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Timing of spring sea-ice retreat shapes the southeast Bering Sea food web. We compared summer seabird densities and average bathymetry depth distributions between years with early (typically warm) and late (typically cold) ice retreat. Averaged over all seabird species, densities in early-ice-retreat-years were 10.1% (95% CI: 1.1-47.9%) of that in late-ice-retreat-years. In early-ice-retreat-years, surface-foraging species had increased numbers over the middle shelf (50-150 m) and reduced numbers over the shelf slope (200-500 m). Pursuit-diving seabirds showed a less clear trend. Euphausiids and the copepod Calanus marshallae/glacialis were 2.4 and 18.1 times less abundant in early-ice-retreat-years, respectively, whereas age-0 walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus near-surface densities were 51× higher in early-ice-retreat-years. Our results suggest a mechanistic understanding of how present and future changes in sea-ice-retreat timing may affect top predators like seabirds in the southeastern Bering Sea.

Climate change is altering the distribution and abundance of marine species, especially in Arctic and sub‐Arctic regions. In the eastern Bering Sea, home of the world's largest run of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), juvenile sockeye salmon abundance has increased and their migration path shifted north with warming, 2002–2018. The reasons for these changes are poorly understood. For these sockeye salmon, we quantify environmental and biological covariate effects within spatio‐temporal species distribution models. Spatio‐temporally, with respect to juvenile sockeye salmon densities: (1) sea surface temperature had a nonlinear effect, (2) large copepod, Calanus, a minor prey item, had no effect, (3) age‐0 pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus), a major prey item during warm years, had a positive linear effect, and (4) juvenile pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) had a positive linear effect. Temporally, annual biomass of juvenile sockeye salmon was nonlinearly related to sea temperature and positively related to age‐0 pollock and juvenile pink salmon abundance. Results indicate that sockeye salmon distributed with and increased in abundance with increases in prey, and reached a threshold for optimal temperatures in the eastern Bering Sea. Changes in population dynamics and distribution of sockeye salmon in response to environmental variability have potential implications for projecting specific future food securities and management of fisheries in Arctic waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is an important component of the eastern Bering Sea ecosystem and subject to major fisheries. The Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH) predicted that recruitment of pollock year classes should be greatest in years with early ice retreat and late blooms in warm water, because more energy would flow into the pelagic (vs. benthic) community. The OCH further predicted that, with pollock population growth, there should be a shift from bottom-up to top-down regulation. New data support the predictions that in those years with early ice retreat, more primary production accrues to the pelagic compartment and that large numbers of age-0 pollock survive to summer. However, in these years, production of large crustacean zooplankton is reduced, depriving age-0 pollock of lipid-rich prey in summer and autumn. Consequently, age-0 pollock energy reserves (depot lipids) are low and predation on them is increased as fish switch to age-0 pollock from zooplankton. The result is weak recruitment of age-1 recruits the following year. A revised OCH indicates bottom-up constraints on pollock recruitment in very warm periods. Prolonged warm periods with decreased ice cover will likely cause diminished pollock recruitment and catches relative to recent values. © 2011 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.

Abstract--We tested the hypothesis that larger juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, have higher marine-stage survival rates than smaller juvenile salmon. We used scales from returning adults [...]

Temporal changes in phytoplankton pigments and spectral absorption were evaluated during June 1998 in East Sound, Orcas Island, Washington. High-resolution vertical profiles of in situ spectral absorption were obtained with a Wet Labs ac-9 (nine-wavelength absorption and beam attenuation meter), and pigment concentrations were determined for discrete water samples using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Fucoxanthin was the most abundant carotenoid, indicating the dominance of diatoms. We computed a slope index to evaluate changes in shapes of the in situ particulate absorption coefficient ([a.sub.p]) spectra, [a.sub.p] slope = ([a.sub.p]488 - [a.sub.p]532)/([a.sub.p]676(488 - 532 nm)). A clear linear relationship was seen between ratios of photoprotective: photosynthetic carotenoids (PPC: PSC) and these [a.sub.p] slopes. While pigment package effects may alter the absorption spectra, in our data set we still found a significant relationship between pigment ratios and in situ [a.sub.p] slopes. Retrieval of this relationship was facilitated by the low and relatively constant detrital absorption coefficient ([a.sub.d]) values in our study area. Similar relationships were found between PPC: PSC ratios and the estimated phytoplankton absorption coefficient ([a.sub.ph]) spectra. High PPC: PSC ratios and steeper [a.sub.p] slopes were associated with high-light levels. Our results suggest that in situ absorption measurements can be used to estimate PPC: PSC ratios in areas where the ad contribution is low or can be estimated. These variations in pigment ratios and spectral absorption reflect photoacclimation responses and/or changes in phytoplankton species composition and suggest in situ absorption measurements may be used to estimate pigmentation changes over fine temporal and spatial scales.

