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International wild Atlantic salmon management priorities have moved from exploitation to conservation since the 1990s, recognizing the need to protect diversity and abundance at individual river levels amid widespread declines. Here we review international salmon-stock assessments and describe a simple, transferable catch-advice framework, established for management of fisheries that conforms to international obligations. The risk assessment approach, applied at the river scale, jointly incorporates uncertainty in estimated and forecasted returning salmon numbers with the level of uncertainty around spawning requirements (Conservation Limits). Outputs include quantification of risk of stocks not attaining conservation limits (CL) and surpluses above CL on stocks able to support sustainable exploitation via total allowable catches (TAC), with monitoring by rod catch or fish counter. Since management implementation and cessation of at-sea mixed-stock fisheries, there has been a deterioration in the performance of many individual stocks, without any sustained increase in fisheries open to harvest. Given declines in mid-latitude Atlantic salmon populations over 30 years, the novel framework presented provides an approach to protect stocks failing to meet spawning thresholds while supporting sustainable exploitation of those achieving them. On-going management policy of adopting scientific advice and allowing exploitation only on stocks exceeding CLs is central to the objective of protecting salmon stocks.

Advance warning of seasonal conditions has the potential to assist water management in planning and risk mitigation, with large potential social, economic, and ecological benefits. In this study, we explore the value of seasonal forecasting for decision-making at five case study sites located in extratropical regions. The forecasting tools used integrate seasonal climate model forecasts with freshwater impact models of catchment hydrology, lake conditions (temperature, water level, chemistry, and ecology), and fish migration timing and were co-developed together with water managers. To explore the decision-making value of forecasts, we carried out a qualitative assessment of (1) how useful forecasts would have been for a problematic past season and (2) the relevance of any windows of opportunity (seasons and variables where forecasts are thought to perform well) for management. Overall, water managers were optimistic about the potential for improved decision-making and identified actions that could be taken based on forecasts. However, there was often a mismatch between those variables that could best be predicted and those which would be most useful for management. Reductions in forecast uncertainty and a need to develop practical, hands-on experience were identified as key requirements before forecasts would be used in operational decision-making. Seasonal climate forecasts provided little added value to freshwater forecasts in these extratropical study sites, and we discuss the conditions under which seasonal climate forecasts with only limited skill are most likely to be worth incorporating into freshwater forecasting workflows. MINECO-AEI [PCIN-2017062, PCIN-2017-092]; FORMAS; BMBF; EPA; RCN [274208]; IFD; European Union [690462] Published version This work was carried out as part of the WATExR project, part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate and funded by MINECO-AEI (ES; grant nos. PCIN-2017062 and PCIN-2017-092), FORMAS (SE), BMBF (DE), EPA (IE), RCN (NO; grant no. 274208), and IFD (DK), with co-funding by the European Union (grant no. 690462).

Turbulent and radiative energy exchanges between lakes and the atmosphere play an importantrole in determining the process of lake-mixing and stratification, including how lakes respond to climate andto climate change. Here we used a one-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model to assess seasonal impacts ofclimate change on individual surface heat flux components in Lough Feeagh, Ireland, a deep, monomictic lake.We drove the lake model with an ensemble of outputs from four climate models under three future greenhousegas scenarios from 1976 to 2099. In these experiments, the results showed significant increases in the radiativebudget that were largely counteracted by significant increases in the turbulent fluxes. The combined change inthe individual surface heat fluxes led to a change in the total surface heat flux that was small, but sufficient tolead to significant changes in the volume-weighted average lake temperature. The largest projected changes intotal surface heat fluxes were in spring and autumn. Both spring heating and autumnal cooling significantlydecreased under future climate conditions, while changes to total surface heat fluxes in winter and summerwere an order of magnitude lower. This led to counter-intuitive results that, in a warming world, there wouldbe less heat not more entering Lough Feeagh during the springtime, and little change in net heating over thesummer or winter compared to natural climate conditions, projected increases in the volume-weighted averagelake temperature were found to be largely due to reduced heat loss during autumn.

Despite high potential benefits, the development of seasonal forecasting tools in the water sector has been slower than in other sectors. Here we assess the skill of seasonal forecasting tools for lake and reservoir set up at four sites in Australia and Europe. These tools, as previously presented, consist of coupled hydrological catchment and lake models forced with seasonal climate forecast ensembles to provide probabilistic predictions of seasonal anomalies in water discharge, temperature and ice-off. Successful implementation requires a rigorous assessment of the tools’ predictive skill and an apportionment of the predictability between legacy effects and input data. To this end, models were forced with two meteorological datasets from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the seasonal forecasts SEAS5 and the ERA5 reanalysis. Historical skill was assessed by comparing both model outputs, i.e., seasonal lake hindcasts (forced with SEAS5) and pseudo-observations (forced with ERA5). The skill of the seasonal lake hindcasts was generally low, but higher than SEAS5 climate hindcasts. Nevertheless, lake and SEAS5 windows of opportunity were identified, although they were not always synchronous, raising questions on the source of the predictability. A set of sensitivity analyses showed that most of the forecasting skill originates from legacy effects, although during winter and spring in Norway some skill was coming from SEAS5 over the target season. When SEAS5 hindcasts were skillful, additional predictability originates from the interaction between legacy and SEAS5 skill. We conclude that a climatology driven forecast is currently likely to yield higher quality forecasts.

