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Tourism has become an important sector in Albania in recent years. After the pandemic period where the tourism industry suffered a big blow, the year 2022 has turned out to be very successful in this sector. Tourism this year is extending throughout the year, unlike previous years, which focused only on summer. In this paper, we analyzed the number of tourists and economic growth in Albania for the years 2016-2022 with quarterly frequencies (until the third quarter of 2022). The purpose of the paper is to analyze the relationship between the two variables in the short and long term periods. AIC, BIC, HQC model selection criteria are used throughout the analysis, the ADF test is used for series stationarity, the Granger test for causality and the Johansen test for co integration.

In this paper we present some thematic aspects related to the study of informal sector in the Republic of North Macedonia for the period [1998, 2016]. So, by conventional application of CDA model we perceived problematic issues in the estimation of the informal economy. To recover the model aftermaths, we assisted the calculation procedures by additional descriptive analysis aimed on avoiding the regression disturbances from critical dynamics. By evidencing the presence of self-organization regimes in some money-type variables, we identified the intervals where data series behaved highly nonlinearly. Consequently, by excluding parts of series up to a reasonable point (herein before 2004), the CDA predictions for the size of informal economy and the relationship with its factors has been improved remarkably. Next, we used factorial analysis to facilitate the design of the n-p-m MIMIC model. This investigation applied in 22 candidate factors suggested the configuration 9-2-3 as optimal structure for the model. In particular this model anticipated two terms confined in the latent variable structure, respectively in the range [0.35, 0.38] and [0.023, 0.08] part of the GDP. We assigned them as subparts of informal economy reflecting differenced influences or weights of certain cause factors. We observed that the estimated effect of the factors included in the model followed theoretical expectation.

This study focuses on the family, enabling data collection and processing to come to the conclusion that it spends on average a month in a family in the city of Vlora. The data was collected in written and electronic form with a form that was drafted following the study of many models performed in economically developed countries. Contribution was given by more than 100 families involved in the survey. This paper aims to look at the essence of decision-making by applying the mathematical methods that approximate the average cost per capita for the city of Vlora and are equal to 1 328 lek, the understanding of the basic concepts of these managerial and conceptual disciplines and to increase the level of application of these methods and principles among stakeholders in decision-making in all levels of politics, economy, society, etc.

In this work we have studied the spreading of militantism in 1D and 2D square lattice by operating the q-XY opinion and its utility optimization as control mechanism for the update process. The average utility and opinion value for a pair of opinion nodes are calculated in the framework of standard statistical mechanics using the q-opinion utility U = − J 2 ( O → 2 − 2 ) − F O → + q ( J 2 ( O → 2 − 2 ) ∗ F O → ) . The agreement with an incoming zealot opinion is modelled as one by one dialogue starting from a random opinion configuration. Each time step one node updates its opinion value according to a set of rules and by specific probabilities based on local utility improvement. New opinion values are accepted with a Metropolis-like probability calculated by employing q-utilities of the nodes under updating process. For the chain opinion structure in the interaction type preserving regimes where 0$?> 1 − q J 2 ( O → 2 − 2 ) > 0 given 0 ≤ O ≤ 1 it resulted that that both 1D and 2D structures accept the militant offer only partially. For bounded chain the agreement level is at average values for short chain and low values for bounded long opinion chain. Bounded chain structures are found resistant toward militantism accommodation. For square opinion lattices we obtained also that the militant attitude would never cover all the community. Homogenous-nodes group resulted somewhat deterring in accepting the militant opinion with an agreement level of around 0.6. For heterogonous communities the edge agreement level closed up to around 0.7-0.8. The model reproduces the fact that there would be always a fraction of opposition whatsoever regime is applied. It produces various outcomes imitating the complexity of the social behaviour.

