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Spatial mobility is a distinctive feature of human history and has important repercussions in many aspects of societies. Spatial mobility has always been a subject of interest in many disciplines, even if only mobility observable from traditional sources, namely migration (internal and international) and more recently commuting, is generally studied. However, it is the other forms of mobility, that is, the temporary forms of mobility, that most interest today's societies and, thanks to new data sources, can now be observed and measured. This contribution provides an empirical and data-driven reflection on human mobility during the COVID pandemic crisis. The paper has two main aims: (a) to develop a new index for measuring the attrition in mobility due to the restrictions adopted by governments in order to contain the spread of COVID-19. The robustness of the proposed index is checked by comparing it with the Oxford Stringency Index. The second goal is (b) to test if and how digital footprints (Google data in our case) can be used to measure human mobility. The study considers Italy and all the other European countries. The results show, on the one hand, that the Mobility Restriction Index (MRI) works quite well and, on the other, the sensitivity, in the short term, of human mobility to exogenous shocks and intervention policies; however, the results also show an inner tendency, in the middle term, to return to previous behaviours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it is well-established that exogenous shocks can trigger policy changes, political elites have often been depicted as the initiators of this process. This paper adopts an elite sociology perspective, extending beyond the exclusive focus on political elites, to uncover the pathway through which critical junctures foster policy changes. It employs a case study of the economic crises in Turkey spanning from 1999 to 2001 as an illustrative example. During this period, a significant shift occurred, moving from traditional statist economic policies to widespread neoliberal reforms. Our analysis reveals that this policy shift was not solely influenced by external factors, but facilitated by an intricate process of elite circulation within the economic bureaucracy. This process, which began in the 1980s and gained momentum in the 2000s, coincided with an influx of bureaucratic elites aligned with neoliberal principles and played a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of policy changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To provide hospitality managers with an effective way to respond to exogenous shocks, this study proposes a quantitative opportunity score algorithm based on the primary effect of psychology and the affect-as-information theory. The proposed algorithm can assist managers in prioritizing service improvements by calculating the importance and performance of restaurant service attributes. Specifically, using the COVID-19 pandemic as an example, this study explores shifts in the importance and performance of restaurant service attributes under different degrees of restrictions based on online reviews. The results of this study show that whether or not restaurants take measures to respond to the pandemic and the different degrees of restrictions have an impact on the importance and performance of service attributes, which means that managers develop eventual service improvement strategies differently. This study not only provides insights and management recommendations for hospitality managers to deal with the post-epidemic but also provides methodological support for hospitality managers to further respond to other exogenous shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The aim of the article is to analyze the responses of selected central banks to macroeconomic shocks occurring between 2019 and 2023. The analysis focuses on the use of benchmark interest rates by the central banks of seven countries/groups of countries: Poland, the Eurozone, the USA, Japan, China, Brazil, and India in response to rising inflation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. Design/methodology/approach: The article uses desk research, referencing data published by the central banks of selected countries regarding monetary policy conducted between 2019 and 2023. To analyze the impact of inflation rates and other economic indicators, such as unemployment rates, Lombard rates, deposit rates on benchmark interest rates levels during the study period, a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model was applied. This technique was chosen to effectively control for the heterogeneity of unobserved units given the dynamic nature of the dependent variables. Findings: The article confirms the predictability and caution in the approach to monetary policy, which is crucial for economic stability. The results of the econometric model show strong inertia in the benchmark interest rate, which is typical for the cautious and wellconsidered decisions of central banks. Originality/value: The article brings a new perspective to the analysis of monetary policy responses to exogenous shocks in the context of different economies. The results are relevant to both economic theorists and monetary policy practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of the present study is to identify prerequisites for business development in the conditions of polycrisis in the EU member states of South-Eastern Europe. In the context of digital transformation and the low-carbon transition, this can have an impact on changing their economic policy.