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We contribute to the literature on the effect of taxes on the locational choices of wealthy individuals by examining the geographical sensitivity of the Forbes 400 richest Americans to state estate taxes. Though we find billionaires’ effective tax rates are only about half the statutory rate, their residential choices are highly sensitive to these taxes, as 35 percent of local billionaires leave states with an estate tax. This tax-induced mobility causes a large reduction in the aggregate tax base. Nonetheless, we find that the revenue benefit of an estate tax exceeds the cost for the vast majority of states. (JEL H24, H31, H71, R23)

We examine the impact of government funding for R&D—and defense-related R&D in particular—on privately conducted R&D, and its ultimate effect on productivity growth. We estimate longitudinal models that relate privately funded R&D to lagged government-funded R&D using industry-country level data from OECD countries and firm level data from France. To deal with the potentially endogenous allocation of government R&D funds we use changes in predicted defense R&D as an instrumental variable. In many OECD countries, expenditures for defense-related R&D represent by far the most important form of public subsidies for innovation. In both datasets, we uncover evidence of “crowding in” rather than “crowding out,” as increases in government-funded R&D for an industry or a firm result in significant increases in private sector R&D in that industry or firm. On average, a 10% increase in government-financed R&D generates a 5% to 6% additional increase in privately funded R&D. We also find evidence of international spillovers, as increases in government-funded R&D in a particular industry and country raise private R&D in the same industry in other countries. Finally, we find that increases in private R&D induced by increases in defense R&D result in productivity gains.

I testi dell’oratoria quattrocentesca in volgare pongono diverse questioni in merito alla loro autorialità, in quanto tramandati spesso anonimi o con false attribuzioni e soggetti a fenomeni di plagio. Il presente contributo intende affrontare questi problemi attraverso l’esame di tre discorsi attribuiti a Bono Boni, banchiere fiorentino della metà del Quattrocento: si analizzerà la loro tradizione manoscritta e il reticolo delle fonti, con particolare attenzione a due citazioni, una petrarchesca e una boccacciana, che vi compaiono, per indagare le tracce di cultura umanistica e mercantile che in essi si esprimono e interrogarsi sulla fisionomia del codice di «pistole e dicerie» su cui Bono affinò probabilmente la sua tecnica retorica. The texts of fifteenth-century vernacular oratory pose several questions regarding their authorship, as they are often handed down anonymously or with false attributions and subject to plagiarism. The present contribution intends to address these problems through the examination of three speeches attributed to Bono Boni, a Florentine banker of the mid-15th century: their manuscript tradition and the network of sources will be analyzed, with particular attention to two quotations, one Petrarchan and one Boccaccian, that appear in them, in order to investigate the traces of humanistic and mercantile culture expressed in them and to question the physiognomy of the codex of «pistole e dicerie» on which Bono probably refined his rhetorical technique.

We first estimate the direct effects on local workers' earnings and housing costs from increases in local labor demand caused by gains in city-level manufacturing productivity. We find that local workers benefit from productivity growth, even after subtracting increases in housing costs. These gains are larger for local less-educated workers, such that productivity growth reduces local inequality. We then propose and implement a new transparent method of estimating indirect effects of local productivity growth on earnings and housing costs of workers in other cities. We find that these general-equilibrium effects are economically important and disproportionately benefit college-educated workers.

L’articolo si concentra sull’ignoto corrispondente petrarchesco della Fam. xvii 8, frate Matteo da Como : si avanza un’inedita proposta di identificazione di tale destinatario, ricostruendone la biografia e i rapporti con personalità vicine a Petrarca, e si analizzano le ricadute di questa identificazione sull’esegesi della Familiare a lui inviata. Si dà notizia, inoltre, del ritrovamento di un testimone della redazione γ di questa epistola, finora nota solo in redazione canonica : si fornisce una descrizione del codice e se ne discutono le varianti testuali. The article focuses on the unknown correspondent of Petrarch’s Fam. xvii 8, friar Matteo da Como : a new proposal of identification of this addressee is made, and his biography is reconstructed, along with his relations with personalities close to Petrarch. The article then analyses the consequences of this identification on the interpretation of the Familiare sent to him. It also reports the discovery of a manuscript containing the γ redaction of this epistle, so far known only in canonical redaction : it provides a description of the codex and discusses its textual variants.

