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Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a valuable tool for inferring suitable environmental conditions and estimating species’ geographic distributions. ENM is widely used to assess the potential effects of climate change on species distributions; however, the choice of modeling algorithm introduces substantial uncertainty, especially since future projections cannot be properly validated. In this study, we evaluated the performance of seven popular modeling algorithms—Bioclim, generalized additive models (GAM), generalized linear models (GLM), boosted regression trees (BRT), Maxent, random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM)—in transferring ENM across time, using Mexican endemic rodents as a model system. We used a retrospective approach, transferring models from the near past (1950–1979) to more recent conditions (1980–2009) and vice versa, to evaluate their performance in both forecasting and hindcasting. Consistent with previous studies, our results highlight that input data quality and algorithm choice significantly impact model accuracy, but most importantly, we found that algorithm performance varied between forecasting and hindcasting. While no single algorithm outperformed the others in both temporal directions, RF generally showed better performance for forecasting, while Maxent performed better in hindcasting, though it was more sensitive to small sample sizes. Bioclim consistently showed the lowest performance. These findings underscore that not all species or algorithms are suited for temporal projections. Therefore, we strongly recommend conducting a thorough evaluation of the data quality—in terms of quantity and potential biases—of the species of interest. Based on this assessment, appropriate algorithm(s) should be carefully selected and rigorously tested before proceeding with temporal transfers.

IntroductionSocial-ecological systems (SES) recognize the intricate relationship between human activities and the environment and advocate for comprehensive approaches to address complex environmental issues. This study investigates the factors influencing whale watching, particularly the gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) in northern Mexico, after significant recovery following overexploitation. Despite reaching a peak in 2015, the eastern North Pacific gray whales experienced unusual mortality events (UME), the most recent from 2019 to 2023, leading to a population decline and historically low calf production in 2022. This decline is evident in the reduced presence of whales and calves in winter breeding lagoons. Concurrently, whale watching has become a significant tourist attraction in these areas.MethodsOur objective was to develop a mental model of the SES of gray whale watching, integrating ecological and socioeconomic data to identify key variables and interactions that support system resilience. From an ecological perspective, we analyzed the long-term temporal trends of eight years of gray whale counts in the southernmost breeding and nursing lagoons within the Bahía Magdalena–Bahía Almejas Complex, Mexico. Additionally, we incorporated the current discussion in the literature about the potential impact of global climate change on gray whale populations. In the socioeconomic subsystem, we used participatory methods, including interviews, surveys, and workshops with government officials, tourism operators, and visitors. We also added on-site assessments of compliance with welfare regulations to understand tourism dynamics. ResultsOur findings identified as main external stressors the changes in ice levels in feeding areas and sea warming in breeding areas, and as internal stressors the compliance with official regulations and the number of vessels observing whales at the same time. The key socioeconomic factor of the system was tourist satisfaction, influenced by factors such as the quality of the information provided by operators. DiscussionUltimately, our mental model provides a framework for further exploration of relevant interactions and trajectories, offering insights for developing effective management strategies.

Abstract Species abundance patterns are influenced by a myriad of factors, including habitat availability and ecological niche characteristics. However, the evidence concerning the specific impact factors such as niche position and niche breadth on mean and maximum abundances in vertebrates at a broad geographical scale remains inconclusive. In this study, we investigated the influence of niche position and breadth on the abundance of 47 species of birds belonging to the Parulidae family, commonly known as New World Warblers. We obtained data on abundance and presence records spanning the reproductive distribution of these species and employed the outlying mean index analysis to calculate niche position and niche breadth. We assessed the relationship between abundance metrics and niche descriptors using phylogenetic regressions to account for the non‐independence resulting from phylogenetic ancestry. Initially, we developed individual models for each predictor and subsequently formulated a multi‐predictor model encompassing niche position, niche breadth, and their interaction. Our findings revealed a negative relationship between niche position and both mean and maximum abundance, while niche breadth exhibited a positive relationship with these niche characteristics. Notably, the results of the multi‐predictor models indicated that niche position exerted the most substantial influence on both mean and maximum abundance. Additionally, the interaction between niche position and niche breadth had the most positive and significant contribution to mean population abundance. This study underscores the need for future research in other vertebrates to delve into the mechanisms underlying these patterns. Such endeavors will not only enhance our understanding of ecological dynamics but also equip us with predictive capabilities to anticipate population responses to environmental changes effectively.

