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1. Quantifying the human cost of global warming

Author

Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Abrams, J.F.., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K.L., Dunn, R.R., Svenning, J.-C., Scheffer, M., Lenton, T.M., Xu, C., Abrams, J.F.., Ghadiali, A., Loriani, S., Sakschewski, B., Zimm, C., Ebi, K.L., Dunn, R.R., Svenning, J.-C., and Scheffer, M.

Abstract

The costs of climate change are often estimated in monetary terms, but this raises ethical issues. Here we express them in terms of numbers of people left outside the ‘human climate niche’—defined as the historically highly conserved distribution of relative human population density with respect to mean annual temperature. We show that climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. By end-of-century (2080–2100), current policies leading to around 2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22–39%) of people outside the niche. Reducing global warming from 2.7 to 1.5 °C results in a ~5-fold decrease in the population exposed to unprecedented heat (mean annual temperature ≥29 °C). The lifetime emissions of ~3.5 global average citizens today (or ~1.2 average US citizens) expose one future person to unprecedented heat by end-of-century. That person comes from a place where emissions today are around half of the global average. These results highlight the need for more decisive policy action to limit the human costs and inequities of climate change.

Published
2023
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2. Ten new insights in climate science 2023/2024

Author

Bustamante, M., Roy, J., Ospina, D., Achakulwisut, P., Aggarwal, A., Bastos, A., Broadgate, W., Canadell, J.G., Carr, E.R., Chen, D., Cleugh, H.A., Ebi, K.L., Edwards, C., Farbotko, C., Fernández-Martínez, M., Frölicher, T.L., Fuss, S., Geden, O., Gruber, N., Harrington, L.J., Hauck, J., Hausfather, Z., Hebden, S., Hebinck, A., Huq, S., Huss, M., Jamero, M.L.P., Juhola, S., Kumarasinghe, N., Lwasa, S., Mallick, B., Martin, M., McGreevy, S., Mirazo, P., Mukherji, A., Muttitt, G., Nemet, G.F., Obura, D., Okereke, C., Oliver, T., Orlove, B., Ouedraogo, N.S., Patra, P.K., Pelling, M., Pereira, L.M., Persson, Å., Pongratz, J., Prakash, A., Rammig, A., Raymond, C., Redman, A., Reveco, C., Rockström, J., Rodrigues, R., Rounce, D.R., Schipper, E.L.F., Schlosser, P., Selomane, O., Semieniuk, G., Shin, Y.-J., Siddiqui, T.A., Singh, V., Sioen, G.B., Sokona, Y., Stammer, D., Steinert, N.J., Suk, S., Sutton, R., Thalheimer, L., Thompson, V., Trencher, G., van der Geest, K., Werners, S.E., Wübbelmann, T., Wunderling, N., Yin, J., Zickfeld, K., Zscheischler, Jakob, Bustamante, M., Roy, J., Ospina, D., Achakulwisut, P., Aggarwal, A., Bastos, A., Broadgate, W., Canadell, J.G., Carr, E.R., Chen, D., Cleugh, H.A., Ebi, K.L., Edwards, C., Farbotko, C., Fernández-Martínez, M., Frölicher, T.L., Fuss, S., Geden, O., Gruber, N., Harrington, L.J., Hauck, J., Hausfather, Z., Hebden, S., Hebinck, A., Huq, S., Huss, M., Jamero, M.L.P., Juhola, S., Kumarasinghe, N., Lwasa, S., Mallick, B., Martin, M., McGreevy, S., Mirazo, P., Mukherji, A., Muttitt, G., Nemet, G.F., Obura, D., Okereke, C., Oliver, T., Orlove, B., Ouedraogo, N.S., Patra, P.K., Pelling, M., Pereira, L.M., Persson, Å., Pongratz, J., Prakash, A., Rammig, A., Raymond, C., Redman, A., Reveco, C., Rockström, J., Rodrigues, R., Rounce, D.R., Schipper, E.L.F., Schlosser, P., Selomane, O., Semieniuk, G., Shin, Y.-J., Siddiqui, T.A., Singh, V., Sioen, G.B., Sokona, Y., Stammer, D., Steinert, N.J., Suk, S., Sutton, R., Thalheimer, L., Thompson, V., Trencher, G., van der Geest, K., Werners, S.E., Wübbelmann, T., Wunderling, N., Yin, J., Zickfeld, K., and Zscheischler, Jakob

