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Abstract Background The epidemiological international landscape of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI) has evolved over the last decades along with given inherent differences in acute care and rehabilitation across countries and jurisdictions. However, to what extent these differences may influence neurological and functional recovery as well as the integrity of international trials is unclear. The latter also relates to historical clinical data that are exploited to inform clinical trial design and as potential comparative data. Methods Epidemiological and clinical data of individuals with traumatic and ischemic SCI enrolled in the European Multi-Center Study about Spinal Cord Injury (EMSCI) were analyzed. Mixed-effect models were employed to account for the longitudinal nature of the data, efficiently handle missing data, and adjust for covariates. The primary outcomes comprised demographics/injury characteristics and standard scores to quantify neurological (i.e., motor and sensory scores examined according to the International Standards for the Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury) and functional recovery (walking function). We externally validated our findings leveraging data from a completed North American landmark clinical trial. Results A total of 4601 patients with acute SCI were included. Over the course of 20 years, the ratio of male to female patients remained stable at 3:1, while the distribution of age at injury significantly shifted from unimodal (2001/02) to bimodal distribution (2019). The proportional distribution of injury severities and levels remained stable with the largest percentages of motor complete injuries. Both, the rate and pattern of neurological and functional recovery, remained unchanged throughout the surveillance period despite the increasing age at injury. The findings related to recovery profiles were confirmed by an external validation cohort (n=791). Lastly, we built an open-access and online surveillance platform (“Neurosurveillance”) to interactively exploit the study results and beyond. Conclusions Despite some epidemiological changes and considerable advances in clinical management and rehabilitation, the neurological and functional recovery following SCI has remained stable over the last two decades. Our study, including a newly created open-access and online surveillance tool, constitutes an unparalleled resource to inform clinical practice and implementation of forthcoming clinical trials targeting neural repair and plasticity in acute spinal cord injury.

Abstract Background Accurate predictors of neurological recovery after cervical spinal cord injury are needed. Particularly, to tailor adequate rehabilitation plans. However, objective and quantifiable predictors are sparse. Methods Within the prospective European Multicenter Study about Spinal Cord Injury (EMSCI) registry, cervical spinal cord injury patients are monitored at fixed follow up visits (2, 4, 12, 24, and 48 weeks after injury) clinically and with ulnar nerve electroneurography. Associations of ulnar nerve compound muscle action potential amplitudes (CMAP) with American Spinal Cord Injury Association (ASIA) impairment scale (AIS) grades over time were analyzed using linear mixed modeling. Applying logistic regression, the prognostic value of within 4-week ulnar nerve CMAP for 1-year AIS was analyzed. To account for missing data, (1) last observation carried forward and (2) multiple imputation methods were applied. For model derivation, our centers’ cohort (EMSCI-HD) was analyzed. For model validation the cohort of other centers (EMSCI-nonHD) was used. Results In the EMSCI-HD cohort, the median age (interquartile range (IQR)) was 52 (34–67) years. 58% were male. The initial AIS distribution was: A = 31%, B = 17%, C = 30%, and D = 22%). In the EMSCI-nonHD cohort, the median age was 49 (32–65) years. Compared to the EMSCI-HD cohort more patients were male (79%, p = 0.0034). The AIS distribution was: A = 33%, B = 13%, C = 21%, and D = 33%). In complete-case mixed model analyses (EMSCI-HD: n = 114; EMSCI-nonHD: n = 508) higher ulnar nerve CMAP were associated with better AIS grades over the entire follow up period. In complete-case logistic regression (EMSCI-HD: n = 90; EMSCI-nonHD: n = 444) higher ulnar nerve CMAP was an independent predictor of better AIS grades. The odds ratio for within 4-week ulnar nerve CMAP to predict 1-year AIS grade D versus A-C in the EMSCI-HD cohort was 1.24 per millivolt (confidence interval 1.07–1.44). The model was validated in an independent cervical spinal cord injury (EMSCI-nonHD) cohort (odds ratio 1.09, confidence interval 1.03–1.17). Conclusions In cervical spinal cord injury, the consideration of early ulnar nerve CMAP improves prognostic accuracy, which is of particular importance in patients with clinical grading uncertainties.

