Search

Stable isotope analysis of bone provides insight into animal foraging and allows for ecological reconstructions over time, however pre-treatment is required to isolate collagen. Pre-treatments typically consist of demineralization to remove inorganic components and/or lipid extraction to remove fats, but these protocols can differentially affect stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope values depending on the chemicals, tissues, and/or species involved. Species-specific methodologies create a standard for comparability across studies and enhance understanding of collagen isolation from modern cetacean bone. Elemental analyzers coupled to isotope ratio mass spectrometers were used to measure the δ13C and δ15N values of powdered killer whale (Orcinus orca) bone that was intact (control) or subjected to one of three experimental conditions: demineralized, lipid-extracted, and both demineralized and lipid-extracted. Additionally, C:N ratios were evaluated as a proxy for collagen purity. Lastly, correlations were examined between control C:N ratios vs. historical age and control C:N ratios vs. sample characteristics. No significant differences in the δ15N values were observed for any of the experimental protocols. However, the δ13C values were significantly increased by all three experimental protocols: demineralization, lipid extraction, and both treatments combined. The most influential protocol was both demineralization and lipid extraction. Measures of the C:N ratios were also significantly lowered by demineralization and both treatments combined, indicating the material was closer to pure collagen after the treatments. Collagen purity as indicated via C:N ratio was not correlated with historical age nor sample characteristics. If only the δ15N values from killer whale bone are of interest for analysis, no pre-treatment seems necessary. If the δ13C values are of interest, samples should be both demineralized and lipid-extracted. As historical age and specimen characteristics are not correlated with sample contamination, all samples can be treated equally.

Observation of glacier surface characteristics through remotely sensed time-series data is essential for understanding glacier seasonality, mass balance, and long-term trends. Yet, the reliability of these observations depends significantly on the quality of the time-series data. This study presents a meticulous preprocessing scheme to improve the quality of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) time-series data for glacier monitoring. We propose a three-step algorithm specifically crafted to overcome the challenges associated with cloud contamination reduction, outlier removal and data gap handling. This innovative approach iteratively compares the median values of automatically adjusted asymmetrical moving windows to achieve convergence, removing outliers using minimal window size to keep the temporal resolution as high as possible. The methodology’s effectiveness is demonstrated through its application to two glaciers from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Benchmark Project, showcasing significant improvements in the quality of smoothed MODIS NDSI time series. These results affirm the efficacy of the proposed scheme in rendering a more reliable evaluation of glacier surface condition and seasonal fluctuations. Consequently, this study contributes significant methodological advancements to the fields of remote sensing and glaciology, enhancing the accuracy of glacier monitoring techniques.

We present a 3D numerical modelling analysis evaluating the deployment of a borehole electromagnetic measurement tool to detect and image a stimulated zone at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy geothermal site. As the depth to the geothermal reservoir is several kilometres and the size of the stimulated zone is limited to several 100 m, surface-based controlled-source electromagnetic measurements lack the sensitivity for detecting changes in electrical resistivity caused by the stimulation. To overcome the limitation, the study evaluates the feasibility of using a three-component borehole magnetic receiver system at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. To provide sufficient currents inside and around the enhanced geothermal reservoir, we use an injection well as an energized casing source. To efficiently simulate energizing the injection well in a realistic 3D resistivity model, we introduce a novel modelling workflow that leverages the strengths of both 3D cylindrical-mesh-based electromagnetic modelling code and 3D tetrahedral-mesh-based electromagnetic modelling code. The former is particularly well-suited for modelling hollow cylindrical objects like casings, whereas the latter excels at representing more complex 3D geological structures. In this workflow, our initial step involves computing current densities along a vertical steel-cased well using a 3D cylindrical electromagnetic modelling code. Subsequently, we distribute a series of equivalent current sources along the well's trajectory within a complex 3D resistivity model. We then discretize this model using a tetrahedral mesh and simulate the borehole electromagnetic responses excited by the casing source using a 3D finite-element electromagnetic code. This multi-step approach enables us to simulate 3D casing source electromagnetic responses within a complex 3D resistivity model, without the need for explicit discretization of the well using an excessive number of fine cells. We discuss the applicability and limitations of this proposed workflow within an electromagnetic modelling scenario where an energized well is deviated, such as at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. Using the workflow, we demonstrate that the combined use of the energized casing source and the borehole electromagnetic receiver system offer measurable magnetic field amplitudes and sensitivity to the deep localized stimulated zone. The measurements can also distinguish between parallel-fracture anisotropic reservoirs and isotropic cases, providing valuable insights into the fracture system of the stimulated zone. Besides the magnetic field measurements, vertical electric field measurements in the open well sections are also highly sensitive to the stimulated zone and can be used as additional data for detecting and imaging the target. We can also acquire additional multiple-source data by grounding the surface electrode at various locations and repeating borehole electromagnetic measurements. This approach can increase the number of monitoring data by several factors, providing a more comprehensive dataset for analysing the deep-localized stimulated zone. The numerical analysis indicates that it is feasible to use the combination of the energized casing and downhole electromagnetic measurements in monitoring localized stimulated zone at large depths.

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40-year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6-hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture-related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short-term intensity variability.

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

Abstract: The Tonga‐Kermadec subduction zone exhibits the fastest observed trench retreat and convergence near its northern end. However, a paradox exists: despite the rapid trench retreat, the Tonga slab maintains a relatively steep dip angle above 400 km depth. The slab turns flat around 400 km, then steepening again until encountering a stagnant segment near 670 km. Despite its significance for understanding slab dynamics, no existing numerical model has successfully demonstrated how such a distinct slab morphology can be generated under the fast convergence. Here we run subduction models that successfully reproduce the slab geometries while incorporating the observed subduction rate. We use a hybrid velocity boundary condition, imposing velocities on the arc and subducting plate while allowing the overriding plate to respond freely. This approach is crucial for achieving a good match between the modeled and observed Tonga slab. The results explain how the detailed slab structure is highly sensitive to physical parameters including the seafloor age and the mantle viscosity. Notably, a nonlinear rheology, where dislocation creep reduces upper mantle viscosity under strong mantle flow, is essential. The weakened upper mantle allows for a faster slab sinking rate, which explains the large dip angle. Our findings highlight the utilizing rheological parameters that lead to extreme viscosity variations within numerical models to achieve an accurate representation of complex subduction systems like the Tonga‐Kermadec zone. Our study opens new avenues for further study of ocean‐ocean subduction systems, advancing our understanding of their role in shaping regional and global tectonics.