L’articolo si interroga sul metodo più corretto per valutare la presenza di varianti autoriali all’interno delle opere boccacciane, prendendo in esame l’ipotesi della seconda redazione della Comedia delle ninfe fiorentine, testimoniata in via esclusiva dall’edizione del 1520 curata da Girolamo Claricio. Un nuovo esame della posizione stemmatica della stampa e di alcune lezioni particolari da essa tramandate sembra suggerire la paternità clariciana degli interventi innovativi, inquadrabili all’interno del progetto culturale portato avanti dall’editore imolese. Si discute inoltre del rapporto della stampa con un presunto antigrafo copiato da Francesco d’Amaretto Mannelli e dell’uso che Claricio fa del nome dell’illustre copista a sostegno delle sue posizioni nel coevo dibattito sulla lingua. This article investigates the correct method to evaluate the presence of authorial variants in Boccaccio’s works, focusing on the hypothetical second version of the Comedia delle ninfe fiorentine, transmitted only by the print published by Girolamo Claricio in 1520. A new exam of its stemmatic position and of some of its peculiar variants suggests to ascribe them to Claricio and his cultural project. Furthermore, the article discusses the connection between the print and its supposed antigraph copied by Francesco d’Amaretto Mannelli, whose name is used by Claricio to strengthen his position in the contemporary debate on language.

Italy and Germany have similar geographical differences in firm productivity—with the North more productive than the South in Italy and the West more productive than the East in Germany—but have adopted different models of wage bargaining. Italy sets wages based on nationwide contracts that allow for limited local wage adjustments, while Germany has moved toward a more flexible system that allows for local bargaining. We find that Italy exhibits limited geographical wage differences in nominal terms and almost no relationship between local productivity and local nominal wages, while Germany has larger geographic wage differences and a tighter link between local wages and local productivity. As a consequence, in Italy, low-productivity provinces have higher non-employment rates than high-productivity provinces, because employers cannot lower wages, while in Germany the relationship between non-employment and productivity is significantly weaker. We conclude that the Italian system has significant costs in terms of forgone aggregate earnings and employment because it generates a spatial equilibrium where workers queue for jobs in the South and remain unemployed while waiting. If Italy adopted the German system, aggregate employment and earnings would increase by 11.04% and 7.45%, respectively. Our findings are relevant for other European countries.

We report the uncommon clinical case of our patient, an 83-year-old woman with Alzheimer disease, who acquired a potentially fatal tropical infection in an open-air swimming pool in the Alps. Chromobacterium violaceum is a rare gram-negative anaerobe bacillus, generally associated with serious waterborne infections in tropical and subtropical regions. The patient presented to our emergency department with a 2-day history of fever and a small non-necrotic wound on the right leg after a minor injury 9 days before. It turned out to be the first infection in Switzerland due to C. violaceum, a deadly bacterium typical of tropical regions. C. violaceum appeared for the first time in Europe in the 2011. This is now the third documented case in less than a year and the second autochthonous infection ever in our continent. A delay in adequate treatment of this emerging pathogen may be associated with high fatality rates.

Using data on the universe of U.S. patents filed between 1976 and 2010, we quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientists to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. We uncover large, stable, and precisely estimated effects of personal and corporate taxes on star scientists’ migration patterns. The long run elasticity of mobility relative to taxes is 1.6 for personal income taxes, 2.3 for state corporate income tax and -2.6 for the investment tax credit. The effect on mobility is small in the short run, and tends to grow over time. We find no evidence of pre-trends: Changes in mobility follow changes in taxes and do not to precede them. Consistent with their high income, star scientists’ migratory flows are sensitive to changes in the 99th percentile marginal tax rate, but are insensitive to changes in taxes for the median income. As expected, the effect of corporate income taxes is concentrated among private sector inventors: no effect is found on academic and government researchers. Moreover, corporate taxes only matter in states where the wage bill enters the state’s formula for apportioning multi-state income. No effect is found in states that apportion income based only on sales (in which case labor’s location has little or no effect on the tax bill). We also find no evidence that changes in state taxes are correlated with changes in the fortunes of local firms in the innovation sector in the years leading up to the tax change. Overall, we conclude that state taxes have significant effect of the geographical location of star scientists and possibly other highly skilled workers. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individual and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that relative taxes matter.

