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1. Enhancing immunogenic responses through CDK4/6 and HIF2α inhibition in Merkel cell carcinoma

Author: Jung Hyun Lee, Justin Daho Lee, Kelly Paulson, Valentin Voillet, Andre Berndt, Candice Church, Kristina Lachance, Song Y. Park, Naomi K. Yamamoto, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Raphael Gottardo, Aude G. Chapuis, and Paul Nghiem
Subjects: CDK4/6 inhibitor, Hypoxia, Immunogenic cell death, Science (General), Q1-390, Social sciences (General), H1-99
Abstract: Approximately 50% of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) patients facing this highly aggressive skin cancer initially respond positively to PD-1-based immunotherapy. Nevertheless, the recurrence of MCC post-immunotherapy emphasizes the pressing need for more effective treatments. Recent research has highlighted Cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) as pivotal cell cycle regulators gaining prominence in cancer studies. This study reveals that the CDK4/6 inhibitor, palbociclib can enhance PD-L1 gene transcription and surface expression in MCC cells by activating HIF2α. Inhibiting HIF2α with TC-S7009 effectively counteracts palbociclib-induced PD-L1 transcription and significantly intensifies cell death in MCC. Simultaneously, co-targeting CDK4/6 and HIF2α boosts ROS levels while suppressing SLC7A11, a key regulator of cellular redox balance, promoting ferroptosis- a form of immunogenic cell death linked to iron. Considering the rising importance of immunogenic cell death in immunotherapy, this strategy holds promise for improving future MCC treatments, markedly increasing immunogenic cell death across various MCC cell lines, thus advancing cancer immunotherapy.
Published: 2024
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2. The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000–2018: a geospatial analysis

Author: Chris A. Schmidt, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Elex Hill, Katie M. Donkers, Megan F. Schipp, Kimberly B. Johnson, David M. Pigott, LBD 2019 Neglected Tropical Diseases Collaborators, and Simon I. Hay
Subjects: Onchocerciasis, Geospatial model, Neglected tropical diseases, Medicine
Abstract: Abstract Background Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. Methods A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000–2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000–2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. Results As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0–22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. Conclusions Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.
Published: 2022
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3. Slaying little dragons: the impact of the Guinea Worm Eradication Program on dracunculiasis disability averted from 1990 to 2016 [version 1; referees: 3 approved]

Author: Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Sharon Roy, Dieudonne P. Sankara, Adam Weiss, Jeffrey Stanaway, Ellen Goldberg, David M. Pigott, Heidi Larson, Stein Emil Vollset, Kristopher Krohn, Kyle Foreman, Peter Hotez, Zulfiqar Bhutta, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Dumessa Edessa, Nicholas Kassembaum, Ali Mokdad, Christopher J. L. Murray, and Simon I. Hay
Subjects: Medicine
Abstract: Background: The objective of this study was to document the worldwide decline of dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease, GWD) burden, expressed as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 1990 to 2016, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study 2016 (GBD 2016). While the annual number of cases of GWD have been consistently reported by WHO since the 1990s, the burden of disability due to GWD has not previously been quantified in GBD. Methods: The incidence of GWD was modeled for each endemic country using annual national case reports. A literature search was conducted to characterize the presentation of GWD, translate the clinical symptoms into health sequelae, and then assign an average duration to the infection. Prevalence measures by sequelae were multiplied by disability weights to estimate DALYs. Results: The total DALYs attributed to GWD across all endemic countries (n=21) in 1990 was 50,725 (95% UI: 35,265–69,197) and decreased to 0.9 (95% UI: 0.5–1.4) in 2016. A cumulative total of 12,900 DALYs were attributable to GWD from 1990 to 2016. Conclusions: Using 1990 estimates of burden propagated forward, this analysis suggests that between 990,000 to 1.9 million DALYs have been averted as a result of the eradication program over the past 27 years.
Published: 2018
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4. Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods [version 2; referees: 3 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Author: Kebede Deribe, Jorge Cano, Emanuele Giorgi, David M. Pigott, Nick Golding, Rachel L. Pullan, Abdisalan M. Noor, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Fikre Enquselassie, Asrat Hailu, Christopher J. L. Murray, Melanie J. Newport, Simon J. Brooker, Simon I. Hay, and Gail Davey
Subjects: Epidemiology, Parasitology, Medicine, Science
Abstract: Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the magnitude of podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Conclusions: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.
Published: 2017
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5. Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

Author: Kebede Deribe, Jorge Cano, Emanuele Giorgi, David M. Pigott, Nick Golding, Rachel L. Pullan, Abdisalan M. Noor, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Fikre Enquselassie, Asrat Hailu, Christopher J. L. Murray, Melanie J. Newport, Simon J. Brooker, Simon I. Hay, and Gail Davey
Subjects: Epidemiology, Parasitology, Medicine, Science
Abstract: Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the number of people with podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 villages in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Discussion: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.
Published: 2017
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6. Correction: The Geographical Distribution and Burden of Trachoma in Africa.

Author: Jennifer L. Smith, Rebecca M. Flueckiger, Pamela J. Hooper, Sarah Polack, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Stephanie L. Palmer, Paul M. Emerson, David C. W. Mabey, Anthony W. Solomon, Danny Haddad, and Simon J. Brooker
Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Published: 2013
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7. Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.

Author: Elizabeth A Cromwell, Joshua C P Osborne, Thomas R Unnasch, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, Katherine M Gass, Kira A Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B Johnson, Katie M Donkers, Shreya Shirude, Chris A Schmidt, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Mohsen Afarideh, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Vahid Alipour, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Fereshteh Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Benjamin F Arnold, Marcel Ausloos, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barac, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Mohsen Bayati, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Mahdi Bohluli, Oliver J Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Zahid A Butt, Felix Carvalho, Souranshu Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Saad M A Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Diaz, Hoa Thi Do, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Anwar Faraj, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Yousef Fatahi, Valery L Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya A Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, Tarig B Higazi, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D Ilic, Irena M Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ravi Prakash Jha, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Zubair Kabir, Leila R Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Behzad Karami Matin, Salah Eddin Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Taras Kavetskyy, Gbenga A Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Maryam Keramati, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Neda Kianipour, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Yun Jin Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Kris J Krohn, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Van Charles Lansingh, Paul H Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Shanshan Li, Joshua Longbottom, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Afshin Maleki, Abdullah A Mamun, Ali Manafi, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Walter Mendoza, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R Miller, Mohammad Miri, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Masoud Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Jonathan F Mosser, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Ionut Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Bogdan Oancea, Tinuke O Olagunju, Andrew T Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Adrian Pana, Hadi Pourjafar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Serge Resnikoff, Melese Abate Reta, Aziz Rezapour, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Ehsan Sadeghi, Abedin Saghafipour, S Mohammad Sajadi, Abdallah M Samy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Monika Sawhney, Megan F Schipp, Amira A Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Aziz Sheikh, B Suresh Kumar Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K M Shivakumar, Biagio Simonetti, Jasvinder A Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amin Soheili, Shahin Soltani, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Takahiro Tabuchi, Leili Tapak, Robert L Thompson, Alan J Thomson, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Olalekan A Uthman, Natalie V S Vinkeles Melchers, Francesco S Violante, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Hebat-Allah Salah A Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Leila Zaki, Sojib Bin Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I Hay, and David M Pigott
Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.
Published: 2021
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8. Real-world Associations of US Cystic Fibrosis Newborn Screening Programs With Nutritional and Pulmonary Outcomes

Author: Margaret Rosenfeld, Josh Ostrenga, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Amalia Magaret, Rhonda Szczesniak, Aliza Fink, Michael S. Schechter, Albert Faro, Clement L. Ren, Wayne Morgan, and Don B. Sanders
Subjects: Neonatal Screening, Cystic Fibrosis, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Infant, Newborn, Humans, Infant, Female, Child, Lung, Body Height, Retrospective Studies
Abstract: ImportanceNewborn screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF) has been universal in the US since 2010, but its association with clinical outcomes is unclear.ObjectiveTo describe the real-world effectiveness of NBS programs for CF in the US on outcomes up to age 10 years.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis was a retrospective cohort study using CF Foundation Patient Registry data from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2018. The staggered implementation of NBS programs by state was used to compare longitudinal outcomes among children in the same birth cohort born before vs after the implementation of NBS for CF in their state of birth. Participants included children with an established diagnosis of CF born between January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2018, in any of the 44 states that implemented NBS for CF between 2003 and 2010. Data were analyzed from October 5, 2020, to April 22, 2022.ExposuresBirth before vs after the implementation of NBS for CF in the state of birth.Main Outcomes and MeasuresLongitudinal trajectory of height and weight percentiles from diagnosis, lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second, [FEV1] percent predicted) from age 6 years, and age at initial and chronic infection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa using linear mixed-effects and time-to-event models adjusting for birth cohort and potential confounders.ResultsA total of 9571 participants (4713 female participants [49.2%]) were eligible for inclusion, with 4510 (47.1%) in the pre-NBS cohort. NBS was associated with higher weight and height percentiles in the first year of life (weight, 6.0; 95% CI, 3.1-8.4; height, 6.6; 95% CI, 3.8-9.3), but these differences decreased with age. There was no association between NBS and FEV1 at age 6 years, but the percent-predicted FEV1 did increase more rapidly with age in the post-NBS cohort. NBS was associated with older age at chronic P aeruginosa infection (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.89) but not initial P aeruginosa infection (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.77-1.01).Conclusions and RelevanceNBS for CF in the US was associated with improved nutritional status up to age 10 years, a more rapid increase in lung function, and delayed chronic P aeruginosa infection. In the future, as highly effective modulator therapies become available for infants with CF, NBS will allow for presymptomatic initiation of these disease-modifying therapies before irreversible organ damage.
Published: 2023

9. Preserving the Phosphoproteome of Clinical Biopsies Using a Quick-Freeze Collection Device

Author: Jacob J. Kennedy, Amanda Woodcock, Richard G. Ivey, ChenWei Lin, Guy Corral, Eli Hooper, Gregory Martin, Gina Longman, Blake Stancik, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Jeffrey R. Whiteaker, Lei Zhao, Travis D. Lorentzen, Scott Thielman, and Amanda G. Paulovich
Subjects: Proteomics, Mice, Proteome, Biopsy, Freezing, Humans, Animals, Medicine (miscellaneous), Tissue Preservation, Cell Biology, General Medicine, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
Abstract: There is growing interest in proteomic analyses of tissue biopsies to reveal pathophysiology and identify biomarkers. The current gold standard for collecting tissue biopsies for preserving the proteome and post-translational modifications is flash freezing in liquid nitrogen (LN2). However, in many clinical settings, this is not an option due to unavailability of LN2 nor trained personnel for rapid biospecimen processing. To address this need, we developed a proof-of-concept quick-freeze prototype device to rapidly freeze biospecimens at the point-of-care to preserve the phosphoproteome without the need for LN2. Our objectives were to develop the device, demonstrate the ease of use, confirm the ability to ship through existing cold chain logistics, and evaluate the cooling performance (i.e., cool a tissue sample to0°C in60 seconds, below -8°C in120 seconds, and maintain temperature0°C for60 minutes) in the context of preserving the proteome in a tissue biospecimen. To demonstrate feasibility, the performance of the prototype was benchmarked against flash freezing in LN2 using a murine melanoma patient-derived xenograft model subjected to total body irradiation to elicit phosphosignaling in the DNA damage response network. Tumors were harvested and quadrisected, with two parts of the tumor being snap frozen in LN2, and the remaining two parts being rapidly cooled in the prototype quick-freeze biospecimen containers. Phosphoproteins were profiled by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and quantified by targeted multiple reaction monitoring MS. Overall, the phosphoproteome was equivalent in biospecimens processed using the quick-freeze containers to those using the LN2 gold standard, although the measurements of a subset of phosphopeptides in the device-frozen specimens were more variable than LN2-frozen specimens. The prototype device forms the framework for development of a commercial device that will improve tissue biopsy preservation for measurement of important phosphosignaling molecules.
Published: 2022

10. Cystic fibrosis prevalence in the United States and participation in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry in 2020

Author: Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua S. Ostrenga, Jonathan V. Todd, Alexander Elbert, A. Whitney Brown, Albert Faro, Christopher H. Goss, and Bruce C. Marshall
Subjects: Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health
Published: 2023

11. Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach

Author: Jorge Cano, Simon I. Hay, David M. Pigott, Oliver J. Brady, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Abdisalan M. Noor, Simon Brooker, Melanie J. Newport, Hope Simpson, Gail Davey, Kebede Deribe, Daniel Argaw, Rachel L. Pullan, Nicole Davis Weaver, and Christopher J L Murray
Subjects: 0301 basic medicine, Epidemiology, RC955-962, Population Dynamics, Global Health, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Geographical Locations, 0302 clinical medicine, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Global health, Prevalence, Medicine and Health Sciences, Edema, Podoconiosis, Elephantiasis, Lymphedema, education.field_of_study, Disease surveillance, Research Assessment, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Geography, Topography, Medical, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Research Article, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Asia, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, MEDLINE, Disease Surveillance, Research and Analysis Methods, 03 medical and health sciences, Signs and Symptoms, Diagnostic Medicine, Environmental health, medicine, Parasitic Diseases, Humans, education, Estimation, Population Biology, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Biology and Life Sciences, medicine.disease, Tropical Diseases, Geographic Distribution, 030104 developmental biology, People and Places, Africa, Observational study, Ethiopia
Abstract: Background Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution. Methods and findings We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status. There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed. Conclusion The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis., Author summary The global distribution of podoconiosis is uncertain. With our current understanding of its distribution still incomplete, many of the countries suspected to be endemic for podoconiosis are based on expert opinion and lack published evidence of confirmed cases. In this study, we used multiple data sources and health metrics to identify countries with presence and absence of podoconiosis with appropriate uncertainties. After assembling a database of different evidence types we constructed a weighted score for each country called ‘evidence consensus scores’. We used these scores to measure the certainty of the presence and absence of podoconiosis. The maps produced help to identify evidence gaps and uncertainties in the current global distribution of podoconiosis. Countries with evidence of podoconiosis are mostly clustered in Africa, and a few in Asia and Latin America. We have also identified countries with indeterminate status on the presence and absences of podoconiosis. These countries are characterised by weak health systems and multiple co-endemic diseases causing lower leg swelling, potentially leading to misdiagnosis of podoconiosis. Given these challenges, we recommend intensified disease surveillance and active case searching be implemented in areas where evidence is lacking.
Published: 2021

12. Ecological and Socioeconomic Predictors of Transmission Assessment Survey Failure for Lymphatic Filariasis

Author: David M. Pigott, Simon I. Hay, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Denise Mupfasoni, Ellen M Goldberg, Jonathan D. King, and Kevin Kwong
Subjects: 030231 tropical medicine, World Health Organization, Logistic regression, Odds, law.invention, 03 medical and health sciences, Elephantiasis, Filarial, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Virology, Covariate, Disease Transmission, Infectious, medicine, Humans, Socioeconomic status, Ecosystem, Lymphatic filariasis, business.industry, Data Collection, Articles, Odds ratio, medicine.disease, Filaricides, Infectious Diseases, Transmission (mechanics), Socioeconomic Factors, Sample size determination, Epidemiological Monitoring, Mass Drug Administration, Parasitology, business, Demography
Abstract: The transmission assessment survey (TAS) is recommended to determine whether cessation of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) is warranted. Ministries of health typically implement TASs in evaluation units (EUs) that have had more than five rounds of annual MDA. Under TAS guidelines, sample size calculations determine a decision value: if the number of individuals testing positive exceeds this threshold, then MDA continues in the EU. The objective of this study was to determine whether fine scale geospatial covariates could be used to identify predictors of TAS failure. We geo-referenced 746 TAS EUs, of which 65 failed and extracted geospatial covariates using R to estimate odds of failure. We implemented stepwise backward elimination to select covariates for inclusion in a logistic regression to estimate the odds of TAS failure. Covariates included environmental predictors (aridity, distance to fresh water, elevation, and enhanced vegetation index), cumulative rounds of MDA, measures of urbanicity and access, LF species, and baseline prevalence. Presence of Brugia was significantly associated with TAS failure (odds ratio [OR]: 4.79, 95% CI: 2.52–9.07), as was population density (OR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.06–7.98). The presence of nighttime lights was highly protective against failure (OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.10–0.50), as was an increase in elevation (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18–0.732). This work identifies predictors associated with TAS failure at the EU areal level, given the data presently available, and also identifies the need for more granular data to conduct a more robust assessment of these predictors.
Published: 2019

13. Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Author: Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua C.P. Osborne, Thomas R. Unnasch, María Gloria Basáñez, Katherine M. Gass, Kira A. Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B. Johnson, Katie M. Donkers, Shreya Shirude, Chris A. Schmidt, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Mohsen Afarideh, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M. Alanzi, Vahid Alipour, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Fereshteh Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Benjamin F. Arnold, Marcel Ausloos, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barac, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Mohsen Bayati, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Mahdi Bohluli, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Zahid A. Butt, Félix Carvalho, Souranshu Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Diaz, Hoa Thi Do, Maysaa El Sayed Zak, Maha El Tantawi, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Anwar Faraj, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Yousef Fatahi, Valery L. Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj‐mirzaian, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Hagos Degefa De Hidru, Tarig B. Higazi, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ravi Prakash Jha, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Zubair Kabir, Leila R. Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Behzad Karami Matin, Salah Eddin Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Taras Kavetskyy, Gbenga A. Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Maryam Keramati, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M. Khater, Neda Kianipour, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Yun Jin Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Kris J. Krohn, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Charles Lansingh Van, Paul H. Lee, Kate E. Legrand, S. (Shanshan) Li, Joshua Longbottom, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Afshin Maleki, Abdullah Mamun, Ali Manafi, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Walter Mendoza, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R. Miller, Mohammad Miri, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Masoud Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Jonathan F. Mosser, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Ionut Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Bogdan Oancea, Tinuke O. Olagunju, Andrew T. Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E. Onwujekwe, Adrian Pana, Hadi Pourjafar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Serge Resnikoff, Melese Abate Reta, Aziz Rezapour, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Ehsan Sadeghi, Abedin Saghafipour, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Abdallah M. Samy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Monika Sawhney, Megan F. Schipp, Amira A. Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, A (Aziz) Sheikh, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Biagio Simonetti, Jasvinder A. Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amin Soheili, Shahin Soltani, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Takahiro Tabuchi, Leili Tapak, Robert L. Thompson, Alan J. Thomson, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Olalekan A. Uthman, Natalie V.S.Vinkeles Melchers, Francesco S. Violante, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Leila Zaki, Sojib Bin Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Zhi Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I. Hay, David M. Pigott, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua C.P. Osborne, Thomas R. Unnasch, María Gloria Basáñez, Katherine M. Gass, Kira A. Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B. Johnson, Katie M. Donkers, Shreya Shirude, Chris A. Schmidt, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Mohsen Afarideh, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ziyad Al-Aly, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M. Alanzi, Vahid Alipour, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Fereshteh Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Davood Anvari, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Benjamin F. Arnold, Marcel Ausloos, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Atif Amin Baig, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barac, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Mohsen Bayati, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Mahdi Bohluli, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Zahid A. Butt, Félix Carvalho, Souranshu Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Giovanni Damiani, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Ahmad Daryani, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Diaz, Hoa Thi Do, Maysaa El Sayed Zak, Maha El Tantawi, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Anwar Faraj, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Yousef Fatahi, Valery L. Feigin, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya A. Foigt, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Davide Guido, Yuming Guo, Arvin Haj‐mirzaian, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Samer Hamidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Hagos Degefa De Hidru, Tarig B. Higazi, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Irena M. Ilic, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Ravi Prakash Jha, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Zubair Kabir, Leila R. Kalankesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Behzad Karami Matin, Salah Eddin Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Taras Kavetskyy, Gbenga A. Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Maryam Keramati, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M. Khater, Neda Kianipour, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Yun Jin Kim, Soewarta Kosen, Kris J. Krohn, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Charles Lansingh Van, Paul H. Lee, Kate E. Legrand, S. (Shanshan) Li, Joshua Longbottom, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Afshin Maleki, Abdullah Mamun, Ali Manafi, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Walter Mendoza, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tomislav Mestrovic, Ted R. Miller, Mohammad Miri, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Shafiu Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Masoud Moradi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Paula Moraga, Jonathan F. Mosser, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gurudatta Naik, Ionut Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Bogdan Oancea, Tinuke O. Olagunju, Andrew T. Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna E. Onwujekwe, Adrian Pana, Hadi Pourjafar, Fakher Rahim, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Priya Rathi, Salman Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Serge Resnikoff, Melese Abate Reta, Aziz Rezapour, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Ehsan Sadeghi, Abedin Saghafipour, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Abdallah M. Samy, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Monika Sawhney, Megan F. Schipp, Amira A. Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, A (Aziz) Sheikh, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Biagio Simonetti, Jasvinder A. Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amin Soheili, Shahin Soltani, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Takahiro Tabuchi, Leili Tapak, Robert L. Thompson, Alan J. Thomson, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Irfan Ullah, Saif Ullah, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Olalekan A. Uthman, Natalie V.S.Vinkeles Melchers, Francesco S. Violante, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Tomohide Yamada, Sanni Yaya, Vahid Yazdi Feyzabadi, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Leila Zaki, Sojib Bin Zaman, Maryam Zamanian, Zhi Jiang Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Simon I. Hay, and David M. Pigott
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The for
Published: 2021
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14. The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18:a geospatial analysis

