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1. The beliefs, practices and developments of three teachers of science in the primary school

Author

Edmonds, J. S.

Subjects
372.35, Primary, Science, Capital, Community of practice, NQT, CPD
Abstract

This thesis explores the beliefs of three teachers about effective primary science practice, and the ways these develop in the context of a climate where there are few school resources for primary science training. The research proposes a new theoretical model combining Lave and Wenger's communities of practice (1991) with Bourdieu's science capital social theory (2004) to explore the impact of science knowledge, culture and science social contacts on the development of beliefs about science, science teaching and the teachers' position and agency in the school to enable learning from others. A case study methodology was used, with three local primary teachers, employing participative observation and semi-structured interviews to gather data on beliefs on primary science and professional development. The data was evaluated using thematic analysis. The three teachers identified a range of beliefs about effective teaching strategies in primary science, including enquiry, linking ideas to observables in activities and dialogic learning approaches which appeared to be influenced by each teacher's type and amount of science capital. There appeared to be little science expertise or CPD in schools, to support science teaching especially during the first years when teaching strategies are established. Some teachers were not part of any external 'community of practice' and found online resources unhelpful for developing pedagogy. The combined theoretical model was found to be effective in recognising the teachers' previous experience in science and its impact on their present beliefs.

Published
2019

2. GCAM v5.1: Representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems

Author

Calvin, K, Patel, P, Clarke, L, Asrar, G, Bond-Lamberty, B, Yiyun Cui, R, Di Vittorio, A, Dorheim, K, Edmonds, J, Hartin, C, Hejazi, M, Horowitz, R, Iyer, G, Kyle, P, Kim, S, Link, R, Mcjeon, H, Smith, SJ, Snyder, A, Waldhoff, S, and Wise, M

Subjects
Earth Sciences
Abstract

This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.

Published
2019

3. Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

Author

Thornton, PE, Calvin, K, Jones, AD, Di Vittorio, AV, Bond-Lamberty, B, Chini, L, Shi, X, Mao, J, Collins, WD, Edmonds, J, Thomson, A, Truesdale, J, Craig, A, Branstetter, ML, and Hurtt, G

Subjects
Atmospheric Sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Environmental Science and Management
Abstract

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system - demonstrated here - are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Published
2017

4. Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios

Author

Jones, AD, Calvin, KV, Collins, WD, and Edmonds, J

Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The method relies on geographically differentiated estimates of radiative forcing from albedo change associated with major land cover transitions derived from the Community Earth System Model. We find that conversion of 1 km2 of woody vegetation (forest and shrublands) to non-woody vegetation (crops and grassland) yields between 0 and −0.71 nW/m2 of globally averaged radiative forcing determined by the vegetation characteristics, snow dynamics, and atmospheric radiation environment characteristic within each of 151 regions we consider globally. Across a set of scenarios designed to span a range of potential future LULCC, we find LULCC forcing ranging from −0.06 to −0.29 W/m2 by 2070 depending on assumptions regarding future crop yield growth and whether climate policy favors afforestation or bioenergy crops. Inclusion of this previously uncounted forcing in the policy targets driving future climate mitigation efforts leads to changes in fossil fuel emissions on the order of 1.5 PgC/yr by 2070 for a climate forcing limit of 4.5 Wm−2, corresponding to a 12–67 % change in fossil fuel emissions depending on the scenario. Scenarios with significant afforestation must compensate for albedo-induced warming through additional emissions reductions, and scenarios with significant deforestation need not mitigate as aggressively due to albedo-induced cooling. In all scenarios considered, inclusion of albedo forcing in policy targets increases forest and shrub cover globally.

Published
2015

7. NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set Version 4.0

Author

Richters, O., Kriegler, E., Al Khourdajie, A., Bertram, C., Bresch, D., Ciullo, A., Cornforth, E., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Fuchs, S., Hackstock, P., Holland, D., Hurst, I., Kikstra, J., Klein, D., Kotz, M., Kropf, C., Lewis, J., Liadze, I., Mandaroux, R., Meinshausen, M., Min, J., Nicholls, Z., Piontek, F., Sanchez Juanino, P., Sauer, I., Sferra, F., Stevanović, M., van Ruijven, B., Weigman, P., Westphal, M., Zhao, A., Zwerling, M., Richters, O., Kriegler, E., Al Khourdajie, A., Bertram, C., Bresch, D., Ciullo, A., Cornforth, E., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Fuchs, S., Hackstock, P., Holland, D., Hurst, I., Kikstra, J., Klein, D., Kotz, M., Kropf, C., Lewis, J., Liadze, I., Mandaroux, R., Meinshausen, M., Min, J., Nicholls, Z., Piontek, F., Sanchez Juanino, P., Sauer, I., Sferra, F., Stevanović, M., van Ruijven, B., Weigman, P., Westphal, M., Zhao, A., and Zwerling, M.

