Search

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Interhospital transportation of critically ill patients is challenging. The risk incurred by the patient is compounded when stabilization and application of appropriate therapies are delayed. The purpose of this study was to first develop an interhospital intensive care unit (ICU) transfer instrument to systematize communication and determine feasibility of use. Then, the transfer instrument was tested for effects on patient mortality, stability on arrival, and recommended therapy implementation. Method: The instrument was developed and pilot tested for 6 months to optimize function and applicability. Then, a before-and-after quasi-experimental study tested this instrument by assessing several key outcomes. Outcomes measured included 48-hour mortality, ICU mortality, hospital mortality, emergent intubation, emergent central venous catheter insertion, immediate change in antibiotics, and addition of vasopressors immediately on arrival. Patients were compared by age, gender, cause for admission, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score. A standardized mortality ratio was calculated using the patient’s APACHE II score. Pretransport recommendations to referring physicians and adherence to recommendations were also measured. Results: The preintervention group consisted of 134 patients collected continuously over 6 months. The postintervention group was collected continuously over a 6-month period and included 77 patients. The interhospital ICU transfer instrument was associated with fewer emergent central venous catheter insertions and fewer changes in antibiotics on arrival. Recommendations to transferring physicians were followed 90% of the time. Conclusions: The interhospital ICU transfer instrument is a tool that is effective in coordinating the transfer of medical ICU patients. Implementation leads to timely critical interventions and may reduce mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe 2 confirmed episodes of surgeon-to-patient hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission through large-joint arthroplasty without recognized breaches in infection control practices. The investigation supports the 2010 Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America guidelines and 2012 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations for management of healthcare workers with chronic HBV infection.Background. During the evaluation of a needle-stick injury, an orthopedic surgeon was found to be unknowingly infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV) (viral load >17.9 million IU/mL). He had previously completed two 3-dose series of hepatitis B vaccine without achieving a protective level of surface antibody. We investigated whether any surgical patients had acquired HBV infection while under his care.Methods. A retrospective cohort study of all patients who underwent surgery by the surgeon was conducted. Patients were notified of their potential exposure and need for testing, and samples with positive HBV loads underwent DNA sequencing. Characteristics of the surgical procedures for the cohort were evaluated.Results. A total of 232 (70.7%) of potentially exposed patients consented to testing; 2 were found to have acute infection and 6 had possible transmission (evidence of past exposure without risk factors). Genome sequence analysis of HBV DNA from the infected surgeon and patients with acute infection revealed genetically related virus (>99.9% nucleotide identity). Only age was found to be statistically different between those with confirmed or possible HBV transmission and those who remained susceptible to HBV.Conclusions. We documented HBV transmission during orthopedic surgery to 2 patients from a surgeon with HBV. This investigation highlights the importance of evaluating individuals who do not respond to 2 series of HBV vaccination, the increased risk of HBV transmission from providers with high viral loads, and the need to evaluate the clinical practice of providers with HBV and implement appropriate procedure-based practice restrictions. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Hospitals are increasingly compared based on clinical outcomes adjusted for severity of illness. Multiple methods exist to adjust for differences between patients. The challenge for consumers of this information, both the public and healthcare providers, is interpreting differences in risk adjustment models particularly when models differ in their use of administrative and physiologic data. We set to examine how administrative and physiologic models compare to each when applied to critically ill patients. Methods: We prospectively abstracted variables for a physiologic and administrative model of mortality from two intensive care units in the United States. Predicted mortality was compared through the Pearsons Product coefficient and Bland- Altman analysis. A subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department was analyzed to remove potential confounding changes in condition prior to ICU admission. Results: We included 556 patients from two academic medical centers in this analysis. The administrative model and physiologic models predicted mortalities for the combined cohort were 15.3% (95% CI 13.7%, 16.8%) and 24.6% (95% CI 22.7%, 26.5%) (t-test p-value<0.001). The r2 for these models was 0.297. The Bland-Atlman plot suggests that at low predicted mortality there was good agreement; however, as mortality increased the models diverged. Similar results were found when analyzing a subgroup of patients admitted directly from the emergency department. When comparing the two hospitals, there was a statistical difference when using the administrative model but not the physiologic model. Unexplained mortality, defined as those patients who died who had a predicted mortality less than 10%, was a rare event by either model. Conclusions: In conclusion, while it has been shown that administrative models provide estimates of mortality that are similar to physiologic models in non-critically ill patients with pneumonia, our results suggest this finding can not be applied globally to patients admitted to intensive care units. As patients and providers increasingly use publicly reported information in making health care decisions and referrals, it is critical that the provided information be understood. Our results suggest that severity of illness may influence the mortality index in administrative models. We suggest that when interpreting "report cards" or metrics, health care providers determine how the risk adjustment was made and compares to other risk adjustment models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Overtesting and overdiagnosis of Clostridioides difficile infection are suspected to be common. Reducing inappropriate testing through interventions designed to promote evidence-based diagnostic testing (ie, diagnostic stewardship) may improve C. difficile test utilization. However, the safety of these interventions is not well understood despite the potential risk for missed or delayed diagnoses. Methods This retrospective case–control study examined the outcomes of patients admitted to the University of Virginia Medical Center following introduction of a computerized clinical decision support tool without hard-stops designed to reduce inappropriate tests. Outcomes were compared between patients with a prevented C. difficile nucleic acid amplification test and those with a negative result. Chart reviews were performed for patients with a subsequent positive within 7 days, as well as those patients who received C. difficile –active antibiotics after implementation of the computerized clinical decision support tool. Results Multivariate analysis of 637 cases (490 negative, 147 prevented) showed that a prevented test was not significantly associated with the primary composite outcome (inpatient mortality or intensive care unit transfer) compared with a negative test (adjusted odds ratio, 0.912; P  = .747). Fifty-four of 147 (37%) prevented tests were followed by a completed test within 7 days; 11 of these results were positive, resulting in a potential delay in diagnosis. Individual case reviews found that either clinical changes warranted the delay in testing or no adverse events occurred attributable to C. difficile infection. C. difficile treatment without a positive test was not identified. Conclusions Diagnostic stewardship of C. difficile testing using computerized clinical decision support may be both safe and effective for reducing inappropriate inpatient testing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE: To investigate temporal trends and outcomes associated with early antibiotic prescribing in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. DESIGN: Retrospective propensity-matched cohort study using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) database. SETTING: Sixty-six health systems throughout the United States that were contributing to the N3C database. Centers that had fewer than 500 admissions in their dataset were excluded. PATIENTS: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were included. Patients were defined to have early antibiotic use if they received at least 3 calendar days of intravenous antibiotics within the first 5 days of admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Of 322,867 qualifying first hospitalizations, 43,089 patients received early empiric antibiotics. Antibiotic use declined across all centers in the data collection period, from March 2020 (23%) to June 2022 (9.6%). Average rates of early empiric antibiotic use (EEAU) also varied significantly between centers (deviance explained 7.33% vs 20.0%, p < 0.001). Antibiotic use decreased slightly by day 2 of hospitalization and was significantly reduced by day 5. Mechanical ventilation