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Peruvian agriculture will likely experience serious economic impacts of climate change, with changing rainfall and temperature patterns forcing farmers to confront abnormal climate conditions. In this context we study the impact of climate shocks on the agricultural practices of farmers who grow two main staples: maize and potato. We focus on four types of agricultural techniques: (a) those that reduce soil degradation, (b) those that conserve water, (c) the application of inorganic fertilizer, and (d) the application of pesticides and herbicides. We combine three rounds of cross‐sectional data from the Peru National Agricultural Survey with long‐term climate data to construct georeferenced shocks of abnormal rainfall levels and variation. Our empirical strategy controls for time‐invariant characteristics of small localities, secular time trends, and farmer and farm characteristics to estimate how shocks affect farmers' choices in subsequent growing cycles. Our findings show that: (a) farmers reduce soil conservation practices after one year of high rainfall, but multiple years of low rainfall increase adoption significantly; (b) the rate of pesticide use increases by eight percentage points following a drought year but is insensitive to multiple shock years; (c) water conservation measures are used less after high precipitation or when volatility was unusually low, and multiple years of insufficient rain tend to enhance this response; and (d) fertilizer use is less sensitive than other outcomes to weather fluctuations. These findings suggest that understanding how responsive farmers' practices are to weather shocks can inform policy design and help mitigate risks from changing weather patterns.

Credible empirical estimation of the economic impacts of climate change is dependent on data structure (e.g., cross sectional, panel) and the functional relationship between weather data and behavioral outcomes. We show here how these modeling decisions lead to significantly different results when estimating the effects of weather and simulating the potential welfare impacts of climate change on outdoor recreation. Using participation data from 1.6 million households in the United States from 2004 to 2009, we estimate the impact of temperature and precipitation on participation decisions for marine shoreline recreational fishing. Results from linear models suggest temperature positively impacts participation and, by implication, climate change is likely to improve welfare associated with outdoor recreation in all regions of our study area. Conversely, nonlinear specifications suggest more days with extreme heat reduce participation and lead to significant declines in welfare under future climate scenarios. Differences in the treatment of how weather enters recreation participation decisions change both the sign and magnitude of welfare effects by nearly $1 billion annually. Differences in data structure, however, only affect the magnitude of welfare impacts but not the sign. Disaggregation of welfare estimates suggests warmer baseline climates are more susceptible to these choices. Our results demonstrate the critical nature of modeling decisions about data structure and the use of weather data to assess the future impacts of climate change, especially with nonmarket goods where value is related to environmental quality such as outdoor recreation.

This study aims to improve the estimates of the economic impacts of climate change by developing a river flood risk model CLIMRISK-RIVER and introducing it into an existing climate-economy integrated assessment model (IAM). It operates on a local scale and can project climate change-related river flood damage for various socioeconomic, climate and flood adaptation scenarios. Whereas other IAMs have relied on temperature as a climate change proxy, we show that precipitation is a key variable in projecting river flood damage. The way adaptation is accounted for in our flood damage functions has a large influence on the results, highlighting the relevance of modelling local level adaptation in IAMs. Results presented at different spatial scales demonstrate the relevance of river flood damage functions for estimating the economic impacts of climate change and allows for exploration of the spatial distribution of impacts through local estimates.

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Egypt, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries. Where...

Global warming and climate impact on agricultural output, land use and food production. This paper seeks to verify the economic impacts of climate change in the Legal Amazon region, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and job creation. We employ the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter-regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, to assess changes in agricultural production and land use in the region due to climate change scenarios proposed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results indicate a drop in economic indicators in the Legal Amazon leading to a loss in real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to decrease in production and employment in the agricultural sector. Deforestation will increase due to the gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop fields. Such changes are not homogeneous in the space, affecting more the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Para, whose economy are dependent upon agriculture.

This article reviews methods that use historical data on weather, climate, economic activity, and other variables to statistically measure the effect of climate on economic outcomes. This h...

The effects of climate change are increasingly more visible on natural ecosystems. Being mountain forest ecosystems among the most vulnerable and the most affected, they appear to be, at the same time, the most suitable for the assessment of climate change effects on ecosystem services. Assuming this, we review the literature on the economic assessment of climate change impacts on European mountain forests. Initially, the trends in the provision of mountain forest ecosystem services are discussed. We, then, considered the effects on forest structure and tree physiology, these two being strictly associated with the capability of the ecosystem to provide ecosystem services. The results have been grouped into a table that displays the trend, the quality and the quantity of the information found. Subsequently, the main methods that can be employed to assess the economic value of the different ecosystem services have been described. For each method, some implementation examples have been introduced to better understand its functioning. Concluding, the main gaps still existing in literature concerning the effects of climate change on ecosystem services provided by mountain forests have been highlighted. Finally, some more considerations about the existing methods for the economic valuation of ecosystem services have been done.