Abstract

This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 3 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 3 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways. Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.

Published
2023

12. Hell and High Water: Practice-Relevant Adaptation Science

Author

Moss, R. H., Meehl, G. A., Lemos, M. C., Smith, J. B., Arnold, J. R., Arnott, J. C., Behar, D., Brasseur, G. P., Broomell, S. B., Busalacchi, A. J., Dessai, S., Ebi, K. L., Edmonds, J. A., Furlow, J., Goddard, L., Hartmann, H. C., Hurrell, J. W., Katzenberger, J. W., Liverman, D. M., Mote, P. W., Moser, S. C., Kumar, A., Pulwarty, R. S., Seyller, E. A., Turner, B. L., Washington, W. M., and Wilbanks, T. J.

Published
2013
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13. Annex III: Scenarios and modelling methods

Author

Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., Portugal-Pereira, J., Bosetti, V., Edmonds, J., Fischedick, M., Havlík, P., Jaramillo, P., Krey, V., Lecocq, F., Lucena, A., Meinshausen, M., Mirasgedis, S., O'Neill, B., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J., Rose, S., Saheb, Y., Strbac, G., Hammer Strømman, A., van Vuuren, D.P., Zhou, N., Shukla, A.R., Skea, J., Slade, R., Al Khourdajie, A., van Diemen, R., McCollum, D., Pathak, M., Some, S., Vyas, P., Fradera, R., Belkacemi, M., Hasija, A., Lisboa, G., Luz, S., Malley, J., Guivarch, C., Kriegler, E., Portugal-Pereira, J., Bosetti, V., Edmonds, J., Fischedick, M., Havlík, P., Jaramillo, P., Krey, V., Lecocq, F., Lucena, A., Meinshausen, M., Mirasgedis, S., O'Neill, B., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J., Rose, S., Saheb, Y., Strbac, G., Hammer Strømman, A., van Vuuren, D.P., and Zhou, N.

Abstract

The use of scenarios and modelling methods are pillars in IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) Assessment Reports. Past WGIII assessment report cycles identified knowledge gaps about the integration of modelling across scales and disciplines, mainly between global integrated assessment modelling methods and bottom-up modelling insights of mitigation responses. The need to improve the transparency of model assumptions and enhance the communication of scenario results was also recognised. This annex on Scenarios and Modelling Methods aims to address some of these gaps by detailing the modelling frameworks applied in the WGIII Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) chapters and disclose scenario assumptions and its key parameters. It has been explicitly included in the Scoping Meeting Report of the WGIII contribution to the AR6 and approved by the IPCC Panel at the 46th Session of the Panel.

Published
2022

14. IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Author

Pedersen, J. T. S. van Vuuren, D. Gupta, J. Santos, F. D. Edmonds, J. Swart, R. and Pedersen, J. T. S. van Vuuren, D. Gupta, J. Santos, F. D. Edmonds, J. Swart, R.

Abstract

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.

Published
2022
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15. NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set Version 3.0

Author

Richters, O., Bertram, C., Kriegler, E., Al Khourdajie, A., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Hackstock, P., Holland, D., Hurst, I., Kikstra, J., Lewis, J., Liadze, I., Meinshausen, M., Min, J., Nicholls, Z., Piontek, F., Sauer, I., Sferra, F., Sanchez Juanino, P., van Ruijven, B., Weigman, P., Yu, S., Zhao, A., Zwerling, M., Richters, O., Bertram, C., Kriegler, E., Al Khourdajie, A., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Hackstock, P., Holland, D., Hurst, I., Kikstra, J., Lewis, J., Liadze, I., Meinshausen, M., Min, J., Nicholls, Z., Piontek, F., Sauer, I., Sferra, F., Sanchez Juanino, P., van Ruijven, B., Weigman, P., Yu, S., Zhao, A., and Zwerling, M.

