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RESUMO Após 12 anos de governos kirchneristas, uma coalização política liberal-conservadora consegue ganhar o poder na Argentina em 2015. Prometendo um retorno ao mundo com abertura comercial e liberalização econômica, o governo de Mauricio Macri chegou a seu último ano em uma grave crise econômica. O objetivo deste artigo é analisar de que forma as reformas econômicas promovidas pelo governo deterioraram significativamente as perspectivas futuras para economia argentina. ABSTRACT After 12 years of Kirchner’s governments, a liberal-conservative political coalition manages to gain power in 2015 in Argentina. Promising a return to the world trough commercial openness and economic liberalization, President Macri’s government reached its last year in serious economic crisis. This article aims to analyze how the economic reforms promoted by the government seriously aggravated the future perspectives of Argentinean economy.

Artículo de revista According to the balance of payments (BoP) statistics, in an environment of ongoing economic upturn, Spain was once again a net lender in 2018, albeit to a lesser extent than in preceding years. The decline in net lending is explained by the decrease in the goods and services surplus, which largely reflected the slowdown in external markets, the negative impact on exports of the cumulative euro appreciation since 2017 and the rise in oil prices. The nation’s net lending, the positive amount of other flows and GDP growth were conducive to a decline in the Spanish economy’s negative net international investment position (IIP), as a percentage of GDP, for the fourth year in succession. In terms of financial flows, international investors made net purchases under the portfolio investment (mainly, long-term bonds issued by general government) and direct investment headings in 2018, a sign of their continuing confidence in the Spanish economy, despite the deterioration in the global macro-financial scenario in the second half of the year. However, the fact that the Spanish economy’s negative net IIP remains high (77.1% of GDP), both historically and by international standards, makes it vulnerable to shocks in the international capital markets

Research background: Amidst deepening economic internationalization and financial globalization, multinational banks remain the most important financial intermediaries in the international debt capital market. By ensuring the cross-border movement and redistribution of credit resources, multinational banks’ credit activities lead to the accumulation of external indebtedness in the host countries. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article is to substantiate scientific and practical recommendations for improving multinational banks’ credit activities regulations in order to minimize their negative impact on the level of external indebtedness and the formation of the debt-type economy in the host countries. Methods: Methods of abstraction, systematization and generalization, as well as system approach have been used in our research. Findings & Value added: A hierarchical system of multinational banks’ credit activity regulation, which includes institutional-subjective (the level of multinational banks themselves), macro-regional (the level of the home country and host countries), mega- and meta-regional, and global levels have been proposed. Scientific and practical approaches to regulating multinational banks’ credit activities, which are based on the introduction of special regulatory measures by the countries with debt-type economies (transformation of external financing sources, revision of forms of credit cooperation with multinational banks, intensification of inclusion in the processes of securitization of credit relations, introduction of a system of macroprudential regulation instruments, increasing the level of international liquidity), have been developed.

The papers in this series aim to provide a vehicle for publishing preliminary results on Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management (MFM) topics to encourage discussion and debate. This paper explores two new financing mechanisms that multilateral and bilateral development agencies could consider deploying to address problems of debt sustainability in small states. In this paper the authors provide an initial assessment of these proposals, informed by analysis of small state indebtedness and recent debt dynamics. Proposed financing instruments are predicated on assumptions that small states face high levels of indebtedness, and that reducing debt levels while increasing climate resilience could sustainably reduce such vulnerabilities. The authors find that levels of indebtedness vary widely across small states. Analysis of small state debt dynamics shows that small state debt accumulation has been driven by large primary and current account deficits and slow economic growth. Debt reduction from new mechanisms can only be expected to be sustainable, therefore, if countries simultaneously address the macroeconomic imbalances driving debt accumulation. The authors demonstrate that, while exposure to natural disasters is likely to have exacerbated economic management challenges in some small states, such exposures are unlikely to be the only important cause of indebtedness. The authors conclude that proposed new financing instruments can potentially help reduce small state debt burdens and gain fiscal space for climate adaptation but will not present a sustainable solution to problems of small state debt risks unless they involve macroeconomic and structural reforms to address the underlying imbalances driving rapid debt accumulation.