Log-periodic (LP) functions of the general form y = y 0 + A(t − t c ) m (1 + Bcos(ω ∗ log(t − t c ) + ϕ 1)) have been demonstrated effective in the analysis of the processes characterized by the discrete scale of invariance (DSI) structure and also self-organization behaviour. If other self-organization processes opposing or supporting the principal activity would be present, a multilevel DSI structure is expected to develop and the resulting dynamics would depart from the log-periodic shape. When discussing the processes characterising the daily new positive records for the COVID-19 cases in the country (Albania) we have identified the elements that are responsible to generate modified LP behaviour. The new records that initially represented simply the findings of the state laboratories, are modified each successive days by the pressure for more tests form anxious individuals and other effects which produce a herding behaviour which emergence a LP dynamics. Meanwhile, the reactive behaviour aiming to oppose undesired occurrence would generate additional LP sub-processes that can be trapped by a modified LP function of the form y = y 0 + A(t − t c ) m + B(t − t c ) m cos (ω ∗ log(t − t c ) + ϕ 1) + C cos( (ω − ω 1 ) log(t − t c ) + ϕ 2)+D(t − t c ) m cos ((ω + ω 1) log(t − t c ) + ϕ 3). During the period of the self-organization behaviour the process is highly nonlinear and therefore the classical models (SIR) based on the mean field assumption and the corresponding ODE equations are not effective to represent the system dynamics. In our case the LP fit to the Covid-19 new cases data series, has challenged the ODE models for the time interval of initial appearance of the positive cases in the country (as of 2 March 2020) up to 3 month later. Also, the LP function has predicated the multiphase waving behaviour and we have forecasted two peak, each of them weeks before recurrence, respectively at 28 April and 10-12 June. Those peaks have been confirmed later within 2 days uncertainty. It resulted that the first regime have been succeeded by another new self-organization regime due to drastic condition changes as result of the socio-economic opening which started in the end of the May 2020. As result, the new regime is juxtaposed over the old one and the LP dynamics remained characteristic and another critical time has appeared. The new critical time has been reproduced with good certainty (1 August) and also the magnitude of the new cases. We observed that our empirical LP function is effective in the describing long term dynamics whereas local techniques involving neural networks approaches have reproduced very well the new cases after the first regime. We concluded that after identification of the LP regimes, we can adopt successfully short time forecasting for new occurrence when working away from the critical time identified by the first method.

In this paper we discuss some findings on the estimation of the informal economy in a particular economical system, the Republic of Macedonia. We observed that undeviating application of standard models could produce different results and therefore some preliminary precaution has been taken. Therefore, by performing step by step analysis we conclude in acceptable values and in the evidencing of dominant factors that simulate informal economy. The work reveals the importance of model’s assumption fulfilling in the case of economic systems where observables are non-stationary and the economy itself is typically in dynamical evolution. As result of such improvement of the procedure we obtained that the country’s informal economy is going slight down starting from a local peak value touched in 2010-2011. By now it is stabilized around the values 33%-35% of GDP. We obtained herein that the majority of economic and political measures undertaken recently in the framework of informality reduction have worked in the aimed direction. From the factors point of view we obtained that contribution of some variables in the informal economy growth in the period analyzed

Here we consider the observed changes in the consumer expenses in a district of Albania following market sales discount. By calculating latent variable as the usefulness of the discounts offered we interpret the net expenses surplus as related to the actual marketing activities. Here we use a reduced set of variables related to the house holding as gender and age of principal buyers, and some few marketing aspects as telephone calls, whereas as response variable we choose the average days of market visits and expenses. In the area we investigated we obtained that the offered discounts promote rising expenses which in turn tells that the consumer behave as minimalist buyer as a responses of higher prices and not limited budged. This supports the idea that the consumers in this area are mostly rational. Next we see that the most accented effect is related to the average costume expenses that suggest the marketing activity related to this category of consumers.

In standard econometric application all variables are analyzed statistically before being used in mathematical models. In this framework we considered non-stationary distribution as an starting procedure on the study of consumer behavior in a local market area whereof non-homogeneity of buyers and small size effect could be present. By evaluation of the degree of non-stationary of the actual state for particular variable as observed, we hope to be able to estimate and interpret the model outcomes. Assuming the non-stationary of variables as indicator of the overall stet itself, we argue that the state where observation were made is non-stationary too, and for that reason, models are expected to not fit well. In the other hand, by dropping the significance level in model fitting process we expect to count for this instability whereas the model remains valid. Herewith, the logistic model for consumer behavior in our system is applied and calculated using significance level 0.85-0.90. Under such limiting constraint assumption we identified the variables that mostly affected the proportion between expense categories and the characteristics of the expenses that mostly describe the market consumer behavior in the unity studied. We hope that methodically this procedure could be helpful for other similar market or socio-metric study as well.

Albania is reforming its society and political mentality to better-fit new needs and responsibilities toward the European Union and western values the country always dreamed. Nevertheless, the political mentality of the past, which today is part of the process of political reformation, is slowing the process of integration toward western values. Political forces somehow are resisting the upgrade of their political mentality to these newer western political concepts. Albania had made big steps reforming the economy, and the political class is committed in making the country desirable for foreign investors as well as creating comforts for domestic ones. A successful integration is occurring, although several challenges need to be considered in order to fasten this process. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2015.v6n4p219