Background: New therapeutic approaches in neurological disorders are progressing into clinical development. Past failures in translational research have underlined the critical importance of selecting appropriate inclusion criteria and primary outcomes. Narrow inclusion criteria provide sensitivity, but increase trial duration and cost to the point of infeasibility, while broader requirements amplify confounding, increasing the risk of trial failure. This dilemma is perhaps most pronounced in spinal cord injury (SCI), but applies to all neurological disorders with low frequency and/or heterogeneous clinical manifestations., Objective: Stratification of homogeneous patient cohorts to enable the design of clinical trials with broad inclusion criteria., Methods: Prospectively-gathered data from patients with acute cervical SCI were analysed using an unbiased recursive partitioning conditional inference tree (URP-CTREE) approach. Performance in the 6-minute walk test at 6 months after injury was classified based on standardized neurological assessments within the first 15 days of injury. Functional and neurological outcomes were tracked throughout rehabilitation up to 6 months after injury., Results: URP-CTREE identified homogeneous outcome cohorts in a study group of 309 SCI patients. These cohorts were validated by an internal, yet independent, validation group of 172 patients. The study group cohorts identified demonstrated distinct recovery profiles throughout rehabilitation. The baseline characteristics of the analysed groups were compared to a reference group of 477 patients., Conclusion: URP-CTREE enables inclusive trial design by revealing the distribution of outcome cohorts, discerning distinct recovery profiles and projecting potential patient enrolment by providing estimates of the relative frequencies of cohorts to improve the design of clinical trials in SCI and beyond.

The translation of therapeutic interventions to humans with spinal cord injury with the goal of promoting growth and repair in the central nervous system could, inadvertently, drive mechanisms associated with the development of neuropathic pain. A framework is needed to evaluate the probability that a therapeutic intervention for acute spinal cord injury modifies the progression of neuropathic pain. We analyzed a large, longitudinal dataset from the European Multi-Center Study about Spinal Cord Injury (EMSCI) and compared these observations with a previously published Swedish/Danish cohort. A meta-analysis was performed to produce aggregate estimates for the transition period between 1-6 months and the transition period between 1-12 months after injury. A secondary analysis used logistic regression to explore associations between the progression of neuropathic pain and demographics, pain characteristics, and injury characteristics. For overall neuropathic pain, 72% presenting with pain symptoms at one month reported persisting symptoms at six months, and 23% who did not have neuropathic pain at one month later had it develop. From 1-12 months, there was a similar likelihood of pain persisting (69%) and slightly higher rate of pain developing (36%). Characteristics that were significantly associated with the progression of pain included age and sensory and motor preservation. We provide historical benchmarks for estimating the progression of neuropathic pain during the first year after acute SCI. This information will be useful for comparison and evaluating safety during early phase acute spinal cord injury trials.

Objective: The objective was to track and compare the progression of neuroplastic changes in a large animal model and humans with spinal cord injury., Methods: A total of 37 individuals with acute traumatic spinal cord injury were followed over time (1, 3, 6, and 12 months post-injury) with repeated neurophysiological assessments. Somatosensory and motor evoked potentials were recorded in the upper extremities above the level of injury. In a reverse-translational approach, similar neurophysiological techniques were examined in a porcine model of thoracic spinal cord injury. Twelve Yucatan mini-pigs underwent a contusive spinal cord injury at T10 and tracked with somatosensory and motor evoked potentials assessments in the fore- and hind limbs pre- (baseline, post-laminectomy) and post-injury (10 min, 3 h, 12 weeks)., Results: In both humans and pigs, the sensory responses in the cranial coordinates of upper extremities/forelimbs progressively increased from immediately post-injury to later time points. Motor responses in the forelimbs increased immediately after experimental injury in pigs, remaining elevated at 12 weeks. In humans, motor evoked potentials were significantly higher at 1-month (and remained so at 1 year) compared to normative values., Conclusions: Despite notable differences between experimental models and the human condition, the brain's response to spinal cord injury is remarkably similar between humans and pigs. Our findings further underscore the utility of this large animal model in translational spinal cord injury research.

