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246 results on '"Eliseev, Alexey V."'

4. Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)

Author

Akperov, Mirseid, primary, Eliseev, Alexey V., additional, Rinke, Annette, additional, Mokhov, Igor I., additional, Semenov, Vladimir A., additional, Dembitskaya, Mariya, additional, Matthes, Heidrun, additional, Adakudlu, Muralidhar, additional, Boberg, Fredrik, additional, Christensen, Jens H., additional, Dethloff, Klaus, additional, Fettweis, Xavier, additional, Gutjahr, Oliver, additional, Heinemann, Günther, additional, Koenigk, Torben, additional, Sein, Dmitry, additional, Laprise, René, additional, Mottram, Ruth, additional, Nikiéma, Oumarou, additional, Sobolowski, Stefan, additional, Winger, Katja, additional, and Zhang, Wenxin, additional

Published
2023
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7. Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

Author

Zickfeld, Kirsten, Eby, Michael, Weaver, Andrew J, Alexander, Kaitlin, Crespin, Elisabeth, Edwards, Neil R, Eliseev, Alexey V, Feulner, Georg, Fichefet, Thierry, Forest, Chris E, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Goosse, Hugues, Holden, Philip B, Joos, Fortunat, Kawamiya, Michio, Kicklighter, David, Kienert, Hendrik, Matsumoto, Katsumi, Mokhov, Igor I, Monier, Erwan, Olsen, Steffen M, Pedersen, Jens OP, Perrette, Mahe, Philippon-Berthier, Gwenaëlle, Ridgwell, Andy, Schlosser, Adam, Schneider Von Deimling, Thomas, Shaffer, Gary, Sokolov, Andrei, Spahni, Renato, Steinacher, Marco, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Tokos, Kathy S, Yoshimori, Masakazu, Zeng, Ning, and Zhao, Fang

Subjects
Climate Action, Carbon cycle, Climate change, Climate prediction, Climate models, Coupled models, Model comparison, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Geomatic Engineering, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. MostEMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs forRCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination ofCO2 emissions in allEMICs.Restoration of atmosphericCO2 fromRCPto preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.

Published
2013

12. Future projections of wind energy potentials in the arctic for the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario from regional climate models (Arctic-CORDEX)

Author

Akperov, Mirseid, Eliseev, Alexey V., Rinke, Annette, Mokhov, Igor I., Semenov, Vladimir A., Dembitskaya, Mariya, Matthes, Heidrun, Adakudlu, Muralidhar, Boberg, Fredrik, Christensen, Jens H., Dethloff, Klaus, Fettweis, Xavier, Gutjahr, Oliver, Heinemann, Günther, Koenigk, Torben, Sein, Dmitry, Laprise, René, Mottram, Ruth, Nikiéma, Oumarou, Sobolowski, Stefan, Winger, Katja, Zhang, Wenxin, Akperov, Mirseid, Eliseev, Alexey V., Rinke, Annette, Mokhov, Igor I., Semenov, Vladimir A., Dembitskaya, Mariya, Matthes, Heidrun, Adakudlu, Muralidhar, Boberg, Fredrik, Christensen, Jens H., Dethloff, Klaus, Fettweis, Xavier, Gutjahr, Oliver, Heinemann, Günther, Koenigk, Torben, Sein, Dmitry, Laprise, René, Mottram, Ruth, Nikiéma, Oumarou, Sobolowski, Stefan, Winger, Katja, and Zhang, Wenxin

Abstract

The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) of the 21st century under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The multi-model mean reveals an increase of seasonal WPD over the Arctic in the future decades. WPD variability across a range of temporal scales is projected to increase over the Arctic. The signal amplifies by the end of 21st century. Future changes in the frequency of wind speeds at 100 m not useable for wind energy production (wind speeds below 4 m/s or above 25 m/s) has been analyzed. The RCM ensemble simulates a more frequent occurrence of 100 m non-usable wind speeds for the wind-turbines over Scandinavia and selected land areas in Alaska, northern Russia and Canada. In contrast, non-usable wind speeds decrease over large parts of Eastern Siberia and in northern Alaska. Thus, our results indicate increased potential of the Arctic for the development and production of wind energy. Bias corrected and not corrected near-surface wind speed and WPD changes have been compared with each other. It has been found that both show the same sign of future change, but differ in magnitude of these changes. The role of sea-ice retreat and vegetation expansion in the Arctic in future on near-surface wind speed variability has been also assessed. Surface roughness through sea-ice and vegetation changes may significantly impact on WPD variability in the Arctic.

