Search

This paper uses a multiple discrete–continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model with perfect and imperfect substitutes to study residential energy demand. A non-linear utility function is employed within a Kuhn-Tucker multiple-discrete economic model of consumer demand, estimated on Italian expenditure data. The simulation algorithm measures demand elasticity with respect to price variations and the marginal effects of other covariates. Results show that household energy demand (space and water heating and transportation) is relatively inelastic with respect to prices (−0.55 and −0.67, respectively), meaning that pricing policies can induce a reduction in the demand for fuels less than proportional to the price variation. The model also allows to forecast the energy demand for space and water heating within a global warming scenario: an increase of 2 degrees Celsius would lead, for example, to a reduction in household energy consumption of 4.07%.

In the last decade, the economy of Zimbabwe underwent unprecedented stress and change. Starting in 2000, land reform began with farm invasions. This process eventually evolved into government-guided fast-track land reform. During this process, the international community imposed sanctions, and these factors, together with a severe drought, led to a reduction in availability of the main food staple. Inflationary pressures built and were exacerbated by foreign exchange shortages. The economy slowed due to debt overhang and dwindling investment caused in part by increased uncertainty. Several factors contributed to deterioration of the value of the Zimbabwean Dollar and by mid-2007, hyperinflation became rampant. The economic crisis began to abate in 2008 and political agreements signed in 2008 and implemented in 2009 led to further stabilization. As Zimbabwe moves forward, it is important to understand the conditions faced by the poor, and how they have changed during the period of hyperinflation. To do so, this paper uses 2001 and 2007/8 nationally representative household data and an asset index to avoid reliance on money-metric measures during the period of hyperinflation. An asset index is constructed using polychoric principal component analysis for both periods. A profile of well-being in 2001 is obtained using consumption expenditures, which helps calibrate asset index poverty lines. The 2001 data are used to generate small-area poverty estimates for both survey years and to validate the robustness of the findings from the asset index. The asset index holds its own when compared to standard consumption expenditure methods and small area estimation-based predictions, providing confidence in our findings. Urban asset poverty declined during 2001-2007, but extreme poverty increased. Rural asset poverty and extreme poverty worsened between 2001 and 2007. For the best-educated households, poverty increased significantly. Conditions of communal and resettlement workers deteriorated, reflecting worsening economic conditions in rural areas. Accepted version

Ethiopia’s remarkable socio-economic transformation over the last decade has been marked by: a reorientation of expenditure from recurrent to capital; a significant devolution of resources from Federal Government to Regions; and a clear prioritization of infrastructure spending, while protecting spending on education at four percent of GDP. The Government of Ethiopia has also leveraged external resources to boost spending in pro-poor sectors, particularly health and social protection. As a result, Ethiopia is home to the largest social safety net program in Africa, and has also achieved remarkable health outcomes using cost effective approaches. Recent investments have seen a significant build-up of capital stock, with capital spending at sector level pointing towards increased service capacity. The current public investment-led strategy requires to be complemented by increased budgetary provisions in operations and maintenance so that new investments translate into enhanced service coverage and delivery. As Ethiopia lays the foundation to become a middle income country, and the changing global environment implies declining external assistance, it is imperative that domestic taxation activity support this transition. The current tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peer countries, and the tax structure would benefit from increased contributions by direct tax sources. Therefore, there is an immediate need for advancing tax reforms and improve capacity and quality of tax administration. Broadening the tax bases, through review of exemptions, as well as review of tax rates might be venues to consider. Additional revenues will create the much-needed fiscal space to increase funding for operations and maintenance for service delivery, and support fiscal sustainability. As a follow-up to this Public Expenditure Review, the Government of Ethiopia has asked the World Bank to provide further analytical support, with a view to enhance domestic revenue mobilization through simpler and more efficient taxation, while retaining equity priorities in public finances.