The epilimnion is the surface layer of a lake typically characterised as well mixed and is decoupled from the metalimnion due to a steep change in density. The concept of the epilimnion (and, more widely, the three-layered structure of a stratified lake) is fundamental in limnology, and calculating the depth of the epilimnion is essential to understanding many physical and ecological lake processes. Despite the ubiquity of the term, however, there is no objective or generic approach for defining the epilimnion, and a diverse number of approaches prevail in the literature. Given the increasing availability of water temperature and density profile data from lakes with a high spatio-temporal resolution, automated calculations, using such data, are particularly common, and they have vast potential for use with evolving long-term globally measured and modelled datasets. However, multi-site and multi-year studies, including those related to future climate impacts, require robust and automated algorithms for epilimnion depth estimation. In this study, we undertook a comprehensive comparison of commonly used epilimnion depth estimation methods, using a combined 17-year dataset, with over 4700 daily temperature profiles from two European lakes. Overall, we found a very large degree of variability in the estimated epilimnion depth across all methods and thresholds investigated and for both lakes. These differences, manifesting over high-frequency data, led to fundamentally different understandings of the epilimnion depth. In addition, estimations of the epilimnion depth were highly sensitive to small changes in the threshold value, complex thermal water column structures, and vertical data resolution. These results call into question the custom of arbitrary method selection and the potential problems this may cause for studies interested in estimating the ecological processes occurring within the epilimnion, multi-lake comparisons, or long-term time series analysis. We also identified important systematic differences between methods, which demonstrated how and why methods diverged. These results may provide rationale for future studies to select an appropriate epilimnion definition in light of their particular purpose and with awareness of the limitations of individual methods. While there is no prescribed rationale for selecting a particular method, the method which defined the epilimnion depth as the shallowest depth, where the density was 0.1 kg m−3 more than the surface density, may be particularly useful as a generic method.

Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various Representative Greenhouse Gas Concentration Pathways, all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5° × 0.5° global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and for nearly 17,500 lakes using uncalibrated models and forcing data from the global grid where lakes are present. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Lake ecosystems are sensitive to local weather conditions, and especially to extremes such as storms and heatwaves. Here we provide an overview of the shorter and longer term effects on lake physics, chemistry and biology. Use of high frequency data from in situ sensors to monitor lakes has provided new insights into these impacts. Many knowledge gaps still exist, however, particularly in relation to the effects on emissions of greenhouse gases from lakes, short-term changes in lake nutrient dynamics, and effects on lake biological communities, parameters for which high frequency data are still scarce.

Microbes play a critical role in plant litter decomposition and influence the fate of carbon in rivers and riparian zones. When decomposing low-nutrient plant litter, microbes acquire nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from the environment (i.e., nutrient immobilization), and this process is potentially sensitive to nutrient loading and changing climate. Nonetheless, environmental controls on immobilization are poorly understood because rates are also influenced by plant litter chemistry, which is coupled to the same environmental factors. Here we used a standardized, low-nutrient organic matter substrate (cotton strips) to quantify nutrient immobilization at 100 paired stream and riparian sites representing 11 biomes worldwide. Immobilization rates varied by three orders of magnitude, were greater in rivers than riparian zones, and were strongly correlated to decomposition rates. In rivers, P immobilization rates were controlled by surface water phosphate concentrations, but N immobilization rates were not related to inorganic N. The N:P of immobilized nutrients was tightly constrained to a molar ratio of 10:1 despite wide variation in surface water N:P. Immobilization rates were temperature-dependent in riparian zones but not related to temperature in rivers. However, in rivers nutrient supply ultimately controlled whether microbes could achieve the maximum expected decomposition rate at a given temperature. Collectively, we demonstrated that exogenous nutrient supply and immobilization are critical control points for decomposition of organic matter. Key Points • Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) immobilization was measured on organic matter (cotton) in 100 rivers and riparian zones representing 11 biomes • Elevated temperature in riparian zones and phosphate in rivers increased immobilization, and consequently accelerated decomposition • N and P immobilization was strongly linked by microbial stoichiometry despite widely varied surface-water nutrient ratios Plain Language Summary Bacteria and fungi contribute to the breakdown of leaf litter in rivers and floodplains. To break down leaf litter, these microbes need the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus (P), and microbes can get nutrients either from the leaf litter itself or from the environment. Most leaf litter has low nutrient content and microbes must rely on the environment to supply nutrients. We studied microbial nutrient uptake from the environment during litter breakdown to determine whether it varies predictably across the globe and how it is influenced by changing climate and nutrient pollution. In 100 rivers and floodplains in 11 of Earth's major biomes we placed small strips of cotton as stand-ins for leaf litter. Nutrient uptake was consistently greater on cotton strips that were submerged in the river compared to cotton on the floodplain. For microbes in the river, nutrient uptake was faster in instances where there was more P in the water. For microbes in the floodplain, nutrient uptake was faster where temperatures were warmer. Faster nutrient uptake by microbes was linked with faster cotton breakdown in rivers and floodplains. Our study shows that climate change and nutrient pollution can alter the activity of microbes in rivers and floodplains.

