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Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slowdown comes entirely from female employment, as women’s employment rates converged toward men’s during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women “crowd out” men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a general equilibrium model with home production, we show this statistic implies that 60-75 percent of the slowdown in recent business cycle recoveries can be explained by female convergence.(JEL D13, E24, E32, J16, J21)

We exploit a volcanic “experiment” to study the costs and benefits of geographic mobility. In our experiment, a third of the houses in a town were covered by lava. People living in these houses were much more likely to move away permanently. For the dependents in a household (children), our estimates suggest that being induced to move by the “lava shock” dramatically raised lifetime earnings and education. While large, these estimates come with a substantial amount of statistical uncertainty. The benefits of moving were very unequally distributed across generations: the household heads (parents) were made slightly worse off by the shock. These results suggest large barriers to moving for the children, which imply that labour does not flow to locations where it earns the highest returns. The large gains from moving for the young are surprising in light of the fact that the town affected by our volcanic experiment was (and is) a relatively high income town. We interpret our findings as evidence of the importance of comparative advantage: the gains to moving may be very large for those badly matched to the location they happened to be born in, even if differences in average income are small.

We provide new time-varying estimates of the housing wealth effect back to the 1980s. We use three identification strategies: ordinary least squares with a rich set of controls, the Saiz housing supply elasticity instrument, and a new instrument that exploits systematic differences in city-level exposure to regional house price cycles. All three identification strategies indicate that housing wealth elasticities were if anything slightly smaller in the 2000s than in earlier time periods. This implies that the important role housing played in the boom and bust of the 2000s was due to larger price movements rather than an increase in the sensitivity of consumption to house prices. Full-sample estimates based on our new instrument are smaller than recent estimates, though they remain economically important. We find no significant evidence of a boom–bust asymmetry in the housing wealth elasticity. We show that these empirical results are consistent with the behaviour of the housing wealth elasticity in a standard life-cycle model with borrowing constraints, uninsurable income risk, illiquid housing, and long-term mortgages. In our model, the housing wealth elasticity is relatively insensitive to changes in the distribution of loan-to-value (LTV) for two reasons: first, low-leverage homeowners account for a substantial and stable part of the aggregate housing wealth elasticity; second, a rightward shift in the LTV distribution increases not only the number of highly sensitive constrained agents but also the number of underwater agents whose consumption is insensitive to house prices.

Background: Throwing injuries of the shoulder and elbow are common among youth baseball players. Hypothesis: A prevention program will reduce the incidence of throwing injuries of the shoulder and elbow by 50% among youth baseball players. Study Design: Randomized controlled trial; Level of evidence, 1. Methods: The authors block randomized 16 youth baseball teams consisting of 237 players aged 9 to 11 years into an intervention group (8 teams, 117 players) and a control group (8 teams, 120 players). The intervention program consisted of 5 stretching, 2 dynamic mobility, and 2 balance training exercises performed during warm-up. Both groups were followed up for 12 months, during which the incidence of shoulder and elbow injuries was recorded. In addition, ball speed during pitching as a performance-related factor and variables of physical function (passive range of motion of the elbow, shoulder and hip, dynamic balance, and thoracic kyphosis angle) were assessed during the pre- and postintervention periods. Results: The incidence of shoulder and elbow injuries in the intervention group (1.7 per 1000 athlete-exposures) was significantly lower than that in the control group (3.1 per 1000 athlete-exposures) (hazard ratio, 1.940; 95% CI, 1.175-3.205; P = .010). The factors related to pitching performance, as assessed by ball speed, tended to increase in the intervention group as compared with the control group ( P = .010). The program also improved shoulder horizontal adduction deficits on the dominant side, hip internal rotation on the nondominant side, and the thoracic kyphosis angle. Conclusion: A prevention program decreases throwing injuries of the shoulder and elbow and enhances the parameter of pitching performance in youth baseball players.