Author: Nataliya Foigt, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Paramjit Gill, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Mario Poljak, Siavash Rahimi, Olalekan A. Uthman, Animut Alebel, Mohsen Naghavi, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Maarten J. Postma, Zemichael Gizaw, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Leonardo Roever, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Smita Pakhale, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Robert C. Reiner, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Walter Mendoza, Azeem Majeed, Agus Sudaryanto, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Kate E. LeGrand, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mehdi Sayyah, Konrad Pesudovs, Mahesh P A, Nihal Thomas, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Muhammad Usman, Balbir Singh, Ahsan Saleem, Ahmed Abualhasan, Maheswar Satpathy, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Ali H. Mokdad, Irfan Ullah, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Luca Ronfani, James Albright, Si Si, Bartosz Miazgowski, Moses K. Muriithi, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Brijesh Sathian, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Tufa Kolola, Mona M. Khater, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Andrew T Olagunju, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Rosario Cardenas, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Benjamin K. Mayala, Soraya Siabani, Ebrahim Babaee, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Miliva Mozaffor, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Joseph Frostad, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Quynh Anh P. Nguyen, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Junaid Khan, Dessalegn Haile, Marcel Ausloos, David C. Schwebel, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Milena Ilic, Ionut Negoi, Ninuk Hariyani, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Sachin R Atre, Goura Kishor Rath, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Eirini Skiadaresi, Simon I. Hay, Preeti Dhillon, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Gebrehiwot G. Kassa, Nicole Davis Weaver, Mowafa Househ, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Bahram Armoon, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Alexandria Brown, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Mihiretu Kebede, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Bach Xuan Tran, Lal B. Rawal, Kala M. Mehta, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Heather J. Zar, Shiwei Liu, Norberto Perico, I A Adedeji, Sergio I. Prada, Shai Linn, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Brigette F. Blacker, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Amit Arora, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Sanjay Zodpey, Farshad Farzadfar, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, D. R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Ajay Patle, Daniel Adane Endalew, Jagdish Khubchandani, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Derrick A Bennett, Ziad A. Memish, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Hisham Atan Edinur, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Robert S. Bernstein, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Tomohide Yamada, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Mohamed I Hegazy, Liliana Preotescu, Sanjay Basu, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Ali Bijani, Shanshan Li, Alem Girmay, Sonali Kochhar, Meghnath Dhimal, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Saravanan Muthupandian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Shally Awasthi, Samer Hamidi, Davide Guido, Van C. Lansingh, Engida Yisma, Muhammad Redzwan S Rashid Ali, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Ali Kiadaliri, Hamed Zandian, Aparna Lal, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Dhirendra N Sinha, Florian Fischer, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Khanh Bao Tran, Kimberly B. Johnson, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Vo Dinh Bay, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Gbenga A. Kayode, John S. Ji, Akhil Soman ThekkePurakkal, Santi Martini, Behzad Heibati, Kebreab Paulos, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Vishnu Renjith, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Dinh Toi Chu, Gregory M. Garcia, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Krishna K. Aryal, Irina Filip, Michelle L. Bell, Manfred S. Green, Alaa Badawi, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Anton Sokhan, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Navid Manafi, Siddhesh Zadey, Davide Rasella, Hedayat Abbastabar, Manu Raj Mathur, Till Bärnighausen, Paula Moraga, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Mahya Beheshti, Farnam Mohebi, Genet Melak Alamene, Andem Effiong, Thomas R. Hird, Colm McAlinden, In-Hwan Oh, Arash Etemadi, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Rajesh Sharma, Puja C Rao, Masoud Foroutan, Sangram Kishor Patel, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Aniruddha Deshpande, Paul H. Lee, Tukur Dahiru, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Alireza Rafiei, Somayeh Bohlouli, Juan Sanabria, Javad Nazari, Siamak Sabour, Izza Shahid, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, André Karch, Mehdi Yaseri, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Pushpendra Kumar, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khalid A. Altirkawi, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Sojib Bin Zaman, Gillian I. Hollerich, Hajer Elkout, Jonathan F. Mosser, Fakher Rahim, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Benny Antony, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Bineyam Taye, Ghulam Mustafa, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Vahid Alipour, Themba G. Ginindza, Wubalem Fekadu, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Delia Hendrie, Santosh Varughese, Manasi Kumar, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Aziz Sheikh, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Mohsen Bayati, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Kinley Wangdi, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Marzieh Nojomi, Carlo La Vecchia, Nuworza Kugbey, Zubair Kabir, Aslam Pervaiz, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf, Narinder Pal Singh, Jan Walter De Neve, Mohammad Khazaei, G. K. Mini, Eun-Kee Park, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Syed Ather Hussain, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Nasir Salam, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Babak Moazen, Adnan Kisa, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Mitchell T. Wallin, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Anwar Ahmed, Yousef Mohammad, Tanuj Kanchan, Feleke Gebremeskel W, Rajesh Sagar, Marwa Rashad Salem, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Ammar Albujeer, Yasir Waheed, Noore Alam, Vera Marisa Costa, Rajat Das Gupta, Ritesh G. Menezes, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Amira Shaheen, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Ken Lee Chin, Ghobad Moradi, Ruth W Kimokoti, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Kirsten E. Wiens, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, K M Shivakumar, Ziad El-Khatib, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Ronny Westerman, Kamarul Imran Musa, Farshad Pourmalek, Kiomars Sharafi, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, D J Christopher, Valery L. Feigin, Harish Chander Gugnani, Mathew M. Baumann, Platon D. Lopukhov, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Hai Quang Pham, Luis Alberto Cámera, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Ahmad Daryani, Teferi Mekonnen, Yousef Veisani, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Parvaiz A Koul, Daniel Diaz, Ali S. Akanda, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Daniel J. Weiss, Nauman Khalid, Hassen Mohammed, Edson Serván-Mori, Foad Abd-Allah, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Abdullah Al Mamun, Yoshan Moodley, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Abdu A. Adamu, Fatemeh Rajati, German Martinez, Habib Benzian, Georgy Lebedev, Ben Lacey, Amir Hasanzadeh, Amir Khater, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Juanita A. Haagsma, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Virendra Singh, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Gabrielle Britton, Tiffany K. Gill, Sezer Kisa, Zahid A. Butt, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Ian Pollock, Ted R. Miller, Rebecca Ivers, Savita Lasrado, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Benn Sartorius, Maciej Banach, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Hedley Quintana, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Praveen Hoogar, Ehsan Sadeghi, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Bogdan Oancea, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Ester Cerin, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Jennifer Rickard, M Alijanzadeh, Ali Almasi, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Sandra B. Munro, Ambrish Singh, Naohiro Yonemoto, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Daniel Asmelash, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Natalie Maria Cormier, Samiah Alam, Yahya Salimi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Anh Kim Dang, Jae Il Shin, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Taweewat Wiangkham, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Eleonora Dubljanin, Itamar S. Santos, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Amir Kasaeian, Yahya Safari, Abel Fekadu Fekadu Dadi, Mohammad Fareed, Peter Memiah, Ali Kabir, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ali Yadollahpour, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Reza Malekzadeh, Shymaa Enany, Hamidreza Haririan, Ayman Grada, Amador Goodridge, Salvatore Rubino, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Jalal Arabloo, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Masoud Behzadifar, Fernando de la Hoz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Hosni Salem, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, G Anil Kumar, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Jasvinder A. Singh, Yuan-Pang Wang, Tissa Wijeratne, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Sebastian Vollmer, Rakhi Dandona, Ahmed Abdelalim, Akram Pourshams, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Alan J Thomson, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Alex Yeshaneh, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Obinna Onwujekwe, Ali S. Shalash, Bahram Mohajer, Nefsu Awoke, Hoa Thi Do, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Giang Hai Ha, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Vinay Nangia, David M. Pigott, Arash Ziapour, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Andrew S. Azman, Amira Hamed Darwish, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Soewarta Kosen, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Soufiane Boufous, Mehedi Hasan, Franz Castro, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Oliver J. Brady, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Olatunde Aremu, Samad Azari, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Saeed Amini, Mehdi Ahmadi, Andualem Henok, Yafeng Wang, Nevine El Nahas, Paul S. F. Yip, Miguel A Barboza, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh, Gurudatta Naik, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, hawariat, Enrico Rubagotti, Andre Faro, Kebede Deribe, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Robert L. Thompson, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Lalit Dandona, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Ashish Pathak, Masoud Moradi, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Vivekanand Jha, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Chabila C Mapoma, Aubrey J. Levine, Solomon Gedlu Nigatu, Keivan Ahmadi, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Kewal Krishan, Hany Aref, Alebachew Fasil Fasil, Aziz Eftekhari, Claudiu Herteliu, Wasiq Faraz Rawasia, Zoubida Zaidi, Simin Mouodi, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Getinet Ayano, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Usman Iqbal, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Workua Mekonnen Metekiya, Chuanhua Yu, Pascual R. Valdez, Mohsen Mazidi, Hamidreza Komaki, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Mina Anjomshoa, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Mostafa Leili, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Tomislav Mestrovic, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Chi Linh Hoang, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Christopher J L Murray, Reza Shirkoohi, Aditya Prasad Dash, Thomas Pilgrim, Alessandra C. Goulart, Rajeev Gupta, Mustafa Z. Younis, Maha El Tantawi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Aleksandra Barac, Christiane Dolecek, Mohammad Mahdi Zamani, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Faris Lami, Mehdi Naderi, Yunquan Zhang, Babak Eshrati, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Navid Rabiee, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Netsanet Fentahun, Nuruzzaman Khan, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Serge Resnikoff, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Surendra Karki, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Sonia Lewycka, Rashmi Gupta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Neeraj Bedi, Binaya Chalise, Masood Ali Shaikh, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Kerrie E. Doyle, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Jorge Cano, Jai K Das, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Boris Bikbov, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Mohsen Afarideh, Behnam Heidari, Fares Alahdab, Takahiro Tabuchi, J. Car, Hilton Y. Lam, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Linda Morales, Brian J. Hall, Mamusha Aman Hussen, Carsten Flohr, Ravi Prakash Jha, Shafiu Mohammed, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Abbas Mosapour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mohamed M. Gad, Assefa Desalew, Eugenio Traini, Aisha Elsharkawy, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Anas M. Saad, Mohammad Rabiee, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Abdallah M. Samy, Roman Topor-Madry, Afsaneh Arzani, Ayesha Humayun, Michael Tamene Haile, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Farah Daoud, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Public Health, Johnson, KB, Local Burden of Disease 2019 Neglected Tropical Diseases Collaborator, Violante FS, Department of Earth Observation Science, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, GeoHealth, and Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto
Subjects: medicine.medical_specialty, Geospatial analysis, 030231 tropical medicine, Elephantiasis, ELIMINATION, computer.software_genre, Article, Local Burden of Disease 2019 Neglected Tropical Diseases Collaborators, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Environmental health, Global health, medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Mass drug administration, Lymphatic filariasis, Public health, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Tropical disease, lcsh:RA1-1270, General Medicine, medicine.disease, 3. Good health, QR, Geography, Lymphatic system, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, ITC-GOLD, computer, 0605 Microbiology
Abstract: Background Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2020

15. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Author: Joseph Frostad, Eirini Skiadaresi, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, David L. Smith, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Brigette F. Blacker, Nuworza Kugbey, Bineyam Taye, Carlo La Vecchia, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Benny Antony, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Turki Alanzi, Amir Jalali, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Daniel Asmelash, Manu Raj Mathur, Jai K Das, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Sachin R Atre, Tomislav Mestrovic, Rajeev Gupta, Smita Pakhale, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Quynh Anh P. Nguyen, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Chi Linh Hoang, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Manfred Accrombessi, Christopher J L Murray, Ninuk Hariyani, Ken Lee Chin, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Mohammad Fareed, Mustafa Z. Younis, Navid Rabiee, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Brian J. Hall, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Daniel Diaz, Salman Rawaf, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Sonia Lewycka, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Shai Linn, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Thomas Pilgrim, Alessandra C. Goulart, Ravi Prakash Jha, Norberto Perico, Sergio I. Prada, Ted R. Miller, Rebecca Ivers, Habib Benzian, David C. Schwebel, Milena Ilic, Siddhesh Zadey, Davide Rasella, Hedayat Abbastabar, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Kinley Wangdi, Ritesh G. Menezes, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Savita Lasrado, Goura Kishor Rath, Lalit Dandona, Farshad Farzadfar, Georgy Lebedev, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Aniruddha Deshpande, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Praveen Hoogar, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Ambrish Singh, Fatemeh Rajati, Sonali Kochhar, Amir Khater, Ali Almasi, Juanita A. Haagsma, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Rajesh Sharma, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Sezer Kisa, Arash Etemadi, Zubair Kabir, Aslam Pervaiz, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Syed Ather Hussain, Mohsen Mazidi, Hamidreza Komaki, Reza Shirkoohi, Alex Yeshaneh, Faris Lami, Maha El Tantawi, Yunquan Zhang, Hamidreza Haririan, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Tissa Wijeratne, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Bahram Mohajer, Christiane Dolecek, Vinay Nangia, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Usman Iqbal, Nataliya A. Foigt, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Workua Mekonnen Metekiya, Chuanhua Yu, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Pascual R. Valdez, Jennifer Rickard, Masoud Moradi, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Dinh-Toi Chu, Claudiu Herteliu, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Mostafa Leili, Gebrehiwot G. Kassa, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Ester Cerin, Bahram Armoon, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Shafiu Mohammed, Alexandria Brown, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Abbas Mosapour, Bach Xuan Tran, Lal B. Rawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mohamed M. Gad, Eugenio Traini, Aisha Elsharkawy, David M. Pigott, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Reza Malekzadeh, Ahmad Daryani, Olatunde Aremu, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Derrick A Bennett, Oladimeji M. Adebayo, Bogdan Oancea, Jagdish Khubchandani, Sandra B. Munro, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Daniel Adane Endalew, Davide Guido, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Kerrie E. Doyle, Olalekan A. Uthman, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Zemichael Gizaw, Muhammad Usman, Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Aziz Eftekhari, André Karch, Narinder Pal Singh, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Meysam Behzadifar, Amira Hamed Darwish, Soufiane Boufous, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Frank B. Osei, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Zahid A Butt, Paulina A. Lindstedt, Gregory M. Garcia, Balbir Bagicha Singh, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Genet Melak Alamene, Andem Effiong, André Faro, Amit Arora, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Dhirendra N Sinha, Amir Kasaeian, Ali Kabir, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Hosni Salem, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Akhil Soman ThekkePurakkal, Anwar Ahmed, Tanuj Kanchan, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Daniel J. Weiss, Ziad El-Khatib, Jorge Cano, Javad Nazari, Ashish Pathak, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Nuruzzaman Khan, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Serge Resnikoff, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Harish Chander Gugnani, Ali S. Akanda, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Vivekanand Jha, Abdu A. Adamu, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Mohsen Afarideh, Tiffany K. Gill, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Oliver J. Brady, Ebrahim Babaee, Takahiro Tabuchi, Alebachew Fasil, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Marwa Rashad Salem, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Paula Moraga, J. Car, Hoa Thi Do, Samad Azari, hawariat, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Michelle L. Bell, Mohamed I Hegazy, Mehedi Hasan, Mamusha Aman Hussen, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Santi Martini, Vishnu Renjith, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Chabila C Mapoma, Aubrey J. Levine, Solomon Gedlu Nigatu, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Anh Kim Dang, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Kala M. Mehta, Boris Bikbov, Assefa Desalew, Carsten Flohr, Yahya Safari, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Jan-Walter De Neve, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Saeed Amini, Mehdi Ahmadi, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Anas M. Saad, Robert C. Reiner, Ammar Albujeer, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Teferi Mekonnen, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Irina Filip, Ali Yadollahpour, Ali Kiadaliri, Hamed Zandian, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Nader Jahanmehr, Yuming Guo, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Paramjit Gill, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Nicole Davis Weaver, Surendra Karki, Masoud Behzadifar, Vo Dinh Bay, Giang Hai Ha, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, In-Hwan Oh, Puja C Rao, Van Charles Lansingh, Kewal Krishan, Hany Aref, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Shymaa Enany, Ayman Grada, Amador Goodridge, Salvatore Rubino, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Maheswar Satpathy, Amir Radfar, Aparna Lal, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Mehdi Naderi, Siavash Rahimi, Animut Alebel, Mohammad Rabiee, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Sojib Bin Zaman, Alem Girmay, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Abdallah M. Samy, Mario Poljak, G Anil Kumar, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Andrew S. Azman, Ronny Westerman, Thomas R. Hird, Themba G. Ginindza, Babak Moazen, Feleke Gebremeskel W, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Shally Awasthi, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Roman Topor-Madry, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Kamarul Imran Musa, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Afsaneh Arzani, Yousef Veisani, Farshad Pourmalek, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Ayesha Humayun, Michael Tamene Haile, Kiomars Sharafi, Wasiq Faraz Rawasia, Zoubida Zaidi, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Mohammad Zamani, Takeshi Fukumoto, Masoud Foroutan, Noore Alam, Simin Mouodi, Miliva Mozaffor, Khanh Bao Tran, Farnam Mohebi, Sanjay Basu, Robert L. Thompson, Behzad Heibati, Santosh Varughese, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Neeraj Bedi, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Gabriel Martinez, Getinet Ayano, Farah Daoud, Konrad Pesudovs, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Tukur Dahiru, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Andualem Henok, Mina Anjomshoa, Rovshan Khalilov, Ai Koyanagi, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Navid Manafi, Yousef Mohammad, Keivan Ahmadi, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Binaya Chalise, Masood Ali Shaikh, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Delia Hendrie, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Si Si, Manasi Kumar, Netsanet Fentahun, Amira Shaheen, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Ben Lacey, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, K M Shivakumar, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Yahya Salimi, Adnan Kisa, Hisham Atan Edinur, Benn Sartorius, Kate E. LeGrand, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Richard C. Franklin, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Mona M. Khater, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Natalie Maria Cormier, Ghulam Mustafa, Ehsan Sadeghi, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Robert S. Bernstein, Samiah Alam, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Andrew T Olagunju, Obinna Onwujekwe, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Behnam Heidari, Arianna Maever L. Amit, John S. Ji, Pushpendra Kumar, Sangram Kishor Patel, Vera Marisa Costa, Yafeng Wang, Irfan Ullah, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Virendra Singh, Tufa Kolola, Mehdi Yaseri, Abdullah Al Mamun, Hilton Y. Lam, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Samath D Dharmaratne, Hajer Elkout, Yoshan Moodley, Linda Morales, Adrian Pana, Nauman Khalid, Hassen Mohammed, Fakher Rahim, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Mika Shigematsu, Bryan L. Sykes, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Platon D. Lopukhov, Marzieh Nojomi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Dessalegn Haile, Mohsen Bayati, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Yasir Waheed, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Tomohide Yamada, Alireza Rafiei, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Ian Pollock, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Anton Sokhan, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Junaid Khan, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Enrico Rubagotti, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Gillian I. Hollerich, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Eleonora Dubljanin, Itamar S. Santos, Wubalem Fekadu, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Florian Fischer, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Nihal Thomas, Alaa Badawi, Amir Hasanzadeh, Nasir Salam, Muhammad Ali, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Marcel Ausloos, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Jae Il Shin, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Rajesh Sagar, Ahmed Abdelalim, Benjamin K. Mayala, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Shiwei Liu, Soraya Siabani, Jonathan F. Mosser, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Valery L. Feigin, Yuan-Pang Wang, Mathew M. Baumann, Saravanan Muthupandian, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Jasvinder A. Singh, Sebastian Vollmer, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Alan J Thomson, Agus Sudaryanto, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Ahsan Saleem, Ali S. Shalash, Rakhi Dandona, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Ahmed Abualhasan, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Meghnath Dhimal, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Akram Pourshams, Ionut Negoi, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Franz Castro, Nefsu Awoke, Vahid Alipour, Rosario Cárdenas, Mohammad Khazaei, Mitchell T. Wallin, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Sanjay Zodpey, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Ziad A. Memish, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Samer Hamidi, Gbenga A. Kayode, Peter Memiah, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Francesco Saverio Violante, Bartosz Miazgowski, Babak Eshrati, Moses K. Muriithi, Mihiretu Kebede, Mowafa Househ, Monika Sawhney, Preeti Dhillon, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Ajay Patle, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Arash Ziapour, Paul H. Lee, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Aziz Sheikh, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Eun-Kee Park, Kirsten E. Wiens, Hai Quang Pham, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, G. K. Mini, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Hedley Quintana, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Rajat Das Gupta, Parvaiz A Koul, Edson Serván-Mori, Foad Abd-Allah, Rahul Gupta, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Gabrielle B. Britton, Colm McAlinden, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Mohsen Naghavi, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Liliana Preotescu, Walter Mendoza, Manfred S. Green, Mahesh P A, Somayeh Bohlouli, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Ali H. Mokdad, Aditya P Dash, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ghobad Moradi, Ruth W Kimokoti, Jalal Arabloo, Kimberly B. Johnson, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi, D. R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Rufus A. Adedoyin, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Engida Yisma, Azeem Majeed, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Hala Elhabashy, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Juan Sanabria, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Leonardo Roever, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Heather J. Zar, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Ali Bijani, Mehdi Sayyah, Shanshan Li, Kebreab Paulos, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Mahya Beheshti, Siamak Sabour, Izza Shahid, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Luca Ronfani, James Albright, Brijesh Sathian, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Rahman Shiri, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Taweewat Wiangkham, Soewarta Kosen, Fernando de la Hoz, Mohammed Shannawaz, Luis Camera, Nevine El Nahas, Paul S. F. Yip, Miguel A Barboza, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh, Gurudatta Naik, Kebede Deribe, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, IRAS OH Epidemiology Chemical Agents, Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborator, Violante FS, Public Health, Department of Earth Observation Science, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, GeoHealth, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, University of Helsinki, Department of Oncology, Yisma, Engida, and Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborators
Subjects: Drinking water access, Sanitation, Universal design, Geographic Mapping, Socioeconomic Factor, DISEASE, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Hygiene, 11. Sustainability, Global health, 030212 general & internal medicine, media_common, 2. Zero hunger, Public health, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, 1. No poverty, General Medicine, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, 6. Clean water, Low-income countries, 3. Good health, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, CHILD GROWTH, TERRITORIES, HYGIENE, Human, 0605 Microbiology, Diarrhea, AFRICA, medicine.medical_specialty, media_common.quotation_subject, 030231 tropical medicine, Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborators, Developing country, Article, Geographical inequalities, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 12. Responsible consumption, Developing Countrie, 03 medical and health sciences, NUTRITIONAL INTERVENTIONS, Environmental health, medicine, SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS, Humans, QUALITY, Sanitation/statistics & numerical data, Open defecation, Improved sanitation, hand washing, Developing Countries, Models, Statistical, Middle-income countries, Drinking Water, lcsh:RA1-1270, Bayes Theorem, GLOBAL BURDEN, diarrheal disease, DIARRHEA, Diarrhea/epidemiology, Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborator, Socioeconomic Factors, 0605 Microbiology, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, Business, Human medicine, Sanitation facilities, ITC-GOLD
Abstract: Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce highresolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. This work was primarily supported by a grant from the Gates Foundation (OPP1132415). LGA has received support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Finance Code 001), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais. OOA acknowledges the Department of Science and Innovation, National Research Foundation, and DSI/NRF Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch, South Africa. SMAl acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. HTA acknowledges Aksum University. MAu and CH are partly supported by a grant from the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. AAz acknowledges funding from the Gates Foundation (OPP1171700). ABad is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. TWB was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research; the EU; the Wellcome Trust; and from National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of National Institutes of Health (NIH; R01-HD084233), National Institute on Aging of NIH (P01AG041710), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of NIH (R01-AI124389 and R01-AI112339), as well as Fogarty International Center of NIH (D43-TW009775). DABen was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. GBB is supported by Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI) de la Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT) of Panamá. FCar acknowledges UID/ MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior through national funds. VMC acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. JDN acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. DBD acknowledges support from the Gates Foundation. KD is supported by a Wellcome Trust grant (number 201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. AGo acknowledges Sistema Nacional de Investigadores de Panamá (SNI), Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). CH is partly supported by a grant co-funded by European Fund for Regional Development through the Operational Program for Competitiveness (project ID P_40_382). SMSI is funded by a Fellowship from National Heart Foundation of Australia and Deakin University. MJ and the Serbian part of this GBD contribution was co-funded through grant OI175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. JK is a recipient of the 2020 Benjamin V Cohen Peace Fellowship from Ball State University Center for Peace and Conflict Studies. YJK’s work was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia, grants number XMUMRF/2018-C2/ ITCM/0001. KKr is supported by a DST PURSE grant and UGC Center of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. BL acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. PTNM acknowledges the Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa. ANA acknowledges Debre Markos University for its support in-terms of office and internet access while reviewing this paper. AMSam received a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission programme. MMS-M acknowledges the support of the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). AShi acknowledges the support of Health Data Research UK. MRS acknowledges the Clinical Research Development Center of Imam Reza Hospital, Kermanshah university of Medical sciences for their wise advice. JBS is part of Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias (CIBERES), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Madrid, Spain. RT-S was supported in part by grant PI17/00719 from Instituto de Salud Carlos III–FEDER. BU acknowledges Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. TWij acknowledges the Migraine Foundation Australia and the Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Rajarata, Saliyapura, Anuradhapuraya, Sri Lanka. CSW was supported by the South African Medical Research Council. SBZ received a scholarship from the Australian Government research training program in support of his academic career.
Published: 2020

16. Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Author: Sorin Hostiuc, Shaun Wen Huey Lee, Jorge R. Ledesma, Carsten Flohr, Masoumeh Sadeghi, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Behzad Karami Matin, Cyrus Alinia, Mehdi Bohluli, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Bernhard T. Baune, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Dinh-Toi Chu, Beatrix Haddock, Gianfranco Alicandro, Vasily Vlassov, Mohammad Taghi Khodayari, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Fereshteh Ansari, Michael K. Hole, Azeem Majeed, Iman Halvaei, Saqib Ali, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Tomas Y. Yeheyis, John S. Ji, Martin McKee, Jamileh Shadid, Leonardo Roever, Peng Jia, Ettore Beghi, Pablo M. Lavados, Young Eun Kim, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Ahmad Daryani, Cathleen Keller, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Nicole K. DeCleene, Ebrahim Babaee, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Boris Bikbov, William M. Gardner, Lydia M. Haile, Luca Ronfani, Azalea M. Thomson, Irena Ilic, Ruth W. Kimokoti, Yingxi Zhao, Guoqing Hu, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Nathaniel J. Henry, Brijesh Sathian, Daniel Kim, Peter Memiah, Mohammad Hadi Abbasi, Andrea Farioli, Zahra Kamiab, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Matthew C. Doxey, Tommi Vasankari, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Luisa Sorio Flor, Priya Rathi, Shanshan Li, Tanvir M. Huda, Dillon O Sylte, Rosario Cárdenas, Agegnehu Bante, Helen Ippolito, Alyssa Acebedo, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Anwar Faraj, João Pedro Silva, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Pushpendra Kumar, Sangram Kishor Patel, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Holly E. Erskine, Eugene Sobngwi, Filippo Ariani, Shane D. Morrison, Mohammad Aghaali, Meghan D. Mooney, Vera Marisa Costa, Palash Chandra Banik, Rupak Desai, Ken Takahashi, Maigeng Zhou, Morteza Oladnabi, Bogdan Oancea, Daniela Ribeiro, Mohammad Farahmand, Irmina Maria Michalek, Yetunde O. John-Akinola, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Emilie R Maddison, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Damian G. Hoy, Hosni Salem, V. Prakash, Shuhei Nomura, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Anders Larsson, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Somayeh Bohlouli, Joana Morgado-da-Costa, Siamak Sabour, Theo Vos, Han Yong Wunrow, Khaled Khatab, Alireza Zangeneh, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Marissa B Reitsma, Hannah J. Henrikson, Randah R. Hamadeh, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Giuseppe Grosso, Ziyad Al-Aly, Taraneh Yousefinezhadi, Joseph L Ward, Roba Khundkar, Ricardo Santiago Gomez, Reza Malekzadeh, John J. McGrath, Sandra B. Munro, Shahin Soltani, Amy E. Peden, Rufus Akinyemi, Marcel Ausloos, Naohiro Yonemoto, Bogdan Wojtyniak, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Guilherme Borges, Sadia Bibi, Farhad Islami, Hamed Mirzaei, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, M. Ashworth Dirac, Hosna Janjani, Kairat Davletov, Hermann Brenner, Yuichiro Yano, Elissa M. Abrams, Ana Vukovic, Bartosz Miazgowski, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Jennifer O Lam, Mona Pathak, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Asadollah Gholamian, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Babak Eshrati, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Atte Meretoja, Lorenzo Monasta, Ronan A. Lyons, Neda Kianipour, Desalegn Getnet Demsie, Yasir Waheed, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Davide Sattin, Kevin S Ikuta, Ghobad Moradi, Srinivas Goli, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Mika Kivimäki, Christopher Troeger, Jordi Alonso, Alireza Ahmadi, Navid Manafi, Caroline Stein, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Jason Nguyen, Moses K. Muriithi, Aziz Rezapour, Ismael R. Campos-Nonato, Adrian Pana, H. Dean Hosgood, Noore Alam, James L. Fisher, Mariam Molokhia, Susan F. Rumisha, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Ayman Grada, Emma Nichols, Babak Asghari, André Luiz Sena Guimarães, Ferrán Catalá-López, Aletta E. Schutte, Fiona B. Bennitt, Maciej Banach, Antonio Biondi, Donal Bisanzio, Josip Car, Ronny Westerman, Shafiu Mohammed, Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam, Kenji Shibuya, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Milena Santric-Milicevic, Karen M. Tabb, Paula Moraga, Soheil Hassanipour, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Avina Vongpradith, Dara K. Mohammad, Ralph Maddison, Babak Moazen, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Rahman Shiri, Fernando Neves Hugo, Hmwe H Kyu, Zachary V Dingels, Florian Fischer, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Massimo Cirillo, Nikita Otstavnov, Robert C. Reiner, Van C. Lansingh, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez, Ashkan Afshin, Benjamin A Stark, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Natalie C. Galles, Behnam Heidari, Eun-Kee Park, Mohammad Ali Jahani, Suzanne Polinder, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Amir Radfar, Mowafa Househ, Derrick A Bennett, Gaorui Guo, Hesam Ghiasvand, Taweewat Wiangkham, Tamás Joó, Cristiana Abbafati, Kathryn Mei Ming Lau, Anita K. Nandi, Miklós Szócska, Manasi Kumar, Eduardo A. 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Gad, Assefa Desalew, Lidia Morawska, Davood Anvari, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Hadi Pourjafar, Abdu A. Adamu, Maryam Adabi, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Jessica A. Cruz, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Hasanzadeh, Jordan Weiss, Maryam Ghadimi, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Serge Resnikoff, Joanna L Whisnant, Kelly Compton, Priya Parmar, Sanjay Basu, Leila R Kalankesh, Nickolas Reinig, Ana Maria Mantilla Herrera, Fatemeh Rajati, Damian Santomauro, Mojisola Oluwasanu, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, David M. Pereira, Joht Singh Chandan, Deepak Kumar Pasupula, Aristidis Tsatsakis, Hoa Thi Do, Whitney L. Teagle, Hans W. Hoek, James Leigh, Morteza Arab-Zozani, Yasser Vasseghian, Stephanie R M Zimsen, Charlie Ashbaugh, Fariba Dorostkar, Abdelrahman Ibrahim Abushouk, Mikk Jürisson, Golnaz Heidari, Kala M. Mehta, Saeed Shahabi, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Hai Quang Pham, Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, Joshua A. Salomon, David C. Schwebel, Milena Ilic, Kareha M Agesa, Jost B. Jonas, Dian Kusuma, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Santosh Varughese, Yousef Mohammad, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Mihaela Hostiuc, Richard G. Cowden, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Thomas Pilgrim, Alessandra C. Goulart, Leila Doshmangir, Gabriele Nagel, Saravanan Muthupandian, Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani, Maryam Mirzaei, Zabihollah Yousefi, Shadrach Wilson, Iman El Sayed, Juanita A. Haagsma, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Eirini Skiadaresi, Reza Shirkoohi, Tim Driscoll, Morteza Jafarinia, Maha El Tantawi, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek, Abdilahi Yousuf Yousuf, Dickson A. Amugsi, Awoke Misganaw, Maseer Khan, Norito Kawakami, Jingkai Wei, Jai K Das, Vishnu Renjith, Tessa M. Pilz, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Islam Y. Elgendy, Prateek Rastogi, Lauren B. Wilner, Josep Maria Haro, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Ben Lacey, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Sam Rolfe, Iffat Elbarazi, Yannick Béjot, Raimundas Lunevicius, Sezer Kisa, Harish Chander Gugnani, Basema Saddik, Manu Raj Mathur, Mansour Ghafourifard, Riaz Uddin, Anna Poznańska, Faris Lami, Niguse Meles Alema, Michael T. Chung, Arya Aminorroaya, Arash Sarveazad, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, João M. Furtado, Hamid Ahmadieh, Sara Conti, Yunquan Zhang, Manthan D Janodia, Aislyn U. Orji, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Jalal Arabloo, Gabrielle B. Britton, Colm McAlinden, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Simona Cătălina Ştefan, Ester Cerin, Nuno Taveira, Lars Jacob Stovner, Amir Taherkhani, Masoud Foroutan, Tomasz Miazgowski, Amir Manafi, Yeshambel T. Nigatu, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Mithila Faruque, Alan D. Lopez, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Graeme J. Hankey, Mojgan Gitimoghaddam, Chantal Huynh, G Anil Kumar, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Abbas Sheikhtaheri, Turki Alanzi, Simon Øverland, David Laith Rawaf, Brian J. Hall, Edward J Mills, Ali Kabir, Ravi Prakash Jha, Akbar Barzegar, Simin Mouodi, Alize J. Ferrari, Chirag P. Doshi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Mohsen Naghavi, Mohammad Hassan Emamian, Amir Jalali, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie, Maarten J. Postma, David Edvardsson, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Catherine M. Antony, Hannah Han, Ken Lee Chin, Getinet Ayano, Kewal Krishan, Maryam Zamanian, Farshad Farzadfar, Ali A. Asadi-Pooya, Daniel Diaz, Oliver J. Brady, Mohsen Bayati, Christopher M Odell, Jalil Jaafari, Walter Mendoza, Susanna Dunachie, Raffaele Palladino, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Alessandra Lugo, Reshmi Bhageerathy, Paulo A. Lotufo, Maia Kereselidze, Salman Rawaf, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Mousa Yaminfirooz, Neeraj Bedi, Mahesh P A, Harvey Whiteford, Gina Agarwal, Pallab K. Maulik, Ranjitha S Shetty, Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki, Prasanna Mithra, Binyam Minuye Birihane, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Tomislav Mestrovic, Razique Anwer, Marcello Tonelli, Hanne Christensen, Juan Jesus Carrero, Ali H. Mokdad, Alberto Ortiz, Samad Azari, Ted R. Miller, Rebecca Ivers, Stephen R. Robinson, Saeid Safiri, Masood Ali Shaikh, Rajesh Sagar, Kelly Cercy, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, João Vasco Santos, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Sarah Lewington, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Savita Lasrado, Abdul Moiz Hafiz, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Praveen Hoogar, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Peng Zheng, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Paul H. Lee, Cameron J. Kneib, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Harrison Chase Gottlich, Andrew M. Briggs, Alibek Mereke, Om P Kurmi, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Shahram Saeidi, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie, Aminu K. 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Valdez, Jennifer Rickard, Daniel Youngwhan Cho, Ashish Pathak, Angel Paternina-Caicedo, Mehdi Ahmadi, Zichen Liu, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Diego De Leo, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Getenet Dessie, Zhi Jiang Zhang, Christopher S. Crowe, Farhad Ghamari, Behshad Naghshtabrizi, Francesco Saverio Violante, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Ramesh Holla, Kate E. LeGrand, Christian Kieling, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Shivanthi Balalla, Molly H Biehl, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Mina Anjomshoa, Abdel Douiri, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Rade Vukovic, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Michael R. Phillips, Yafeng Wang, Sachin R Atre, Miriam Levi, Zelalem Nigussie Azene, Kevan R. Polkinghorne, Deepak Paudel, Hung Chun Liu, Zainab Samad, Robert P. Dellavalle, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Juan Sanabria, Mohammad Fareed, Enrico Rubagotti, Samantha Leigh Larson, Anurag Agrawal, Shai Linn, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Janni Leung, Shokofeh Maleki, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Michael Kravchenko, Mohd Anisul Karim, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Jacob L. 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L., Department of Public Health, Clinicum, Department of Neurosciences, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Environmental Sciences, Public Health, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Sálfræðideild (HR), Department of Psychology (RU), Samfélagssvið (HR), School of Social Sciences (RU), Háskólinn í Reykjavík, Reykjavik University, GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborator, Violante FS, Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, and UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL
Subjects: Male, Life expectancy, Disability-Adjusted Life Year, Diseases, Disease, communicable disease, systematic analysis, Global Burden of Disease, 0302 clinical medicine, 80 and over, Medicine, 10. No inequality, Child, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, injuries, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, Sjúkdómar, DEMENTIA, FALLS, General Medicine, Forvarnir, 3. Good health, Child, Preschool, Human, GBD, Population health, 03 medical and health sciences, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Humans, Global Burden of Disease Study, education, Aged, Spatial Analysis, Global burden, Disability, Prevention, DISABILITY, Infant, Spatial Analysi, Mortality rate, Global Burden of Disease, Diseases, Injuries, Systematic analysis, PREVENTION, Years of potential life lost, Risk factors, Disease study, ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE, RISK-FACTORS, Clinical Medicine, RA, Demography, Fötlun, Dánartíðni, Áhættuþættir, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Risk Factors, Cause of Death, Global health, 030212 general & internal medicine, 1. No poverty, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Middle Aged, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, Adolescent, Adult, Age Distribution, Female, Infant, Newborn, Young Adult, Lýðheilsa, CLINICAL-TRIALS, Population, Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica, diseases, ITC-HYBRID, Heilbrigðisvísindi, General & Internal Medicine, Mortality, Preschool, Disease burden, business.industry, Risk Factor, Klinisk medicin, Newborn, purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#3.02.00 [https], Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, Áverkar, Systematic analysis, NA, business
Abstract: Publisher's version (útgefin grein), Background In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd., Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; the University of Melbourne; Queensland Department of Health, Australia; the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; Public Health England; the Norwegian Institute of Public Health; St Jude Children's Research Hospital; the Cardiovascular Medical Research and Education Fund; the National Institute on Ageing of the National Institutes of Health (award P30AG047845); and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health (award R01MH110163). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the funders. The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this Article and they do not necessarily represent the views, decisions, or policies of the institutions with which they are affiliated, the National Health Service (NHS), the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the UK Department of Health and Social Care, or Public Health England; the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the US Government, or MEASURE Evaluation; or the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). This research used data from the Chile National Health Survey 2003, 2009-10, and 2016-17. The authors are grateful to the Ministry of Health, the survey copyright owner, for allowing them to have the database. All results of the study are those of the authors and in no way committed to the Ministry. The Costa Rican Longevity and Healthy Aging Study project is a longitudinal study by the University of Costa Rica's Centro Centroamericano de Poblacion and Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud, in collaboration with the University of California at Berkeley. The original pre-1945 cohort was funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant 072406), and the 1945-55 Retirement Cohort was funded by the US National Institute on Aging (grant R01AG031716). The principal investigators are Luis Rosero-Bixby and William H Dow and co-principal investigators are Xinia Fernandez and Gilbert Brenes. The accuracy of the authors' statistical analysis and the findings they report are not the responsibility of ECDC. ECDC is not responsible for conclusions or opinions drawn from the data provided. ECDC is not responsible for the correctness of the data and for data management, data merging and data collation after provision of the data. ECDC shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data. The Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) study is an international study carried out in collaboration with WHO/EURO. The international coordinator of the 1997-98, 2001-02, 2005-06, and 2009-10 surveys was Candace Currie and the databank manager for the 1997-98 survey was Bente Wold, whereas for the following surveys Oddrun Samdal was the databank manager. A list of principal investigators in each country can be found on the HBSC website. Data used in this paper come from the 2009-10 Ghana Socioeconomic Panel Study Survey, which is a nationally representative survey of more than 5000 households in Ghana. The survey is a joint effort undertaken by the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) at the University of Ghana and the Economic Growth Centre (EGC) at Yale University. It was funded by EGC. ISSER and the EGC are not responsible for the estimations reported by the analysts. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law, 2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Data for this research was provided by MEASURE Evaluation, funded by USAID. The authors thank the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO Demoscope together with Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology, Russia Academy of Sciences for making data available. This paper uses data from the Bhutan 2014 STEPS survey, implemented by the Ministry of Health with the support of WHO; the Kuwait 2006 and 2014 STEPS surveys, implemented by the Ministry of Health with the support of WHO; the Libya 2009 STEPS survey, implemented by the Secretariat of Health and Environment with the support of WHO; the Malawi 2009 STEPS survey, implemented by Ministry of Health with the support of WHO; and the Moldova 2013 STEPS survey, implemented by the Ministry of Health, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the National Center of Public Health with the support of WHO. This paper uses data from Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) Waves 1 (DOI:10.6103/SHARE. w1.700), 2 (10.6103/SHARE.w2.700), 3 (10.6103/SHARE.w3.700), 4 (10.6103/SHARE.w4.700), 5 (10.6103/SHARE.w5.700), 6 (10.6103/SHARE.w6.700), and 7 (10.6103/SHARE.w7.700); see Borsch-Supan and colleagues (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 (QLK6-CT-2001-00360), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006-062193, COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005-028857, SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006-028812), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N degrees 211909, SHARE-LEAP: GA N degrees 227822, SHARE M4: GA N degrees 261982) and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N degrees 676536, SERISS: GA N degrees 654221) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research, the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science, the US National Institute on Aging (U01_AG09740-13S2, P01_AG005842, P01_AG08291, P30_AG12815, R21_AG025169, Y1-AG-4553-01, IAG_BSR06-11, OGHA_04-064, HHSN271201300071C), and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged. This study has been realised using the data collected by the Swiss Household Panel, which is based at the Swiss Centre of Expertise in the Social Sciences. The project is financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The United States Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study is a supplement to the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which is sponsored by the National Institute of Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740). It was conducted jointly by Duke University and the University of Michigan. The HRS is sponsored by the National Institute on Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740) and is conducted by the University of Michigan. This paper uses data from Add Health, a program project designed by J Richard Udry, Peter S Bearman, and Kathleen Mullan Harris, and funded by a grant P01-HD31921 from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, with cooperative funding from 17 other agencies. Special acknowledgment is due to Ronald R Rindfuss and Barbara Entwisle for assistance in the original design. Information on how to obtain the Add Health data files is available on the Add Health website. No direct support was received from grant P01-HD31921 for this analysis. The data reported here have been supplied by the United States Renal Data System. The interpretation and reporting of these data are the responsibility of the authors and in no way should be seen as an official policy or interpretation of the US Government. Collection of data for the Mozambique National Survey on the Causes of Death 2007-08 was made possible by USAID under the terms of cooperative agreement GPO-A-00-08-000_D3-00. This manuscript is based on data collected and shared by the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) from an original study IVI conducted. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior (Brazil; finance code 001) and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnologico (CNPq, a Brazilian funding agency). I N Ackerman was supported by a Victorian Health and Medical Research Fellowship awarded by the Victorian Government. O O Adetokunboh acknowledges the South African Department of Science and Innovation and the National Research Foundation. A Agrawal acknowledges the Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance Senior Fellowship. S M Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. A Badawi is supported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. D A Bennett was supported by the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. R Bourne acknowledges the Brien Holden Vision Institute, University of Heidelberg, Sightsavers, Fred Hollows Foundation, and Thea Foundation. G B Britton and I Moreno Velasquez were supported by the Sistema Nacional de Investigacion, SNI-SENACYT, Panama. R Buchbinder was supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Senior Principal Research Fellowship. J J Carrero was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2019-01059). F Carvalho acknowledges UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 support with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. A R Chang was supported by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases grant K23 DK106515. V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia, IP, under the Norma Transitaria DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. A Douiri acknowledges support and funding from the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South London at King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and the Royal College of Physicians, and support from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. B B Duncan acknowledges grants from the Foundation for the Support of Research of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (IATS and PrInt) and the Brazilian Ministry of Health. H E Erskine is the recipient of an Australian NHMRC Early Career Fellowship grant (APP1137969). A J Ferrari was supported by a NHMRC Early Career Fellowship grant (APP1121516). H E Erskine and A J Ferrari are employed by and A M Mantilla-Herrera and D F Santomauro affiliated with the Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, which receives core funding from the Queensland Department of Health. M L Ferreira holds an NHMRC Research Fellowship. C Flohr was supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. M Freitas acknowledges financial support from the EU (European Regional Development Fund [FEDER] funds through COMPETE POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029248) and National Funds (Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) through project PTDC/NAN-MAT/29248/2017. A L S Guimaraes acknowledges support from CNPq. C Herteliu was partially supported by a grant co-funded by FEDER through Operational Competitiveness Program (project ID P_40_382). P Hoogar acknowledges Centre for Bio Cultural Studies, Directorate of Research, Manipal Academy of Higher Education and Centre for Holistic Development and Research, Kalaghatagi. F N Hugo acknowledges the Visiting Professorship, PRINT Program, CAPES Foundation, Brazil. B-F Hwang was supported by China Medical University (CMU107-Z-04), Taichung, Taiwan. S M S Islam was funded by a National Heart Foundation Senior Research Fellowship and supported by Deakin University. R Q Ivers was supported by a research fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. M Jakovljevic acknowledges the Serbian part of this GBD-related contribution was co-funded through Grant OI175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. P Jeemon was supported by a Clinical and Public Health intermediate fellowship (grant number IA/CPHI/14/1/501497) from the Wellcome Trust-Department of Biotechnology, India Alliance (2015-20). O John is a recipient of UIPA scholarship from University of New South Wales, Sydney. S V Katikireddi acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/13, MC_UU_12017/15), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13, SPHSU15). C Kieling is a CNPq researcher and a UK Academy of Medical Sciences Newton Advanced Fellow. Y J Kim was supported by Research Management Office, Xiamen University Malaysia (XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/00010). K Krishan is supported by UGC Centre of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar was supported by K43 TW 010716 FIC/NIMH. B Lacey acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. J V Lazarus was supported by a Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities Miguel Servet grant (Instituto de Salud Carlos III [ISCIII]/ESF, the EU [CP18/00074]). K J Looker thanks the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol, in partnership with Public Health England, for research support. S Lorkowski was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (nutriCARD, grant agreement number 01EA1808A). R A Lyons is supported by Health Data Research UK (HDR-9006), which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, NIHR (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome Trust. J J McGrath is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship), and the Queensland Health Department (via West Moreton HHS). P T N Memiah acknowledges support from CODESRIA. U O Mueller gratefully acknowledges funding by the German National Cohort Study BMBF grant number 01ER1801D. S Nomura acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (18K10082). A Ortiz was supported by ISCIII PI19/00815, DTS18/00032, ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009 Fondos FEDER, FRIAT, Comunidad de Madrid B2017/BMD-3686 CIFRA2-CM. These funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. S B Patten was supported by the Cuthbertson & Fischer Chair in Pediatric Mental Health at the University of Calgary. G C Patton was supported by an aNHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellowship. M R Phillips was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, number 81371502 and 81761128031). A Raggi, D Sattin, and S Schiavolin were supported by grants from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C Besta, Linea 4-Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche). P Rathi and B Unnikrishnan acknowledge Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. A L P Ribeiro was supported by Brazilian National Research Council, CNPq, and the Minas Gerais State Research Agency, FAPEMIG. D C Ribeiro was supported by The Sir Charles Hercus Health Research Fellowship (#18/111) Health Research Council of New Zealand. D Ribeiro acknowledges financial support from the EU (FEDER funds through the Operational Competitiveness Program; POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029253). P S Sachdev acknowledges funding from the NHMRC of Australia Program Grant. A M Samy was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). R Sarmiento-Suarez received institutional support from Applied and Environmental Sciences University (Bogota, Colombia) and ISCIII (Madrid, Spain). A E Schutte received support from the South African National Research Foundation SARChI Initiative (GUN 86895) and Medical Research Council. S T S Skou is currently funded by a grant from Region Zealand (Exercise First) and a grant from the European Research Council under the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement number 801790). J B Soriano is funded by Centro de Investigacion en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, ISCIII. R Tabares-Seisdedos was supported in part by the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII-FEDER. N Taveira was partially supported by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, the EU (LIFE project, reference RIA2016MC-1615). S Tyrovolas was supported by the Foundation for Education and European Culture, the Sara Borrell postdoctoral programme (reference number CD15/00019 from ISCIII-FEDER). S B Zaman received a scholarship from the Australian Government research training programme in support of his academic career., "Peer Reviewed"
Published: 2020

17. Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Author: Fereshteh Ansari, Richard C. Franklin, Naznin Hossain, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Mahdi Bohluli, Irena Ilic, Anwar Faraj, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Sanni Yaya, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Ehsan Sadeghi, Bach Xuan Tran, Leila Zaki, Mohammad Miri, Maha El Tantawi, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Kira A Barbre, Chigozie Jesse Uneke, Mehdi Naderi, Behzad Karami Matin, Yunquan Zhang, Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Zahid A Butt, Nuruzzaman Khan, Robert L. Thompson, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Rovshan Khalilov, Usman Iqbal, K M Shivakumar, Leili Tapak, Chris A Schmidt, Priya Rathi, Shanshan Li, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Chuanhua Yu, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Davood Anvari, Hoa Thi Do, Abdullah Al Mamun, Obinna Onwujekwe, Serge Resnikoff, Majid Fasihi Harandi, Joshua C. P. Osborne, Farahnaz Joukar, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Rohollah Kalhor, Turki Alanzi, Katie M Donkers, Amir Kasaeian, Eirini Skiadaresi, Aleksandra Barac, Simon I. Hay, Paul S. F. Yip, Tomislav Mestrovic, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Katherine Gass, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Gurudatta Naik, Joshua Longbottom, Somayeh Bohlouli, Aziz Rezapour, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Ahmed Omar Bali, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Paul H. Lee, Vahid Alipour, Kebede Deribe, Megan F. Schipp, Ziyad Al-Aly, Biagio Simonetti, Masoud Moradi, Jalal Arabloo, Reza Rawassizadeh, Saif Ullah, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Abedin Saghafipour, Fakher Rahim, Tinuke O Olagunju, Kimberly B. Johnson, Souranshu Chatterjee, Salvatore Rubino, Nataliya Foigt, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Taras Kavetskyy, Carlo La Vecchia, Eduarda Fernandes, Mohsen Mazidi, Claudiu Herteliu, Sojib Bin Zaman, Aziz Sheikh, Yong Yu, David Laith Rawaf, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Natalie V S Vinkeles Melchers, Samath D Dharmaratne, Enrico Rubagotti, Fahad Alanezi, Masood Ali Shaikh, Masoud Foroutan, B. Suresh Kumar Shetty, Milena Ilic, Melese Abate Reta, Dian Kusuma, Ali Manafi, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Giovanni Damiani, Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Van C. Lansingh, Till Bärnighausen, Benjamin F. Arnold, Natalie Maria Cormier, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ahmad Daryani, Ali Bijani, Jae Il Shin, Samer Hamidi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Mohsen Bayati, Tomohide Yamada, Zubair Kabir, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Jonathan F. Mosser, Gbenga A. Kayode, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Shahin Soltani, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Salah Eddin Karimi, Alan J Thomson, Daniel Diaz, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Oliver J. Brady, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Yousef Fatahi, Sadia Bibi, Bogdan Oancea, Masoud Moghadaszadeh, Kelemu Tilahun Kibret, Valery L. Feigin, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Ted R. Miller, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Atif Amin Baig, Maryam Zamanian, Kate E. LeGrand, Salahuddin Mohammed, Yuming Guo, Irfan Ullah, Hebat Allah Salah A. Yousof, Mowafa Househ, Ionut Negoi, Naohiro Yonemoto, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Hadi Pourjafar, Navid Manafi, Neda Kianipour, Abraham Getachew Kelbore, Victor Adekanmbi, Seid Tiku Mereta, Olalekan A. Uthman, Arash Ziapour, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Francesco Saverio Violante, Monika Sawhney, Paula Moraga, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, María-Gloria Basáñez, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Mona M. Khater, Andrew T Olagunju, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Davide Guido, Kiomars Sharafi, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Tarig B. Higazi, Afshin Maleki, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Thomas R. Unnasch, Mohsen Afarideh, Takahiro Tabuchi, Shreya Shirude, Marcel Ausloos, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Amira Shaheen, Shafiu Mohammed, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Eugenio Traini, Leila R Kalankesh, Kris J. Krohn, Colm McAlinden, Walter Mendoza, Maryam Keramati, Ravi Prakash Jha, David M. Pigott, Elex Hill, Abdallah M. Samy, Farah Daoud, Wanji, Samuel, Public Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council (Reino Unido), Department for International Development (Reino Unido), Unión Europea, Cromwell E.A., Osborne J.C.P., Unnasch T.R., Basanez M., Gass K.M., Barbre K.A., Hill E., Johnson K.B., Donkers K.M., Shirude S., Schmidt C.A., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Afarideh M., Ahmadpour E., Beshir Ahmed M., Yihunie Akalu T., Al-Aly Z., Alanezi F.M., Alanzi T.M., Alipour V., Andrei C.L., Ansari F., Ansha M.G., Anvari D., Yaw Appiah S.C., Arabloo J., Arnold B.F., Ausloos M., Ayanore M.A., Amin Baig A., Banach M., Barac A., Barnighausen T.W., Bayati M., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bibi S., Bijani A., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Butt Z.A., Carvalho F., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chattu S.K., Cormier N.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Daoud F., Darwesh A.M., Daryani A., Deribe K., Dharmaratne S.D., Diaz D., Do H.T., El Sayed Zak M., El Tantawi M., Elemineh D.A., Faraj A., Harandi M.F., Fatahi Y., Feigin V.L., Fernandes E., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Franklin R.C., Mohialdeen Gubari M.I., Guido D., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Abdullah K.H., Hamidi S., Herteliu C., De Hidru H.D., Higazi T.B., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Ilic I.M., Iqbal U., Naghibi Irvani S.S., Jha R.P., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir Z., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaeian A., Kavetskyy T., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Kelbore A.G., Keramati M., Khalilov R., Khan E.A., Nuruzzaman Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater M.M., Kianipour N., Kibret K.T., Kim Y.J., Kosen S., Krohn K.J., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lansingh Van C., Lee P.H., Legrand K.E., Li S., Longbottom J., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Maleki A., Mamun A.A., Manafi A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Mazidi M., McAlinden C., Meharie B.G., Mendoza W., Mengesha E.W., Mengistu D.T., Mereta S.T., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Miri M., Moghadaszadeh M., Hafshejani A.M., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Negoi I., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen T.H., Nikbakhsh R., Oancea B., Olagunju T.O., Olagunju A.T., Bali A.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Pana A., Pourjafar H., Rahim F., Ur Rahman M.H., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawassizadeh R., Resnikoff S., Reta M.A., Rezapour A., Rubagotti E., Rubino S., Sadeghi E., Saghafipour A., Sajadi S.M., Samy A.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sawhney M., Schipp M.F., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sheikh A., Kumar Shetty B.S., Shin J.I., Shivakumar K.M., Simonetti B., Singh J.A., Skiadaresi E., Soheili A., Soltani S., Spurlock E.E., Sufiyan M.B., Tabuchi T., Tapak L., Thompson R.L., Thomson A.J., Traini E., Tran B.X., Ullah I., Ullah S., Uneke C.J., Unnikrishnan B., Uthman O.A., Melchers N.V.S.V., Violante F.S., Wolde H.F., Wonde T.E., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yazdi Feyzabadi V., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yousof H.-A.S.A., Yu C., Yu Y., Yusefzadeh H., Zaki L., Zaman S.B., Zamanian M., Zhang Z.-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Pigott D.M., and Cuidado de la Salud y Desarrollo Sostenible
Subjects: Oncocercosis, Decision Analysis, RC955-962, Onchocerciasis, law.invention, Geographical Locations, Medical Conditions, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Medicine and Health Sciences, 030212 general & internal medicine, Onchocerca, 11 Medical and Health Sciences, Data Management, biology, Pharmaceutics, wc_695, Enfermedades Parasitarias, Onchocerciasi, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Geography, Transmission (mechanics), Helminth Infections, Engineering and Technology, Mass Drug Administration, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Management Engineering, Cartography, Human, Research Article, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Computer and Information Sciences, Drug Administration, 030231 tropical medicine, Decision tree, wa_395, Dermatology, wc_765, Environment, wc_885, Research and Analysis Methods, Skin Diseases, 03 medical and health sciences, Drug Therapy, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, Diagnostic Medicine, Tropical Medicine, Parasitic Diseases, medicine, Humans, Disease Eradication, Spatial analysis, Ivermectin, Data collection, Receiver operating characteristic, Data Visualization, Decision Trees, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 06 Biological Sciences, Elimination planning, Africa, Implementation units, Public health, Tropical Diseases, medicine.disease, biology.organism_classification, Health Care, ROC Curve, People and Places, Health Statistics, Morbidity, Scale (map), Forecasting
Abstract: Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify., Author summary As of 2018, it was unknown if onchocerciasis transmission occurred among approximately 2 400 implementation units (IUs; typically, second administrative-level units, such as districts) considered potentially endemic. These IUs have either never been surveyed for onchocerciasis or historical data are not sufficient to define contemporary endemicity status. Given the large number of IUs for which baseline data collection is likely required to achieve continental elimination, there is a need to prioritise areas for surveys to ensure that those suitable for endemic transmission, and therefore potentially eligible for mass drug administration, are able to initiate interventions as soon as possible. We used boosted regression trees to predict environmental suitability for onchocerciasis, with corresponding measures of uncertainty. We summarized the fine scale spatial predictions at the IU level by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify a threshold that maximized agreement with the occurrence locations to identify IUs that may warrant prioritisation for mapping surveys. This analysis suggests that approximately half of the IUs considered for surveys could be classified as environmentally suitable for onchocerciasis. In order to develop an elimination strategy, many national onchocerciasis elimination programmes (NOEPs) need a mechanism to synthesise historical data to define priority areas for surveys.
Published: 2021

18. Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Author: Awoke Misganaw, Mesfin Sileshi, Jeffrey D. Stanaway, Kebede Deribe, Azmeraw T. Amare, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Nebiyu Negussu, Amare Deribew, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Teshome Gebre, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Abate Mulugeta, Birhan Mengistu, Belete Mengistu, Tariku Dejene, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Alemayehu Amberbir, Oumer Shafi, Zerihun Tadesse, Asrat Hailu, Semaw Ferede Abera, Scott D Glenn, Biruck Kebede, Deribew, Amare, Dejene, Tariku, Kebede, Biruck, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn, and Stanaway, Jeffrey D
Subjects: Adult, Male, Gerontology, medicine.medical_specialty, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Adolescent, lcsh:RC955-962, 030231 tropical medicine, malaria, Global Burden of Disease, lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Risk Factors, parasitic diseases, Prevalence, medicine, Humans, lcsh:RC109-216, 030212 general & internal medicine, Mortality, Child, Disease burden, Aged, Cause of death, Aged, 80 and over, business.industry, Research, Incidence, Public health, Incidence (epidemiology), Mortality rate, Infant, Newborn, Infant, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Verbal autopsy, Malaria, Infectious Diseases, mortality rates, Child, Preschool, Tropical medicine, Female, Parasitology, Ethiopia, business, Demography
Abstract: Background: In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years.\ud \ud Methods: GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy (VA) surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling (CODEm).\ud \ud Results: The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.4-4.5million) in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI: 462,230-797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323.9 deaths (95% UI: 11,533.3-61,215.3) in 1990 and 1,561.7 deaths (95% UI: 752.8-2,660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change (ARC) of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI: 0.76-4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI: 0.12-0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period.\ud \ud Conclusions: Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
Published: 2017