Mexico is the center of origin and genetic diversity of upland cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.), the most important source of natural fiber in the world. Currently, wild and domesticated populations (including genetically modified [GM] varieties) occur in this country and gene flow among them has shaped the species’ genetic diversity and structure, setting a complex and challenging scenario for its conservation. Moreover, recent gene flow from GM cultivars to wild Mexican cotton populations has been reported since 2011. In situ conservation of G. hirsutum requires knowledge about the extent of its geographic distribution, both wild and domesticated, as well as the possible routes and mechanisms that contribute to gene flow between the members of the species wild-to-domesticated continuum (i.e., the primary gene pool). However, little is known about the distribution of feral populations that could facilitate gene flow by acting as bridges. In this study, we analyzed the potential distribution of feral cotton based on an ecological niche modeling approach and discussed its implications in the light of the distribution of wild and domesticated cotton. Then, we examined the processes that could be leading to the escape of seeds from the cultivated fields. Our results indicate that the climatic suitability of feral plants in the environmental and geographic space is broad and overlaps with areas of wild cotton habitat and crop fields, suggesting a region that could bridge cultivated cotton and its wild relatives by allowing gene flow between them. This study provides information for management efforts focused on the conservation of wild populations, native landraces, and non-GM domesticated cotton at its center of origin and genetic diversity.

Spatial assessments of historical climate change provide information that can be used by scientists to analyze climate variation over time and evaluate, for example, its effects on biodiversity, in order to focus their research and conservation efforts. Despite the fact that there are global climatic databases available at high spatial resolution, they represent a short temporal window that impedes evaluating historical changes of climate and their impacts on biodiversity. To fill this gap, we developed climate gridded surfaces for Mexico for three periods that cover most of the 20th and early 21st centuries: t1-1940 (1910-1949), t2-1970 (1950-1979) and t3-2000 (1980-2009), and used these interpolated surfaces to describe how climate has changed over time, both countrywide and in its 19 biogeographic provinces. Results from our characterization of climate change indicate that the mean annual temperature has increased by nearly 0.2°C on average across the whole country from t2-1970 to t3-2000. However, changes have not been spatially uniform: Nearctic provinces in the north have suffered higher temperature increases than southern tropical regions. Central and southern provinces cooled at the beginning of the 20th century but warmed consistently since the 1970s. Precipitation increased between t1-1940 and t2-1970 across the country, more notably in the northern provinces, and it decreased between t2-1970 and t3-2000 in most of the country. Results on the historical climate conditions in Mexico may be useful for climate change analyses for both environmental and social sciences. Nonetheless, our climatology was based on information from climate stations for which 9.4-36.2% presented inhomogeneities over time probably owing to non-climatic factors, and climate station density changed over time. Therefore, the estimated changes observed in our analysis need to be interpreted cautiously.

Demographic analyses and ecological niche modeling (ENM) are two popular tools that address species persistence in relation to environmental conditions. Classic demography provides detailed information about the mechanisms that allow a population to grow or remain stable at a local scale, while ENM infers distributions from conditions suitable for species persistence at geographic scales by relating species' occurrences with environmental variables. By integrating these two tools, we may better understand population processes that determine species persistence at a geographic scale. To test this idea, we developed a model that relates climate to demography of the cactus Opuntia rastrera using 15 years of data from one locality. Using this model we determined the geographic area where populations would have positive growth rates given its climatic conditions. The climate-dependent demographic model showed poor performance as a distribution model, but it was helpful in defining some mechanisms that determine species' distributions. For instance, high rainfall had a negative impact on the population growth rate by increasing mortality. Rainy areas to the west of the distribution of O. rastrera were identified as unsuitable both by our climate-dependent demographic model and by a popular ENM algorithm (MaxEnt), suggesting that distribution is constrained by excessive rains due to high mortality. Areas projected to be climatically suitable by MaxEnt were not related with higher population growth rates. Instead, we found a strong correlation between environmental distance to the niche centroid (center of the niche hypervolume, where optimal conditions may occur) and population growth rate, meaning that the niche centroid approach is helpful in finding high-fitness areas.