Abstract

Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communica

Published
2023

3. Achieving a nature- and people-positive future

Author

Obura, D.O., DeClerck, F., Verburg, P.H., Gupta, J., Abrams, J.F., Bai, X., Bunn, S., Ebi, K.L., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Jacobson, L., Lenton, T.M., Liverman, D., Mohamed, A., Prodani, K., Rocha, J.C., Rockstrom, J., Sakschewski, B., Stewart-Koster, B., van Vuuren, D., Winkelmann, R., Zimm, C., Obura, D.O., DeClerck, F., Verburg, P.H., Gupta, J., Abrams, J.F., Bai, X., Bunn, S., Ebi, K.L., Gifford, L., Gordon, C., Jacobson, L., Lenton, T.M., Liverman, D., Mohamed, A., Prodani, K., Rocha, J.C., Rockstrom, J., Sakschewski, B., Stewart-Koster, B., van Vuuren, D., Winkelmann, R., and Zimm, C.

Abstract

Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, we have not succeeded in “bending the curve” of biodiversity decline. Efforts to meet new targets and goals for the next three decades risk repeating this outcome due to three factors: neglect of increasing drivers of decline; unrealistic expectations and time frames of biodiversity recovery; and insufficient attention to justice within and between generations and across countries. Our Earth system justice approach identifies six sets of actions that when tackled simultaneously address these failings: (1) reduce and reverse direct and indirect drivers causing decline; (2) halt and reverse biodiversity loss; (3) restore and regenerate biodiversity to a safe state; (4) raise minimum wellbeing for all; (5) eliminate over-consumption and excesses associated with accumulation of capital; and (6) uphold and respect the rights and responsibilities of all communities, present and future. Current conservation campaigns primarily address actions 2 and 3, with urgent upscaling of actions 1, 4, 5, and 6 needed to help deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Published
2022

5. The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

Author

Romanello, M., McGushin, A., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Hughes, N., Jamart, L., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Solano Rodriguez, B., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Chu, L., Ciampi, L., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Grace, D., Graham, H., Gunther, S.H., Hartinger, S., He, K., Heaviside, C., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Jankin, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lee, J.K.W., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Mohajeri, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R.N., Semenza, J.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Trinanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wagner, F., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Yglesias, M., Zhang, S., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Hamilton, I., Romanello, M., McGushin, A., Di Napoli, C., Drummond, P., Hughes, N., Jamart, L., Kennard, H., Lampard, P., Solano Rodriguez, B., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Belesova, K., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Chu, L., Ciampi, L., Dalin, C., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Dominguez-Salas, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Grace, D., Graham, H., Gunther, S.H., Hartinger, S., He, K., Heaviside, C., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Jankin, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lee, J.K.W., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McMichael, C., Mi, Z., Milner, J., Minor, K., Mohajeri, N., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Obradovich, N., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Salas, R.N., Semenza, J.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Trinanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wagner, F., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Yglesias, M., Zhang, S., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., and Hamilton, I.

Published
2021

6. Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet

Author

Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Lenton, T.M., Qin, D., Lade, S.J., Abrams, J.F., Jacobson, L., Rocha, J.C., Zimm, C., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bringezu, S., Broadgate, W., Bunn, S.E., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K.L., Gong, P., Gordon, C., Kanie, N., Liverman, D.M., Nakicenovic, N., Obura, D., Ramanathan, V., Verburg, P.H., van Vuuren, D.P., Winkelmann, R., Rockström, J., Gupta, J., Lenton, T.M., Qin, D., Lade, S.J., Abrams, J.F., Jacobson, L., Rocha, J.C., Zimm, C., Bai, X., Bala, G., Bringezu, S., Broadgate, W., Bunn, S.E., DeClerck, F., Ebi, K.L., Gong, P., Gordon, C., Kanie, N., Liverman, D.M., Nakicenovic, N., Obura, D., Ramanathan, V., Verburg, P.H., van Vuuren, D.P., and Winkelmann, R.

Abstract

Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, in order to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a ‘safe and just corridor’ that meets these goals. Although ‘safe’ and ‘just’ Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.