This paper proposes a new measure of public expenditure force that policy makers and budget analysts should track in detail over time in routine fiscal monitoring. The paper suggests that adopting the measure will not only warn policy makers of possible impending fiscal pressures, but will help them to differentiate between those budgetary pressures that are temporary and those that may require reforms. The main utility of the expenditure force measure will be in country fiscal analysis. Measuring force across the entire budget allows practitioners to monitor and decompose the micro drivers of public spending pressure, watch out for rapidly expanding spending lines, and identify priorities for reform before these pressures lead to macro fiscal problems. Yet by its construct, spending force is internationally comparable, and independent of expenditure levels or spending types. This could allow global monitoring comparisons and global research into the drivers of public spending force across particular types of country characteristics and economic conditions. In time, and as more data become available, researchers can use the force measure to compare and contrast the dynamics of expenditure types across countries. For example the measure can be used to explore what gives some spending types an initial impulse; whether underlying factors cause different public spending categories to grow faster than average, or to accelerate over time; and what successful countries have done to manage rising force without damaging public services. Since force seems to be a decent predictor of fiscal episodes, it is suggested that “speed limits” for spending might be a feasible component of fiscal rules.

The objective of this report is to assess public financial management (PFM) systems existing at the province level with a particular focus on the health and education sectors, and to understand linkages existing between the institutional settings in these two sectors and PFM processes. By doing so, the report shows the direct impact of poor PFM on service delivery in health and education. Since these two sectors have significant effects on the bottom 40 percent of the population, this will help Argentina’s subnational governments allocate and use public resources more efficiently, and with greater accountability for their expenditure.

Financing the Frontline updates the expenditure analysis carried out in Below the Glass Floor (2013) and tests whether the spending patterns emerging in 2009 and 2010 in Papua New Guinea have been sustained or improved in 2011 and 2012. The review also supports a better understanding of the issues that confront frontline service delivery — such as the ambiguity of roles and responsibilities in some rural health functions — and proposes next steps. Concurrently, the National Department of Health performance information on facilities (from the National Health Information System) has been reviewed. The integration of the expenditure analysis, the NHIS performance information and the findings from the Promoting Effective Public Expenditure facility surveys will provide a rich source of information to help sharpen understanding and shape solutions.

Consumption of food away from home is rapidly growing across the developing world. Surprisingly, the majority of household surveys around the world haven not kept up with its pace and still collect limited information on it. The implications for poverty and inequality measurement are far from clear, and the direction of the impact cannot be established a priori, since consumption of food away from home affects both food consumption and the poverty line. This paper exploits rich data on food away from home collected as part of the National Household Survey in Peru, shedding light to the extent to which welfare measures differ depending on whether they properly account for food away from home. Peru is a relevant context, with the average Peruvian household spending 28 percent of their food budget on food away from home by 2010. The analysis indicates that failure to account for the consumption of food away from home has important implications for poverty and inequality measures as well as the understanding of who the poor are. First, accounting for food away from home results in extreme poverty rates that are 18 percent higher and moderate poverty rates that are 16 percent lower. These results are also consistent, in fact more pronounced, with poverty gap and severity measures. Second, consumption inequality measured by the Gini coefficient decreases by 1.3 points when food away from home is included, a significant reduction. Finally, inclusion of food away from home results in a reclassification of households from poor to non-poor status and vice versa: 20 percent of the poor are different when the analysis includes consumption of food away from home. This effect is large enough that a standard poverty profile analysis results in significant differences between the poverty classification based on whether food away from home is included or not. The differences cover many dimensions, including demographics, education, and labor market characteristics. Taken together, the results indicate that a serious rethinking of how to deal with the consumption of food away from home in measuring well-being is urgently needed to properly estimate and understand poverty around the world.

This South African Agricultural Public Expenditure Review (AgPer) is one of a series of similar studies undertaken in several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa under the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) of the African Union’s (AU) New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) which encourages governments and development partners (DPs) to target public expenditure on the agriculture sector as the most effective way of stimulating growth. The overall purpose of the budget tracking and public expenditure review is to provide recommendations to address budgetary planning, budget execution, and accountability in the agricultural sector, the creation of a reliable data base, and more effective intra- and inter-sectoral coordination. It is also aimed at stimulating increased resource allocations and to enhance the harmonization and alignment of resources around national and provincial priorities in the agricultural sector. The report aims to produce the following outputs: foundation data set for understanding reflecting the COFOG and South African nomenclature in budgeting; synthesis of the level, composition and quality of budget; and recommendations for enhancement of the budget tracking process.