before day 2 (odds ratio [OR] 3.57; 95% CI, 3.42-3.72), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation before day 2 (OR 2.14; 95% CI, 1.75-2.61), and early vasopressor use (OR 1.85; 95% CI, 1.78-1.93) but not region of residence was associated with EEAU. After propensity matching, EEAU was associated with an increased risk for in-hospital mortality (OR 1.27; 95% CI, 1.23-1.33), prolonged mechanical ventilation (OR 1.65; 95% CI, 1.50-1.82), late broad-spectrum antibiotic exposure (OR 3.24; 95% CI, 2.99-3.52), and late Clostridium difficile infection (OR 1.60; 95% CI, 1.37-1.87). CONCLUSIONS: Although treatment of COVID-19 patients with empiric antibiotics has declined during the pandemic, the frequency of use remains high. There is significant inter-center variation in antibiotic prescribing practices and evidence of potential harm. Our findings are hypothesis-generating and future work should prospectively compare outcomes and adverse events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neuropsychological symptoms associated with post-COVID-19 conditions may prevent patients from resuming normal activities at home or work. We report a retrospective, cross-sectional evaluation of neuropsychological and cardiopulmonary outcomes in 2 groups of patients: outpatients with mild enough infection to be spared from hospitalization and those who required inpatient admission. We hypothesized a dose-response model of post-COVID symptom severity in which persistent consequences would be more severe in those who experienced worse acute infections. In a dedicated COVID clinic, 321 patients were seen (33% outpatient, 67% inpatient). Outpatients skewed female, White, non-Hispanic, and younger. Outpatients had worse insomnia (measured with insomnia severity index) and were less able to resume their usual activities (EQ-5D-5L usual activities scale), despite inpatients experiencing worse cognition (Montreal Cognitive Assessment), having greater obesity (body mass index), decreased exercise tolerance (6-minute-walk distance), and more exertional oxygen desaturation. In both groups, insomnia worsened while cognition improved significantly with time from infection to testing while controlling for patient age; other variables did not. In logistic regression, female sex, higher MoCA score, EQ-5D-5L "usual activities" subscore, less oxygen desaturation with exertion, and longer time from infection remained as significant associations with outpatient status. Our study demonstrated that the functional sequelae of post-COVID-19 conditions in patients with mild acute disease have the potential to be as severe as that in patients who have recovered from severe illness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To determine the association of new-onset atrial fibrillation with outcomes, including ICU length of stay and survival.Design: Retrospective cohort of ICU admissions. We found atrial fibrillation using automated detection (≥ 90 s in 30 min) and classed as new-onset if there was no prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. We identified determinants of new-onset atrial fibrillation and, using propensity matching, characterized its impact on outcomes.Setting: Tertiary care academic center.Patients: A total of 8,356 consecutive adult admissions to either the medical or surgical/trauma/burn ICU with available continuous electrocardiogram data.Interventions: None.Measurements and Main Results: From 74 patient-years of every 15-minute observations, we detected atrial fibrillation in 1,610 admissions (19%), with median burden less than 2%. Most atrial fibrillation was paroxysmal; less than 2% of admissions were always in atrial fibrillation. New-onset atrial fibrillation was subclinical or went undocumented in 626, or 8% of all ICU admissions. Advanced age, acute respiratory failure, and sepsis were the strongest predictors of new-onset atrial fibrillation. In propensity-adjusted regression analyses, clinical new-onset atrial fibrillation was associated with increased hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.63) and longer length of stay (2.25 d; CI, 0.58-3.92). New-onset atrial fibrillation was not associated with survival after hospital discharge (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.76-1.28 and hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.67-1.83, respectively, for subclinical and clinical new-onset atrial fibrillation).Conclusions: Automated analysis of continuous electrocardiogram heart rate dynamics detects new-onset atrial fibrillation in many ICU patients. Though often transient and frequently unrecognized, new-onset atrial fibrillation is associated with poor hospital outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research examining associations between weather and human health frequently includes the effects of atmospheric humidity. A large number of humidity variables have been developed for numerous purposes, but