International audience; Globalization has led to the introduction of thousands of alien species worldwide. With growing impacts by invasive species, understanding the invasion process remains critical for predicting adverse effects and informing efficient management. Theoretically, invasion dynamics have been assumed to follow an "invasion curve" (S-shaped curve of available area invaded over time), but this dynamic has lacked empirical testing using large-scale data and neglects to consider invader abundances. We propose an "impact curve" describing the impacts generated by invasive species over time based on cumulative abundances. To test this curve's large-scale applicability, we used the data-rich New Zealand mud snail Potamopyrgus antipodarum, one of the most damaging freshwater invaders that has invaded almost all of Europe. Using long-term (1979-2020) abundance and environmental data collected across 306 European sites, we observed that P. antipodarum abundance generally increased through time, with slower population growth at higher latitudes and with lower runoff depth. Fifty-nine percent of these populations followed the impact curve, characterized by first occurrence, exponential growth, then long-term saturation. This behaviour is consistent with boom-bust dynamics, as saturation occurs due to a rapid decline in abundance over time. Across sites, we estimated that impact peaked approximately two decades after first detection, but the rate of progression along the invasion process was influenced by local abiotic conditions. The S-shaped impact curve may be common among many invasive species that undergo complex invasion dynamics. This provides a potentially unifying approach to advance understanding of large-scale invasion dynamics and could inform timely management actions to mitigate impacts on ecosystems and economies.

Coastal lagoons are a dynamic habitat, with varying marine and freshwater inputs determining the presence and extent of stratification, and the physical and chemical environment of the epi- and hypolimnion. As a result, the biotic assemblages that thrive in such environments are a diverse mix of species, with wide ranges of tolerances. While annual succession and vertical distribution of phytoplankton assemblages in marine and freshwater ecosystems are well documented, few data are available which describe the spatial and temporal variability of phytoplankton in coastal lagoons, even though these are a protected habitat under the European Union's Habitat Directive. In this study, high frequency monitoring (HFM) of chlorophyll fluorescence (ChlF) using a vertical profiling sonde was used to describe the variation in algal biomass over six annual cycles and through the water column of Lough Furnace, a perennially stratified coastal lagoon on the west coast of Ireland. Spot sampling, and species enumeration of phytoplankton were used to confirm the patterns observed in the fluorescence data, which indicated a general pattern of increasing biomass starting in spring, and a deepening of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) over the summer. Typical of a stratified system, the DCM was often situated below the surface mixed layer, in saline hypoxic water. The best predictors of daily maximum ChlF were the depth of the surface mixed layer and daily solar radiation. We conclude that HFM allows an unprecedented glimpse into the substantial variability and complexity of phytoplankton distributions, a key biotic variable.

Annual maximum lake surface temperature influences ecosystem structure and function and, in particular, the rates of metabolic activities, species survival and biogeography. Here, we evaluated 50 years of observational data, from 1966 to 2015, for ten European lakes to quantify changes in the annual maximum surface temperature and the duration above a potentially critical temperature of 20 °C. Our results show that annual maximum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of +0.58 °C decade−1 (95% confidence interval 0.18), which is similar to the observed increase in annual maximum air temperature of +0.42 °C decade−1 (95% confidence interval 0.28) over the same period. Increments in lake maximum temperature among the ten lakes range from +0.1 in the west to +1.9 °C decade−1 in the east. Absolute maximum lake surface water temperatures were reached in Wörthersee, 27.5 °C, and Neusiedler See, 31.7 °C. Periods exceeding a critical temperature of 20 °C each year became two to six times longer than the respective average (6 to 93). The depth at which water temperature exceeded 20 °C increased from less than 1 to more than 6 m in Mondsee, Austria, over the 50 years studied. As a consequence, the habitable environment became increasingly restricted for many organisms that are adapted to historic conditions.