Published
2021

7. The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises

Author

Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beagley, J., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Coleman, S., Dalin, C., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Di Napoli, C., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Golder, S., Grace, D., Graham, H., Haggar, P., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Hughes, N., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kennard, H., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lampard, P., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., McMichael, C., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Quinn, R., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Romanello, M., Semenza, K.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Triñanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., Costello, A., Watts, N., Amann, M., Arnell, N., Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Beagley, J., Belesova, K., Boykoff, M., Byass, P., Cai, W., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Capstick, S., Chambers, J., Coleman, S., Dalin, C., Daly, M., Dasandi, N., Dasgupta, S., Davies, M., Di Napoli, C., Dominguez-Salas, P., Drummond, P., Dubrow, R., Ebi, K.L., Eckelman, M., Ekins, P., Escobar, L.E., Georgeson, L., Golder, S., Grace, D., Graham, H., Haggar, P., Hamilton, I., Hartinger, S., Hess, J., Hsu, S.-C., Hughes, N., Jankin Mikhaylov, S., Jimenez, M.P., Kelman, I., Kennard, H., Kiesewetter, G., Kinney, P.L., Kjellstrom, T., Kniveton, D., Lampard, P., Lemke, B., Liu, Y., Liu, Z., Lott, M., Lowe, R., Martinez-Urtaza, J., Maslin, M., McAllister, L., McGushin, A., McMichael, C., Milner, J., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Morrissey, K., Munzert, S., Murray, K.A., Neville, T., Nilsson, M., Sewe, M.O., Oreszczyn, T., Otto, M., Owfi, F., Pearman, O., Pencheon, D., Quinn, R., Rabbaniha, M., Robinson, E., Rocklöv, J., Romanello, M., Semenza, K.C., Sherman, J., Shi, L., Springmann, M., Tabatabaei, M., Taylor, J., Triñanes, J., Shumake-Guillemot, J., Vu, B., Wilkinson, P., Winning, M., Gong, P., Montgomery, H., and Costello, A.

Abstract

The Lancet Countdown is an international collaboration established to provide an independent, global monitoring system dedicated to tracking the emerging health profile of the changing climate. The 2020 report presents 43 indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. This report represents the findings and consensus of the 35 leading academic institutions and UN agencies that make up The Lancet Countdown, and draws on the expertise of climate scientists, geographers, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport, economists, social, and political scientists, data scientists, public health professionals, and doctors.

Published
2021

8. Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions

Author

Hess, J.J., Ranadive, N., Boyer, C., Aleksandrowicz, L., Anenberg, S.C., Aunan, K., Belesova, K., Bell, M.L., Bickersteth, S., Bowen, K., Burden, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Carlton, E., Cissé, G., Cohen, F., Dai, H., Dangour, A.D., Dasgupta, P., Frumkin, H., Gong, P., Gould, R.J., Haines, A., Hales, S., Hamilton, I., Hasegawa, T., Hashizume, M., Honda, Y., Horton, D.E., Karambelas, A., Kim, H., Kim, S.E., Kinney, P.L., Kone, I., Knowlton, K., Lelieveld, J., Limaye, V.S., Liu, Q., Madaniyazi, L., Martinez, M.E., Mauzerall, D.L., Milner, J., Neville, T., Nieuwenhuijsen, M., Pachauri, S., Perera, F., Pineo, H., Remais, J.V., Saari, R.K., Sampedro, J., Scheelbeek, P., Schwartz, J., Shindell, D., Shyamsundar, P., Taylor, T.J., Tonne, C., Van Vuuren, D., Wang, C., Watts, N., West, J.J., Wilkinson, P., Wood, S.A., Woodcock, J., Woodward, A., Xie, Y., Zhang, Y., Ebi, K.L., Hess, J.J., Ranadive, N., Boyer, C., Aleksandrowicz, L., Anenberg, S.C., Aunan, K., Belesova, K., Bell, M.L., Bickersteth, S., Bowen, K., Burden, M., Campbell-Lendrum, D., Carlton, E., Cissé, G., Cohen, F., Dai, H., Dangour, A.D., Dasgupta, P., Frumkin, H., Gong, P., Gould, R.J., Haines, A., Hales, S., Hamilton, I., Hasegawa, T., Hashizume, M., Honda, Y., Horton, D.E., Karambelas, A., Kim, H., Kim, S.E., Kinney, P.L., Kone, I., Knowlton, K., Lelieveld, J., Limaye, V.S., Liu, Q., Madaniyazi, L., Martinez, M.E., Mauzerall, D.L., Milner, J., Neville, T., Nieuwenhuijsen, M., Pachauri, S., Perera, F., Pineo, H., Remais, J.V., Saari, R.K., Sampedro, J., Scheelbeek, P., Schwartz, J., Shindell, D., Shyamsundar, P., Taylor, T.J., Tonne, C., Van Vuuren, D., Wang, C., Watts, N., West, J.J., Wilkinson, P., Wood, S.A., Woodcock, J., Woodward, A., Xie, Y., Zhang, Y., and Ebi, K.L.