Over the review period covered by this report (2003-2012), the budget allocated to agriculture increased noticeably more than the sector’s contribution to GDP. This reflects a notable effort by the Chad authorities to increase the budget to boost this sector’s development in recent years. In this proactive context, Chad signed its CAADP compact in December 2013 to continue supporting agriculture’s revival. The CAADP is being implemented in Chad even as the terms of the National Rural Sector Investment Program (PNISR, 2014-2020) are being finalized. Within the context of the CAADP, the Government of Chad (GOC) wished to undertake a review of public agriculture expenditures to learn from past budgetary implementation in this sector with a view to improving future program performance. Following a request by the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MoAI), the NEPAD planning and coordination agency gave Chad it’s backing for this review. This process was undertaken by the Program for Strengthening National Comprehensive Agricultural Public Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa, co-financed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the CAADP Multi-Donor Trust Fund. This program, implemented by the World Bank, aims to improve the impact of the still-limited public resources available to governments in Sub-Saharan Africa to foster agricultural development and reduce poverty in rural areas, where most of the poor in these countries, notably Chad, live. This study follows and builds upon a number of similar studies conducted in recent years on public expenditure management, in particular in Chad the Action Plan for the Modernization of Public Finances (PAMFIP). However, these studies have focused on budget management as a whole, and none to date has looked at the agricultural sector specifically.

The report contains eight chapters. Chapter one leads off with the main macroeconomic and fiscal determinants to understand the general health financing situation in DRC. Its sections one and two provide a brief overview of the country’s macroeconomic and fiscal environment. Section three sheds new light on decentralization, a core health issue, and focuses on the fiscal implications of decentralization. Section 4 offers a brief analysis of the management of public finance, a key element for the effectiveness and quality of expenditure, especially in health. Chapter two starts with a brief overview of the main objectives and analyzes its organization and governance, with a focus on health care delivery. Chapter three discusses the performance of the main health system’s outputs and outcomes. Section one analyzes major changes in health outcomes based on different household surveys. Section two addresses service coverage with a focus on mother and child services. Section three explores service quality issues. In a detailed analysis of health financing sources, Chapter four looks at changes in public, external, and private sources over 2008–2013 (section one). Section two analyzes the adequacy of government funding for health financing needs, and assesses the prospects for expanding fiscal space for health. Chapter five examines government funds mobilized for health, both allocated in the budget and executed (or actuals). Government resources for health are taken to mean all domestic financing sources allocated to the Ministry of Public Health and other health entities. Section one examines changes in the health budget envelope over 2007–2013, while section two focuses on actual spending. Section three analyzes government executed expenditure by nature and section four reviews trends and types of personnel expenditure, the largest share of government health expenditure. Chapter six focuses on health expenditure performance in the light of three main parameters: financial protection; equity; and efficiency. Section one analyzes financial protection using standard indicators (share of out-of-pocket payments, catastrophic expenditure, and impoverishing expenditure). Section two scrutinizes health outcomes and service use disparities and inequalities based on income, gender, and place of residence. The last section presents an overview of the efficiency of health expenditure in DRC, primarily in comparison to its peer countries. Chapter seven analyzes health financing from the point of view of the provinces, the new ‘entitled’ authorities for the health sector, drawing on a survey of financial and fiscal data from six provinces. Section one presents an overview of health financing flows after decentralization. Section two focuses on financing sources for the health sector at the provincial level, examining provincial government funds, external assistance, and central government transfers. The chapter ends with an analysis of the volume and type of decentralized government health expenditure. The report concludes in a brief chapter eight with a series of recommendations to improve short- and medium-term health sector financing and performance.

