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Objective To describe change in costs to different funders over time for women giving birth in Queensland between 2012 and 2018. Methods A whole-of-population linked administrative dataset was used that contained all health service use in Queensland for women who gave birth between 1 July 2012 and 30 June 2018 and their babies. Aggregated costs for mother and baby from pregnancy to 12 months postpartum were used to compare the change in costs to funders over time. Results There was an increase in mean total cost to all funders per birth in the public system and private system from 2012 to 2018. North West Hospital and Health Service (HHS) had the highest mean total cost (in Australian dollars) in 2018 (A$42 353), while home births had the lowest (A$6105). For the majority of HHSs the proportion of births with a positive birth outcome (as defined by a composite outcome measure) has remained largely static or declined during this time period. Cairns and Hinterland HHS and Townsville HHS had the largest declines of 15% and 16% respectively, while mean total cost to all funders rose 36.39% and 46.41%, respectively. Conclusions There has been an increase over time across Queensland in the cost of childbirth in public hospitals and in the private system, while the cost of home birth has remained static. For most HHSs this increase in cost is also associated with little change or a decline in the percentage of births with a positive outcome. Increases in cost are therefore not being translated into better outcomes for women and their babies. Routine performance monitoring of cost, quality and safety should be adopted to ensure the provision of high value maternity care in Australia.

The perinatal period is a time when provision of responsive care offers a life course opportunity for positive change to improve health outcomes for mothers, infants and families. Australian perinatal systems carry the legacy of settler-colonialism, manifesting in racist events and interactions that First Nations parents encounter daily. The dominance of a western risk lens, and conscious and unconscious bias in the child protection workforce, sustains disproportionately high numbers of First Nations infants being removed from their parents' care. Cascading medical interventions compound existing stressors and magnify health inequities for First Nations women. Critical discourse was informed by Indigenous ways of knowing, being and doing via targeted dialogue with a group of First Nations and non-Indigenous experts in Australian perinatal care who are co-authors on this paper. Dynamic discussion evolved from a series of yarning circles, supplemented by written exchanges and individual yarns as themes were consolidated. First Nations maternity services prioritise self-determination, partnership, strengths and communication and have demonstrated positive outcomes with, and high satisfaction from First Nations women. Mainstream perinatal settings could be significantly enhanced by embracing similar principles and models of care. The Australian Anti-racism in Perinatal Practice (AAPP) Alliance calls for urgent transformations to Australian perinatal models of care whereby non-Indigenous health policy makers, managers and clinicians take a proactive role in identifying and redressing ethnocentrism, judgemental and culturally blind practices, reframing the risk narrative, embedding strength-based approaches and intentionally prioritising engagement and connectedness within service delivery. [Abstract copyright: Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.]

BACKGROUND: There is growing concern around unnecessary intervention (particularly caesarean section) at birth in high-income countries. Caseload midwifery care aims to offset this, but is perceived to be costly to health services. AIM: To use epidemiological and health economic techniques to estimate health outcomes and cost-savings of different levels of equivalent full time (EFT) midwives working in caseload midwifery care. METHODS: Two simulations were conducted - one assuming 10 EFT midwives working in a caseload model, with 35 women per caseload, and one assuming 50 EFT midwives working in a caseload model, with 45 women per caseload. Both were based on a sample of 5000 women. The main model inputs included rates of health outcomes for women (caesarean section, epidural anaesthesia, and episiotomy) and infants (low birthweight and admissions to special care nursery (SCN) or neonatal intensive care unit (NICU)), and the cost savings associated with health outcome avoidance. FINDINGS: The first simulation estimated 27 fewer caesarean sections, 12 fewer epidurals, 12 fewer episiotomies, 10 fewer low birthweight births, and 23 fewer infants admitted to SCN or NICU annually, at a total cost saving of AU$1,874,715. The second simulation estimated 173 fewer caesarean sections, 76 fewer epidurals, 76 fewer episiotomies, 65 fewer low birthweight births, and 150 fewer infants admitted to SCN or NICU annually, at a total cost saving of AU$12,051,741. CONCLUSION: This study provides local-level decision-makers with a decision-tool to calculate the potentially avoidable health outcomes and cost savings associated with implementing caseload midwifery care in their own service.