Rastuće razine vanjskog duga problem su većine ekonomija euro zone. Portugal, Irska, Italija, Grčka i Španjolska su države koje su se u uvjetima zajedničke valute, monetarne unije i financijske krize najlošije snašle i zbog toga su poznate pod akronimom PIIGS. Cilj rada bio je istražiti održivost vanjske zaduženosti ovih zemalja. Analizirajući pokazatelje vanjske zaduženosti i makroekonomske performanse ovih zemalja i uspoređujući ih sa drugim europskim državama (Austrija, Njemačka, Luksemburg, Belgija, Francuska), došli smo do zaključka kako jedino Irska u posljednjih 5 godina ostvaruje stope gospodarskog rasta više od stopi rasta vanjske zaduženosti. Osim toga, pomoću cluster analize utvrdili smo kako postoje razlike između ove dvije skupine zemalja u vidu BDP-a per capita, produktivnosti rada, nezaposlenosti, ulaganja u r&d i udijela izvoza u BDP-u. Zbog svega navedenog zaključili smo kako još postoji velika heterogenost između zemalja eurozone na čijem smanjenju bi trebalo raditi u cilju jače integracije i većeg prosperiteta. Rising levels of external debt positions are problems that most euro area economies are faced with. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are countries that were considered to be the weakest ones in terms of coping with the single currency introduction, monetary union and financial crisis, therefore were given the acronym PIIGS. The objective of this paper was to explore sustainability of external indebtedness of these countries. By analysing the indicators of external indebtedness and macroeconomic performances of these countries and comparing them with other european countries (Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, France), we have come to the conclusion that only Ireland in the last 5 years records higher economic growth rates than the external debt growth rates. Furthermore, using cluster analysis, we found existing differences between two groups of countries, in terms of GDP per capita, GDP per hour worked, unemployment, r&d investments and shares of exports in GDP. Becouse of all of the above we have come to the conclusion that there is a great heterogeneity between euro area members, improvements should be done for reducing it, in order to gain stronger integration and greater prosperity.

Sub-Saharan African countries as a group showed a considerable reduction in public and external indebtedness in the early 2000s as a result of debt relief programs, higher economic growth, and improved fiscal management for some countries. More recently, however, vulnerabilities in some countries are on the rise, including a few with very rapid debt accumulation. This paper looks at the heterogeneous experiences across Sub-Saharan African countries and the detailed dynamics that have driven changes in public debt since the global financial crisis. Borrowing to support fiscal deficits since 2009, including through domestic markets and Eurobond issuance, has driven a net increase in public debt for all countries except oil exporters benefitting from buoyant commodity prices and fragile states receiving post-2008 Highly Indebted Poor Country relief. Current account deficits and foreign direct investment inflows drove the external debt dynamics, with balance of payments problems associated with very rapid external debt accumulation in some cases. Pockets of increasing vulnerabilities of debt financing profiles and sensitivity of debt burden indicators to macro-fiscal shocks require close monitoring. Specific risks that policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa need to pay attention to going forward include the recent fall in commodity prices, especially oil, the slowdown in China and the sluggish recovery in Europe, dependence on non-debt-creating flows, and accounting for contingent liabilities.

Kenya’s economic performance remains solid, underpinned by strong infrastructure spending and consumer demand, which are driving growth. Growth in 2015 is estimated at 5.4 percent, a 0.6 percent downward revision from its estimate in December 2014. The revision reflects the strong headwinds the economy is facing in the foreign exchange market and the monetary policy response to calm those fears.

The paper finds a moderate evolution in public debt ratios since debt relief among heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and multilateral debt relief initiative (MDRI) recipient countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with certain exceptions. For eight countries the authors find rapid rates of debt accumulation, which can return them to pre-HIPC debt levels in only a few years. Short-term domestic debt has, despite early fears, in general not filled the borrowing space created by debt relief. However, external debt accumulation on commercial terms in some cases presages repayment spikes, which may combine with short-term domestic obligations to amplify refinancing risk and cause abrupt reductions in public spending, with damaging consequences for development. Finally, despite reduced debt, African economies continue to be commodity dependent and prone to shocks. As global interest rates and commodity prices revert to historically more customary levels, these countries should remain prudent: avoid tax-base erosion, prevent large recurrent spending hikes, and invest wisely in growth, by executing projects effectively to enhance infrastructure. These fiscal fundamentals will be as important for debt sustainability as how much is borrowed and on which terms.

This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.

Devaluation is the instrument of monetary policy which has been used very often during the 20th century. In recent time of globalization, the many limited factors (openness of the economy, capital movements, currency substitution, money illusion) significantly reduce or completely make impossible the devaluation implementation as the measure for foreign trade deficit or recession overcoming in many countries. This paper discusses on positive and negative effects of devaluation in the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina economy.

This paper argues that global imbalances in current account positions are a natural consequence of globalization of financial markets and of demographic trends, particularly in Europe and in East Asia. Those societies are aging rapidly, with declining numbers of young adults. On both counts savings should be high and investment weak, resulting in excess saving. With globalization of capital markets, this excess saving will naturally seek secure investment opportunities abroad. The U.S. economy, where demographic trends are markedly different (due in part to immigration of young adults), offers a good combination of yield, liquidity, and security for this excess savings, which in time will be liquidated to finance consumption in old age. Thus the large 'imbalance' does not obviously reflect disequilibria in the world economy, but rather a current phase of intertemporal trade.

