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The efficiency of the foreign exchange market is crucial because exchange rates play a vital role in balancing a nation's internal and external economies. Iran's foreign exchange market has undergone significant developments and fluctuations in recent years, impacting its efficiency. This is evident in the monthly time series data for the unofficial exchange rates of the dollar, euro, and yuan from 2001 to 2021. An interesting trend has emerged since 2017: the Chinese yuan appears to be gradually replacing the dollar and euro as the primary trading currency in Iran's international market. Statistical tests, including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Peron (PP), and KPSS tests, indicate weak-form efficiency in the markets for all three currencies (dollar, euro, and yuan). This suggests that these markets remain vulnerable to speculative attacks. Furthermore, Johansen's cointegration and Granger's causality tests reveal an absence of semi-strong efficiency in all three markets. This implies that past price information alone is insufficient to predict future exchange rates. The research findings suggest that choosing the yuan as an alternative currency has had a somewhat positive impact on improving the efficiency of the Iranian currency market.

After the making of the new foreign exchange market law, law no. 14.286/2021, some provisions directly impacted the complementation of certain criminal types. Among them, the crimes foreseen for in articles 16 and 22 of Law 7,492/86, stand out. Thus, studying the new law and its criminal impacts is of fundamental importance. In addition, it is necessary to analyze questions of intertemporal law, since the new law will only come into force on December 30, 2022 and contains provisions that bring beneficial criminal effects to the defendants. Therefore, in view of the future and necessary retroactivity of the most beneficial criminal law, it should be applied immediately, to also encompass the conducts practiced before it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Realidad Economica is the property of Realidad Economica and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article provides basic notions of derivative market, shows what these finance tools are, how they work and how capital can be increased with their help. By citing examples from historical development and simple conventional examples the mechanism of derivatives’ functioning was explained and their links with underlying assets were studied, for instance it was shown how the value of exchange tool can enter the negative zone. Exchange and OTC markets were analyzed, their value was investigated on the basis of historical statistics of international finance institutions and mechanisms of their interaction with regulators on the territory of the Russian Federation and abroad were researched. Strategies of using these finance tools for speculation, hedging and arbitration were demonstrated, their advantages and disadvantages were identified. As a result the authors put forward strategy of entering overestimated market with the help of options.

This study employs the GARCH-Copula-CoVaR and spillover index models to investigate the dependence and risk spillover effects among China's financial markets before and after the "811" exchange rate reform. The findings show that the gold market is the largest risk spillover recipient to the exchange market and has the strongest dependence with the exchange market. The exchange market is greatly affected by the spillover effects of other financial markets, and the monetary market is the main source of these risk spillovers effects. The external spillover effects of the exchange market were significantly enhanced after the reform, but its influences on other financial markets are still weak. The exchange rate reform caused the RMB exchange rate to depreciate sharply and fluctuate violently within a period of time, but it did not have a significant impact on the spillover effect trends of the exchange market in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Semestre Económico is the property of Sello Editorial de la Universidad de Medellin and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Balance of payments and international investment position data are critical in formulating national and international economic policy. Certain aspects of the balance of payments data, such as payment imbalances and foreign direct investment, are key issues that a nation's policymakers seek to address. By studying BOP statement and its components closely, we would be able to identify trends that may be beneficial or harmful to the economy of the county and thus, then take appropriate measures, moreover the BOP provides important information to analyze and understand the economic dealings of a country with other countries. Considering the importance of this category of transfers in the home countries, in accordance with the high amounts achieved and the strong growth, not only in Macedonia but also in the region, these transfers cause increased interest among the scientific community, especially in terms of their potential to support economic country development. Despite the high amounts of registered inflows from emigrants and seasonal workers abroad, it is believed that the volume of funds arriving through informal channels is large. The Republic of North Macedonia is characterized by a long tradition of migration. Although the most popular destinations are known, the exact number of migrants abroad is not fully known. Considering the above mentioned, the subject of this paper will be an analysis of the role and importance of private transfers as an important category in the balance of payments of the Republic of North Macedonia, their role in improving the country's gross domestic product and relevance in improving living standards. of the population as a last resort. The paper will apply relevant reports from renowned international institutions that are most prominent on this issue, and through appropriate analysis will draw specific conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the article is to study the theoretical concepts of the development and formation of electricity exchanges in the process of the energy sector liberalization as a necessary component of transformation of the global economy. The article analyzes the evolution of the formation of exchange markets in the global economy and identifies the processes that led to the appearance of a particular product on exchanges. The liberalization of the global energy market and its influence on further development of exchange trade are studied. Modern microeconomic theories are considered, in particular, theory of market structures, mechanism design theory, theory of industrial organization and auction theory, to confirm the laws governing the formation of electricity exchanges in the process of liberalization of this sphere. The paper identifies six successive stages of the transformation of electricity markets, which reflect the transition from monopoly to competitive electricity exchange markets: 1) industrialization and urbanization; 2) globalization; 3) monopolization and centralization of energy supply; 4) reorganization of the electricity market through transition from monopoly to competitive markets; 5) liberalization; 6) acquisition by electricity of characteristics of exchange goods.