Abstract: A Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) is used to better understand the sensitivity of aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks to changes in model processes. Aerosol forcing through aerosol‐cloud interactions is mostly negative (a cooling) due to shortwave radiation, while feedbacks are positive or negative in different regions due to contrasting longwave and shortwave effects. Both forcing and feedbacks are related to the mean climate state. Higher magnitude cloud radiative effects generally mean larger magnitude net negative forcing and larger magnitude net positive feedback. Aerosol forcing is broadly related to the susceptibility of clouds to drop number. Feedbacks also related to susceptibility, but to a lesser extent and in different regions to aerosol forcing. Aerosol forcing and cloud feedbacks are anti‐correlated in the CAM6 PPE such that stronger negative forcing is associated with stronger positive feedbacks. Even the processes governing forcing and feedback sensitivity in the PPE are similar. These include the warm rain formation process, ice loss processes and deep convective intensity.

Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite observations have provided the longest global daily records from 1980s, but the remaining temporal inconsistency in vegetation index datasets has hindered reliable assessment of vegetation greenness trends. To tackle this, we generated novel global long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Near-Infrared Reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) datasets derived from AVHRR and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We addressed residual temporal inconsistency through three-step post processing including cross-sensor calibration among AVHRR sensors, orbital drifting correction for AVHRR sensors, and machine learning-based harmonization between AVHRR and MODIS. After applying each processing step, we confirmed the enhanced temporal consistency in terms of detrended anomaly, trend and interannual variability of NDVI and NIRv at calibration sites. Our refined NDVI and NIRv datasets showed a persistent global greening trend over the last four decades (NDVI: 0.0008 yr−1; NIRv: 0.0003 yr−1), contrasting with those without the three processing steps that showed rapid greening trends before 2000 (NDVI: 0.0017 yr−1; NIRv: 0.0008 yr−1) and weakened greening trends after 2000 (NDVI: 0.0004 yr−1; NIRv: 0.0001 yr−1). These findings highlight the importance of minimizing temporal inconsistency in long-term vegetation index datasets, which can support more reliable trend analysis in global vegetation response to climate changes.

Abstract: The local scale of rotating convection, ℓ, is a fundamental parameter in many turbulent geophysical and astrophysical fluid systems, yet it is often poorly constrained. Here we conduct rotating convection laboratory experiments analogous to convecting flows in planetary cores and subsurface oceans to obtain measurements of the local scales of motion. Utilizing silicone oil as the working fluid, we employ shadowgraph imagery to visualize the flow, from which we extract values of the characteristic cross‐axial scale of convective columns and plumes. These measurements are compared to the theoretical values of the critical onset length scale, ℓcrit, and the turbulent length scale, ℓturb. Our experimentally obtained length scale measurements simultaneously agree with both the onset and turbulent scale predictions across three orders of magnitude in convective supercriticality , a correlation that is consistent with inferences made in prior studies. We further explore the nature of this correlation and its implications for geophysical and astrophysical systems.

In this work, we compare the rate of warming of summertime extreme temperatures (summer maximum value of daily maximum temperature; TXx) relative to the local mean (summer mean daily maximum temperature; TXm) over the Northern Hemisphere in observations and one set of large ensemble (LE) simulations. During the 1979–2021 historical period, observations and simulations show robust warming trends in both TXm and TXx almost everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere, except over the eastern U.S. where observations show a slight cooling trend in TXx, which may be a manifestation of internal variability. We find that the observed warming rate in TXx is significantly smaller than in TXm in North Africa, western North America, Siberia, and Eastern Asia, whereas the warming rate in TXx is significantly larger over the Eastern U.S., the U.K., and Northwestern Europe. This observed geographical pattern is successfully reproduced by the vast majority of the LE members over the historical period, and is persistent (although less intense) in future climate projections over the 2051–2100 period. We also find that these relative warming patterns are mostly driven by the local hydroclimate conditions. TXx warms slower than TXm in the hyper-arid, arid, semi-arid and moist regions, where trends in the partitioning of the turbulent surface fluxes between the latent and sensible heat flux are similar during regular and extreme hot days. In contrast, TXx warms faster than TXm in dry-subhumid regions where trends in the partitioning of the surface fluxes are significantly different between regular and extreme hot days, with a larger role of sensible heat flux during the extreme hot days.

In the 2023 phase of the international collaborative DECOVALEX modeling project, Task E focused on understanding thermal, hydrological, and mechanical (THM) processes related to predicting brine migration in the excavation damaged zone around a heated excavation in salt. Salt is attractive as a disposal medium for radioactive waste because it is self-healing and is essentially impermeable and non-porous in the far field. Investigation of the short-term, near-field behavior is important for radioactive waste disposal because this early period strongly controls the amount of inflowing brine. Brine leads to corrosion of waste forms and waste packages, and possible dissolution of radionuclides with brine transport being a potential transport vector to the accessible environment.The Task was divided into steps. Step 0 included matching unheated brine inflow data from boreholes at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and matching temperature observations during a Brine Availability Test in Salt (BATS) heater test. Step 1 included validation of models against a thermo-poroelastic analytical solution, and two-phase flow around an excavation. Finally, Step 2 required all the individual components covered in steps 0 and 1 to come together to match observed brine inflow behavior during the same BATS heater test.There were a range of approaches from the teams, from mechanistic to prescriptive. Given the uncertainties in the problem, some teams used one- or two-dimensional models of the processes, while other teams included more geometrical complexity in three-dimensional models. Task E was a learning experience for the teams involved, and feedback from the modeling teams has led to changes in follow-on BATS experiments at WIPP. The primary Task E lessons learned were the impact of hydrologic initialization methods (wetting up vs. drying down), the difference between confined and unconfined thermal expansion, and the large changes in permeability associated with heating and cooling.

