral intention, and disease burden, we developed a survey instrument to study attitudes concerning COVID-19 and pandemic behavioral change in three states: Idaho, Texas, and Vermont. We designed our survey (n = 1034) to detect whether these relationships were significantly different in rural populations. The best fitting structural equation models show that trust indirectly affects protective pandemic behaviors via health and economic risk perception. We explore two different variations of this social cognitive model: the first assumes behavioral intention affects future disease burden while the second assumes that observed disease burden affects behavioral intention. In our models we include several exogenous variables to control for demographic and geographic effects. Notably, political ideology is the only exogenous variable which significantly affects all aspects of the social cognitive model (trust, risk perception, and behavioral intention). While there is a direct negative effect associated with rurality on disease burden, likely due to the protective effect of low population density in the early pandemic waves, we found a marginally significant, positive, indirect effect of rurality on disease burden via decreased trust (p = 0.095). This trust deficit creates additional vulnerabilities to COVID-19 in rural communities which also have reduced healthcare capacity. Increasing trust by methods such as in-group messaging could potentially remove some of the disparities inferred by our models and increase NPI effectiveness.

Age and gender differences are prominent in the temperament literature, with the former particularly salient in infancy and the latter noted as early as the first year of life. This study represents a meta-analysis utilizing Infant Behavior Questionnaire-Revised (IBQ-R) data collected across multiple laboratories (N = 4438) to overcome limitations of smaller samples in elucidating links among temperament, age, and gender in early childhood. Algorithmic modeling techniques were leveraged to discern the extent to which the 14 IBQ-R subscale scores accurately classified participating children as boys (n = 2,298) and girls (n = 2,093), and into three age groups: youngest (< 24 weeks; n = 1,102), mid-range (24 to 48 weeks; n = 2,557), and oldest (> 48 weeks; n = 779). Additionally, simultaneous classification into age and gender categories was performed, providing an opportunity to consider the extent to which gender differences in temperament are informed by infant age. Results indicated that overall age group classification was more accurate than child gender models, suggesting that age-related changes are more salient than gender differences in early childhood with respect to temperament attributes. However, gender-based classification was superior in the oldest age group, suggesting temperament differences between boys and girls are accentuated with development. Fear emerged as the subscale contributing to accurate classifications most notably overall. This study leads infancy research and meta-analytic investigations more broadly in a new direction as a methodological demonstration, and also provides most optimal comparative data for the IBQ-R based on the largest and most representative dataset to date.