Abstract

Background: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers. Objective: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions. Methods: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies. Results: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting. Discussion: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can info

Published
2020

9. Integrated Climate-Change Assessment Scenarios and Carbon Dioxide Removal

Author

Schweizer, V.J., Ebi, K.L., van Vuuren, D.P., Jacoby, H.D., Riahi, K., Strefler, J., Takahashi, K., van Ruijven, B., Weyant, J.P., Schweizer, V.J., Ebi, K.L., van Vuuren, D.P., Jacoby, H.D., Riahi, K., Strefler, J., Takahashi, K., van Ruijven, B., and Weyant, J.P.

Abstract

To halt climate change this century, we must reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities to net zero. Any emission sources, such as in the energy or land-use sectors, must be balanced by natural or technological carbon sinks that facilitate CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. Projections of demand for large-scale CDR are based on an integrated scenario framework for emission scenarios composed of emission profiles as well as alternative socio-economic development trends and social values consistent with them. The framework, however, was developed years before systematic reviews of CDR entered the literature. This primer provides an overview of the purposes of scenarios in climate-change research and how they are used. It also introduces the integrated scenario framework and why it came about. CDR studies using the scenario framework, as well as its limitations, are discussed. Possible future developments for the scenario framework are highlighted, especially in relation to CDR.

Published
2020

13. Aligning evidence generation and use across health, development, and environment

Author

Tallis, H., Kreis, K., Olander, L., Ringler, C., Ameyaw, D., Borsuk, M.E., Fletschner, D., Game, E., Gilligan, D.O., Jeuland, M., Kennedy, G., Masuda, Y.J., Mehta, S., Miller, N., Parker, M., Pollino, C., Rajaratnam, J., Wilkie, D., Zhang, W., Ahmed, S., Ajayi, O.C., Alderman, H., Arhonditsis, G., Azevedo, I., Badola, R., Bailis, R., Balvanera, P., Barbour, E., Bardini, M., Barton, D.N., Baumgartner, J., Benton, T.G., Bobrow, E., Bossio, D., Bostrom, A., Braimoh, A., Brondizio, E., Brown, J., Bryant, B.P., Calder, R.S.D., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Cullen, A., DeMello, N., Dickinson, K.L., Ebi, K.L., Eves, H.E., Fanzo, J., Ferraro, P.J., Fisher, B., Frongillo, E.A., Galford, G., Garrity, D., Gatere, L., Grieshop, A.P., Grigg, N.J., Groves, C., Gugerty, M.K., Hamm, M., Hou, X., Huang, S., Imhoff, M., Jack, D., Jones, A.D., Kelsey, R., Kothari, M., Kumar, R., Lachat, C., Larsen, A., Lawrence, M., DeClerck, F., Levin, P.S., Mabaya, E., MacDonald Gibson, J., McDonald, R.I., Mace, G., Maertens, R., Mangale, D.I., Martino, R., Mason, S., Mehta, L., Meinzen-Dick, R., Merz, B., Msangi, S., Murray, G., Murray, K.A., Naude, C.E., Newlands, N.K., Nkonya, E., Peterman, A., Petruney, T., Possingham, H., Puri, J., Remans, R., Remlinger, L., Ricketts, T.H., Reta, B., Robinson, B.E., Roe, D., Rosenthal, J., Shen, G., Tallis, H., Kreis, K., Olander, L., Ringler, C., Ameyaw, D., Borsuk, M.E., Fletschner, D., Game, E., Gilligan, D.O., Jeuland, M., Kennedy, G., Masuda, Y.J., Mehta, S., Miller, N., Parker, M., Pollino, C., Rajaratnam, J., Wilkie, D., Zhang, W., Ahmed, S., Ajayi, O.C., Alderman, H., Arhonditsis, G., Azevedo, I., Badola, R., Bailis, R., Balvanera, P., Barbour, E., Bardini, M., Barton, D.N., Baumgartner, J., Benton, T.G., Bobrow, E., Bossio, D., Bostrom, A., Braimoh, A., Brondizio, E., Brown, J., Bryant, B.P., Calder, R.S.D., Chaplin-Kramer, B., Cullen, A., DeMello, N., Dickinson, K.L., Ebi, K.L., Eves, H.E., Fanzo, J., Ferraro, P.J., Fisher, B., Frongillo, E.A., Galford, G., Garrity, D., Gatere, L., Grieshop, A.P., Grigg, N.J., Groves, C., Gugerty, M.K., Hamm, M., Hou, X., Huang, S., Imhoff, M., Jack, D., Jones, A.D., Kelsey, R., Kothari, M., Kumar, R., Lachat, C., Larsen, A., Lawrence, M., DeClerck, F., Levin, P.S., Mabaya, E., MacDonald Gibson, J., McDonald, R.I., Mace, G., Maertens, R., Mangale, D.I., Martino, R., Mason, S., Mehta, L., Meinzen-Dick, R., Merz, B., Msangi, S., Murray, G., Murray, K.A., Naude, C.E., Newlands, N.K., Nkonya, E., Peterman, A., Petruney, T., Possingham, H., Puri, J., Remans, R., Remlinger, L., Ricketts, T.H., Reta, B., Robinson, B.E., Roe, D., Rosenthal, J., and Shen, G.

