1. PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR COVID-19 INCIDENCE IN A MEDIUM-SIZED MUNICIPALITY IN BRAZIL (PONTA GROSSA, PARANÁ)
- Author
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Carlos Eduardo Coradassi, Pollyanna Kássia de Oliveira Borges, Camila Marinelli Martins, Eduarda Mirela da Silva Montiel, Ricardo Zanetti Gomes, and Erildo Vicente Muller
- Subjects
education.field_of_study ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,Hospitalized patients ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Population ,Ecological study ,Estimate ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Basic reproduction number ,Coronavirus ,Hospitalization ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Mortality ,Epidemics ,education ,Epidemic model ,business ,General Nursing ,Demography - Abstract
Objective: to produce a predictive model for the incidence of COVID-19 cases, severity and deaths in Ponta Grossa, state of Paraná. Methods: this is an ecological study with data from confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported between March 21, 2020 and May 3, 2020 in Ponta Grossa and proportion of severity, hospitalization and lethality in the literature. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model was developed, and reproduction rate (R0), duration of epidemic, peak period, number of cases, hospitalized patients and deaths were estimated. Deaths were calculated by age group and in three scenarios: at day 24, at day 34, and at day 44 of the epidemic. Results: in the three scenarios assessed in this study, the variation in the number of cases was explained by an exponential curve (r2=0.74, 0.79 and 0.89, respectively, p
- Published
- 2020
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