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Wave phenomena impacts high commercial value coastal and offshore activities, infrastructures, and transportation. The knowledge of future wave conditions allows for consistent long-term planning and decision-making. The present study aims to provide robust, reliable projections of the potential future wave conditions of the Black Sea under the influence of climate change. For this purpose, an 8-member dynamic wave climate ensemble that accurately represents the Black Sea's present wave climate has been produced, and future projections are assessed and analyzed here. The wave climate ensemble was obtained by forcing the SWAN spectral wave model with eight regional wind fields from the EURO-CORDEX. The future simulations of the regional wind fields are based on the RCP8.5 high emission scenario. The historical wave climate of the ensemble was evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis data. Projected changes in the mean wind and wave characteristics are examined by comparing historical and future simulations. In addition, the projected trends in the annual means during the future period of the wave simulations for significant wave height (Hs) and wave energy flux are also analyzed. The projections for Hs and wind speeds are pronounced with significant decreases of down to -10% across the basin, especially in the eastern region of the Black Sea. Changes in the Hs 99% percentiles of up to 16% are projected to occur. The projected changes in the annual mean of the wave energy flux are close to the projected changes in Hs means, while the seasonal changes (between − 15% and 12%) are expected to be higher.

The increased volume of intercontinental-trade had facilitated the distribution of species, including invaders. Wooden packaging materials, goods and timber are being transported via international ports in East of the Marmara Basin, where has vast forests. That forests provide an appropriate-mediator for the introduction and invasion of wood-boring insects, which are the most common group being transported between continents. One of them is Rhagium inquisitor, which has a pivotal role in wood decay, nevertheless, it is detrimental for industrial wood. We analyzed the 654 bp length of cytochrome c oxidase I (COI) gene, to determine native and introduced haplotypes of the ribbed-pine-borer, to investigate their phylogenetic relationships and possibly cryptic speciation of the morphospecies. It was found out that sixteen haplotypes were divided into five haplogroups. The groups were assembled on two main lineages: Eurasian and American. The genetic distance between the American (Groups 1–3), Asian (Group-4) and European (Group-5) clusters ranged from 3 to 10%; between haplotypes ranged from 0.2 to 10.9%. The distances between the specimens of the Marmara Basin (H9-12, Group-4) were lower compared to H16, which nested in Group-5. That haplotype was sampled on imported timber and was found out that it is shared between France, Germany, Italy, and Austria. Maximum Likelihood, Neighbor-Joining and Bayesian Inference trees showed the same topologies, and Median-Joining network also supported them. Contrary to the usual, our findings point out that some species might have been introduced from Europe to Asia. Furthermore, the high genetic diversity of the bark-runner between continents could be a sign of cryptic-allopatric speciation.

In traditional Agri-Food supply chains, there is more than one stage that does not add value to the product, which negatively affects the quality and price of the products. Since inflation in agri-food products directly affects the Consumer Price Index, improvements in the chain will have a high contribution to the consumer.Within the scope of this study, a collaborative methodology has been developed with an integrated approach and without layers that do not create value in the agri-food supply chain. At the first stage, the relevant stakeholders were evaluated separately for their acceptance into the system and the operation processes with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method.Then, within the framework of the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) approach; The most suitable supply chains were determined by linear programming method and capacity balancing was made. Finally, an application on tomato product was analyzed on the AIMMS modeling package in order to verify the methodology, and the obtained findings and results were given., Geleneksel tarım-gıda tedarik zincirlerinde ürüne değer katmayan birden fazla aşama olup ürünlerin kalitesini ve fiyatını olumsuz yönde etkilemektedir. Ayrıca tarım-gıda ürünlerindeki enflasyon Tüketici Fiyat Endeksini de doğrudan etkilediğinden zincir üzerinde yapılacak iyileştirmelerin nihai tüketiciye katkısı yüksek olacaktır. Bu çalışma kapsamında tarım-gıda tedarik zincirinde değer yaratmayan katmanların olmadığı ve bütünleşik bir yaklaşımla iş birliğine dayalı bir metodoloji geliştirilmiştir. İlk aşamada ilgili paydaşlar sisteme kabulü ve operasyon süreçleri için Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (Analytic Hierarchy Process-AHP) yöntemi ile ayrı ayrı değerlendirilmiştir. Daha sonra Ortaklaşa Planlama, Tahmin ve İkmal (Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment- CPFR) yaklaşımı çerçevesinde; doğrusal programlama yöntemiyle en uygun tedarik zincirleri belirlenerek kapasite dengelemesi yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın son kısmında ise metodoloji kapsamında kullanılan yöntemlerin doğrulanmasını gerçekleştirmek üzere domates ürünü üzerine bir uygulama AIMMS modelleme paketi üzerinde analiz edilmiş̧, elde edilen bulgular ve sonuçlar verilmiştir.