Abstract

Although health, development, and environment challenges are interconnected, evidence remains fractured across sectors due to methodological and conceptual differences in research and practice. Aligned methods are needed to support Sustainable Development Goal advances and similar agendas. The Bridge Collaborative, an emergent research-practice collaboration, presents principles and recommendations that help harmonize methods for evidence generation and use. Recommendations were generated in the context of designing and evaluating evidence of impact for interventions related to five global challenges (stabilizing the global climate, making food production sustainable, decreasing air pollution and respiratory disease, improving sanitation and water security, and solving hunger and malnutrition) and serve as a starting point for further iteration and testing in a broader set of contexts and disciplines. We adopted six principles and emphasize three methodological recommendations: (1) creation of compatible results chains, (2) consideration of all relevant types of evidence, and (3) evaluation of strength of evidence using a unified rubric. We provide detailed suggestions for how these recommendations can be applied in practice, streamlining efforts to apply multi-objective approaches and/or synthesize evidence in multidisciplinary or transdisciplinary teams. These recommendations advance the necessary process of reconciling existing evidence standards in health, development, and environment, and initiate a common basis for integrated evidence generation and use in research, practice, and policy design.

Published
2019

14. Technical Summary: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

Author

Allen, M., Antwi-Agyei, P., Aragon-Durand, F., Babiker, M., Bertoldi, P., Bind, M., Brown, S., Buckeridge, M., Camilloni, I., Cartwright, A., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Dong, W., Ebi, K.L., Engelbrecht, F., Fifita, S., Ford, J., Fuß, S., Hayward, B., Hourcade, J.-C., Ginzburg, V., Guiot, J., Handa, C., Hijioka, Y., Humphreys, S., Kainuma, M., Kala, J., Kanninen, M., Kheshgi, H., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Ley, D., Liverman, D., Mahowald, N., Mechler, R., Mehrotra, S., Mulugetta, Y., Mundaca, L., Newman, P., Okereke, C., Payne, A., Perez, R., Pinho, P.F., Revokatova, A., Riahi, K., Schultz, S., Seferian, R., Seneviratne, S., Steg, L., Rogriguez, A.G., Sugiyama, T., Thonas, A., Vilarino, M.V., Wairiu, M., Warren, R., Zhou, G., Zickfeld, K., Allen, M., Antwi-Agyei, P., Aragon-Durand, F., Babiker, M., Bertoldi, P., Bind, M., Brown, S., Buckeridge, M., Camilloni, I., Cartwright, A., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Dong, W., Ebi, K.L., Engelbrecht, F., Fifita, S., Ford, J., Fuß, S., Hayward, B., Hourcade, J.-C., Ginzburg, V., Guiot, J., Handa, C., Hijioka, Y., Humphreys, S., Kainuma, M., Kala, J., Kanninen, M., Kheshgi, H., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Ley, D., Liverman, D., Mahowald, N., Mechler, R., Mehrotra, S., Mulugetta, Y., Mundaca, L., Newman, P., Okereke, C., Payne, A., Perez, R., Pinho, P.F., Revokatova, A., Riahi, K., Schultz, S., Seferian, R., Seneviratne, S., Steg, L., Rogriguez, A.G., Sugiyama, T., Thonas, A., Vilarino, M.V., Wairiu, M., Warren, R., Zhou, G., and Zickfeld, K.