19. Role of male partner involvement in ART retention and adherence in Malawi’s Option B+ program

Author: Austin Wesevich, Tiwonge Mtande, Irving F. Hoffman, Mina C. Hosseinipour, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Nora E. Rosenberg, Hannock Tweya, Friday Saidi, and William C. Miller
Subjects: Adult, Counseling, Male, 0301 basic medicine, Malawi, Health (social science), Social Psychology, Anti-HIV Agents, HIV Infections, Disclosure, Article, Medication Adherence, law.invention, Cohort Studies, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Randomized controlled trial, Pregnancy, law, Odds Ratio, Humans, Mass Screening, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, Mass screening, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Odds ratio, Patient Acceptance of Health Care, 030112 virology, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, Confidence interval, Logistic Models, Sexual Partners, Relative risk, Pill, Cohort, Female, business, Demography, Cohort study, Clinical psychology
Abstract: Malawi's Option B+ program provides all HIV-infected pregnant women free lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART), but challenges remain regarding retention and ART adherence, potentially due to male partner barriers. We explored relationships between male partner involvement and Option B+ retention and adherence. In 2014, a randomized controlled trial in Malawi compared male recruitment strategies for couple HIV testing and counseling (cHTC) at an antenatal clinic. This secondary analysis was conducted among the entire cohort (N = 200) of women, irrespective of randomization status. We assessed whether cHTC attendance, early disclosure of HIV-positive status, and partner ART reminders were associated with retention and adherence at one month after starting treatment. Retention was defined as attending HIV clinic follow-up within one day of running out of pills. Adherence was defined as taking ≥95% of ARTs by pill count. We used binomial regression to calculate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Median female age was 26 years. Most women (79%) were retained; of these, 68% were adherent. Receiving cHTC was associated with improved retention (aRR 1.33, 95% CI 1.12, 1.59). Receiving male partner ART reminders was weakly associated with retention (aRR 1.16, 95% CI 0.96, 1.39). Disclosure within one day was not associated with retention (aRR 1.08, 95% CI: 0.91, 1.28). Among those who were retained, these three behaviors were not associated with improved 95% adherence. CHTC could play an important role in improving Option B+ retention. Increasing cHTC participation and enhancing adherence-related messages within cHTC are important.
Published: 2017

20. Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000–2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study

Author: Daniel C Casey, Robert C. Reiner, William C. Gagne-Maynard, Freya M Shearer, Peter W. Gething, Daniel J. Weiss, Roy Burstein, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Aniruddha Deshpande, Nancy Fullman, Christopher J L Murray, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Lucas Earl, Nicholas Graetz, Stephen S Lim, Patrick Y Liu, Jonathan F. Mosser, Heidi J. Larson, Sarah E Ray, David M. Pigott, Samir Bhatt, Puja C Rao, Simon I. Hay, Rachel L Updike, and Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Subjects: Vaccination Coverage, Inequality, Somalia, media_common.quotation_subject, Childhood vaccination, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Health outcomes, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, 0302 clinical medicine, Cost of Illness, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Socioeconomics, Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine, media_common, Tetanus, Immunization Programs, Diphtheria, Vaccination, Rwanda, Infant, General Medicine, Models, Theoretical, medicine.disease, Morocco, Geography, Angola, Socioeconomic Factors, Action plan, Africa, Diphtheria-Pertussis-Tetanus Vaccine, Guinea, Immunization, Ethiopia, Geographical inequalities, Delivery of Health Care
Abstract: Summary Background Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. Methods This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 × 5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12–23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. Findings Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6–80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. Interpretation Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2019

21. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Author: Gregory A Roth, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Solomon M Abay, Cristiana Abbafati, Nooshin Abbasi, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Jemal Abdela, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Haftom Temesgen Abebe, Molla Abebe, Zegeye Abebe, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Semaw F Abera, Olifan Zewdie Abil, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Aklilu Roba Abrham, Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Mina G Adib, Amha Admasie, Ashkan Afshin, Gina Agarwal, Kareha M Agesa, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Sayem Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Nadia Akseer, Ziyad Al-Aly, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Fares Alahdab, Khurshid Alam, Tahiya Alam, Animut Alebel, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Reza Alizadeh-Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ala'a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Jordi Alonso, Khalid Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T Amare, Leopold N Aminde, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Nahla Hamed Anber, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Megbaru Debalkie Animut, Mina Anjomshoa, Hossein Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Olatunde Aremu, Johan Ärnlöv, Amit Arora, Monika Arora, Al Artaman, Krishna K Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw, Zerihun Ataro, Suleman Atique, Sachin R Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Euripide F G A Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Yohanes Ayele, Rakesh Ayer, Peter S Azzopardi, Arefeh Babazadeh, Umar Bacha, Hamid Badali, Alaa Badawi, Ayele Geleto Bali, Katherine E Ballesteros, Maciej Banach, Kajori Banerjee, Marlena S Bannick, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Miguel A Barboza, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Simon Barquera, Lope H Barrero, Quique Bassat, Sanjay Basu, Bernhard T Baune, Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Ezra Belay, Yihalem Abebe Belay, Michelle L Bell, Aminu K Bello, Derrick A Bennett, Isabela M Bensenor, Adam E Berman, Eduardo Bernabe, Robert S Bernstein, Gregory J Bertolacci, Mircea Beuran, Tina Beyranvand, Ashish Bhalla, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Molly H Biehl, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Ver Bilano, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Donal Bisanzio, Tuhin Biswas, Brigette F Blacker, Berrak Bora Basara, Rohan Borschmann, Cristina Bosetti, Kayvan Bozorgmehr, Oliver J Brady, Luisa C Brant, Carol Brayne, Alexandra Brazinova, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Paul Svitil Briant, Gabrielle Britton, Traolach Brugha, Reinhard Busse, Zahid A Butt, Charlton S K H Callender, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Giulia Carreras, Juan J Carrero, Austin Carter, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Chris D Castle, Clara Castro, Franz Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Yazan Chaiah, Jung-Chen Chang, Fiona J Charlson, Pankaj Chaturvedi, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Odgerel Chimed-Ochir, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Rajiv Chowdhury, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam J Christopher, Sheng-Chia Chung, Flavia M Cicuttini, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Cirillo, Aaron J Cohen, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Monica Cortinovis, Ewerton Cousin, Benjamin C Cowie, Michael H Criqui, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Christopher Stephen Crowe, John A Crump, Matthew Cunningham, Alemneh Kabeta Daba, Abel Fekadu Dadi, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Paul I Dargan, Ahmad Daryani, Siddharth K Das, Rajat Das Gupta, José Das Neves, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Aditya Prasad Dash, Adrian C Davis, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragos Virgil Davitoiu, Kairat Davletov, Fernando Pio De La Hoz, Jan-Walter De Neve, Meaza Girma Degefa, Louisa Degenhardt, Tizta T Degfie, Selina Deiparine, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Balem Betsu Demtsu, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Don C Des Jarlais, Getenet Ayalew Dessie, Subhojit Dey, Samath D Dharmaratne, Daniel Dicker, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, Eric L Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Shirin Djalalinia, Klara Dokova, David Teye Doku, Christl A Donnelly, E Ray Dorsey, Pratik P Doshi, Dirk Douwes-Schultz, Kerrie E Doyle, Tim R Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, Bruce B Duncan, Andre R Duraes, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Soheil Ebrahimpour, Dumessa Edessa, David Edvardsson, Anne Elise Eggen, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Ziad El-Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Matthias Endres, Aman Yesuf Endries, Benjamin Er, Holly E Erskine, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Reza Esmaeili, Alireza Esteghamati, Mahdi Fakhar, Hamed Fakhim, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Mohammad Fareed, Farzaneh Farhadi, Carla Sofia E sá Farinha, Andre Faro, Maryam S Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Valery L Feigin, Andrea B Feigl, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Joao C Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Florian Fischer, Christina Fitzmaurice, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Carla Fornari, Tahvi D Frank, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Nancy Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M Furtado, Neal D Futran, Silvano Gallus, Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro, Miguel A Garcia-Gordillo, William M Gardner, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin, Bereket Gebremichael, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Tilayie Feto Gelano, Johanna M Geleijnse, Ricard Genova-Maleras, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Peter W Gething, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami, Reza Ghadimi, Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani, Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman, Mamata Ghimire, Katherine B Gibney, Paramjit Singh Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi, Maurice Giroud, Giorgia Giussani, Shifalika Goenka, Ellen M Goldberg, Srinivas Goli, Hector Gómez-Dantés, Philimon N Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Taren M Gorman, Atsushi Goto, Alessandra C Goulart, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Ayman Grada, Giuseppe Grosso, Harish Chander Gugnani, Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes, Yuming Guo, Prakash C Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Reyna Alma Gutiérrez, Bishal Gyawali, Juanita A Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J Hankey, Hilda L Harb, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan, Josep Maria Haro, Mehedi Hasan, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J Hay, Simon I Hay, Yihua He, Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Mohsen Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Pouria Heydarpour, Sousan Heydarpour, Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu, Hans W Hoek, Michael K Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Praveen Hoogar, H Dean Hosgood, Seyed Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Peter J Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Thomas Hsiao, Guoqing Hu, John J Huang, Abdullatif Husseini, Mohammedaman Mama Hussen, Susan Hutfless, Bulat Idrisov, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Nazrul Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Farhad Islami, Kathryn H Jacobsen, Leila Jahangiry, Nader Jahanmehr, Sudhir Kumar Jain, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Moti Tolera Jalu, Spencer L James, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Kathy J Jenkins, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, Catherine O Johnson, Sarah C Johnson, Jost B Jonas, Ankur Joshi, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Suresh Banayya Jungari, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Rizwan Kalani, Manoochehr Karami, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Corine Karema, Hamidreza Karimi-Sari, Amir Kasaeian, Dessalegn H Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Tesfaye Dessale Kassa, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Zhila Kazemi, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Dhruv Satish Kazi, Adane Teshome Kefale, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Grant Rodgers Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Saleh Khader, Behzad Khafaei, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Alireza Khajavi, Nauman Khalid, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Muhammad Ali Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Mona M Khater, Abdullah T Khoja, Ardeshir Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Aliasghar A Kiadaliri, Getiye D Kibret, Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam, Daniel N Kiirithio, Daniel Kim, Young-Eun Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Adnan Kisa, Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen, Jonathan M Kocarnik, Sonali Kochhar, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Tufa Kolola, Jacek A Kopec, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael A Kravchenko, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Michael J Kutz, Igor Kuzin, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Deepesh P Lad, Sheetal D Lad, Alessandra Lafranconi, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka, Jennifer O Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Van C Lansingh, Sonia Lansky, Heidi J Larson, Arman Latifi, Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H Lee, James Leigh, Mostafa Leili, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Shanshan Li, Yichong Li, Juan Liang, Lee-Ling Lim, Stephen S Lim, Miteku Andualem Limenih, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Chris Lonsdale, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Raimundas Lunevicius, Stefan Ma, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Mark T Mackay, Jennifer H MacLachlan, Emilie R Maddison, Fabiana Madotto, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Dhaval P Maghavani, Marek Majdan, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Ana-Laura Manda, Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho, Helena Manguerra, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Dadi Marami, Joemer C Maravilla, Wagner Marcenes, Laurie Marczak, Ashley Marks, Guy B Marks, Gabriel Martinez, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Ira Martopullo, Winfried März, Melvin B Marzan, Joseph R Masci, Benjamin Ballard Massenburg, Manu Raj Mathur, Prashant Mathur, Richard Matzopoulos, Pallab K Maulik, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Brian J McMahon, Suresh Mehata, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M Mehta, Varshil Mehta, Tefera C Mekonnen, Addisu Melese, Mulugeta Melku, Peter T N Memiah, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, George A Mensah, Seid Tiku Mereta, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Anoushka I Millear, Ted R Miller, Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie, G K Mini, Parvaneh Mirabi, Mojde Mirarefin, Andreea Mirica, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Habtamu Mitiku, Babak Moazen, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Moslem Mohammadi, Noushin Mohammadifard, Mohammed A Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Viswanathan Mohan, Ali H Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Joana Morgado-Da-Costa, Shane Douglas Morrison, Marilita M Moschos, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Kindie Fentahun Muchie, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Satinath Mukhopadhyay, Kate Muller, John Everett Mumford, Jonah Musa, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Jean B Nachega, Gabriele Nagel, Aliya Naheed, Azin Nahvijou, Gurudatta Naik, Sanjeev Nair, Farid Najafi, Luigi Naldi, Hae Sung Nam, Vinay Nangia, Jobert Richie Nansseu, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Nahid Neamati, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Subas Neupane, Charles R J Newton, Frida N Ngalesoni, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Anh Quynh Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Ha Thu Nguyen, Huong Thanh Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Minh Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Emma Nichols, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Molly R Nixon, Nomonde Nolutshungu, Shuhei Nomura, Ole F Norheim, Mehdi Noroozi, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Hamid Reza Nouri, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Mohammad Reza Nowroozi, Peter S Nyasulu, Christopher M Odell, Richard Ofori-Asenso, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Pedro R Olivares, Helen Elizabeth Olsen, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Kanyin L Ong, Sok King Sk Ong, Eyal Oren, Heather M Orpana, Alberto Ortiz, Justin R Ortiz, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Simon Øverland, Mayowa Ojo Owolabi, Raziye Özdemir, Mahesh P A, Rosana Pacella, Smita Pakhale, Abhijit P Pakhare, Amir H Pakpour, Adrian Pana, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Jeyaraj Durai Pandian, Andrea Parisi, Eun-Kee Park, Charles D H Parry, Hadi Parsian, Shanti Patel, Sanghamitra Pati, George C Patton, Vishnupriya Rao Paturi, Katherine R Paulson, Alexandre Pereira, David M Pereira, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Michael R Phillips, Frédéric B Piel, David M Pigott, Julian David Pillay, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Farhad Pishgar, Suzanne Polinder, Maarten J Postma, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Ashwini Pujar, Swayam Prakash, Narayan Prasad, Caroline A Purcell, Mostafa Qorbani, Hedley Quintana, D Alex Quistberg, Kirankumar Waman Rade, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Kazem Rahimi, Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Sasa Rajsic, Usha Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Prabhat Ranjan, Puja C Rao, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Christian Razo-García, K Srinath Reddy, Robert C Reiner, Marissa B Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Andre M N Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Satar Rezaei, Shahab Rezaeian, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro, Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas, Kedir Teji Roba, Nicholas L S Roberts, Stephen R Robinson, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ali Rostami, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, Perminder S Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Ehsan Sadeghi, Hosein Safari, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Nasir Salam, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Raphael De Freitas Saldanha, Zikria Saleem, Yahya Salimi, Sundeep Santosh Salvi, Inbal Salz, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño, Damian Francesco Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, João Vasco Santos, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Arundhati R Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Mehdi Sayyah, Elke Schaeffner, Maria Inês Schmidt, Ione J C Schneider, Ben Schöttker, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, James G Scott, Mario Sekerija, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Hosein Shabaninejad, Katya Anne Shackelford, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Mehdi Shahbazi, Amira A Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammadbagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Peilin Shi, Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Ivy Shiue, Farhad Shokraneh, Mark G Shrime, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Tariq J Siddiqi, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir, Donald H Silberberg, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Natacha Torres Da Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jasvinder A Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain 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Werdecker, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, T Eoin West, Ronny Westerman, Harvey A Whiteford, Justyna Widecka, Lauren B Wilner, Shadrach Wilson, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles D A Wolfe, Shouling Wu, Yun-Chun Wu, Grant M A Wyper, Denis Xavier, Gelin Xu, Simon Yadgir, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Bereket Yakob, Lijing L Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Yasin Jemal Yasin, Gökalp Kadri Yentür, Alex Yeshaneh, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Gerald Yonga, Seok-Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Chuanhua Yu, Vesna Zadnik, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Zohreh Zare, Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Anthony Lin Zhang, Kai Zhang, Maigeng Zhou, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Joanna Zuhlke, Mohsen Naghavi, and Christopher J L Murray., Rubagotti, Enrico, Abay, Solomon M., Roth, Gregory, Abd Allah, Foad, Abdela, Jemal, Abbastabar, Hedayat, and Abbasi, Nooshin
Subjects: Overview, Disease, Territory, Causes of death, humanities
Abstract: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. The Lancet Publishing Group
Published: 2019

22. Preventive chemotherapy coverage for neglected tropical diseases: does one metric fit all?

Author: Elizabeth A. Cromwell and Nancy Fullman
Subjects: medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, 030231 tropical medicine, Neglected Diseases, General Medicine, Chemoprevention, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Universal Health Insurance, Tropical Medicine, Metric (mathematics), medicine, Neglected tropical diseases, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Intensive care medicine, business
Published: 2018

23. Epilepsy in Africa: Can we end suffering and financial hardship due to lack of access to effective and affordable care?

Author: Marcia R. Weaver and Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Subjects: Epilepsy, business.industry, Commentary, Medicine, General Medicine, Medical emergency, business, medicine.disease
Published: 2019

24. Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods

Author: Nick Golding, Gail Davey, Simon Brooker, Jorge Cano, Emanuele Giorgi, Simon I. Hay, Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman, Christopher J L Murray, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Kebede Deribe, Melanie J. Newport, Abdisalan M. Noor, Fikre Enquselassie, David M. Pigott, Rachel L. Pullan, and Asrat Hailu
Subjects: medicine.medical_specialty, Veterinary medicine, Epidemiology, lymphoedema, 030231 tropical medicine, Adult population, Medicine (miscellaneous), Population health, Elephantiasis, Somali, World health, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Environmental health, medicine, elephantiasis, Podoconiosis, 030212 general & internal medicine, 2. Zero hunger, podoconiosis, business.industry, 1. No poverty, Articles, medicine.disease, language.human_language, mossy foot, 3. Good health, neglected tropical disease, Neglected tropical diseases, language, Parasitology, Ethiopia, business, Research Article
Abstract: Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the magnitude of podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above), by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults) were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara) contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%), while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent. Conclusions: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is our collective responsibility to scale-up interventions rapidly.
Published: 2017

25. The relationship between entomological indicators of Aedes aegypti abundance and dengue virus infection

Author: Annelies Van Rie, Steven R. Meshnick, Amy C. Morrison, Steven T. Stoddard, Christopher M. Barker, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Thomas W. Scott, William B. Messer, and Gubler, Duane J
Subjects: 0301 basic medicine, Male, Entomology, Veterinary medicine, Life Cycles, Dengue virus, Disease Vectors, Surveys, medicine.disease_cause, Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Mosquitoes, Medical and Health Sciences, Dengue fever, Dengue, 0302 clinical medicine, Larvae, Aedes, Peru, Medicine and Health Sciences, 80 and over, Longitudinal Studies, Child, Aged, 80 and over, Family Characteristics, Incidence (epidemiology), lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Pupa, virus diseases, Middle Aged, Biological Sciences, 3. Good health, Insects, Serology, Infectious Diseases, Research Design, Child, Preschool, Larva, Regression Analysis, Female, Research Article, Environmental Monitoring, Adult, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Arthropoda, Infectious Disease Control, Adolescent, lcsh:RC955-962, 030231 tropical medicine, Aedes aegypti, Mosquito Vectors, Biology, Aedes Aegypti, Research and Analysis Methods, Vaccine Related, 03 medical and health sciences, Young Adult, Clinical Research, Biodefense, Tropical Medicine, medicine, Animals, Humans, Seroconversion, Preschool, Aged, Survey Research, Prevention, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Organisms, Biology and Life Sciences, lcsh:RA1-1270, Pupae, Dengue Virus, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, Virology, Invertebrates, Insect Vectors, Vector-Borne Diseases, Species Interactions, 030104 developmental biology, Cross-Sectional Studies, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, Relative risk, Zoology, Developmental Biology
Abstract: Routine entomological monitoring data are used to quantify the abundance of Ae. aegypti. The public health utility of these indicators is based on the assumption that greater mosquito abundance increases the risk of human DENV transmission, and therefore reducing exposure to the vector decreases incidence of infection. Entomological survey data from two longitudinal cohort studies in Iquitos, Peru, linked with 8,153 paired serological samples taken approximately six months apart were analyzed. Indicators of Ae. aegypti density were calculated from cross-sectional and longitudinal entomological data collected over a 12-month period for larval, pupal and adult Ae. aegypti. Log binomial models were used to estimate risk ratios (RR) to measure the association between Ae. aegypti abundance and the six-month risk of DENV seroconversion. RRs estimated using cross-sectional entomological data were compared to RRs estimated using longitudinal data. Higher cross-sectional Ae. aegypti densities were not associated with an increased risk of DENV seroconversion. Use of longitudinal entomological data resulted in RRs ranging from 1.01 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.02) to 1.30 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.46) for adult stage density estimates and RRs ranging from 1.21 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.37) to 1.75 (95% CI: 1.23, 2.5) for categorical immature indices. Ae. aegypti densities calculated from longitudinal entomological data were associated with DENV seroconversion, whereas those measured cross-sectionally were not. Ae. aegypti indicators calculated from cross-sectional surveillance, as is common practice, have limited public health utility in detecting areas or populations at high risk of DENV infection., Author summary In this study, we compared measures of entomological risk collected through routine household entomological monitoring by estimating an association with human DENV infection. Longitudinal entomological and human serology data from Iquitos, Peru, were used to test associations between Ae. aegypti indices and the 6-month risk of DENV seroconversion. Our analysis found no association between cross-sectional measures of Ae. aegypti abundance and the risk of DENV seroconversion. Longitudinal measures of Ae. aegypti were better proxies for DENV risk, primarily among adult stage mosquito indicators. DENV transmission is complex and time-varying; the relationship between vector density and risk is not static nor adequately characterized through periodic entomological surveillance. While entomological monitoring will continue to serve a role in the evaluation of vector control interventions (e.g., comparing pre- and post-intervention abundance), our analysis challenges the validity of most Ae. aegypti indicators as adequate proxies for true DENV exposure risk.
Published: 2017