Climate change is one of the major risks facing developing countries in Africa for which agriculture is a predominant part in the economy. Alterations in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) could lead to a decline in agricultural production in many areas requiring significant changes in agricultural practices and land distribution. The study provided estimates of the economic impacts of climate change, compared these with historical impacts of drought spells, and estimated the extent to which the current Moroccan agricultural development and investment strategy, the Plan Maroc Vert, helps in agricultural adaptation to climate change and uncertainty. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of climate change on the overall economy by using an integrated framework incorporating a computable general equilibrium model. A concomitant factor to climate change will be the increase in population and its distribution and level of consumption, which will also influence agricultural production strategies, the conversion of agricultural land, the type of irrigation, and technological development. We demonstrated how changes in cereal production and area, affluence, and climate (rainfall and temperature) can be acquired for 12 regions of Morocco and used to develop and validate an earth system model in relation to the environment and socio-economic level, which projects their impact on current and potential land use over the next 20 years. We used different mathematical equations based on cereal area and production, population, consumption (kg/person), and change in climate (temperature and rainfall) in bour and irrigated areas for the growing season of 2014 in 12 regions to project agricultural land use over the next 20 years. Therefore, several possible scenarios were investigated to explore how variations in climate change, socio-economic level, and technological development will affect the future of agricultural land use over the next 20 years, which in turn could have important implications for human well-being. Among the 12 Moroccan regions, only 4 had a surplus of cereal production compared to their local consumption. The increase in population will generate a cereal deficit in 2024 and 2034, thus lowering the average annual quantity available per capita of cereals from 204.75 to 160.61 kg/p in 2014 and 2034, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the amount of cereals per person by 5 kg/p and 25 kg/p so that the 2014 production could satisfy the population projected in 2024 and 2034. We found that cereal production will decrease with increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation according to the simulated scenarios, which might not satisfy the growing population in 2024 and 2034. This study provides a practical tool that can be used to provide policy makers with advice on food security assurance policy based on our current knowledge of the impending onset of climate change, including socio-economic statistics and the agricultural constraints of cereals in the 12 regions of Morocco.

We introduce the concept of time of emergence of economic impacts (ToEI), which identifies the initial moment when the climate change impact signal exceeds a previously defined threshold of past economic output shocks in a given geographic area. We compute the ToEI using probabilistic climate change projections and impact functions from three integrated assessment models of climate change: DICE, RICE and CLIMRISK. Our results demonstrate that, in terms of the business-as-usual carbon emissions scenario, the global economy could reach its ToEI by 2095. Regional results highlight areas that are likely to reach the ToEI sooner, namely Western Europe by 2075, India by 2083, and Africa by 2085. We also explore local-scale variations in the ToEI demonstrating that, for example, Paris already reached the ToEI around 2020, while Shanghai will reach it around 2080. We conclude that the ToEI methodology can be applied to impact models of varying scales when sufficient historical impact data are available. Moreover, unprecedented impacts of climate change in the 21st century may be experienced even in economically developed regions in the US and Europe. Finally, moderate to stringent climate change mitigation policies could delay the extreme economic impacts of climate change by three decades in Latin America, the Middle East, and Japan, by two decades in India, Western Europe, and the US, and by one decade in Africa. Our results can be used by policymakers interested in implementing timely climate policies to prevent potentially large economic shocks due to climate change.

There are great uncertainties in the projected economic impacts of climate change1, arising from uncertainties in the climate response2, the climate change mitigation pathway3 and the socioeconomic development pathway4. Although the relative contributions of these factors are important for climate change related decision-making, they are poorly understood. Here, we show to what extent the projected economic impacts of climate change can be attributed to these three factors. Our modelling framework consisting of global, multisectoral impact models coupled with an integrated assessment model enables us to estimate the global total economic impacts of climate change while incorporating these uncertainty sources. Whereas the most pessimistic pathway without mitigation would result in a net economic impact equivalent to 6.6% (3.9–8.6%) of global gross domestic product at the end of this century, the pathways with stringent mitigation would limit the impact to around or less than 1%. Although the uncertainties are great, the climate change mitigation pathway is the dominant factor and socioeconomic developments can also contribute to alleviate the impacts of climate change. These results suggest that decisions on mitigation and development have a great influence in determining the economic impacts of climate change, regardless of the uncertainties in the climate response. Understanding which factors influence future economic impacts from climate change is important for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This study demonstrates that projected economic impacts are primarily attributed to variation in socioeconomic development and future emissions trajectories, rather than uncertainties in the climate response.

Purpose Changes in climate may have both beneficial and harmful effects on crop yields. However, the effects will be more in countries whose economy depends on agriculture. This study aims to measure the economic impacts of climate change on crop farming in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach A Ricardian model was used to estimate the relationship between net crop income and climate variables. Historical climate data and farm household level data from all climatic zones of Bangladesh were collected for this purpose. A regression model was then developed of net crop income per hectare against long-term climate, household and farm variables. Marginal impacts of climate change and potential future impacts of projected climate scenarios on net crop incomes were also estimated. Findings The results revealed that net crop income in Bangladesh is sensitive to climate, particularly to seasonal temperature. A positive effect of temperature rise on net crop income was observed for the farms located in the areas having sufficient irrigation facilities. Estimated marginal impact suggests that 1 mm/month increase in rainfall and 10°C increase in temperature will lead to about US$4-15 increase in net crop income per hectare in Bangladesh. However, there will be significant seasonal and spatial variations in the impacts. The assessment of future impacts under climate change scenarios projected by Global Circulation Models indicated an increase in net crop income from US$25-84 per hectare in the country. Research limitations/implications The findings of this study indicate the need for development practitioners and policy planners to consider both the beneficial and harmful effects of climate change across different climatic zones while designing and implementing the adaptation policies in the country. Originality/value Literature survey of the Web of Science, Science Direct and Google Scholar indicates that this study is the first attempt to measure the economic impacts of climate change on overall crop farming sector in Bangladesh using an econometric model.