Published
2019

15. Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios

Author

Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Guo, Y., Sera, F., Huber, V., Schleussner, C. F., Mitchell, D., Tong, S., Coelho, M.d.S.Z.S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, Eric, Matus Correa, Patricia, Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Jaakkola, Jouni, Ryti, N.R.I., Pascal, M., Goodman, P. G., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., Scortichini, M., Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Y., Hurtado-Díaz, Magali, Cruz, J., Seposo, Xerxes, Kim, Hyunbin, Tobías, Aurelio, Íñiguez, C., Forsberg, B., Åström, D.O., Ragettli, Martina S., Röösli, M., Guo, Y. L., Wu, C. F., Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, J., Bell, M.L., Dang, T.N., Do Van, D., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, Sotiris, Hajat, S., Haines, A., Armstrong, B., Ebi, K.L., Gasparrini, A., Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, Guo, Y., Sera, F., Huber, V., Schleussner, C. F., Mitchell, D., Tong, S., Coelho, M.d.S.Z.S., Saldiva, P. H. N., Lavigne, Eric, Matus Correa, Patricia, Ortega, N. V., Kan, H., Osorio, S., Kyselý, J., Urban, A., Jaakkola, Jouni, Ryti, N.R.I., Pascal, M., Goodman, P. G., Zeka, A., Michelozzi, P., Scortichini, M., Hashizume, Masahiro, Honda, Y., Hurtado-Díaz, Magali, Cruz, J., Seposo, Xerxes, Kim, Hyunbin, Tobías, Aurelio, Íñiguez, C., Forsberg, B., Åström, D.O., Ragettli, Martina S., Röösli, M., Guo, Y. L., Wu, C. F., Zanobetti, Antonella, Schwartz, J., Bell, M.L., Dang, T.N., Do Van, D., Heaviside, C., Vardoulakis, Sotiris, Hajat, S., Haines, A., Armstrong, B., Ebi, K.L., and Gasparrini, A.

Abstract

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to “hold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C”. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and cold-related mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

Published
2018

16. Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots

Author

Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclere, D., Burek, P., Ebi, K.L., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., Johnson, N., Kahil, T., Krey, V., Langan, S., Nakicenovic, N., Novak, R., Obersteiner, M., Pachauri, S., Palazzo, A., Parkinson, S., Rao, N., Rogelj, J., Riahi, K., Satoh, Y., Wada, Y., Willaarts, B., Byers, E., Gidden, M., Leclere, D., Burek, P., Ebi, K.L., Greve, P., Grey, D., Havlik, P., Hillers, A., Johnson, N., Kahil, T., Krey, V., Langan, S., Nakicenovic, N., Novak, R., Obersteiner, M., Pachauri, S., Palazzo, A., Parkinson, S., Rao, N., Rogelj, J., Riahi, K., Satoh, Y., Wada, Y., and Willaarts, B.

Abstract

Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature(GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact models. The analysis includes changes in drought intensity and water stress index, cooling demand change and heat event exposure, habitat degradation and crop yield, amongst others. To investigate exposure to multi-sector climate impacts, these are combined with gridded socioeconomic projections of population and those "vulnerable to poverty" from three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)(income <$10/day, currently 4.2 billion people). We show that global exposure to multi-sector risks s approximately doubles between 1.5°C and 2.0°C GMT change, doubles again with 3.0°C GMT change and is ~6x between the best and worst cases(SSP1/1.5°C vs SSP3/3.0°C, 0.8-4.7bi). For populations vulnerable to poverty, the exposure is an order of magnitude greater (8-32x) in the high poverty and inequality scenarios (SSP3) compared to sustainable socioeconomic development(SSP1). Whilst 85-95% of global exposure falls to Asian and African regions, they have 91-98% of the exposed and vulnerable population (depending on SSP/GMT combination), approximately half of which in South Asia. In higher warming scenarios, African regions have growing proportion of the global exposed and vulnerable population, ranging from 7-17% at 1.5°C, doubling to 14-30% at 2°C and again to 27-51% at 3°C. Finally, beyond 2.0°C and at higher risk thresholds, the world's poorest are disproportionately impacted, particularly in cases(SSP3) of high inequality in Africa and southern Asia. Sustainable development that reduces poverty, mitigates emissions and meets targets in the

Published
2018

17. The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Author

Seneviratne, S.I., Rogelj, J., Séférian, R., Wartenburger, R., Allen, M.R., Cain, M., Millar, R.J., Ebi, K.L., Ellis, N., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Payne, A.J., Schleussner, C.-F., Tschakert, P., Warren, R.F., Seneviratne, S.I., Rogelj, J., Séférian, R., Wartenburger, R., Allen, M.R., Cain, M., Millar, R.J., Ebi, K.L., Ellis, N., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Payne, A.J., Schleussner, C.-F., Tschakert, P., and Warren, R.F.

Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time.Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales,owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

Published
2018

18. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century

Author

O'Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K.L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D.S., van Ruijven, B.J., van Vuuren, D.P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., Solecki, W., O'Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K.L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D.S., van Ruijven, B.J., van Vuuren, D.P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., Levy, M., and Solecki, W.

Abstract

Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options or mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pthways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to 1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses.

