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2. Citizen Science for the Prediction of Climate Extremes in South Africa and Namibia

Author

Willem A. Landman, Emma R. M. Archer, and Mark A. Tadross

Subjects
Southern Africa, seasonal climate forecasts, co-production, profits, farm management, Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract

Seasonal-to-interannual variations of rainfall over southern Africa, key to predicting extreme climatic events, are predictable over certain regions and during specific periods of the year. This predictability had been established by testing seasonal forecasts from models of varying complexity against official station rainfall records typically managed by weather services, as well as against gridded data sets compiled through a range of efforts. Members of the general public, including farmers, additionally have extended records of rainfall data, often as daily values spanning several decades, which are recorded and updated regularly at their farms and properties. In this paper, we show how seasonal forecast modelers may use site recorded farm rainfall records for the development of skillful forecast systems specific to the farm. Although the uptake of seasonal forecasts in areas with modest predictability such as southern Africa may be challenging, we will show that there is potential for financial gain and improved disaster risk farm management by co-developing with farmers forecast systems based on a combination of state-of-the-art climate models and farm rainfall data. This study investigates the predictability of seasonal rainfall extremes at five commercial farms in southern Africa, four of which are in the austral summer rainfall areas, while one is located in the winter rainfall area of the southwestern Cape. We furthermore calculate a measure of cumulative profits at each farm, assuming a “fair odds” return on investments made according to forecast probabilities. The farmers are presented with hindcasts (re-forecasts) at their farms, and potential financial implications if the hindcasts were used in decision-making. They subsequently described how they would use forecasts for their farm, based on their own data.

Published
2020
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3. Actions to halt biodiversity loss generally benefit the climate

Author

Yunne‐Jai Shin, Guy F. Midgley, Emma R. M. Archer, Almut Arneth, David K. A. Barnes, Lena Chan, Shizuka Hashimoto, Ove Hoegh‐Guldberg, Gregory Insarov, Paul Leadley, Lisa A. Levin, Hien T. Ngo, Ram Pandit, Aliny P. F. Pires, Hans‐Otto Pörtner, Alex D. Rogers, Robert J. Scholes, Josef Settele, Pete Smith, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Stellenbosch University, University of Pretoria [South Africa], Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), University of Queensland [Brisbane], Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California (UC), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), The University of Western Australia (UWA), Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro [Rio de Janeiro] (UERJ), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Universität Bremen, University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg] (WITS), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), University of Aberdeen, European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Grant Number: 869300, Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research. Grant Number: CRRP2018-03MY-Hashimoto, REVOcean, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature. Grant Number: 14200103, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences. Grant Number: 0148-2019-0007, Environment Research and Technology Development Fund. Grant Number: S-15, and ANR-18-EBI4-0003,SOMBEE,Scenarios Of Marine Biodiversity and Evolution under Exploitation and climate change(2018)

Subjects
Carbon sequestration, Food-production, Conservation of Natural Resources, restoration, Convention on biological diversity, Tropical forests, Climate Change, Marine protected area, [SDV.BID]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity, Biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, Climate change mitigation, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, 11. Sustainability, ddc:550, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem services, Humans, nature-based solutions, Ecosystem, General Environmental Science, Global and Planetary Change, Forest degradation, Ecology, land degradation, Nature-based solutions, Nitrogen dynamics, Biodiversity, 15. Life on land, Biological Sciences, carbon sequestration, Earth sciences, Carbon stocks, 13. Climate action, Restoration, Methane emission, Quality of Life, biodiversity conservation, convention on biological diversity, Environmental Sciences, Greenhouse-gas emissions
Abstract

International audience; The two most urgent and interlinked environmental challenges humanity faces are climate change and biodiversity loss. We are entering a pivotal decade for both the international biodiversity and climate change agendas with the sharpening of ambitious strategies and targets by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Within their respective Conventions, the biodiversity and climate interlinked challenges have largely been addressed separately. There is evidence that conservation actions that halt, slow or reverse biodiversity loss can simultaneously slow anthropogenic mediated climate change significantly. This review highlights conservation actions which have the largest potential for mitigation of climate change. We note that conservation actions have mainly synergistic benefits and few antagonistic trade-offs with climate change mitigation. Specifically, we identify direct co-benefits in 14 out of the 21 action targets of the draft post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity, notwithstanding the many indirect links that can also support both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. These relationships are context and scale-dependent; therefore, we showcase examples of local biodiversity conservation actions that can be incentivized, guided and prioritized by global objectives and targets. The close interlinkages between biodiversity, climate change mitigation, other nature's contributions to people and good quality of life are seldom as integrated as they should be in management and policy. This review aims to re-emphasize the vital relationships between biodiversity conservation actions and climate change mitigation in a timely manner, in support to major Conferences of Parties that are about to negotiate strategic frameworks and international goals for the decades to come.

Published
2022
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