We investigated relationships among three metrics of sea-ice cover in eight regions of the eastern Bering Sea and the abundance of Calanus copepods, jellyfish medusae, and year-class strength of walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). In summer, Calanus spp. were more abundant over the middle shelf when sea ice lingered late into spring, and, to a lesser extent, when February sea-ice cover was heavy. Between 1982 and 1999, there were no significant (p  ≤ 0.05) relationships between the amount or timing of sea-ice cover and pollock recruitment. However, between 2000 and 2015, pollock year-class strength was positively correlated with sea ice in the outer and middle shelves, with 17 of 24 regressions significant. Pollock year-class strength was best predicted by days with sea-ice cover after February. Pollock recruitment was positively influenced by copepod numbers, particularly in the middle shelf, with r 2 values from 0.36 to 0.47. We hypothesize that the Calanus spp. present in the southeastern Bering Sea are primarily Calanus glacialis that have been advected south in association with sea ice. None of our sea-ice metrics explained the variance in jellyfish biomass. Jellyfish biomass in our study area in the pollock age-0 year was not correlated with pollock recruitment 3 years later. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differences in zooplankton populations in relation to climate have been explored extensively on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf, specifically in relation to recruitment of the commercially important species walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus). We addressed two research questions in this study: (i) Does the relative abundance of individual copepod species life history stages differ across warm and cold periods and (ii) Do estimated secondary production rates for copepods differ across warm and cold periods? For most copepod species, warmer conditions resulted in increased abundances in May, the opposite was observed in colder conditions. Abundances of smaller-sized copepod species did not differ significantly between the warm and cold periods, whereas abundances of larger-sized Calanus spp. increased during the cold period during July and September. Estimated secondary production rates in the warm period were highest in May for smaller-sized copepods; production in the cold period was dominated by the larger-sized Calanus spp. in July and September. We hypothesize that these observed patterns are a function of temperature-driven changes in phenology combined with shifts in size-based trophic relationships with primary producers. Based on this hypothesis, we present a conceptual model that builds upon the Oscillating Control Hypothesis to explain how variability in copepod production links to pollock variability. Specifically, fluctuations in spring sea-ice drive regime-dependent copepod production over the southeastern Bering Sea, but greatest impacts to upper trophic levels are driven by cascading July/September differences in copepod production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem structure and function in the eastern Bering Sea are impacted by seasonal, interannual, and spatial variation of the zooplankton community. Zooplankton abundance, community composition and individual responses of key taxa, in spring, summer, and fall were evaluated across ecoregions during three years with high sea-ice, 2008-2010 (cold years). Interannual variations were greatest in spring, but less pronounced compared with intra-annual variations. Intra-annual variations were greatest in the south middle domain in spring and the north middle domain in all seasons. Models using environmental variables were able to explain 69-77% of zooplankton community variation within each season. Among individual taxa, Calanus marshallae/glacialis had delayed stage progression in spring 2009 compared with 2008 and 2010 on the south middle shelf, likely due to late ice retreat and cold temperatures that increased development times. In contrast, stage progression was fastest in summer 2008 likely due to warmer temperatures. Our findings indicate that intra-annual variation of zooplankton community composition, life history stage, and abundance within a cold period may affect the amount of high-lipid zooplankton prey (e.g. Neocalanus and Calanus spp. copepods and euphausiids) available seasonally for forage fish (e.g. age-0 walleye pollock) to grow to a sufficient size (to avoid size-dependent predation) and have sufficient lipid stores (to avoid starvation) to survive the first winter at sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-mediated oceanographic changes have led to protracted periods of above- or below-average water temperatures over the eastern Bering Sea shelf since the early 2000s. Ecosystem components, from phytoplankton to marine birds, have shown dichotomous responses to these temperature stanzas. Understanding within-stanza responses is fundamental to modelling efforts that project ecosystem responses under future climate scenarios. This study describes fish communities associated with Walleye Pollock during the age-0 period and also examines within-stanza homogeneity of assemblages. Spatial patterns of assemblage structure are compared with pre-defined ecoregions and environmental indices are assessed to determine potential mechanisms that delineate species assemblages. Walleye Pollock, rockfishes, Sand Lance, and Northern Rock Sole contributed to spring assemblages in every year. Assemblages were delineated by across-shelf gradients in 2008 and 2010 while 2009 assemblages showed less spatial structure. In summer, the diversity of fish assemblages increased across years but early-stage juvenile Walleye Pollock represented a small portion of the total abundance in 2009. Environmental gradients were related to fish assemblages, but patterns were along-shelf in 2008 and across-shelf in 2010. In fall, late-stage juvenile Walleye Pollock dominated the catch in 2008, but did not typify any assemblage in 2009. Overall, patterns of assemblage structure were not consistent with pre-defined ecoregions. Assemblage structure in 2009 was unique and indicates that within-stanza variability may complicate modelling projections based on ecosystem-level responses to climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]