Published
2017

19. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

Author

O'Neill, B.C., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., Ebi, K.L., Hallegatte, S., Carter, T.R., Mathur, R., van Vuuren, D.P., and Environmental Sciences

Abstract

The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.

Published
2014

20. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

Author

van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B.C., Ebi, K.L., Riahi, K., Carter, T.R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., Winkler, H., Environmental Sciences, centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Environmental Sciences, Energy Research Centre, and Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment

Subjects
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Heuristic, Management science, Climate change, Representative Concentration Pathways, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Matrix (mathematics), Risk analysis (engineering), 13. Climate action, Carbon taxes, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, ddc:550, Key (cryptography), Architecture, Set (psychology), Adaptation (computer science), Greenhouse gas mitigation, Energy policy, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

Published
2014

21. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

Author

Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Ebi, K.L., Kram, T., Riahi, K., Winkler, J., van Vuuren, Detlef, Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Ebi, K.L., Kram, T., Riahi, K., Winkler, J., and van Vuuren, Detlef

Abstract

The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a major role in linking socioeconomic futures with forcing and climate outcomes. The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key policy attributes such as the goals, instruments and obstacles of mitigation and adaptation measures, and introduce an important additional dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. They can be used to improve the comparability of scenarios in the scenario matrix. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

Published
2014

22. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

Author

Environmental Sciences, van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B.C., Ebi, K.L., Riahi, K., Carter, T.R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., Winkler, H., Environmental Sciences, van Vuuren, D.P., Kriegler, E., O'Neill, B.C., Ebi, K.L., Riahi, K., Carter, T.R., Edmonds, J., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Mathur, R., and Winkler, H.

Published
2014

25. Cross-chapter box on net primary production in the ocean

Author

Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Boyd, P. W., Sundby, S., Pörtner, H. O., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Boyd, P. W., Sundby, S., and Pörtner, H. O.

Published
2014

26. Cross-chapter box on ocean acidification

Author

Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Gattuso, J. P., Brewer, P. G., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kleypas, J. A., Pörtner, H. O., Schmidt, D. N., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Gattuso, J. P., Brewer, P. G., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Kleypas, J. A., Pörtner, H. O., and Schmidt, D. N.

Published
2014

27. Cross-chapter box on coral reefs

Author

Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Gattuso, J. P., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Pörtner, H. O., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Gattuso, J. P., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Pörtner, H. O.

Published
2014

28. IPCC 2014 : Summary for policymakers

Author

Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Abdrabo, M.A.K., Adger, W.N., Anokhin, Y.A., Anisimov, O.A., Arent, D.J., Barnett, J., Burkett, V.R., Cai, R., Cohen, S.J., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Davidson, D.J., Denton, F., Döll, P., Dow, K., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R.G., Jones, R.N., Kitching, R.L., Kovats, R.S., Lankao, P.R., Larsen, J.N., Lin, J.N., Lin, E., Lobell, D.B., Losada, I.J., Magrin, G.O., Marengo, J.A., Markandya, A., McCarl, B.A., McLean, R.F., Mearns, L.O., Midgley, G.F., Mimura, N., Morton, J.F., Niang, I., Noble, I.R., Nurse, L.A., O’Brien, K.L., Oki, T., Olsson, L., Oppenheimer, M., Overpeck, J.T., Pereira, J.J., Poloczanska, E.S., Porter, J.R., Pörtner, H.-O., Prather, M.J., Pulwarty, R.S., Reisinger, A.R., Revi, A., Ruppel, O.C., Satterthwaite, D.E., Schmidt, D.N., Settele, Josef, Smith, K.R., Stone, D.A., Suarez, A.G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Villamizar, A., Warren, R., Wilbanks, T.J., Wong, P.P., Woodward, A., Yohe, G.W., Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Abdrabo, M.A.K., Adger, W.N., Anokhin, Y.A., Anisimov, O.A., Arent, D.J., Barnett, J., Burkett, V.R., Cai, R., Cohen, S.J., Cramer, W., Dasgupta, P., Davidson, D.J., Denton, F., Döll, P., Dow, K., Hijioka, Y., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jones, R.G., Jones, R.N., Kitching, R.L., Kovats, R.S., Lankao, P.R., Larsen, J.N., Lin, J.N., Lin, E., Lobell, D.B., Losada, I.J., Magrin, G.O., Marengo, J.A., Markandya, A., McCarl, B.A., McLean, R.F., Mearns, L.O., Midgley, G.F., Mimura, N., Morton, J.F., Niang, I., Noble, I.R., Nurse, L.A., O’Brien, K.L., Oki, T., Olsson, L., Oppenheimer, M., Overpeck, J.T., Pereira, J.J., Poloczanska, E.S., Porter, J.R., Pörtner, H.-O., Prather, M.J., Pulwarty, R.S., Reisinger, A.R., Revi, A., Ruppel, O.C., Satterthwaite, D.E., Schmidt, D.N., Settele, Josef, Smith, K.R., Stone, D.A., Suarez, A.G., Tschakert, P., Valentini, R., Villamizar, A., Warren, R., Wilbanks, T.J., Wong, P.P., Woodward, A., and Yohe, G.W.