Bhutan is situated between the Tibetan Plateau in the North and Indian plains in the south. The development philosophy in Bhutan is embedded in the concept of Gross National Happiness (GNH) that, as a public policy strategy, seeks to address a more meaningful purpose of development that goes beyond the fulfillment of material satisfaction. The concept is grounded in the four pillars of development; socio-economic, environment, culture, and good governance. Bhutan s record on growth and development has made it a top performer in the South Asian region. The average annual growth rate of GDP over 1980-2010 in country was more than 7.6 percent, one of the highest in the South Asian sub-continent (SAS). Bhutan, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of about US$2,000, is now classified as a lower-middle income country. However, one of the most notable features about Bhutan s macro economy is its lack of diversification, dependence on and exposure to external developments, and the high levels of year-to-year volatility in its economic growth. Public Expenditure Review (PER) begins with an overview of the macro-economic context (chapter two) and public sector management (chapter three) in Bhutan. This is followed by an analytical summary of achievements to date in the health and education sectors (chapters four and five). The PER concludes (chapter six) with policy options and recommendations which are intended to spur discussion and analysis among policy-makers in Bhutan as they look into different possibilities to increase fiscal space in domestic resources while enhancing the quality of expenditures and improving outcomes in the health and education systems.

The rural sector, defined here as the economic sector that falls under the scope of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water (MAH), the Ministry of Animal Resources (MRA), and the Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development (MEDD), is one of the pillars of the Burkina Faso economy. Although its contribution to GDP has decreased in recent times from 35 percent in 1999 to 30 percent in 2011 due to the development of the other sectors of the economy, agricultural activity still employs approximately 86 percent of Burkina Faso s labor force and is the main source of income for poorer populations. Consequently, the rural sector is among the primary beneficiaries of public expenditures by the Burkina Faso government and constitutes one of the pillars of the Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Sustainable Development (SCADD) adopted in 2010. The goals of this agriculture public expenditure review in Burkina Faso are as follows: draw lessons from the past in terms of budget execution in the agricultural sector in order to promote the design and implementation of public expenditure programs that are more efficient and more equitable and have a greater impact; initiate the implementation of the databases and methodology required to conduct similar reviews regularly and thus contribute to the institutionalization of the process; and contribute to establishing the conditions for increased support for the sector while encouraging the harmonization and alignment of support with respect for national strategies.

International audience; Governments around the world have embraced trade liberalisation as a means of enhancing efficiency to realise economic growth and alleviate poverty. Likewise, the Mexican government implemented neoliberal policy reforms, the NAFTA in particular, to stimulate sustainable development. Using the Mexican maize sector as illustration, this paper describes the adaptation process of smallholders to market changes shaped by these reforms. Going beyond the aggregated level, we have investigated smallholders' livelihood strategies. Contrary to what economic models estimated, our data suggests that farmers intensified the cultivation of maize rather than switch to sectors in which Mexico has a comparative advantage.

These economic updates analyze the trends and constraints in Cameroon's economic development. Each issue, produced bi-annually, provides an update of recent economic developments as well as a special focus on a selected topical issue. The economic updates aim to share knowledge and stimulate debate among those interested in improving the economic management of Cameroon and unleashing its enormous potential. The notes thereby offer another voice on economic issues in Cameroon, and an additional platform for engagement, learning and change. The latest information confirms the expected recovery in economic activity in Cameroon. The upturn in the global economy and measures taken by the authorities to stimulate domestic production, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010 is estimated to have reached 3.2 percent (compared to 2 percent in 2009). As expected, most of this recovery was driven by the tertiary sector, which accounted for more than half of the estimated growth. The sector benefitted from a pick-up in timber-related transport and continued strong activities in mobile telephony stemming from a greater use of fiber optic, promotional campaigns during the Soccer World Cup, and the roll-out of new products. The recovery in the primary sector, with an estimated growth rate of about 4 percent in 2010, was led by a strong expansion in the timber sector, as well as in food crops. The non-oil secondary sector, meanwhile, is also estimated to have grown by about 4 percent, driven by a continued pick-up in construction activities and a rebound in food processing. Cameroon is a relatively small and mature oil producer, where oil production is declining. Depleting reserves, aging equipment, and more recently postponements of some development projects and investments because of the financial crisis explain this profile. The contribution of this sector to GDP growth has been mostly negative in recent years and oil production is estimated to have contracted by a further 12 percent in 2010 (to 23.2 million barrels).