The impact of characteristic physical functions on location of arm pain in youth baseball players is unclear. This study aimed to identify the differences in characteristic physical functions between youth baseball players with and without throwing-related arm pain and to clarify these differences according to location of shoulder and elbow pain during pitching. One-hundred nine junior high school baseball players (aged 12-15 years) who participated in a medical checkup underwent clinical assessment, ultrasonography, and physical function measurements. Bilateral passive range of motion (ROM) of the shoulder and elbow were measured. Shoulder muscle tests measured the strength of the throwing arm. Before the examinations, participants completed a questionnaire about their age, gender, years of play, and position in baseball. Participants were divided into 4 groups according to arm pain: non-injured group (no pain), shoulder pain group, medial elbow pain group, and osteochondritis dissecans (OCD) of the humeral capitellum group. Group differences in physical function and baseball exposure variables were analyzed through parametric and nonparametric tests. Twenty-six players sustained throwing-related pain in the shoulder or elbow. Elbow extension and flexion deficits were significantly greater with elbow injury. Our study suggests that dominant elbow extension and flexion ROM may increase the risk of throwing-related elbow pain in junior high school baseball players. We could not clarify the characteristics of shoulder pain in this study; thus, further research is required to improve understanding of these characteristics and their implications.

BACKGROUND Little is known about palliative sedation in terminally ill heart failure (HF) patients.Methods and Results:We retrospectively reviewed terminally ill HF patients who received palliative sedation from September 2013 to August 2018. Among 95 terminally ill HF patients, 25 were prescribed dexmedetomidine and 12 were prescribed midazolam at the end of life. Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale was significantly reduced (P

BACKGROUND CONTEXT Previous reports have shown that treadmill training after spinal cord injury (SCI) contributes to functional recovery and is associated with increased levels of neurotrophic factors in the spinal cord in a rat model. However, the precise mechanism underlying the above observation has not been elucidated. Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is associated with motor function recovery due to its neuroprotective and axon sprouting effects. Promoting BDNF expression in spinal cord lesions by strategies such as physical training and cell transplantation has been reported to be effective in treating SCI in animals. Myokines are muscle-derived bioactive molecules associated with muscle contraction. Although BDNF is a myokine and considered a potential mediator of neuroplasticity following exercise, its contribution to motor function recovery after SCI has not yet been described in detail. PURPOSE To investigate the role of muscle contraction in motor function recovery after SCI, with a focus on BDNF. STUDY DESIGN/SETTING Eight-week-old Sprague-Dawley male rats were used to establish the SCI model. Percutaneous electrical muscle stimulation (10 mA, 2 Hz, 10 min) was applied to both limbs of the rats immediately after SCI. The stimulation was performed once per day for 4 weeks. The sham, SCI (SCI), and SCI with electrical muscle stimulation (SCIapt-ent-b 002B apt-ent-e + apt-ent-uES) groups were compared. OUTCOME MEASURES The effect of electrical muscle stimulation was assessed by the motor function recovery. Histological assessments were done by measuring the cavity volume, the amount of axon sprouting, the number of apoptotic cells, and the amount of BDNF. METHODS Spinal injury was induced by dropping a 20 g rod with a 2 mm apex diameter from a height of 25 mm onto the spine of an anesthetized rat at the T9 level. Motor function was assessed using the Basso-Beattie-Bresnahan Locomotor Scale (BBB score), the inclined plane test, and the Rotarod test. One week after the injury, transferase dUTP nick-end labeling (TUNEL)-positive cells were counted at the injury epicenter, and the level of BDNF was measured in both the spinal cord and the lower limb muscle. Four weeks after injury, the cavity volume of the epicenter and the level of phosphorylated growth-associated protein 43 (pGAP43) in the spinal cord were measured. RESULTS A significantly improved BBB score and inclined plane test results were observed in the SCIapt-ent-b 002B apt-ent-e + apt-ent-uES group when compared to the SCI group, 4 weeks post-SCI. We also observed a decrease in the cavity volume and an increase in pGAP43 levels in the SCIapt-ent-b 002B apt-ent-e + apt-ent-uES group. Electrical muscle stimulation decreased the numbers of TUNEL-positive cells in the epicenter and increased the levels of BDNF in the spinal cord and lower limb muscles 1 week post-SCI. CONCLUSIONS Electrical muscle stimulation improved motor function and increased BDNF levels in both the muscles and the spinal cords of rats subjected to SCI. Muscle contraction-induced BDNF expression might be involved in motor recovery during rehabilitation. FDA DEVICE/DRUG STATUS This abstract does not discuss or include any applicable devices or drugs.

This paper presents new estimates of gross worker flows for Canada for the sample period 1978 to 2016. We use administrative data from the Canadian Record of Employment in combination with the Canadian Labor Force Survey to estimate employer-to-employer flows in addition to flows between labor market states. We highlight three main results: Roughly two-thirds of all job separations are employer-to-employer flows. Employer-to-Employer flows are highly procyclical. The combination of these two results means that total job separations are procyclical. If employer-to-employer flows improve match quality, our results imply that recessions have a sullying effect on the labor market.