Globally, inland waters emit over 2 Pg of carbon per year as carbon dioxide, of which the majority originates from streams and rivers. Despite the global significance of fluvial carbon dioxide emissions, little is known about their diel dynamics. Here we present a large-scale assessment of day- and night-time carbon dioxide fluxes at the water-air interface across 34 European streams. We directly measured fluxes four times between October 2016 and July 2017 using drifting chambers. Median fluxes are 1.4 and 2.1mmolm(-2) h(-1) at midday and midnight, respectively, with night fluxes exceeding those during the day by 39%. We attribute diel carbon dioxide flux variability mainly to changes in the water partial pressure of carbon dioxide. However, no consistent drivers could be identified across sites. Our findings highlight widespread day-night changes in fluvial carbon dioxide fluxes and suggest that the time of day greatly influences measured carbon dioxide fluxes across European streams. Diel patterns can greatly impact total stream carbon dioxide emissions, with 39% greater carbon dioxide flux during the night-time relative to the day-time, according to a study of 34 streams across Europe.

Plant litter functional diversity effects on instream decomposition change across latitudes., Running waters contribute substantially to global carbon fluxes through decomposition of terrestrial plant litter by aquatic microorganisms and detritivores. Diversity of this litter may influence instream decomposition globally in ways that are not yet understood. We investigated latitudinal differences in decomposition of litter mixtures of low and high functional diversity in 40 streams on 6 continents and spanning 113° of latitude. Despite important variability in our dataset, we found latitudinal differences in the effect of litter functional diversity on decomposition, which we explained as evolutionary adaptations of litter-consuming detritivores to resource availability. Specifically, a balanced diet effect appears to operate at lower latitudes versus a resource concentration effect at higher latitudes. The latitudinal pattern indicates that loss of plant functional diversity will have different consequences on carbon fluxes across the globe, with greater repercussions likely at low latitudes.

As the global climate warms, the fate of lacustrine fish is of huge concern, especially given their sensitivity as ectotherms to changes in water temperature. The Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinusL.) is a salmonid with a Holarctic distribution, with peripheral populations persisting at temperate latitudes, where it is found only in sufficiently cold, deep lakes. Thus, warmer temperatures in these habitats particularly during early life stages could have catastrophic consequences on population dynamics. Here, we combined lake temperature observations, a 1-D hydrodynamic model, and a multi-decadal climate reanalysis to show coherence in warming winter water temperatures in four European charr lakes near the southernmost limit of the species’ distribution. Current maximum and mean winter temperatures are on average ~ 1 °C warmer compared to early the 1980s, and temperatures of 8.5 °C, adverse for high charr egg survival, have frequently been exceeded in recent winters. Simulations of winter lake temperatures toward century-end showed that these warming trends will continue, with further increases of 3–4 °C projected. An additional 324 total accumulated degree-days during winter is projected on average across lakes, which could impair egg quality and viability. We suggest that the perpetuating winter warming trends shown here will imperil the future status of these lakes as charr refugia and generally do not augur well for the fate of coldwater-adapted lake fish in a warming climate.

The release of captive-bred animals into the wild is commonly practised to restore or supplement wild populations but comes with a suite of ecological and genetic consequences. Vast numbers of hatchery-reared fish are released annually, ostensibly to restore/enhance wild populations or provide greater angling returns. While previous studies have shown that captive-bred fish perform poorly in the wild relative to wild-bred conspecifics, few have measured individual lifetime reproductive success (LRS) and how this affects population productivity. Here, we analyse data on Atlantic salmon from an intensely studied catchment into which varying numbers of captive-bred fish have escaped/been released and potentially bred over several decades. Using a molecular pedigree, we demonstrate that, on average, the LRS of captive-bred individuals was only 36% that of wild-bred individuals. A significant LRS difference remained after excluding individuals that left no surviving offspring, some of which might have simply failed to spawn, consistent with transgenerational effects on offspring survival. The annual productivity of the mixed population (wild-bred plus captive-bred) was lower in years where captive-bred fish comprised a greater fraction of potential spawners. These results bolster previous empirical and theoretical findings that intentional stocking, or non-intentional escapees, threaten, rather than enhance, recipient natural populations.

