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Technological innovations are becoming increasingly systemic in the complex and interconnected world. The initiation and evolution of systemic innovations take time and include numerous challenges, and the mechanisms through which systemic innovations emerge in the interaction between different technologies represent a research gap. This paper explores the emergence of ceramic additive manufacturing as an example of a systemic manufacturing technology innovation. We implemented an event history analysis of four ceramic‐material additive manufacturing technologies. We traced the initiation and evolution paths of each of the four technologies over time and showed a pattern of activities within and across the technologies. The study contributes by revealing that systemic innovations emerge as a result of parallel and sequential development paths of within‐technology system components as well as the interaction between multiple technologies. The timing of the coalescing development paths of the system components and technologies appears crucial but serendipitous instead of coordinated. The findings open new pathways for speeding up the emergence of systemic innovations and forthcoming research to support the evolution of additive manufacturing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faculty-led no-confidence votes against college presidents have increased over the past decade. These votes often aim to create conditions that lead to the president’s departure. In this study, I used event history analysis to investigate the influence of faculty-led no-confidence votes on the tenure of college presidents. The analysis reveals that nearly 70% of presidents leave their positions within four semesters of a no-confidence vote. The study further explores the influence of various factors, including institutional and presidential characteristics, on the likelihood of presidential departure after no-confidence votes. The results indicate that student enrollment size is the only significant predictor, with smaller institutions more likely to experience leadership turnover following a vote. The study concludes that no-confidence votes are a powerful tool for facilitating presidential change across diverse institutional types. These findings have important implications for faculty governance bodies and boards of trustees, highlighting the need for strategic planning in response to such votes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political competition accelerates the enactment of lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans*, and intersexual rights (LGBTI+) due to the dynamic, rational behavior of mainstream parties across the political aisle to adapt to the sociopolitical environment. We argue that LGBTI+ social movements capitalize on median voter shifts combined with the rising pressure of ideologically close challenger parties to enact legislation. To examine this argument, we employ quantitative event history analysis with a unique dataset with measures for social movement, institutional, political, and sociocultural dimensions across 33 years in Spanish subnational arenas. We find that rising leftist and liberal contenders challenging dominant center‐left and center‐right parties, respectively, widen the opportunity political structure of LGBTI+ organizations. Ultimately, rising political fragmentation in a multiparty, multidimensional party system turns both left and right mainstream parties into allies of LGBTI+ organizations, which propose new legislation, due to political platforms seeking to preserve and enhance their electoral base. Related Articles: Burnett, Craig M., and Aaron S. King. 2015. "The Personal Politics of Same‐Sex Marriage." Politics & Policy 43(4): 586–610. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12126. Lewis, Gregory B., Marc A. Rogers, and Kenneth Sherrill. 2011. "Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Voters in the 2000 US Presidential Election." Politics & Policy 39(5): 655–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2011.00315.x. Skipworth, Sue Ann, Andrew Garner, and Bryan J. Dettrey. 2010. "Limitations of the Contact Hypothesis: Heterogeneity in the Contact Effect on Attitudes toward Gay Rights." Politics & Policy 38(5): 887–906. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2010.00262.x. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sport management scholars often draw on institutional theory to examine the adoption of new approaches among sport organizations, but understanding of variation in innovation adoption remains limited. Using a relational perspective to better account for the complexity of the institutional environment, we examine the following questions in the context of esports: how do organizations' ties to different entities across the field affect the adoption of innovations in sport? And how are these relationships shaped by organizational status? Our sample includes 1274 universities and colleges in the U.S. We used event history analysis to investigate the influence of ties to field-level interest associations (i.e. athletic associations) and local-level peer networks (i.e. athletic conferences, state community settings) on organizational adoption of collegiate varsity esports programs. We also examined the moderating role of organizational status (i.e. university/college ranking). With respect to model selection, we used the Cox proportional hazard model. Results show that interest associations and local peer networks have a significant effect on the establishment of varsity esports programs. Additionally, organizational status moderates the influence of different relational ties (i.e. interest associations and peers) on esports adoption. : This study contributes to the institutional literature on innovation adoption in sport by revealing how relational pluralism and organizational status affect the adoption of new sport programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial feature of the democratic life cycle, government stability, has prompted the interest of many scholars across the globe. As a result, research on this matter has established itself as one of the most developed agendas in comparative politics. However, despite the abundance of studies on the drivers of government stability, the ruling parties' capacity to promote policy change when in government remains unexplored. This study aims to fill this lacuna by testing the effect of political constraints on the premature end of cabinets. It does so by leveraging an original longitudinal multilevel dataset comprising information on 429 governments in 20 Western European countries on which event history analyses are performed. The study's findings show that high political constraints significantly increase the risk of cabinet termination, indicating that seeking to survive in office without governing can be an impassable road for ruling parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We exploit a reduction in the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) in New Zealand from 20 to 18 to study the dynamics of youth risk‐taking. Using the universe of road accidents over 15 years and an event history approach, we find no evidence that lowering the drinking age increased alcohol‐related accidents among teens. Complementary results of a cohort analysis suggest that reducing the drinking age even led to a short‐term decline in risky driving among youths directly affected by the MLDA change but had no longer‐run impacts on youth risky driving and drinking behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is caused by the misfolding and aggregation of α-synuclein in neurons into toxic oligomers and fibrils that have prion-like properties allowing them to infect healthy neurons and to be transmitted to animal models of PD by injection or oral exposure. Given α-synuclein fibrils' potential transmission on the gut-brain axis, α-synuclein may be transmitted through colonoscopy procedures. Objective: This study examines a possible association between colonoscopy and PD. Methods: Longitudinal health insurance data of 250,000 individuals aged 50+ from 2004–2019 was analyzed. Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models with death as a competing event were estimated to calculate the risk of PD. Colonoscopy was categorized as never receiving colonoscopy, colorectal cancer (CRC) screening without or with biopsy, destruction or excision (BDE), and diagnostic colonoscopy without or with BDE. Results: We identified 6,422 new cases of PD among 221,582 individuals. The Cox model revealed a significantly increased risk of PD for patients who ever had a diagnostic colonoscopy without or with BDE (HR = 1.31; 95% CI: [1.23–1.40]; HR = 1.32 [1.22–1.42]) after adjustment for age and sex. After controlling for covariates and death, persons who ever underwent CRC screening had a 40% reduced risk of PD (CRHR = 0.60 [0.54–0.67]), while persons who underwent diagnostic colonoscopy had a 20% reduced risk of PD (CRHR = 0.81 [0.75–0.88]). Conclusions: Colonoscopy does not increase the risk of PD, after adjusting for death and covariates. Individuals who underwent only CRC screening had the lowest risk of PD, which may be a result of a more health-conscious lifestyle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use event history analysis on an aggregate dataset from 1997 to 2018 to understand the state-level antecedents associated with the adoption of test-based grade retention policies. Findings indicate that the educational conditions of a state to be more predictive of retention policy adoption than the political, economic, and geographic measures. In particular, a greater share of Black students in a state, lower fourth grade NAEP reading proficiency rates, and larger student enrollments in the early grades were all associated with increased odds of grade retention policy adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines high school diploma or equivalent (HS/E) attainment by mothers who had a nonmarital birth (“unmarried mothers”) and the associations between state‐level Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) policies and their postnatal HS/E attainment. Using an analytic sample of 1154 unmarried mothers without HS/E from the restricted‐use Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study, we tracked postnatal HS/E attainment patterns for 15 years, and conducted discrete‐time event history analysis with mixed effects to test the relationships between states' TANF policies and postnatal HS/E attainment. Only 35.1% of the sample attained HS/E after childbirth, while nearly half of mothers who attained HS/E were not able to do so within 3 years of childbirth. A $100 higher maximum monthly benefit amount is associated with 86.1% higher odds of postnatal HS/E attainment, indicating the need to consider increasing TANF benefit amounts as a means to promote educational attainment among unmarried mothers with educational disadvantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives This study provides one of the first national longitudinal studies of the association between caring for grandchildren (i.e. grandparenting) and the risk of dementia in the United States, with a focus on gender-specific variations. Methods We estimated discrete-time event history models, drawing upon data from the Health and Retirement Study (2000–2016). The analytic sample included 10,217 community-dwelling White and Black grandparents aged 52 years and older at baseline. Results Noncoresident grandparenting was associated with a lower risk of dementia for both women and men compared to grandparents who did not take care of grandchildren. However, the cognitive advantage showed different patterns based on gender and the combination of care intensity and family structure. Grandmothers had a lower risk of dementia than noncaregiving grandmothers when providing a light level of noncoresident grandparenting, whereas grandfathers who provided intensive noncoresident grandparenting had a reduced risk of dementia compared to their noncaregiving counterparts. Grandparenting experiences within multigenerational households and skipped-generation households were not associated with dementia risk. Discussion Intergenerational caregiving plays a pivotal role in shaping cognitive health during later life; however, the impact is nuanced, depending on factors such as gender, care intensity, and family structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To accelerate the clean energy transition, it is necessary to better understand the global policy dynamics and motivations behind clean energy policy adoptions and diffusion. This article examines the differential roles of internal and external diffusion factors on decisions to adopt renewable energy policies, that is, Feed‐In Tariffs (FIT) and Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), employing a unique blend of cluster analysis and event history analysis. Cluster analysis uncovers a dichotomy in adopting countries. First, early adopters emerge as high‐income, democratic countries, mostly energy importers with high CO2 emissions, with OECD and EU membership. Conversely, the second cluster consists of adopters from middle‐income, non‐OECD, and non‐EU nations with lower CO2 emissions. Strikingly, these clusters align with UNFCCC party classifications, underscoring the pivotal role of international agreements. Event history analysis suggests that especially environmental pressure, but also democratic governance and economic development are important when adopting renewable energy policies. Interestingly, environmental endowments seem to be less important. These findings lead to an important question: Are the requisite policy tools readily available to navigate diverse socio‐economic, political, and environmental landscapes, and are they deployed in a timely fashion? Beyond these findings, the study also shows that policy diffusion especially through normative emulation and social learning—operationalized as political globalization, OECD member and following regional neighbors—are important for policy adoption, suggesting the importance of such tools for promoting policies. Moreover, distinctive factors come into play when examining the adoption of FIT versus RPS policies, emphasizing the need for nuanced policy approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study considers the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion and examines why some states have been reluctant to implement the expansion by focusing on state fiscal factors, including budget solvency, long-run solvency, and federal Medicaid assistance percentages (FMAPs). We used data and samples from multiple sources