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Byline: Mark Lijesen (1), Hein Mannaerts (2), Machiel Mulder (2) Keywords: electricity; liberalization; service reliability Abstract: We discuss under what conditions California's electricity crisis may happen in Western European countries, taking The Netherlands as an example. We use a simulation model containing the electricity generation and distribution sector. We simulate exogenous events, such as a sudden shift in demand levels, a sharp rise in world fuel prices and a cutback in foreign supply. We use the model to investigate whether supply remains secured under different regulatory regimes. Our results suggest a trade-off between controlled prices and security of supply. Europe's electricity supply security is vulnerable if prices are not allowed to reflect scarcity. If prices are unrestricted however, they will reach oligopoly levels. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of energy and raw materials, CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Research, USA (2) Department of energy and raw materials, CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Research, USA Article History: Registration Date: 12/10/2004

The Capacitor-Aided System for Teaching and Learning Electricity (CASTLE) Project attempts to help high-school students lose their misconceptions about electricity through the use of models. Some of the misconceptions combated by CASTLE Project models include that batteries are the sole origin for the charge and batteries provide constant current. Air flow is used to describe current rather than liquid flow because fluid requires external force. The CASTLE curricula provides visualizable, intuitive explanations for physics concepts through models.

The Capacitor-Aided System for Teaching and Learning Electricity Project's curricula could be a valuable teaching technique if it would adopt a more realistic model of charge conduction. The Project uses a compressible-fluid model that posits the existence of pressure differences forcing electrical current to move. Air pressure can be a useful analogy but it is not a model for electrical current which conventional theories have driven by electric fields not pressure. Therefore, the curricula creates potential misunderstandings that could be avoided through a different model.

This paper will describe updates in an electrical reliability modeling process, first described in a 1994 paper for the Petroleum and Chemical Industry Committee of the IEEE Industry Applications Society. The paper will also describe an additional new method for evaluating power system design options. The electrical reliability model has been expanded with more extensive component failure and repair values. Additional modeling techniques have been developed for evaluating typical electrical systems found in petroleum and chemical facilities. The reliability calculation results, based on the actual modeling of many refineries in the U.S., are described. The paper also describes a new method which was developed to evaluate and compare power system designs, based on the resulting composite reliability values and other factors, including recovery from faults, availability for maintenance, safety, and cost. This new method provides an analytical approach to optimize the power system design to the plant operation and maintenance requirements. Index Terms--Electrical reliability, evaluation, modeling, system comparison.