26. Trachoma among children in community surveys from four African countries and implications of using school surveys for evaluating prevalence

Author: Jeremiah Ngondi, Nimzing Jip, Aryc W. Mosher, Paul M. Emerson, Peter Odermatt, Tesfaye Teferi, Kadri Boubicar, Yaya Kamissoko, Benjamin C. Nwobi, Aisha E. P. Stewart, Jürg Utzinger, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Adamou Sabo Hassan, Sanoussi Bamani, Jonathan D. King, and Asrat G. Amnie
Subjects: Male, Health (social science), Adolescent, Nigeria, Mali, Cluster design, Proxy (climate), Environmental health, parasitic diseases, Prevalence, medicine, Cluster Analysis, Humans, Niger, Child, Students, Trachoma, School age child, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, Neglected Diseases, General Medicine, medicine.disease, Health Surveys, Cross-Sectional Studies, Child, Preschool, Africa, Neglected tropical diseases, Optometry, Female, Ethiopia, business, School attendance
Abstract: School surveys provide a convenient platform to obtain large child cohorts from multiple communities and are widely used as a proxy to determine community prevalence of neglected tropical diseases. The purpose of this study was to compare trachoma prevalence between preschool- and school-aged children and children who attend and do not attend school.; We analysed data from community-based trachoma surveys conducted from 2008-2011 in Ethiopia, Mali, Niger and Nigeria. The surveys utilised a cross-sectional, randomised cluster design. Individual-level data on school attendance was collected.; Overall, 75 864 children aged 1-15 years from 2100 communities were included in the analysis. The prevalence of trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) among these children in surveyed districts was 19.1% (95% CI 17.9-20.2%) in Ethiopia, 6.2% (95% CI 5.4-6.9%) in Niger, 4.6% (95% CI 4.2-4.9%) in Mali and 4.2% (95% CI 3.5-4.9%) in Nigeria. Controlling for age, sex and clustering, the OR of TF for school-attendees compared to non-attendees was 0.64 (95% CI 0.56-0.73) in Ethiopia, 0.67 (95% CI 0.56-0.80) in Mali, 1.03 (95% CI 0.81-1.16) in Niger and 1.06, (95% CI 0.65-1.73) in Nigeria.; Estimating the prevalence of trachoma through examination of only school-going children risks underestimating the true prevalence.
Published: 2013

27. Evaluation of household latrine coverage in Kewot woreda, Ethiopia, 3 years after implementing interventions to control blinding trachoma

Author: Paul M. Emerson, Mesele Damte, Teshome Gebre, Firew Ayalew, Tesfaye Teferi, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Rachael K. Ross, and Jonathan D. King
Subjects: Health (social science), Blinding, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Psychological intervention, General Medicine, Safe strategy, medicine.disease, Trachoma, Environmental health, medicine, Latrine, Cluster sampling, Rural area, business
Abstract: The SAFE strategy for trachoma control includes Surgery, Antibiotic distribution, Facial cleanliness and Environmental improvements, including promotion of latrine construction. In this study, household latrine coverage was estimated in order to evaluate SAFE implementation in a district of Ethiopia where reported coverage in rural areas was 97%. Characteristics of latrine adopters and non-adopters were explored. Interviews were conducted in 442 households selected at random in a multistage cluster sample. Overall, estimated household latrine coverage was 56.2% (95% CI 37.5-74.8%) and in rural areas coverage was 67.7% (95% CI 59.6-75.7%). Previously owning a latrine was reported by 12.7% (95% CI 8.9-16.5%) of respondents, of which 32.0% (95% CI 15.9-48.2%) had built a replacement. Latrine adopters were more likely to be male (P 0.0001), to report their primary occupation as agriculture (P 0.0001), have more than five residents in their household (P = 0.004) and live in a rural area (P 0.0001). Respondents who were advised by a health extension worker (P 0.0001) or development agent (P 0.0001) were more likely to have built a latrine. Household latrine coverage has increased from the 2007 zonal estimate (8.9%), but was lower than that reported. Latrine promotion should include emphasis on rebuilding latrines. More support may be needed by small households as well as those with a female head if universal latrine access is to be achieved in Kewot.
Published: 2011

28. Randomised trial of face-washing to develop a standard definition of a clean face for monitoring trachoma control programmes

Author: Jeremiah Ngondi, Jennifer Kasten, Mamadou O. Diallo, Jonathan D. King, Huiqing Zhu, Paul M. Emerson, and Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Subjects: Male, medicine.medical_specialty, media_common.quotation_subject, Dentistry, Chlamydia trachomatis, Rural Health, Mali, Tanzania, law.invention, Standard definition, Randomized controlled trial, Risk Factors, Hygiene, law, medicine, Humans, Nose, media_common, Observer Variation, Trachoma, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Neglected Disease, General Medicine, Safe strategy, Reference Standards, medicine.disease, Surgery, Nasal discharge, Infectious Diseases, medicine.anatomical_structure, Socioeconomic Factors, Child, Preschool, Face, Female, Parasitology, business
Abstract: Surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvements (SAFE) are recommended for trachoma control. Programmes assess clean faces in children, but no standard definition of a clean face exists. We conducted a randomised controlled trial of face-washing to develop a valid and repeatable definition of a clean face. A total of 424 children were randomised to washed and unwashed groups after a first observation. Three additional observations were made throughout the day. Photographs were taken at each observation. No difference was observed in wet nasal discharge, dust, food or flies on the face between the face washed and unwashed groups at baseline or after washing. A difference was observed in the presence of ocular discharge (P < 0.001) and dry nasal discharge (P < 0.001) after washing. Agreement among observers was highest for flies (Kappa = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.87-0.91), followed by nasal (Kappa = 0.64, 0.62-0.66) and ocular (Kappa = 0.48, 0.46-0.50) discharge. The ability of any definition to identify whether a face had been washed decreased at each observation. This study suggests that the absence of ocular and dry nasal discharge can be used as an indicator of 'clean face', although it is not a good predictor of whether a face has been washed and is difficult to recommend.
Published: 2011

29. Evaluation of community intervention with pit latrines for trachoma control in Ghana, Mali, Niger and Nigeria

Author: Paul M. Emerson, Yaya Kamissoko, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Ann Rodgers, Lisa Rotondo, Ali Amadou, Jeremiah Ngondi, Jonathan D. King, and Nimzing Jip
Subjects: medicine.medical_specialty, Health (social science), Sanitation, Public health, media_common.quotation_subject, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Pit latrine, General Medicine, medicine.disease, Geography, Promotion (rank), Trachoma, Hygiene, Environmental health, medicine, Latrine, Cluster sampling, media_common
Abstract: Summary Trachoma is the leading cause of preventable blindness worldwide and is controlled with an integrated strategy of treatment and prevention which includes latrine provision and promotion. We aimed to evaluate the latrine uptake, construction, and usage in villages participating in latrine promotion programmes supported by The Carter Center in Ghana, Mali, Niger and Nigeria where 113 457 new latrines have been reported from 2002 to 2008. In each country a two stage cluster random sampling design was used to select villages and households for evaluation. Household heads were interviewed using a standardised structured questionnaire and latrines were inspected. The sample included 1154 households (Ghana: 326; Mali: 293; Niger: 300; and Nigeria: 235). Overall, 813 (70.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 65.7-74.8) had pit latrines, ranging from 30.3% of households in Niger to over 92.0% of households in Ghana and Mali. Of those with latrines 762 (93.7%) were found to be usable and 659 (86.5%) were in use. Overall 659/1154 (57.1%) of households in the targeted communities were using latrines at least 12 months after latrine promotion was initiated. Latrine promotion had been successful increasing access to sanitation in different country contexts and demonstrates the target population are willing to construct, use and maintain household latrines.
Published: 2009

30. Barriers to successful early infant diagnosis of HIV infection at primary care level in Malawi

Author: Chawanangwa Chirambo, Anna Dow, Robert S. Heyderman, Annelies Van Rie, Queen Dube, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, and Daniel Low
Subjects: Microbiology (medical), Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, Malawi, Time Factors, Population, Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Developing country, HIV Infections, Primary care, medicine.disease_cause, Health Services Accessibility, Public health surveillance, Pregnancy, Medicine, Humans, Public Health Surveillance, Prospective Studies, Pregnancy Complications, Infectious, education, Prospective cohort study, education.field_of_study, Primary Health Care, business.industry, Infant, medicine.disease, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, Infectious Diseases, Early Diagnosis, Relative risk, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Female, business
Abstract: HIV-infected women seeking early infant HIV diagnosis (EID) services in Malawi were asked about factors potentially associated with returning for EID results. Many (33.3%) infants failed to complete the EID process because of time and costs required for multiple visits. Infants of mothers receiving antiretroviral treatment were less likely to drop out (adjusted risk ratio 0.51), suggesting that EID completion may improve in programs providing antiretroviral treatment to all pregnant women.
Published: 2015

31. Prevalence of Trachoma at Sub-District Level in Ethiopia: Determining When to Stop Mass Azithromycin Distribution

Author: Jonathan D. King , Tesfaye Teferi , Elizabeth A. Cromwell , Mulat Zerihun , Jeremiah M. Ngondi , Mesele Damte , Frew Ayalew , Zerihun Tadesse , Teshome Gebre , Ayelign Mulualem , Berhanu Melak , Mitku Adugna , Demelash Gessesse , Abebe Worku , Tekola Endashaw , Fisseha Admassu Ayele , Nicole E. Stoller , Mary Rose A. King , Aryc W. Mosher , Tesfaye Gebregzabher , Geremew Haileysus , Peter Odermatt ,Ju ¨ Rg Utzinger , Alemu Karie , Paul M. Emerson
Abstract: No abstract available for this resource
Published: 2014

32. Prevalence of trachoma at sub-district level in Ethiopia : determining when to stop mass azithromycin distribution

Author: Tekola Endashaw, Abebe Worku, Demelash Gessesse, Mulat Zerihun, Jürg Utzinger, Mitku Adugna, Jeremiah Ngondi, Aryc W. Mosher, Ayelign Mulualem, Fisseha Admassu Ayele, Teshome Gebre, Peter Odermatt, Mesele Damte, Tesfaye Teferi, Zerihun Tadesse, Mary Rose A. King, Frew Ayalew, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Paul M. Emerson, Berhanu Melak, Tesfaye Gebregzabher, Alemu Karie, Geremew Haileysus, Jonathan D. King, and Nicole E. Stoller
Subjects: Male, Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, RC955-962, Population, Distribution (economics), Azithromycin, World health, Drug Therapy, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Environmental health, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, Mass drug administration, education, Trichiasis, Trachoma, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, medicine.disease, Anti-Bacterial Agents, Ophthalmology, Infectious Diseases, Child, Preschool, Medicine, Female, Public Health, Ethiopia, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, business, District level, medicine.drug, Research Article
Abstract: Background To eliminate blinding trachoma, the World Health Organization emphasizes implementing the SAFE strategy, which includes annual mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin to the whole population of endemic districts. Prevalence surveys to assess impact at the district level are recommended after at least 3 years of intervention. The decision to stop MDA is based on a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation follicular (TF) among children aged 1–9 years below 5% at the sub-district level, as determined by an additional round of surveys limited within districts where TF prevalence is below 10%. We conducted impact surveys powered to estimate prevalence simultaneously at the sub-district and district in two zones of Amhara, Ethiopia to determine whether MDA could be stopped. Methodology Seventy-two separate population-based, sub-district surveys were conducted in 25 districts. In each survey all residents from 10 randomly selected clusters were screened for clinical signs of trachoma. Data were weighted according to selection probabilities and adjusted for correlation due to clustering. Principal Findings Overall, 89,735 residents were registered from 21,327 households of whom 72,452 people (80.7%) were examined. The prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years was below 5% in six sub-districts and two districts. Sub-district level prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years ranged from 0.9–76.9% and district-level from 0.9–67.0%. In only one district was the prevalence of trichiasis below 0.1%. Conclusions/Significance The experience from these zones in Ethiopia demonstrates that impact assessments designed to give a prevalence estimate of TF at sub-district level are possible, although the scale of the work was challenging. Given the assessed district-level prevalence of TF, sub-district-level surveys would have been warranted in only five districts. Interpretation was not as simple as stopping MDA in sub-districts below 5% given programmatic challenges of exempting sub-districts from a highly regarded program and the proximity of hyper-endemic sub-districts., Author Summary Trachoma, the leading cause of preventable blindness, is targeted for “elimination as a public health problem” by the year 2020. National programs are implementing the recommended strategy of surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvements (SAFE) to meet this target. Many programs are currently facing the decision of when to scale down interventions, particularly mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin. We implemented large population-based surveys in two different zones of the Amhara National Regional State of Ethiopia. Rather than conducting an impact assessment first at the district level, followed by additional sub-district-level surveys, we took a novel approach to measure the prevalence of trachoma at sub-district level to be able to make an immediate decision of whether to stop MDA. Over 72,000 people in 714 communities in 72 sub-districts were examined for clinical signs of trachoma. We identified only six sub-districts that met criteria for being able to stop MDA. Our work demonstrates that determining the prevalence of trachoma at sub-district level is feasible but requires significant resources. In this hyper-endemic setting, sub-district-level surveys were not needed in the majority of districts. Overall, the clinical data suggest some decline in trachoma within these areas since the SAFE strategy was implemented.
Published: 2014
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33. Validity of US norms for the Bayley Scales of Infant Development-III in Malawian children

Author: Anna Dow, Annelies Van Rie, Queen Dube, Chawanangwa Chirambo, Robert S. Heyderman, Stephen R. Cole, and Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Subjects: Male, Mental development, Malawi, Psychometrics, Developmental Disabilities, Gross motor skill, Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Article, Developmental psychology, Child Development, Reference Values, Humans, Expressive communication, Toddler, Child, Infant, Newborn, Infant, General Medicine, Child development, United States, Child, Preschool, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Female, Neurology (clinical), Psychology, Psychometric tests
Abstract: Most psychometric tests originate from Europe and North America and have not been validated in other populations. We assessed the validity of United States (US)-based norms for the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III (BSID-III), a neurodevelopmental tool developed for and commonly used in the US, in Malawian children.We constructed BSID-III norms for cognitive, fine motor (FM), gross motor (GM), expressive communication (EC) and receptive communication (RC) subtests using 5173 tests scores in 167 healthy Malawian children. Norms were generated using Generalized Additive Models for location, scale and shape, with age modeled continuously. Standard z-scores were used to classify neurodevelopmental delay. Weighted kappa statistics were used to compare the classification of neurological development using US-based and Malawian norms.For all subtests, the mean raw scores in Malawian children were higher than the US normative scores at younger ages (approximately6 months) after which the mean curves crossed and the US normative mean exceeded that of the Malawian sample and the age at which the curves crossed differed by subtest. Weighted kappa statistics for agreement between US and Malawian norms were 0.45 for cognitive, 0.48 for FM, 0.57 for GM, 0.50 for EC, and 0.44 for RC.We demonstrate that population reference curves for the BSID-III differ depending on the origin of the population. Reliance on US norm-based standardized scores resulted in misclassification of the neurological development of Malawian children, with the greatest potential for bias in the measurement of cognitive and language skills.
Published: 2014
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34. Correction: The Geographical Distribution and Burden of Trachoma in Africa

Author: Sarah Polack, Paul M. Emerson, Simon Brooker, Rebecca M. Flueckiger, Jennifer L. Smith, Stephanie L. Palmer, David Mabey, Anthony W. Solomon, Pamela J. Hooper, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, and Danny Haddad
Subjects: lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, lcsh:RC955-962, business.industry, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, RC955-962, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Correction, Distribution (economics), lcsh:RA1-1270, medicine.disease, Infectious Diseases, Trachoma, Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Medicine, Table (landform), Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, business, Cartography
Abstract: In Table 3 the entry for Ethiopia contains incorrect sums of the subpopulation data within the larger geographical zones. Please see the corrected Table 3 here
Published: 2013

35. Trachoma prevalence in Niger: results of 31 district-level surveys

Author: Aryc W. Mosher, Jonathan D. King, Abdou Amza, Salissou Kane, Sabo Hassan, Dieudonne Sankara, Paul M. Emerson, Boubacar Kadri, Nassirou Beidou, and Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Subjects: Adult, Male, Sanitation, Adolescent, media_common.quotation_subject, Disease cluster, Young Adult, Hygiene, Residence Characteristics, Environmental health, medicine, Prevalence, Cluster Analysis, Humans, Niger, Child, Trichiasis, media_common, Trachoma, Health Services Needs and Demand, Blindness, Transmission (medicine), business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, General Medicine, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Infectious Diseases, Child, Preschool, Parasitology, Female, business, District level
Abstract: BACKGROUND The leading cause of preventable blindness worldwide is trachoma, a condition caused by an infection of the inner eyelid. In Niger, a landlocked republic in Western Africa, surveys in 1988-89 identified trachoma as endemic in all but one region and, as a result, there is a National Prevention of Blindness Program plan to eliminate trachoma by 2015. METHODS Thirty-one districts in eastern and western Niger were surveyed for trachoma prevalence from May 2009 to March 2012 as part of routine program impact evaluations. Prevalence surveys were implemented independently in each district using a two-stage cluster random design. Probability proportional to size was used to randomly select villages and 25 households were selected in each cluster. The prevalence of trachoma of clinical grade trachomatous follicular (TF) was estimated in children aged 1-9 years, and the prevalence of blinding trachoma, trachomatous trichiasis (TT), was measured in adults aged ≥15 years. RESULTS A total of 14 211 households was surveyed; 58 617 individuals were evaluated for clinical signs of trachoma, of whom 27 087 were children aged 1-9 years. District-wide implementation of the full SAFE strategy is warranted in 16 districts where TF prevalence exceeds 10% and targeted implementation of the SAFE strategy (surgery for trichiasis; antibiotic therapy to control transmission; facial cleanliness for hygiene promotion; environmental change for improvements in access to water and sanitation) is recommended in the remaining 15 districts. The prevalence of TT among adults exceeded 1% in nine districts, suggesting that surgical services to treat TT should be implemented district-wide. CONCLUSIONS These results establish the need for continued SAFE strategy implementation throughout Niger.
Published: 2013

36. Malaria prevalence, anemia and baseline intervention coverage prior to mass net distributions in Abia and Plateau States, Nigeria