covering nine years (2012 –2020) and 50 states. Our estimation strategy was an event history analysis with robust standard errors to resolve the possible heteroscedasticity problem. The findings show that states' Medicaid expansion decisions were associated with increased long-run solvency and were marginally associated with decreased budget solvency, providing evidence for the significance of state fiscal capacity in shaping policy decisions. The FMAP influenced the adoption of the Medicaid expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal studies including a time-to-event outcome in social research often use a form of event history analysis to analyse the influence of time-varying endogenous covariates on the time-to-event outcome. Many standard event history models however assume the covariates of interest to be exogenous and inclusion of an endogenous covariate may lead to bias. Although such bias can be dealt with by using joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event outcomes, these types of models are underused in social research. In order to fill this gap in the social science modelling toolkit, we introduce a novel Bayesian joint model in which a multinomial longitudinal outcome is modelled simultaneously with a time-to-event outcome. The methodological novelty of this model is that it concerns a correlated random effects association structure that includes a multinomial longitudinal outcome. We show the use of the joint model on Danish labour market data and compare the joint model to a standard event history model. The joint model has three advantages over a standard survival model. It decreases bias, allows us to explore the relation between exogenous covariates and the longitudinal outcome and can be flexibly extended with multiple time-to-event and longitudinal outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many European countries want to overcome the early exit from labour market which was widespread since the 1970s through pension reform and labour policies. The extension of working life is hindered by factors that the literature overlooks. This article focuses on the discontinuity of the late‐career caused by unemployment. The aim is to investigate whether older workers are at risk of unemployment and what are the transitions after spells of unemployment. The labour market trajectories of workers over 50s in 11 European countries from 2006 to 2019 were analysed, specifically after the Great Recession and before the Covid‐19 epidemic. It is based on longitudinal survey data from the generated Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe Job Episodes Panel. Event history analysis and sequence analysis were performed. Older employees are unlikely to face unemployment. The transition rate highlights the difficulty for older workers into re‐employment. A low education level increases the risk of unemployment and remaining unemployed. Data by country confirm the trend towards overcoming the transition from unemployment to early exit. Divergences concern the higher risk of being trapped in unemployment in Southern European countries such as Greece and Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, inflation, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EV) have negatively affected the revenue-generating ability of the motor fuel tax, a major source of highway funding. Many U.S. states have adopted a surcharge levied on electric vehicles as a revenue-generating mechanism to address transportation funding challenges. In this study, we explore the determinants of the adoption of EV fees at the state level using a discrete-time event history analysis. Our findings indicate that state decisions about EV fees hinged upon the reliance on the motor fuel tax, fuel efficiency, growth in EV sales, roadway conditions, the growth in vehicle miles traveled, political environment, and the proportion of neighboring states with an EV fee. • Many states have adopted EV fees to address transportation funding challenges. • The adoption of EV fees are affected by transportation, environmental, political, and neighboring factors. • Revenue decisions such as EV fees present important opportunities for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this contribution, we investigate to what extent diploma recognition contributes to a reduction in the underutilization of refugees’ skills on the Flemish labour market. To do so, we use a unique longitudinal dataset of jobseekers (of non-Belgian origin) registered with the Flemish public employment office (VDAB). The VDAB dataset includes information on the (self-reported) education level, diploma recognition by NARIC-Flanders and employment status. Our research focuses specifically on Syrian and Afghan migrants. First, we describe both populations in terms of the level of education achieved and diploma recognition. With regard to diploma recognition, we make a distinction between specific recognition of the diploma, in which case the diploma is recognized as equal to a specific Flemish programme (for example a master’s degree in psychology) and recognition of only the level (for example a master’s degree). W’ then analyse, using discrete event history analysis, to what extent diploma recognition contributes to finding paid work. We find that research populations differ greatly from each other. We also find a positive correlation between obtaining diploma recognition and the likelihood of finding paid work, both for specific and level recognition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While women's higher education enrollments and graduation rates have outpaced those of men in the United States and most countries around the world, women are less frequently included in academic leadership roles, including the higher education presidency. This paper asks what predicts whether and when a higher education institution has its first woman president, conceptualizing this event as a milestone of gender equality. We use a national probability sample of 234 four‐year U.S. universities and colleges, constructing a novel longitudinal dataset from 1980 to 2018. Employing event history analysis, we examine the potential mechanisms associated with when an institution has its first woman president over time. Our findings suggest that the demographic diversity of faculty and students, gender‐ and diversity‐supportive structures, and the broader environment in which institutions are embedded predict the likelihood that a woman will advance to the level of the presidency. In particular, the presence of gender studies programs and a higher proportion of women in state legislatures increase the likelihood that an institution will have its first woman president. At a time of growing challenges facing U.S. higher education, coupled with greater opportunities from having more diverse students and faculty, universities and colleges increasingly recognize the benefit of women leaders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Soochow University Educational Science Edition is the property of Soochow University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