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWIΔα). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWIΔα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWIΔα is substantial, exceeding the RFΔα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWIΔα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWIΔα component into future ESMs.

This study uses experiments from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) to compare the influence on tropical cyclone (TC) activity of: (i) the atmospheric effect of aerosols under specified sea-surface temperatures (SSTs); and (ii) the net effect of greenhouse gases (GhGs) (including changes in SSTs). The experiments were performed using the CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario with GhG-induced SST warming specified and atmospheric aerosol effects simulated but without explicit ocean coupling. Insignificant changes in global TC frequency are found in response to the atmospheric effect of future aerosols and GhGs, as significant regional responses in TC frequency counteract each other. Future GhGs contribute to more frequent TCs in the North Atlantic, and reductions over the Northwestern Pacific and Southern Indian Ocean. The atmospheric effect of future aerosols drives more frequent TCs over the Northwestern Pacific and reductions over the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic. Along with increases in TC intensity, global TC precipitation (TCP) is projected to increase by 52.8% (14.1%/K) due to the combined effect of future aerosols and GhGs. Although both forcings contribute to TCP increases (14.7–19.3% from reduced aerosols alone and 28.1–33.3% from increased GhGs alone), they lead to different responses in the spatial structure of TCP. TCP increases preferentially in the inner-core due to increased GhGs, whereas TCP decreases in the inner-core and increases in the outer-bands in response to the atmospheric effects of decreased aerosols. These changes are distinct from those caused by aerosol-induced SST changes, which have been considered in other studies.

We evaluate if electromagnetic (EM) geophysical methods for monitoring geologic carbon storage (GCS) efforts at the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project adjacent to the Dry Fork Station power plant near Gillette, Wyoming. This first involved acquiring both electric and magnetic fields at eleven different locations ranging in distance from immediately adjacent to 4 km from the plant. Passive EM measurements were made to provide spectral EM noise measurements generated by electricity production at the plant and to determine if useful magnetotelluric (MT) data can be successfully collected in the region. The processed data indicate that useful MT data can be collected as long as the site is located more than 2km away from the power plant as well as active roads and rail lines. Controlled source EM data were collected using three different source configurations, two of which connected to steel casings used to complete the injection wells. Comparing the EM noise measurements to the CSEM data show measurable electric and magnetic field signals at all sites. Next a series of three-dimensional (3D) numerical models were built that simulate resistivity changes caused by the proposed CO2 injection at depths ranging from 2.4 to 3.0km. These models were used to simulate various EM measurement configurations. The modeling shows that casing-source CSEM monitoring can provide sensitivity to the injected CO2 if source electrodes are connected to the bottom of one or both of the injection wells.

Abstract: We synthesize knowledge from numerical weather prediction, inverse theory, and statistics to address the problem of estimating a high‐dimensional covariance matrix from a small number of samples. This problem is fundamental in statistics, machine learning/artificial intelligence, and in modern Earth science. We create several new adaptive methods for high‐dimensional covariance estimation, but one method, which we call Noise‐Informed Covariance Estimation (NICE), stands out because it has three important properties: (a) NICE is conceptually simple and computationally efficient; (b) NICE guarantees symmetric positive semi‐definite covariance estimates; and (c) NICE is largely tuning‐free. We illustrate the use of NICE on a large set of Earth science–inspired numerical examples, including cycling data assimilation, inversion of geophysical field data, and training of feed‐forward neural networks with time‐averaged data from a chaotic dynamical system. Our theory, heuristics and numerical tests suggest that NICE may indeed be a viable option for high‐dimensional covariance estimation in many Earth science problems.

Radionuclide transport in smectite clay barrier systems used for nuclear waste disposal is controlled by diffusion, with adsorption significantly retarding transport rates. While a relatively minor component of spent nuclear fuel, 79Se is a major driver of the safety case for spent fuel disposal due to its long half-life (3.3 × 105 yr) and its low adsorption to clay (KD < 10 L/kg), thus a thorough understanding of Se diffusion through clay is critical for understanding the long-term safety of spent fuel disposal systems. Through-diffusion experiments with tritiated water (HTO, conservative tracer) and Se(VI) were conducted with a well-characterized, purified montmorillonite source clay (SWy-2) under a constant ionic strength (0.1 M) and three different electrolyte compositions: Na+, Ca2+, and a Na + -Ca2+ mixture at pH 6.5 in order to probe the effects of electrolyte composition and interlayer cation composition on clay microstructure, Se(VI) aqueous speciation, and ultimately diffusion. The results were modeled using a reactive transport modeling approach to determine values of porosity (ε), De (effective diffusion coefficient), and KD (distribution coefficient for adsorption). HTO diffusive flux was higher in Ca-montmorillonite (De = 1.68 × 10−10 m2 s−1) compared to Na-montmorillonite (De = 7.83 × 10−11 m2 s−1). This increase in flux is likely due to a greater degree of clay layer stacking in the presence of Ca2+ compared to Na+, which leads to larger inter-particle pores. Overall, the Se(VI) flux was much lower than the HTO flux due to anion exclusion, with Se(VI) flux following the order Ca (De = 1.03 × 10−11 m2 s−1) > Na–Ca (De = 2.12 × 10−12 m2 s−1) > Na (De = 1.28 × 10−12 m2 s−1). These differences in Se(VI) flux are due to a combination of factors, including (1) larger accessible porosity in Ca-montmorillonite due to clay layer stacking and smaller electrostatic effects compared to Na-montmorillonite, (2) larger accessible porosity for neutral-charge CaSeO4 species which makes up 32% of aqueous Se(VI) in the pure Ca system, and (3) possibly higher Se(VI) adsorption for Ca-montmorillonite. Through a combination of experimental and modeling work, this study highlights the compounding effects that electrolyte and counterion compositions can have on radionuclide transport through clay. Diffusion models that neglect these effects are not transferable from laboratory experimental conditions to in situ repository conditions.