Ca2+ -induced Ca2+ release (CICR) via type-3 ryanodine receptor enhances neurotransmitter release in frog motor nerve terminals. To test a possible role of synaptic vesicle in CICR, we examined the effects of loading of EGTA, a Ca2+ chelator, into synaptic vesicles and depolymerization of actin fibers. Intravesicular EGTA loading via endocytosis inhibited the ryanodine sensitive enhancement of transmitter release induced by tetanic stimulation and the associated rises in intracellular-free Ca2+ ([Ca2+ ]i : Ca2+ transients). Latrunculin A, a depolymerizer of actin fibers, enhanced both spontaneous and stimulation-induced transmitter release, but inhibited the enhancement of transmitter release elicited by successive tetanic stimulation. The results suggest a possibility that the activation of CICR from mobilized synaptic vesicles caused the enhancement of neurotransmitter release.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the strain applied to each of the tendon fiber bundles of the medial head of the gastrocnemius (MG), the lateral head of the gastrocnemius (LG), and the soleus muscle (Sol) that compose the Achilles tendon (AT) when the subtalar joint is pronated and supinated. Three AT twist types (least, moderate, extreme) were investigated. Using the MicroScribe system, the AT and the talocrural and subtalar joints were digitized to reconstruct three-dimensional models. Using this system, subtalar joint rotations in the pronation (20°) and supination (20°) directions were simulated, and the degrees of strain (%) on each tendon were calculated. For all twist types, when the subtalar joint was pronated, MG, LG, and Sol stretched, and when supinated, MG, LG, and Sol shortened. In particular, the least and severe twist types had large degrees of strain of Sol when the subtalar joint was pronated, and furthermore, each tendon fiber composing Sol had different degrees of strain. The study results suggest that the degree of strain applied within the AT with subtalar joint pronation is not constant, and that, especially in least and extreme twist types, the risk of developing AT disorders may increase.

We provide new estimates of the evolution of productivity in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the population. We develop and implement a new methodology for estimating productivity that accounts for these Malthusian dynamics. In the early part of our sample, we find that productivity growth was zero. Productivity growth began in 1600—almost a century before the Glorious Revolution. Post-1600 productivity growth had two phases: an initial phase of modest growth of 4% per decade between 1600 and 1810, followed by a rapid acceleration at the time of the Industrial Revolution to 18% per decade. Our evidence helps distinguish between theories of why growth began. In particular, our findings support the idea that broad-based economic change preceded the bourgeois institutional reforms of 17th century England and may have contributed to causing them. We also estimate the strength of Malthusian population forces on real wages. We find that these forces were sufficiently weak to be easily overwhelmed by post-1800 productivity growth. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indexes for non-tradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the Phillips curve is very flat and was very flat even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multi-region model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation since the 1990s is mostly due to long-run inflationary expectations becoming more firmly anchored.

Background Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is effective for treating depression. However, the mechanisms underlying the antidepressant effects of ECT remain unknown. Depressed patients exhibit abnormal Ca2+ kinetics. Early stages of the intracellular Ca2+ signaling pathway involve the release of Ca2+ from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) via Ca2+ release channels. Objective We considered that depression may be improved via ECT-induced normalization of intracellular Ca2+ regulation through the Ca2+ release channels. The current study aimed to investigate the effects of ECT on two Ca2+ release channels, ryanodine receptors (RyRs) and inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP3Rs). Methods A mouse depression-like model subjected to water immersion with restraint stress was administered electroconvulsive shock (ECS) therapy. Their depression-like status was behaviorally and histologically assessed using forced swimming tests, novelty-suppressed feeding tests, and by evaluating neurogenesis in the hippocampal dentate gyrus, respectively. A RyRs blocker, dantrolene, was administered prior to ECS, and the changes in depression-like conditions were examined. Results The protein expressions of RyR1 and RyR3 significantly increased in the hippocampus of the mouse model with depression-like symptoms. This increase was attenuated as depression-like symptoms were reduced due to ECS application. However, pre-injection with dantrolene reduced the antidepressant effects of ECS. Conclusions A significant increase in RyRs expression in a depression-like state and exacerbation of depression-like symptoms by RyRs inhibitors may be caused by RyRs dysfunction, suggesting overexpression of RyRs is a compensatory effect. Normalization of RyRs expression levels by ECS suggests that ECT normalizes the Ca2+ release via RyRs. Thus, normalizing the function of RyRs may play an important role in the therapeutic effect of ECT.