China's administrative division adjustments (ADAs) reallocate resources and power under a unitary centralized structure. Using national-level data for 2001–2017, this study analyzed the likelihood of ADAs of counties or county-level cities through the events of history analysis method (EHA). The results revealed that county-level local economic factors (value added by first industry, value added by second industry, fiscal revenue, and urban fixed-asset investments) and particularly national strategic factors (promotion of city-regions, frontier location, strategic initiative location) significantly predicted adjustments. The findings verified that economic factors account for ADAs. Additionally, the strategies for creating city regions are a major motive for ADAs. ADAs were performed as spatial strategies in privileged areas to realize national goals for cities, city clusters and frontiers. Governments try to accomplish national strategies and promote spatial governance capacities by territorial urbanization and rescaling administrative power, which crystallizes the practice of state spatial selectivity. However, national spatial strategies should balance efficiency with equality among regions, meaning that the logics of different ADA types differ. Our study enriches the theory of territorial urbanization and contributes to the existing literature by providing a quantitative analysis and thick descriptions of factors facilitating the reconfiguration of state space in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences (John Wiley & Sons, Inc.) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We examined the influence of education on fertility decisions in contemporary China, drawing upon theoretical insights that emphasise the role of social institutions, gender relations, and life course dynamics in shaping family behaviour. This led us to propose a set of hypotheses that explain the differential effect of education on each parity. We used information on female cohorts born between 1960 and 1989, coming from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010–2018. We applied event history models with both independent and simultaneous equations models to account for selection and endogeneity effects. The results point to a substantial contribution of the increased educational attainment in the population in the fertility decline and current low levels of fertility, beyond the role of fertility policies. Consistent with our hypotheses, the results show that woman’s educational attainment has a strong negative effect on the hazard of bearing a second or third child. Male partner’s educational attainment also has a negative effect on the hazard of transition to a second or third birth, yet with a weaker intensity. We also found that the negative effect of education on second birth rates significantly declines across birth cohorts. The results show little educational differentials in the probability of bearing a first child, while the better educated postpone first births. Moreover, the effect of fertility policies, measured at the individual level, gradually increases with the level of education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The firm survival risk is essential to intellectual property strategy implementing in China, however only a few studies focus on this problem. The paper investigates the effect of intellectual property rights protection system (IPR) on survival risk. Specifically, we use an event history analysis to track 8486 firms entering the market from the year 2000, and employ computing methods of the time-dependent Cox model. One important finding from this study is that the survival risks of R&D firms can be reduced approximately 22.57% by every additional unit of intellectual property, and the marginal effect raises to 28.33% with the exclusion of the administrative factors. Another important finding is that the relationship between IPR protection and survival risk is affected by R&D revenue. Finally, the survival risk for all those firms with substantive innovation rather than strategic innovation can be greatly affected by IPR system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response patterns across the fieldwork period are analyzed in the context of a panel study with a sequential mixed-mode design including a self-administered online questionnaire and a computer-assisted telephone interview. Since the timing of participation is modelled as a stochastic process of individuals' response behaviour, event history analysis is applied to reveal time-constant and time-varying factors that influence this process. Different distributions of panelists' propensity for taking part in the web-based survey or, alternatively, in the computer-assisted telephone interview can be considered by hazard rate analysis. Piecewise constant rate models and analysis of sub-episodes demonstrate that it is possible to describe the time-related development of response rates by reference to individuals' characteristics, resources and abilities, as well as panelists' experience with previous panel waves. Finally, it is shown that exogenous factors, such as a mixed-mode survey design, the incentives offered to participants and the reminders that are sent out, contribute significantly to time-related response after the invitation to participate in a survey with a sequential mixed-mode design. Overall, this contribution calls for a dynamic analysis of response behaviour instead of the categorization of response groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Our goal is to measure change over time in the predictors of marital dissolution in the United States. Background: The last comprehensive comparative analysis of predictors of marital dissolution is more than 20 years out of date. Rising inequality in the United States requires a fresh look at the predictors of marital dissolution. The Diverging Destinies hypothesis predicts greater inequality over time in the divorce rate between groups, whereas the Converging Destinies hypothesis predicts convergence in divorce rates. Method: We use a variety of event history models to examine the change over time in race, ethnicity, intermarriage, premarital cohabitation, education, teen marriages, and family of origin intactness as predictors of marital dissolution using data on first marriages from the National Survey of Family Growth covering seven decades of marital histories. We examine racial differences in the nonracial predictors of divorce. Results: In the post‐Civil Rights era, Black women's and White women's marital dissolution rates converged. In the most recent marriage cohorts, marital dissolution rates for Black women have increased relative to White women and teen marriage is increasingly associated with divorce. Women without the BA degree appear to be increasingly at risk for divorce. We find that wives from racial minority groups have divorce rates that are less impacted by premarital cohabitation, low education, and teen marriage. Conclusion: The demographic profile of women at marriage has changed dramatically, while the predictors of divorce have changed modestly. Where there are changes in the predictors of divorce, we find more support for Diverging Destinies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extant literature has extensively examined the diffusion of performance-based budgeting (PBB) from the standpoint of central governments, with a special focus on European and American countries. However, how PBB reforms diffuse within a unitary state, especially among mid-level governments, still remains elusive. To better understand the mechanism of