Ports are the connection points between the sea and the land in the maritime industry, have an important role in world trade. Ports host many ships each day. The characteristics of the ships that can manoeuvre within the port limits are determined depending on the technical structure of the ports and the environmental conditions of the ports’ location. The characteristics of the ships such as their type, length, width, draft, and tonnage are important factors that determine the port’s limitations. If these restrictions are not followed, it is inevitable for marine accidents to happen within the port area, which can lead to severe consequences such as deaths and injuries, material damage, environmental pollution, and even disasters. Risk analysis studies are carried out in order to prevent possible accidents at the ports and to determine the perils that may occur. When the studies in this field are examined, it is determined that different risk analysis methods are utilized. By using these analysis methods, the dangers sourced from ship manoeuvring that may occur within the port limits are tried to be analysed. The purpose of this study is to create a risk analysis model to be used in the ship manoeuvres and to determine which ships are suitable for manoeuvring in a port and under which environmental conditions ship can manoeuvre. Fuzzy Fine-Kinney method was chosen as the main risk analysis methodology for this study, which has not been used in the related literature. In the study, a full mission ship's bridge simulator was used in created scenarios by taking various environmental conditions into account and coming alongside manoeuvres were carried out by masters with a pre-determined ship on a pier at a port in Istanbul. After the end of each manoeuvre, surveys were filled out and assessments were made by masters that are considered experts in the maritime domain. According to results obtained from the risk analysis method applied in the study, it was determined which ships with which characteristics are suitable for manoeuvring and under which environmental conditions.

0000-0003-4538-4944 0000-0002-3406-3144 WOS:000621467400006 The advantages of logistics centers for companies, cities, and countries have been discussed in the literature and generally mathematical model-based evaluations besides multi-criteria approaches are proposed for site selection processes. However, since mathematical modeling of multiple site selection often turns out to be NP-hard problem structure, it is not always possible to obtain an optimal solution by the solvers. For this reason, various meta-heuristic approaches have emerged to solve these complex models. In this context, the aim of this study is to propose an integrated methodology which seeks an optimum result efficiently regarding a logistics center location selection problem. Thus, the optimal clustering of logistics mobility in a metropolitan area was carried out with GIS and a meta-heuristic approach. GIS produced the spatial information needed by p-median model, then the meta-heuristic approach determined the optimal result that considers the logistics costs. BPSO algorithm has employed as the meta-heuristic and it is observed that the algorithm can reach the optimum results within superior times for the problem sizes tested where binary integer programming verified the optimums and the algorithm continued to reach improved solutions where the exact algorithms failed for larger instances. The integrated solution methodology is applied to a large metropolitan region and it is found that it can be used properly by the urban city planners and supply chain managers to analyze critical nodes of transportation networks of megacities.

Halihazırda Avrupa’nın ve Türkiye’nin en kalabalık metropolü olan İstanbul’un nüfusu artış eğilimindedir. Bu artış genç nüfus ile de birleşince ulaşım ile ilgili talep nüfus artışından da yüksek olarak gözlemlenmektedir. Çalışma kapsamında nüfus artışı ile toplu ulaşım arasındaki bağlantı nedeni özelinde çeşitli araştırma sorunsallarına yanıtlar aranmıştır. İlk değerlendirilen araştırma sorunsalı İstanbul’un arazi kullanımının hangi bölgelerde artışının yoğunlaştığı ve bu değişimin ilçe merkezlerini (ilçe nüfus öbeği merkezleri) değiştirip değiştirmediğidir. İkinci araştırma sorunsalı mevcut metro hatlarının ve gelecek projelerin mevcut nüfusa hizmet sunma oranlarının ne olduğu ve nasıl değişeceğidir. Üçüncü sorunsalı ise raylı sistem hizmeti ve gelecek projelerinin şehirdeki toplu ulaşım talebini hangi oranda kapsayabildiği ve gelecekte hangi oranda kapsayabileceğinin analizidir. Cevabı aranan yanıtlarda İstanbul yapı verisine ait vektör veriler ve İstanbul’daki toplu ulaşımdaki akıllı kart verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında veri setleri sayısallaştırılmıştır. Analiz sonuçları göstermiştir ki, İstanbul’da belirli bölgelerde yapı yoğunluğu artmış olmakla birlikte ilçe merkezleri belirgin oranda değişmemiştir. Raylı sistem projeleri ile nüfus kapsama oranı mevcut hatlar ile %42 iken tüm projeler tamamlandığında %87’ye, yolculukların %79,7’si kapsanırken, projeler tamamlandığında %97,5’e ulaşacaktır.