The Lao PDR has been a one-party, socialist state since the overthrow of the monarchy by the communist Pathet Lao in 1975, which was preceded by a long period of civil and regional strife. After a decade of relative isolation and close military cooperation with Vietnam, the new economic mechanism, introduced in 1986, ushered in an era of market-based reforms, which has continued to the present day. Lao PDR is one of the poorest countries in East Asia, with a 2006 per capita income of US$ 500. In 2004, 71 percent of its population of 5.7 million lived on less than US$ 2/day and 23 percent on less than US$ 1/day. However Lao PDR has grown rapidly since the inauguration of reforms two decades ago. During the 1990s growth averaged 6 percent per annum despite severe imbalances during the Asian crisis. Following successful stabilization, growth continued to average close to 6 percent during 2001-2004, accelerating in 2005-2007 to over 7 percent. Inflation remained well below 10 percent since 2005. Although Lao PDR qualifies for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the Government has chosen to maintain normal creditor relations. The latest debt sustainability analysis confirms that, while risk of debt distress is high, medium term debt service is manageable, contingent on continued reform and prudent fiscal management. Foreign direct investment has almost quadrupled between 2004 and 2007, and exceeds US$ 800 million annually, mostly in hydropower and mining. Growth in Lao PDR has been pro-poor. Based on the national poverty line, the poverty headcount has fallen from almost half to one-third of the population during the decade ending in 2002-2003. The country's performance on other elements of poverty reduction as summarized in the millennium development goals is mixed.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is an extremely complex, multidisciplinary and skill intensive endeavor. Government-wide M&E is even more so because it requires detailed knowledge across and within sectors, as well as of interactions among planning, budgeting, and implementation functions in the public sector. The situation is complicated even further when the machinery of government is decentralized, with powers and functions distributed across three spheres of government. This paper outlines the process of implementing a government-wide monitoring and evaluation (GWM&E) system in South Africa. The first section sketches the context that created the impetus for establishing such a system. This context is clearly shaping the evolution of the system and influencing its longer-term sustainability. The second section outlines the various stages of conceptualizing and implementing the GWM&E system, which is currently very much a 'work in progress.' The third section reviews international experiences for lessons learned, which may also be germane to the South African context, noting similarities and differences in approach. Some of the critical implementation factors relate to the role of political leadership and championing of M&E, incentives for promoting usage of M&E findings, dealing with information and data constraints, capacity building, "ownership" of the M&E system by line ministries and other agencies, and managing the challenges of change. The fourth section examines a range of challenges and difficulties encountered in South Africa. The final section reflects on lessons distilled from the South African experience to date.

This study examines Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS) and Quantitative Service Delivery Survey (QSDS) carried out in Africa with the objective of assessing their approaches, main findings, and contributions. Section 2 investigates the context, motivations, and objectives of PETS and QSDS that have been carried out in Sub-Saharan Africa. Section 3 examines the institutional arrangements for resource allocation and service delivery in social sectors. Section 4 presents some of the main findings of tracking surveys. Section 5 analyzes methodological approaches used in previous tracking surveys in order to identify factors that could explain the difference in past surveys' success, and identify potential methodological harmonization. Section 6 presents a series of good practice principles that arise from past experience, and discusses how they could be implemented. Section 7 proposes potential future surveys and endeavors.

Armenia gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and inherited a traditional Soviet- style command economy. After a period of hyperinflation and economic contractions, progress on basic reforms led to greater macroeconomic stability. The reform effort strengthened after 2000, aided by return flows of investment from the diaspora. Recognized for its prudent fiscal management and improved business environment, Armenia received a Rehabilitation Credit (RC) from the World Bank in 1995 and a series of five Structural Adjustment Credits(SACs) from 1996-2003 to maintain stability, accelerate growth, and sustain reform. The PRSC program in Armenia centered on four main themes that supported Armenia's poverty- reduction objectives: i) consolidating macroeconomic discipline and strengthening governance;ii) sharpening competition and entrenching property rights; iii) mitigating social and environmental risks; and iv) modernizing the rural economy. The PRSC also identified good governance and reduction of corruption as essential to achieving pro-poor growth. Furthermore, reforms implemented under the PRSC were intended to make the social sectors more efficient, raise the quality of services, and increase access for the poor.