The anticonvulsant pregabalin promotes neural regeneration in a mouse model of spinal cord injury (SCI). We have also previously observed that anticonvulsants improve motor outcomes following human SCI. The present study examined the optimal timing and type of anticonvulsants administered in a large, prospective, multi-center, cohort study in acute SCI. Mixed-effects regression techniques were used to model total motor scores at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months post injury. We found that early (not late) administration of anticonvulsants significantly improved motor recovery (6.25 points over 1 year). The beneficial effect of anticonvulsants remained significant after adjustment for differences in 1-month motor scores and injury characteristics. A review of a subset of patients revealed that gabapentinoids were the most frequently administrated anticonvulsant. Together with preclinical findings, intervention with anticonvulsants represents a potential pharmacological strategy to improve motor function after SCI., (Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Several novel drug- and cell-based potential therapies for spinal cord injury (SCI) have either been applied or will be considered for future clinical trials. Limitations on the number of eligible patients require trials be undertaken in a highly efficient and effective manner. However, this is particularly challenging when people living with incomplete SCI (iSCI) represent a very heterogeneous population in terms of recovery patterns and can improve spontaneously over the first year after injury., Objective: The current study addresses 2 requirements for designing SCI trials: first, enrollment of as many eligible participants as possible; second, refined stratification of participants into homogeneous cohorts from a heterogeneous iSCI population., Methods: This is a retrospective, longitudinal analysis of prospectively collected SCI data from the European Multicenter study about Spinal Cord Injury (EMSCI). We applied conditional inference trees to provide a prediction-based stratification algorithm that could be used to generate decision rules for the appropriate inclusion of iSCI participants to a trial., Results: Based on baseline clinical assessments and a defined subsequent clinical endpoint, conditional inference trees partitioned iSCI participants into more homogeneous groups with regard to the illustrative endpoint, upper extremity motor score. Assuming a continuous endpoint, the conditional inference tree was validated both internally as well as externally, providing stable and generalizable results., Conclusion: The application of conditional inference trees is feasible for iSCI participants and provides easily implementable, prediction-based decision rules for inclusion and stratification. This algorithm could be utilized to model various trial endpoints and outcome thresholds., (© The Author(s) 2015.)

Background The reliable stratification of homogeneous subgroups and the prediction of future clinical outcomes within heterogeneous neurological disorders is a particularly challenging task. Nonetheless, it is essential for the implementation of targeted care and effective therapeutic interventions. Objective This study was designed to assess the value of a recently developed regression tool from the family of unbiased recursive partitioning methods in comparison to established statistical approaches (eg, linear and logistic regression) for predicting clinical endpoints and for prospective patients' stratification for clinical trials. Methods A retrospective, longitudinal analysis of prospectively collected neurological data from the European Multicenter study about Spinal Cord Injury (EMSCI) network was undertaken on C4-C6 cervical sensorimotor complete subjects. Predictors were based on a broad set of early (<2 weeks) clinical assessments. Endpoints were based on later clinical examinations of upper extremity motor scores and recovery of motor levels, at 6 and 12 months, respectively. Prediction accuracy for each statistical analysis was quantified by resampling techniques. Results For all settings, overlapping confidence intervals indicated similar prediction accuracy of unbiased recursive partitioning to established statistical approaches. In addition, unbiased recursive partitioning provided a direct way of identification of more homogeneous subgroups. The partitioning is carried out in a data-driven manner, independently from a priori decisions or predefined thresholds. Conclusion Unbiased recursive partitioning techniques may improve prediction of future clinical endpoints and the planning of future SCI clinical trials by providing easily implementable, data-driven rationales for early patient stratification based on simple decision rules and clinical read-outs., (© The Author(s) 2014.)