Freshwater lakes are dynamic ecosystems and provide multiple ecosystem services to humans. Sudden changes in lake environmental conditions such as cyanobacterial blooms can negatively impact lake usage. Automated high frequency monitoring (AHFM) systems allow the detection of short-lived extreme and unpredictable events and enable lake managers to take mitigation actions earlier than if basing decisions on conventional monitoring programmes. In this study a cost-benefit approach was used to compare the costs of implementing and running an AHFM system with its potential benefits for three case study lakes. It was shown that AHFM can help avoid human health impacts, lost recreation opportunities, and revenue losses for livestock, aquaculture and agriculture as well as reputational damages for drinking water treatment. Our results showed that the largest benefits of AHFM can be expected in prevention of human health impacts and reputational damages. The potential benefits of AHFM, however, do not always outweigh installation and operation costs. While for Lake Kinneret (Israel) over a 10-year period, the depreciated total benefits are higher than the depreciated total costs, this is not the case for Lough Gara (Ireland). For Lake Ma?laren in Sweden it would depend on the configuration of the AHFM system, as well as on how the benefits are calculated. In general, the higher the frequency and severity of changes in lake environmental conditions associated with detrimental consequences for humans and the higher the number of lake users, the more likely it is that the application of an AHFM system is financially viable.

Between May and July 2018, Ireland experienced an exceptional heat wave, which broke long-term temperature and drought records. These calm, stable conditions were abruptly interrupted by a second extreme weather event, Atlantic Storm Hector, in late June. Using high-frequency monitoring data, coupled with fortnightly biological sampling, we show that the storm directly affected the stratification pattern of Lough Feeagh, resulting in an intense mixing event. The lake restabilised quickly after the storm as the heatwave continued. During the storm there was a three-fold reduction in Schmidt stability, with a mixed layer deepening of 9.5 m coinciding with a two-fold reduction in chlorophyll a but a three-fold increase in total zooplankton biomass. Epilimnetic respiration increased and net ecosystem productivity decreased. The ratio of total nitrogen:total phosphorus from in-lake versus inflow rivers was decoupled, leading to a cascade effect on higher trophic levels. A step change in nitrogen:phosphorus imbalances suggested that the zooplankton community shifted from phosphorus to nitrogen nutrient constraints. Such characterisations of both lake thermal and ecological responses to extreme weather events are relatively rare but are crucial to our understanding of how lakes are changing as the impacts of global climate change accelerate.

Humic lakes play a key role in the processing of organic carbon (OC) mobilised from their catchments, but knowledge of OC dynamics in lakes within maritime temperate climates is limited. Climate exerts a significant influence on mechanisms of OC capture, storage, and processing on the wet and cloudy west coast of Ireland. We examined a high-frequency dataset of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in the surface waters of Lough Feeagh collected over 1 year. The annual pattern in pCO2 ranged between 491 and 1169 µatm and was strongly related to allochthonous riverine OC inputs. In contrast to observations in colder climates, a single peak in pCO2 occurred in Lough Feeagh in early September. Generalised additive mixed modelling revealed that 2 variables, inflow water colour concentration (a reliable proxy for DOC concentrations) and lake Schmidt stability, together explained 68% of pCO2 variability. Both the statistical analysis and timing of the peaks in inflow DOC and pCO2 strongly suggested that catchment carbon export drove pCO2 supersaturation in the lake, and hence CO2 emissions. We estimated that between 217 and 370 t CO2-C (0.55–0.94 t/ha) was emitted during the study period. These results highlight the interplay between catchment OC fluxes and climate in determining pCO2 dynamics in maritime temperate lakes.

Scales and otoliths (ear stones) from fish are routinely sampled for age estimation and stock management purposes. Growth records from scales and otoliths can be used to generate long-term time series data, and in combination with environmental data, can reveal species specific population responses to a changing climate. Additionally, scale and otolith microchemical data can be utilized to investigate fish habitat usage and migration patters. A common problem associated with biological collections, is that while sample intake grows, long-term digital and physical storage is rarely a priority. Material is often collected to meet short-term objectives and resources are seldom committed to maintaining and archiving collections. As a consequence, precious samples are frequently stored in many different and unsuitable locations, and may become lost or separated from associated metadata. The Marine Institute’s ecological research station in Newport, Ireland, holds a multi-decadal (1928-2020) collection of scales and otoliths from various fish species, gathered from many geographic locations. Here we present an open-source database and archiving system to consolidate and digitize this collection, and show how this case study infrastructure could be used for other biological sample collections. The system utilizes the FAIR (Findable Accessible Interoperable and Reusable) open data principals, and includes a physical repository, sample metadata catalogue, and image library.

While winter storms are generally common in western Europe, the rarer summer storms may result in more pronounced impacts on lake physics. Using long-term, high frequency datasets of weather and lake thermal structure from the west of Ireland (2005 to 2017), we quantified the effects of storms on the physical conditions in a monomictic, deep lake close to the Atlantic Ocean. We analysed a total of 227 storms during the stratified (May to September, n = 51) and non-stratified (November to March, n = 176) periods. In winter, as might be expected, changes were distributed over the entire water column, whereas in summer, when the lake was stratified, storms only impacted the smaller volume above the thermocline. During an average summer (May&ndash, September) storm, the lake number dropped by an order of magnitude, the thermocline deepened by an average of 2.8 m, water column stability decreased by an average of 60.4 j m&minus, 2 and the epilimnion temperature decreased by a factor of five compared to the average change in winter (0.5 &deg, C vs. 0.1 &deg, C). Projected increases in summer storm frequency will have important implications for lake physics and biological pathways.