PBB diffusion, this research use Event History Analysis to investigate how leadership characteristics, intergovernmental relations, financial standing, and organizational culture affect provincial PBB diffusion in China. The findings suggest that (1) the reasons for PBB adoption vary across different types of public leaders; (2) PBB reforms are primarily diffused through the bottom-up inducement, with central advocacy and horizontal competition playing an insignificant role; (3) provinces with a greater financial standing are more likely to adopt PBB reforms; (4) a culture that values reforms and transparency of information can drive the diffusion of PBB reforms. As a result, our research has clear implications for performance budgeting literature and practice: it provides valuable insights to policy-makers and public leaders on how to facilitate PBB reforms and policy diffusion across mid-level governments, particularly in a unitary state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many research questions concern treatment effects on outcomes that can recur several times in the same individual. For example, medical researchers are interested in treatment effects on hospitalizations in heart failure patients and sports injuries in athletes. Competing events, such as death, complicate causal inference in studies of recurrent events because once a competing event occurs, an individual cannot have more recurrent events. Several statistical estimands have been studied in recurrent event settings, with and without competing events. However, the causal interpretations of these estimands, and the conditions that are required to identify these estimands from observed data, have yet to be formalized. Here we use a formal framework for causal inference to formulate several causal estimands in recurrent event settings, with and without competing events. When competing events exist, we clarify when commonly used classical statistical estimands can be interpreted as causal quantities from the causal mediation literature, such as (controlled) direct effects and total effects. Furthermore, we show that recent results on interventionist mediation estimands allow us to define new causal estimands with recurrent and competing events that may be of particular clinical relevance in many subject matter settings. We use causal directed acyclic graphs and single world intervention graphs to illustrate how to reason about identification conditions for the various causal estimands based on subject matter knowledge. Furthermore, using results on counting processes, we show that our causal estimands and their identification conditions, which are articulated in discrete time, converge to classical continuous time counterparts in the limit of fine discretizations of time. We propose estimators and establish their consistency for the various identifying functionals. Finally, we use the proposed estimators to compute the effect of blood pressure lowering treatment on the recurrence of acute kidney injury using data from the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionThe issue of tobacco control remains a significant concern for public health worldwide. In recent years, remarkable progress has been made toward adopting smoke-free measures in indoor public places. Although China has yet to introduce a national regulation, specifically for smoke-free public places, more than a dozen cities have successively approved and implemented comprehensive smoke-free regulations. Different cities in China have diverse attitudes and behaviors toward smoke-free policies; however, the reasons for these policy differences and the influencing factors have not received sufficient attention and research.MethodsOn the basis of the multiple streams framework, this study selects 36 key Chinese cities as research samples and uses a directed dyad-year event history analysis method to analyze the factors influencing the implementation of comprehensive smoke-free policies in cities.ResultsResults show that the adoption of such policies is positively influenced by scientific evidence, focal events, media coverage, institutional foundations, economic comparisons, and the influence of health departments and of tobacco control groups. By contrast, policy adoption is negatively affected by the differences in administrative levels, central policy signals, and the influence of the tobacco industry.DiscussionThis study contributes to understanding the internal logic behind local governments’ adoption of comprehensive smoke-free policies, offering insights for further advocacy at the city and national levels in China and providing experiences that can promote the global tobacco control movement.

Event history data commonly occur in many areas and a great deal of literature on their analysis has been established. However, most of the existing methods apply only to a single type of event history data. Recently, several authors have discussed the analysis of mixed types of event history data and the existence of dependent observation processes is another issue that one often has to deal with in the analysis of event history data. This paper discusses regression analysis of mixed panel count data with dependent observation processes, which has not been addressed in the literature, and for the problem, an approximate likelihood estimation approach is proposed. For the implementation, an EM algorithm is developed and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. An extensive simulation study is performed to assess the performance of the proposed approach and indicates that it works well in practical situations. An application to a set of real data is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates what drives local variations when pursuing urban–rural equity in social welfare provision in China. We examine how internal features, top-down pressure and horizontal competition have shaped local governments' decisions to adopt a policy that unifies (yitihua) the urban and rural eligibility thresholds of the world's largest means-tested cash transfer programme (dibao). We collected and coded policies that unify urban–rural dibao thresholds in 336 prefecture-level divisions between 2011 and 2019. Event history analysis showed that internal fiscal constraint – primarily cost concerns – drove local policy adoption; top-down pressure from provincial governments with a high degree of coercive power in policy directives exerted a significant impact; and the horizontal competition's effect was insignificant. Our findings indicate that fiscal arrangements and top-down policy directives from superior governments with higher coercive power are potent tools to accelerate the adoption of a social welfare policy that would otherwise be unappealing for local officials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This research note introduces a set of tools to conduct analysis of household structure and composition with either limited or comprehensive longitudinal data. The data used here are from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa, but the methods can be adapted and applied to other longitudinal micro-data such as register data. A training manual describing the procedures for creating time-varying household measures step-by-step is supplied as supplementary material to this note. Code is provided in STATA but can easily be translated