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The movement of large, slow-moving, deep-seated landslides is regulated principally by changes in pore-water pressure in the slope. In urban areas, drastic reorganization of the surface and subsurface hydrology—for example, associated with roads, housings or storm drainage—may alter the subsurface hydrology and ultimately the slope stability. Yet our understanding of the influence of slope urbanization on the dynamics of landslides remains elusive. Here we combined satellite and (historical) aerial images to quantify how 70 years of hillslope urbanization changed the seasonal, annual and multi-decadal dynamics of a large, slow-moving landslide located in the tropical environment of the city of Bukavu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Analysis of week-to-week landslide motion over the past 4.5 years reveals that it is closely tied to pore-water pressure changes, pointing to interacting influences from climate, weathering, tectonics and urban development on the landslide dynamics. Over decadal timescales, we find that the sprawl of urbanized areas led to the acceleration of a large section of the landslide, which was probably driven by self-reinforcing feedbacks involving slope movement, rerouting of surface water flows and pipe ruptures. As hillslopes in many tropical cities are being urbanized at an accelerating pace, better understanding how anthropogenic activity influences surface processes will be vital to effective risk planning and mitigation.

Tropical mountainous regions are often identified as landslide hotspots with growing population pressure. Anthropogenic factors are assumed to play a role in the occurrence of landslides in these densely populated regions, yet the relative importance of these human-induced factors remains poorly documented. In this work, we aim to explore the impact of forest cover dynamics, roads and mining activities on the characteristics and causes of landslides in the rift flank west of Lake Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo). To do so, we compile a comprehensive multi-temporal inventory of 2730 landslides. The landslides are of different types and are grouped into five categories that are adapted to study the impact of human activities on slope stability: old (pre-1950s) and recent (post-1950s) deep-seated landslides, shallow landslides, landslides associated with mining and landslides associated with road construction. We analyse the landslides according to this classification protocol via frequency–area statistics, frequency ratio distribution and logistic regression susceptibility assessment. We find that natural factors contributing to the cause of recent and old deep-seated landslides were either different or changed over time. Under similar topographic conditions, shallow landslides are more frequent, but of a smaller size, in areas where deforestation has occurred since the 1950s. We attribute this size reduction to the decrease in regolith cohesion due to forest loss, which allows for a smaller minimum critical area for landsliding. In areas that were already deforested in the 1950s, shallow landslides are less frequent, larger and occur on less steep slopes. This suggests a combined role between regolith availability and soil management practices that influence erosion and water infiltration. Mining activities increase the odds of landsliding. Landslides associated with mining and roads are larger than shallow landslides but smaller than the recent deep-seated instabilities, and they are controlled by environmental factors that are not present under natural conditions. Our analysis demonstrates the role of human activities on the occurrence of landslides in the Lake Kivu region. Overall, it highlights the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability characteristics and distribution patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Our work also highlights the importance of using landslide classification criteria adapted to the context of the Anthropocene.

Tropical mountainous regions are often identified as landslide hotspots with particularly vulnerable populations. Anthropogenic factors are assumed to play a role in the occurrence of landslides in these populated regions, yet the relative importance of these human-induced factors remains poorly documented. In this work, we aim to explore the impact of forest cover dynamics, roads and mining activities on the occurrence of landslides in the Rift flank west of Lake Kivu in the DR Congo. To do so, we compile an inventory of 2730 landslides using © Google Earth imagery, high resolution topographic data, historical aerial photographs from the 1950’s and extensive field surveys. We identify old and recent (post 1950’s) landslides, making a distinction between deep-seated and shallow landslides, road landslides and mining landslides. We find that susceptibility patterns and area distributions are different between old and recent deep-seated landslides, which shows that natural factors contributing to their occurrence were either different or changed over time. Observed shallow landslides are recent processes that all occurred in the past two decades. The analysis of their susceptibility indicates that forest dynamics and the presence of roads play a key role in their regional distribution pattern. Under similar topographic conditions, shallow landslides are more frequent, but of smaller size, in areas where deforestation has occurred since the 1950’s as compared to shallow landslides in forest areas, i.e. in natural environments. We attribute this size reduction to the decrease of regolith cohesion due to forest loss, which allows for a smaller minimum critical area for landsliding. In areas that were already deforested in 1950’s, shallow landslides are less frequent, larger, and occur on less steep slopes. This suggests a combined role between regolith availability and soil management practices that influence erosion and water infiltration. Mining activities increase the odds of landsliding. Mining and road landslides are larger than shallow landslides but smaller than the recent deep-seated instabilities. The susceptibility models calibrated for shallow and deep-seated landslides do not predict them well, highlighting that they are controlled by environmental factors that are not present under natural conditions. Our analysis demonstrates the role of human activities on the occurrence of landslides in the Lake Kivu region. Overall, it highlights the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability characteristics and distribution patterns in regions under anthropogenic pressure. Our work also highlights the importance of considering the timing of landslides over a multi-decadal period of observation.