Published
2014

29. Terrestrial and inland water systems

Author

Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Settele, Josef, Scholes, R., Betts, R., Bunn, S., Leadley, P., Nepstad, D., Overpeck, J.T., Taboada, M.A., Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L., Settele, Josef, Scholes, R., Betts, R., Bunn, S., Leadley, P., Nepstad, D., Overpeck, J.T., and Taboada, M.A.

Published
2014

30. Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research.

Author

Ruijven, B.J., Levy, M., Agrawal, A., Biermann, F., Birkmann, J., Carter, T.R., Ebi, K.L., Garschagen, M., Jones, B., Jones, R., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kok, M., Kok, K., Lemos, M.C., Lucas, P.L., Orlove, B., Pachauri, S., Parris, T., Patwardhan, A., Petersen, A., Preston, B.L., Ribot, J., Rothman, D.S., Schweizer, V.J., Ruijven, B.J., Levy, M., Agrawal, A., Biermann, F., Birkmann, J., Carter, T.R., Ebi, K.L., Garschagen, M., Jones, B., Jones, R., Kemp-Benedict, E., Kok, M., Kok, K., Lemos, M.C., Lucas, P.L., Orlove, B., Pachauri, S., Parris, T., Patwardhan, A., Petersen, A., Preston, B.L., Ribot, J., Rothman, D.S., and Schweizer, V.J.

Abstract

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

Published
2014

31. A new scenario framework for climate change research: Background, process, and future directions

Author

Ebi, K.L., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Arnell, N.W., Carter, T.R., Edmonds, J., Kriegler, E., Mathur, R., O'Neill, B.C., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., van Vuuren, D.P., Zwickel, T., Ebi, K.L., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Arnell, N.W., Carter, T.R., Edmonds, J., Kriegler, E., Mathur, R., O'Neill, B.C., Riahi, K., Winkler, H., van Vuuren, D.P., and Zwickel, T.

Abstract

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O'Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

Published
2014

33. Phenology and human health: allergic disorders

Author

Huynen, M., Menne, B., Behrendt, H., Bertollini, R., Bonini, S., Brandao, R., Brown-Fahrländer, C., Clot, B., d' Ambrosio, C., De Nuntiis, P., Ebi, K.L., Emberlin, J., Erdei Orbanne, E., Galán, C., Jäger, S., Kovats, S., Mandrioli, P., Martens, P., Menzel, A., Nyenzi, B., Rantio-Lehtimäki, A., Ring, J., Rybnicek, O., Traidl-Hoffmann, C., van Vliet, A.J.H., Voigt, T., Weiland, S., and Wickman, M.

Subjects
WIMEK, Environmental Systems Analysis, Milieusysteemanalyse, Life Science
Published
2003

34. Infectious disease, development, and climate change, A scenario analysis

Author

Tol, R.S.J., Ebi, K.L., Yohe, G.W., Tol, R.S.J., Ebi, K.L., and Yohe, G.W.

Abstract

We study the effects of development and climate change on infectious diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Infant mortality and infectious disease are closely related, but there are better data for the former. In an international cross-section, per capita income, literacy, and absolute poverty significantly affect infant mortality. We use scenarios of these three determinants and of climate change to project the future incidence of malaria, assuming it to change proportionally to infant mortality. Malaria deathswill first increase, because of population growth and climate change, but then fall, because of development. This pattern is robust to the choice of scenario, parameters, and starting conditions; and it holds for diarrhoea, schistosomiasis, and dengue fever as well. However, the timing and level of the mortality peak is very sensitive to assumptions. Climate change is important in the medium term, but dominated in the long term by development. As climate can only be changed with a substantial delay, development is the preferred strategy to reduce infectious diseases even if they are exacerbated by climate change. Development can, in particular, support the needed strengthening of disease control programs in the short run and thereby increase the capacity to cope with projected increases in infectious diseases over the medium to long term. This conclusion must, however, be viewed with caution, because development, even of the sort envisioned in the underlying socio-economic scenarios, is by no means certain. © 2007 Cambridge University Press.

Published
2007
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