for other statistical software, and the logic for each step remains the same. Results: The analysis of household structure demonstrates how with limited data (such as a household identifier), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership, including household size or the number of members in specific age and sex groups. The analysis of household composition demonstrates how with expanded data (including links to parents in addition to residence status in the same household), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership of specific kin, i.e. mother, sibling or grandparent. The results illustrated in this research note are a taste of what can be achieved by following the training manual in the supplementary material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the substantial efforts made by higher education institutions to reduce dropout rates, a considerable proportion of students still discontinues their initial study program. In view of this situation, the present study aims to investigate whether participation in first-year courses for personal and academic support goes along with a decreased risk of student dropout, and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms. We draw on data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS, student cohort) and apply mediation analysis based on event history models and linear regression models for students in the fields of mathematics/natural sciences and humanities. Our findings reveal that participation in social events for students in both subject groups and academic skills trainings for students in mathematics/ natural sciences is associated with a lower risk of student dropout, which is, partially, mediated by increased social integration. Attendants of bridging courses (often also referred to as summer bridge programs) do not have a lower risk of higher education dropout than students who did not participate. The results highlight the need for comprehensive evaluations of course effectiveness and a more frequently offering of academic skills trainings in STEM subjects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Basin ecological compensation policy is a regulatory policy that coordinates environmental protection, economic construction, and social development in a watershed. The policy helps alleviate problems such as unequal responsibilities for environmental protection and large disparities in economic conditions in different basin regions, enabling better implementation of scientific and green development. Although different regions implement policies differently, studying the factors influencing the diffusion of these policies can help develop an understanding of the elements that promote or hinder policy implementation. Such work can provide a reference for different provinces to develop implementation plans suitable for their regions. Using watershed ecological compensation policy data from 31 provincial administrative regions in China from 2005 to 2018, an interprovincial event history analysis was conducted to study the factors influencing the diffusion of watershed ecological compensation policies. Our findings show that financial support, proximity diffusion, and vertical pressure significantly affect the diffusion of watershed compensation policies at the level of p<0.01 ; below the poor quality of Class 3 cross section, and regional watershed area are correlated with the diffusion of watershed compensation policies at the level of p<0.05. In contrast, water pollution events, forest cover, water resources per capita, and gross domestic product per capita were not directly correlated with national diffusion variables at the 0.05 level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An established negative association between socio-economic status (SES) and divorce has applied to most Western nations since 1960. We expected a positive association between SES and divorce for low-divorce contexts historically because only individuals in higher social strata had the resources to overcome barriers to divorce. According to Goode's socio-economic growth theory, this relationship was reversed as industrialization and modernization began removing the economic and normative barriers. Making use of longitudinal data from parish registers, we investigated SES and other micro-level determinants of divorce among men and women in northern Sweden who married between 1880 and 1954. Results indicated a positive association between SES and divorce among those who married 1880–1919, with the middle class, not the elite, featuring the highest divorce risks. This association changed for couples who married in the 1920s, for whom divorce became more common and the working class faced similar divorce risks to the higher social strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do some potential entrepreneurs promptly engage in entrepreneurial behavior while others do not pursue their entrepreneurial intentions or delay acting? This study investigated whether potential entrepreneurs' mindset shapes engaging in entrepreneurial behavior and the time until they do so. Over a 16-month period, holding more of a growth (vs. fixed) mindset positively predicted taking various entrepreneurial actions and doing so sooner. Interestingly, these effects vanished when individuals faced a less challenging context for entrepreneurship. Post-hoc exploratory analyses revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic magnified the impact of mindsets on entrepreneurial behavior. These findings pave the way for preliminary research on the viability of growth mindset interventions for fostering entrepreneurial behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background In the 'Die Deutsche Diabetes Dialyse Studie' (4D Study), treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on haemodialysis (HD) with atorvastatin compared with placebo had no significant effect on the first composite primary major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) endpoint of death from cardiac causes, fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke. In this study we analysed first and recurrent events in 1255 patients from the 4D Study. Methods We conducted an event history analysis to investigate the effects of previous clinical events on the risk of different endpoints in the total patient group and after stratification by randomization group. Results During a median follow-up of 4 years, a total of 548 MACEs occurred, with 469 first and 79 recurrent events. The most frequent event was sudden cardiac death, followed by death due to infection/sepsis. Of the 548 total MACEs, 260 occurred in the atorvastatin group and 288 in the placebo group [hazard ratio 0.91 (95% confidence interval 0.76–1.07), P  = .266]. Interestingly, analyses of the baseline hazard functions for first and recurrent events as a function of time after randomization demonstrated that the risks of the composite primary endpoint continually increased in the placebo group with increasing time in the study, whereas the risk in the atorvastatin group remained constant after ≈1.5 years. Conclusion This recurrent and total event analysis from the 4D Study underscores the high risk of sudden cardiac death and death due to infection/sepsis in patients with T2DM receiving HD and raises the hypothesis that atorvastatin may stabilize cardiovascular risk