In the following, the impacts of climate change on agricultural sector are analyzed through partial ‎equilibrium model and the effects of climate change scenarios on this section will be measured ‎...

Observational evidence shows marine species are shifting their geographic distribution in response to warming ocean temperatures. These shifts have implications for the US fisheries and seafood consumers. The analysis presented here employs a two-stage inverse demand model to estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected increases or decreases in commercial landings for 16 US fisheries from 2021 to 2100, based on the predicted changes in thermally available habitat. The fisheries analyzed together account for 56% of the current US commercial fishing revenues. The analysis compares welfare impacts under two climate scenarios: a high emissions case that assumes limited efforts to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas and a low emissions case that assumes more stringent mitigation. The present value of consumer surplus impacts when discounted at 3% is a net loss of $2.1 billion (2018 US$) in the low emissions case and $4.2 billion in the high emissions scenario. Projected annual losses reach $278–901 million by 2100.

Since its release in 2010, the United States government’s Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) has played a central role in climate policy both domestically and internationally. However, rapid progress in climate science and economics over the last decade mean that it is no longer based on the frontier of understanding. Specifically, extensive new research about the climate, economy, and their relationship has altered understanding about the magnitudes of the projected physical and economic impacts of climate change, as well as their heterogeneity across space and time. This paper provides concrete recommendations on how to rebuild the SCC based on these new advances and return it to the scientific frontier.

This paper estimates the economic impacts of climate change over the Brazilian regions until the end of the century. We estimate the direct and indirect impact of the projected changes in climate on the yield of the country���s main crops. The results point to a broad spatial heterogeneity of impacts across the country. Using the extreme scenarios created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), our predictions indicate that the average annual losses due to climate change range from 0.4% to 1.8% of Brazilian gross domestic product until the end of the century.

Background Scarcity of data on the health impacts and associated economic costs of heat waves may limit the will to invest in adaptation measures. We assessed the economic impact associated with mortality, morbidity, and loss of well-being during heat waves in France between 2015 and 2019. Methods Health indicators monitored by the French national heat wave plan were used to estimate excess visits to emergency rooms and outpatient clinics and hospitalizations for heat-related causes. Total excess mortality and years of life loss were considered, as well as the size of the population that experienced restricted activity. A cost-of-illness and willingness-to-pay approach was used to account for associated costs. Results Between 2015 and 2019, the economic impact of selected health effects of heat waves amounts to €25.5 billion, mainly in mortality (€23.2 billion), minor restricted activity days (€2.3 billion), and morbidity (€0.031 billion). Conclusion The results highlight a significant economic burden on the French health system and the population. A better understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on health is required to alert decision-makers to the urgency of mitigation and to support concrete adaptation actions. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-021-01357-2.

As a small island developing state, the Republic of Mauritius is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the agricultural sector. Agriculture activities constitute 43.3 per cent of total land surface in the mainland of Mauritius and employs 7.2 per cent of the labour force. Being self-sufficient in a few food crops, a decline in agricultural output caused by climate change poses a threat, not only to the livelihoods of farmers, but also to food security. The present study attempts to estimate the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture for the Island of Mauritius. It applies the Ricardian approach on a small territorial scale, motivated by the microclimate system of the island. Using cross-sectional farm data from a sample of 392 farmers, the Ricardian estimates show that the agriculture sector responds negatively to changes in mean summer temperature and precipitation. The economic impacts of a rise in mean temperature by 1 °C is USD26.6 per acre per year with an elasticity of −0.13 evaluated at mean temperature. The elasticity of net farm revenue evaluated at mean precipitation is 0.03. The findings show the vulnerability of a small island to climate change and suggest a need to invest in adaptation measures for farmers in Mauritius.

Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • Projected climate change will impact groundnut yields by −34 to 43% across India. • Adaptation synergies developed showed promising in adverse climate conditions. • Biophysical and economic model integration is crucial for assessment of climate change.

Scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate science and policy. Recent studies find that observed trends and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections of global CO2 emissions have diverged from emission scenario outlooks widely employed in climate research. Here, we quantify the bases for this divergence, focusing on Kaya Identity factors: population, per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), energy intensity (energy consumption/GDP), and carbon intensity (CO2 emissions/energy consumption). We compare 2005–2017 observations and IEA projections to 2040 of these variables, to ‘baseline’ scenario projections from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and from the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) used in the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). We find that the historical divergence of observed CO2 emissions from baseline scenario projections can be explained largely by slower-than-projected per-capita GDP growth—predating the COVID-19 crisis. We also find carbon intensity divergence from baselines in IEA’s projections to 2040. IEA projects less coal energy expansion than the baseline scenarios, with divergence expected to continue to 2100. Future economic growth is uncertain, but we show that past divergence from observations makes it unlikely that per-capita GDP growth will catch up to baselines before mid-century. Some experts hypothesize high enough economic growth rates to allow per-capita GDP growth to catch up to or exceed baseline scenarios by 2100. However, we argue that this magnitude of catch-up may be unlikely, in light of: headwinds such as aging and debt, the likelihood of unanticipated economic crises, the fact that past economic forecasts have tended to over-project, the aftermath of the current pandemic, and economic impacts of climate change unaccounted-for in the baseline scenarios. Our analyses inform the rapidly evolving discussions on climate and development futures, and on uses of scenarios in climate science and policy.

Recent advancements in the availability of models and data to characterize the economic impacts of climate change have improved our ability to project both the physical impacts and economic...

