Search

Background In recent years, Ecuador and other South American countries have experienced an increase in arboviral diseases. A rise in dengue infections was followed by introductions of chikungunya and Zika, two viruses never before seen in many of these areas. Furthermore, the latest socioeconomic and political instability in Venezuela and the mass migration of its population into the neighboring countries has given rise to concerns of infectious disease spillover and escalation of arboviral spread in the region. Results We performed phylogeographic analyses of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus genomes sampled from a surveillance site in Ecuador in 2014–2015, along with genomes from the surrounding countries. Our results revealed at least two introductions of DENV, in 2011 and late 2013, that initially originated from Venezuela and/or Colombia. The introductions were subsequent to increases in the influx of Venezuelan and Colombian citizens into Ecuador, which in 2013 were 343% and 214% higher than in 2009, respectively. However, we show that Venezuela has historically been an important source of DENV dispersal in this region, even before the massive exodus of its population, suggesting already established paths of viral distribution. Like DENV, CHIKV was introduced into Ecuador at multiple time points in 2013–2014, but unlike DENV, these introductions were associated with the Caribbean. Our findings indicated no direct CHIKV connection between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela as of 2015, suggesting that CHIKV was, at this point, not following the paths of DENV spread. Conclusion Our results reveal that Ecuador is vulnerable to arbovirus import from many geographic locations, emphasizing the need of continued surveillance and more diversified prevention strategies. Importantly, increase in human movement along established paths of viral dissemination, combined with regional outbreaks and epidemics, may facilitate viral spread and lead to novel virus introductions. Thus, strengthening infectious disease surveillance and control along migration routes and improving access to healthcare for the vulnerable populations is of utmost importance.

One of the biggest threats to humanity are pandemics. In our global society they can rage around the world with an immense toll in terms of human, economic and social impact. Forecasting the spreading of a pandemic is, therefore, paramount in helping governments to enforce a number of social and economic measures, apt at curbing the pandemic and dealing with its aftermath. We demonstrate that the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics provides an effective and simple way to investigate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different regions of the world. The framework also allows for reliable projections on the impact of travel limitations and social distancing measures on global epidemic spread. We test and calibrate it on reported COVID-19 cases while unveiling the mechanism that governs the delay in the relative peaks of newly infected cases among different regions of the globe. We discover that social distancing measures are more effective than travel limitations across borders in delaying the epidemic peak. We further provide the link to compartmental models such as the time-honoured SIR-like models. We also show how to generalise the framework to account for the interactions across several regions of the world, replacing or complementing large scale simulations.

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000–3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0·64% (95% UI 0·41–0·74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000–1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36·4%), 150 000 (12 000–180 000) were treated (4·6% of the total infected population or 12·7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000–160 000) were cured (4·1%), and 57 900 (43 900–67 300) were newly infected (1·8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600–42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary. Funding Gilead Sciences.

The outcome after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is strongly affected by time delays. In this study, we sought to identify the impact of specific socioeconomic factors on time delays, subsequent STEMI management and outcomes in STEMI patients undergoing pPCI, who came from a well-defined region of the French part of Switzerland. A total of 402 consecutive patients undergoing pPCI for STEMI in a large tertiary hospital were retrospectively studied. Symptom-to-first-medical-contact time was analysed for the following socioeconomic factors: level of education, origin and marital status. Main exclusion criteria were: time delay beyond 12 hours, previous treatment with fibrinolytic agents or patients immediately referred for coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Therefore, 222 patients were finally included. At 1 year, there was no difference in mortality between the different socioeconomic groups. Furthermore, there was no difference in management characteristics between them. Symptom-to-first-medical-contact time was significantly longer for patients with a low level of education, Swiss citizens and unmarried patients, with median differences of 23 minutes, 18 minutes and 13 minutes, respectively (p

Data from observational cohorts may be influenced by population structure and loss to follow-up (LTFU). Quality of care may be associated with participation in cohort networks. We aimed to study the participation, characteristics and retention rates of immigrants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).We compared enrolment over time (1996-1999, 2000-2003 and 2004-2008) and LTFU between individuals from different geographical regions. In 2008, we performed a cross-sectional survey to investigate the proportion of individuals not participating in the SHCS but who were in care at SHCS institutions. Predictors for LTFU were analysed using Cox proportional hazard models, and those for nonparticipation using logistic regression.A total of 7840 individuals entered the SHCS during the observation period. The proportion of immigrants increased over time, especially the proportion of women from sub-Saharan Africa, which increased from 21 to 48% during the observation period. Overall LTFU was 3.76 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.58-3.95]/100, with the highest hazard ratio in men from sub-Saharan Africa (2.82/100 patient-years; 95% CI 2.30-3.46/100), compared with men from northwestern countries. Other predictors for LTFU were age30 years, lower education, injecting drug use, and higher baseline CD4 cell counts. Participants taking antiretroviral therapy had reduced LTFU. The survey showed that 84% of HIV-infected patients in care at SHCS institutions were enrolled in the cohort. Nonparticipation was more likely among men from non-European regions (odds ratio 2.73; 95% CI 2.29-3.24), women from sub-Saharan Africa (odds ratio 3.01; 95% CI 2.40-3.77) and women from Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio 2.10; 95% CI 1.30-3.39).Numbers of HIV-infected immigrants are increasing but they are underrepresented in the SHCS, and immigrants are more likely to be lost to follow-up.