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to show how critical moments in recent world history – the Covid-19 pandemic, the fourth industrial revolution, and migration crises – have affected employment in social enterprises and, more broadly, in the third sector. Design/methodology/approach: Analyses of international reports of global agencies, analysis of international studies on labour markets, analyses of situation of social enterprises from Poland in the perspective of historical institutionalism. Findings: Precariousness in the labour market will be one of the most critical challenges of modern times. Informal jobs will grow at the same rate as formal employment as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Although recent estimates suggest a return to informal employment for both women and men, the most severe effects of the pandemic will play out along pre-existing lines of inequality and marginality, causing the most severe consequences for those who were already most vulnerable to them. Social implications: In the biggest risk of job insecurity are the social groups of less developed economies, where the economic downturn resulting from the pandemic is forcing a shift in corporate strategies toward cost-cutting and the search for labor savings. The global challenges of today's world mean that further research on the impact of exogenous shocks on job insecurity should be conducted. Originality/value: Analysis of modern exogenous shocks in perspective of historical institutionalism (important for scientific theory with applied aspects for social and economic practice). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brexit, the Covid Pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War represent the latest three major global events that have demonstrated that financial contagion is a phenomenon that needs careful study because its global effects can cause unprecedented shocks to regional and global financial markets. The main reason is related to the interconnectedness of these markets, the interdependence between countries, and the connections created over decades between national and international financial institutions. In this paper, we aim to analyze, using the Diebold-Yilmaz (DY) methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz in 2014, the effects of financial contagion in the three major crises Brexit, Covid and the Russia-Ukraine war (first year). Financial contagion is primarily a fear-driven phenomenon. Financial network connectivity has the potential to change due to investors’ fear during events that are disturbing and cause exogenous turbulence. We use the network analysis established by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to study how SCDS (Credit Default Sovereign Markets) markets changed their interconnectedness around exogenous shocks in the last decade (Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine).

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a shock to the EU gas market, as Russian gas supply dwindled and prices spiked. Previous exogenous shocks to the gas market resulted in policy reforms aimed at diversification and reducing dependency on Russian gas. However, their effectiveness was reduced. This study seeks to examine the policy changes under REPowerEU in light of gas security post-invasion. To examine this, three indicators – import dependency, diversification, and gas intensity – are used and examined the REPowerEU policy elements – reduced Russian gas, increased renewables and energy efficiency targets, gas storage requirements, demand reduction and a joint purchasing mechanism. This preliminary analysis highlights similarities in approaches, but also find that the severity of the crisis contributed to more support. The early effectiveness of the policy reforms is questioned, as change appear driven by other factors, such as decisions made by Russia and high gas prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic-induced systemic shocks cause a change in the dynamics of monetary policy spillovers among developed economies. Results from our analysis under the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model indicate that: (i) variations in monetary policy actions are explained by monetary policy spillovers; (ii) shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic rocketed monetary policy spillovers; (iii) the Euro area and the US chiefly propagate monetary policy shocks to their counterpart developed economies; and (iv) New Zealand and Japan endure the highest monetary policy shocks. Our results evidence the need for synchronized monetary policy actions during systemic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates users' reactions to a massive and highly sensitive data breach via an array of causal inference methodologies. As the quantity and value of data increase, so do the severity of data breaches and customer privacy invasions. Although firms typically publicize their post hoc protective actions, little is known about the aftereffects of major breaches on users' behaviors; do they alter their interactions with the firm, continue "business as usual," or do something more subtle? We explore these questions in the context of a severe data breach to a matchmaking website for those seeking an (extramarital) affair. A challenge to measuring "treatment effects" for a massive and highly publicized breach is the lack of an obvious control group. To resolve this problem, we propose Temporal Causal Inference (TCI); each group of users who joined during a given time window is matched with an appropriate (control) group of users who had joined prior to it, helping to account for "usage trajectories" in both individual and temporal site behavior. Following the creation of the control groups, we adapt Causal Forests (Athey et al. 2019) into Temporal Causal Forests (TCF). TCF allows for insights regarding both average and individual-level treatment (data breach) effects as well as both demographic and usage-based covariates that align with them. Our analyses reveal a decrease in the probability of searching and messaging on the website and a notable increase in the probability of deleting photos, the primary avenue for avoiding further personal identification. Moreover, these effects are broadly robust to a variety of causal inference methodologies, both with and without TCI or Causal Forests. Intriguingly, these initially negative reaction(s) did not persist; by the third week after the announcement, there were hints of "life returns to normal." Despite the specificity of the setting, our analysis suggests both managerial and policy imperatives to help protect customers' privacy. History: Avi Goldfarb and Olivier Toubia served as the senior editor for this article. Supplemental Material: The e-companion and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2019.0208. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an era of financial globalization, cross-border capital flows hugely affect a country's economic conditions, but their cyclical properties remain controversial. This paper takes terrorist attacks as exogenous shocks to study whether financial openness helps an economy recover from a crisis through inducing capital inflows, or amplifies the adverse effects by allowing for capital flight. With a panel dataset from 1990 to 2016, we show that cross-border capital flows are largely pro-cyclical, especially for non-OECD countries. A higher level of financial openness is associated with net capital outflows in response to terrorist incidents, mainly due to the decrease of the aggregate capital inflows by foreign investors. This mechanism also applies to disaggregate cross-border capital flows such as FDI, portfolio investment and debt investment. Furthermore, there is no sign that exchange rate adjustment insulates non-OECD countries from net capital outflows following a terrorist attack. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines how the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 influenced the depreciation disclosure practice adopted by Japanese companies in the years that followed. Prior to World War II, corporate accounting behaviour varied widely in Japan, as there were few substantive rules regulating the contents of financial statements. Assessing how a large-scale extrinsic shock such as a major earthquake affects and shapes corporate accounting practices in an unregulated disclosure environment such as this would seem important to understand the intrinsic impact of exogenous shocks. By statistically analysing the contents of 547 financial statements issued by 51 machinery, electrical and transportation equipment manufacturers during the six years from 1921 to 1926, this study shows that the substantial damage inflicted by the Great Kanto Earthquake discouraged companies from disclosing depreciation expenses by reducing or failing to recognise them at all and rendering them less important in their financial statements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world's food supply is becoming increasingly vulnerable because of rising political and climatic crises. To identify food supply vulnerabilities at an early stage, this paper proposes a multifactorial and standardized import vulnerability index (IVI). The IVI encompasses (i) an exporter vulnerability index (EVI) consisting of four exporter-specific factors and (ii) a product vulnerability index (PVI) consisting of three product-specific factors. We applied a robust principal component analysis to derive weights to combine these individual factors into a standardized IVI. The IVI was applied to food import-dependent Switzerland from 2014 to 2019 as an empirical case study. The results showed that a large share of Swiss food imports mainly originated from neighboring countries, indicating a very low to moderate EVI. Regarding the PVI, only product groups that were imported from a small number of countries (e.g., oilseeds) or that showed a low self-sufficiency ratio (e.g., coffee) or high price volatility (e.g., meat) exhibited a high value. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the IVI showed neither large fluctuations nor a decreasing or increasing trend. With regular updates, the proposed indicator can become a valuable monitoring tool for food supply security.

The study assesses the macroeconomic fundamentals of ASEAN+3+3 countries in light of exogenous shocks from the U.S. and Chinese exchange rates. The research also delves into the impacts of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) on selected macroeconomic variables. The exogenous shocks/crises cause deterioration in the exchange rate and, via trade and financial channels, fetch immediate fluctuations in the foreign demand for domestic goods, ultimately resulting in the volatility of output, interest rate and prices. The findings reveal that these shocks have a profound impact on macroeconomic fundamentals, but the repercussions of U.S. shocks wane over time for a majority of the countries. Intriguingly, in the aftermath of the AFC and GFC, the ramifications of the Chinese economy intensified across various metrics and nations. In a nutshell, the study signifies that ASEAN+3+3 countries under an open economy framework are sensitive to the changes in the exchange rate of major international currencies, i.e., the U.S. dollar and Yuan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crisis management can be essential in enhancing the working of state-owned enterprises. In global economic conditions, the operation of enterprises is developed in an insecure environment. The management of the crisis can be considered as a specific method of the stateowned enterprises in order to prevent and dominate proceedings that may endanger or impede the further existence of the enterprises. By systematizing theoretical issues and providing empirical evidence, the paper clarifies the influence of factors affecting crisis management at state-owned enterprises in the context of exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper uses the Exploratory Factor Analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique to identify the influence of the factors on crisis management in state-owned enterprises with 259 civil servants. The findings show that the policy dimension is the most important factor that contributes 40% toward the overall crisis management, followed by the leadership traits and skills dimension (23%). Besides, this study proposes some recommendations to enhance the crisis management of state-owned enterprises in the context of exogenous shocks in Vietnam. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the impact of exogenous shocks on nonprofit operations by assessing the effect of 9/11 on donations to Muslim American nonprofits. The first narrative promoted by civil rights groups and some Islamic charities argues that donations to Islamic charities have declined. Individuals are afraid of getting indicted by law enforcement agencies for advertently or inadvertently funding an organization that supports terrorism. The second narrative is that donations to Islamic charities have increased post-9/11 as donors push back against Islamophobia by supporting Muslim nonprofits. I systematically assess these narratives using difference-in-difference (DiD) methodology and find that 9/11 had no significant impact on overall contributions to Islamic charities. Although donations to internationally focused Islamic charities declined in the year following 9/11, when compared with domestic-focused Islamic charities, they also recovered shortly after that. Moreover, they did not reduce significantly when compared with non-Islamic internationally focused organizations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article is a study of the impact of macroeconomic health shocks in their role as business cycle fluctuation factors. They appear in the form of exogenous shocks for the economic system, influencing macroeconomic activity. The analysis contributes to the development of a better understanding of those types of shock in two aspects. The first aspect is in relation to a clearer delineation of their idiosyncrasies. The second aspect is in regard to the study of their contemporary dimensions. In order to do that, a comparative analysis of their influence on business cycle dynamics is conducted in two directions. The first one compares the exogenous health factors in the last two decades. The epidemics of SARS-CoV-1, H5N1, H7N9, and EVD are included, as well as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The study examines each of them, evaluating how much their characteristics comply with the criteria defining an exogenous macroeconomic shock. The second direction realizes a comparative analysis in a longer historical context, focusing on the manifestation of the Spanish flu during the 1918-1920 period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of our study was to investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukraine (RU) war on the return volatility and value of the Tunisian Stock Exchange proxied by TUNINDEX. We applied GARCH (1,1) to assess the impact on the index return volatility, using daily observations from January 2019 to December 2022, and a multiple linear regression to determine the effect on the index value, based on monthly observations for January 2018 to December 2022. GARCH output revealed that both exogenous shocks led to higher stock market return volatility. The regression results disclosed statistically significant though opposite impacts on the index price. The pandemic exerted a positive, though extremely mild impact on the Index value, while the war had a negative effect on its performance. As for the control variables, both inflation rate and industrial production index exhibited positive effects on the TUNINDEX values, while trade balance had a negative impact. GDP growth rate and interest rate however, showed no significant influence on the index performance during the study period. We faced some difficulty accessing data, in addition to the scarcity of data on other potentially relevant factors, along with a short study period. Incorporating new variables i.e. mortality rates, unemployment due to the lockdown, travel bans effect, trade dependence with Ukraine and Russia, and using Time-Varying Vector Auto Regressive model may add additional value to our work. The paper contributes to the literature on external shocks impacts on stock markets, specifically on the Tunisian stock exchange. In addition, it offers insights on the potential expected economic effects of unpredicted events, and may help identify appropriate strategies to mitigate their dramatic effects. Finally, this research presents the first investigation on the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukraine on the Tunisian stock exchange by probing into the impact on both volatility and performance of the market's index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to investigate how the industrial sector in Ceara responds to shocks that occur in important macroeconomic variables and to examine a possible long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables and industrial output. For this, a set of monthly data was used, between January 2002 and December 2019, of the variables Oil Prices, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Industrial Production. The methodological strategy focused on the analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables and on the estimation of an impulse response function and variance decomposition, through a modeling with vectors autoregressive VAR/VEC. As a result, it was possible to identify the existence of a long-term relationship between the industrial product and the system variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Тhe mаin rеаsоn for the еxchаnge rate sеnsitivity is the dоubts in its crеdibility rеlаtеd to the trаde, wеаknesses in the finаnciаl sеctоr, еxternаl shоcks, pоlitical errоrs, cоuntry risk, еtc. Тhis paper discuss about potential currency crisis in the Republic of N. Macedonia for the period before pandemic and give the answer to what kind of lessons should we take into account regarding past period which is measured in the research. The paper presents the results of a possible crisis scenario in N. Macedonia and give statistical analysis of the relationship of the indicators of a currency crisis, examining two questions - are disorders in Macedonia that can cause a currency crisis and which generation currency crises would be the closest for Macedonia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies exogenous shocks to investigate the impact of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on farmers' poverty vulnerability in China. We find that farmers in highly developed DFI areas are less vulnerable to the poverty trap. The result is robust to various checks, including propensity score matching and difference‐in‐differences method and the instrumental variable approach. Moreover, we find that income diversification is the possible economic channel through which DFI affects farmers' poverty vulnerability. Further analyses show that DFI has a "targeting" effect on those who are poor and