Background: There has been a trend toward birth at earlier gestational age and increased use of both induction of labour (IOL) and caesarean section (CS) for women with term pregnancies in many countries, particularly high-income countries. Unnecessary use of obstetric interventions during pregnancy and birth is associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes for women and babies, as well as adding financial costs to the health care systems. Existing evidence regarding the association between IOL at term and CS is mixed and conflicting, and little evidence has been known about the differential effect at each gestation between 37 – 41 weeks, separately among nulliparous and parous women. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the association between IOL and primary CS for women with singleton term pregnancies, compared with expectant management (EM) of pregnancy. Methods: We performed an analysis of population-based retrospective cohort data on women who gave birth in one Australian state (Queensland), between 01/07/2012 and 30/06/2018. All no-labour births (i.e., prelabour CS), multiple births (e.g., twins or triplets), and women with a prior CS were excluded. Five sub-datasets were created based on the time of birth following IOL (37 - 37 ; 38 - 38 ; 39 - 39 ; 40 - 40 ; and 41 - 41 ). Unadjusted relative risk (RR) and adjusted relative risk (aRR) were calculated in each sub-dataset to explore the risk of primary CS following IOL, compared to EM. Analysis was stratified by parity (nulliparas versus paras). Sensitivity analyses were conducted by limiting to women with low-risk pregnancies. Results: The risk of primary CS following IOL was significantly higher for women with singleton pregnancies, compared with EM, before or after adjustment, at 38 - 38 (nulliparas: aRR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.18; paras: aRR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.25 - 1.46), at 39 - 39 (nulliparas: aRR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.14 - 1.22; paras: aRR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.24 - 1.49), at 40 - 40 (nulliparas: aRR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.21 - 1.29; paras: aRR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.26 - 1.56) and at 41 - 41 (nulliparas: aRR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.36 - 1.48; paras: aRR=1.61, 95% CI: 1.40 - 1.84). After adjusting for potential confounders, there was no significant difference in the risk of primary CS at 37 - 37 for nulliparas who had IOL and EM (aRR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.95 - 1.12). Results remain stable in the sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Our results demonstrated that the risk of primary CS following IOL was higher at each weeks’ gestation between 38 - 38 – 41 - 41 for both nulliparas and paras with singleton pregnancies, compared with EM, and the risk increased with gestational age. This has important implications to support shared decision making between women and health professionals regarding best clinical management and optimal timing of birth.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. FINDINGS: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6-77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144-172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86-145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68-111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58-82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4-5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. INTERPRETATION: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. FUNDING: The National Institutes of Health.

Refereed/Peer-reviewed Chronic low back pain is difficult to treat and despite increased spending on health services, clinical outcomes for people with low back pain have not improved. Innovative, large scale initiatives seem necessary to stem the cost of low back pain. Psychological health contributes to the development and persistence of chronic low back pain and psychological interventions are important in the management of low back pain. Given the contribution of psychological health to low back pain development and management, it raises the question; can we support psychological health in later life by bolstering emotional development in early life, and reduce the burden of this common condition? Positive early life experiences, including those induced by extended paid parental leave, could bolster emotional development and support the psychological health necessary to manage low backpain in later life. We present the current state of evidence demonstrating the potential value of increasing support for parent-child relationships in early life to reduce the burden of low back pain in future generations. The current evidence is limited to cross-sectional associations, but strong preclinical data clearly shows the potential negative impacts of maternal separation on rodent pup health that compels consideration in human populations.