There have been few attempts to look into the economic impacts of climate change in the context of Ethiopia. Although mixed crop-livestock farming is a dominant farming style, most of the studies on climate change, at least in the context of Ethiopia, have emphasized only crop agriculture and disregarded the role of livestock. In this research, we analyze climate change and agricultural productivity in Ethiopia in its broader sense, inclusive of livestock production. We employ a Ricardian approach, estimating three modified versions of the Ricardian model. Results show that warmer temperature is beneficial to livestock agriculture, while it is harmful to the Ethiopian economy from the crop agriculture point of view. Moreover, increasing/decreasing rainfall associated with climate change is damaging to both agricultural activities.

Translating and incorporating climate information into decision-making and policy planning processes is challenging. In tailoring climate data to sector-specific user needs, climate services are seen as key mechanisms for facilitating this translation and incorporation, supporting climate change adaptation and sustainable development. The European water sector is especially in need of tailored climate data for informing climate-smart action and reducing human and economic impacts of climate change. This was the objective of the EU Horizon 2020 Project IMPREX (IMproving PRedictions and management of hydrological EXtremes). The paper shows how pre-identified shortcomings were addressed in the design of climate services in IMPREX, and how this process elucidated new research priorities for improving the effectiveness of climate services. The paper finds the use of participatory methods helped identify stakeholder needs, and advocates for the greater consideration of user and institutional capacity for integrating climate services into decision-making and policy planning processes.

At the end of the twentieth—beginning of the twenty-first century, there are global processes of climate change under the influence of anthropogenic factors. The preservation of these trends entails extreme and almost irreversible consequences. It is obvious that climate change affects agricultural production and its productivity throughout the world. The climate change economy is an innovative direction that emerged at the junction of ecology and economy, where global environmental requirements are conditioned. Agriculture, which is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, can play an important role in mitigating the effects of climate change. The principles of the economy of climate change are aimed at solving two key issues: achieving “improved growth” and achieving an “improved climate”. The objectives of the review are to analyze the global processes of climate change; to study the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Kazakhstan and Turkey; and to consider a system of measures to prevent global climate change in the context of the climate change economy. For reviewing, different literature has been used, such as: IPCC, WMO, WTO, FAO, UNEP, UNFCCC, UNDP, IMF, WB, OECD, KAZHYDROMET, TURKSTAT, IRRI, Committee of the Statistics of the Kazakhstan, and the Turkish State Meteorologic Service reports.

Global warming is now unequivocal (IPCC, 2014). The biophysical and economic impacts of climate change are immediate, negative, and strong in tropical LDCs (Stern, 2007; Cline, 2007; IPCC, 2014). Ethiopia is a case in point where agriculture represents the backbone of the economy. Agriculture employs 75-80% of the country’s labor force (NLFS, 2005; 2013) and contributes to 75-80% of the export earnings and to around 40% of the GDP (NBE, 2016).

The impacts of climate change on water resources availability are expected to be adverse, especially in drier climate regions such as the Mediterranean. Increased water scarcity will exacerbate competition for water resources, not only between sectors but also between countries sharing transboundary river basins. Due to the mutual dependence of the energy sector on water resources and of the water services provision sector on energy inputs, the ‘water-energy’ nexus is acknowledged as a major challenge for the near future – with hydropower representing one of the most direct links in this nexus. The aim of this paper is to assess the economy-wide impacts of the concurrent effects of climate change-driven impacts on water availability and the sectoral and regional competition for scarcer water resources. In order to accomplish that goal, an integrated modelling approach is developed, where a computable general equilibrium model including raw water as a production factor is linked to TIMES_PT, a bottom-up model of the energy sector. A case study is provided for the Mediterranean country of Portugal. Results for 2050 show that macroeconomic impacts are significant, and encompass important inter-sectoral differences that, in turn, depend on the degree of competition between sectors. Impacts are stronger when water consumption by Spanish sectors is considered, as this intensifies water scarcity in Portugal. Thus the paper allows to gain insight in the broader ‘water-energy-economy’ nexus and the additional costs that the dependence on water resources availability in transboundary river basins represents to an economy – both aspects being of utmost importance for climate adaptation and energy policy making.

The ultimate impact of climate change on human systems will depend on the natural resilience of ecosystems on which societies rely as well as on adaptation measures taken by agents, individually and collectively. No sector of the economy is more reliant on climate than agriculture. Evidence from the American settlement process suggests that societies can successfully adapt to new climatic environments. Whether and how much agriculture will manage to adapt to a changing climate remains an open question in the empirical economics literature, however. This article reviews the existing evidence on weather and/or climate impacts on agricultural outcomes from the economics literature, with a focus on methodological questions. Some key econometric issues associated with climate impact measurement are discussed. We also outline important questions that have not been adequately addressed and suggest directions for future research.