L’articolo evidenzia l’importanza di un’indagine ad ampio spettro sulla tradizione del Decameron, sia per la corretta definizione dei rapporti tra l’autografo Hamilton 90 e il codice Mannelli, problema centrale per la constitutio textus, sia per una migliore comprensione delle dinamiche di trasmissione del testo. Attraverso il riscontro con la principale tradizione manoscritta, sono prima analizzati alcuni casi di varia lectio riguardante l’onomastica decameroniana, al fine di valutare la diffusione di determinate varianti: alcune di esse, di cui in passato era stata prospettata l’autorialità, sono invece ricondotte all’intervento di singoli copisti. Il riesame di alcuni loci critici induce inoltre a riconsiderare l’affidabilità del codice Mannelli, con ricadute concrete anche sulla corretta costituzione del testo critico dell’opera: in particolare viene proposta una diversa soluzione testuale per l’incipit del Decameron, passo per cui la testimonianza dell’autografo è assente. The article enlightens the importance of a wide investigation of the textual tradition of the Decameron, both for the correct definition of the relation between the autograph Hamilton 90 and the Mannelli codex, and for a better comprehension of the dynamics of textual transmission. Through the examination of the most important manuscripts of the tradition, the article analyses some cases concerning decameronian onomastics in order to evaluate the spread of single variants, some of which, attributed in the past to the author, are instead ascribed to copyists. In addition, the article reconsiders the reliability of the Mannelli codex, which is still used by editors to reconstruct those portions of text that are missing in the autograph: in particular, a different textual solution is proposed for the incipit of the Decameron.

In the US and many other OECD countries, expenditures for defense-related R&D represent a key policy channel through which governments shape innovation, and dwarf all other public subsidies for innovation. We examine the impact of government funding for R&D - and defense-related R&D in particular - on privately conducted R&D, and its ultimate effect on productivity growth. We estimate models that relate privately funded R&D to lagged government-funded R&D using industry-country level data from OECD countries and firm level data from France. To deal with the potentially endogenous allocation of government R&D funds we use changes in predicted defense R&D as an instrumental variable. In both datasets, we uncover evidence of “crowding in” rather than “crowding out,” as increases in government-funded R&D for an industry or a firm result in significant increases in private sector R&D in that industry or firm. A 10% increase in government-financed R&D generates 4.3% additional privately funded R&D. An analysis of wages and employment suggests that the increase in private R&D expenditure reflects actual increases in R&D employment, not just higher labor costs. Our estimates imply that some of the existing cross-country differences in private R&D investment are due to cross-country differences in defense R&D expenditures. We also find evidence of international spillovers, as increases in government-funded R&D in a particular industry and country raise private R&D in the same industry in other countries. Finally, we find that increases in private R&D induced by increases in defense R&D result in significant productivity gains.

We study the effect of state-level estate taxes on the geographical location of the Forbes 400 richest Americans and its implications for tax policy. We use a change in federal law to identify the tax sensitivity of the ultra-wealthy's locational choices. Before 2001, estate tax liabilities for the ultra-wealthy were independent of where they live due to a federal credit. In 2001, the credit was eliminated and their estate tax liabilities suddenly became highly dependent on where they live. We find the number of Forbes 400 individuals in estate tax states fell by 35% after 2001 compared to non-estate tax states. We also find that billionaires' sensitivity to the estate tax increases significantly with age. Overall, billionaires' geographical location appears to be highly sensitive to estate taxes. When we estimate the effect of billionaire deaths on state tax revenues, we find a sharp increase in revenues in the three years after a Forbes billionaire's death, totaling $165 million for the average billionaire. In the last part of the paper, we estimate the revenue costs and benefits for each state of having an estate tax. The benefit is the tax revenue gain when a wealthy resident dies, while the cost is the foregone income tax revenues over the remaining lifetime of those who relocate. Surprisingly, despite the high estimated tax mobility, we find that the benefit exceeds the cost for the vast majority of states. Of the states that currently do not have estate taxes, all but California would experience revenue gains if they adopted estate taxes.

