1. Validation of the ARIC prediction model for sudden cardiac death in the European population
- Author
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Sabrina J.G.C. Welten, Sharon Remmelzwaal, Marieke T. Blom, Amber A. van der Heijden, Giel Nijpels, Hanno L. Tan, Irene van Valkengoed, Jean-Philippe Empana, Xavier Jouven, Frederik Nybye Ågesen, Peder Emil Warming, Jacob Tfelt-Hansen, Eva Prescott, Reza Jabbari, Petra J.M. Elders, Epidemiology and Data Science, APH - Health Behaviors & Chronic Diseases, APH - Methodology, General practice, and ACS - Diabetes & metabolism
- Subjects
Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine - Abstract
Background: Sudden cardiac death is responsible for 10% to 20% of all deaths in Europe. The current study investigates how well the risk of sudden cardiac death can be predicted. To this end, we validated a previously developed prediction model for sudden cardiac death from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (USA). Methods: Data from participants of the Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) (n=9988) was used to externally validate the previously developed prediction model for sudden cardiac death. The model's performance was assessed through discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit (HL) statistics suited for censored data and visual inspection of calibration plots. Additional validation was performed using data from the Hoorn Study (N=2045), employing the same methods. Results: During ten years of follow-up of CCHS participants (mean age: 58.7 years, 56.2% women), 425 experienced SCD (4.2%). The prediction model showed good discrimination for sudden cardiac death risk (C-statistic: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.79-0.83). Calibration was robust (HL statistic: P=0.8). Visual inspection of the calibration plot showed that the calibration could be improved. Sensitivity was 89.8%, and specificity was 60.6%. The positive and negative predictive values were 10.1% and 99.2%. Model performance was similar in the Hoorn Study (C-statistic: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.77-0.85 and the HL statistic: 1.00). Conclusion: Our study showed that the previously developed prediction model in North American adults performs equally well in identifying those at risk for sudden cardiac death in a general North-West European population. However, the positive predictive value is low.
- Published
- 2023