Changes in snow and glacier melt and precipitation patterns are expected to alter the water flow of rivers at various spatial and temporal scales. Hydropower generation and fisheries are likely to be impacted annually and over the century by seasonal, as well as long-term changes, in hydrological conditions. In order to quantify the effect of climate changes on hydropower and fisheries, we developed an integrated assessment framework that links biophysical models (positive degree-day model, hydrologic model, run-of-river power system model, and fishery suitability index) and economic models. This framework was used to demonstrate the framework’s utility for gaining insights into the impacts of changed river flow on hydropower and fisheries of the Trishuli River in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) Region (from the Hindu Kush and Tien Shan mountain ranges in the west to the Eastern Himalaya). Remotely sensed and in situ data were used to quantify changes in snow and glacier melt in Langtang glacier and resultant change in hydrologic flow in the Trishuli River upstream of the Trishuli hydropower plant. Future discharges were projected using climate data derived from the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric model with 50-km resolution in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5 climate scenarios. Results suggest that, in the future, the Trishuli River will experience modest increases in the economic value of the hydropower resource and fisheries as a result of higher snow and glacial melt. Increased flow in the months of March and April attributed to increased glacier melt translated to an increase in electricity generation. However increased flow in June and July when the snow and glacial melt peak is coupled with monsoon precipitation could not be fully utilized due to hydropower plant capacity constraints. Fishery suitability in the Trishuli River would be greater than 70% of optimal under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Power economic results do not vary significantly for the next thirty years because flow increases under RCP 8.5 and resultant energy production are more pronounced in the later part of the century. The framework utilized in this study can be expanded in the future to analyze hydropower infrastructure as well as fisheries conservation in the upstream HMA basins from Afghanistan through Bhutan.

Recent studies have assessed the ecological effects of climate change on boreal forests; however, our understanding of the economic impacts of climate change on timber supply remains limited. Forestry is an important boreal industry; hence, it is necessary to better understand the ecological impacts that directly and indirectly affect this sector. We reviewed published literature concerning ecological impacts of climate change on biome shifts, regional forest disturbances, and tree growth, mortality and species compositional shifts in established forest stands. Subsequently, we examined how each factor influences timber supply and forestry. Tree species ranges have been and will continue migrating north to find more suitable growing conditions, but at a slower rate than climate change. Biome shifts from forests to shrub or grasslands may occur under persistent drought conditions. Warmer temperatures and lower climate moisture availability increase forest disturbances; notably fire and insect outbreaks, creating younger forests dominated by pioneer species and limiting harvestable material. While tree growth and mortality rates are spatially variable across established forest regions, tree mortality has temporally increased with climate change; accompanied by reduced growth or increased growth at a rate lower than mortality loss, resulting in a reduced rate of volume accumulation and timber available for harvest. Moreover, climate change favors pioneer species (Pinus spp. and Populus spp.) over late successional species (Picea spp. and Abies spp.). Our findings suggest that climate change has strong negative effects on boreal timber supply but may prompt operational adaptations, opening opportunities for forest industry to incorporate species such as Populus.

Purpose- The agricultural sector is one of the sectors most sensitive to climate change. This sector is directly affected by temperature and precipitation, which is an input in agricultural production. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of climate change in agricultural production in Turkey. Methodology- The data cover the period 1961-2013. In this study, economic effects of climate change on agriculture were analyzed for Turkey using a time series approach. Findings- The increase in precipitation affects agricultural GDP positively, while the increase in temperature has a negative effect on agricultural GDP. Conclusion- In order to minimize the adverse effects of climate change in Turkey, which is one of the largest countries in the world in terms of agricultural land, it is important to establish policies, strategies, plans and programs to combat climate change.

Climate change may have detrimental effects on income from crop farming in Pakistan and according to the IPCC (2014), the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the coming years. Despite a few studies we still have limited knowledge on how climate change can impact the crop farming economy in Pakistan. Considering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan as the study area, we attempted to fill this gap by analyzing the economic impacts of climate change on the net income from crop farming. Data from the 635 farm households and also climatic variables data were collected from five agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of the KP. The Ricardian method was employed for analysis purposes. The results revealed that the increase of annual average temperature and decreases in rainfall is strongly associated with net revenue deficits. The effects of increasing precipitation are observed to be useful but an increase in temperature is forecasted to be harmful to the net revenue. The effect of increased temperature in the summer season on NR ranged between US$-29 to US$35, and the effect in the winter season ranged between US$-14 to US$28 per hectare. The effect of decreased annual precipitation on NR in the summer season and winter season ranged between US$ 0 to US$-24 and US$

Climate change affects crop production by distorting the indestructible productive power of the land. The objective of this study is to examine the economic impacts of climate change on net crop income in Nile Basin Ethiopia using a Ricardian fixed effect approach employing the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) household survey data for Ethiopia in 2015 and 2016. The survey samples were obtained through a three-stage stratified sampling technique from the five regions (Amhara, Tigray, Benishangul Gumuz, Oromia, and Southern Nation Nationality and People (SNNP) along the Nile basin Ethiopia. There are only 12–14% female household heads while there are 80–86% male households in the regions under study. In the regions, more than half of (64%) the household heads are illiterate and almost only one-tenth of them (12%) had received remittance from abroad from their relatives or children. Crop variety adoption rate is minimal, adopted by the 31% of farmers. Only 30% of the surveyed farmers mentioned that they planted their crop seeds in row whereas the rest 70% had not applied this method. The regression results from the fixed effect least square dummy variable model showed that literacy, household size, remittance, asset value, and total land holdings have significant and positive impacts on the net crop income per hectare. The regional dummy variables estimate indicated that all the regions are negatively affected by climate change at varying levels. Strategies to climate change adaptation have significant and positive contributions in leveraging the damaging effects of climate change. The results also showed that increased winter and summer temperature and rainfall increase net crop income per hectare. The estimated coefficient of the interaction term of spring temperature and rainfall is significant and negative. On the other hand, while the mean annual temperature is damaging to crops, annual rainfall is beneficial. It can be deduced that, while increased temperature and rainfall in summer and winter increase the net crop income, the converse is true for winter and spring seasons. The study also proposes a specific, context-dependent, farm-level adaptation analysis of how farmers cope with the different climatic impacts of the Nile Basin and maintain the income levels that they have previously enjoyed.

