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Background: In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Objective: To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models. Methods: Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement. Results: 4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods. Conclusions: The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Background and purpose: This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).Methods: We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow -up >= 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score >= 3, with >= 1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12 -month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.Results: Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45- 0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41- 0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09- 1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.Conclusions: DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age. This study was financially supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (1129189, 1140766, 1080518) We thank the patients and their carers who have agreed to participate in the global MSBase cohort study. The MSBase Foundation is a not-for-profit organization that receives support from Roche, Merck, Biogen, Novartis, Bayer-Schering, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Teva. The study was conducted separately and apart from the guidance of the sponsors. Open access publishing facilitated by The University of Melbourne, as part of the Wiley - The University of Melbourne agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

Summary Background There is an urgent unmet need for new therapies in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. In a clinical study with healthy volunteers, levosimendan, a calcium sensitiser, was shown to improve neuromechanical efficiency and contractile function of the human diaphragm. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of oral levosimendan in people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, with a focus on respiratory function. Methods The REFALS study is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial at 99 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis specialist centres in 14 countries worldwide. People with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were eligible for participation if they were at least 18 years of age and had a sitting slow vital capacity (SVC) of 60–90% predicted. Participants were randomly assigned (2:1) by interactive web-response system to receive either levosimendan or placebo. The capsules for oral administration were identical in appearance to maintain blinding of participants and investigators. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline in supine SVC at 12 weeks, assessed as the percentage of predicted normal sitting SVC. The key secondary endpoint was the combined assessment of function and survival (CAFS) up to 48 weeks. Analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population, comprising all participants who were randomly assigned. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03505021) and has been completed. An extension study (REFALS-ES; NCT03948178 ) has also been completed, but will be reported separately. Findings Between June 21, 2018, and June 28, 2019, 871 people were screened for the study, of whom 496 were randomly assigned either levosimendan (n=329) or placebo (n=167). Participants were followed up between June 27, 2018 and June 26, 2020, for a median duration of 50·1 (IQR 37·5–51·1) weeks. The median duration of treatment was 47·9 (IQR 26·4–48·1) weeks. Change from baseline in supine SVC at 12 weeks was –6·73% with levosimendan and –6·99% with placebo, with no significant difference between the treatments (estimated treatment difference 0·26%, 95% CI –2·03 to 2·55, p=0·83). Similarly, at week 48, CAFS did not differ between treatment groups (least squares mean change from baseline 10·69, 95% CI –15·74 to 37·12; nominal p value=0·43). The most frequent adverse events were increased heart rate (106 [33%] of 326 receiving levosimendan vs 12 [7%] of 166 receiving placebo), fall (85 [26%] vs 48 [29%]), headache (93 [29%] vs 36 [22%]), and dyspnoea (59 [18%] vs 32 [19%]). 33 (10%) participants allocated levosimendan and 20 (12%) assigned placebo died during the trial, mainly due to respiratory failure or progression of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Interpretation Levosimendan was not superior to placebo in maintaining respiratory function in a broad population with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Although levosimendan was generally well tolerated, increased heart rate and headache occurred more frequently with levosimendan than with placebo. The possibility of a clinically relevant subgroup of responsive individuals requires further evaluation. Funding Orion Corporation.

BackgroundDisability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking.MethodsData of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. TRIPOD guidelines were followed.Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expended disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course.To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated on their area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error.FindingsA temporal attention model was the best model. It achieved a ROC-AUC of 0·71 ± 0·01, an AUC-PR of 0·26 ± 0·02, a Brier score of 0·1 ± 0·01 and an expected calibration error of 0·07 ± 0·04. The history of disability progression is more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses.InterpretationGood discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This makes these models ready for a clinical impact study. All our preprocessing and model code is available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS.