Tropical mountainous regions are often identified as landslide hotspots with particularly vulnerable populations. Whereas both natural (e.g., rainfall, lithology) and anthropogenic (e.g., deforestation, mining) factors are expected to be involved in landslide occurrence, the relative importance of such factors remains poorly documented. The objective of this study is to understand the role played by natural and anthropogenic factors in the occurrence of landslides in the Rift Flank west of Lake Kivu in DR Congo. First, we inventoried 2856 landslides of various types using Google Earth imagery, high resolution topographic data, historical aerial photographs from1950’sand intense field surveys. We made a distinction between old and recent deep-seated landslides, shallow landslides and mining-related landslides. The difference in susceptibility patterns and in size distributions between old and recent deep-seated landslides indicates that natural factors contributing to their occurrence were either different or changed over time. The shallow landslides are all recent. The susceptibility analysis shows that their regional pattern is mainly controlled by forest dynamics and the presence of roads. The occurrence of shallow landslides in forest areas, i.e. in natural environments, strongly increases with slope gradient. In areas with similar topographic conditions where deforestation has occurred since the 1950’s, shallow landslides are more frequent, but of smaller size. This size reduction is attributed to the decrease of regolith cohesion due to forest loss, which allows a smaller minimum critical area for landsliding. In areas that were already deforested in 1950’s, shallow landslides are less frequent, larger, and occur on less steep slopes. This suggests a combined role between regolith availability and soil management practices that influence erosion and water infiltration. Landslides associated with mining activities are larger than shallow landslides but smaller than the recent deep-seated instabilities. They are not well predicted by the susceptibility models, showing that they respond to environmental factors that are not present under natural conditions. This research highlights the importance of human activities on the occurrence of landslides and the need to consider this context when studying hillslope instability patterns in regions under anthropic pressure. Keywords: landslide processes, multi-temporal inventory, historical deforestation, mining and quarrying, susceptibility assessment, Africa

While the behaviour of slow-moving landslides – response to seasonal precipitation, seismic shaking, etc. – is well described in natural mountainous environments, little is known on the influence of urbanisation on their dynamics. Yet, gradual urbanisation of hillslopes is commonplace in the outskirts of many cities of the tropics. Typically anarchic, construction on previously undisturbed slopes often initiates or enhances landslide activity, rapidly increasing the number of people exposed to landslide hazard. Aiming at studying how landslides respond to their progressive urbanisation, we here present a detailed analysis of the dynamics of a large, thousand-year-old slow-moving landslide located in the rapidly expanding city of Bukavu (eastern DR Congo). This slope failure developed in highly weathered lava layers hosts today more than 80 000 inhabitants; for many affected by incessant destruction of infrastructures and housing.We used 4 years of temporally dense 3D kinematic data from satellite interferometry (MSBAS 3D), pixel tracking on satellite and Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) orthomosaics and aerial photograph analysis to examine the relationships between urbanisation, landslide activity and rainfall and seismic patterns. We found a closely tied relationship between subsurface pore-water pressure changes and surface velocities. Seasonal rainfalls are driving the kinematics of the landslide at the weekly timescale, despite the large (~30-100 m) depth of the landslide. Analysing landslide dynamics over the last 60 years, we observed an increased activity over a zone of the landslide that will rapidly become the fastest landslide unit. This destabilisation occurred in the ‘90s, alongside an intensification of the (informal) urbanisation of the hillslope, at a time when region’s violent conflicts and insecurity drove important rural-urban migration. Still the most active today, this landslide unit moves at paces of 0.5-3 meters per year, causing significant and persistent damages to infrastructures. We here argue that changes in water runoff, concentration and infiltration due to the anarchic and poorly maintained urban extension is modifying the long-term behaviour of the landside, rather than overloading due to buildings (often light and wooden structures) and infrastructures. The very quick response to pore pressure changes could also be associated to the dense urban fabric, even though the tropical characteristics of this environment (wet-dry seasons, high rainfall, very high weathering) should not be ignored. Our analysis help improve the evaluation of landslide hazard and mitigation in the area, but also across the other many cities of the tropics where similar environmental and societal conditions are met. These findings also have implications for our understanding of landslide dynamics and how humans are interfering with landscape evolution.