As major tourism economies in the Southern Mediterranean, Greece, Spain, and Turkey are particularly vulnerable to climate change. With mounting evidence of climate change, we study if the negative impact of climate change on Greece, Spain, and Turkey is particularly large. Empirically, we use a unique data set that makes temperature measurement more meaningful, and adopt the model in Ng and Zhao (Ecological Economics 70:963–970, 2011) to estimate the economic impacts of climate change on different types of economies. Our main finding is that climate change’s adverse impact on Greece, Spain, and Turkey is larger than its impacts on other types of economies, suggesting that Greece, Spain, and Turkey should engage in strong international cooperation to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change.

Climate change may pose serious challenges to the economies of Central Asian countries, but in-depth studies on a national level are lacking. The paper is aimed to contribute filling this gap and devoted to assessing the economic impacts of climate change in selected areas of Central Asia. The methods of the desk study and documental analysis are used to summarize the adverse effects of climate change in rural livelihoods. Moreover, the preliminary results of the survey conducted in selected regions of Fergana valley within MikroKlima project used as a corresponding data for economic impact analysis on a household level. The results reveal that the effects of unfavorable weather conditions uneven for short and long term, and across Central Asia. Moreover, the most potential damage from climate change will affect the rural population, and there is also a high positive correlation between water shortage, increased aridity, and poverty, aggravated by climate change.

Adaptation is necessary to cope with or take advantage of the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. Relatively little is known about how successful these decisions are likely to be in meeting demands for ecosystem services in an uncertain future. We explore adaptation to global change in the forestry sector using CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that represents large-scale land-use dynamics, based on the demand and supply of ecosystem services. Future impacts and adaptation within the Swedish forestry sector were simulated for scenarios of socio-economic change (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) and climatic change (Representative Concentration Pathways, for three climate models), between 2010 and 2100. Substantial differences were found in the competitiveness and coping ability of land owners implementing different management strategies through time. Generally, multi-objective management was found to provide the best basis for adaptation. Across large regions, however, a combination of management strategies was better at meeting ecosystem service demands. Results also show that adaptive capacity evolves through time in response to external (global) drivers and interactions between individual actors. This suggests that process-based models are more appropriate for the study of autonomous adaptation and future adaptive and coping capacities than models based on indicators, discrete time snapshots or exogenous proxies. Nevertheless, a combination of planned and autonomous adaptation by institutions and forest owners is likely to be more successful than either group acting alone.

Cutting-edge contributions intended to guide major decisions on investment and energy policy is relevant for climate change research. This study develops an innovative approach that combines three physical climate simulations (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, Goddard Institute of Space Studies model, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office climate model) with a general equilibrium model of global trade in order to study the real economic impacts of climate change. For the most part, climate change projected up to the year 2060 leads to welfare gains in the range of 0.07–1.4%, and welfare losses between 0.04 and 2.2% in some cases. All three climate simulations, point to welfare gains in China and marginal losses in low- and middle-income countries as a result of climate change. These findings underscore the importance of properly accounting for the direct effect of CO2 on crop growth and farm level adaptation, as ignoring these leads to substantial welfare losses in all examined regions. While a more systematic trade-off analysis is required for making strong generalizations, the broadest conclusion from the applied models is that, as long as CO2 fertilization effects and farm level adaptation are fairly included with the simulations, global agriculture does not appear to be particularly threatened by climate change. For this reason, agricultural policies aimed at mitigating CO2 emissions but problematic to food security, especially in developing countries, should be treated with caution.

Climate change shifts the distributions of a set of climatic variables, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, sunshine duration, and evaporation. This paper explores the importance of those additional climatic variables other than temperature and precipitation. Using the county-level agricultural data from 1980 to 2010 in China, we find that those additional climatic variables, especially humidity and wind speed, are critical for crop growth. Therefore, omitting those variables is likely to bias the predicted impacts of climate change on crop yields. In particular, omitting humidity tends to overpredict the cost of climate change on crop yields, while ignoring wind speed is likely to underpredict the effect. Our preferred specification indicates that climate change is likely to decrease the yields of rice, wheat, and corn in China by 36.25%, 18.26%, and 45.10%, respectively, by the end of this century.

Climate change damage (or, more correctly, impact) functions relate variations in temperature (or other climate variables) to economic impacts in various dimensions, and are at the basis of quantitative modeling exercises for the assessment of climate change policies. This document provides a summary of results from a series of meta-analyses aimed at estimating parameters for six specific damage functions, referring to: sea level rise, agricultural productivity, heat effects on labor productivity, human health, tourism flows, and households' energy demand. All parameters of the damage functions are estimated for each of the 140 countries and regions in the Global Trade Analysis Project 9 data set. To illustrate the salient characteristics of the estimates, the change in real gross domestic product is approximated for the different effects, in all regions, corresponding to an increase in average temperature of +3°C. After considering the overall impact, the paper highlights which factor is the most significant one in each country, and elaborates on the distributional consequences of climate change.