Scales and otoliths (ear stones) from fish are routinely sampled for age estimation and fisheries management purposes. Growth records from scales and otoliths can be used to generate long-term time series data, and in combination with environmental data, can reveal species specific population responses to a changing climate. Additionally, scale and otolith microchemical data can be utilized to investigate fish habitat usage. A common problem associated with biological collections, is that while sample intake grows, long-term physical storage is rarely a priority, and much of the sampling took place before the advent of open-access digital infrastructure. Material is often collected to meet short-term objectives and resources are seldom committed to maintaining and archiving collections. As a consequence, precious samples are frequently stored in many different and unsuitable locations, and may become lost or separated from associated metadata. The Marine Institute's ecological research station in in Newport, Co. Mayo, Ireland, holds a multi-decadal (1928–2020) collection of scales and otoliths from various fish species, gathered from many geographic locations. Here we present an open-source database model and archiving system to consolidate and digitize this collection, and show how this case study infrastructure could be used for other biological sample collections. The system utilizes the FAIR (Findable Accessible Interoperable and Reusable) open-data principles, and includes a physical repository, sample metadata catalogue, and image library.

Extreme weather events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity as climate change continues. Heterotrophic bacteria play a critical role in lake ecosystems, yet little research has been done to determine how they are affected by such extremes. The purpose of this study was to use high-throughput sequencing to explore the bacterial community composition of a humic oligotrophic lake on the North Atlantic Irish coast and to assess the impacts on composition dynamics related to extreme weather events. Samples for sequencing were collected from Lough Feeagh on a fortnightly basis from April to November 2018. Filtration was used to separate free-living and particle-associated bacterial communities and amplicon sequencing was performed for the 16S rRNA V4 region. Two named storms, six high discharge events, and one drought period occurred during the sampling period. These events had variable, context-dependent effects on bacterial communities in Lough Feeagh. The particle-associated community was found to be more likely to respond to physical changes, such as mixing, while the free-living population responded to changes in nutrient and carbon concentrations. Generally, however, the high stability of the bacterial community observed in Lough Feeagh suggests that the bacterial community is relatively resilient to extreme weather events.

Heat fluxes at the lake surface play an integral part in determining the energy budget and thermal structure in lakes, including regulating how lakes respond to climate change. We explore patterns in turbulent heat fluxes, which vary across temporal and spatial scales, using in situ high-frequency monitoring data from 45 glob- ally distributed lakes. Our analysis demonstrates that some of the lakes studied follow a marked seasonal cycle in their turbulent surface fluxes and that turbulent heat loss is highest in larger lakes and those situated at low latitude. The Bowen ratio, which is the ratio of mean sensible to mean latent heat fluxes, is smaller at low lati- tudes and, in turn, the relative contribution of evaporative to total turbulent heat loss increases toward the tro- pics. Latent heat transfer ranged from ~ 60% to > 90% of total turbulent heat loss in the examined lakes. The Bowen ratio ranged from 0.04 to 0.69 and correlated significantly with latitude. The relative contributions to total turbulent heat loss therefore differ among lakes, and these contributions are influenced greatly by lake location. Our findings have implications for understanding the role of lakes in the climate system, effects on the lake water balance, and temperature-dependent processes in lakes. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers who provided a con- structive review of this manuscript. R.I.W. was funded by EU Surface Tem- perature for All Corners of Earth, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation, under Grant Agreement 640171. We thank individuals who contributed to the collection of data included in this analysis: Jon Cole (Peter Lake), Ken Hinkel and Brittany Potter (Emaiksoun Lake), Peter Staehr (Hampen Soe and Grib Soe), and Hilary Swain (Lake Annie). This work benefited from participation in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) and the Networking Lake Observatories in Europe (NETLAKE). J.A.R. acknowledges funding from the Ontario Ministry of the Environ- ment and Climate Change and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (grant CRN3038). J.D.L. was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Arctic Observing Network (AON; grant number 1107792). Data collection for Lake Võrtsjärv was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, grant IUT21-2. The Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom, funded data collec- tion from the Cumbrian lakes. We thank Kevin Rose who provided a help- ful review of an early version of this work. Researchers from various institutions provided data used this study. Please contact R. Iestyn Wool- way (riwoolway@gmail.com) for more information regarding requests for data from the relevant individuals. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers who provided a con- structive review of this manuscript. R.I.W. was funded by EU Surface Tem- perature for All Corners of Earth, which received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme for Research and Innovation, under Grant Agreement 640171. We thank individuals who contributed to the collection of data included in this analysis: Jon Cole (Peter Lake), Ken Hinkel and Brittany Potter (Emaiksoun Lake), Peter Staehr (Hampen Soe and Grib Soe), and Hilary Swain (Lake Annie). This work benefited from participation in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) and the Networking Lake Observatories in Europe (NETLAKE). J.A.R. acknowledges funding from the Ontario Ministry of the Environ- ment and Climate Change and the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (grant CRN3038). J.D.L. was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF), Arctic Observing Network (AON; grant number 1107792). Data collection for Lake Võrtsjärv was supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research, grant IUT21-2. The Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, United Kingdom, funded data collec- tion from the Cumbrian lakes. We thank Kevin Rose who provided a help- ful review of an early version of this work. Researchers from various institutions provided data used this study. Please contact R. Iestyn Wool- way (riwoolway@gmail.com) for more information regarding requests for data from the relevant individuals.

