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We evaluated the population-level benefits of expanding treatment with the antiviral drug Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) in the United States for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections. Using a multiscale mathematical model, we found that treating 20% of symptomatic case-patients with Paxlovid over a period of 300 days beginning in January 2022 resulted in life and cost savings. In a low-transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 1.2), this approach could avert 0.28 million (95% CI 0.03–0.59 million) hospitalizations and save US $56.95 billion (95% CI US $2.62–$122.63 billion). In a higher transmission scenario (effective reproduction number of 3), the benefits increase, potentially preventing 0.85 million (95% CI 0.36–1.38 million) hospitalizations and saving US $170.17 billion (95% CI US $60.49–$286.14 billion). Our findings suggest that timely and widespread use of Paxlovid could be an effective and economical approach to mitigate the effects of COVID-19.

Background: Hong Kong enforced stringent travel restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the characteristics of imported COVID-19 cases is important for establishing evidence-based control measures. Methods: Retrospective cohort study summarising the characteristics of imported cases detected in Hong Kong between 13 November 2020 and 31 January 2022, when compulsory quarantine was implemented. Findings: A total of 2269 imported COVID-19 cases aged 0–85 years were identified, of which 48.6 % detected on arrival. A shorter median delay from arrival to isolation was observed in Delta and Omicron cases (3 days) than in ancestral strain and other variants cases (12 days; p

Summary: Background: Hong Kong contained COVID-19 for two years but experienced a large epidemic of Omicron BA.2 in early 2022 and endemic transmission of Omicron subvariants thereafter. We reflected on pandemic preparedness and responses by assessing COVID-19 transmission and associated disease burden in the context of implementation of various public health and social measures (PHSMs). Methods: We examined the use and impact of pandemic controls in Hong Kong by analysing data on more than 1.7 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and characterizing the temporal changes non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions implemented from January 2020 through to 30 December 2022. We estimated the daily effective reproductive number (Rt) to track changes in transmissibility and effectiveness of community-based measures against infection over time. We examined the temporal changes of pharmaceutical interventions, mortality rate and case-fatality risks (CFRs), particularly among older adults. Findings: Hong Kong experienced four local epidemic waves predominated by the ancestral strain in 2020 and early 2021 and prevented multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants from spreading in the community before 2022. Strict travel-related, case-based, and community-based measures were increasingly tightened in Hong Kong over the first two years of the pandemic. However, even very stringent measures were unable to contain the spread of Omicron BA.2 in Hong Kong. Despite high overall vaccination uptake (>70% with at least two doses), high mortality was observed during the Omicron BA.2 wave due to lower vaccine coverage (42%) among adults ≥65 years of age. Increases in antiviral usage and vaccination uptake over time through 2022 was associated with decreased case fatality risks. Interpretation: Integrated strict measures were able to reduce importation risks and interrupt local transmission to contain COVID-19 transmission and disease burden while awaiting vaccine development and rollout. Increasing coverage of pharmaceutical interventions among high-risk groups reduced infection-related mortality and mitigated the adverse health impact of the pandemic. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund.

We show that school closures reduced COVID-19 incidence rates in children by 31%–46% in Hong Kong in 2022. After school reopening accompanied by mask mandates, daily rapid testing, and vaccination requirements, school-reported cases correlated with community incidence rates. Safe school reopening is possible when appropriate preventive measures are used.