Climate change has a strong influence on agriculture and will continue to do so in the years to come. As a result, significant social costs are generated. These effects may be eliminated by implementing various types of adaptation measures. However, the measures are also associated with costs and it is necessary to evaluate whether generated benefits and prevented climate change costs outweigh them. This contribution studies economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in the South Moravian region in a period of 2017−2040. Four scenarios are analysed based on combinations of the following states of a world (i) climate change worsens the current situation or there is no change; (ii) adaptation measures are implemented or the status quo is maintained. The scenarios are modelled based on an anthropocentric approach using a modified cost-benefit analysis and the concept of ecosystem services. The economic analysis covers investment costs, operating costs, loss of profits due to decreasing production and other costs. The benefits side consists mainly of regulation services prevented loss (thanks to lower soil erosion or better water retention), improved air quality as well as external benefits such as higher biodiversity. Based on measures effectiveness and costs, expected net present social benefits were calculated for each of the scenarios. The results showed that implementing the measures is always profitable regardless of climate change. Under no shift in climate change the estimated social loss until 2040 is 6.6 billion CZK with no measures implemented. If the situation regarding climate change becomes more serious, the net loss rises to 9.5 billion CZK. However, the implementation of adaptation measures leads to positive outcomes and is associated with net social benefits of 2.1 billion CZK if it is necessary to battle climate change and to barely positive outcome when climate change does not accelerate. The analysis confirms that implementation of adaptation measures is profitable either way (especially if climate change becomes more serious) and can serve as an argument in political decision-making as these measures appear to maintain sustainability of agricultural land use.

The literature on the potential impacts of climate change on the health of outdoor workers has received limited attention as a whole, and in sub-Saharan African countries in particular. Yet, substantial numbers of workers are experiencing the health effects of elevated temperature, in combination with changes in precipitation patterns, climate extremes and the effects of air pollution, which have a potential impact on their safety and wellbeing. With increased temperatures within urban settlements and frequent heats waves, there has been a sudden rise in the occurrence of heat-related illness leading to higher levels of mortality, as well as other adverse health impacts. This paper discusses the impacts of extreme heat exposure and health concerns among outdoor workers, and the resultant impacts on their productivity and occupational safety in tropical developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa, where there is a dearth of such studies. Aside from the direct effects caused by extreme heat exposure, other indirect health hazards associated with increasing heat among this group includes exposures to hazardous chemicals and other vector-borne diseases. In addition, reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs will continue to rise and hinder economic and social development in such countries. There is an urgent need for further studies around the health and economic impacts of climate change in the workplace, especially in tropical developing countries, which may guide the implementation of the measures needed to address the problem.

The concept of “environmental determinism” suggests that climate conditions played a substantial role in shaping modern society. To minimize the social costs of future climate change and to promote economic development through identification of cost-effective adaptation strategies and mitigation policies, quantitative assessments are needed for obtaining a better understanding of the causal impacts of climate change on human society. In this work, we estimate the economic impacts of climate change during the 21st century under nine CMIP6 scenarios, using the PAGE-ICE integrated assessment model driven by the latest anthropogenic emission and socio-economic projections. Our results show that the largest climate change damages occur under the SSP3-7.0 scenario (involving regional rivalry and high anthropogenic emissions), followed by the SSP3-LowNTCF scenario (which considers significantly reduced NTCF emissions), and that climate change damage costs are expected to grow much faster than global GDP (reaching ~47% of global GDP in 2100). Gaps in adaptation resulting from regional inequalities would lead to higher climate change damages in poorer and warmer regions such as Africa and the Middle East. The outcomes obtained under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, in which the warming limit targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C set forth in the Paris Agreement are considered, respectively, reveal that aggressive mitigation strategies pass a cost-benefit analysis and could significantly reduce the economic impacts of climate change.

Climate change is a difficult fact to deny; because agriculture is a biological industry that is particularly sensitive to any climatic changes, as crops are geographically, thermally and humid, which is expected to have a negative effect on production and therefore a greater difficulty in self-sufficiency and food gap than crops, Which are particularly sensitive to climate change such as tomato crop and food gap crops such as bean crop. The economic impacts of climate change on study crops and future status should be determined.The study found that there is a negative effect of the average temperature on the productivity of the bean yield, while the positive effect of rainfall on the productivity of the bean crop. There was also a negative effect of rainfall and moisture on the productivity of winter tomatoes, but the effect of the average temperature on winter tomato production was positive. The effect of the average temperature and humidity on tomato production was found to be negative. The scenarios also show that the productivity deficit can be compensated by increasing the area planted with the crops.

Climate change mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have associated costs, but there are also potential benefits from improved air quality, such as public health improvements and the associated cost savings. A multidisciplinary modeling approach can better assess the co-benefits from climate mitigation for human health and provide a justifiable basis for establishment of adequate climate change mitigation policies and public health actions. An integrated research framework was adopted by combining a computable general equilibrium model, an air quality model, and a health impact assessment model, to explore the long-term economic impacts of climate change mitigation in South Korea through 2050. Mitigation costs were further compared with health-related economic benefits under different socioeconomic and climate change mitigation scenarios. Achieving ambitious targets (i.e., stabilization of the radiative forcing level at 3.4 W/m2) would cost 1.3–8.5 billion USD in 2050, depending on varying carbon prices from different integrated assessment models. By contrast, achieving these same targets would reduce costs by 23 billion USD from the valuation of avoided premature mortality, 0.14 billion USD from health expenditures, and 0.38 billion USD from reduced lost work hours, demonstrating that health benefits alone noticeably offset the costs of cutting GHG emissions in South Korea. Keywords: Climate mitigation, Air pollution, Health impact assessment, Co-benefit analysis, CGE, IMED Model