Abstract Background Understanding the environmental and anthropogenic factors influencing the probability of occurrence of the marine parasitic species is fundamental for determining the circumstances under which they can act as bioindicators of environmental impact. The aim of this study was to determine whether physicochemical variables, polyaromatic hydrocarbons or sewage discharge affect the probability of occurrence of the larval cestode Oncomegas wageneri, which infects the shoal flounder, Syacium gunteri, in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Methods The study area included 162 sampling sites in the southern Gulf of Mexico and covered 288,205 km2, where the benthic sediments, water and the shoal flounder individuals were collected. We used the boosted generalised additive models (boosted GAM) and the MaxEnt to examine the potential statistical relationships between the environmental variables (nutrients, contaminants and physicochemical variables from the water and sediments) and the probability of the occurrence of this parasite. The models were calibrated using all of the sampling sites (full area) with and without parasite occurrences (n = 162) and a polygon area that included sampling sites with a depth of 1500 m or less (n = 134). Results Oncomegas wageneri occurred at 29/162 sampling sites. The boosted GAM for the full area and the polygon area accurately predicted the probability of the occurrence of O. wageneri in the study area. By contrast, poor probabilities of occurrence were obtained with the MaxEnt models for the same areas. The variables with the highest frequencies of appearance in the models (proxies for the explained variability) were the polyaromatic hydrocarbons of high molecular weight (PAHH, 95 %), followed by a combination of nutrients, spatial variables and polyaromatic hydrocarbons of low molecular weight (PAHL, 5 %). Conclusions The contribution of the PAHH to the variability was explained by the fact that these compounds, together with N and P, are carried by rivers that discharge into the ocean, which enhances the growth of hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria and the productivity and number of the intermediate hosts. Our results suggest that sites with PAHL/PAHH ratio values up to 1.89 promote transmission based on the high values of the prevalence of O. wageneri in the study area. In contrast, PAHL/PAHH ratio values ≥ 1.90 can be considered harmful for the transmission stages of O. wageneri and its hosts (copepods, shrimps and shoal flounders). Overall, the results indicate that the PAHHs affect the probability of occurrence of this helminth parasite in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Functional diversity represents a measure of diversity that incorporates the role of species in an ecosystem, and therefore its dynamics and resilience. Assessing its drivers and spatial variation represents an important step forward in our understanding of functional ecosystem dynamics and it is also necessary to achieve a comprehensive conservation planning. In this paper, we assessed mammal functional diversity for the 218 ecoregions within the Neotropical realm. We evaluated the overall influence and spatial variation of species richness, ecoregion extent, intervention and species at risk on functional diversity. Using ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression modeling approaches, we found that intervened areas and threatened and non-threatened species are the most influential overall drivers of functional diversity. However, we also detected that these variables do not operate equally across scales. Our local analyses indicated both that the variation explained and local coefficients vary spatially depending on the ecoregion and major habitat type. As estimates of functional diversity are based on current distribution of all mammals, negative influence of intervened areas and positive influence of non-threatened species may reflect a potential degradation of functional processes for some ecosystems. Most generally, the negative influence of intervention together with the influence of threatened species indicates that some areas are currently more susceptible to functional diversity loss. Our results help to pinpoint key areas requiring urgent conservation action to reduce natural land-cover loss and areas where threatened species play influential roles on ecosystem functioning.