Chromone (4H-chromen-4-one, 4H-1-benzopyran-4-one) and related compounds are important pharmacophores and privileged structures in medicinal chemistry because of their important biological activities such as anti-tumor, anti-HIV, and antioxidant. In the study, the density functional theory (DFT) calculations were performed for radical scavenging activity evaluation of a series of 3-styrylchromone derivatives. The reaction enthalpies related to the steps in the radical scavenging action mechanisms and several physicochemical descriptors such as global hardness, softness, and electronegativity were computed in gas phase and in water. The solvation effect of water on the antioxidant activity was taken into account by using the conductor-like polarizable continuum model. The calculated results were discussed by considering all physicochemical properties of molecules: thermodynamic, orbital, and structural. The results obtained were consistent with the experimental results.

A high-resolution SWAN wind wave hindcast model was implemented for the Sea of Marmara. For this, we focused firstly on the quality of two data sources for the wind forcing, viz., the ERA-Interim winds from the ECMWF and CFSR winds from the NOAA/NCEP. These were compared against wind measurements for 2013 collected at the Silivri offshore buoy in the north of the Sea of Marmara. A sensitivity analysis was performed to find the optimal numerical settings and wind source. This analysis showed that the CFSR winds are most suited for wave modeling in the Sea of Marmara. As the Sea of Marmara can practically be considered as deep water, we calibrated the SWAN model for different combinations of wind input and whitecapping source terms. The calibration was performed by varying the whitecapping coefficient for different combinations. The model setting giving the lowest errors and highest correlation via sensitivity analysis was determined as the calibrated model. Thirdly, the calibrated model was validated against measurements at the Silivri buoy for the years 2014, 2015 and 2016. This validation confirmed that the calibrated SWAN model with CFSR wind forcing performed better than the default settings. Lastly, the performance of the calibrated SWAN model was assessed for different wave height ranges, wind sources, annually and per season, their directional properties using wind and wave roses, their distribution function and Quantile – Quantile plots along with extreme waves. The calibrated model offers almost the same extreme waves with different recurrent periods as the measurements.

0000-0003-1803-9408 0000-0002-3406-3144 WOS:000522079100001 Managing the distribution of goods is a vital operation for many companies. A successful distribution system requires an effective distribution strategy selection and optimum route planning at the right time and minimum cost. Furthermore, customer's demand and location can vary from order to order. In this situation, a mixed delivery system is a good solution for it and allows the use of different strategies together to decrease delivery costs. Although the "distribution strategy selection" is a critical issue for companies, there are only a few studies that focus on the mixed delivery network problem. There is a need to propose an efficient solution for the mixed delivery problem to guide researchers and practitioners. This paper develops a new "modified" savings-based genetic algorithm which is named "distribution strategy selection and vehicle routing hybrid algorithm (DSSVRHA)." Our new algorithm aims to contribute to the literature a new hybrid solution to solve a mixed delivery network problem that includes three delivery modes: "direct shipment," "milk run," and "cross-docking" efficiently. It decides the appropriate distribution strategy and also optimal routes using a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles at minimum cost. The results of the hybrid algorithm are compared with the results of the optimization model. And the performance of the hybrid algorithm is validated with statistical analysis. The computational results reveal that our developed algorithm provides a good solution for reducing the supply chain distribution costs and computational time.