Summary: Background: Hong Kong followed a strict COVID-19 elimination strategy in 2020. We estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic responses on all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations and deaths in 2020. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis using negative binomial regression accounting for seasonality and long-term trend was used on weekly 2010–2020 data to estimate the change in hospitalization risk and excess mortality occurring both within and out of hospitals. Findings: In 2020, as compared to a 2010–2019 baseline, we observed an overall reduction in all-cause hospitalizations, and a concurrent increase in deaths. The overall hospitalization reduction (per 100,000 population) was 4809 (95% CI: 4692, 4926) in 2020, with respiratory diseases (632, 95% CI: 607, 658) and cardiovascular diseases (275, 95% CI: 264, 286) contributing most. The overall excess mortality (per 100,000 population) was 25 (95% CI: 23, 27) in 2020, mostly among individuals with pre-existing cardiovascular diseases (12, 95% CI: 11, 13). A reduction in excess in-hospital mortality (−10 per 100,000, 95% CI: −12, −8) was accompanied by an increase in excess out-of-hospital mortality (32, 95% CI: 29, 34). Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic might have caused indirect impact on population morbidity and mortality likely through changed healthcare seeking particularly in youngest and oldest individuals and those with cardiovascular diseases. Better healthcare planning is needed during public health emergencies with disruptions in healthcare services. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Collaborative Research Fund, AIR@InnoHK and RGC Senior Research Fellow Scheme, Hong Kong.

Our analysis of data collected from multiple epidemics in Hong Kong indicated a shorter serial interval and generation time of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. The age-specific case-fatality risk for Omicron BA.2.2 case-patients without complete primary vaccination was comparable to that of persons infected with ancestral strains in earlier waves.

A territory-wide retrospective observational study was conducted in Hong Kong between January 23 to April 22, 2020 to demonstrate changes in pediatric seizure-related accident and emergency department (A&E) visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. Parallel periods from 2015 to 2019 were used as control.All-cause A&E attendances in all paediatric age groups decreased significantly during the study period. Seizure-related attendances decreased across all pediatric age-groups in 2020 (RR 0.379, 95% CI 0.245–0.588), with a disproportionately large decrease in the 0–6 years age group (RR 0.303, 95% CI 0.174–0.526) compared with the 7–18 years age group (RR 0.534, 95% CI 0.393–0.719). Decrease in RTI-related A&E attendances was also more drastic in the 0–6 age group. The two time trends are congruent in the 0–6 years but not the 7–18 years age group. Such a trend is suggestive of the usefulness of infection control measures in seizure prevention, especially amongst young children.

Controlling transmission in restaurants is an important component of public health and social measures for coronavirus disease. We examined the effects of restaurant measures in Hong Kong. Our findings indicate that shortening operating hours did not have an effect on time-varying effective reproduction number when capacity was already reduced.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) causes infections in humans and animals. HEV have been identified in pig farms, markets and swine workers, but studies with parallel observations along the poultry and pork supply chains remains limited. This study aimed to characterize HEV infection risks in workers along the meat supply chain. Two rounds of cross-sectional surveys were performed among swine and poultry workers in pig and poultry farms, slaughterhouses, wholesale and retail live poultry markets, live pig markets and pork markets. Human sera from the workers and the general population were collected and tested for HEV specific IgM/IgG antibodies by commercial indirect-ELISA test kits. Risk factors of HEV seropositivity associated with different occupational settings were identified using logistic regression. 47.0% (156/332) of the swine workers and 40.2% (119/296) of the poultry workers were seropositive, compared to 26.1% (35/134) in the general population. Multivariable analysis showed that human HEV infection risk increased along the pork supply chain, with the highest risk at pig slaughterhouses (adjusted OR = 3.19, 95% CI = 1.49–6.88) and pork markets (adjusted OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.04–3.97), but no significant higher risk was observed among poultry workers. Swine occupational exposure is associated with HEV infection, especially in workers in pig slaughterhouses and pork markets. Strengthening control measures in these settings is important for HEV control and long term HEV elimination.

A fast-spreading severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant identified in the United Kingdom in December 2020 has raised international alarm. We analyzed data from 15 countries and estimated that the chance that this variant was imported into these countries by travelers from the United Kingdom by December 7 is >50%.

We report the use of environmental samples to assess avian influenza virus activity in chickens at live poultry markets in China. Results of environmental and chicken samples correlate moderately well. However, collection of multiple environmental samples from holding, processing, and selling areas is recommended to detect viruses expected to have low prevalence.