Large volumes of liquid water transiently existed on the surface of Mars more than 3 billion years ago. Much of this water is hypothesized to have been sequestered in the subsurface or lost to space. We use rock physics models and Bayesian inversion to identify combinations of lithology, liquid water saturation, porosity, and pore shape consistent with the constrained mid-crust (∼11.5 to 20 km depths) seismic velocities and gravity near the InSight lander. A mid-crust composed of fractured igneous rocks saturated with liquid water best explains the existing data. Our results have implications for understanding Mars' water cycle, determining the fates of past surface water, searching for past or extant life, and assessing in situ resource utilization for future missions.

Abstract: Ships brighten low marine clouds from emissions of sulfur and aerosols, resulting in visible “ship tracks”. In 2020, new shipping regulations mandated an ∼80% reduction in the allowed fuel sulfur content. Recent observations indicate that visible ship tracks have decreased. Model simulations indicate that since 2020 shipping regulations have induced a net radiative forcing of +0.12 Wm−2. Analysis of recent temperature anomalies indicates Northern Hemisphere surface temperature anomalies in 2022–2023 are correlated with observed cloud radiative forcing and the cloud radiative forcing is spatially correlated with the simulated radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping emission changes. Shipping emissions changes could be accelerating global warming. To better constrain these estimates, better access to ship position data and understanding of ship aerosol emissions are needed. Understanding the risks and benefits of emissions reductions and the difficultly in robust attribution highlights the large uncertainty in attributing proposed deliberate climate intervention.

Abstract: The formation of Lau Basin records an extreme event of plate tectonics, with the associated Tonga trench exhibiting the fastest retreat in the world (16 cm/yr). Yet paleogeographic reconstructions suggest that seafloor spreading in the Lau Basin only initiated around 6 Ma. This kinematics is difficult to reconcile with our present understanding of how subduction drives plate motions. Using numerical models, we propose that eastward migration of the Lau Ridge concurrent with trench retreat explains both the narrow width and thickened crust of the Lau Basin. To match the slab geometry and basin width along the Tonga‐Kermadec trench, our models suggest that fast trench retreat rate of 16 cm/yr might start ~15 Ma. Tonga slab rollback induced vigorous mantle flow underneath the South Fiji Basin which is driving the extension and thinning of the basin and contributing to its observed deeper bathymetry compared to neighboring basins.

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times1,2, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution3-6. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of -0.34 [-0.20, -0.50] W m-2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N2O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

This study investigates the rain-initiated mixing and variability in the mixing ratio of selected trace gases in the atmosphere over the central Amazon rain forest. It builds on comprehensive data from the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO), spanning from 2013 to 2020 and comprising the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4); the reactive trace gases carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2); and selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Based on more than 1000 analyzed rainfall events, the study resolves the trace gas mixing ratio patterns before, during, and after the rain events, along with vertical mixing ratio gradients across the forest canopy. The assessment of the rainfall events was conducted independently for daytime and nighttime periods, which allows us to elucidate the influence of solar radiation. The mixing ratios of CO2, CO, and CH4 clearly declined during rainfall, which can be attributed to the downdraft-related entrainment of pristine air from higher altitudes into the boundary layer, a reduction of the photosynthetic activity under increased cloud cover, and changes in the surface fluxes. Notably, CO showed a faster reduction than CO2, and the vertical gradient of CO2 and CO is steeper than for CH4. Conversely, the O3 mixing ratio increased across all measurement heights in the course of the rain-related downdrafts. Following the O3 enhancement by up to a factor of 2, NO, NO2, and isoprene mixing ratios decreased. The temporal and vertical variability of the trace gases is intricately linked to the diverse sink and source processes, surface fluxes, and free-troposphere transport. Within the canopy, several interactions unfold among soil, atmosphere, and plants, shaping the overall dynamics. Also, the mixing ratio of biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) clearly varied with rainfall, driven by factors such as light, temperature, physical transport, and soil processes. Our results disentangle the patterns in the trace gas mixing ratio in the course of sudden and vigorous atmospheric mixing during rainfall events. By selectively uncovering processes that are not clearly detectable under undisturbed conditions, our results contribute to a better understanding of the trace gas life cycle and its interplay with meteorology, cloud dynamics, and rainfall in the Amazon.

Induced seismicity poses a challenge to the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Improving monitoring and forecasting techniques is essential to mitigate induced seismicity and thereby fostering a positive perception of EGS projects among local authorities and population. Induced seismicity is the result of complex and coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical mechanisms. Injection flux and pressure are crucial controlling parameters for both hydraulic stimulation and circulation protocols. We develop a methodology combining a hydro-mechanical model with a seismicity rate model to estimate the magnitude and frequency of mainshocks and aftershocks induced by fluid injection. We apply the methodology to the case of the Basel EGS (2006, Switzerland) to compare the effects of progressive, cyclic and constant injections on the mechanical response of discrete faults. Results from the coupled hydro-mechanical models show that the pore pressure diffusion and consequent enhancement of fault permeability are limited to the vicinity of the injection well during cyclic injection. Additionally, constant injection induces seismicity from the start of the injection but enhances the permeability of most of the faults within a shorter duration, inducing less post-injection seismicity. The methodology can be adapted to any numerical model and allows new projects to be developed by anticipating the safest injection protocol.This article is part of the theme issue 'Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems'.