IMPORTANCE: Structured antenatal diet and physical activity interventions have been shown to be associated with reduced adverse pregnancy outcomes and recommended to be routinely offered to all pregnant women. The health cost implications of population-level implementation are unclear. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the budget impact associated with integrating structured diet and physical activity interventions into routine antenatal care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This economic evaluation was conducted from the perspective of Australian health funders. An open-source decision-tree model was constructed to compare the projected budget outcomes of implementing lifestyle intervention vs usual care. Scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were completed. The study setting was Australian health services, and the study population was all Australian women projected to give birth in the years 2022 to 2026 (approximately 330 000 per year). INTERVENTIONS: Structured diet and physical activity intervention provided by trained health professionals, integrated into routine antenatal care. Comparator was usual care, which currently in Australia does not include routine structured lifestyle interventions. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Return on investment (ROI) ratio for lifestyle intervention (cost of intervention divided by cost savings attributable to reduced maternal and infant adverse events) from the perspective of Australian health care funders. Adverse events were obtained from a published meta-analysis and population data. Costs were estimated from aggregate trial data and clinical pathways and valued at the year incurred. RESULTS: Intervention offered an ROI ratio of 4.75 over the 5-year program; hence every Australian dollar spent on implementation produced an estimated return of A$4.75. The projected total 5-year intervention cost was A$205 million ($151 million), with cost offsets (from reduced incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes) of A$1022 million ($755 million), and health budget savings of A$807 million (95% CI, A$129 million to A$1639 million) ($596 million [95% CI, $95 million to $1211 million]); 93.3% of the 10 000 iterations were within cost saving, and results were robust to scenario and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This economic evaluation found that providing access to structured diet and physical activity lifestyle interventions for all pregnant Australian women was estimated to provide strong return on investment for health funders. The open-source model developed can be used by other jurisdictions and health services to explore cost implications of implementation within their patient population.

Economic evaluations are increasing being conducted in the maternity setting, with many randomised controlled trials conducted with a health economic component. A key criticism of economic evaluation in maternity care is a lack of robust data collection and measurement, inconsistencies in methodology and lack of adherence to reporting guidelines. This article provides a guide to the design of economic evaluations alongside clinical trials in maternal health. We cover economic concepts and considerations for the maternity setting and provide examples from the United Kingdom and Australia. We seek to improve the quality, consistency, and transparency of economic evaluations in maternal health.

Purpose of Review Reproductive-aged women (aged 19 to 50 years) are a key population warranting focused research for the prevention of overweight and obesity. This review highlights the importance of addressing weight before, during and after pregnancy. Recent Findings Obesity decreases fertility during the preconception period; increases the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes including gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia and caesarean section and postpartum weight retention; and increases the long-term health risks for both the mother and offspring. Despite overwhelming efficacy evidence on solutions, there are significant implementation gaps in translating this evidence into pragmatic models of care and real-world solutions. Interventions during preconception, pregnancy and postpartum are likely to be cost-effective or cost-saving, with future investigation needed in the preconception and postpartum period. Summary International clinical guidelines and public health policies are needed for a concerted effort to prevent unhealthy weight gain in these life stages and to reverse the significant adverse health outcomes for women and the next generation.

To assess the literature on men's preferences and perceptions regarding prostate cancer radiation therapy.A scoping review was undertaken as per JBI guidelines. Searches were conducted in PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus and Science Direct with search terms including "prostate cancer," "radiotherapy," "radiation therapy," "radiation oncology," "patient preferences," "patient perceptions" and "patient experience." The resultant studies were mapped and grouped according to the emergent themes and pathway stages.A total of 779 titles and abstracts were screened by two independent reviewers. Fifty-two full-text studies were reviewed, with 27 eligible for inclusion. There were 4 pre-treatment, 13 during treatment and 10 post-treatment studies covering broad themes of information needs (n = 3), preferences and decisions (n = 6), general experiences (n = 8), side effects (n = 6), and support (n = 4). There were a mix of methodologies, including 11 qualitative, 14 quantitative (including four preference studies), one mixed methods and one narrative review.There were only four preference studies, with the remaining 23 reporting on perceptions. Overall, there is a paucity of literature regarding patient preferences and perceptions of prostate cancer radiation therapy, particularly when considering how many clinical and technical studies are published in the area. This highlights opportunities for future research.

Preconception health affects fertility, pregnancy, and future health outcomes but public awareness of this is low. Our aims were to rank priorities for preconception care (PCC), develop strategies to address these priorities, and establish values to guide future work in preconception healthcare in Australia. A Delphi technique involved two rounds of online voting and mid-round workshops. Inputs were a scoping review of PCC guidelines, a priority setting framework and existing networks that focus on health. During July and August, 2021, 23 multidisciplinary experts in PCC or social care, including a consumer advocate, completed the Delphi technique. Ten priority areas were identified, with health behaviors, medical history, weight, and reproductive health ranked most highly. Six strategies were identified. Underpinning values encompassed engagement with stakeholders, a life course view of preconception health, an integrated multi-sectorial approach and a need for large scale collaboration to implement interventions that deliver impact across health care, social care, policy and population health. Priority populations were considered within the social determinants of health. Health behaviors, medical history, weight, and reproductive health were ranked highly as PCC priorities. Key strategies to address priorities should be implemented with consideration of values that improve the preconception health of all Australians.