Background: Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed “travel bubbles” as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls. Methods: We developed a Bayesian framework to model disease progress of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of travel measures and inferred the origin-specific disease prevalence among inbound travellers, using data on passengers arriving in Hong Kong and laboratory-confirmed imported cases. We estimated the origin-specific risks of releasing infectious travellers under different control strategies and traveller volumes. We also estimated the risk of having released infectious travellers when a resurgence occurs in departure locations with no imported cases during a certain period. Findings: Under the then strict controls of 14-day quarantine and testing on day 12, the Philippines imposed the greatest importation risk among the studied countries/regions (95.8% of releasing at least one infectious traveller, 95% credible interval (CrI), 94.8-96.6%). This was higher than that from low prevalence countries/regions (e.g., 23.4%, 95% CrI, 21.6-25.3% for Taiwan) if controls relaxed (i.e., 7-day quarantine and test on day 5). Increased traveller volumes and resurgence in departure locations with low prevalence under relaxed controls did not impose a greater importation risk than high prevalence locations under stricter controls. Interpretation: Moderate relaxation of control measures for travellers arriving from low prevalence locations did not impose higher risks of community outbreaks than strict controls on travellers from high prevalence locations. Funding: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

Background: The timing of administration of agents and use of combination treatments in COVID-19 remain unclear. We assessed the effectiveness of therapeutics in cohorts in Hong Kong SAR and Anhui, China. Methods: We conducted propensity-score analysis of 4771 symptomatic patients from Hong Kong between 21st January and 6th December 2020, and 648 symptomatic patients from Anhui between 1st January and 27th February 2020. We censored all observations as at 13st December 2020. Time from hospital admission to discharge, and composite outcome of death, invasive mechanical ventilation or intensive care unit admission across 1) all therapeutic options including lopinavir-ritonavir, ribavirin, umifenovir, interferon-alpha-2b, interferon-beta-1b, corticosteroids, antibiotics, and Chinese medicines, and 2) four interferon-beta-1b combination treatment groups were investigated. Findings: Interferon-beta-1b was associated with an improved composite outcome (OR=0.55, 95%CI 0.38, 0.80) and earlier discharge (−8.8 days, 95%CI −9.7, −7.9) compared to those not administered interferon-beta-1b. Oral ribavirin initiated within 7 days from onset was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome in Hong Kong (OR=0.51, 95%CI 0.29, 0.90). Lopinavir-ritonavir, intravenous ribavirin, umifenovir, corticosteroids, interferon-alpha-2b, antibiotics or Chinese medicines failed to show consistent clinical benefit. Interferon-beta-1b co-administered with ribavirin was associated with improved composite outcome (OR=0.50, 95%CI 0.32, 0.78) and earlier discharge (−2.35 days, 95%CI −3.65, −1.06) compared to interferon-beta-1b monotherapy. Interpretation: Our findings support the early administration of interferon-beta-1b alone or in combination with oral ribavirin for COVID-19 patients. Funding: Hong Kong Health and Medical Research Fund; Hong Kong Innovation and Technology Commission; Chinese Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

We used national sentinel surveillance data in China for 2005–2016 to examine the lineage-specific epidemiology of influenza B. Influenza B viruses circulated every year with relatively lower activity than influenza A. B/Yamagata was more frequently detected in adults than in children.

We compared the detection frequency of avian influenza H7 subtypes at live poultry markets in Guangdong Province, China, before and after the introduction of a bivalent H5/H7 vaccine in poultry. The vaccine was associated with a 92% reduction in H7 positivity rates among poultry and a 98% reduction in human H7N9 cases.

During 2016 in Guangzhou, China, we detected infectious avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in 39.8% of samples from chicken carcasses slaughtered at live poultry markets but none from carcasses supplied to supermarkets by facilities bypassing live poultry markets. Promoting supply chains with high biosecurity may reduce the risk for zoonotic AIV transmission.

In winter 2018, schools in Hong Kong were closed 1 week before the scheduled Chinese New Year holiday to mitigate an influenza B virus epidemic. The intervention occurred after the epidemic peak and reduced overall incidence by ≈4.2%. School-based vaccination programs should be implemented to more effectively reduce influenza illnesses.