Abstract: —J. Blunden and T. Boyer In 2023, La Niña conditions that generally prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean from mid-2020 into early 2023 gave way to a strong El Niño by October. Atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all increased to record-high levels. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 419.3±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. The growth from 2022 to 2023 was 2.8 ppm, the fourth highest in the record since the 1960s. The combined short-term effects of El Niño and the long-term effects of increasing levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere contributed to new records for many essential climate variables reported here. The annual global temperature across land and oceans was the highest in records dating as far back as 1850, with the last seven months (June–December) having each been record warm. Over land, the globally averaged temperature was also record high. Dozens of countries reported record or near-record warmth for the year, including China and continental Europe as a whole (warmest on record), India and Russia (second warmest), and Canada (third warmest). Intense and widespread heatwaves were reported around the world. In Vietnam, an all-time national maximum temperature record of 44.2°C was observed at Tuong Duong on 7 May, surpassing the previous record of 43.4°C at Huong Khe on 20 April 2019. In Brazil, the air temperature reached 44.8°C in Araçuaí in Minas Gerais on 20 November, potentially a new national record and 12.8°C above normal. The effect of rising temperatures was apparent in the cryosphere, where snow cover extent by June 2023 was the smallest in the 56-year record for North America and seventh smallest for the Northern Hemisphere overall. Heatwaves contributed to the greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Due to rapid volume loss beginning in 2021, St. Anna Glacier in Switzerland and Ice Worm Glacier in the United States disappeared completely. In August, as a direct result of glacial thinning over the past 20 years, a glacial lake on a tributary of the Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska burst through its ice dam and caused unprecedented flooding on Mendenhall River near Juneau. Across the Arctic, the annual surface air temperature was the fourth highest in the 124-year record, and summer (July–September) was record warm. Smaller-than-normal snow cover extent in May and June contributed to the third-highest average peak tundra greenness in the 24-year record. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the fifth smallest in the 45-year satellite record. The 17 lowest September extents have all occurred in the last 17 years. In Antarctica, temperatures for much of the year were up to 6°C above average over the Weddell Sea and along coastal Dronning Maud Land. The Antarctic Peninsula also experienced well-above-average temperatures during the 2022/23 melt season, which contributed to its fourth consecutive summer of above-average surface melt. On 21 February, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time lows, surpassing records set just a year earlier. Over the course of the year, new daily record-low sea ice extents were set on 278 days. In some instances, these daily records were set by a large margin, for example, the extent on 6 July was 1.8 million km2 lower than the previous record low for that day. Across the global oceans, the annual sea surface temperature was the highest in the 170-year record, far surpassing the previous record of 2016 by 0.13°C. Daily and monthly records were set from March onward, including an historic-high daily global mean sea surface temperature of 18.99°C recorded on 22 August. Approximately 94% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2023, while 27% experienced at least one cold spell. Globally averaged ocean heat content from the surface to 2000-m depth was record high in 2023, increasing at a rate equivalent to ∼0.7 Watts per square meter of energy applied over Earth’s surface. Global mean sea level was also record high for the 12th consecutive year, reaching 101.4 mm above the 1993 average when satellite measurements began, an increase of 8.1±1.5 mm over 2022 and the third highest year-over-year increase in the record. A total of 82 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemispheres’ storm seasons, below the 1991–2020 average of 87. Hurricane Otis became the strongest landfalling hurricane on record for the west coast of Mexico at 140 kt (72 m s−1), causing at least 52 fatalities and $12–16 billion U.S. dollars in damage. Freddy became the world’s longest-lived tropical cyclones on record, developing into a tropical cyclone on 6 February and finally dissipating on 12 March. Freddy crossed the full width of the Indian Ocean and made one landfall in Madagascar and two in Mozambique. In the Mediterranean Sea—outside of traditional tropical cyclone basins—heavy rains and flooding from Storm Daniel killed more than 4300 people and left more than 8000 missing in Libya. The record-warm temperatures in 2023 created conditions that helped intensify the hydrological cycle. Measurements of total-column water vapor in the atmosphere were the highest on record, while the fraction of cloud area in the sky was the lowest since records began in 1980. The annual global mean precipitation total over land surfaces for 2023 was among the lowest since 1979, but global one-day maximum totals were close to average, indicating an increase in rainfall intensity. In July, record-high areas of land across the globe (7.9%) experienced extreme drought, breaking the previous record of 6.2% in July 2022. Overall, 29.7% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year, also a record. Mexico reported its driest (and hottest) year since the start of its record in 1950. In alignment with hot and prolonged dry conditions, Canada experienced its worst national wildfire season on record. Approximately 15 million hectares burned across the country, which was more than double the previous record from 1989. Smoke from the fires were transported far into the United States and even to western European countries. August to October 2023 was the driest three-month period in Australia in the 104-year record. Millions of hectares of bushfires burned for weeks in the Northern Territory. In South America, extreme drought developed in the latter half of the year through the Amazon basin. By the end of October, the Rio Negro at Manaus, a major tributary of the Amazon River, fell to its lowest water level since records began in 1902. The transition from La Niña to El Niño helped bring relief to the prolonged drought conditions in equatorial eastern Africa. However, El Niño along with positive Indian Ocean dipole conditions also contributed to excessive rainfall that resulted in devastating floods over southeastern Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya during October to December that displaced around 1.5 million people. On 5 September, the town of Zagora, Greece, broke a national record for highest daily rainfall (754 mm in 21 hours, after which the station ceased reporting) due to Storm Daniel; this one-day accumulation was close to Zagora’s normal annual total.

Climate change will impact mountain watershed streamflow both directly—with changing precipitation amounts and variability—and indirectly—through temperature shifts altering snowpack, melt, and evapotranspiration. To understand how these complex processes will affect ecosystem functioning and water resources, we need tools to distinguish connections between water sources (rain/snowmelt), groundwater storage, and exit fluxes (streamflow/evapotranspiration), and to determine how these connections change seasonally and as climate shifts. Here, we develop novel watershed-scale approaches to understand water source, storage, and exit flux connections using a dynamic-flux particle tracking model (EcoSLIM) applied in California's Cosumnes Watershed, which connects the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley. This work develops new visualizations and applications to provide mechanistic understanding that underpins the interpretation of isotopic field data at watershed scales to distinguish sources, flow paths, residence times, and storage selection. In our simulations, streamflow comes primarily from snow-derived water while evapotranspiration generally comes from rain. Most streamflow starts above 1,000 m while evapotranspiration is sourced relatively evenly across the watershed and is generally younger than streamflow. Modeled streamflow consists primarily of water sourced from precipitation in the previous 5 years but before the current water year, while ET consists primarily of water from precipitation in the current water year. ET, and to a lesser extent streamflow, are both younger than water in groundwater storage. However, snowmelt-derived streamflow preferentially discharges older water from snow-derived storage. Dynamic-flux particle tracking and new approaches presented here enable novel model-tracer comparisons in large-scale watersheds to better understand watershed behavior in a changing climate.