The overall objective of the study is to identify potential causes to the rapid increase in regional government surpluses. It will be shown that regional government surpluses have rapidly increased because of a confluence of three factors: (i) higher than expected revenue, (ii) lower than expected expenditure, and (iii) limited investments in financial assets. The study will identify potential causes for each factor by analyzing differences in actual and budgeted amounts of revenue. This report was presented to representatives of the Ministry of Finance and Decentralization Support Facility (DSF) in a meeting held on 30 May 2008. Comments and corrections of the attendants are reflected in this version of the report.

This paper provides background for the Government of Indonesia as it considers if and how to introduce more robust local government performance incentives into the intergovernmental fiscal framework. The next section briefly examines the forces that have driven the recent national wave of interest in improving local government performance. This is followed by a review of the relatively limited set of local government performance incentives currently in force in Indonesia. The fourth section provides a conceptual overview of how to think about the possible expansion of local government incentive programs, outlining the potential role(s) of such programs in general and the key issues involved in designing and implementing them. The fifth section tentatively considers a number of options for additional local government incentives in Indonesia that the central government may wish to consider pursuing. The paper concludes with an outline of next steps for moving forward with the possible development of more purposeful and meaningful performance incentives in Indonesia's intergovernmental fiscal framework.

This paper evaluates the Vaso de Leche (VL) feeding program in Peru. We pose the question that if a community-based multistage targeting scheme such as that of the VL program is progressive, is it possible that the program can achieve its nutritional objectives? We address this by linking VL public expenditure data with household survey data to assess the targeting, and then to model the determinants of nutritional outcomes of children to see if VL program interventions have an impact on nutrition. We confirm that the VL program is well targeted to poor households and to those with low nutritional status. While the bulk of the coverage of the poor is attributed to targeting of poor districts, the degree to which the poor receive larger in-kind transfers is attributed to intradistrict targeting. The impact of these food subsidies beyond their value as income transfers is limited, however, by the degree to which the commodity transfers are inframarginal. We find that transfers of milk and milk substitutes from the VL program are inframarginal for approximately half of the households that receive them. Thus, it is not entirely surprising that we fail to find econometric evidence of the nutritional objectives of the VL program being achieved. In models of child standardized heights, we find no impact of the VL program expenditures on the nutritional outcomes of young children - the group to whom the program is targeted.

Counting the world's poor: problems and possible solutions; by Angus Deaton. Comments on "counting the world's poor"; by Martin Ravallion, and T. N. Srinivasan. Ecology, history, and development : a perspective from rural Southeast Asia; by Yujiro Hayami. Productivity growth and sustainability in post-green revolution agriculture: the case of the Indian and Pakistan Punjab; by Rinku Murgai, Mubarik Ali, and Derek Byerlee. The politics of Russian enterprise reform: insiders, local governments, and the obstacles to restructuring; by Raj M. Desai and Itzhak Goldberg.

The authors assess the extent to which Vietnam's rapid economic growth in the 1990s was accompanied by reductions in poverty. They also investigate factors that contribute to certain households benefiting more than others. Using information from two household surveys, the Vietnam Living Standards Surveys (VNLSS) for 1992-93 and 1997-98, they show that Vietnam's gains in poverty reduction were striking during this period, and that the country's impressive growth has been fairly broad-based. After discussing descriptive statistics for both years, the authors examine factors contributing to poverty reduction using both simple decomposition analysis, and a multinomial logit model. The results show that: 1) returns to education increased significantly during this period, particularly for higher levels of education. 2) Location significantly affected a households probability of escaping poverty during this period. Urban households enjoyed a greater reduction in poverty than did rural households, and households residing in the Red River Delta, and the southeast were also better able to take advantage of new opportunities. 3) White-collar households benefited most, and agricultural laborers the least. However, Vietnam cannot afford to be complacent, as nearly half its rural population lives below the poverty line, poverty rates among ethnic minorities remain very high, and natural calamities are a serious impediment to poverty reduction.