vulnerable, and a synergistic effect by working with medical insurance and informal finance in terms of reducing farmers' poverty vulnerability. Our research findings provide new theoretical insights and useful guidance in enhancing financial inclusiveness and sustainable development in the post‐COVID‐19 era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the determinants of the partisan composition of cabinets formed in the last twenty years in Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Assuming that coalition formation processes take place in three-dimensional political spaces, we assess the impact of the ideological heterogeneity of potential coalitions on economic, EU-related, and socio-cultural issues on the chances that a combination of parties finally forms a cabinet. We find that – in line with the intensified role exerted by EU institutions in domestic affairs – parties were more likely to form a coalition government with those actors who share similar positions on an economic and an EU integration dimension. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current study examine the extent to which the previous financial crisis affected the level of individual’s approval with government policies in specific three areas: the economy, health and education during this pandemic situation of COVID-19. Data from the European social survey including 14 countries, approximately 195000 observations. Follow up to time series regression, respondents satisfaction level reduce with government economy policy after the crisis, while satisfaction increase for health and education policies. Separate regression for each country confirmed a reliable outline of behavior transpires, although short-range effect on satisfaction was negative and longstanding effect on satisfaction was positive reported. The modification of short-term effect into negative may be due to the effective government policies to overcome the adverse effects of crisis. The pandemic situation of COVID-19 has forced the government to revise the economic, health and educational policies before implantation. Results declared that current crises in third sector also have past influences of financial crisis as well as COVID-19 impact was also recorded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of speculators' behavior is very important in explaining the phenomena of the Iranian housing market. Many of the unfavorable phenomena that occur in this market are the results of speculative activity in the housing market. Speculators enter the market at the beginning of the boom period and earn maximum profit of price increases, and as signs of recession appear, they quickly exit the market and invest in parallel markets such as banks, stocks, exchange and gold, which leads to fluctuations in housing prices. In this study, following the Roehner model and using the time varying parameter ordinary least squares method (TVP-OLS), the speculation index in the housing market during the period 1991 to 2020 was estimated, and then the impact of different shocks to stock market, exchange market, gold market, interest rates and housing tax on speculation in the housing market was investigated, and for estimating the effects of these shocks, the Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) method was used. The results show that during the period under study, on average, 20% of the increase in housing prices was related to speculation, with the highest growth in 1997 at 320% and the lowest growth in 2005 at -23%. According to the results of the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MSVAR), speculation in the housing market had the highest response to the exchange and gold markets, and interest rates and the least response to the stock market and housing tax.

• Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can be uniquely vulnerable to exogenous shocks and urban violence. • Survey evidence from Honduras, El Salvador and Venezuela reveals that smaller and informal businesses suffered most during COVID-19 and that increased violence and extortion was detrimental. • Receiving government support and engaging more with both the State and criminal groups was associated with better business outcomes for SMEs, as was engaging in charity and philanthropy in communities of operation. • While SMEs can be vulnerable to shocks and crises in complex institutional settings, they can also instrumentalize relationships, particularly with communities, in ways that may support resilience. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can be uniquely vulnerable to exogenous shocks and crises. In many Latin American cities, SMEs also face endemic challenges related to urban violence that can inhibit their operations and survival. Drawing on theory related to how small business vulnerability and resilience is shaped by firm capacity, dynamics of violence and businesses' networks and relationships, this article examines SMEs self-reported business outcomes in fragile urban contexts. We do so by utilising a novel primary survey of urban SME owners in Venezuela, El Salvador and Honduras conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results highlight how firms that were smaller, informal and faced increasing violence and extortion tended to suffer; while those that increased engagement with both the State and non-state criminal actors and those who supported their communities tended to fare better. While SMEs may face distinct liabilities in complex institutional settings, our findings suggest they can also exercise some agency in navigating urban violence and exogenous shocks by utilising both formal and informal support networks and fostering community linkages as resilience strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Diasporas do not arise from fixed connections to objective circumstances such as dispersion or relation to a homeland, but instead constantly are negotiated and re-constituted. Ranging from internal gradual change to sudden exogenous change, the re-making of a diaspora can take diverse forms. Despite the prevalence of constructivist and processual approaches, however, research on diaspora identity change has been limited. This paper takes a comparative historical