Recent empirical work uses variation across cities or regions to identify the effects of economic shocks of interest to macroeconomists. The interpretation of such estimates is complicated by the fact that they reflect both partial equilibrium and local general equilibrium effects of the shocks. We propose an approach for recovering estimates of partial equilibrium effects from these cross-regional empirical estimates. The basic idea is to divide the cross-regional estimate by an estimate of the local fiscal multiplier, which measures the strength of local general equilibrium amplification. We apply this approach to recent estimates of housing wealth effects based on city-level variation, and derive conditions under which the adjustment is exact. We then evaluate its accuracy in a richer general equilibrium model of consumption and housing. The paper also reconciles the positive cross-sectional correlation between house price growth and construction with the notion that cities with larger price volatility have lower housing supply elasticities using a model in which housing supply elasticities are more dispersed in the long run than in the short run.

We estimate the slope of the Phillips curve in the cross section of U.S. states using newly constructed state-level price indices for nontradeable goods back to 1978. Our estimates indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and was small even during the early 1980s. We estimate only a modest decline in the slope of the Phillips curve since the 1980s. We use a multiregion model to infer the slope of the aggregate Phillips curve from our regional estimates. Applying our estimates to recent unemployment dynamics yields essentially no missing disinflation or missing reinflation over the past few business cycles. Our results imply that the sharp drop in core inflation in the early 1980s was mostly due to shifting expectations about long-run monetary policy as opposed to a steep Phillips curve, and the greater stability of inflation between 1990 and 2020 is mostly due to long-run inflation expectations becoming more firmly anchored.

In standard models, economic activity fluctuates symmetrically around a “natural rate” and stabilization policies can dampen these fluctuations but do not affect the average level of activity. An alternative view—labeled the “plucking model” by Milton Friedman—is that economic fluctuations are drops below the economy’s full potential ceiling. If this view is correct, stabilization policy, by dampening these fluctuations, can raise the average level of activity. We show that the dynamics of the unemployment rate in the US display a striking asymmetry that strongly favors the plucking model: increases in unemployment are followed by decreases of similar amplitude, while the amplitude of the increase is not related to the amplitude of the previous decrease. We develop a microfounded plucking model of the business cycle. The source of asymmetry in our model is downward nominal wage rigidity, which we embed in an explicit search model of the labor market. Our search framework implies that downward nominal wage rigidity is consistent with optimizing behavior and equilibrium. In our plucking model, stabilization policy lowers average unemployment and thereby yields sizable welfare gains. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

This study aimed to clarify the acute effect of static stretching (SS) with superficial cooling on dorsiflexion range of motion (DF ROM) and muscle stiffness. Sixteen healthy males participated in the cooling condition and a control condition in a random order. The DF ROM and the shear elastic modulus of medial gastrocnemius (MG) in the dominant leg were measured during passive dorsiflexion. All measurements were performed prior to (PRE) and immediately after 20 min of cooling or rested for 20 min (POST), followed by 2 min SS (POST SS). In cooling condition, DF ROM at POST and POST SS were significantly higher than that at PRE and DF ROM at POST SS was significantly higher than that at POST. In addition, the shear elastic modulus at POST was significantly higher than that at PRE and the shear elastic modulus at POST SS was significantly lower than those at PRE and POST. However, there were no significant differences in the percentage changes between PRE and POST SS between the cooling and control conditions. Our results showed that effects of SS with superficial cooling on increases in ROM and decrease in muscle stiffness were no more beneficial than those of SS alone.

A key policy question is: how high an inflation rate should central banks target? This depends crucially on the costs of inflation. An important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion. Workhorse New Keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large. An increase in steady-state inflation from 0% to 10% yields a welfare loss that is an order of magnitude greater than the welfare loss from business cycle fluctuations in output in these models. We assess this prediction empirically using a new data set on price behavior during the Great Inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s in the United States. If price dispersion increases rapidly with inflation, we should see the absolute size of price changes increasing with inflation: price changes should become larger as prices drift further from their optimal level at higher inflation rates. We find no evidence that the absolute size of price changes rose during the Great Inflation. This suggests that the standard New Keynesian analysis of the welfare costs of inflation is wrong and its implications for the optimal inflation rate need to be reassessed. We also find that (nonsale) prices have not become more flexible over the past 40 years.