The aim of this paper is modeling the direct effects of sanctions on Iranian exchange market and its overflow impacts on macroeconomic variables including inflation and unemployment during the 1978-2015 period. For this purpose, a diverse range of econometric models such as ARMAX, GARCH and Markov Switching have been applied. The estimation results of the research models have indicated that the sanctions have three direct effects on exchange market including: increasing exchange rate, increasing the gap between official and free market exchange rates and increasing exchange rate volatility. Also, the estimation results of the Markov Switching models have shown that the sanctions have increased both of inflation and unemployment rates as a way of foreign exchange market. In other words, increasing the real exchange rate, increasing the gap between official and free market exchange rates and increasing the exchange rate volatility have a significant positive impact on both of unemployment and inflation rate.

Purpose: The objective of this article is to model a minute series of exchange rates for the EUR/USD pair using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and ARIMA-GARCH methods and evaluate which one offers better forecasts for a five-minute horizon. Originality/value: Despite being a successful technique in other branches of science, the application of SSA in finance is quite new. Furthermore, exchange rate modeling is a complex problem, comprising statistical concepts and properties. However, despite the complexity, the analysis of this series is extremely important for several agents playing, directly or indirectly, a role in the economy and the financial market. Design/methodology/approach: Time series models were estimated using the ARIMA-GARCH and SSA techniques, taking into account three samples of the ask exchange rate (closing): uptrend, downtrend, and no well-defined trend. Findings: The forecasts carried out by the SSA were the ones closest to the original observations for the three cases. Regarding the quality measurements, SSA obtained the best results for both uptrend and downtrend samples; for the sample with no well-defined trend, the findings indicated that the ARIMA-GARCH technique attained better results. However, it was concluded that the SSA forecasts, regarding exchange rates during the studied period, are more appropriate than the ones obtained by the ARIMA-GARCH model, regardless of the market movement. Objetivo: O objetivo deste artigo foi modelar a série de minuto das taxas de câmbio do par EUR/USD por meio dos métodos singular spectrum analysis (SSA) e ARIMA-GARCH, e avaliar qual gera previsões melhores para um horizonte de cinco minutos. Originalidade/valor: Apesar de o SSA se mostrar uma técnica bem-sucedida em outros ramos da ciência, suas aplicações em finanças ainda são recentes. Além disso, a modelagem da taxa de câmbio é um problema complexo que envolve conceitos e propriedades estatísticas. No entanto, apesar da complexidade, a análise de tal série é de suma importância para diversos agentes que atuam direta ou indiretamente na economia e no mercado financeiro. Design/metodologia/abordagem: Estimaram-se modelos de séries temporais com as técnicas ARIMA-GARCH e SSA, sendo consideradas três amostras do fechamento da cotação ask do câmbio: tendências de alta, de baixa e sem tendência dominante. Resultados: As previsões realizadas pelo SSA foram as que mais se aproximaram das observações originais para os três casos. Para as medidas de qualidade, o SSA obteve melhores resultados para as amostras com tendências de alta e de baixa, enquanto, para a amostra sem tendência dominante, os resultados apontaram que a técnica ARIMA-GARCH atingiu resultados mais satisfatórios. Portanto, concluiu-se que as previsões do SSA, no que diz respeito às taxas de câmbio no período em questão, são mais adequadas que aquelas obtidas pelo modelo ARIMA-GARCH, independentemente do movimento do mercado.