Published
2023
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17. A Relationship between Changes of Surface Air and Sea Floor Temperatures at the Arctic Shelf from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 Data.

Author

Malakhova, Valentina V. and Eliseev, Alexey V.

Subjects
*OCEAN bottom, *GREENHOUSE gases, *ATMOSPHERIC temperature, *TEMPERATURE, *SURFACE temperature
Abstract

The sensitivity of seafloor temperature  T B  to the warming of surface air temperature  T a  is examined for 1850–2300, based on simulations with five models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 ensemble and driven by a scenario with high anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. In this historical period (until 2015), sensitivity coefficients  α = Δ T B / Δ T a  (Δ  indicates changes relative to the pre-industrial period) were typically ≤0.12 for annual means and up to 0.43 in summer. However, during the same period in the Barents Sea sector, the sensitivity coefficients were as large as 0.6 in summer. For summer, the obtained results are consistent with the limited measurements available for the Siberian shelf. In future, sensitivity coefficients will increase markedly, and  α ≥ 0.7  will become common for the part of the Arctic shelf that becomes ice-free in summer. Our results have implications for estimating the future thermal state of subsea sediments, as well as for oceanic biota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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25. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, Williamson, Phil, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B.

Published
2021

26. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Canadell, Josep G., Monteiro, Pedro M.S., Costa, Marcos H., Cunha, Leticia Cotrim Da, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Henson, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii A., Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Hervé, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garçon, Véronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Quéré, Corinne Le, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, Macdougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O’sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallée, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A.G., I.Seneviratne, Sonia, Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik H., Williamson, Phil, Brovkin, Victor, Feely, Richard A., Lebehot, Alice D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Aptel, Florence, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2021

27. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B., Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, Williamson, Phil, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B., Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, and Williamson, Phil

Published
2021

32. Metastable decomposition of high-dimensional meteorological data with gaps

Author

Horenko, Illia, Dolaptchiev, Stamen I., Eliseev, Alexey V., Mokhov, Igor I., and Klein, Rupert

Subjects
Metastability -- Environmental aspects, Markov processes -- Models, Meteorological research, Earth sciences, Science and technology
Abstract

This paper presents an extension of the recently developed method for simultaneous dimension reduction and metastability analysis of high-dimensional time series. The modified approach is based on a combination of ensembles of hidden Markov models (HMMs) with state-specific principal component analysis (PCA) in extended space (guaranteeing that the overall dynamics will be Markovian). The main advantage of the modified method is its ability to deal with the gaps in the high-dimensional observation data. The proposed method allows for (i) the separation of the data according to the metastable states, (ii) a hierarchical decomposition of these sets into metastable substates, and (iii) calculation of the state-specific extended empirical orthogonal functions simultaneously with identification of the underlying Markovian dynamics switching between those metastable substates. The authors discuss the introduced model assumptions, explain how the quality of the resulting reduced representation can be assessed, and show what kind of additional insight into the underlying dynamics such a reduced Markovian representation can give (e.g., in the form of transition probabilities, statistical weights, mean first exit times, and mean first passage times). The performance of the new method analyzing 500-hPa geopotential height fields [daily mean values from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) dataset for a period of 44 winters] is demonstrated and the results are compared with information gained from a numerically expensive but assumption-free method (Wavelets--PCA), and the identified metastable states are interpreted w.r.t, the blocking events in the atmosphere.

Published
2008

33. Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

Author

MacDougall, Andrew H., Frölicher, Thomas L., Jones, Chris D., Rogelj, Joeri, Matthews, H. Damon, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Arora, Vivek K., Barrett, Noah J., Brovkin, Victor, Burger, Friedrich A., Eby, Micheal, Eliseev, Alexey V., Hajima, Tomohiro, Holden, Philip B., Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich, Koven, Charles, Mengis, Nadine, Menviel, Laurie, Michou, Martine, Mokhov, Igor I., Oka, Akira, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Shaffer, Gary, Sokolov, Andrei, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Tjiputra, Jerry, Wiltshire, Andrew, Ziehn, Tilo, and Commission of the European Communities

Subjects
ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, CLIMATE-CHANGE, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, 530 Physics, 04 Earth Sciences, 05 Environmental Sciences, OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, INTERMEDIATE COMPLEXITY, 06 Biological Sciences, ENERGY, ATMOSPHERIC LIFETIME, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, CARBON-CYCLE, PART II, DIOXIDE
Abstract