Determining rainfall thresholds for landsliding is crucial in landslide hazard evaluation and early warning system development, yet challenging in data-scarce regions. Using freely available satellite rainfall data in a reproducible automated procedure, the bootstrap-based frequentist threshold approach, coupling antecedent rainfall (AR) and landslide susceptibility data as proposed by Monsieurs et al., has proved to provide a physically meaningful regional AR threshold equation in the western branch of the East African Rift. However, previous studies could only rely on global- and continental-scale rainfall and susceptibility data. Here, we use newly available regional-scale susceptibility data to test the robustness of the method to different data configurations. This leads us to improve the threshold method through using stratified data selection to better exploit the data distribution over the whole range of susceptibility. In addition, we discuss the effect of outliers in small data sets on the estimation of parameter uncertainties and the interest of not using the bootstrap technique in such cases. Thus improved, the method effectiveness shows strongly reduced sensitivity to the used susceptibility data and is satisfyingly validated by new landslide occurrences in the East African Rift, therefore successfully passing first transferability tests.

24 pages; International audience; An intercomparison of seven gridded rainfall products incorporating satellite data (ARC, CHIRPS, CMORPH, PERSIANN, TAPEER, TARCAT, TMPA) is carried out over Central Africa, by evaluating them against three observed datasets: (a) the WaTFor database, consisting of 293 (monthly records) and 154 (daily records) rain‐gauge stations collected from global datasets, national meteorological services and monitoring projects, (b) the WorldClim v2 gridded database, and (c) a set of stations expanded from the FAOCLIM network, these two latter sets describing climate normals. All products fairly well reproduce the mean rainfall regimes and the spatial patterns of mean annual rainfall, although with some discrepancies in the east–west gradient. A systematic positive bias is found in the CMORPH product. Despite its lower spatial resolution, TAPEER shows reasonable skills. When considering daily rainfall amounts, TMPA shows best skills, followed by CMORPH, but over the central part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, TARCAT is amongst the best products. Skills ranking is however different at the interannual time‐scale, with CHIRPS and TMPA performing best, though PERSIANN has comparable skills when only fully independent stations are used as reference. A preliminary study of Southern Hemisphere dry season variability, from the example of Kinshasa, shows that it is a difficult variable to capture with satellite‐based rainfall products. Users should still be careful when using any product in the most data‐sparse regions, especially for trend assessment.

Background This study gives an overview of a decade (2007–2017) of hospital-based Salmonella Typhi bloodstream infection (BSI) surveillance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), at 4 main sampling sites. Methods Blood cultures were sampled in hospital-admitted patients with suspected BSI, according to standardized clinical indications. The results of the surveillance period 2015–2017 were compiled with those of previous surveillance periods (2007–2010 and 2011–2014). Whole genome sequencing of isolates with decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility (DCS) was performed. Results Salmonella Typhi was isolated in 1.4% (531/37 388) and 10.3% (531/5177) of suspected and culture-confirmed BSI episodes, respectively. Salmonella Typhi ranked first among the BSI pathogens in adults (n = 220), but was mostly (n = 301 [56.7%]) isolated from children, of which 72.1% (217/301) and 31.6% (95/301) were Conclusions Salmonella Typhi was a frequent cause of BSI in adults and children in DRC, with high rates of antibiotic resistance. Sustainable surveillance and implementation of vaccination are compelling.

