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Cratons, the ancient cores of the continents, have survived thermal and mechanical erosion over multiple Wilson cycles, but the ability of their margins to withstand modification during continental convergence is debated. The Proterozoic Grenville orogeny operated for ≥ 300 Myr along the eastern edge of the proto-North American continent Laurentia, whose age varied north-to-south from ∼ 1.5 − 0.25 Gyr at the time of collision. The preserved Grenville Province, west of the Appalachian terranes, has remained largely tectonically quiescent since its formation. Thick, cool, mantle lithosphere that underlies these Proterozoic regions is typically identified by elevated seismic velocities but lithospheric modification by fluid/melt-derived metasomatic enrichment above a subduction zone, can lead to a reduction in V P with little effect on V S and density. Absolute P-wavespeed constraints are therefore a vital complement to existing S-wave tomographic models of North America to investigate craton edge modification mechanisms in the Grenville orogen. New P-wave tomographic imaging of the North American continent, which benefits from recent developments in arrival-time processing of regional network deployments from the Canadian shield, reveals along strike wavespeed variation in the Grenville orogen. In the north, high seismic wavespeeds (to depths of 250 km) extend eastwards, from the Archean core of North America to beneath the Canadian Grenville Province. In contrast, below the southern U.S., high lithospheric wavespeeds are restricted to west of the Grenville Province, in particular at depths less than 150 km. We argue that subduction-derived metasomatism beneath eastern Laurentia modified the southern Grenville, prior to thermal stabilization and perhaps mantle keel formation. Beneath the northern Grenville, the thick, depleted Laurentian lithosphere resisted extensive metasomatism. Along strike age differences in Grenvillian terranes and their resulting metasomatic modification histories suggests that at least 250 Myr is required for Proterozoic lithosphere to gain resistance to modification.

Oomycetes form a deep lineage of eukaryotic organisms that includes a large number of plant pathogens that threaten natural and managed ecosystems. We undertook a survey to query the community for their ranking of plant pathogenic oomycete species based on scientific and economic importance. In total, we received 263 votes from 62 scientists in 15 countries for a total of 33 species. The Top 10 species and their ranking are: (1) Phytophthora infestans; (2, tied) Hyaloperonospora arabidopsidis; (2, tied) Phytophthora ramorum; (4) Phytophthora sojae; (5) Phytophthora capsici; (6) Plasmopara viticola; (7) Phytophthora cinnamomi; (8, tied) Phytophthora parasitica; (8, tied) Pythium ultimum; and (10) Albugo candida. The article provides an introduction to these 10 taxa and a snapshot of current research. We hope that the list will serve as a benchmark for future trends in oomycete research.

A Monte Carlo approach to probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis is developed for a case of induced seismicity associated with a compacting gas reservoir. The geomechanical foundation for the method is the work of Kostrov (1974) and McGarr (1976) linking total strain to summed seismic moment in an earthquake catalog. Our Monte Carlo method simulates future seismic hazard consistent with historical seismic and compaction datasets by sampling probability distributions for total seismic moment, event locations and magnitudes, and resulting ground motions. Ground motions are aggregated over an ensemble of simulated catalogs to give a probabilistic representation of the ground‐motion hazard. This approach is particularly well suited to the specific nature of the time‐dependent induced seismicity considered. We demonstrate the method by applying it to seismicity induced by reservoir compaction following gas production from the Groningen gas field. A new ground‐motion prediction equation (GMPE) tailored to the Groningen field has been derived by calibrating an existing GMPE with local strong‐motion data. For 2013–2023, we find a 2% chance of exceeding a peak ground acceleration of 0.57 g and a 2% chance of exceeding a peak ground velocity of 22 cm/s above the area of maximum compaction. Disaggregation shows that earthquakes of M w 4–5, at the shortest hypocentral distances of 3 km, and ground motions two standard deviations above the median make the largest contributions to this hazard. Uncertainty in the hazard is primarily due to uncertainty about the future fraction of induced strains that will be seismogenic and how ground motion and its variability will scale to larger magnitudes.