Sharing data is a keystone of collaborative science. A fundamental barrier, however, can be a lack of knowledge on what is being collected, where, and by whom. The aim of NETLAKE (COST Action ES1201) was to build a network of sites and individuals to support development and deployment of automatic sensor-based systems on lakes and reservoirs in Europe. To support this, NETLAKE developed a metadatabase which could provide answers to questions on where lakes were monitored, details on the frequency and duration of monitoring, contact details, and which sensors were being used. Development included challenges related to time and resources, and indeed to communication between lake scientists and database experts. In total, metadata for 71 European lakes were captured. The resulting data revealed interesting facts; for example, seven sites had archives that spanned over a decade, only seven of these lakes were used as drinking water sources, and one was a large fish pond. GLEON, the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network, and two pan-American projects are now adding their metadata and the metadatabase is developing into a tool for the global community which can promote high frequency monitoring and facilitate network science.

Premature migration is a key component of the biocomplexity of anadromous fishes, yet remains poorly understood. Many Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations leave the ocean in spring, months prior to spawning, though this curtails feeding in productive marine environments. We hypothesized that habitat features encourage the evolution of this trait by providing fish with physical and thermal refuge during their long freshwater holding period. We document substantial variation in Atlantic salmon return-migration timing across 70 Irish rivers using 8 years of angling data, validated with electronic-counter data from 23 of the rivers. A higher frequency of spring migrating salmon was observed in rivers with accessible lakes and larger rivers in general. Spring migration may have evolved in rivers with suitable holding habitat as a strategy to minimize cumulative marine mortality, which is traded off against additional marine feeding. More research on this neglected topic is needed, given the value of large spring migrating Atlantic salmon to anglers, ongoing declines in their abundance in Ireland and elsewhere, and the widespread occurrence of premature migration in salmonids generally.

The annual minimum of lake surface water temperature influences ecological and biogeochemical processes, but variability and change in this extreme have not been investigated. Here, we analysed observational data from eight European lakes and investigated the changes in annual minimum surface water temperature. We found that between 1973 and 2014, the annual minimum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of + 0.35 degrees Cdecade(-1), comparable to the rate of summer average lake surface temperature change during the same period (+ 0.32 degrees C decade(-1)). Coherent responses to climatic warming are observed between the increase in annual minimum lake surface temperature and the increase in winter air temperature variations. As a result of the rapid warming of annual minimum lake surface temperatures, some of the studied lakes no longer reach important minimum surface temperature thresholds that occur in winter, with complex and significant potential implications for lakes and the ecosystem services that they provide.

We report the first application of CRISPR‐Cas technology to single species detection from environmental DNA (eDNA). Organisms shed and excrete DNA into their environment such as in skin cells and faeces, referred to as environmental DNA (eDNA). Utilising eDNA allows non‐invasive monitoring with increased specificity and sensitivity. Current methods primarily employ PCR‐based techniques to detect a given species from eDNA samples, posing a logistical challenge for on‐site monitoring and potential adaptation to biosensor devices. We have developed an alternative method; coupling isothermal amplification to a CRISPR‐Cas12a detection system. This utilises the collateral cleavage activity of Cas12a, a ribonuclease guided by a highly specific single CRISPR RNA. We used the target species Salmo salar as a proof‐of‐concept test of the specificity of the assay among closely related species and to show the assay is successful at a single temperature of 37°C with signal detection at 535 nM. The specific assay, detects at attomolar sensitivity with rapid detection rates (