In most countries, average wages tend to be higher in larger cities. In this paper, we focus on the role played by the matching of workers to firms in explaining geographical wage differences. Using rich administrative German data for 1985-2014, we show that wages in large cities are higher not only because large cities attract more high-quality workers, but also because high quality workers are significantly more likely to be matched to high-quality plants. In particular, we find that assortative matching-measured by the correlation of worker fixed effects and plant fixed effects-is significantly stronger in large cities. The elasticity of assortative matching with respect to population has increased by around 75%in the last 30 years. We estimate that in a hypothetical scenario in which we keep the quality and location of German workers and plants unchanged, and equalize within-city assortative matching geographical wage inequality in Germany would decrease significantly. Overall, assortative matching magnifies wage differences caused by worker sorting and is a key factor in explaining the growth of wage disparities between communities over the last three decades. If high-quality workers and firms are complements in production, moreover, increased assortative matching will increase aggregate earnings. We estimate that the increase in within-city assortative matching observed between 1985 and 2014 increased aggregate labor earnings in Germany by 2.1%, or 31.32 billion euros. We conclude that assortative matching increases earnings inequality across communities, but it also generates important efficiency gains for the German economy as a whole.

We estimate direct and indirect effects of total factor productivity growth in manufacturing on US workers' earnings, housing costs, and purchasing power. Drawing on four alternative instrumental variables, we consistently find that when a city experiences productivity gains in manufacturing, there are substantial local increases in employment and average earnings. For renters, increased earnings are largely offset by increased cost of living; for homeowners, the benefits are substantial. Strikingly, local productivity growth in manufacturing reduces local inequality, as it raises earnings of local less-skilled workers more than the earnings of local more-skilled workers. This is due, in part, to lower geographic mobility of less-skilled workers. However, local productivity growth also has important indirect effects through worker mobility. We estimate that 38% of the overall increase in workers' purchasing power occurs outside cities directly affected by local TFP growth. The indirect effects on worker earnings are substantially greater for more-skilled workers, due to greater geographic mobility of more-skilled workers, which increases inequality in other cities. Neglecting these indirect effects would both understate the overall magnitude of benefits from productivity growth and misstate their distributional consequences. Overall, US workers benefit substantially from manufacturing productivity growth. Summing direct and indirect effects, we find that manufacturing TFP growth from 1980 to 1990 increased purchasing power for the average US worker by 0.5-0.6% per year from 1980 to 2000. These gains do not depend on a worker's education; rather, the benefits from productivity growth mainly depend on where workers live.

Many empirical microeconomic studies estimate econometric models that assume a single finite-valued discrete endogenous regressor (for example: different levels of schooling), exogenous regressors that are additively separable and enter the equation linearly; and coefficients (including per-unit treatment effects) that are homogeneous in the population. Empirical researchers interested in the causal effect of the endogenous regressor often use instrumental variables. When few valid instruments are available, researchers typically estimate restricted specifications that impose uniform per-unit treatment effects, even when these effects are likely to vary depending on the treatment level. In these cases, ordinary least squares (OLS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimators identify different weighted averages of all per-unit effects, so the traditional Hausman test (based on the restricted specification) is uninformative about endogeneity. Addressing this concern, we develop a new exogeneity test that compares the IV estimate from the restricted model with an appropriately weighted average of all per-unit effects estimated from the more general model using OLS. Notably, our test works even when the true model cannot be estimated using IV methods as long as a single valid instrument is available (e.g. a single binary instrument). We re-visit three recent empirical examples that examine the role of educational attainment on various outcomes to demonstrate the practical value of our test.