A ntes de realizar el modelado de la distribución potencial de una especie, se recomienda ha - cer una preselección de covariables pues la redundancia o variables irrelevantes pueden in - ducir sesgos en la mayoría de los modelos. En este estudio, se propuso un método automati - zado para la selección a priori de covariables utilizadas en el modelado. Se emplearon cinco especies típicas de la flora mexicana ( Catopheria chiapensis, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus martinezii, Telanthopora grandifolia y Viburnum acutifolium ) y 56 covariables ambientales. Se generaron matrices de presencia-ausencia para cada especie y se analizaron empleando regresión logística; el modelo resul - tante de cada especie se evaluó mediante un remuestreo bootstrap. La distribución de las cinco especies se modeló usando el algoritmo de máxima entropía y con el empleo de tres conjuntos de covariables ambientales. La precisión de los modelos generados se evaluó con intervalos de confianza de cada curva característica operativa del receptor (COR). Los intervalos de confianza de las curvas COR resultantes no mostraron diferencia significativa ( P < 0.05) entre los tres modelos predictivos generados; sin em - bargo, el modelo más parsimonioso se obtuvo con el método propuesto.

Background Faunal change is a basic and fundamental element in ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology, yet vanishingly few detailed studies have documented such changes rigorously over decadal time scales. This study responds to that gap in knowledge, providing a detailed analysis of Digital Accessible Knowledge of the birds of Mexico, designed to marshal DAK to identify sites that were sampled and inventoried rigorously prior to the beginning of major global climate change (1980). Methods We accumulated DAK records for Mexican birds from all relevant online biodiversity data portals. After extensive cleaning steps, we calculated completeness indices for each 0.05° pixel across the country; we also detected ‘hotspots’ of sampling, and calculated completeness indices for these broader areas as well. Sites were designated as well-sampled if they had completeness indices above 80% and >200 associated DAK records. Results We identified 100 individual pixels and 20 broader ‘hotspots’ of sampling that were demonstrably well-inventoried prior to 1980. These sites are catalogued and documented to promote and enable resurvey efforts that can document events of avifaunal change (and non-change) across the country on decadal time scales. Conclusions Development of repeated surveys for many sites across Mexico, and particularly for sites for which historical surveys document their avifaunas prior to major climate change processes, would pay rich rewards in information about distributional dynamics of Mexican birds.

A widespread biogeographic pattern in nature is that population abundance is not uniform across the geographic range of species: most occurrence sites have relatively low numbers, whereas a few places contain orders of magnitude more individuals. The Bolson tortoise Gopherus flavomarginatus is endemic to a small region of the Chihuahuan Desert in Mexico, where habitat deterioration threatens this species with extinction. In this study we combined field burrows counts and the approach for modeling species abundance based on calculating the distance to the niche centroid to obtain range-wide abundance estimates. For the Bolson tortoise, we found a robust, negative relationship between observed burrows abundance and distance to the niche centroid, with a predictive capacity of 71%. Based on these results we identified four priority areas for the conservation of this microendemic and threatened tortoise. We conclude that this approach may be a useful approximation for identifying key areas for sampling and conservation efforts in elusive and rare species.

Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).

The species Zea mays includes both domesticated maize (ssp. mays) and its closest wild relatives known as the teosintes. While genetic and archaeological studies have provided a well-established history of Z. mays evolution, there is currently minimal description of its current and past distribution. Here, we implemented species distribution modeling using paleoclimatic models of the last interglacial (LI; ∼135,000 BP) and the last glacial maximum (LGM; ∼21,000 BP) to hindcast the distribution of Zea mays subspecies over time and to revisit current knowledge of its phylogeography and evolutionary history.Using a large occurrence data set and the distribution modeling MaxEnt algorithm, we obtained robust present and past species distributions of the two widely distributed teosinte subspecies (ssps. parviglumis and mexicana) revealing almost perfect complementarity, stable through time, of their occupied distributions. We also investigated the present distributions of primitive maize landraces, which overlapped but were broader than those of the teosintes. Our data reinforced the idea that little historical gene flow has occurred between teosinte subspecies, but maize has served as a genetic bridge between them. We observed an expansion of teosinte habitat from the LI, consistent with population genetic data. Finally, we identified locations potentially serving as refugia for the teosintes throughout epochs of climate change and sites that should be targeted in future collections.The restricted and highly contrasting ecological niches of the wild teosintes differ substantially from domesticated maize. Variables determining the distributions of these taxa can inform future considerations of local adaptation and the impacts of climate change. Our assessment of the changing distributions of Zea mays taxa over time offers a unique glimpse into the history of maize, highlighting a strategy for the study of domestication that may prove useful for other species.