Author: Jeremiah Ngondi, Masayo Ozaki, Amy E. Patterson, Patricia M. Graves, Emmanuel Emukah, Frank O. Richards, Renn McClintic-Doyle, Paul M. Emerson, Mary Umar, James G. Damen, Abel Eigege, Kal Alphonsus, Oji Uka Oji, Solomon Eneiramo, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joseph Ajiji, Iheanyichi Okorofor, Josephine Obiezu, Olusola Bukola Oresanya, Chinyere Okoro, Adamu Sallau, Emmanuel S. Miri, and Gregory S. Noland
Subjects: Male, Veterinary medicine, Plasmodium, Mosquito Control, Indoor residual spraying, Net ownership, Plasmodium malariae, Pregnancy, Prevalence, LLIN, Child, Family Characteristics, Plateau, geography.geographical_feature_category, Mosquito Nets, biology, Data Collection, Anemia, Middle Aged, Infectious Diseases, Malariae, Child, Preschool, Female, Research Article, Net use, Adult, Falciparum, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, Nigeria, Young Adult, Age groups, parasitic diseases, medicine, Animals, Humans, geography, business.industry, biology.organism_classification, medicine.disease, Bed net, Insect Vectors, Malaria, Culicidae, Tropical medicine, business, Abia, Demography
Abstract: Background: Nigeria suffers the world’s largest malaria burden, with approximately 51 million cases and 207,000 deaths annually. As part of the country’s aim to reduce by 50% malaria-related morbidity and mortality by 2013, it embarked on mass distribution of free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). Methods: Prior to net distribution campaigns in Abia and Plateau States, Nigeria, a modified malaria indicator survey was conducted in September 2010 to determine baseline state-level estimates of Plasmodium prevalence, childhood anemia, indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage and bednet ownership and utilization. Results: Overall age-adjusted prevalence of Plasmodium infection by microscopy was similar between Abia (36.1%, 95% CI: 32.3%–40.1%; n = 2,936) and Plateau (36.6%, 95% CI: 31.3%–42.3%; n = 4,209), with prevalence highest among children 5-9 years. P. malariae accounted for 32.0% of infections in Abia, but only 1.4% of infections in Plateau. More than half of children ≤10 years were anemic, with anemia significantly higher in Abia (76.9%, 95% CI: 72.1%–81.0%) versus Plateau (57.1%, 95% CI: 50.6%–63.4%). Less than 1% of households in Abia (n = 1,305) or Plateau (n = 1,335) received IRS in the 12 months prior to survey. Household ownership of at least one bednet of any type was 10.1% (95% CI: 7.5%–13.4%) in Abia and 35.1% (95% CI: 29.2%-41.5%) in Plateau. Ownership of two or more bednets was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2%–3.7%) in Abia and 14.5% (95% CI: 10.2%–20.3%) in Plateau. Overall reported net use the night before the survey among all individuals, children
Published: 2013

37. Estimation of population coverage for antibiotic distribution for trachoma control: a comparison of methods

Author: Gideon Gatpan, Jeremiah Ngondi, Paul M. Emerson, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Jonathan D. King, Deborah A. McFarland, Lucia W. Kur, and Steven Becknell
Subjects: Estimation, medicine.medical_specialty, education.field_of_study, Health (social science), business.industry, Population, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Distribution (economics), General Medicine, medicine.disease, Head of Household, Surgery, Trachoma, Assessment methods, Medicine, business, Mass drug administration, education, Health worker, Demography
Abstract: Trachoma control includes mass drug administration (MDA) with antibiotics targeting coverage of at least 80%. Coverage is traditionally calculated by dividing doses distributed by population estimate, which is unreliable. We compared a verifiable coverage assessment method against self-reported participation and the traditional calculation, and examined factors associated with MDA participation in Akobo County, Southern Sudan. During MDA, recipients were marked with indelible ink and followed-up using a two-stage household survey: 25 clusters from three districts, and 10 households per cluster. All household members were enumerated; asked about self-reported participation and observed for indelible marks. Household heads were interviewed to assess factors associated with MDA. Overall 11 419 treatments were given and 1358 residents from 247 households surveyed. By traditional methods MDA coverage was 20.9% (95% CI: 20.6-21.3); 61.5% (95 % CI: 49.4-73.6) by self-reporting; and 37.5% (95% CI: 25.1%-49.9%) from observed ink marks. Controlling for other factors, presence of a health worker (OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.5-3.6); head of household knowledge of azithromycin (OR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.5-3.1); and head of household advance notice of MDA (OR 34.9, 18.1-66.3) were independent predictors of participation. Cluster randomised surveys can estimate MDA coverage better than the traditional method and implementation of indelible marking merits investigation.
Published: 2013

38. Correlation between Dengue-Specific Neutralizing Antibodies and Serum Avidity in Primary and Secondary Dengue Virus 3 Natural Infections in Humans

Author: Louis Lau, Angel Balmaseda, Simona Zompi, Andreas S. Puschnik, Eva Harris, and Elizabeth A. Cromwell
Subjects: Male, Serotype, Viral Diseases, viruses, Antibody Affinity, Nicaragua, Dengue virus, Antibodies, Viral, medicine.disease_cause, Immunoglobulin G, Dengue fever, Dengue, 0302 clinical medicine, Emerging Viral Diseases, Child, Immune Response, 0303 health sciences, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Antibody titer, virus diseases, 3. Good health, Infectious Diseases, Child, Preschool, Medicine, Female, Research Article, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Adolescent, lcsh:RC955-962, Secondary infection, Immunology, 030231 tropical medicine, chemical and pharmacologic phenomena, Biology, Microbiology, 03 medical and health sciences, Virology, medicine, Humans, Avidity, Immunity to Infections, 030304 developmental biology, Immunity, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, lcsh:RA1-1270, Dengue Virus, medicine.disease, Antibodies, Neutralizing, Immunoglobulin M, Humoral Immunity, biology.protein
Abstract: Although heterotypic secondary infection with dengue virus (DENV) is associated with severe disease, the majority of secondary infections are mild or asymptomatic. The mechanisms of antibody-mediated protection are poorly understood. In 2010, 108 DENV3-positive cases were enrolled in a pediatric hospital-based study in Managua, Nicaragua, with 61 primary and 47 secondary infections. We analyzed DENV-specific neutralization titers (NT50), IgM and IgG avidity, and antibody titer in serum samples collected during acute and convalescent phases and 3, 6, and 18 months post-infection. NT50 titers peaked at convalescence and decreased thereafter. IgG avidity to DENV3 significantly increased between convalescent and 3-month time-points in primary DENV infections and between the acute and convalescent phase in secondary DENV infections. While avidity to DENV2, a likely previous infecting serotype, was initially higher than avidity to DENV3 in secondary DENV infections, the opposite relation was observed 3–18 months post-infection. We found significant correlations between IgM avidity and NT50 in acute primary cases and between IgG avidity and NT50 in secondary DENV infections. In summary, our findings indicate that IgM antibodies likely play a role in early control of DENV infections. IgG serum avidity to DENV, analyzed for the first time in longitudinal samples, switches from targeting mainly cross-reactive serotype(s) to the current infecting serotype over time. Finally, serum avidity correlates with neutralization capacity., Author Summary Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne viral illness in humans, with 3 billion people at risk for infection. Four different dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) cause the disease, which can be either inapparent or present with flu-like symptoms (Dengue Fever, aka “breakbone fever”). The disease can be more severe and sometimes fatal, with signs of bleeding and vascular leakage leading to shock (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever/Dengue Shock Syndrome). No specific treatment or vaccine is available. Understanding how the human immune response develops during a natural infection can be beneficial for future vaccine studies and trials. DENV-specific serum neutralizing capacity may play a role in protection. The neutralization capacity of the serum may depend on the serum avidity against DENV, the amount (or titer) of the anti-DENV antibodies, and the accessibility of the epitopes targeted by these antibodies. Here we show that DENV-specific IgM antibodies likely play a role in neutralization during primary DENV infections and show a correlation between serum avidity and neutralization capacity in secondary DENV infections, with greater avidity to a previously infecting DENV serotype as compared to the current infecting DENV serotype in the early phases of infection, switching over time to the opposite situation.
Published: 2013
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39. Monitoring of Mass Distribution Interventions for Trachoma in Plateau State, Nigeria

Author: Amy E. Patterson, Scott McPherson, Darin S. Evans, Falam N. Jip, Paul M. Emerson, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Aryc W. Mosher, and Jonathan D. King
Subjects: Male, Pediatrics, Psychological intervention, Global Health, Health personnel, Medicine, skin and connective tissue diseases, Child, Aged, 80 and over, education.field_of_study, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Health services research, Safe strategy, Middle Aged, Anti-Bacterial Agents, Infectious Diseases, Treatment Outcome, Trachoma, Child, Preschool, Female, Public Health, Health Services Research, Drug Monitoring, Research Article, Neglected Tropical Diseases, Adult, medicine.medical_specialty, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Adolescent, lcsh:RC955-962, Population, Nigeria, Age and gender, Interviews as Topic, Young Adult, Drug Therapy, Environmental health, Humans, Mass drug administration, education, Aged, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, lcsh:RA1-1270, Patient Acceptance of Health Care, medicine.disease, Drug Utilization, business
Abstract: Mass drug administration (MDA) with antibiotics is a key component of the SAFE strategy for trachoma control. Guidelines recommend that where MDA is warranted the whole population be targeted with 80% considered the minimum acceptable coverage. In other countries, MDA is usually conducted by salaried Ministry of Health personnel (MOH). In Plateau State, Nigeria, the existing network of volunteer Community Directed Distributors (CDD) was used for the first trachoma MDA. We conducted a population-based cluster random survey (CRS) of MDA participation to determine the true coverage and compared this to coverage reported from CDD registers. We surveyed 1,791 people from 352 randomly selected households in 24 clusters in three districts in Plateau State in January 2011, following the implementation of MDA. Households were enumerated and all individuals present were asked about MDA participation. Household heads were questioned about household-level characteristics and predictors of participation. Individual responses were compared with the CDD registers. MDA coverage was estimated as 60.3% (95% CI 47.9–73.8%) by the survey compared with 75.8% from administrative program reports. CDD registration books for comparison with responses were available in 19 of the 24 clusters; there was a match for 658/682 (96%) of verifiable responses. CDD registers did not list 481 (41.3%) of the individuals surveyed. Gender and age were not associated with individual participation. Overall MDA coverage was lower than the minimum 80% target. The observed discrepancy between the administrative coverage estimate from program reports and the CRS was largely due to identification of communities missed by the MDA and not reported in the registers. CRS for evaluation of MDA provides a useful additional monitoring tool to CDD registers. These data support modification of distributor training and MDA delivery to increase coverage in subsequent rounds of MDA., Author Summary The World Health Organization recommends that mass drug administration for trachoma control reach a minimum of 80% of the target population. Previous evaluations of MDA coverage have demonstrated that administrative reports can bias coverage estimates. A survey of participation in mass drug administration for trachoma control was implemented in three districts in Plateau State, Nigeria in 2011 to validate coverage calculated from treatment registers. A total of 352 households were surveyed from 24 randomly selected communities. Heads of household were interviewed to identify household-level characteristics and predictors of participation. Individual household members were enumerated and those present at the time of interview were asked to report individual participation in the MDA. Responses were verified against the community-drug distributor registration log. Approximately 60% of the sample reported receiving either tetracycline eye ointment or azithromycin for trachoma control. Administrative data on treatment estimated coverage at 76% for the three LGAs. The discrepancy between the coverage estimate from administrative data (calculated by the program) and the survey data suggest that cluster random surveys of MDA provide a useful monitoring tool to validate administrative data on treatment coverage. These data support modification of distributor training and MDA delivery to increase coverage in subsequent rounds of MDA.
Published: 2013

40. The geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa

Author: Stephanie L. Palmer, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Simon Brooker, David Mabey, Rebecca M. Flueckiger, Danny Haddad, Jennifer L. Smith, Sarah Polack, Anthony W. Solomon, Paul M. Emerson, and Pamela J. Hooper
Subjects: Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Geographic information system, Adolescent, lcsh:RC955-962, Epidemiology, Population, Psychological intervention, Global Health, Disease Mapping, Survey methodology, Young Adult, Environmental health, medicine, Humans, education, Child, Trichiasis, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Trachoma, education.field_of_study, business.industry, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, lcsh:RA1-1270, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Geography, Infectious Diseases, Child, Preschool, Africa, Survey data collection, Optometry, Medicine, Female, Topography, Medical, Public Health, business, Research Article, Neglected Tropical Diseases
Abstract: Background There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa. Methods Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class. Results At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic. Conclusion The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control., Author Summary In order to target resources and drugs to reach trachoma elimination targets by the year 2020, data on the burden of disease are required. Using prevalence data in African countries derived from the Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT), the distribution of trachoma continues to be focused in East and West Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and a few endemic countries in Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, 129.4 million people are estimated to live in areas that are confirmed to be trachoma endemic and 98 million are known to require access to the SAFE strategy. The maps and information presented in this work highlight the GAT as important open-access planning and advocacy tool for efforts to finalize trachoma mapping and assist national programmes in planning interventions.
Published: 2013

41. A novel electronic data collection system for large-scale surveys of neglected tropical diseases

Author: Andrew Panfel, Peter Odermatt, Tesfaye Teferi, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joy Buolamwini, Mulat Zerihun, Jürg Utzinger, Jonathan D. King, Jessica Watson, Berhanu Melak, Danielle Vienneau, Zerihun Tadesse, Jeremiah Ngondi, and Paul M. Emerson
Subjects: Databases, Factual, Science, Data management, 030231 tropical medicine, computer.software_genre, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Surveys and Questionnaires, Electronic Health Records, Humans, Medicine, 030212 general & internal medicine, Android (operating system), Tropical Climate, Multidisciplinary, Data collection, Database, business.industry, Data Collection, Neglected Diseases, 3. Good health, Needs assessment, Management system, Survey data collection, The Internet, Electronic data, business, computer, Research Article
Abstract: BackgroundLarge cross-sectional household surveys are common for measuring indicators of neglected tropical disease control programs. As an alternative to standard paper-based data collection, we utilized novel paperless technology to collect data electronically from over 12,000 households in Ethiopia.MethodologyWe conducted a needs assessment to design an Android-based electronic data collection and management system. We then evaluated the system by reporting results of a pilot trial and from comparisons of two, large-scale surveys; one with traditional paper questionnaires and the other with tablet computers, including accuracy, person-time days, and costs incurred.Principle findingsThe electronic data collection system met core functions in household surveys and overcame constraints identified in the needs assessment. Pilot data recorders took 264 (standard deviation (SD) 152 sec) and 260 sec (SD 122 sec) per person registered to complete household surveys using paper and tablets, respectively (P = 0.77). Data recorders felt a lack of connection with the interviewee during the first days using electronic devices, but preferred to collect data electronically in future surveys. Electronic data collection saved time by giving results immediately, obviating the need for double data entry and cross-correcting. The proportion of identified data entry errors in disease classification did not differ between the two data collection methods. Geographic coordinates collected using the tablets were more accurate than coordinates transcribed on a paper form. Costs of the equipment required for electronic data collection was approximately the same cost incurred for data entry of questionnaires, whereas repeated use of the electronic equipment may increase cost savings.Conclusions/significanceConducting a needs assessment and pilot testing allowed the design to specifically match the functionality required for surveys. Electronic data collection using an Android-based technology was suitable for a large-scale health survey, saved time, provided more accurate geo-coordinates, and was preferred by recorders over standard paper-based questionnaires.
Published: 2013

42. Methods for estimating population coverage of mass distribution programmes: a review of practices in relation to trachoma control

Author: Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Deborah A. McFarland, Paul M. Emerson, Jonathan D. King, and Jeremiah Ngondi
Subjects: Male, Quality Assurance, Health Care, Population, Context (language use), Nonprobability sampling, Survey methodology, Environmental health, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling, education, Trachoma, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Neglected Diseases, General Medicine, medicine.disease, Anti-Bacterial Agents, Infectious Diseases, Population Surveillance, Parasitology, Cluster sampling, Female, Lot quality assurance sampling, business, Quality assurance
Abstract: In the context of trachoma control, population coverage with mass drug administration (MDA) using antibiotics is measured using routine data. Due to the limitations of administrative records as well as the potential for bias from incomplete or incorrect records, a literature review of coverage survey methods applied in neglected tropical disease control programmes and immunisation outreach was conducted to inform the design of coverage surveys for trachoma control. Several methods were identified, including the '30 × 7' survey method for the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI 30×7), other cluster random sampling (CRS) methods, lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS), purposive sampling and routine data. When compared against one another, the EPI and other CRS methods produced similar population coverage estimates, whilst LQAS, purposive sampling and use of administrative data did not generate estimates consistent with CRS. In conclusion, CRS methods present a consistent approach for MDA coverage surveys despite different methods of household selection. They merit use until standard guidelines are available. CRS methods should be used to verify population coverage derived from LQAS, purposive sampling methods and administrative reports.
Published: 2011

43. The prevalence of blinding trachoma in northern states of Sudan

Author: Kamal Hashim Binnawi, Ghada Al Ginaid, Awad Hassan, Dieudonne Sankara, Mazin Elsanousi, Paul M. Emerson, Balgesa Elkheir Elshafie, Zeinab Abdalla, Jeremiah Ngondi, Victoria Simms, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Nabil Aziz, and Jonathan D. King
Subjects: Adult, Male, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, Blinding, Adolescent, lcsh:RC955-962, Cross-sectional study, Epidemiology, Population, Eye Infections, Psychological intervention, Blindness, Severity of Illness Index, Sudan, Disease Mapping, Young Adult, Environmental health, medicine, Prevalence, Humans, education, Child, Trichiasis, Aged, Response rate (survey), Aged, 80 and over, Trachoma, education.field_of_study, business.industry, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infant, Newborn, Infant, lcsh:RA1-1270, Middle Aged, medicine.disease, Ophthalmology, Infectious Diseases, Cross-Sectional Studies, Survey Methods, Child, Preschool, Optometry, Medicine, Cluster sampling, Female, business, Research Article
Abstract: Background Despite historical evidence of blinding trachoma, there have been no widespread contemporary surveys of trachoma prevalence in the northern states of Sudan. We aimed to conduct district-level surveys in this vast region in order to map the extent of the problem and estimate the need for trachoma control interventions to eliminate blinding trachoma. Methods and Findings Separate, population based cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 88 localities (districts) in 12 northern states of Sudan between 2006 and 2010. Two-stage cluster random sampling with probability proportional to size was used to select the sample. Trachoma grading was done using the WHO simplified grading system. Key prevalence indicators were trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in adults aged 15 years and above. The sample comprised 1,260 clusters from which 25,624 households were surveyed. A total of 106,697 participants (81.6% response rate) were examined for trachoma signs. TF prevalence was above 10% in three districts and between 5% and 9% in 11 districts. TT prevalence among adults was above 1% in 20 districts (which included the three districts with TF prevalence >10%). The overall number of people with TT in the population was estimated to be 31,072 (lower and upper bounds = 26,125–36,955). Conclusion Trachoma mapping is complete in the northern states of Sudan except for the Darfur States. The survey findings will facilitate programme planning and inform deployment of resources for elimination of trachoma from the northern states of Sudan by 2015, in accordance with the Sudan Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) objectives., Author Summary Trachoma is an infectious disease which is caused by a bacterium, Chlamydia trachomatis and is the leading cause of preventable blindness, estimated to be responsible for 2.9% of blindness globally. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends an integrated strategy for control and elimination of blinding trachoma known as SAFE, which stands for: surgery; antibiotics; facial cleanliness; and environmental improvement. In order to identify districts where trachoma is a public health problem, we undertook 88 district-level surveys in 12 northern states of Sudan. Our findings revealed that interventions to prevent blinding trachoma are recommended in 14 out of 88 districts where the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1–9 years exceeded the WHO thresholds for intervention. Services to provide surgery to those with trachomatous trichiasis (TT) should be prioritized in 20 districts where prevalence of TT in adults exceeded 1%. These findings are important since they will help the Sudan Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) to prioritize resources for elimination of trachoma.
Published: 2011

44. Estimation of effects of community intervention with antibiotics, facial cleanliness, and environmental improvement (A,F,E) in five districts of Ethiopia hyperendemic for trachoma