Rainfall threshold determination is a pressing issue in the landslide scientific community. While major improvements have been made towards more reproducible techniques for the identification of triggering conditions for landsliding, the now well-established rainfall intensity or event-duration thresholds for landsliding suffer from several limitations. Here, we propose a new approach of the frequentist method for threshold definition based on satellite-derived antecedent rainfall estimates directly coupled with landslide susceptibility data. Adopting a bootstrap statistical technique for the identification of threshold uncertainties at different exceedance probability levels, it results in thresholds expressed as AR = (α±Δα)⋅S(β±Δβ), where AR is antecedent rainfall (mm), S is landslide susceptibility, α and β are scaling parameters, and Δα and Δβ are their uncertainties. The main improvements of this approach consist in (1) using spatially continuous satellite rainfall data, (2) giving equal weight to rainfall characteristics and ground susceptibility factors in the definition of spatially varying rainfall thresholds, (3) proposing an exponential antecedent rainfall function that involves past daily rainfall in the exponent to account for the different lasting effect of large versus small rainfall, (4) quantitatively exploiting the lower parts of the cloud of data points, most meaningful for threshold estimation, and (5) merging the uncertainty on landslide date with the fit uncertainty in a single error estimation. We apply our approach in the western branch of the East African Rift based on landslides that occurred between 2001 and 2018, satellite rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B42 RT), and the continental-scale map of landslide susceptibility of Broeckx et al. (2018) and provide the first regional rainfall thresholds for landsliding in tropical Africa.

Accurate precipitation data are fundamental for understanding and mitigating the disastrous effects of many natural hazards in mountainous areas. Floods and landslides, in particular, are potentially deadly events that can be mitigated with advanced warning, but accurate forecasts require timely estimation of precipitation, which is problematic in regions such as tropical Africa with limited gauge measurements. Satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) are of great value in such areas, but rigorous validation is required to identify the uncertainties linked to SREs for hazard applications. This paper presents results of an unprecedented record of gauge data in the western branch of the East African Rift, with temporal resolutions ranging from 30 min to 24 h and records from 1998 to 2018. These data were used to validate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) research version and near-real-time products for 3-hourly, daily, and monthly rainfall accumulations, over multiple spatial scales. Results indicate that there are at least two factors that led to the underestimation of TMPA at the regional level: complex topography and high rainfall intensities. The TMPA near-real-time product shows overall stronger rainfall underestimations but lower absolute errors and a better performance at higher rainfall intensities compared to the research version. We found area-averaged TMPA rainfall estimates relatively more suitable in order to move toward regional hazard assessment, compared to data from scarcely distributed gauges with limited representativeness in the context of high rainfall variability.

Landslides can lead to high impacts in less developed countries, particularly in tropical environments where a combination of intense rainfall, active tectonics, steep topography, and high population density can be found. However, the processes controlling landslide initiation and their evolution through time remains poorly understood. Here we show the relevance of the use of the multi-temporal differential radar interferometric (DInSAR) technique to characterise ground deformations associated with landslides in the rapidly-expanding city of Bukavu (DR Congo). We use 70 COSMO-SkyMed synthetic aperture radar images acquired between March 2015 and April 2016 with a mean revisiting time of eight days to produce ground deformation rate maps and displacement time series using the small baseline subset approach. We find that various landslide processes of different ages, mechanisms, and states of activity can be identified. Ground deformations revealed by DInSAR are found consistent with field observations and differential GPS measurements. Our analysis highlights the ability of DInSAR to grasp landslide deformation patterns affecting the complex tropical-urban environment of the city of Bukavu. However, longer time series will be needed to infer landside responses to climate, seismic, and anthropogenic drivers.