Dünya ticaretinde orta ve ileri teknoloji ürünlerinin toplam ticarete oranı hızla artmaktadır. Bu duruma uyum gösterebilme kabiliyeti, gelişen ülke ekonomilerinin başarısını etkileyen önemli faktörlerdendir. Bundan dolayı her ülke dünya ekonomisindeki yerlerini güçlendirebilmek veya koruyabilmek için çeşitli politikalar geliştirmektedirler. Özel ekonomi bölgeleri, ileri teknoloji üretimine yönelimi sağlamaları, etkin yönetim yapıları, lojistik kabiliyetleri ve ARGE altyapıları nedeniyle bu kapsamda önemli bir araç olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Konya Ovası bölgesinde de özel ekonomi bölgelerinin kurulmasına yönelik bir istek ve bu konuda çeşitli araştırmalar mevcuttur. Özel ekonomi bölgelerinin (ÖEB) nitelikleri ve kurguları ülkeden ülkeye değiştiğinden, bölgenin güçlü ve zayıf yönlerinin ortaya konulması ilk aşama olarak görülebilir. Bu noktada bölge uzmanlarının görüşlerinin yansıtılması, bölgenin beklentilerinin anlaşılmasında ve bölgeye özel ÖEB kurgusunun yapılabilmesinde önemlidir. Bu gerekçelerden dolayı 129 davetli uzman ile bir çalıştay gerçekleştirilmiş ve Ortak Akıl Platformu adımları ile sistematik şekilde uzmanlarla GZFT analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Uzmanlar ile yapılan çalışmanın ilk aşamasında GZFT çalışması gerçekleştirilmiş, ikinci aşamasında ise belirlenen sıkıntılara yönelik öneri geliştirme çalışması gerçekleştirilmiştir. GZFT çalışmasının sonucunda bölgenin konum avantajı, üretim kapasiteleri, maliyet avantajları gibi güçlü ve fırsatlar ortaya çıkmış. Bürokrasi, kurumsallaşma, nitelikli istihdam, limana mesafe gibi başlıkların ise tehdit veya zayıf yön olarak gösterilmiştir. Bu çalışma kapsamında elde edilmiş olan bulgular bölgede kurulması muhtemel olan ÖEB’e yönelik beklentiyi ortaya koymuştur. Bu nedenle, makale çalışması ÖEB ile ilgili bir ön çalışma olarak kurgulanmıştır. The share of medium and high technology products in world trade is increasing rapidly. The ability to adapt to this situation is an important factor affecting the success of developing country economies. Therefore, each country develops various policies to protect its place in the world economy. Special economic zones (SEZ) are important tools in this context due to their orientation towards advanced technology production, effective management qualifications, logistics capabilities and R&D capabilities. There is also a discussion for the establishment of Special Economic Zones in Konya Region and there are various researches on this subject. Since the characteristics and the structure of special economic zones have changed from country to country, understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of the region can be regarded as the first stage. At this point it is important to reflect the views of the region experts, to understand the expectations of the region, and to make the special SEZ concept for the region. Due to these reasons, a workshop was held with 129 invited experts and a SWOT analysis was conducted with these experts in a systematic manner with the common knowledge platform steps. In the first phase of the workshop, the SWOT study was carried out. In the second phase, solution discussions for the determined problems in the first phase were carried out. As a result of the SWOT study, strong and opportunities such as location advantage, production capacities and cost advantages of the region emerged. Headings such as bureaucracy, institutionalization, lack of qualified employment and distance to the port are shown as threats or weaknesses. The findings obtained in this study revealed the expectation for the SEZ which is likely to be established in the region. For this reason, the article was designed as a preliminary study on SEZ.

This study determines the qualities of atmospheric wind field data in comparison with wind measurements at five locations along the Black Sea coast. For this purpose, four different wind fields were obtained from three different weather centers (NCEP, NASA, and ECMWF). Three of these are reanalyzed winds (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis CFSR, Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications MERRA, ECMWF reanalyses ERA-Interim), and one is an operational dataset (ECMWF operational). Their performances were determined using the wind measurements from 2000 to 2014 at five coastal locations along the southern coastline of the Black Sea (Kumköy, Amasra, Sinop, Giresun, Hopa) and from 2006 to 2009 at the offshore location (Gloria) off the coast of Romania. The performances of these wind fields were determined based on statistical characteristics (mean, standard deviation and variation coefficient, etc.), the statistical error analysis for all data and for different wind speed intervals, the wind roses and the probability distributions. Additionally, long-term variations of the yearly error values (SI and bias) of wind speeds from wind data sources during 2000 - 2014 were discussed. Finally, it was concluded that the CFSR wids give the best performance at most stations. The ECMWF datasets yield better results along the western side but the CFSR wind fields have shown better performances along the eastern side of the Black Sea coast and at the Gloria offshore location.

