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To the Editor: The Perindopril Protection Against Recurrent Stroke Study (PROGRESS) Collaborative Group notes that the End Point Adjudication Committee (EPAC) process had no discernible impact on that trial’s statistical conclusions.1 However, we caution that this result is not necessarily representative and that an EPAC is a wise investment for most studies. This claim is supported by the following points. First, the rejection rate of 9.9% seen in PROGRESS is low by our experience. Traditionally, one asks investigators to “cast a wide net” and send in any possible event, even if they believe it unlikely to be a true event, to ensure that no true events escape detection (ie, no false-negatives). This process leads to more spurious events, but that …

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a risk factor for stroke, especially when accompanied by other high-risk cardiovascular predictors. The Atrial Fibrillation Follow-up Investigation of Rhythm Management (AFFIRM) Study was a multicenter comparison of high-risk patients with AF who were randomized to either a sinus rhythm control or a rate control strategy. Methods Physicians were encouraged to continue anticoagulation therapy for their patients. Patients in the sinus rhythm control group could stop warfarin sodium therapy after 4 (preferably a minimum of 12) weeks if they maintained sinus rhythm while receiving an antiarrhythmic drug. Results The AFFIRM Study enrolled 4060 patients. Mortality was the same in both groups. Two hundred eleven patients (8.2%) had a stroke event. Ischemic stroke occurred in 157 patients (6.3%), primary intraparenchymal hemorrhage in 34 (1.2%), and subdural or subarachnoid hemorrhage in 24 (0.8%). The most frequently determined ischemic stroke mechanism was cardioembolic (35/71 [49%]). Treatment assignment had no significant effect on the occurrence of ischemic stroke. Patients in AF at the time of the stroke event had a 60% greater chance of having an ischemic stroke, and those taking warfarin at the time of follow-up had a 69% decrease in the risk of having an ischemic stroke. Conclusions In the AFFIRM Study, stroke rates were not significantly different in the rate control and sinus rhythm control arms. However, several clinical and therapeutic variables were associated with stroke risk. In patients with a history of AF at high risk for stroke or death, the presence of AF increases the risk of having a stroke, and warfarin therapy reduces the risk of having a stroke. The beneficial effect of warfarin therapy is seen not only in patients in AF but also in patients with a history of AF but who presumably remain in sinus rhythm.

Background: While atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of cardioembolic stroke, some ischemic strokes in AF patients are noncardioembolic. Objectives: To assess ischemic stroke mechanisms in AF and to compare their responses to antithrombotic therapies. Methods: On-therapy analyses of ischemic strokes occurring in 3,950 participants in the Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation I–III clinical trials. Strokes were classified by presumed mechanism according to specified neurologic features by neurologists unaware of antithrombotic therapy. Results: Of 217 ischemic strokes, 52% were classified as probably cardioembolic, 24% as noncardioembolic, and 24% as of uncertain cause (i.e., 68% of classifiable infarcts were deemed cardioembolic). Compared to those receiving placebo or no antithrombotic therapy, the proportion of cardioembolic stroke was lower in patients taking adjusted-dose warfarin (p = 0.02), while the proportion of noncardioembolic stroke was lower in those taking aspirin (p = 0.06). Most (56%) ischemic strokes occurring in AF patients taking adjusted-dose warfarin were noncardioembolic vs. 16% of strokes in those taking aspirin. Adjusted-dose warfarin reduced cardioembolic strokes by 83% (p < 0.001) relative to aspirin. Cardioembolic strokes were particularly disabling (p = 0.05). Conclusions: Most ischemic strokes in AF patients are probably cardioembolic, and these are sharply reduced by adjusted-dose warfarin. Aspirin in AF patients appears to primarily reduce noncardioembolic strokes. AF patients at highest risk for stroke have the highest rates of cardioembolic stroke and have the greatest reduction in stroke by warfarin.

Atrial fibrillation predisposes to left atrial thrombus formation and carries a sixfold increased risk for stroke. Antithrombotic therapies are the mainstay for stroke prevention. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke-sponsored Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation (SPAF) studies assessed the value of warfarin, aspirin, and their combination for preventing stroke in six multicenter trials involving 3950 participants. This review presents the major results and implications, which offer unique perspectives on antithrombotic therapies for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation. Warfarin and aspirin reduce stroke. Anticoagulation substantially benefits high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation, while many younger patients with atrial fibrillation have a low stroke rate when given aspirin. Pathogenetic and transesophageal echocardiographic correlations shed light on mechanisms by which antithrombotic agents prevent stroke. Warfarin inhibits formation of atrial appendage thrombi and markedly reduces cardioembolic strokes, while aspirin primarily prevents smaller, noncardioembolic strokes. The SPAF III stroke risk stratification scheme has been validated for identifying patients with high versus moderate versus low risk for stroke. Women with atrial fibrillation benefit from anticoagulation significantly more than men do. Many elderly patients with recurrent paroxysmal atrial fibrillation have high rates of stroke. Antithrombotic prophylaxis should be individualized on the basis of the estimated risk for stroke during aspirin therapy and the risk for bleeding during anticoagulation. Overall, nearly one third of patients with atrial fibrillation are low risk and should be treated with aspirin, and about one third are high risk and should receive warfarin if it can be given safely. For patients at moderate risk for stroke, patient preferences and access to reliable anticoagulation monitoring are particularly relevant.