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Purpose Academic success and failure are relevant lifelines for economic success in the knowledge-based economy. The purpose of this paper is to predict the propensity of students’ academic performance using early detection indicators (i.e. age, gender, high school exam scores, region, CGPA) to allow for timely and efficient remediation. Design/methodology/approach A machine learning approach was used to develop a model based on secondary data obtained from students’ information system in a Nigerian university. Findings Results revealed that age is not a predictor for academic success (high CGPA); female students are 1.2 times more likely to have high CGPA compared to their male counterparts; students with high JAMB scores are more likely to achieve academic success, high CGPA and vice versa; students from affluent and developed regions are more likely to achieve academic success, high CGPA and vice versa; and students in Years 3 and 4 are more likely to achieve academic success, high CGPA. Originality/value This predictive model serves as a classifier and useful strategy to mitigate failure, promote success and better manage resources in tertiary institutions.

This study conducted a randomized control trial in rural Burkina Faso to estimate the impact of alternative cash transfer delivery mechanisms on education, health, and household welfare outcomes. The two-year pilot program randomly distributed cash transfers that were either conditional or unconditional and were given to either mothers or fathers. Conditionality was linked to older children enrolling in school and attending regularly and younger children receiving preventive health check-ups. Compared with the control group, cash transfers improve children's education and health and household socioeconomic conditions. For school enrollment and most child health outcomes, conditional cash transfers outperform unconditional cash transfers. Giving cash to mothers does not lead to significantly better child health or education outcomes, and there is evidence that money given to fathers improves young children's health, particularly during years of poor rainfall. Cash transfers to fathers also yield relatively more household investment in livestock, cash crops, and improved housing.

This paper develops and estimates an equilibrium model of charter school entry and school choice. In the model, households choose among public, private, and charter schools, and a regulator authorizes charter entry and mandates charter exit. The model is estimated for Washington, D.C. According to the estimates, charters generate net social gains by providing additional school options, and they benefit non-white, low-income, and middle-school students the most. Further, policies that raise the supply of prospective charter entrants in combination with high authorization standards enhance social welfare.

This paper presents evidence from the first three years of a randomized controlled trial of a government-administered pilot teacher performance pay program in Punjab, Pakistan. The program offers yearly cash bonuses to teachers in a sample of public primary schools with the lowest mean student exam scores in the province. Bonuses are linked to three school-level indicators: the gain in student exam scores, the gain in school enrollment, and the level of student exam participation. Bonus receipt and size are also randomly assigned across schools according to whether or not the teacher is the school’s head. On average, the program increases school enrollment by 4.1 percent and student exam participation rates by 3.4 percentage points, both in the third year. The analysis does not find that the program increases student exam scores in any year. Mean impacts are similar across program variants. The positive mean impact on school enrollment is mainly seen in urban schools and the positive mean impact on student exam participation rates is only seen in rural schools.

In August 2010, the Government of Vanuatu carried out early grade reading baseline assessments in English and Francophone schools with financial support from local education partners and technical assistance from the World Bank. The results of the Vanuatu Early Grade Reading Assessment (VANEGRA) are cause for concern. French language findings show that while most students develop some fundamental skills in grade levels 1, 2 and 3, by the end of grade 3, less than 1 in 4 students are able to develop fluency in reading to understand most of the text they read. The VANEGRA survey also collected data on the attributes of students, teachers and schools. Factors that were shown to be predictors of better reading performance in the early grades include: speaking French at home, owning the school textbook, having literate parents, having books at home, reading at school and at home, attending kindergarten, doing homework, and receiving help from a family member to do homework. Neither teacher experience nor in-service training showed statistical effects on student reading outcomes and two types of certification showed negative and statistically significant effects on student outcomes both in reading fluency and comprehension. VANEGRA also asked about use of seven reading instructional activities. Students who were never asked to learn the meaning of new words or practice grapheme sound correspondences showed negative and statistically significant effects. Conversely, students who were assigned reading daily in their own school time showed positive and statistically significant results. Lastly, VANEGRA asked about teacher expectations for students' reading performance. Interestingly, the fact that some teachers allowed students to consolidate some reading skills later than the median expectation was associated with better and statistically significant results. Based on the analysis presented, recommendations for improved reading instruction and greater parental involvement are presented at the end of the report.

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are becoming a popular tool for alleviating short-term poverty and reducing the inter-generational transmission of poverty. More than 30 developing and transition countries have implemented these programs, providing incentives to poor households to make investments in the human capital of their children. Programs vary in scale, transfer size, conditionality's, eligibility, and implementation features. This report is structured around five chapters as follows: the first chapter gives an overview of the program, the context in which it was implemented and available evidence on the impacts of the Female School Stipend Program (FSSP) as well as other CCTs. Chapter two focuses on the questions this evaluation sets out to answer and the methods and information used to answer them. The third chapter presents the results from the analysis and is structured around three evaluation questions regarding average impact, heterogeneity of impacts, and spillover effects. Chapter four performs the robustness checks of the findings, examining whether they are sensitive to preprogram trends, measurement error, endogenous compositional changes, and crowding-out effects. Finally, the conclusion discusses the implications of the results, some limitations of this evaluation, and areas that require further work.