International audience; Oomycetes form a deep lineage of eukaryotic organisms that includes a large number of plant pathogens which threaten natural and managed ecosystems. We undertook a survey to query the community for their ranking of plant‐pathogenic oomycete species based on scientific and economic importance. In total, we received 263 votes from 62 scientists in 15 countries for a total of 33 species. The Top 10 species and their ranking are: (1) Phytophthora infestans; (2, tied) Hyaloperonospora arabidopsidis; (2, tied) Phytophthora ramorum; (4) Phytophthora sojae; (5) Phytophthora capsici; (6) Plasmopara viticola; (7) Phytophthora cinnamomi; (8, tied) Phytophthora parasitica; (8, tied) Pythium ultimum; and (10) Albugo candida. This article provides an introduction to these 10 taxa and a snapshot of current research. We hope that the list will serve as a benchmark for future trends in oomycete research.

Background: We examine the environmental, climatic and geographical controls on tropical ostracod distribution in the marine Ordovician of North America.Methodology/Principal Findings: Analysis of the inter-regional distribution patterns of Ordovician Laurentian ostracods, focussing particularly on the diverse Late Ordovician Sandbian (ca 461 to 456 Ma) faunas, demonstrates strong endemicity at the species-level. Local endemism is very pronounced, ranging from 25% (e. g. Foxe basin) to 75% (e. g. Michigan basin) in each basin, a pattern that is also reflected in other benthic faunas such as brachiopods. Multivariate (ordination) analyses of the ostracod faunas allow demarcation of a Midcontinent Province and a southern Marginal Province in Laurentia. While these are most clearly differentiated at the stratigraphical level of the bicornis graptolite biozone, analyses of the entire dataset suggest that these provinces remain distinct throughout the Sandbian interval. Differences in species composition between the provinces appear to have been controlled by changes in physical parameters (e. g. temperature and salinity) related to water depth and latitude and a possible regional geographic barrier, and these differences persist into the Katian and possibly the Hirnantian. Local environmental parameters, perhaps operating at the microhabitat scale, may have been significant in driving local speciation events from ancestor species in each region.Conclusions/Significance: Our work establishes a refined methodology for assessing marine benthic arthropod micro-benthos provinciality for the Early Palaeozoic.

Understanding the surface O-3 response over a "receptor" region to emission changes over a foreign "source" region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O-3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O-3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O-3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O-3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by > 10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O-3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale "import sensitivity" as the ratio of the O-3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus "domestic" (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O-3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O-3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O-3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-h average O-3 above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region(< 10-20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O-3 of about 0.1 ppb a(-1), at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb a(-1) derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O-3 response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NOx, NMVOC, and CO emissions from the foreign source

The potential impact of climate change on Dracaena cinnabari , a spectacular relict of the Mio-Pliocene Laurasian subtropical forest in Socotra (Yemen), was analysed. Current distribution, abundance and vertical structure of D. cinnabari populations were assessed with 74 plots in nine remnant areas. A deterministic regression tree analysis model was used to examine environmental variables related to the current species distribution. Using this model, a current potential map and a predicted potential map for the ∼2080 climatic scenario were generated. D. cinnabari has an altitudinal range from 323 to 1483 m a.s.l., with a mean annual temperature of 19.8–28.6 °C and an annual precipitation of 207–569 mm. The current distribution and abundance of D. cinnabari is correlated to three factors: moisture index (i.e. the ratio between the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), mean annual temperature and slope. According to this model, D. cinnabari occupies only 5% of its current potential habitat. This potential habitat is expected to be reduced with 45% by 2080 because of a predicted increased aridity. Only two out of the nine remnant areas should be considered as potential refugia. The boundaries of the strictly protected Skund Nature Sanctuary, where no (road) infrastructure is allowed, should be extended to include both areas. The construction of new roads leading towards these areas, thereby increasing permanent settlements and grazing pressure, should also be discouraged.