This study examines the international economic integration of Brazil and Argentina during the period of 1990-1999, and assesses the vulnerability of the two foreign countries. From the evolution of the flows of trade balance (coefficient of openness), the balance of services and capital, is the analysis of international economic integration. The analysis of the current account deficit, of how it is financed, the denationalization of the economy, the balance of international reserves of foreign debt and the coefficient of vulnerability, will assess the behavior of external vulnerability. It follows that the international economic integration of Brazil and Argentina, through the adoption of policies of adjustment recommended by the Washington Consensus, took place in a subordinate and dependent on large economic and financial centers, to the extent that the two countries acted as receivers in the pattern of shortterm, resulting from trade liberalization, supported by the overvalued exchange rate, which caused a structural change in the trade balance, making it the deficit. There was an increase in vulnerability in the two countries, because the external accounts have deteriorated, increased the foreign debt grew and the degree of internationalization of production through greater presence of foreign equity companies, increasing the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of international groups. Moreover, the inadequacy and inconsistency of these policies are also evidenced by the low GDP growth and rising unemployment. Este estudo analisa a inserção econômica internacional do Brasil e da Argentina, no período de 1990-1999, e avalia a vulnerabilidade externa dos dois países. A partir da evolução dos fluxos da balança comercial (coeficiente de abertura), da balança de serviços e de capitais, é feita a análise da inserção econômica internacional. Com a análise do déficit em conta corrente, da forma com que ele é financiado, da desnacionalização da economia, do saldo das reservas internacionais, do endividamento externo e do coeficiente de vulnerabilidade, será avaliado o comportamento da vulnerabilidade externa. Conclui-se que a inserção econômica internacional de Brasil e Argentina, através da adoção das políticas de ajuste recomendadas pelo Consenso de Washington, deu-se de forma subordinada e dependente aos grandes centros econômicos e financeiros, na medida em que os dois países atuaram como receptores dos fluxos financeiros de curto prazo, resultantes da abertura comercial, apoiadas na sobrevalorização do câmbio, a qual provocou uma mudança estrutural na balança comercial, tornando-a deficitária. Verifica-se que houve um aumento na vulnerabilidade nos dois países, pois as contas externas se deterioraram, aumentou o endividamento externo e cresceu o grau de internacionalização da produção por meio de maior presença de empresas de capital estrangeiro, ampliando a concentração de renda e poder nas mãos de grupos internacionais. Além disso, a inconsistência e a inadequação dessas políticas também são comprovadas pelo baixo crescimento do PIB e pelo aumento do desemprego.

Even as African countries became increasingly indebted from 1970 to 2004, they experienced large-scale capital flight. Some of this was legitimately acquired capital fleeing economic and political uncertainties; some was illegitimately acquired wealth spirited to safer havens abroad. This paper presents new estimates of the magnitude and timing of capital flight from 40 sub-Saharan African countries and analyzes its determinants, including linkages to external borrowing. Our results confirm that sub-Saharan Africa is a net creditor to the rest of the world, in that the subcontinent’s private external assets exceed its public external liabilities: total capital flight amounted to $420 billion (in 2004 dollars), compared to the external debt of $227 billion. Econometric analysis indicates that for every dollar in external loans to Africa in this period, roughly 60 cents flowed back out as capital flight in the same year, a finding that suggests the existence of widespread “debt-fueled” capital flight. The results also show a debt-overhang effect, as increases in the debt stock spur additional capital flight in later years. In addition to policies for recovery of looted wealth and repatriation of externally held assets, we discuss the need for policies to differentiate between legitimate and “odious” debts, both to ease current burdens and to improve international financial governance in the future.

In the first chapter the thesis concentrates on the external indebtedness in general, on its definition, essence and the causes and consequences of high levels of external debt. In the second chapter it focuses on the actual problem of high external debt burden of the developing countries, its evolution and the progress and outcomes of the initiatives, which have been trying to reduce the undesirable levels of external debt of the developing world. In the last third chapter it studies the external debt specifically in Sub-Saharan Africa and and looks into the future of the region.

Over the past decade the non-oil developing countries’ external debt has shown a more than threefold increase, a trend that may be expected to continue in the foreseeable future. In response to the recipient countries’ changing needs, private lending, their principal source of credit, will have to take different forms involving the creation of new multilateral facilities designed to place a bigger pool of long-term funds at the developing countries’ disposal.

The foreign indebtedness of the Third World has been increasing rapidly over the past ten years. The volume of private and public borrowings expanded between the end of 1970 and the end of 1979 from $ 64 bn to $ 376 bn1. This development has quickened the interest in methods for an assessment of the external debt situation of developing countries. Interested parties—commercial banks, international organizations, etc., and the borrowers themselves—are looking for criteria by reference to which they can monitor foreign indebtedness and ascertain in good time whether and when the foreign debt of a country is in danger of reaching “critical” dimensions. What view should be taken of the various criteria?