During the 2015–2016 El Niño, the Amazon basin released almost one gigaton of carbon (GtC) into the atmosphere due to extreme temperatures and drought. The link between the drought impact and recovery of the total carbon pools and its biogeochemical drivers is still unknown. With satellite-constrained net carbon exchange and its component fluxes including gross primary production and fire emissions, we show that the total carbon loss caused by the 2015–2016 El Niño had not recovered by the end of 2018. Forest ecosystems over the Northeastern (NE) Amazon suffered a cumulative total carbon loss of ∼0.6 GtC through December 2018, driven primarily by a suppression of photosynthesis whereas southeastern savannah carbon loss was driven in part by fire. We attribute the slow recovery to the unexpected large carbon loss caused by the severe atmospheric aridity coupled with a water storage deficit during drought. We show the attenuation of carbon uptake is three times higher than expected from the pre-drought sensitivity to atmospheric aridity and ground water supply. Our study fills an important knowledge gap in our understanding of the unexpectedly enhanced response of carbon fluxes to atmospheric aridity and water storage deficit and its impact on regional post-drought recovery as a function of the vegetation types and climate perturbations. Our results suggest that the disproportionate impact of water supply and demand could compromise resiliency of the Amazonian carbon balance to future increases in extreme events.

Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM-FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold-induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

We introduce a new isotope chronological model in which the natural mass-dependent isotopic fractionation effects of the radioactive (“parent”) and radiogenic (“daughter”) elements are systematically and rigorously considered. Using this model, we show that internally-normalized radiogenic isotopic ratios, commonly determined for daughter elements such as Sr, Nd, Cr, Ni, Hf, W, and Os, are dependent on the extent of natural isotopic fractionation of the daughter and parent elements at the time of system closure. This dependence indicates that (1) in two samples derived from the same isotopically homogeneous source at the same time and with identical radiogenic ingrowth over time, the present-day internally-normalized radiogenic isotope ratios would be different if they were initially fractionated to different degrees, and (2) if different internally-normalized radiogenic isotopic ratios are observed for two co-genetic objects, the difference between them would include contributions from both radiogenic ingrowth and natural isotopic fractionation. Consequently, the isochron dating equations employed in traditional chronological studies will yield inaccurate results when significant natural isotopic fractionation is present among the studied samples. Modified isochron equations that can be used to retrieve correct chronological information from isotopically-fractionated samples are presented. These theoretical considerations are applied to the 87Rb–87Sr, 147Sm–143Nd, and 146Sm–142Nd isotope systems of calcium–aluminium-rich inclusions (CAIs), a set of samples that have undergone significant natural Sr, Nd, and Sm isotope fractionation during their formation. The large natural Sr isotope fractionation (up to ca. 5.3 ‰ for 88Sr/86Sr) in fine-grained CAIs can generate analytically well-resolvable biases (>120 ppm) in the internally-normalized 87Sr/86Sr ratios and lead to significant scatters of their 87Rb–87Sr isochron (in conjunction with scatters induced by open-system disturbances). The 87Rb–87Sr systems of coarse-grained CAIs, on the contrary, are essentially not affected by natural Sr isotopic fractionation due to their much subdued fractionation degrees, resulting in a more robust isochron. Similarly, the large natural Nd (up to ca. 4.0 ‰ for 146Nd/144Nd) and Sm (up to ca. 7.1 ‰ for 152Sm/148Sm) isotopic fractionation in fine-grained CAIs can induce significant scatters of the 147Sm–143Nd isochron if the natural fractionation followed the kinetic or power law, and 146Sm–142Nd isochron if the natural fractionation followed the equilibrium, Rayleigh, or power law. This implies that when studying radioactive isotope systems in objects whose daughter and parent elements can undergo significant isotope fractionation in nature, accompanying stable isotope analyses are necessary for accurate chronological interpretations.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

Abstract: Multiphase oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important source of sulfate in the atmosphere. There are, however, concerns that protons produced during SO2 oxidation may cause rapid acidification of aerosol water and thereby quickly shut down the fast reactions favored at high pH. Here, we show that the sustainability of sulfate production is controlled by the competing effects of multiphase buffering and acidification, which can be well described by a characteristic buffering time, τbuff. Both GEOS‐Chem simulations and observations show that globally, τbuff is long enough (days) to sustain sulfate production over most populated regions, where the acidification of aerosol water is counteracted by the strong buffering effect of NH4+/NH3. Our results highlight the importance of anthropogenic ammonia emissions and pervasive human influences in shaping the chemical environment of the atmosphere.

Abstract: The upper mantle under the Afar Depression in the East African Rift displays some of the slowest seismic wave speeds observed globally. Despite the extreme nature of the geophysical anomaly, lavas that erupted along the East African Rift record modest thermal anomalies. We present measurements of major elements, H2O, S, and CO2, and Fe3+/ΣFe and S6+/ΣS in submarine glasses from the Gulf of Aden seafloor spreading center and olivine‐, plagioclase‐, and pyroxene‐hosted melt inclusions from Erta Ale volcano in the Afar Depression. We combine these measurements with literature data to place constraints on the temperature, H2O, and fO2 of the mantle sources of these lavas as well as the initial and final pressures of melting. The Afar mantle plume is C/FOZO/PHEM in isotopic composition, and we suggest that this mantle component is damp, with 852 ± 167 ppm H2O, not elevated in fO2 compared to the depleted MORB mantle, and has temperatures of ∼1401–1458°C. This is similar in fO2 and H2O to the estimates of C/FOZO/PHEM in other locations. Using the moderate H2O contents of the mantle together with the moderate thermal anomaly, we find that melting begins at around 93 km depth and ceases at around 63 km depth under the Afar Depression and at around 37 km depth under the Gulf of Aden, and that ∼1%–29% partial melts of the mantle can be generated under these conditions. We speculate that the presence of melt, and not elevated temperatures or high H2O contents, are the cause for the prominent geophysical anomaly observed in this region.