We investigated the kinetics of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) neutralizing and spike protein antibody titers over the course of 1 year in 11 patients who were confirmed by reverse transcription PCR to have been infected during the outbreak in South Korea in 2015. Robust antibody responses were detected in all survivors who had severe disease; responses remained detectable, albeit with some waning, for

Since March 2013, a novel influenza A(H7N9) virus has caused 3 epidemic waves of human infection in mainland China. We analyzed data from patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H7N9) virus infection to estimate the risks for severe outcomes after hospitalization across the 3 waves. We found that hospitalized patients with confirmed infections in waves 2 and 3 were younger and more likely to be residing in small cities and rural areas than were patients in wave 1; they also had a higher risk for death, after adjustment for age and underlying medical conditions. Risk for death among hospitalized patients during waves 2 and 3 was lower in Jiangxi and Fujian Provinces than in eastern and southern provinces. The variation in risk for death among hospitalized case-patients in different areas across 3 epidemic waves might be associated with differences in case ascertainment, changes in clinical management, or virus genetic diversity.

We investigated the kinetics of serologic responses to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection by using virus neutralization and MERS-CoV S1 IgG ELISA tests. In most patients, robust antibody responses developed by the third week of illness. Delayed antibody responses with the neutralization test were associated with more severe disease.

We assessed the effect of closing live poultry markets in China on influenza A(H7N9) virus detection and viability. Intensive sampling was carried out before, during, and after a 2-week citywide market closure; the markets were cleaned and disinfected at the beginning of the closure period. Swab samples were collected at different sites within the markets and tested for H7N9 by real-time reverse transcription PCR and culture. During the closure, H7N9 viral RNA detection and isolation rates in retail markets decreased by 79% (95% CI 64%–88%) and 92% (95% CI 58%–98%), respectively. However, viable H7N9 virus could be cultured from wastewater samples collected up to 2 days after the market closure began. Our findings indicates that poultry workers and the general population are constantly exposed to H7N9 virus at these markets and that market closure and disinfection rapidly reduces the amount of viable virus.

Targeted surveillance for influenza A(H7N9) identified 21 cases of infection with this virus in Guangzhou, China, during April 1, 2013–March 7, 2014. The spectrum of illness ranged from severe pneumonia to asymptomatic infection. Epidemiologic findings for a family cluster of 1 severe and 1 mild case suggested limited person-to-person transmission of this virus.

In Hong Kong, kindergartens and primary schools were closed when local transmission of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was identified. Secondary schools closed for summer vacation shortly afterwards. By fitting a model of reporting and transmission to case data, we estimated that transmission was reduced ≈25% when secondary schools closed.

We analyzed ≈12 years of surveillance data on avian influenza in Hong Kong live poultry markets. A ban on keeping live poultry overnight in these markets reduced virus isolation rates by 84% in chickens (p = 0.006) and 100% (p = 0.01) in minor poultry.

In winter 2008, kindergartens and primary schools in Hong Kong were closed for 2 weeks after media coverage indicated that 3 children had died, apparently from influenza. We examined prospective influenza surveillance data before, during, and after the closure. We did not find a substantial effect on community transmission.

Live poultry markets (LPMs) are a recognized source of influenza viruses. Since 2001 and 2003, respectively, a first and second monthly “rest-day” has been implemented in Hong Kong’s LPMs, when stalls are cleared of unsold poultry and disinfected. We assessed the incremental effectiveness of each rest-day and the banning of live quail sales in 2002 in reducing (H9N2) subtype isolation rates for chickens and minor poultry, by using a multivariable Poisson generalized linear model. There was a 58% reduction (p = 0.001) in virus isolation after 1 monthly rest-day in minor poultry compared with 27% (p = 0.22) in chickens. Combining 1 rest-day with the removal of quails further reduced virus isolation in chickens but not in minor poultry. However, an additional rest-day each month did not appear to affect isolation rates for either species.