Abstract

This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 3 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 3 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways. Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.

Published
2022

16. Transparency crucial to Paris climate scenarios—Response

Author

Ou, Y., Iyer, G., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Hultman, N., McFarland, J., Waldhoff, S., Gidden, M., McJeon, H., Ou, Y., Iyer, G., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Hultman, N., McFarland, J., Waldhoff, S., Gidden, M., and McJeon, H.

Published
2022

26. Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2 degrees C? Increased ambition and implementation are essential

Author

Ou, Y, Iyer, G, Clarke, L, Edmonds, J, Fawcett, AA, Hultman, N, McFarland, JR, Binsted, M, Cui, R, Fyson, C, Geiges, A, Gonzales-Zuniga, S, Gidden, MJ, Hoehne, N, Jeffery, L, Kuramochi, T, Lewis, J, Meinshausen, M, Nicholls, Z, Patel, P, Ragnauth, S, Rogelj, J, Waldhoff, S, Yu, S, and McJeon, H

Subjects
Multidisciplinary Sciences, CARBON, ENERGY, Science & Technology, LAND-USE, General Science & Technology, MODELS, Science & Technology - Other Topics
Published
2021

49. NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set Version 2.0

Author

Bertram, C., van Ruijven, B., Hilaire, J., Kriegler, E., Clarke, L., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Charles, M., Zhao, A., Sauer, I., Min, J., Piontek, F., Rogelj, J., Sferra, F., Yu, S., Holland, D., Liadze, I., Hurst, I., Bertram, C., van Ruijven, B., Hilaire, J., Kriegler, E., Clarke, L., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Charles, M., Zhao, A., Sauer, I., Min, J., Piontek, F., Rogelj, J., Sferra, F., Yu, S., Holland, D., Liadze, I., and Hurst, I.

Abstract

This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 2 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 2 bespoke scenarios are generated by state-of-the-art well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), namely GCAM, MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM and REMIND-MAgPIE. These models allow the estimation of global and regional mitigation costs, the analysis of energy system transition characteristics, the quantification of investments required to transform the energy system, and the identification of synergies and trade-off of sustainable development pathways. Technical documentation is available to help users access the datasets. The documentation describes the models and variables, as well as provides detailed guidance for database users. Scenario presentation materials and the user guide are also available at the NGFS portal.

Published
2021

50. NGFS Climate Scenarios Data Set

Author

Bertram, C., van Ruijven, B., Hilaire, J., Kriegler, E., Clarke, L., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Charles, M., Zhao, A., Sauer, I., Min, J., Piontek, F., Rogelj, J., Sferra, F., Yu, S., Holland, D., Liadze, I., Hurst, I., Bertram, C., van Ruijven, B., Hilaire, J., Kriegler, E., Clarke, L., Cui, R., Edmonds, J., Charles, M., Zhao, A., Sauer, I., Min, J., Piontek, F., Rogelj, J., Sferra, F., Yu, S., Holland, D., Liadze, I., and Hurst, I.

Abstract

Download information The data is available for download at the NGFS Scenario Explorer. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and commercial use, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information. Version 2.2 (28 June 2021) Correction of Emission and Carbon Price variables at the native region level for the REMIND-MAgPIE 2.1-4.2 model, Net Zero 2050 scenario (see detailed list at the bottom of this message). Correction of historic (pre-2020) global level carbon prices for the REMIND-MAgPIE 2.1-4.2 model in Divergent Net Zero Scenario In the downloadable file names for Downscaled Data, Climate Damages and NIGEM outputs, space characters have been replaced with underscores. Because the url's for these files refer to the file names, the old links for these files no longer work and unregistered users should request new download link. Solved an issue of incorrect displaying of region names for the "REMIND-MAgPIE 2.1-4.2 IntegratedPhysicalDamages (median/95th)" models in the Scenario Explorer. About the data set This dataset contains a set of climate scenario that have been developed for the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). The NGFS is a group of 83 central banks and supervisors and 12 observers committed to sharing best practices, contributing to the development of climate– and environment–related risk management in the financial sector and mobilising mainstream finance to support the transition toward a sustainable economy. The scenarios in this dataset were produced by NGFS Workstream 2 in partnership with an academic consortium from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), the Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH) and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The Phase 2 bespoke scen

Published
2021

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