Knowledge of coastal storm regimes is essential to ensure an economic and sustainable development in the coastal area. In recent decades, wave storms have been responsible for several fatalities and economic losses along the Algiers coast. The aim of this paper is to present a detailed analysis on wave storm events during the past 40 years, including an assessment of the potential impacts of various storm events along the Algiers coasts according to their intensity and direction based on the different historical events. Thus, this paper gives an estimation of return periods of extreme significant wave heights and extreme storm events. For this purpose, the wave storm events occurring in the Algiers coasts, based on the storm power index (SPI) developed by Dolan and Davis (1992), were characterized and classified. Five storm categories were defined in terms of their power index, subdivided into 31 categories, taking into consideration their propagation directions. The temporal analysis shows a progressive increase in the number of storm events and their intensity during the last decade, which explains the increased damage recorded recently in the Algiers coastlines. A spatial analysis of these extreme and catastrophic storms being responsible in these damages has shown that the nature of coastal storm damages on the local scale depends on several factors, mainly power of these storms and their direction; in view of the complex morphology of the Algiers coastlines. These two factors were considered during the extreme value analysis, and allowed us to estimate the return period of the storm events already observed based on their SPI and direction. A return period of 59 years has been estimated for the catastrophic storm of 2015, which caused significant erosion resulting a loss of more than 15 000 m2 of coastal lands.

This study aims to present an evaluation and implementation of a high-resolution SWAN wind wave hindcast model forced by the CFSR wind fields in the west Mediterranean basin, taking into account the recent developments in wave modelling as the new source terms package ST6. For this purpose, the SWAN model was calibrated based on one-year wave observations of Azeffoune buoy (Algerian coast) and validated against eleven wave buoys measurements through the West Mediterranean basin. For the calibration process, we focused on the whitecapping dissipation coefficient C-ds and on the exponential wind wave growth and whitecapping dissipation source terms. The statistical error analysis of the calibration results led to conclude that the SWAN model calibration corrected the underestimation of the significant wave height hindcasts in the default mode and improved its accuracy in the West Mediterranean basin. The exponential wind wave growth of Komen et al (1984) and the whitecapping dissipation source terms of Janssen (1991) with C-ds = 1.0 have been thus recommended for the western Mediterranean basin. The comparison of the simulation results obtained using this calibrated parameters against eleven measurement buoys showed a high performance of the calibrated SWAN model with an average scatter index of 30% for the significant wave heights and 19% for the mean wave period. This calibrated SWAN model will constitute a practical wave hindcast model with high spatial resolution ((similar to)3 km) and high accuracy in the Algerian basin, which will allow us to proceed to a finer mesh size using the SWAN nested grid system in this area.

8th International Strategic Management Conference -- JUN 21-23, 2012 -- Barcelona, SPAIN, WOS: 000312875900156, Nowadays, fluctuations of costs and costumer demands make it harder for firms to respond the market conditions effectively and cause customer and profit loss. In modern supply chain process, products must be delivered to customers in the shortest possible delivery time and this delivery time must be procured with a minimum number of stocks. Distribution for small amounts of products in a wide variety must be more frequently and more rapidly. This time constraint has a direct impact on the distribution and warehousing management. Although the importance of warehouses is emphasized in the literature, determining the size of warehouses is not mentioned enough. In this context, determining the size for a new flow type warehouse and a new u-type warehouse has been tried in this paper. A warehouse design which minimizing the total picker distance has been studied analytically with taking the number of doors into account. As a result of the calculations, different interior layouts have been proposed for the flow type warehouses and u-type warehouses. (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the 8th International Strategic Management Conference, Beykent Univ Istanbul, Gebze Inst Technol, Emerald Publishing Grp, Elsevier Ltd Publishing Grp

This paper aims to analyze the main causes of disputes which occur in the construction industry. In order to reach this aim, a literature review was undertaken to identify the common construction disputes. The disputes derived from a cross-section of the literature, were classified into main categories and the main causes of construction disputes were determined. Finally, an analysis was carried out using the analytical network process (ANP) approach to determine their relative importance.