International audience; Objective: To explore the associations of patient and disease characteristics with the duration of therapeutic lag for relapses and disability progression.Background: Therapeutic lag represents the delay from initiation of therapy to attainment of full treatment effect. Understanding the determinants of therapeutic lag provides valuable information for personalised choice of therapy in multiple sclerosis (MS).Design/Methods: Data from MSBase, a multinational MS registry, and OFSEP, the French national registry, were used. Patients diagnosed with MS, minimum 1-year exposure to MS treatment, minimum 3-year pre-treatment follow up and yearly review were included in the analysis. By studying incidence of relapses and 6-month confirmed disability progression, the duration of therapeutic lag was calculated by identifying the first local minimum of the first derivative after treatment start in subgroups stratified by patient and disease characteristics. Pairwise analyses of univariate predictors were performed. Combinations of determinants that consistently drove differences in therapeutic lag in pair by pair analyses were included in the final model.Results: Baseline EDSS, ARR and sex were associated with duration of therapeutic lag on disability progression in univariate and pairwise bivariable analyses. In the final model, therapeutic lag was 27.8 weeks shorter in females with ARR6 compared to those with EDSS>=6 (26.6, 18.2–34.9 vs 54.3, 47.2–61.5). Baseline EDSS, ARR, sex and MS phenotype were associated with duration of therapeutic lag on relapses in univariate analyses. Pairwise bivariable analyses of the pairs of determinants suggested ependently associated with therapeutic lag. In the final model, therapeutic lag was shortest in those with RRMS and EDSS

Previous studies have shown the potential of microRNAs (miRNA) in the pathological process of stroke and functional recovery. Bone marrow mononuclear cell (BM-MNC) transplantation improves recovery in experimental models of ischemic stroke that might be related with miRNA modifications. However, its effect on circulating miRNA has not been described in patients with stroke. We aimed to evaluate the circulating levels of miRNAs after autologous BM-MNC transplantation in patients with stroke. We investigate the pattern of miRNA-133b and miRNA-34a expression in patients with ischemic stroke included in a multicenter randomized controlled phase IIb trial (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier: NCT02178657). Patients were randomized to 2 different doses of autologous intra-arterial BM-MNC injection (2×106/kg or 5×106/kg) or control group within the first 7 days after stroke onset. We evaluate plasma concentration of miRNA-113b and miRNA-34a at inclusion and 4, 7, and 90 days after treatment. Thirteen cases (8 with 2×106/kg BM-MNC dose and 5 with 5×106/kg dose) and 11 controls (BM-MNC non-treated) were consecutively included. Mean age was 64.1±12.3 with a mean National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at inclusion of 14.5. Basal levels of miRNA were similar in both groups. miR-34a-5p and miR-133b showed different expression patterns. There was a significant dose-dependent increase of miRNA-34a levels 4 days after BM-MNC injection (fold change 3.7, p, This work has been supported by the grants PI15/01197, PI18/01414 and RD16/0019/0015 (INVICTUS+) from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, cofunded by ISCIII and FEDER funds; Mutua Madrileña grant. FMa is supported by a Rio Hortega contract (CM16/00015). Andalusian Initiative for Advanced Therapies (IATA) is the sponsor of the trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. METHODS: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. RESULTS: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS. ispartof: COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE vol:208 ispartof: location:Ireland status: published

Resumen: Introducción: Existen evidencias de la insuficiente capacidad informativa por parte de los especialistas médicos, así como de las dificultades retentivas de los pacientes con enfermedad de Alzheimer (EA) y de sus cuidadores. Entre las diversas causas figuran tanto las limitaciones personales del profesional como los determinantes externos, emocionales y socioculturales del paciente y de su cuidador.Contrastar la información clínica proporcionada por los médicos sobre la EA y la percibida por los cuidadores y evaluar los factores asociados a las diferencias de percepción. Pacientes y métodos: Se llevó a cabo un estudio observacional, multicéntrico y nacional mediante cuestionarios que evalúan la información suministrada por el médico y la retenida por el paciente en 17 aspectos informativos. Participaron 61 investigadores que incluyeron a un total de 679 pacientes que cumplían los criterios de selección. Se evaluaron los factores asociados a la diferencia de percepción sobre la información transmitida. Resultados: Los cuidadores participantes tenían una media de 57,2 ± 14,8 años, habiendo dedicado un tiempo medio como cuidadores de 27,6 ± 28,0 meses, y siendo el 50,9% hijos del paciente que mayoritariamente vivían en el mismo domicilio (64,9%). Los cuidadores valoraron significativamente mejor la información recibida sobre: concepto de la enfermedad, aspectos etiopatogénicos, posología y recomendaciones sobre el tratamiento y adherencia terapéutica, mientras que los médicos consideraron significativamente mejor la información referente a desmitificación y corrección de concepciones previas, posibles complicaciones, riesgos, efectos adversos y/o yatrogenia, asociaciones de familiares, y ayuda emocional/psicológica a cuidadores (p