Background: In the development of hypertensive microvascular remodeling, a relevant role may be played by changes in extracellular matrix proteins. Aim of this study was the to evaluate some extracellular matrix components within the tunica media of subcutaneous small arteries in 9 normotensive subjects and 12 essential hypertensive patients, submitted to a biopsy of subcutaneous fat from the gluteal or the anterior abdominal region. Patients and Methods: Subcutaneous small resistance arteries were dissected and mounted on an isometric myograph, and the tunica media to internal lumen ratio was measured. In addition, fibronectin, laminin, transforming growth factor-beta-1 (TGF-β1) and emilin-1 contents within the tunica media were evaluated by immunofluorescence and relative immunomorphometrical analysis (immunopositivity % of area). The total collagen content and collagen subtypes within the tunica media were evaluated using both Sirius red staining (under polarized light) and immunofluorescence assay. Results: Normotensive controls had less total and type III collagen in respect with hypertensive patients. Fibronectin and TGF-β1 tunica media content was significantly greater in essential hypertensive patients, compared with normotensive controls, while laminin and emilin-1 tunica media content was lesser in essential hypertensive patients, compared with normotensive controls. A significant correlation was observed between fibronectin tunica media content and media to lumen ratio. Conclusions: Our results indicate that, in small resistance arteries of patients with essential hypertension, a relevant fibrosis may be detected; fibronectin and TGF-β1 tunica media content is increased, while laminin and emilin-1 content is decreased; these changes might be involved in the development of small resistance artery remodeling in humans.

We show that every time a local economy generates a new job by attracting a new business in the traded sector, a significant number of additional jobs are created in the non-traded sector. This multiplier effect is particularly large for jobs with high levels of human capital and for high-technology industries. These findings are important for local development policies, as they suggest that to increase local employment levels, municipalities should target high-technology employers with high levels of human capital. Copyright 2013 The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Associazione ICC., Oxford University Press.

A large literature has documented a significant increase in the return to college over the past 30 years. This increase is typically measured using nominal wages. I show that from 1980 to 2000, college graduates have increasingly concentrated in metropolitan areas that are characterized by a high cost of housing. This implies that college graduates are increasingly exposed to a high cost of living and that the relative increase in their real wage may be smaller than the relative increase in their nominal wage. To measure the college premium in real terms, I deflate nominal wages using a new CPI that allows for changes in the cost of housing to vary across metropolitan areas and education groups. I find that half of the documented increase in the return to college between 1980 and 2000 disappears when I use real wages. This finding does not appear to be driven by differences in housing quality and is robust to a number of alternative specifications. The implications of this finding for changes in well-being inequality depend on why college graduates sort into expensive cities. Using a simple general equilibrium model, I consider two alternative explanations. First, it is possible that the relative supply of college graduates increases in expensive cities because college graduates are increasingly attracted by amenities located in those cities. In this case, higher cost of housing reflects consumption of desirable local amenities, and there may still be a significant increase in well-being inequality even if the increase in real wage inequality is limited. Alternatively, it is possible that the relative demand of college graduates increases in expensive cities due to shifts in the relative productivity of skilled labor. In this case, the relative increase in skilled workers' standard of living is offset by higher cost of living. The empirical evidence indicates that relative demand shifts are more important than relative supply shifts, suggesting that the increase in well-being inequality between 1980 and 2000 is smaller than the increase in nominal wage inequality.

Using box-office data for all movies released between 1982 and 2000, I quantify how much the consumption decisions of individuals depend on information they receive from their peers, when quality is ex ante uncertain. In the presence of social learning, we should see different box-office sales dynamics depending on whether opening weekend demand is higher or lower than expected. I use a unique feature of the movie industry to identify ex ante demand expectations: the number of screens dedicated to a movie in its opening weekend reflects the sales expectations held by profit-maximizing theatre owners. Several pieces of evidence are consistent with social learning. First, sales of movies with positive surprise and negative surprise in opening weekend demand diverge over time. If a movie has better than expected appeal and therefore experiences larger than expected sales in Week 1, consumers in Week 2 update upward their expectations of quality, further increasing Week 2 sales. Second, this divergence is small for movies for which consumers have strong priors and large for movies for which consumers have weak priors. Third, the effect of a surprise is stronger for audiences with large social networks. Finally, consumers do not respond to surprises in first-week sales that are orthogonal to movie quality, like weather shocks. Overall, social learning appears to be an important determinant of sales in the movie industry, accounting for 32% of sales for the typical movie with positive surprise. This implies the existence of a large "social multiplier" such that the elasticity of aggregate demand to movie quality is larger than the elasticity of individual demand. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