Author: Berhan Ayele, Estifanos B Shargie, Jeremiah Ngondi, Mulat Zerihun, Teshome Gebre, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Jonathan D. King, Liknaw Adamu, Tesfaye Teferi, and Paul M. Emerson
Subjects: Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Endemic Diseases, medicine.drug_class, media_common.quotation_subject, Antibiotics, Psychological intervention, Azithromycin, Disease cluster, Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience, Hygiene, Environmental health, Medicine, Humans, Community Health Services, Sanitation, Child, media_common, Estimation, Trachoma, business.industry, Infant, medicine.disease, Sensory Systems, Surgery, Anti-Bacterial Agents, Ophthalmology, Child, Preschool, Female, Ethiopia, business, Delivery of Health Care, medicine.drug, Community intervention, Program Evaluation
Abstract: The WHO recommends the SAFE (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness and environmental improvement) strategy for trachoma control. We aimed to investigate the association between active trachoma and community intervention with antibiotics, facial cleanliness, environmental improvement (A,F,E) components of SAFE in five trachoma hyperendemic districts of Amhara region, Ethiopia.Cluster random surveys were undertaken to evaluate SAFE following 3 years of interventions. Children aged 1-9 years were examined for trachoma signs using the WHO simplified grading system and structured questionnaires used to assess uptake of A, F and E. Active trachoma signs (trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI)) were used to derive an ordinal severity score where TI was considered more severe than TF. Associations between active trachoma and potential factors were investigated using ordinal logistic multilevel regression models.A total of 1813 children aged 1-9 years were included in the analysis. Factors independently associated with reduced odds of active trachoma signs were: number of times treated with azithromycin (p-trend=0.026); months since last mass azithromycin distribution (p-trend0.001); clean face (OR=0.6; 95% CI 0.5 to 0.8); and household pit latrine (OR=0.8; 95% CI 0.7 to 0.9).These findings are important, since they make the case for continued implementing the A,F,E interventions simultaneously, and suggest appropriate timing of SAFE evaluations within 6-12 months after the last mass azithromycin distribution.
Published: 2009

45. The excess burden of trachomatous trichiasis in women: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Author: Paul Courtright, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Jonathan D. King, Paul M. Emerson, Lisa Rotondo, and Jeremiah Ngondi
Subjects: Sexually transmitted disease, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Population, Chlamydia trachomatis, Blindness, Odds, Sex Factors, Epidemiology, medicine, Odds Ratio, Prevalence, Humans, education, Trichiasis, Trachoma, education.field_of_study, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, General Medicine, Odds ratio, medicine.disease, Health Surveys, Infectious Diseases, Meta-analysis, Population Surveillance, Optometry, Parasitology, Female, business, Demography
Abstract: Summary It is widely accepted that women carry an increased burden of trachomatous trichiasis compared with men, but there is no systematic review of the available prevalence surveys in the peer-reviewed literature. A literature search was conducted to identify population-based trachoma prevalence surveys utilising the WHO simplified grading system that included data for trichiasis. Of 53 identified studies, 24 studies from 12 different countries met the inclusion criteria. Prevalence data were pooled in a meta-analysis to estimate an overall odds ratio (OR). The overall odds of trichiasis in women compared with men was 1.82 (95% CI 1.61—2.07). Individual survey ORs ranged from 0.83 (95% CI 0.40—1.73) in Myanmar to 3.82 (95% CI 2.36—6.19) in Ethiopia. There were statistically significant differences in odds of trichiasis by gender in 17 of 24 studies, all of which showed increased odds of trichiasis in women compared with men. These data confirm the perception that women have a greater burden of trichiasis, and this burden persists across all populations studied. Women must be specifically and deliberately targeted for trichiasis surgery if the aim of eliminating blindness from trachoma is to be achieved. © 2009 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Published: 2009

46. Incremental Cost of Conducting Population-Based Prevalence Surveys for a Neglected Tropical Disease: The Example of Trachoma in 8 National Programs

Author: Jonathan D. King, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Chaoqun Chen, Emma M. Harding-Esch, Paul M. Emerson, Aryc W. Mosher, and Jeremiah Ngondi
Subjects: Marginal cost, lcsh:Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, lcsh:RC955-962, 030231 tropical medicine, Population, Disease cluster, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Environmental health, parasitic diseases, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, education, Retrospective Studies, Trachoma, education.field_of_study, lcsh:Public aspects of medicine, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Neglected Diseases, Tropical disease, lcsh:RA1-1270, medicine.disease, eye diseases, 3. Good health, Ophthalmology, Infectious Diseases, Geography, Infectious Diseases/Neglected Tropical Diseases, Cost driver, Population Surveillance, Africa, Neglected tropical diseases, Cluster sampling, Public Health Administration, Research Article
Abstract: Background Trachoma prevalence surveys provide the evidence base for district and community-wide implementation of the SAFE strategy, and are used to evaluate the impact of trachoma control interventions. An economic analysis was performed to estimate the cost of trachoma prevalence surveys conducted between 2006 and 2010 from 8 national trachoma control programs in Africa. Methodology and Findings Data were collected retrospectively from reports for 165 districts surveyed for trachoma prevalence using a cluster random sampling methodology in Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Sudan, Southern Sudan and The Gambia. The median cost per district survey was $4,784 (inter-quartile range [IQR] = $3,508–$6,650) while the median cost per cluster was $311 (IQR = $119–$393). Analysis by cost categories (personnel, transportation, supplies and other) and cost activity (training, field work, supervision and data entry) revealed that the main cost drivers were personnel and transportation during field work. Conclusion Population-based cluster random surveys are used to provide the evidence base to set objectives and determine when elimination targets have been reached for several neglected tropical diseases, including trachoma. The cost of conducting epidemiologically rigorous prevalence surveys should not be a barrier to program implementation or evaluation., Author Summary The costs of conducting population-based prevalence surveys for neglected tropical diseases such as trachoma are often cited as a reason that program managers do not conduct baseline or impact assessments when guidelines suggest they are warranted. The authors conducted a review of actual costs incurred during the implementation of 165 district level surveys in 8 national trachoma control programs to identify the median and mean costs per district and per cluster. In addition, the costs of the principal activities that are the most expensive were measured. The data show that field work is the most expensive activity for a prevalence survey, with personnel (per diems, allowances and accommodation) and transport costs driving the total cost of the survey. These findings can be used by program managers to budget for population-based prevalence surveys that are recommended for baseline and evaluation surveys, and periodic uptake surveys for neglected tropical diseases such as trachoma.
Published: 2011

47. Multivariable analysis to determine if HIV-1 Tat dicysteine motif is associated with neurodevelopmental delay in HIV-infected children in Malawi

Author: Anna Dow, Annelies Van Rie, Jasmeen Dara, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Christa Buckheit Sturdevant, Macpherson Mallewa, Vinayaka R. Prasad, and Ronald Swanstrom
Subjects: Male, Malawi, Pediatrics, medicine.medical_specialty, Genotype, Cross-sectional study, Developmental Disabilities, Cognitive Neuroscience, Neurodevelopment, Amino Acid Motifs, Dicysteine motif, HIV Infections, Neuropathology, Encephalopathy, Bayley Scales of Infant Development, 03 medical and health sciences, Behavioral Neuroscience, 0302 clinical medicine, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, HIV-1 subtype C, Genotyping, Biological Psychiatry, 030304 developmental biology, 0303 health sciences, business.industry, Research, Infant, General Medicine, Viral Load, 3. Good health, Cross-Sectional Studies, Cohort, HIV-1, Female, tat Gene Products, Human Immunodeficiency Virus, Tat, business, Viral load, Neurocognitive, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery
Abstract: Background HIV-1 Tat protein is implicated in HIV-neuropathogenesis. Tat C31S polymorphism (TatCS) has been associated with milder neuropathology in vitro and in animal models but this has not been addressed in a cohort of HIV-infected adults or children. Methods HIV viral load (VL) in plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) were determined and plasma HIV tat gene was sequenced. Neurodevelopmental assessment was performed using Bayley Scales of Infant Development III (BSID-III), with scores standardized to Malawian norms. The association between TatCS and BSID-III scores was evaluated using multivariate linear regression. Results Neurodevelopmental assessment and HIV tat genotyping were available for 33 children. Mean age was 19.4 (SD 7.1) months, mean log VL was 5.9 copies/mL (SD 0.1) in plasma and 3.9 copies/mL (SD 0.9) in CSF. The prevalence of TatCC was 27 %. Z-scores for BSID-III subtests ranged from −1.3 to −3.9. TatCC was not associated with higher BSID-III z-scores. Conclusions The hypothesis of milder neuropathology in individuals infected with HIV TatCS was not confirmed in this small cohort of Malawian children. Future studies of tat genotype and neurocognitive disorder should be performed using larger sample sizes and investigate if this finding is due to differences in HIV neuropathogenesis between children and adults.
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48. Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17

Author: Aniruddha Deshpande, Molly K Miller-Petrie, Paulina A Lindstedt, Mathew M Baumann, Kimberly B Johnson, Brigette F Blacker, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Ahmed Abualhasan, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mohsen Afarideh, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Mehdi Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Anwar E Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ali S Akanda, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Samiah Alam, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Turki M Alanzi, James Albright, Ammar Albujeer, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Animut Alebel, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Muhammad Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ali Almasi, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Saeed Amini, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Benny Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Jalal Arabloo, Hany Mohamed Amin Aref, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Krishna K Aryal, Afsaneh Arzani, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Daniel Asmelash, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Sachin R Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Shally Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Andrew S Azman, Ebrahim Babaee, Alaa Badawi, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Aleksandra Barac, Miguel A Barboza, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Vo Dinh Bay, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Mahya Beheshti, Meysam Behzadifar, Masoud Behzadifar, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Michelle L Bell, Derrick A. 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El-Jaafary, Ziad El-Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Aisha Elsharkawy, Shymaa Enany, Daniel Adane Endalew, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Arash Etemadi, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Mohammad Fareed, Andre Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Alebachew Fasil Fasil, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L. Feigin, Wubalem Fekadu, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Carsten Flohr, Nataliya A. Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Joseph Jon Frostad, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M Gad, Gregory M Garcia, Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf, Tiffany K Gill, Paramjit Singh Gill, Themba G Ginindza, Alem Girmay, Zemichael Gizaw, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Alessandra C Goulart, Ayman Grada, Manfred S Green, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Harish Chander Gugnani, Davide Guido, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Giang Hai Ha, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Dessalegn H Haile, Michael Tamene Haile, Brian J. Hall, Samer Hamidi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Hamidreza Haririan, Ninuk Hariyani, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Md. Mehedi Hasan, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, Thomas R Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian I Hollerich, Praveen Hoogar, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Guoqing Hu, Ayesha Humayun, Syed Ather Hussain, Mamusha Aman A Hussen, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rebecca Q Ivers, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Amir Jalali, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Tanuj Kanchan, André Karch, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Gebrehiwot G Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Gbenga A. Kayode, Mihiretu M Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Amir M Khater, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Mohammad Khazaei, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Sezer Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sonali Kochhar, Tufa Kolola, Hamidreza Komaki, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Nuworza Kugbey, Pushpendra Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Aparna Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Savita Lasrado, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Mostafa Leili, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Aubrey J Levine, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Jaifred Christian F Lopez, Platon D Lopukhov, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, D.R. 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Mohammad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Hassen Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H Mokdad, Yoshan Moodley, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Paula Moraga, Linda Morales, Abbas Mosapour, Jonathan F. Mosser, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Miliva Mozaffor, Sandra B Munro, Moses K. Muriithi, Christopher J L Murray, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Gurudatta Naik, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W. 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Singh, Ambrish Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Eirini Skiadaresi, David L Smith, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Anton Sokhan, Joan B Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Bineyam Taye, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Akhil Soman ThekkePurakkal, Nihal Thomas, Robert L Thompson, Alan J Thomson, Roman Topor-Madry, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A Uthman, Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu, Pascual R Valdez, Santosh Varughese, Yousef Veisani, Francesco S Violante, Sebastian Vollmer, Feleke Gebremeskel W/hawariat, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell Taylor Wallin, Yuan-Pang Wang, Yafeng Wang, Kinley Wangdi, Daniel J Weiss, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Ronny Westerman, Taweewat Wiangkham, Kirsten E Wiens, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Tomohide Yamada, Mehdi Yaseri, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Alex Yeshaneh, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Hebat-Allah Salah A Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Siddhesh Zadey, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Heather J Zar, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Simon I Hay, and Robert C Reiner, Jr
Subjects: Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract: Summary: Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2020
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49. The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis

Author: Aniruddha Deshpande, Molly K Miller-Petrie, Paulina A Lindstedt, Mathew M Baumann, Kimberly B Johnson, Brigette F Blacker, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Ayenew Negesse Abejie, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Ahmed Abualhasan, Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi, Abdu A Adamu, Oladimeji M Adebayo, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Tara Ballav Adhikari, Mohsen Afarideh, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Mehdi Ahmadi, Keivan Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Anwar E Ahmed, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, Ali S Akanda, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al-Aly, Samiah Alam, Noore Alam, Genet Melak Alamene, Turki M Alanzi, James Albright, Ammar Albujeer, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal, Animut Alebel, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Muhammad Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ali Almasi, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk, Saeed Amini, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Ansariadi Ansariadi, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Benny Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Jalal Arabloo, Hany Mohamed Amin Aref, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Amit Arora, Krishna K Aryal, Afsaneh Arzani, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Daniel Asmelash, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Seyyede Masoume Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Sachin R Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Shally Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Andrew S Azman, Ebrahim Babaee, Alaa Badawi, Mojtaba Bagherzadeh, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Aleksandra Barac, Miguel A Barboza, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Sanjay Basu, Vo Dinh Bay, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Mahya Beheshti, Meysam Behzadifar, Masoud Behzadifar, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Michelle L Bell, Derrick A. Bennett, Habib Benzian, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Robert S Bernstein, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Somayeh Bohlouli, Soufiane Boufous, Oliver J Brady, Andrey Nikolaevich Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Gabrielle B Britton, Alexandria Brown, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Luis Alberto Cámera, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon, Jorge Cano, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Felix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Ester Cerin, Binaya Chalise, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Ken Lee Chin, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Natalie Maria Cormier, Vera Marisa Costa, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Abel Fekadu Fekadu Dadi, Tukur Dahiru, Saad M A Dahlawi, Rakhi Dandona, Lalit Dandona, Anh Kim Dang, Farah Daoud, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ahmad Daryani, Jai K Das, Rajat Das Gupta, Aditya Prasad Dash, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Nicole Davis Weaver, Fernando Pio De la Hoz, Jan-Walter De Neve, Dereje Bayissa Demissie, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Assefa Desalew, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Preeti Dhillon, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Diaz, Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu, Hoa Thi Do, Christiane Dolecek, Kerrie E Doyle, Eleonora Dubljanin, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Hisham Atan Edinur, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Nevine El Nahas, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Hala Rashad Elhabashy, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Ziad El-Khatib, Hajer Elkout, Aisha Elsharkawy, Shymaa Enany, Daniel Adane Endalew, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Arash Etemadi, Oluchi Ezekannagha, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Mohammad Fareed, Andre Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Alebachew Fasil Fasil, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Valery L. Feigin, Wubalem Fekadu, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Carsten Flohr, Nataliya A. Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Richard Charles Franklin, Joseph Jon Frostad, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M Gad, Gregory M Garcia, Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf, Tiffany K Gill, Paramjit Singh Gill, Themba G Ginindza, Alem Girmay, Zemichael Gizaw, Amador Goodridge, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart, Alessandra C Goulart, Ayman Grada, Manfred S Green, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Harish Chander Gugnani, Davide Guido, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Yuming Guo, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Giang Hai Ha, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Dessalegn H Haile, Michael Tamene Haile, Brian J. Hall, Samer Hamidi, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Hamidreza Haririan, Ninuk Hariyani, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Md. Mehedi Hasan, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Desta Haftu Hayelom, Mohamed I Hegazy, Behzad Heibati, Behnam Heidari, Delia Hendrie, Andualem Henok, Claudiu Herteliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hagos Degefa de Hidru, Thomas R Hird, Chi Linh Hoang, Gillian I Hollerich, Praveen Hoogar, Naznin Hossain, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Guoqing Hu, Ayesha Humayun, Syed Ather Hussain, Mamusha Aman A Hussen, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena D. Ilic, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Usman Iqbal, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Rebecca Q Ivers, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Amir Jalali, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S Ji, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Tanuj Kanchan, André Karch, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye, Gebrehiwot G Kassa, Getachew Mullu Kassa, Gbenga A. Kayode, Mihiretu M Kebede, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Yousef Saleh Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Rovshan Khalilov, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Junaid Khan, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Khaled Khatab, Mona M Khater, Amir M Khater, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Mohammad Khazaei, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Sezer Kisa, Adnan Kisa, Sonali Kochhar, Tufa Kolola, Hamidreza Komaki, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Nuworza Kugbey, Pushpendra Kumar, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Aparna Lal, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Hilton Lam, Faris Hasan Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Savita Lasrado, Georgy Lebedev, Paul H Lee, Kate E LeGrand, Mostafa Leili, Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Aubrey J Levine, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Shai Linn, Shiwei Liu, Jaifred Christian F Lopez, Platon D Lopukhov, Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek, D.R. Mahadeshwara Prasad, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Narayan B. Mahotra, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Gabriel Martinez, Santi Martini, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Manu Raj Mathur, Benjamin K Mayala, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Birhanu Geta Meharie, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Kala M Mehta, Teferi Mekonnen, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Peter T N Memiah, Ziad A Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, Seid Tiku Mereta, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Mestrovic, Workua Mekonnen Metekiya, Bartosz Miazgowski, Ted R Miller, GK Mini, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Bahram Mohajer, Yousef Mohammad, Dara K. Mohammad, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Abdu Mohammed, Hassen Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H Mokdad, Yoshan Moodley, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Paula Moraga, Linda Morales, Abbas Mosapour, Jonathan F. Mosser, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Miliva Mozaffor, Sandra B Munro, Moses K. Muriithi, Christopher J L Murray, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Saravanan Muthupandian, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Gurudatta Naik, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe, Ionut Negoi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Solomon Gedlu Nigatu, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Marzieh Nojomi, Ole F Norheim, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Bogdan Oancea, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In-Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank B Osei, Mayowa O Owolabi, Mahesh P A, Jagadish Rao. Padubidri, Smita Pakhale, Adrian Pana, Eun-Kee Park, Sangram Kishor Patel, Ashish Pathak, Ajay Patle, Kebreab Paulos, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Konrad Pesudovs, Hai Quang Pham, David M Pigott, Thomas Pilgrim, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Mario Poljak, Ian Pollock, Maarten J Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Sergio I Prada, Liliana Preotescu, Hedley Quintana, Navid Rabiee, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Siavash Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Puja C Rao, Davide Rasella, Goura Kishor Rath, Salman Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Wasiq Faraz Rawasia, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Vishnu Renjith, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Seyed Mohammad Riahi, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer Rickard, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Anas M Saad, Siamak Sabour, Ehsan Sadeghi, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Yahya Safari, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Ahsan Saleem, Hosni Salem, Marwa Rashad Salem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Itamar S Santos, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Mehdi Sayyah, Alyssa N Sbarra, Lauren E Schaeffer, David C Schwebel, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván-Mori, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Amira A Shaheen, Izza Shahid, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali S Shalash, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mohammed Shannawaz, Kiomars Sharafi, Rajesh Sharma, Aziz Sheikh, B Suresh Kumar Shetty, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, K M Shivakumar, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Virendra Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Balbir Bagicha Singh Singh, Jasvinder A. Singh, Ambrish Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Eirini Skiadaresi, David L Smith, Adauto Martins Soares Filho, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Anton Sokhan, Joan B Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Takahiro Tabuchi, Degena Bahrey Tadesse, Ingan Ukur Tarigan, Bineyam Taye, Yonatal Mesfin Tefera, Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi, Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin, Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Akhil Soman ThekkePurakkal, Nihal Thomas, Robert L Thompson, Alan J Thomson, Roman Topor-Madry, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Muhammad Shariq Usman, Olalekan A Uthman, Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu, Pascual R Valdez, Santosh Varughese, Yousef Veisani, Francesco S Violante, Sebastian Vollmer, Feleke Gebremeskel W/hawariat, Yasir Waheed, Mitchell Taylor Wallin, Yuan-Pang Wang, Yafeng Wang, Kinley Wangdi, Daniel J Weiss, Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel, Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh, Ronny Westerman, Taweewat Wiangkham, Kirsten E Wiens, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Getasew Taddesse Worku, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Tomohide Yamada, Mehdi Yaseri, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Alex Yeshaneh, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Hebat-Allah Salah A Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Siddhesh Zadey, Telma Zahirian Moghadam, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Heather J Zar, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Yunquan Zhang, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Yves Miel H Zuniga, Simon I Hay, and Robert C Reiner, Jr
Subjects: Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract: Summary: Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Published: 2020
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50. Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach.

Author: Kebede Deribe, Hope Simpson, Jorge Cano, David M Pigott, Nicole Davis Weaver, Elizabeth A Cromwell, Oliver J Brady, Rachel L Pullan, Abdisalan M Noor, Daniel Argaw, Christopher J L Murray, Simon J Brooker, Simon I Hay, Melanie J Newport, and Gail Davey
Subjects: Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine, RC955-962, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract: BackgroundPodoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution.Methods and findingsWe systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status. There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed.ConclusionThe global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.
Published: 2019
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