Poor pregnancy outcomes affect a child's lifelong health and disadvantaged populations are at higher risk of poor pregnancy outcomes. Preconception care aims to improve pregnancy outcomes by managing conditions and risks prior to conception. Given known inequities in pregnancy outcomes, the adoption of preconception care may benefit disadvantaged populations. Health economics plays an important role in the implementation of interventions, as economic evaluations seek to identify the most efficient and equitable care options. This review aimed to identify the cost-effectiveness of preconception care and how equity has been considered in these evaluations. A systematic review of literature published between 2012–2022 was undertaken to identify studies that evaluate the economic outcomes of preconception care. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were manually searched for consideration of equity in the economic evaluation analysis. Costs were presented and a narrative synthesis of studies reporting on outcomes of equity was conducted. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria, and only two reported on aspects of equity, specifically ethnicity. Considering the significant disparities in pregnancy outcomes among disadvantaged populations, aspects of equity are important to consider when implementing and evaluating preconception interventions. Therefore, it is recommended that future research focuses on the cost-effectiveness of preconception care and that these evaluations incorporate aspects of equity.

OBJECTIVE The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Initiative recently introduced universal subsidized CGM funding for people with type 1 diabetes under 21 years of age in Australia. We thus aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this CGM Initiative based on national implementation data and project the economic impact of extending the subsidy to all age-groups. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We used a patient-level Markov model to simulate disease progression for young people with type 1 diabetes and compared government-subsidized access to CGM with the previous user-funded system. Three years of real-world clinical input data were sourced from analysis of the Australasian Diabetes Data Network and National Diabetes Services Scheme registries. Costs were considered from the Australian health care system’s perspective. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to future costs and outcomes. Uncertainty was evaluated with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS Government-subsidized CGM funding for young people with type 1 diabetes compared with a completely user-funded model resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AUD 39,518 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Most simulations (85%) were below the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained in Australia. Sensitivity analyses indicated that base-case results were robust, though strongly impacted by the cost of CGM devices. Extending the CGM Initiative throughout adulthood resulted in an ICER of AUD 34,890 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS Providing subsidized access to CGM for people with type 1 diabetes was found to be cost-effective compared with a completely user-funded model in Australia.

IntroductionWe showed in a Phase 2 RCT that oral Sildenafil during term labour halves the need for operative birth for suspected fetal distress. To assess if Sildenafil reduces adverse perinatal outcomes, we describe a Phase 3 RCT (iSEARCH) and the rationale for an individual participant data prospective meta-analysis (IPD PMA) of RCTs in high-income countries and a mega-trial in low- and middle-income countries.Methods and analysisiSEARCH will enrol 3200 women in term labour, yielding >80% power to determine whether oral administration of up to three 50 mg doses of Sildenafil versus placebo reduces the relative risk of intrapartum hypoxia, determined as a primary composite endpoint of ten perinatal outcomes, by 35% (from 7% to 4.55%). We also outline the rationale for (i) an IPD PMA of RCTs in about 14,000 women in Australia and other countries with low perinatal mortality rates which would yield 90% power to test if oral Sildenafil achieves a more moderate and realistic reduction of 20% in the relative risk of this composite endpoint and (ii) a mega-trial in about 50,000 women in countries with moderate or high perinatal mortality rates to test if oral Sildenafil achieves a similarly moderate and realistic 20% reduction in the relative risk of a composite endpoint comprising intrapartum stillbirth or 7-day neonatal mortality. Secondary aims will be to evaluate the rate of operative birth for fetal distress, its cost-effectiveness, and developmental and educational outcomes.