Following advice from the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas and North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organization, Irish salmon stocks have been managed on a river-by-river basis since 2007 with biological reference points (BRPs) based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY). A method for estimating BRPs at the river scale and the associated variability arising from observed variability in population structures and fecundities is presented here. Calculations of BRPs (referred to as conservation limits, CLs) were updated and their natural variability was included. Angling logbooks provided new river-specific weight data to give sea age and fecundity ranges, and improved estimates of river-wetted areas, to account for available nursery habitat for juveniles and river-specific carrying capacities, were introduced. To transport BRPs, Bayesian stock–recruitment analysis was re-run with an updated list of monitored rivers and smolt ages. Results were converted to salmon numbers per river in Monte Carlo simulations incorporating the variability in sea ages and fecundities. Minimum sample size rules were implemented to reduce sampling error effects. Results showed that average total CL increased by 7%, average one sea-winter (1SW) CL decreased by 5% and average multi-sea-winter (MSW) CL increased by 157%. Differences were attributed to increases in wetted areas, MSW proportions, and changes in both 1SW and MSW fecundities. While some changes were large, we believe that these updated CLs provide more accurate estimates and with associated confidence limits they are more robust, river-specific, and readily incorporated into stock assessments. As a significant improvement on their predecessors, they represent a major development for the conservation and management of salmon stocks. Additionally, the approach described is portable across stocks and has the potential to be implemented in other jurisdictions to improve the management of Atlantic salmon. Finally, this method of incorporating variation has application for the development of BRPs and management of other species.

Climate projections indicate that the frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events will increase over the next century. Although a large number of lakes across the globe are systematically monitored, it is rare to have a wide range of ecological indices measured at high enough frequency and over a sufficient time scale to allow characterisation of the response of a lake ecosystem to such events. We present data from Lough Feeagh, a relatively large oligotrophic lake in Ireland, which was at the epicentre of a once in 250-year precipitation event in July 2009 when 50 mm of rain fell in less than 2 hours. The effects of the resulting flood on the water column stability, chemistry, biology, and metabolism were examined, and data from multiple years before and after the event were used to ascertain the significance and longevity of any observed changes. The flood caused the water column to destabilise prematurely and depressed primary production. Bacterial biomass was high in the month after the flood, and zooplankton assemblages in late 2009 were significantly different from those of other years. Changes in all these variables combined to produce lower rates of gross primary production and higher rates of respiration than those measured between 2010 and 2014, resulting in more pronounced negative net ecosystem production than in the other years. Despite all these changes, the normal seasonal cycles resumed in 2010, and it appears that this rare but significant event did not have a long-term impact on the ecosystem functioning of the lake.

Peatlands cover ∼3% of the world's landmass and large expanses have been altered significantly as a consequence of land use change. Forestry activities are a key pressure on these catchments increasing suspended sediment and nutrient export to receiving waters. The aim of this study was to investigate stream dissolved oxygen (DO) and metabolic activity response following clearfelling of a 39-year-old lodgepole pine and Sitka spruce forestry in an upland peat catchment. Significant effects of clearfelling on water temperature, flows, DO and stream metabolic (photosynthesis, respiration) rates were revealed. Stream temperature and discharge significantly increased in the study stream following clearfelling. Instream ecosystem respiration increased significantly following clearfelling, indicating an increase in the net consumption of organic carbon.

The impacts of changes in climate are often most readily observed through the effects of extremes in local weather, effects that often propagate through multiple ecosystem levels. Precise effects of any extreme weather event depend not only on the type of event and its timing, but also on the ecosystem affected. Here the cascade of effects following the arrival of an atmospheric river (directed by record-breaking Storm Desmond) across terrestrial, freshwater and coastal zones is quantified, using the Burrishoole system on the Atlantic coast of Ireland as a natural observatory. We used a network of high-frequency in-situ sensors to capture in detail the effects of an unprecedented period of rainfall, high wind speeds and above-average winter air temperatures on catchment and estuarine dynamics. In the main freshwater lake, water clarity decreased and acidity increased during Storm Desmond. Surface heat input, due to a warm and moist above-lake air mass, was rapidly distributed throughout the water column. River discharge into the downstream coastal basin was estimated to be the highest on record (since 1976), increasing the buoyancy flux by an order of magnitude and doubling the water column stratification stability. Entrainment of salt into the outflowing freshwater plume exported resident salt from the inner estuarine basin, resulting in net salt loss. Here, the increased stratification markedly reinforced isolation of the bottom waters, promoting deoxygenation. Measurements of current between the inner estuarine basin and the adjacent coastal waters indicated a 20-fold increase in the volume of seaward flowing low-salinity water, as a result of storm rainfall over the watershed. Storm impacts spanned the full catchment-to-coast continuum and these results provide a glimpse into a potential future for hydrological systems where these severe hydroclimatic events are expected to occur more frequently.