The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potential magnitude and sign of ZEC, in addition to the processes that underlie this metric. A total of 18 Earth system models of both full and intermediate complexity participated in ZECMIP. All models conducted an experiment where atmospheric CO2 concentration increases exponentially until 1000 PgC has been emitted. Thereafter emissions are set to zero and models are configured to allow free evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Many models conducted additional second-priority simulations with different cumulative emission totals and an alternative idealized emissions pathway with a gradual transition to zero emissions. The inter-model range of ZEC 50 years after emissions cease for the 1000 PgC experiment is −0.36 to 0.29 ∘C, with a model ensemble mean of −0.07 ∘C, median of −0.05 ∘C, and standard deviation of 0.19 ∘C. Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially. Analysis shows that both the carbon uptake by the ocean and the terrestrial biosphere are important for counteracting the warming effect from the reduction in ocean heat uptake in the decades after emissions cease. This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.

Published
2020
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40. Synthesis and mass spectrometry studies of branched oxime ether libraries. Mapping the substitution motif via linker stability and fragmentation pattern

Author

Nazarpack-Kandlousy, Noureddin, Nelen, Marina I., Goral, Vasiliy, and Eliseev, Alexey V.

Subjects
Chemistry, Organic -- Research, Ethers -- Physiological aspects, Aldehydes -- Physiological aspects, Ketones -- Physiological aspects, Amines -- Physiological aspects, Biological sciences, Chemistry
Abstract

Research has been conducted on the oxime ether chemistry. The reactions between aldehydes and ketones with the scaffolds which contain various types of aminooxy groups have been investigated and the results indicate that these reactions can lead to the formation of all expected components in the mixtures produced by the scaffolds and the substituents.

Published
2002

42. Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>

Author

MacDougall, Andrew H., primary, Frölicher, Thomas L., additional, Jones, Chris D., additional, Rogelj, Joeri, additional, Matthews, H. Damon, additional, Zickfeld, Kirsten, additional, Arora, Vivek K., additional, Barrett, Noah J., additional, Brovkin, Victor, additional, Burger, Friedrich A., additional, Eby, Micheal, additional, Eliseev, Alexey V., additional, Hajima, Tomohiro, additional, Holden, Philip B., additional, Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich, additional, Koven, Charles, additional, Mengis, Nadine, additional, Menviel, Laurie, additional, Michou, Martine, additional, Mokhov, Igor I., additional, Oka, Akira, additional, Schwinger, Jörg, additional, Séférian, Roland, additional, Shaffer, Gary, additional, Sokolov, Andrei, additional, Tachiiri, Kaoru, additional, Tjiputra, Jerry, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew, additional, and Ziehn, Tilo, additional

Published
2020
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44. Subsea permafrost and associated methane hydrates: how long will they survive in the future?

Author

Malakhova, Valentina V. and Eliseev, Alexey V.

Subjects
*METHANE hydrates, *PERMAFROST, *ICE sheets, *HYDROSTATIC pressure, *INTERNAL structure of the Earth, *HEAT flux
Abstract

We performed simulations with SMILES (the Sediment Model Invented for Long-tErm Simulations) for 100 kyr in future forced by the output of an Earth System model with internally calculated ice sheets. This Earth System model was driven by idealised scenarios of CO2 emissions (applied at time instant t = 0 loosely corresponding to common era year 1950) and by changes of the parameters of the Earth orbit. The simulations are carried out with different values of the heat flux from the Earth interior. We neglected possible impact of hydrostatic pressure changes due to future sea level changes on freeze/thaw temperature and on thermodynamic stability of methane hydrates. We found that at the outer shelf permafrost disappears either before t = 0 or during few centuries in future. In contrast, for the middle and shallow parts of the shelf, in the CO2-emission forced runs the subsea permafrost survives, at least, for 5 kyr after the emission onset or even for much longer. Without an applied greenhouse forcing permafrost exists here at least until 22 kyr after the CO2 emission onset or even survives till the end of the model runs. At the same parts of the shelf, methane hydrate stability zone disappears not earlier that at t = 3 kyr after the CO2 emission onset, but, typically, it survives until 11 to 41 kyr after this onset. Time instants of local extinction of both the subsea permafrost and methane hydrates stability zone (MHSZ) are negatively correlated with the geothermal heat flux because of both permafrost thaw and MHSZ shrinking basically occurs from bottom. However, thaw from the top and the deepening of the MHSZ table is basically determined by the applied CO2 forcing scenario; this is more important for the permafrost than for MHSZ. In general, the CO2-induced warming in our simulations is able to enhance the pan-Arctic subsea permafrost loss severalfold during 1 kyr after the emissions onset, but is less instrumental for the respective MHSZ loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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46. Enzyme-controlled molecular recognition: selective targeting of trypsin with a substrate-inhibitor supramolecular complex

Author

Rudra, Sonali and Eliseev, Alexey V.