perspective to the post-2016 diasporization of the Gülen Movement (GM) and discusses how the GM responded differently to sudden exogenous shocks in 1997, 2007, and 2016. In both historical institutionalism and rational choice theories, the sudden exogenous shocks do the heavy lifting to explain change; however, it is rather the endogenous parameters that account for the variation in the GM's responses to those shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research Question/Issue: We assess how ownership concentration influences the sensitivities of expansion investments and maintenance investments to changes in a firm's cash flow. We find the causal effect by exploiting the exogenous variation in the price of a firm's product. We also evaluate whether state versus private ownership affects the impact of ownership concentration on investment–cash flow sensitivities. Research Findings/Insights: Using detailed data from 134 major copper mines operating in 29 countries over a 17‐year period, we show that a more concentrated ownership increases the sensitivity of expansion investments to changes in a firm's cash flow, while we do not detect a significant effect for maintenance investments. We also find that state ownership negatively moderates the effects of ownership concentration on the expansion investment–cash flow sensitivity. Theoretical/Academic Implications: The findings improve our understanding of ownership structures and show the nuances of these structures when different ownership features are combined in the assessment of investment sensitivities. Practitioner/Policy Implications: The asymmetric effects of ownership structures on different investment sensitivities call for a more fine‐grained analysis of incentives, benchmarking, and information disclosure policies. This issue is especially relevant in state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) and in firms with a low ownership concentration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business process management (BPM) drives corporate success through effective and efficient processes. In recent decades, knowledge has been accumulated regarding the identification, discovery, analysis, design, implementation, and monitoring of business processes. This includes methods and tools for tackling various kinds of process change such as continuous process improvement, process reengineering, process innovation, and process drift. However, exogenous shocks, which lead to unintentional and radical process change, have been neglected in BPM research although they severely affect an organization's context, strategy, and business processes. This research note conceptualizes the interplay of exogenous shocks and BPM in terms of the effects that such shocks can have on organizations' overall process performance over time. On this foundation, related challenges and opportunities for BPM via several rounds of idea generation and consolidation within a diverse team of BPM scholars are identified. The paper discusses findings in light of extant literature from BPM and related disciplines, as well as present avenues for future (BPM) research to invigorate the academic discourse on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Researchers have found that although external attacks, exogenous shocks, and node knockouts can disrupt networked systems, they rarely lead to the system's collapse. Although these processes are widely understood, most studies of how exogenous shocks affect networks rely on simulated or observational data. Thus, little is known about how groups of real individuals respond to external attacks. In this article, we employ an experimental design in which exogenous shocks, in the form of the unexpected removal of a teammate, are imposed on small teams of people who know each other. This allows us to causally identify the removed individual's contribution to the team structure, the effect that an individual had on those they were connected, and the effect of the node knockout on the team. At the team level, we find that node knockouts decrease overall internal team communication. At the individual level, we find that node knockouts cause the remaining influential players to become more influential, while the remaining peripheral players become more isolated within their team. In addition, we also find that node knockouts may have a nominal influence on team performance. These findings shed light on how teams respond and adapt to node knockouts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The empirical analysis of economic growth usually starts with the linearity assumption, implying only linear or trended movement in output growth and its relation with the explanatory variables. This is relevant when the countries under analysis follow the "Solow" balanced growth pattern, characterized by no significant fluctuations in the macroeconomic data series in the long run and usually described as variation around a single trend, which means that the variations are negligible and do not affect the linear trend in the data. However, sometimes big exogenous shocks such as Global Financial Crisis, pandemic, wars and conflicts around the World impact growth pattern, causing big shifts in growth process in the countries. This impact is especially relevant in the case of developing or transition countries, where the big shocks cause shifts in growth pattern, named growth regimes with specific properties for each regime. The growth process observed through various growth regimes instead of singular growth path was supported by the findings of many scholars who called for specification of a nonlinear data generating process for analysing the impact of big shocks on economic growth. In this paper the main objective is to examine the deviations of real economic activity, measured by the GDP growth rate from some linear trend, by the use of Markov Switching model in the case of North Macedonia. North Macedonia is good example to test for non-linearities in growth patten due to the big shocks and adjustment happening in the course of last three decades such as structural changes of transition, conflicts, Global Financial Crisis, Covid-pandemic. The results suggest that the real economic