IntroductionWoman-centred care is the right of every woman receiving maternity care, irrespective of where care is being received and who is providing care. This protocol describes a planned systematic review that will identify, describe and critically appraise the psychometric properties of maternity patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) and patient-reported experience measures (PREMs). The woman-centricity of PROM and PREM development and content validation (ie, the extent to which women were involved in these processes) will also be assessed. This information will be used to develop a maternity PROMs and PREMs database to support service and system performance measurement, and value-based maternity care initiatives.Methods and analysisThis study will be guided by the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) guideline for systematic reviews of outcome measurement instruments. Studies identified via MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus, PsycINFO and EMBASE describing the development, content validation and/or psychometric evaluation of PROMs and PREMs specifically designed for maternity populations throughout pregnancy, childbirth and postnatal periods will be considered if published from 2010 onward, in English, and available in full text. The COSMIN risk of bias checklist will be used to evaluate the quality of studies reporting on the development, content validation and/or psychometric evaluation of PROMs and PREMs. COSMIN criteria for good content validity will be used to assess the woman-centricity of PROM and PREM development and content validation studies. COSMIN standards of good psychometric properties will be used to evaluate the validity and reliability of the identified instruments.Ethics and disseminationEthical permission for this research is not required. The findings of this research will be submitted for publication in an international, peer-reviewed journal. Abstracts for national and international conference presentations will also be submitted. The proposed maternity PROMs and PREMs database will be freely accessible online, and developed with consumer input to ensure its usefulness to a range of maternity care stakeholders.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42021288854.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the total economic impact of peripheral intravenous catheter (PIVC) or cannula insertion and use in adult Australian EDs, including those cannulas that remain unused for therapeutic purposes. METHODS: Searches on Australian government websites were conducted to find rates of insertion, complications and cost of cannula; following this, gaps in national data sets were filled with MEDLINE and PubMed searches to estimate the total cost of cannula use in Australian EDs. Once the data were collected, totals were combined to establish an estimated cost for the listed categories. RESULTS: The estimated cost of cannulation in Australia may be up to A$594 million per year, including the cost of insertion (equipment and staff), cost of complications such as Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and phlebitis, and patient-centred costs (lost patient productivity, infiltration, occlusion and dislodgement). Approximately A$305.9 million is attributed to unused cannulas and approximately 11 790 days of clinician time is spent annually inserting cannula that remains idle. CONCLUSION: The figures developed in the present study represent an important educational opportunity to encourage thoughtful consideration of all interventions, no matter how small. ED cannula insertion represents a large economic and health cost to Australia's health system, many of which remain unused. There are no national data sets that record complications associated with PIVCs and we highlight the urgent need for improved data.

The increased integration of digital health into maternity care-alongside growing use of, and access to, personal digital technology among pregnant women-warrants an investigation of the cost-effectiveness of mHealth interventions used by women during pregnancy and the methodological quality of the cost-effectiveness studies.A systematic search was conducted to identify peer-reviewed studies published in the last ten years (2011-2021) reporting on the costs or cost-effectiveness of mHealth interventions used by women during pregnancy. Available data related to program costs, total incremental costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were reported in 2020 United States Dollars. The quality of cost-effectiveness studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS).Nine articles reporting on eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Direct intervention costs ranged from $7.04 to $86 per woman, total program costs ranged from $241,341 to $331,136 and total incremental costs ranged from -$21.16 to $1.12 million per woman. The following ICERs were reported: $2168 per DALY averted, $203.44 per woman ceasing smoking, and $3475 per QALY gained. The full economic evaluation studies (n = 4) were moderate to high in quality and all reported the mHealth intervention as cost-effective. Other studies (n = 4) were low to moderate in quality and reported low costs or cost savings associated with the implementation of the mHealth intervention.Preliminary evidence suggests mHealth interventions may be cost-effective and "low-cost" but more evidence is needed to ascertain the cost-effectiveness of mHealth interventions regarding positive maternal and child health outcomes and longer-term health service utilisation.

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6-77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583).

OBJECTIVE Hybrid closed-loop (HCL) therapy is an efficacious management strategy for young people with type 1 diabetes. However, high costs prevent equitable access. We thus sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HCL therapy compared with current care among young people with type 1 diabetes in Australia. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A patient-level Markov model was constructed to simulate disease progression for young people with type 1 diabetes using HCL therapy versus current care, with follow-up from 12 until 25 years of age. Downstream health and economic consequences were compared via decision analysis. Treatment effects and proportions using different technologies to define “current care” were based primarily on data from an Australian pediatric randomized controlled trial. Transition probabilities and utilities for health states were sourced from published studies. Costs were considered from the Australian health care system’s perspective. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to future costs and outcomes. Uncertainty was evaluated with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS Use of HCL therapy resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of Australian dollars (AUD) $32,789 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The majority of simulations (93.3%) were below the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD $50,000 per QALY gained in Australia. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the base-case results were robust. CONCLUSIONS In this first cost-effectiveness analysis of HCL technologies for the management of young people with type 1 diabetes, HCL therapy was found to be cost-effective compared with current care in Australia.