International audience; We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Potential impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity are often assessed using single-species bioclimatic ‘envelope’models. Such models are a special case of species distribution models in which the current geographical distribution of species is related to climatic variables so to enable projections of distributions under future climate change scenarios. This work reviews a number of critical methodological issues that may lead to uncertainty in predictions from bioclimatic modelling. Particular attention is paid to recent developments of bioclimatic modelling that address some of these issues as well as to the topics where more progress needs to be made. Developing and applying bioclimatic models in a informative way requires good understanding of a wide range of methodologies, including the choice of modelling technique, model validation, collinearity, autocorrelation, biased sampling of explanatory variables, scaling and impacts of non-climatic factors. A key challenge for future research is integrating factors such as land cover, direct CO2 effects, biotic interactions and dispersal mechanisms into species-climate models. We conclude that, although bioclimatic envelope models have a number of important advantages, they need to be applied only when users of models have a thorough understanding of their limitations and uncertainties.

Satellite-based retrievals of tropospheric NO(2)columns are widely used to infer NOx (equivalent to NO + NO2) emissions. These retrievals rely on model information for the vertical distribution of NO2. The free tropospheric background above 2 km is particularly important because the sensitivity of the retrievals increases with altitude. Free tropospheric NOx also has a strong effect on tropospheric OH and ozone concentrations. Here we use observations from three aircraft campaigns (SEAC(4)RS, DC3, and ATom) and four atmospheric chemistry models (GEOS-Chem, GMI, TM5, and CAMS) to evaluate the model capabilities for simulating NOx in the free troposphere and attribute it to sources. NO2 measurements during the Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) and Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) campaigns over the southeastern U.S. in summer show increasing concentrations in the upper troposphere above 10 km, which are not replicated by the GEOS-Chem, although the model is consistent with the NO measurements. Using concurrent NO, NO2, and ozone observations from a DC3 flight in a thunderstorm outflow, we show that the NO2 measurements in the upper troposphere are biased high, plausibly due to interference from thermally labile NO(2)reservoirs such as peroxynitric acid (HNO4) and methyl peroxy nitrate (MPN). We find that NO2 concentrations calculated from the NO measurements and NO-NO2 photochemical steady state (PSS) are more reliable to evaluate the vertical profiles of NO2 in models. GEOS-Chem reproduces the shape of the PSS-inferred NO2 profiles throughout the troposphere for SEAC(4)RS and DC3 but overestimates NO2 concentrations by about a factor of 2. The model underestimates MPN and alkyl nitrate concentrations, suggesting missing organic NOx chemistry. On the other hand, the standard GEOS-Chem model underestimates NO observations from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) campaigns over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, indicating a missing NOx source over the oceans. We find that we can account for this missing source by including in the model the photolysis of particulate nitrate on sea salt aerosols at rates inferred from laboratory studies and field observations of nitrous acid (HONO) over the Atlantic. The median PSS-inferred tropospheric NO2 column density for the ATom campaign is 1.7 +/- 0.44 x 10(14) molec. cm(-2), and the NO2 column density simulated by the four models is in the range of 1.4-2.4 x 10(14) molec. cm(-2), implying that the uncertainty from using modeled NO2 tropospheric columns over clean areas in the retrievals for stratosphere-troposphere separation is about 1 x 10(14 )molec. cm(-2). We find from GEOS-Chem that lightning is the main primary NOx source in the free troposphere over the tropics and southern midlatitudes, but aircraft emissions dominate at northern midlatitudes in winter and in summer over the oceans. Particulate nitrate photolysis increases ozone concentrations by up to 5 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) in the free troposphere in the northern extratropics in the model, which would largely correct the low model bias relative to ozonesonde observations. Global tropospheric OH concentrations increase by 19 %., The contribution of the free tropospheric background to the tropospheric NO2 columns observed by satellites over the contiguous U.S. increases from 25 +/- 11 % in winter to 65 +/- 9 % in summer, according to the GEOS-Chem vertical profiles. This needs to be accounted for when deriving NOx emissions from satellite NO2 column measurements.