Top-down economic models, such as computable general equilibrium models, are the common tools to assess the economic impacts of climate change policies. However, these models are incapable of representing the detailed technological characteristics of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic impacts measured by the top-down economic models are likely to be overestimated. This study attempts to quantify the overestimation by measuring the economic impacts linking the top-down model with a bottom-up engineering model for the energy sector. The study uses meeting China's pledges under the Paris Agreement for testing this hypothesis. The study shows that the economic impacts measured by the stand-alone top-down model are almost three times as high as those resulting from the model after linking it with the bottom-up model. However, the findings are sensitive to the assumptions and existing or planned policies on energy technologies considered in the bottom-up model.

Much micro-econometric evidence suggests that precipitation has wide ranging impacts on vital economic indicators such as agricultural yields, human capital, and even conflict. And yet paradoxically most macro-econometric evidence (especially in the climate economy literature) finds that precipitation has no robust and significant impact on various measures of aggregate economic output. This paper argues that spatial aggregation of weather at the country level explains this result. The paper uses annual subnational gross domestic product data to show a concave relationship between precipitation and local gross domestic product growth between 1990 and 2014. It then demonstrates that when the data are aggregated at larger spatial scales, the impact decreases and eventually vanishes. The impact of precipitation on aggregate economic activity is predominantly felt in developing countries; it is insignificant in developed countries. Agriculture is found to be the dominant pathway. The results have significant consequences for measuring the economic impacts of climate change.

The adverse effects of extreme disasters on crop production, often assessed using crop models or field experiments, may be overestimated as these methods focus on natural impacts while ignoring the behavioral changes of farmers and international traders. This study takes barley as an example and uses GTAP model (a global economic equilibrium model) to showcase the role of the behavioral changes and to assess the economic impact of climate change on crop production after the occurrence of most extreme disasters. The results show that under RCP 8.5, the impact of extreme disasters on barley yields in China and Australia are –12% and –25.8%, respectively. After considering farmers and international traders’ behavioral change, the effects of climate change on barley production in China and Australia are reduced to –0.38% and –3.5%, respectively. Variations in production level mainly depend on the extent of farmers’ ability to expand barley sown area and the severity of government intervention in agricultural exports. In order to reduce the impact of disasters on food supply, it is necessary to give full play to the role of market mechanisms and to reduce government interventions in trade.

There are still many uncertainties regarding the possible influences of global climate change in the mid-latitude regions, owing to rather limited research and lack of empirical evidence. This paper systematically evaluates the economic impacts of climate variation by constructing a 27-year panel dataset of 274 prefecture cities and 816 weather stations in China. Our results document some significant climate-economic relationships, with the increase of 1℃-temperature, 100mm-rainfall, and 1%-humidity associated with a 0.78% decrease, 0.86% increase and 1.34% decrease in output, respectively. Higher temperature damages are reflected in less-developed regions, while the positive impacts of rainfall mainly appear in more-developed regions. Using integrated assessment models, we project that the model-average climate damage of China may account for up to 4.23 percent of GDP by 2100, based on a nonlinear historical climate-economic interaction.

First online; International audience; We integrate the combined agricultural production effects of forecasted changes in CO2, temperature and precipitation into a multi-regional, country-wide partial equilibrium positive mathematical programming model. By conducting a meta-analysis of 2103 experimental observations from 259 agronomic studies we estimate production functions relating yields to CO2 concentration and temperature for 55 crops. We apply the model to simulate climate change in Israel based on 15 agricultural production regions. Downscaled projections for CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation were derived from three general circulation models and four representative concentration pathways, showing temperature increase and precipitation decline throughout most of the county during the future periods 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. Given the constrained regional freshwater and non-freshwater quotas, farmers will adapt by partial abandonment of agriculture lands, increasing focus on crops grown in controlled environments at the expense of open-field and rain-fed crops. Both agricultural production and prices decline, leading to reduced agricultural revenues; nevertheless, production costs reduce at a larger extent such that farming profits increase. As total consumer surplus also augments, overall social welfare rises. We find that this outcome is reversed if the positive fertilization effects of increased CO2 concentrations are overlooked.

Recent evidence suggests that climate change will significantly affect economic growth and several productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and land1–4. Although historical records indicate that economic shocks might lead to financial instability, few studies have focused on the impact of climate change on the financial actors5,6. This paper examines how climate-related damages impact the stability of the global banking system. We use an agent-based climate–macroeconomic model calibrated on stylized facts, future scenarios and climate impact functions7 affecting labour and capital. Our results indicate that climate change will increase the frequency of banking crises (26–248%). Rescuing insolvent banks will cause an additional fiscal burden of approximately 5–15% of gross domestic product per year and increase the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product by a factor of 2. We estimate that around 20% of such effects are caused by the deterioration of banks’ balance sheets induced by climate change. Macroprudential regulation attenuates bailout costs, but only moderately. Our results show that leaving the financial system out of climate–economy integrated assessment may lead to an underestimation of climate impacts and that financial regulation can play a role in mitigating them. Increasingly, financial institutions will be exposed to climate risks that will exacerbate the negative economic impacts of climate change. An agent-based integrated assessment model is used to analyse climate impacts on the global banking system, finding an increase in banking crises and public bailout costs.