Do acquirors profit from acquisitions, or do CEOs overbid and destroy shareholder value? We propose a novel approach to measuring the long-run returns to mergers. In a new data set of close bidding contests we use losers' post-merger performance to construct the counterfactual performance of winners had they not won the contest. We find that winner and loser returns are closely comoving in the years before the contest, providing support for our approach to identification. After the merger, they diverge: Winners underperform losers by 24 percent over the following three years in the U.S. sample, and by 14 percent in the international sample. Merger characteristics commonly associated with underperformance, such as acquiror size, acquiror Q, or stock financing do not explain the underperformance. Instead, the large underperformance of cash-financed mergers and their post-merger increase in leverage is consistent with behavioral and practitioner views on the determinants of merger outcomes. We also show that commonly used methodologies such as the announcement effect fail to identify the acquiror underperformance.

The intergenerational elasticity of income is generally considered one of the best summary measures of the degree to which a society gives equal opportunity of success to all its members, irrespective of their family background. We present a parsimonious political economy model and show how the interaction between private and collective decisions determines the equilibrium level of mobility. Contrary to what it is generally assumed, a low correlation between father income and son income is not always desirable, as it may imply more inefficiency due to the distortionary effects of mobility-enhancing public policies. Moreover, taking into account the heterogeneity in preferences for intergenerational mobility leads to the conclusion that even if a fully mobile society is desirable ex ante, it may not be politically sustainable ex post. Our model clarifies the structural parameters behind the widely studied intergenerational elasticity of income in terms of political economy forces. Finally, we show some empirical evidence on the relationship between intergenerational elasticity of income across countries and its underlying determinants that is consistent with the predictions of the model.

Does the presence of corporate headquarters in a city affect the incomes of local charities? To address this question we combine data on the head office locations of publicly traded U.S. firms with information on the receipts of local charitable organizations. Cities like Houston, San Jose, and San Francisco gained significant numbers of corporate headquarters over the past two decades, while cities like Chicago and Los Angeles lost. Our analysis suggests that attracting or retaining the headquarters of a publicly traded firm yields approximately $3–10 million per year in contributions to local non-profits. Likewise, each $1000 increase in the market value of the firms headquartered in a city yields $0.60–1.60 to local non-profits. Most of the increase in charitable contributions is attributable to an effect on the number of highly-compensated individuals in a city, rather than through direct donations by the corporations themselves. The increased private sector donations from the presence of corporate headquarters do not seem to crowd out government grants to local charities.

We estimate the effect of extreme weather on life expectancy in the US. Using high frequency mortality data, we find that both extreme heat and extreme cold result in immediate increases in mortality. However, the increase in mortality following extreme heat appears entirely driven by temporal displacement, while the increase in mortality following extreme cold is long lasting. The aggregate effect of cold on mortality is quantitatively large. We estimate that the number of annual deaths attributable to cold temperature is 27,940 or 1.3% of total deaths in the US. This effect is even larger in low income areas. Because the U.S. population has been moving from cold Northeastern states to the warmer Southwestern states, our findings have implications for understanding the causes of long-term increases in life expectancy. We calculate that every year, 5,400 deaths are delayed by changes in exposure to cold temperature induced by mobility. These longevity gains associated with long term trends in geographical mobility account for 8%-15% of the total gains in life expectancy experienced by the US population over the past 30 years. Thus mobility is an important but previously overlooked determinant of increased longevity in the United States. We also find that the probability of moving to a state that has fewer days of extreme cold is higher for the age groups that are predicted to benefit more in terms of lower mortality compared to the age groups that are predicted to benefit less.