only after 1–2 years in this high-risk population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to the growing body of research on social assistance (SA) dynamics by analyzing patterns of SA receipt in China, a middle-income country with a large informal employment sector. Using national low-income household survey data and event history analysis, this study explored the mechanisms underlying exit from Dibao (formally known as Minimum Living Security) and changes in exit probability over time. We found that in the context of an informal economy, the 'explicit' change of individual characteristics and employment structure decisively affects receipt duration on the micro and macroeconomic levels, respectively. On the policy level, affected by the informal employment structure, employment services tend to be of low quality and fail to promote Dibao exit effectively. Although the specific Dibao payment strategy, which is used to address the difficulty in means tests, largely curbs the risks of declining working motivation, it considerably increases the possibility of prolonged Dibao use. With this systemic influence of informal employment, a unique pattern of SA receipt characterized by the combination of long-term use and a nondecreasing hazard rate has developed in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Firearm violence is a public health crisis. Most states prohibit local firearm laws, but some states have laws that allow for lawsuits and other penalties against local governments and lawmakers who pass firearm laws deemed preempted. These punitive firearm preemptive laws may reduce firearm policy innovation, discussion, and adoption beyond preemption alone. Yet, it is unknown how these laws spread from state to state. In 2022, using an event history analysis framework with state dyads, logistic regression models estimate the factors associated with adoption and diffusion of firearm punitive preemption laws, including state-level demographic, economic, legal, political, population, and state-neighbor factors. As of 2021, 15 states had punitive firearm preemption laws. Higher numbers of background checks (AOR=1.50; 95% CI=1.15, 2.04), more conservative government ideology (AOR=7.79; 95% CI=2.05, 35.02), lower per capita income (AOR=0.16; 95% CI=0.05, 0.44), a higher number of permissive state firearm laws (AOR=2.75; 95% CI=1.57, 5.30), and neighboring state passage of the law (AOR=3.97; 95% CI=1.52, 11.51) were associated with law adoption. Both internal and external state factors predict the adoption of punitive firearm preemption. This study may provide insight into which states are susceptible to adoption in the future. Advocates, especially in neighboring states without such laws, may want to focus their firearm safety policy efforts on opposing the passage of punitive firearm preemption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invention of the Internet and rapid technological advancements have transformed Millennials (born between 1980 and 1999) into the first generation that is truly global in its connectivity and experiences. To what extent are the changes in the transition to adulthood for Millennials global and universal? We compared Millennials in France, Finland, Estonia, and Russia to answer this question. Using data from the European Social Survey (conducted in 2006 and 2018), we examined six key events that mark adulthood: completion of professional education, leaving the parental home, first employment, first cohabitation, first marriage, and first childbirth. By comparing the structure, timing, and tempo of the occurrence of these starting events in the selected countries, we found that the transition to adulthood is becoming more unified but still retains country-specific characteristics. Socioeconomic events occur for the majority of Millennials (50-90%) at the ages of 18-20 in a more gradual way in France and Finland, and more abruptly in Estonia and Russia. Cohabitation is the most common event from the demographic part of transition to adulthood. In comparison to cohabitations, first marriages and childbirth occur for less than 50% of respondents and at much older ages. Russians have the highest prevalence of these events and experience them at a younger age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent panel studies, besides other methods such as sequential mixed-mode design, push-to-web method, and prepaid monetary incentives, follow-up contacts such as personalised electronic mails (e-mails) or short message service are often used to motivate nonrespondents to complete the questionnaire, increase the response rate within a limited fieldwork period, and minimise panel attrition. Since it is still unclear when and how often non-complying panellists should be reminded to take part in a survey, this contribution analyses the short- and long-term effects of digital reminders across the fieldwork period. For this purpose, longitudinal data and statistical procedures of event history analysis are applied to reveal the effects of reminders on the likelihood, timing, and social structure of Swiss juveniles' survey participation. On the one hand, there are short-term and long-term effects of multiple early reminders on the response of panellists receiving reminders. On the other hand, there are no cumulative effects across the fieldwork period or overlapping effects of reminders across the mixed survey modes. Considering the social structure of nonrespondents who receive reminders, it appears plausible that there may be a selective response in terms of the panellists' social origin, educational level, and language proficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Objective This research note introduces a set of tools to conduct analysis of household structure and composition with either limited or comprehensive longitudinal data. The data used here are from Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa, but the methods can be adapted and applied to other longitudinal micro-data such as register data. A training manual describing the procedures for creating time-varying household measures step-by-step is supplied as supplementary material to this note. Code is provided in STATA but can easily be translated for other statistical software, and the logic for each step remains the same. Results The analysis of household structure demonstrates how with limited data (such as a household identifier), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership, including household size or the number of members in specific age and sex groups. The analysis of household composition demonstrates how with expanded data (including links to parents in addition to residence status in the same household), it is possible to construct time-varying measures of household membership of specific kin, i.e. mother, sibling or grandparent. The results illustrated in this research note are a taste of what can be achieved by following the training manual in the supplementary material.

We analyze the first cohabitation with a partner as one of the key events in the transition to adulthood and consider its interdependencies with other life events, using life course data from the survey AID:A 2019 of the German Youth Institute (DJI). A remarkable finding is that for men, cohabitation with a partner usually occurs after an individual’s entry into permanent employment.