Resumen: Introducción: La enfermedad de Parkinson (EP) carece de escalas neuropsicológicas específicas para valorar las alteraciones cognitivas más relevantes en la EP, lo que ha condicionado la utilización de criterios subjetivos o de instrumentos diseñados para otras patologías, dificultando la comparación entre estudios o el seguimiento de los pacientes. Recientemente se ha validado un test de cribado para la demencia en la EP (Parkinson's Disease Dementia-Short Screen [PDD-SS]). Evaluar el grado de satisfacción de los pacientes e investigadores con el uso del PDD-SS en la práctica clínica habitual. Pacientes y métodos: Estudio observacional, transversal, multicéntrico y nacional en 471 pacientes con EP. El grado de satisfacción de los pacientes se midió mediante un cuestionario cuyos ítems puntuaban según una escala analógica-visual de 0-10 puntos (0 = totalmente en desacuerdo, 10 = completamente de acuerdo), mientras que en los investigadores se determinó según una escala Likert de 1-5 puntos (1 = totalmente en desacuerdo, 5 = completamente de acuerdo). Resultados: El 36,3% (n = 171) de los pacientes presentó demencia asociada a EP según el PDD-SS, considerándose un 77,3% satisfechos con su uso. La satisfacción medida total de los investigadores fue de 3,6 ± 0,6 puntos. El 90% (n = 45) de ellos reportó una puntuación global > 3 puntos en el cuestionario de satisfacción. La valoración media de la percepción de aplicabilidad, manejabilidad y fiabilidad del PDD-SS entre los investigadores fue de 3,5 ± 0,7; 3,7 ± 0,6 y 3,1 ± 0,5 puntos, respectivamente. Conclusión: Los pacientes con EP, así como la mayoría de los investigadores se mostraron satisfechos con el uso del PDD-SS en la práctica clínica habitual. Abstract: Introduction: Parkinson disease (PD) has no specific neuropsychological scales for assessing the most significant cognitive impairment in PD, which has determined the use of subjective criteria or instruments designed for other diseases, making difficult the comparison between studies or the follow-up of patients. A screening test for dementia in PD (Parkinson's Disease Dementia-Short Screen [PDD-SS]) has recently been validated. To assess the degree of satisfaction of patients and researchers through the use of PDD-SS in clinical practice. Patients and methods: An observational, cross-over, multicentre and national study was conducted on 471 patients with PD. The degree of patient satisfaction was measured using a questionnaire in which the items scored from 0 to 10 on a visual analogue scale (0 = strongly disagree, 10 = completely agree), while the researchers were determined on a 1-5 point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = completely agree). Results: A total of 171 patients (36.3%) patients had dementia associated with PD according to the PDD-SS, of whom 77.3% said they were satisfied with its use. The overall measurement of researcher satisfaction was 3.6 ± 0.6 points. Ninety per cent (n = 45) of them reported an overall score >3 points in the satisfaction questionnaire. The mean values of perception of applicability, usability and reliability of PDD-SS among researchers was 3.5 ± 0.7, 3.7 ± 0.6 and 3.1 ± 0.5 points, respectively. Conclusions: PD patients, as well as most of the researchers, were satisfied with the use of PDD-SS in clinical practice. Palabras clave: Demencia, Enfermedad de Parkinson, Test de diagnóstico, Cribado, Satisfacción, Cuestionarios, Keywords: Dementia, Parkinson's disease, Diagnostic test, Screening, Satisfaction, Questionnaires