We survey the evidence on whether racial attitudes negatively affected Barack Obama’s vote share in the 2008 presidential election. There is some evidence pointing toward this possibility. First, the increase in the Democratic vote share in the presidential election between 2004 and 2008 was relatively smaller in Appalachia and some Southern states. Second, there was a significantly smaller 2004–2008 growth in votes for the Democratic presidential candidate than Democratic House of Representatives candidates. While these patterns are consistent with the possibility that racial attitudes lowered the number of votes for Obama, a more complete examination of available data casts doubt on this interpretation. We examine whether Barack Obama underperformed in parts of the country where voters are more racially biased, on average. Specifically, we test whether the loss of votes experienced by Obama (compared to John Kerry) relative to the votes that one may have predicted based on the general increase in the number of Democratic votes in House elections between 2004 and 2008 was larger in states where the white population is more racially biased, on average. We measure racial attitudes using data from the General Social Survey on the fraction of white voters who support anti-interracial-marriage laws. We find little evidence that Obama underperformed relative to congressional Democrats in states that have a white electorate with stronger racial bias. We also find little evidence that turnout was higher among segments of the

Investment decisions are almost always made under uncertainty. Over time, learning occurs, as the flow of information on the costs and benefits of an investment decision reduce its uncertainty (Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck 1994). Political prediction markets offer an ideal setting to test how investors learn, and how learning affects market prices. Prediction markets consist of contracts that pay one dollar in the event of a particular candidate winning an election. These contracts are bought and sold in the marketplace, with the idea that those with the best predictive information have incentives to enter this market, and that the equilibrium price will reflect the marginal investor’s subjective probability of a particular candidate winning. One appealing feature of prediction markets for tests of investor learning is the availability of high-frequency data on popular opinion polls. Unlike in the case of most other markets, opinion polls allow an observer to exactly quantify the flow of information that investors receive over time on the underlying value of the asset. Furthermore, unlike in many other markets, political prediction markets have a fixed date where the true value of the asset is revealed (i.e., election day). In this paper, we explore how polls and prediction markets interact in the context of the 2008 US presidential election. We begin by presenting some evidence on the relative predictive power of polls and prediction markers.

We investigate how and why the productivity of a worker varies as a function of the productivity of her co-workers in a group production process. In theory, the introduction of a high productivity worker could lower the effort of incumbent workers because of free riding; or it could increase the effort of incumbent workers because of peer effects induced by social norms, social pressure, or learning. Using scanner level data, we measure high frequency, worker-level productivity of checkers for a large grocery chain. Because of the firm's scheduling policy, the timing of within-day changes in personnel is unsystematic, a feature for which we find consistent support in the data. We find strong evidence of positive productivity spillovers from the introduction of highly productive personnel into a shift. A 10% increase in average co-worker permanent productivity is associated with 1.7% increase in a worker's effort. Most of this peer effect arises from low productivity workers benefiting from the presence of high productivity workers. Therefore, the optimal mix of workers in a given shift is the one that maximizes skill diversity. In order to explain the mechanism that generates the peer effect, we examine whether effort depends on workers' ability to monitor one another due to their spatial arrangement, and whether effort is affected by the time workers have previously spent working together. We find that a given worker's effort is positively related to the presence and speed of workers who face him, but not the presence and speed of workers whom he faces (and do not face him). In addition, workers respond more to the presence of co-workers with whom they frequently overlap. These patterns indicate that these individuals are motivated by social pressure and mutual monitoring, and suggest that social preferences can play an important role in inducing effort, even when economic incentives are limited.