California contains a broad geography over which climate conditions can be suitable for cultivating multiple varieties of winegrapes. However, climate change is projected to make winegrape cultivation more challenging across many of California's winegrowing regions. In order to understand the potential effects of climate change on winegrapes, this study models variety-specific phenology for six winegrape varieties and quantifies the change in phenology and viticulturally-important agroclimate metrics over 12 of California's American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) by the mid-21st century. Results show more rapid development for winegrapes with earlier budburst, flowering, veraison, and maturation across all varieties and AVAs. Cabernet Sauvignon shows the greatest change in phenology timing, while Chardonnay shows the least change. Likewise, the West Sonoma Coast AVA shows the greatest average change in phenology timing across varieties and development stages and Lodi AVA shows the least. Projected changes in agroclimatic metrics include an additional month of potentially damaging heat days (above 35 °C) in some AVAs, and decreases in frost days. These results have implications for numerous factors related to viticultural production, including water resources management and crop yield and quality, and underscore the need for California winegrape growers to improve their resilience to climate change by adopting strategies such as increasing soil health and water use efficiency and selecting cultivars suited for future climate conditions. By conducting climate effects analyses at the variety-specific and AVA scale, important information is provided to the winegrowing industry at a resolution that can support decision-making towards resilience.

Present and future climatic trends are expected to markedly alter water fluxes and stores in the hydrologic cycle. In addition, water demand continues to grow due to increased human use and a growing population. Sustainably managing water resources requires a thorough understanding of water storage and flow in natural, agricultural, and urban ecosystems. Measurements of stable isotopes of water (hydrogen and oxygen) in the water cycle (atmosphere, soils, plants, surface water, and groundwater) can provide information on the transport pathways, sourcing, dynamics, ages, and storage pools of water that is difficult to obtain with other techniques. However, the potential of these techniques for practical questions has not been fully exploited yet. Here, we outline the benefits and limitations of potential applications of stable isotope methods useful to water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders. We also describe several case studies demonstrating how stable isotopes of water can support water management decision-making. Finally, we propose a workflow that guides users through a sequence of decisions required to apply stable isotope methods to examples of water management issues. We call for ongoing dialogue and a stronger connection between water management stakeholders and water stable isotope practitioners to identify the most pressing issues and develop best-practice guidelines to apply these techniques.

The long-lived radiotoxicity of the high-level radioactive waste generated by nuclear power plants requires safe isolation from the biosphere for many hundreds of thousands of years. An international consensus has emerged that such isolation can best be provided by disposal in mined geologic repositories, a strategy that today is pursued by most countries dealing with radioactive waste. However, the need to predict the performance of such repositories over very long time periods generates large uncertainties that have to be accounted for in safety assessments. The findings from such safety assessments need to be conveyed to all stakeholders in a clear way, such that public confidence in geologic disposal solutions can be achieved. It is suggested here that close international collaboration on the technical aspects of geologic waste disposal has helped, and will continue to help, building trust and increasing confidence. This paper discusses a particular international collaboration initiative referred to as DECOVALEX, which brings together multiple teams and disciplines to collectively tackle complex experimental and modeling challenges related to geologic disposal. By describing how DECOVALEX works and by providing joint research examples, a case is made that such international collaboration contributes to knowledge transfer and confidence building in radioactive waste disposal science.

Abstract: Terrestrial groundwater travels through subterranean estuaries before reaching the sea. Groundwater‐derived nutrients drive coastal water quality, primary production, and eutrophication. We determined how dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP), and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) are transformed within subterranean estuaries and estimated submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) nutrient loads compiling > 10,000 groundwater samples from 216 sites worldwide. Nutrients exhibited complex, nonconservative behavior in subterranean estuaries. Fresh groundwater DIN and DIP are usually produced, and DON is consumed during transport. Median total SGD (saline and fresh) fluxes globally were 5.4, 2.6, and 0.18 Tmol yr−1 for DIN, DON, and DIP, respectively. Despite large natural variability, total SGD fluxes likely exceed global riverine nutrient export. Fresh SGD is a small source of new nutrients, but saline SGD is an important source of mostly recycled nutrients. Nutrients exported via SGD via subterranean estuaries are critical to coastal biogeochemistry and a significant nutrient source to the oceans.

Groundwater aquifers worldwide experience unsustainable depletion, compounded by population growth, economic development, and climate forcing. Managed aquifer recharge provides one tool to alleviate flood risk and replenish groundwater. However, concerns grow that intentional flooding of farmland for groundwater recharge, a practice known as Ag-MAR, may increase the leaching of pesticides and other chemicals into groundwater. This study employs a physically based unsaturated flow model to determine the fate and transport of residues of four pesticide in three vadose zone profiles characterized by differing fractions of sand (41 %, 61 %, and 84 %) in California's Central Valley. Here, we show that the complex heterogeneity of alternating coarse and fine-grain hydrogeologic units controls the transit times of pesticides and their adsorption and degradation rates. Unsaturated zones that contain a higher fraction of sand are more prone to support preferential flow, higher recharge rates (+8 %), and faster (42 %) water flow and pesticide transport, more flooding-induced pesticide leaching (about 22 %), as well as more salt leaching correlating with increased risks of groundwater contamination. Interestingly, considering preferential flow predicted higher degradation and retention rates despite shorter travel times, attributed to the trapping of pesticides in immobile zones where they degrade more effectively. The findings underscore the importance of considering soil texture and structure in Ag-MAR practices to minimize environmental risks while enhancing groundwater recharge. The study also highlights that selecting less mobile pesticides can reduce leaching risks in sandy areas.