Subjects
Enzymes -- Research, Molecular dynamics -- Research, Trypsin -- Research, Enzyme inhibitors -- Research, Chemistry
Abstract

A novel enzyme-controlled molecular recognition system that forms a noncovalent complex with 1,4-diamidinobenzene was described. The synthetic host carrier may be used as a delivery system that discharges the enzyme inhibitor at the immediate location of its action providing precision of targeting at the molecular level. Experimental results showed that the host increases the selectivity of the inhibitor action. This inhibitory effect of 1,4-diamidinobenzene apparently results in deactivation of trypsin with respect to the host compound and any other potential substrate.

Published
1998

47. ChAP 1.0: a stationary tropospheric sulfur cycle for Earth system models of intermediate complexity.

Author

Eliseev, Alexey V., Gizatullin, Rustam D., and Timazhev, Alexandr V.

Subjects
*SULFUR cycle, *CHEMICAL processes, *AIR pollution, *TROPOSPHERIC chemistry, *SULFUR dioxide, *TROPOSPHERE, *INFORMATION resources
Abstract

A stationary, computationally efficient scheme ChAP 1.0 (Chemical and Aerosol Processes, version 1.0) for the sulfur cycle in the troposphere is developed. This scheme is designed for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). The scheme accounts for sulfur dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, its deposition to the surface, oxidation to sulfates, and dry and wet deposition of sulfates on the surface. The calculations with the scheme are forced by anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere for 1850–2000 adopted from the CMIP5 dataset and by the ERA-Interim meteorology assuming that natural sources of sulfur into the atmosphere remain unchanged during this period. The ChAP output is compared to changes of the tropospheric sulfur cycle simulations with the CMIP5 data, with the IPCC TAR ensemble, and with the ACCMIP phase II simulations. In addition, in regions of strong anthropogenic sulfur pollution, ChAP results are compared to other data, such as the CAMS reanalysis, EMEP MSC-W, and individual model simulations. Our model reasonably reproduces characteristics of the tropospheric sulfur cycle known from these information sources. In our scheme, about half of the emitted sulfur dioxide is deposited to the surface, and the rest is oxidised into sulfates. In turn, sulfates are mostly removed from the atmosphere by wet deposition. The lifetimes of the sulfur dioxide and sulfates in the atmosphere are close to 1 and 5 d, respectively. The limitations of the scheme are acknowledged, and the prospects for future development are figured out. Despite its simplicity, ChAP may be successfully used to simulate anthropogenic sulfur pollution in the atmosphere at coarse spatial scales and timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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48. Molecular recognition of nucleotides, nucleosides, and sugars by aminocyclodextrins

Author

Eliseev, Alexey V. and Schneider, Hans-Jorg

Subjects
Cyclodextrins -- Research, Nucleotides -- Analysis, Chemistry
Abstract

Aminocyclodextrins such as beta-cyclodextrin, which contains two or seven aminomethyl groups in the 6-location, act as polytopic receptors for nucleotides. Beta-cyclodextrin identifies guest compounds based on nucleobasic nature, sugar type and phosphate group positions. The number of hydrogen bonds between protonated amine and sugar and low binding values with deoxyribose derivatives imply that hydrogen bonds are vital for sugar complexation.

Published
1994

49. The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model

Author

Totz, Sonja Juliana, Eliseev, Alexey V., Petri, Stefan (Dr.), Flechsig, Michael, Caesar, Levke, Petoukhov, Vladimir (Prof. Dr.), and Coumou, Dim (Dr.)

Subjects
Physics::Space Physics, Institut für Physik und Astronomie, ddc:530, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Physics::Geophysics
Abstract

Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0. The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower troposphere mass flux show good results in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the model tends to produce too-weak zonal-mean zonal winds and a too-narrow Hadley circulation. We discuss possible reasons for these model biases as well as planned future model improvements and applications.

Published
2018

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