Do parents have preferences over the gender of their children, and if so, does this have negative consequences for daughters versus sons? In this paper, we show that child gender affects the marital status, family structure, and fertility of a significant number of American families. Overall, a first-born daughter is significantly less likely to be living with her father compared to a first-born son. Three factors are important in explaining this gap. First, women with first-born daughters are less likely to marry. Strikingly, we also find evidence that the gender of a child in utero affects shotgun marriages. Among women who have taken an ultrasound test during pregnancy, mothers who have a girl are less likely to be married at delivery than those who have a boy. Second, parents who have first-born girls are significantly more likely to be divorced. Third, after a divorce, fathers are much more likely to obtain custody of sons compared to daughters. These three factors have serious negative income and educational consequences for affected children. What explains these findings? In the last part of the paper, we turn to the relationship between child gender and fertility to help sort out parental gender bias from competing explanations for our findings. We show that the number of children is significantly higher in families with a first-born girl. Our estimates indicate that first-born daughters caused approximately 5500 more births per year, for a total of 220,000 more births over the past 40 years. Taken individually, each piece of empirical evidence is not sufficient to establish the existence of parental gender bias. But taken together, the weight of the evidence supports the notion that parents in the U.S. favour boys over girls. Copyright 2008, Wiley-Blackwell.

We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs. Misallocation arises because high productivity cities like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area have adopted stringent restrictions to new housing supply, effectively limiting the number of workers who have access to such high productivity. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data from 220 metropolitan areas we find that these constraints lowered aggregate US growth by 36 percent from 1964 to 2009. (JEL E23, J24, J31, R23, R31)

Using data on the universe of U.S. patents filed between 1976 and 2010, we quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientist to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. We uncover large, stable, and precisely estimated effects of personal and corporate taxes on star scientists’ migration patterns. The long run elasticity of mobility relative to taxes is 1.6 for personal income taxes, 2.3 for state corporate income tax and -2.6 for the investment tax credit. The effect on mobility is small in the short run, and tends to grow over time. We find no evidence of pre-trends: Changes in mobility follow changes in taxes and do not to precede them. Consistent with their high income, star scientists migratory flows are sensitive to changes in the 99th percentile marginal tax rate, but are insensitive to changes in taxes for the median income. As expected, the effect of corporate income taxes is concentrated among private sector inventors: no effect is found on academic and government researchers. Moreover, corporate taxes only matter in states where the wage bill enters the state’s formula for apportioning multi-state income. No effect is found in states that apportion income based only on sales (in which case labor’s location has little or no effect on the tax bill). We also find no evidence that changes in state taxes are correlated with changes in the fortunes of local firms in the innovation sector in the years leading up to the tax change. Overall, we conclude that state taxes have significant effect of the geographical location of star scientists and possibly other highly skilled workers. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individual and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that relative taxes matter.

From 1997 through early 2003, the United Nations Oil for Food Program allowed Iraq to export oil in exchange for humanitarian supplies. We measure the extent to which this program was corrupted by Iraq's attempts to deliberately set the price of its oil below market prices in an effort to solicit bribes, both in the form of direct cash bribes and in the form of political favors, from the buyers of the underpriced oil. We infer the magnitude of the potential bribe by comparing the gap between the official selling price of Iraq's two crude oils (Basrah Light and Kirkuk) and the market price of several comparison crude oils during the Program to the gap observed prior to the Program. We find consistent evidence that underpricing of Basrah Light averaged $1 per barrel from 1997 through 1999 and reaches a peak (almost $3 per barrel) from May 2000 through September 2001. The estimated underpricing quickly declines after the UN introduced a retroactive pricing scheme that reduced Iraq's ability to set the price of its oil. The evidence on whether Kirkuk was underpriced is less clear. Notably, we find that episodes of underpricing of Basrah Light are associated with a decline in the share of major oil multinationals among the oil buyers, and an increase in the share of obscure individual traders. The observed underpricing of Iraqi oil suggests that Iraq generated $5 billion in rents through its strategic underpricing. Of this amount, we estimate that Iraq collected $0.7 to $2 billion in bribes (depending on Iraq's share of the rents implied by the price gap), which is roughly 1 to 3 percent of the total value of oil sales under the Program. Finally, we find little evidence that underpricing was associated with increases in the relative supply or declines in the relative demand of Iraqi oil.

A semiparametric estimator for evaluating the parameters of data generated under a sample selection process is developed. This estimator is based on the generalized maximum entropy estimator and performs well for small and ill-posed samples. Theoretical and sampling comparisons with parametric and semiparametric estimators are given. This method and standard ones are applied to three small-sample empirical applications of the wage-participation model for female teenage heads of households, immigrants, and Native Americans.