Although most international agreements are concluded for indefinite periods, the issues they address and parties' preferences are constantly evolving. In some cases, parties seek to close any growing gaps between negotiators' expectations and the changing context by updating their original agreement to its new circumstances. States have several formal tools at their disposal to do so, such as protocols, amendments, and addenda. We refer to this process as institutional adaptation. This paper seeks to explain why some agreements are adapted numerous times during their lifetime while others are not. It argues that state parties are more likely to adapt their international agreements when they acquire new information about their partners' behavior, preferences, or the state of the environment. We focus on two key elements facilitating this process. The first consists of unexpected variation in treaty participation, and the second concerns the design features of the agreement. Relying on event history analysis and an original dataset of design features and membership of 371 multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), we find that low levels of ratifications, high levels of accessions, highly institutionalized MEAs, and anticipatory design features are associated with more frequent institutional adaptation. These findings provide important lessons for the design of dynamic treaties. A pesar de que la mayoría de los acuerdos internacionales se celebran por períodos indefinidos, tanto las cuestiones que abordan como las preferencias de cada una de las partes evolucionan constantemente. En algunos casos, las partes tratan de cerrar cualquier brecha creciente entre las expectativas de los negociadores y el contexto cambiante actualizando el acuerdo original a las nuevas circunstancias. A este efecto, los Estados tienen varias herramientas formales a su disposición, tales como protocolos, enmiendas y adendas. Llamamos a este proceso adaptación institucional. Este artículo trata de explicar por qué algunos acuerdos se adaptan numerosas veces durante su existencia mientras que otros no se adaptan nunca. El artículo argumenta que es más probable que los Estados participantes adapten sus acuerdos internacionales cuando adquieran nueva información sobre el comportamiento, las preferencias o el estado del entorno de sus socios. Nos centramos en dos elementos clave que facilitan este proceso. El primero consiste en un cambio inesperado en relación con la participación en el tratado, y el segundo se refiere a las características de diseño del acuerdo. Teniendo en cuenta el análisis histórico de eventos, así como un conjunto original de datos en relación con las características de diseño y de adhesión de 371 acuerdos multilaterales sobre medio ambiente (MEAs, por sus siglas en inglés), encontramos que tanto los bajos niveles de ratificaciones como los altos niveles de adhesiones, los MEAs altamente institucionalizados y las características de diseño anticipatorio están asociados con una adaptación institucional más frecuente. Estas conclusiones proporcionan lecciones importantes de cara al diseño de tratados dinámicos. Bien que la majorité des accords internationaux soient conclus pour des durées indéfinies, les problématiques traitées et les préférences des parties évoluent constamment. Dans certains cas, les parties cherchent à refermer les écarts qui s'élargissent entre les attentes des négociateurs et l'évolution du contexte en mettant à jour l'accord initial pour prendre en compte les nouvelles circonstances. Pour ce faire, les États disposent de différents outils formels, comme les protocoles, les amendements et les addenda. Nous qualifions ce processus d'adaptation institutionnelle. Cet article tente d'expliquer pourquoi certains accords font l'objet de nombreuses adaptations au cours de leur durée de vie, et d'autres, d'aucunes. Il affirme que les parties étatiques adapteront plus certainement leurs accords internationaux quand elles acquièrent de nouvelles informations concernant le comportement, les préférences et l'état de l'environnement de leurs partenaires. Nous nous focalisons sur deux éléments clés favorisant ce processus : les variations inattendues dans la participation à un traité et les caractéristiques de la conception d'un accord. En nous fondant sur une analyse historique d'événements et un ensemble de données original sur les caractéristiques de conception et l'adhésion à 371 accords environnementaux multilatéraux (AEM), nous constatons que des niveaux de ratification faibles, des niveaux d'adhésion élevés, des niveaux d'institutionnalisation élevés des AEM et l'anticipation des caractéristiques de conception augmentent la fréquence de l'adaptation institutionnelle. Ces conclusions fournissent des enseignements importants pour la conception de traités dynamiques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information and Communication Technologies for Development (ICT4D) projects aim to improve the living conditions of marginalized communities. However, ICT4D interventions have high failure rates. We draw on the Technological Innovation for Inclusive Development Systems (TI4IDS) framework, which argues that ICT4D projects are embedded in a system affected by many different actors, stakeholders and institutions. We analyze this through a qualitative exploratory case study of an ICT4D project for Elderly Rural Women in Mafarafara in Limpopo, South Africa. We map a set of TI4IDS functions through event history analysis (EHA) to explore how ICT4D projects may be implemented. We draw conclusions regarding the dynamic exhibited in the projects and show how the focus shifted from the development of knowledge and guidance of search to knowledge diffusion during the uptake of the technology with a more significant focus on resource mobilization and market formulation towards the later phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this contribution, the hypothesis of reciprocity is tested directly in order to contribute to an evidence-based explanation why an unconditionally prepaid monetary incentive is the most effective and efficient strategy for boosting response rates in surveys. In the context of a multiple-wave panel, Swiss juveniles who received cash are interviewed in an online survey on their preference for reciprocity. This information is used in the next panel wave a year later to reveal the effect of the panelists’ reciprocal preferences on their propensity to start completing an online questionnaire. Applying longitudinal paradata of the fieldwork period and the statistical procedures of event history analysis, it is found that panelists who provide preferences for strong reciprocity are more likely to take part at the survey immediately after the invitation. It is also found that the likelihood to reciprocate declines the greater the time since the gratuities are given and the invitation to participate in the survey is delivered. Numerous reminders do not help to refresh the invitees’ reciprocal preferences. In sum, prepaid monetary incentives are necessary but not sufficient for enhancing response rates: they are one of several strategies for inducing target persons’ participation in surveys.