activity changes before and after some shock or regime shift occurs, characterised with specific mean growth rate and specific volatility within the regime. Hence, the conclusion is that the possible nonlinear notion of economic growth should be taken into account when conduction growth analysis, but also when defining the economic growth programmes in the countries, especially developing ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the results of a research that aims to test the hypothesis that exogenous macroeconomic shocks affect present-day business cycle dynamics in a way that extends beyond the COVID-19 pandemic and the military conflict in Ukraine. The analysis covers the present-day manifestation of three key types of exogenous shocks - health shocks, oil price shocks and natural disasters. The research showed a lot of evidence that corroborates the hypothesis and hence it is confirmed. The three types of exogenous shocks have played an important role not only for the last two years, but also beyond this time horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we explore the response of an aggregate measure of subjective wellbeing to the arrival and passage of the COVID-19 pandemic in a small, geographically separate economy in the South Pacific. Studies of national wellbeing and emotional responses to infection rates during a pandemic have been rare thus far. While several disciplines offer theoretical priors in the case of individuals, far less attention has been paid to the wellbeing and emotional response at a national level. Our paper contributes to the literature by applying a time-series approach to the relationship between wellbeing, emotions and the passage of a pandemic. As such we contribute to a wider literature on macro responses to exogenous shocks. Our analysis involves the use of a wellbeing index and emotional time-series derived from Big Data in the form of tweets originating within New Zealand. The index captures the daily evaluative mood of the country several weeks before the first domestic case of COVID-19 was recorded until several weeks of no new COVID-19 cases. We find distinct reactions to the pandemic: a initial fall in national wellbeing generated by a decrease in the emotions 'joy', 'anticipation' and 'trust'. Following a rapid and severe lockdown designed to limit domestic transmission of the virus national wellbeing recovered relatively quickly. Gaining insight into the wellbeing (happiness) reponse to pandemics at the national level is important because the average level of happiness within countries is known to be associated with a range of economic, social, health and political outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic crises, natural disasters, armed conflict and infectious disease outbreaks, amongst others, present interlinked challenges for small businesses and have generated a recent wealth of research across varied fields. Therefore, this article outlines an analytical lens suggesting how SMEs experience shocks and crises that focuses on the interlinked nature of (i) the business, (ii) the shock and (iii) the response within a given context. We thematically draw out key trends, knowledge gaps and tensions and highlight promising research and engagement avenues for future scholarship and practice. We contextualise (i) how small businesses are distinct from large firms in how they experience shock and crisis events; (ii) how different types of crises impact small business; (iii) how shocks and crises shape SME-specific responses and (iv) how the COVID-19 pandemic as a 'novel exogenous shock' influences all of the above. We conclude by emphasising emerging knowledge avenues for future small business, shock and crisis research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid expansion of China's shadow banking system in recent years has led to continuous accumulation of risks and posed threats to the security of China's real economy. According to the specific mechanism of China's economic operation, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyse the responses of China's shadow banking system to the exogenous shocks of benchmark interest rate adjustment, high-risk enterprise return rate fluctuation and shadow bank return rate fluctuation. Results indicate that (1) the shadow bank loan interest rate reacts intensively to the benchmark interest rate adjustment; (2) the shadow bank loan interest rate has immediate and short-term response to the fluctuation of high-risk enterprise return rate; (3) the fluctuation of shadow bank return rate indirectly affects the shadow bank loan interest rate. An empirical study using the time-varying VAR model provides further empirical evidence. The shadow banking risks caused by the impacts on the shadow bank loan interest would increase the fragility of China's financial system and endanger the security of China's real economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Leaders' prompt communication about the COVID-19 pandemic was critical to stakeholders' safety and knowledge about the uncertainty of organizational operations. In this study, the communication of various university leaders was analyzed in response to the new decade's deadliest exogenous shock, the spread of the deadly COVID-19 virus. Content analysis of statements from a sample of leaders in public universities contained elements of situational, behavioral, and adaptive leadership. The analysis was conducted to identify leaders' statements detailing contingencies being implemented for the survivability of their universities. Primarily studied were leader statements responding to the intensity and severity of the pandemic, rapid changes affecting the well-being of stakeholders, and essential organizational functioning. The findings of this study showed the need for institutional leaders to deliver prompt responses that quickly move people to action while paying attention to the multitude of stakeholder needs. Leaders communicating in situational, behavioral, and adaptive leadership were found to effectively communicate messages with clarity, meaning, and empathy that were responsive to the wave of uncertainty and shocks exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]