The analysis of time varying correlation between gold price and financial market in the context of international investments has been well researched in the literature in last few years. In this paper we study the interdependence of three financial markets and the gold price. We adopt a multivariate asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation EGARCH framework, during the period spanning from January 5, 1995 until May 30, 2017. The empirical results suggest asymmetric responses in correlations among gold market and financial market. We find that asymmetric dynamic correlations exhibit substantial time variation even in similar market tensions for same pairs of assets. Our findings imply that investors and fund managers should take into account the asymmetric dependence structure, which depends on the upside or downside of the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Problems of Economy is the property of Research Centre for Industrial Developmen Problems of Nas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: The objective of this article is to model a minute series of exchange rates for the EUR/USD pair using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and ARIMA-GARCH methods and evaluate which one offers better forecasts for a five-minute horizon. Originality/value: Despite being a successful technique in other branches of science, the application of SSA in finance is quite new. Furthermore, exchange rate modeling is a complex problem, comprising statistical concepts and properties. However, despite the complexity, the analysis of this series is extremely important for several agents playing, directly or indirectly, a role in the economy and the financial market. Design/methodology/approach: Time series models were estimated using the ARIMA-GARCH and SSA techniques, taking into account three samples of the ask exchange rate (closing): uptrend, downtrend, and no well-defined trend. Findings: The forecasts carried out by the SSA were the ones closest to the original observations for the three cases. Regarding the quality measurements, SSA obtained the best results for both uptrend and downtrend samples; for the sample with no well-defined trend, the findings indicated that the ARIMA-GARCH technique attained better results. However, it was concluded that the SSA forecasts, regarding exchange rates during the studied period, are more appropriate than the ones obtained by the ARIMA-GARCH model, regardless of the market movement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the problem of exchange rates forecast is logically considered a) traditionally as a task of forecast on the base of «stand-alone» equations of autoregression for each currency pair and b) as a result of forecast correction of autoregression equations system on the base of boundary conditions of balance ratios systems. As a criterion for quality of forecast constructed with empirical models we take the sum of deficiency quadrates of forecasts estimated for deductive currency pairs. Practical approval confirmed that deductive models meet common requirements, provide accepted precision, show resistance to initial data and are free from series of deficiency of one index. However, extreme forecast errors tell that practical application of the approach offered needs further improvement.

Suppose each member of some syndicate applies a monetary measure to price risk. Then, how might they reasonably share risk? What premiums could apply to insurance policies? More basically: can modestly informed, moderately skilled members eventually allocate risk efficiently and fairly? These questions are framed here below by convoluting the members' monetary measures. If the resulting inf-convolution admits a global subgradient at the aggregate risk, then any such gradient provides equilibrium pricing in a pure exchange economy. Most important, it's shown that clearing prices - and efficient sharing - might emerge after repeated bilateral exchanges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefit for analyzing financial time series such as foreign exchange rates for chaos is that it can help indicate whether random-looking fluctuations actually represent an orderly system in disguise. Furthermore, identifying chaos can lead to greater accuracy of short-term predictions by using nonlinear models since linear models cannot produce good forecasts for chaotic time series In regard to foreign exchange market, we are interested whether exchange rate movements and trading activity is the result of new information coming to the market or a few deterministic forces interact with each other in such a way that a very complicated and volatile time path can be produced. Finally, detecting chaos can make modeling easier, since simple deterministic equations can describe chaos. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange market algorithm (EMA) is one of the most recent population-based optimization algorithm. EMA inspired by the method of selling and purchasing of shares by elite stockbrokers, tries to solve the optimization problems. This algorithm has two searcher operators as well as two absorbent operators for individuals to be absorbed to the elite person, which leads to create and organize the random numbers in best way. The standard EMA algorithm is proposed only for continuous optimization problems. This paper proposes a binary version of EMA for discrete optimization problems. To investigate the performance of proposed binary exchange market algorithm on the discrete optimization, the algorithm has been successfully implemented on 7 Binary benchmark functions in large dimension variables. The obtained results indicate the high ability of the proposed algorithm in comparison with the other algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Routes of the Brazilian financial liberalization. This paper describes the most recent change in the rules of domestic exchange market and emphasizes/explores their consequences to Brazilian macroeconomic.

Abstract: In recent years, exchange markets are increasingly integrated together. Fluctuations and risks across different exchange markets exhibit co-moving and complex dynamics. In this paper we propose the entropy-based multivariate wavelet based approaches to analyze the multiscale characteristic in the multidimensional domain and improve further the Value at Risk estimation reliability. Wavelet analysis has been introduced to construct the entropy-based Multiscale Portfolio Value at Risk estimation algorithm to account for the multiscale dynamic correlation. The entropy measure has been proposed as the more effective measure with the error minimization principle to select the best basis when determining the wavelet families and the decomposition level to use. The empirical studies conducted in this paper have provided positive evidence as to the superior performance of the proposed approach, using the closely related Chinese Renminbi and European Euro exchange market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

From a conducted centralized economy, Kosovo's economy became a free market after 1999. This made the economy of Kosovo to face a lot of challenges. One of them and still a topic not studied among Kosovo economists is the Kosovo currency. Kosovo is not yet a member of EU but since 2002 is using euro currency. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using euro currency for the economy of Kosovo? This was not questionable in 2002, because Kosovo was still in the first steps of creating a financial system. But, today the importance of exchange rates in economy is crucial as a result of the internationalization of businesses, the constant increase of world trade with the national one and the rapid change of money transfer technology. In this research, through quantitative and qualitative methods is analyzed the development of exchange rate market in Kosovo and the effects of exchange rates movements in Kosovo economy, its GDP and inflation and in consumer price index. The research will point out the importance of exchange rates as an interest variable for some of Kosovo businesses and its effects in the transition economy of Kosovo which has not been exposed to exchange rates risk on macroeconomic variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]