little guidance is available to health researchers regarding appropriate variable selection. We examine a suite of commonly used humidity variables and summarize both the medical and biometeorological literature on associations between humidity and human health. As an example of the importance of humidity variable selection, we correlate numerous hourly humidity variables to daily respiratory syncytial virus isolates in Singapore from 1992 to 1994. Most water-vapor mass based variables (specific humidity, absolute humidity, mixing ratio, dewpoint temperature, vapor pressure) exhibit comparable correlations. Variables that include a thermal component (relative humidity, dewpoint depression, saturation vapor pressure) exhibit strong diurnality and seasonality. Humidity variable selection must be dictated by the underlying research question. Despite being the most commonly used humidity variable, relative humidity should be used sparingly and avoided in cases when the proximity to saturation is not medically relevant. Care must be taken in averaging certain humidity variables daily or seasonally to avoid statistical biasing associated with variables that are inherently diurnal through their relationship to temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975-2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975-2002 to daily air temperature, dew point temperature (a measure of atmospheric humidity), and daily air mass type. We identified high mortality days and periods and employed temporal smoothers and lags to account for the latency period and the time between infection and death. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare high mortality events to non-events and nonparametric bootstrapped regression analysis was used to examine the characteristics of longer mortality episodes. We found a statistically significant (p = 0.003) association between periods of low dew point temperature and above normal pneumonia and influenza mortality 17 days later. The duration (r =20.61) and severity (r =20.56) of high mortality episodes was inversely correlated with morning dew point temperature prior to and during the episodes. Weeks in which moist polar air masses were common (air masses characterized by low dew point temperatures) were likewise followed by above normal mortality 17 days later (p = 0.019). This research supports the contention that cold, dry air may be related to influenza mortality and suggests that warning systems could provide enough lead time to be effective in mitigating the effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Catecholamine-resistant postoperative vasoplegic syndrome (PVS) lacks effective treatment modalities. Synthetic angiotensin II was recently approved for the treatment of vasodilatory shock; however, its use in PVS is not well described. We report outcomes in six patients receiving angiotensin II for the treatment of isolated PVS. All patients achieved their MAP goal and the majority showed improvement in lactate and background catecholamine dose; however, variables of perfusion changed discordantly. Three of six patients survived to hospital discharge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute pulmonary embolism remains a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Benefit of recently developed multidisciplinary PE response teams (PERT) with higher utilization of advanced therapies has not been established.Methods: To evaluate patient-centered outcomes and cost-effectiveness of a multidisciplinary PERT we performed a retrospective analysis of 554 patients with acute PE at the university of Virginia between July 2014 and June 2015 (pre-PERT era) and between April 2017 through October 2018 (PERT era). Six-month survival, hospital length-of-stay (LOS), type of PE therapy, and in-hospital bleeding were assessed upon collected data.Results: 317 consecutive patients were treated for acute PE during an 18-month period following institution of a multidisciplinary PE program; for 120 patients PERT was activated (PA), the remaining 197 patients with acute PE were considered as a separate, contemporary group (NPA). The historical, comparator cohort (PP) was composed of 237 patients. These 3 groups were similar in terms of baseline demographics, comorbidities and risk, as assessed by the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI). Patients in the historical cohort demonstrated worsened survival when compared with patients treated during the PERT era. During the PERT era no statistically significant difference in survival was observed in the PA group when compared to the NPA group despite significantly higher severity of illness among PA patients. Hospital LOS was not different in the PA group when compared to either the NPA or PP group. Hospital costs did not differ among the 3 cohorts. 