This paper discusses empirical approaches macroeconomists use to answer questions like: What does monetary policy do? How large are the effects of fiscal stimulus? What caused the Great Recession? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Identification of causal effects plays two roles in this process. In certain cases, progress can be made using the direct approach of identifying plausibly exogenous variation in a policy and using this variation to assess the effect of the policy. However, external validity concerns limit what can be learned in this way. Carefully identified causal effects estimates can also be used as moments in a structural moment matching exercise. We use the term “identified moments” as a short-hand for “estimates of responses to identified structural shocks,” or what applied microeconomists would call “causal effects.” We argue that such identified moments are often powerful diagnostic tools for distinguishing between important classes of models (and thereby learning about the effects of policy). To illustrate these notions we discuss the growing use of cross-sectional evidence in macroeconomics and consider what the best existing evidence is on the effects of monetary policy.

Background Medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) is one of the most common causes of exercise-related leg pain in runners. Because stopping training due to pain from MTSS could decrease the athlete’s competitiveness, it is necessary to construct MTSS prevention and treatment programs. However, the effect of running, which is believed to cause MTSS, on shear elastic modulus of the posterior lower leg is unclear. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of 30 min of running on shear elastic modulus of the posterior lower leg in healthy subjects. Methods Twenty healthy males volunteered to participate in this study (age, 20.9 ± 0.6 y; height, 169.6 ± 4.5 cm; weight, 62.6 ± 5.2 kg). The shear elastic modulus of the posterior lower leg was measured using ultrasonic shear wave elastography before and immediately after a 30-min running task. Results Shear elastic moduli of the flexor digitorum longus and tibialis posterior were significantly increased after 30 min running task. However, there were no significant changes in shear elastic moduli of the lateral gastrocnemius, medial gastrocnemius, peroneus longus and peroneus brevis. Conclusion The results suggested that the increases in shear elastic moduli of flexor digitorum longus and tibialis posterior after running could be a risk factor for running-related MTSS development.

Females, as compared with males, have a higher proportion of injuries in the foot region. However, the reason for this gender difference regarding foot injuries remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate gender differences associated with rearfoot, midfoot, and forefoot kinematics during running. Twelve healthy males and 12 females ran on a treadmill. The running speed was set to speed which changes from walking to running. Three-dimensional kinematics of rearfoot, midfoot, and forefoot were collected and compared between males and females. Furthermore, spatiotemporal parameters (speed, cadence, and step length) were measured. In the rearfoot angle, females showed a significantly greater peak value of plantarflexion and range of motion in the sagittal plane as compared with males (effect size (ES) = 1.55 and ES = 1.12, respectively). In the midfoot angle, females showed a significantly greater peak value of dorsiflexion and range of motion in the sagittal plane as compared with males (ES = 1.49 and ES = 1.71, respectively). The forefoot peak angles and ranges of motion were not significantly different between the genders in all three planes. A previous study suggested that a gender-related difference in excessive motions of the lower extremities during running has been suggested as a contributing factor to running injuries. Therefore, the present investigation may provide insight into the reason for the high incidence of foot injuries in females.

Whether the near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) technology correctly detects the changes in oxygenation related to ischemia and reperfusion of organs and tissues other than brain remains unclear. The present study examined how different tissue oxygenation parameters derived from NIRS reflect the changes in the forearm blood flow (FBF) according to the brief ischemia and the subsequent reperfusion, and whether values of these parameters move in parallel with the medial and lateral sides of FBF. Thirteen volunteers underwent the prospective observational study. The tissue oxygenation index (TOI), regional saturation of oxygen (rSO2), skin tissue oxygenation (StO2), and FBF values were evaluated in the forearm. Medial rSO2 values at 1 to 3 minutes after the termination of brief ischemia were higher than lateral rSO2 and respective TOI values. FBF and StO2 values quickly increased according to the cessation of brief ischemia, whereas the medial and lateral values did not differ during and after the brief ischemia. TOI and StO2, but not rSO2, reflected changes in FBF of both medial and lateral sides simultaneously in response to the reperfusion after brief ischemia. The muscle tissue oxygenation during reperfusion favors the use of TOI and StO2, but not rSO2, as the surrogate parameter. J. Med. Invest. 64: 228-232, August, 2017.