The post-marketing international Global Adherence Project investigated adherence to disease-modifying therapy for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. We report adherence data from the first 2 years in the Spanish subset of patients (n = 254 at baseline). The overall adherence rate was 85.4%. Patients taking intramuscular (IM) interferon-β (IFNβ)-1a were significantly more adherent (96.4%) compared with patients taking subcutaneous (SC) IFNβ-1a 22 µg (79.1%; p = 0.0064), SC IFNβ-1a 44 µg (79.6%; p = 0.0064) and glatiramer acetate (82.7%; p = 0.0184). At year 1 (n = 142), the overall adherence rate was 86.6%. Patients on IM IFNβ-1a were significantly more adherent than patients on SC IFNβ-1a 22 µg (93.9 vs. 66.7%; p = 0.0251). At year 2 (n = 131), the overall adherence rate was 82% (87.5% for IM IFNβ-1a, 80.0% for SC IFNβ-1a 22 µg, 77.8% for SC IFNβ-1a 44 µg, 85.2% for IFNβ-1b, and 80.0% for glatiramer acetate). In conclusion, adherence remained high among all disease-modifying therapies over the first 2 years of the study and was significantly higher for IM IFNβ-1a, at visit 1, compared with SC IFNβ-1a.

Objective To study the influence of polyvascular atherothrombotic disease on stroke patient prognosis, its relation with inflammatory markers, and to analyze the progression of atherothrombotic disease. Methods MITICO is a multi-centered prospective observational study recruiting non-anticoagulated ischemic stroke patients. Blood samples were obtained at baseline and at one year follow-up for determination of high sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP), interleukin 6 (IL-6), intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9), and cellular fibronectin (c-Fn). Patients with polyvascular atherothrombotic disease were considered when presented a history of angina–myocardial infarction, intermittent claudication or ischemic limbs-amputation at inclusion. Results The sample consisted of 863 patients, 121 of them considered as polyvascular atherothrombotic disease (14.02%). Recurrence and vascular death were higher in patients with polyvascular atherothrombotic disease, as compared to patients with monovascular atherothrombotic disease (19.8% vs. 12.4%, p =0.022). Baseline plasma levels of IL-6 and VCAM-1 were higher in patients with polyvascular atherothrombotic disease. IL-6 and VCAM-1 levels were independently associated with a new vascular episode/vascular death. This association was stronger in the group of patients with polyvascular atherothrombotic disease. Baseline levels of IL-6, VCAM-1 and c-Fn were significantly higher in patients who developed progression of atherothrombotic disease. The increase from baseline in MMP-9 and c-Fn levels after one year follow-up was associated to progression of atherothrombotic disease. Conclusions Stroke patients with polyvascular atherothrombotic disease showed higher rates of vascular recurrence and a stronger association with inflammatory markers. Progression of atherothrombotic disease was associated with inflammatory markers.

We investigated the use of Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers in European Alzheimer's Disease Consortium centers and assessed their perceived usefulness for the etiologic diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We surveyed availability, frequency of use, and confidence in diagnostic usefulness of markers of brain amyloidosis (amyloid position emission tomography [PET], cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] A beta 42) and neurodegeneration (medial temporal atrophy [MTA] on MR, fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography [FDG-PET], CSF tau). The most frequently used biomarker is visually rated MTA (75% of the 37 responders reported using it "always/frequently") followed by CSF markers (22%), FDG-PET (16%), and amyloid-PET (3%). Only 45% of responders perceive MTA as contributing to diagnostic confidence, where the contribution was rated as "moderate". Seventy-nine percent of responders felt "very/extremely" comfortable delivering a diagnosis of MCI due to AD when both amyloid and neuronal injury biomarkers were abnormal (P < .02 versus any individual biomarker). Responders largely agreed that a combination of amyloidosis and neuronal injury biomarkers was a strongly indicative AD signature. (C) 2015 The Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.