30-day re-admission rates were significantly lower during the PERT era. Rates of advanced therapies were significantly higher during the PERT era (9.1% vs. 2%) and were concentrated in the PA group (21.7% vs. 1.5%) without any significant rise in in-hospital bleeding complications.Conclusions: At our institution, all-cause mortality in patients with acute PE has significantly and durably decreased with the adoption of a PERT program without incurring additional hospital costs or protracting hospital LOS. Our data suggest that the adoption of a multidisciplinary approach at some institutions may provide benefit to select patients with acute PE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lower pH after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been associated with worsening neurologic outcome, with <7.2 identified as an "unfavorable resuscitation feature" in consensus treatment algorithms despite conflicting data. This study aimed to describe the relationship between decremental post-resuscitation pH and neurologic outcomes after OHCA. Consecutive OHCA patients treated with targeted temperature management (TTM) at multiple US centers from 2008 to 2017 were evaluated. Poor neurologic outcome at hospital discharge was defined as cerebral performance category ≥3. The exposure was initial arterial pH after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) analyzed in decremental 0.05 thresholds. Potential confounders (demographics, history, resuscitation characteristics, initial studies) were defined a priori and controlled for via ATT-weighting on the inverse propensity score plus direct adjustment for the linear propensity score. Of 723 patients, 589 (80%) experienced poor neurologic outcome at hospital discharge. After propensity-adjustment with excellent covariate balance, the adjusted odds ratios for poor neurologic outcome by pH threshold were: ≤7.3: 2.0 (1.0–4.0); ≤7.25: 1.9 (1.2–3.1); ≤7.2: 2.1 (1.3–3.3); ≤7.15: 1.9 (1.2–3.1); ≤7.1: 2.4 (1.4–4.1); ≤7.05: 3.1 (1.5–6.3); ≤7.0: 4.5 (1.8–12). No increased hazard of progressively poor neurologic outcomes was observed in resuscitated OHCA patients treated with TTM until the initial post-ROSC arterial pH was at least ≤7.1. This threshold is more acidic than in current guidelines, suggesting the possibility that post-arrest pH may be utilized presently as an inappropriately-pessimistic prognosticator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On May 9, 2017, the Virginia Department of Health was notified regarding a patient with suspected rabies. The patient had sustained a dog bite 6 weeks before symptom onset while traveling in India. On May 11, CDC confirmed that the patient was infected with a rabies virus that circulates in dogs in India. Despite aggressive treatment, the patient died, becoming the ninth person exposed to rabies abroad who has died from rabies in the United States since 2008. A total of 250 health care workers were assessed for exposure to the patient, 72 (29%) of whom were advised to initiate postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). The total pharmaceutical cost for PEP (rabies immunoglobulin and rabies vaccine) was approximately $235,000. International travelers should consider a pretravel consultation with travel health specialists; rabies preexposure prophylaxis is warranted for travelers who will be in rabies endemic countries for long durations, in remote areas, or who plan activities that might put them at risk for a rabies exposures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: The role of cytomegalovirus (CMV) reactivation in mediating adverse clinical outcomes in nonimmunosuppressed adults with critical illness is unknown.Objective: To determine whether ganciclovir prophylaxis reduces plasma interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels in CMV-seropositive adults who are critically ill.Design, Setting, and Participants: Double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial (conducted March 10, 2011-April 29, 2016) with a follow-up of 180 days (November 10, 2016) that included 160 CMV-seropositive adults with either sepsis or trauma and respiratory failure at 14 university intensive care units (ICUs) across the United States.Interventions: Patients were randomized (1:1) to receive either intravenous ganciclovir (5 mg/kg twice daily for 5 days), followed by either intravenous ganciclovir or oral valganciclovir once daily until hospital discharge (n = 84) or to receive matching placebo (n = 76).Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was change in IL-6 level from day 1 to 14. Secondary outcomes were incidence of CMV reactivation in plasma, mechanical ventilation days, incidence of secondary bacteremia or fungemia, ICU length of stay, mortality, and ventilator-free days (VFDs) at 28 days.Results: Among 160 randomized patients (mean age, 57 years; women, 43%), 156 patients received 1or more dose(s) of study medication, and 132 patients (85%) completed the study. The mean change in plasma IL-6 levels between groups was -0.79 log10 units (-2.06 to 0.48) in the ganciclovir group and -0.79 log10 units (-2.14 to 0.56) in the placebo group (point estimate of difference, 0 [95% CI, -0.3 to 0.3]; P > .99). Among secondary outcomes, CMV reactivation in plasma was significantly lower in the ganciclovir group (12% [10 of 84 patients] vs 39% [28 of 72 patients]); absolute risk difference, -27 (95% CI, -40 to -14), P < .001. The ganciclovir group had more median VFDs in both the intention-to-treat (ITT) group and in the prespecified sepsis subgroup (ITT group: 23 days in ganciclovir group vs 20 days in the placebo group, P = .05; sepsis subgroup, 23 days in the ganciclovir group vs 20 days in the placebo group, P = .03). There were no significant differences between the ganciclovir and placebo groups in duration of mechanical ventilation (5 days for the ganciclovir group vs 6 days for the placebo group, P = .16), incidence of secondary bacteremia or fungemia (15% for the ganciclovir group vs 15% for the placebo group, P = .67), ICU length of stay (8 days for the ganciclovir group vs 8 days for the placebo group, P = .76), or mortality (12% for the ganciclovir group vs 15% for the placebo group, P = .54).Conclusions and Relevance: Among CMV-seropositive adults with critical illness due to sepsis or trauma, ganciclovir did not reduce IL-6 levels and the current study does not support routine clinical use of ganciclovir as a prophylactic agent in patients with sepsis. Additional research is necessary to determine the clinical efficacy and safety of CMV suppression in this setting.Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01335932. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Charted vital signs and laboratory results represent intermittent samples of a patient’s dynamic physiologic state and have been used to calculate early warning scores to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration. We hypothesized that the addition of cardiorespiratory dynamics measured from continuous electrocardiography (ECG) monitoring to intermittently sampled data improves the predictive validity of models trained to detect clinical deterioration prior to intensive care unit (ICU) transfer or unanticipated death. Methods and findings: We analyzed 63 patient-years of ECG data from 8,105 acute care patient admissions at a tertiary care academic medical center. We developed models to predict deterioration resulting in ICU transfer or unanticipated death within the next 24 hours using either vital signs, laboratory results, or cardiorespiratory dynamics from continuous ECG monitoring and also evaluated models using all available data sources. We calculated the predictive validity (C-statistic), the net reclassification improvement, and the probability of achieving the difference in likelihood ratio χ2 for the additional degrees of freedom. The primary outcome occurred 755 times in 586 admissions (7%). We analyzed 395 clinical deteriorations with continuous ECG data in the 24 hours prior to an event. Using only continuous ECG measures resulted in a C-statistic of 0.65, similar to models using only laboratory results and vital signs (0.63 and 0.69 respectively). Addition of continuous ECG measures to models using conventional measurements improved the C-statistic by 0.01 and 0.07; a model integrating all data sources had a C-statistic of 0.73 with categorical net reclassification improvement of 0.09 for a change of 1 decile in risk. The difference in likelihood ratio χ2 between integrated models with and without cardiorespiratory dynamics was 2158 (p value: <0.001). Conclusions: Cardiorespiratory dynamics from continuous ECG monitoring detect clinical deterioration in acute care patients and improve performance of conventional models that use only laboratory results and vital signs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Patients in ICUs are susceptible to subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses such as respiratory failure, sepsis, and hemorrhage that present as severe derangements of vital signs. More subtle physiologic signatures may be present before clinical deterioration, when treatment might be more effective. We performed multivariate statistical analyses of bedside physiologic monitoring data to identify such early subclinical signatures of incipient life-threatening illness.Design: We report a study of model development and validation of a retrospective observational cohort using resampling (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis type 1b internal validation) and a study of model validation using separate data (type 2b internal/external validation).Setting: University of Virginia Health System (Charlottesville), a tertiary-care, academic medical center.Patients: Critically ill patients consecutively admitted between January 2009 and June 2015 to either the neonatal, surgical/trauma/burn, or medical ICUs with available physiologic monitoring data.Interventions: None.Measurements and Main Results: We analyzed 146 patient-years of vital sign and electrocardiography waveform time series from the bedside monitors of 9,232 ICU admissions. Calculations from 30-minute windows of the physiologic monitoring data were made every 15 minutes. Clinicians identified 1,206 episodes of respiratory failure leading to urgent unplanned intubation, sepsis, or hemorrhage leading to multi-unit transfusions from systematic individual chart reviews. Multivariate models to predict events up to 24 hours prior had internally validated C-statistics of 0.61-0.88. In adults, physiologic signatures of respiratory failure and hemorrhage were distinct from each other but externally consistent across ICUs. Sepsis, on the other hand, demonstrated less distinct and inconsistent signatures. Physiologic signatures of all neonatal illnesses were similar.Conclusions: Subacute potentially catastrophic illnesses in three diverse ICU populations have physiologic signatures that are detectable in the hours preceding clinical detection and intervention. Detection of such signatures can draw attention to patients at highest risk, potentially enabling earlier intervention and better outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Compared with mortality, the impact of weather and climate on human morbidity is less well understood, especially in the cold season. We examined the relationships between weather and emergency department (ED) visitation at hospitals in Roanoke and Charlottesville, Virginia, two locations with similar climates and population demographic profiles. Using patient-level data obtained from electronic medical records, each patient who visited the ED was linked to that day's weather from one of 8 weather stations in the region based on each patient's ZIP code of residence. The resulting 2010–2017 daily ED visit time series were examined using a distributed lag non-linear model to account for the concurrent and lagged effects of weather. Total ED visits were modeled separately for each location along with subsets based on gender, race, and age. The relationship between the relative risk of ED visitation and temperature or apparent temperature over lags of one week was positive and approximately linear at both locations. The relative risk increased about 5% on warm, humid days in both cities (lag 0 or lag 1). Cold conditions had a protective effect, with up to a 15% decline on cold days, but ED visits increased by 4% from 2 to 5 days after the cold event. The effect of thermal extremes tended to be larger for non-whites and the elderly, and there was some evidence of a greater lagged response for non-whites in Roanoke. Females in Roanoke were more impacted by winter cold conditions than males, who were more likely to show a lagged response at high temperatures. In Charlottesville, males sought ED attention at lower temperatures than did females. The similarities in the ED response patterns between these two hospitals suggest that certain aspects of the response may be generalizable to other locations that have similar climates and demographic profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lower pH after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has been associated with worsening neurologic outcome, with <7.2 identified as an "unfavorable resuscitation feature" in consensus treatment algorithms despite conflicting data. This study aimed to describe the relationship between decremental post-resuscitation pH and neurologic outcomes after OHCA.Methods: Consecutive OHCA patients treated with targeted temperature management (TTM) at multiple US centers from 2008 to 2017 were evaluated. Poor neurologic outcome at hospital discharge was defined as cerebral performance category ≥3. The exposure was initial arterial pH after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) analyzed in decremental 0.05 thresholds. Potential confounders (demographics, history, resuscitation characteristics, initial studies) were defined a priori and controlled for via ATT-weighting on the inverse propensity score plus direct adjustment for the linear propensity score.Results: Of 723 patients, 589 (80%) experienced poor neurologic outcome at hospital discharge. After propensity-adjustment with excellent covariate balance, the adjusted odds ratios for poor neurologic outcome by pH threshold were: ≤7.3: 2.0 (1.0-4.0); ≤7.25: 1.9 (1.2-3.1); ≤7.2: 2.1 (1.3-3.3); ≤7.15: 1.9 (1.2-3.1); ≤7.1: 2.4 (1.4-4.1); ≤7.05: 3.1 (1.5-6.3); ≤7.0: 4.5 (1.8-12).Conclusions: No increased hazard of progressively poor neurologic outcomes was observed in resuscitated OHCA patients treated with TTM until the initial post-ROSC arterial pH was at least ≤7.1. This threshold is more acidic than in current guidelines, suggesting the possibility that post-arrest pH may be utilized presently as an inappropriately-pessimistic prognosticator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]