The use of drainage ditches on farmland has an impact on erosion processes both on-site and off-site, though their environmental impacts are not unequivocal. Here we study the runoff response and related rill erosion after installing drainage ditches and assess the effects of stone bunds in north Ethiopia. Three different land management systems were studied in 10 cropland catchments around Wanzaye during the rainy season of 2013: (1) the exclusive use of drainage ditches (locally called feses), (2) the exclusive use of stone bunds, and (3) a mixture of both systems. Stone bunds are an effective soil and water conservation technique, making the land more resistant against on-site erosion, and allowing feses to be installed at a larger angle with the contour. The mean rill volumes for the 10 studied cropland catchments during the rainy season of 2013 was 3.73 ± 4.20 m3 ha−1 corresponding to a soil loss of 5.72 ± 6.30 ton ha−1. The establishment of feses causes larger rill volumes (R = 0.59, N = 10), although feses are perceived as the best way to avoid soil erosion when no stone bunds are present. The use of feses increases event-based runoff coefficients (RCs) on cropland from c. 5% to values up to 39%. Also, a combination of low stone bund density and high feses density results in a higher RC, whereas catchments with a high stone bund density and low feses density have a lower RC. Peak runoff discharges decrease when stone bund density increases, whereas feses density is positively related to the peak runoff discharge. A multiple linear relation in which both feses and stone bund densities are used as explanatory variable, performs best in explaining runoff hydrograph peakedness (R2 = 83%). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The combination of runoff-generating areas (saturated soils) and overland flow concentration in features such as drainage ditches makes sloping farmland vulnerable to soil erosion. The establishment of drainage ditches aims at draining the excess of water from the farmland, particularly in areas where soils are saturated in the rainy season. The hydrogeomorphic impacts on the farmland itself and on downstream areas need however also to be studied. Off site, downstream problems comprise higher peak discharges, leading to gully initiation, an increase in sediment load, and flooding problems. On-site problems such as the development of the drainage ditches into (ephemeral) gullies are less documented, although they may be important, as illustrated in the Lake Tana Basin (Ethiopia). The similarities and interactions between ephemeral gully channels and drainage ditches have to be considered to better understand all effects of drainage. Drainage ditches are a potential source of conflict between farmers with different interests and power, as well as between upstream and downstream users. A case study on drainage ditches on sloping farmlands in the Lake Tana Basin showed that nine out of ten catchments had drainage densities by ditches ranging from 53 to 510 m ha−1. Drainage ditches were constructed with an average top width of 27 (±9) cm. A significant correlation was found between stone bund density (physical conservation structures) and ditch drainage density (R = −0·72), in line with the Ethiopian government's ban on drainage ditches in farmlands where stone bunds have been constructed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Studying the causes and triggers of landslides is essential to understand the key process of hillslope evolution and the hazards they generate. Such understanding is crucial in tropical areas where landslide impacts are high and on the rise, and the dearth of accurate processes characterisation is large. Here we investigate the timing and the mechanisms of relatively slow-moving deep-seated landslides in weathered tropical environments through the analysis of a landslide located in the Kivu Rift (DR Congo). This landslide, developed in weathered basalt, shows obvious deformation features at its surface indicating large deformations during recent years, making it a unique natural laboratory in an underexplored area. High-resolution topographic data, historical aerial photographs, satellite imagery and careful field investigations are used to detail the landslide mechanisms and investigate failure development over a 60-year record. By confronting rainfall time series and earthquake sequences with the different deformation episodes, we show that the relation between instability triggers and slope failure is not straightforward; e.g., the largest instability occurred at the end of a dry season during a period of relatively low seismicity. Instead of direct influence of external triggers, we show that some phases of instability may be caused by the intrinsic evolution of the hillslope associated with weathered-related weakening of the slope strength through time. Our results question the relative weight of the commonly recognized causes and triggers of slope instability in this area. Analysis of landslide causes and triggers provided here should help improve the understanding of how surface processes influence the pace of hillslope evolution. It also contributes to a more accurate evaluation of the landslide hazard in the area and across other regions where similar environmental conditions are met.

Gully erosion is an extreme process of land degradation operating in different regions of the world. A common way to quantify the susceptibility of land to gully incision is the use of topographical thresholds for different land use types. However, the impact of various management practices in cropland on these thresholds has not been studied to date, although land management may significantly affect runoff production, erosion processes and rates. Here, the impact of different land management practices on gully head development in cropland is studied based on a standardized procedure for topographical threshold analysis: s > kA− b, where s represents the slope gradient of the soil surface, A the drainage area at the gully head, b an exponent and k a coefficient reflecting the resistance of the land to gully head development. A case study area was chosen around Wanzaye, North Ethiopia, where three different cropland management practices were studied in 75 catchments: (i) the catchment-wide use of stone bunds on the contour, (ii) the use of slightly sloping drainage ditches (feses), and (iii) the combined use of stone bunds and feses. The lowest k-values (0.078–0.090) are found for catchments treated with feses, the highest k-values (0.198–0.205) are observed for stone bund catchments, and medium k-values (0.092–0.099) are found for mixed catchments. This finding implies that catchments with the exclusive use of drainage ditches are the most vulnerable to gully head development compared with mixed catchments and stone bund catchments. However, on-site sheet and rill erosion rates are reduced by feses as they lower the gradient of the overland flow lines. Three trends in cropland management around Wanzaye and the wider region are observed: (i) feses are exclusively made on rather steep slopes where small drainage areas lead to the rapid development of gully heads; (ii) stone bunds are constructed on both steeper and gentle sloping cropland; and (iii) larger and gently sloping catchments seem to be most suitable for the combined use of drainage ditches and stone bunds.