There are several options for real-time prostate monitoring during radiation therapy including fiducial markers (FMs) and transperineal ultrasound (TPUS). However, the patient experience for these procedures is very different. This study aimed to determine patient preferences around various aspects of prostate image-guidance, focusing on FMs and TPUS.A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted, describing the image-guidance approach by: pain, cost, accuracy, side effects, additional appointments, and additional time. Participants were males with prostate cancer (PCa) and from the general Australian population. A DCE survey required participants to make hypothetical choices in each of 8 choice sets. Multinomial logit modelling and Latent Class Analysis (LCA) were used to analyse the responses. Marginal willingness to pay (mWTP) was calculated.476 respondents completed the survey (236 PCa patients and 240 general population). The most important attributes for both cohorts were pain, cost and accuracy (p 0.01). PCa patients were willing to pay more to avoid the worst pain than the general population, and willing to pay more for increased accuracy. LCA revealed 3 groups: 2 were focused more on the process-related attributes of pain and cost, and the third was focused on the clinical efficacy attributes of accuracy and side effects.Both cohorts preferred less cost and pain and improved accuracy, with men with PCa valuing accuracy more than the general population. In addition to the clinical and technical evidence, radiation oncology centres should consider the preferences of patients when considering choice of image-guidance techniques.

Identification of individuals with increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) is important. However, algorithms specific to the elderly are lacking. Data were analysed from a randomised trial involving 18,548 participants ≥ 70 years old (mean age 75.4 years), without prior cardiovascular disease events, dementia or physical disability. MACE included coronary heart disease death, fatal or nonfatal ischaemic stroke or myocardial infarction. Potential predictors tested were based on prior evidence and using a machine-learning approach. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate 5-year predicted risk, and discrimination evaluated from receiver operating characteristic curves. Calibration was also assessed, and the findings internally validated using bootstrapping. External validation was performed in 25,138 healthy, elderly individuals in the primary care environment. During median follow-up of 4.7 years, 594 MACE occurred. Predictors in the final model included age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), non-HDL-c, serum creatinine, diabetes and intake of antihypertensive agents. With variable selection based on machine-learning, age, sex and creatinine were the most important predictors. The final model resulted in an area under the curve (AUC) of 68.1 (95% confidence intervals 65.9; 70.4). The model had an AUC of 67.5 in internal and 64.2 in external validation. The model rank-ordered risk well but underestimated absolute risk in the external validation cohort. A model predicting incident MACE in healthy, elderly individuals includes well-recognised, potentially reversible risk factors and notably, renal function. Calibration would be necessary when used in other populations.

Individuals diagnosed with breast cancer have the highest rates of survival among all cancer types. Due to high survival, the costs of breast cancer to different healthcare funders are of interest. This study aimed to describe the cost to public hospital and private health funders and individuals due to hospital and emergency department (ED) admissions, as well Medicare items and pharmaceuticals over five years for Queensland women with breast cancer. We used a linked administrative dataset, CancerCostMod, limited to Queensland female breast cancer diagnoses between July 2011 and June 2013 aged 18 years or over who survived for 5 years (n = 5383). Each record was linked to Queensland Health Admitted Patient Data Collection, Emergency Department Information Systems, Medicare Benefits Schedule, and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme records between July 2011 and June 2018. Total costs for different healthcare funders as a result of breast cancer diagnoses were reported, with high costs and service use identified in the first six months following a breast cancer diagnosis. After the first six months post-diagnosis, the financial burdens incurred by different healthcare funders for breast cancer diagnoses in Queensland remain steady over a long period. Recommendations for reducing long term costs are discussed.

This paper provides a detailed description of the construction of Health&WealthMOD (Version II). It is Australia’s only microsimulation model of health and illness and their impacts on labour force participation, income, wealth and government revenue and expenditure. In this paper, we describe Health&WealthMOD (Version II) and its architecture, the application of the model, and some of the results it has produced.