Urban landscapes homogenize our world at global scales, contributing to “extinction of experience”, a progressive decline in human interactions with native greenspace that can disconnect people from the services it provides. College age adults report feeling disconnected from nature more than other demographics, making universities a logical place to explore interventions intended to restore a connection with nature. This study surveyed 1088 students and staff across four university campus communities in Southern California, USA and used multicriteria decision analysis to explore their landscape preferences and the implications of those preferences for combatting extinction of experience. Our results suggest that perspectives of, and preferences for, different greenspace forms vary significantly (i.e., they are not perceived as substitutable). Support for native ecosystems, particularly coastal sage scrub (top ranked landscape) was generally high, suggesting that disaffection with wild nature is not particularly widespread. Programs for replacing turf grass lawns (lowest ranked landscape) with native plants were also well supported, but support for stormwater bioswales was more moderate (and variable). This may reflect their relative newness, both on university campuses and in urban spaces more generally. Not all members of campus communities preferred the same landscapes; preferences differed with degree of pro-environmentalism and university status (undergraduate student, graduate student, staff). Even so, all respondents exhibited landscape preferences consistent with at least one approach for combatting extinction of experience, suggesting that ecologists, engineers and urban planners have a viable set of generalizable tools for reconnecting people with nature.

Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High- and low-resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high- and low-resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high-pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near-surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

Rock salt is considered a suitable medium for the permanent disposal of heat-generating radioactive waste due to its isolation properties. However, excavation damage and heating induce complex and heterogeneous thermal-hydrological-mechanical (THM) processes across different zones. Quantifying this heterogeneity is crucial for accurate long-term performance assessment models, but traditional methods lack the necessary resolution. This study employs 4D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) monitoring during controlled heating experiments in a salt formation to unravel the spatiotemporal dynamics of THM processes. Advanced time-lapse inversion and clustering analysis quantify subsurface properties and map the heterogeneity of THM dynamics. The ERT results can estimate subsurface properties and delineate the damaged and intact zones, enabling appropriate parameterization and representation of processes for long-term modeling. This approach may be used in further improving the predictive models and ensuring the safe long-term disposal of radioactive waste in rock salt.

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) deliver significant and essential precipitation to the western United States (US) with consequential interannual variability. The intensity and frequency of ARs strongly influence reservoir levels, mountain snowpack, and groundwater recharge, which are key drivers of water‐resource availability and natural hazards. Between October 2022 and April 2023, western states experienced exceptionally heavy precipitation from several families of powerful ARs. Using observations of surface‐loading deformation from Global Navigation Satellite Systems, we find that terrestrial water‐storage gains exceeded 100% of normal within vital California watersheds. Independent water‐storage solutions derived from different data‐analysis and inversion methods provide an important measure of precision. The sustained storage increases, which we show are closely associated with ARs at daily‐to‐weekly timescales, alleviated both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions in the region, with a lag in hydrological‐drought improvements. Quantifying water‐storage recovery associated with extreme precipitation after drought advances understanding of an increasingly variable hydrologic cycle.

Abstract: The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO–SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper-tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs, while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO teleconnections with certain surface impacts. Significance Statement: The QBO is one of the few parts of the Earth system that is predictable months in advance and that also elicits global effects on surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation. Unfortunately, climate models and operational forecast systems do not simulate the QBO well and it is not always clear how robust the global impacts of the QBO are. Here, we impose the QBO in idealized model simulations, which modulates wintertime surface temperature and precipitation over Asia, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Africa in a manner consistent with observations. This work substantiates the importance of climate and forecast models properly simulating the QBO.

Australian mega-wildfires in the summer of 2019-2020 injected smoke into the stratosphere, causing strong ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. Here, we model the smoke plume and reproduce its unexpected trajectory toward the middle stratosphere at ~35-kilometer altitude. We show that a smoke-charged vortex (SCV) induced and maintained by absorbing aerosols played a key role in lofting pollutants from the lower stratosphere and nearly doubled the southern hemispheric aerosol burden in the middle stratosphere. The SCV caused a redistribution of stratospheric aerosols, which boosted heterogeneous chemistry in the middle stratosphere and enhanced ozone production, compensating for up to 70% of the ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere. As global warming continues, we expect a growing frequency and importance of SCVs in promoting the impacts of wildfires on stratospheric aerosols and chemistry.

Complete representation of rainfall–runoff responses in complex, large watersheds using a single-objective parameterization approach in watershed models is often unachievable. In this study we present a calibration approach for the SWAT+ model that independently fits model parameters for different flow segments of the hydrograph. The approach is demonstrated for the Feather River, California, USA, using daily streamflow from the Lake Oroville Reservoir outlet gage. Results show that when model parameters were independently fitted for different flow segments the KGE, NSE, PBIAS, and RSR values improved to 0.96, 0.99, −3.3, and 0.10, respectively, compared to 0.72, 0.66, −9.30, and 0.53, respectively, achieved under a multiobjective and full hydrograph (average hydrograph) calibration. The results highlight that when considering the average hydrograph and flow duration curves, a more balanced representation of both poorly and well-performing segments is achieved, emphasizing the importance of segment-specific parameterization and multi-objective evaluation for accurately representing different flow conditions.

Climate influences near-surface biogeochemical processes and thereby determines the partitioning of carbon dioxide (CO2) in shale, and yet the controls on carbon (C) weathering fluxes remain poorly constrained. Using a dataset that characterizes biogeochemical responses to climate forcing in shale regolith, we implement a numerical model that describes the effects of water infiltration events, gas exchange, and temperature fluctuations on soil respiration and mineral weathering at a seasonal timescale. Our modeling approach allows us to quantitatively disentangle the controls of transient climate forcing and biogeochemical mechanisms on C partitioning. We find that ~3% of soil CO2 (1.02 mol C/m2/y) is exported to the subsurface during large infiltration events. Here, net atmospheric CO2 drawdown primarily occurs during spring snowmelt, governs the aqueous C exports (61%), and exceeds the CO2 flux generated by pyrite and petrogenic organic matter oxidation (~0.2 mol C/m2/y). We show that shale CO2 consumption results from the temporal coupling between soil microbial respiration and carbonate weathering. This coupling is driven by the impacts of hydrologic fluctuations on fresh organic matter availability and CO2 transport to the weathering front. Diffusion-limited transport of gases under transient hydrological conditions exerts an important control on CO2(g) egress patterns and thus must be considered when inferring soil CO2 drawdown from the gas phase composition. Our findings emphasize the importance of seasonal climate forcing in shaping the net contribution of shale weathering to terrestrial C fluxes and suggest that warmer conditions could reduce the potential for shale weathering to act as a CO2 sink.