Search

The article discusses COP15, the 15th Conference of Parties to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, which took place in Montreal, Canada on December 2022. It highlights the adoption of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, consisting of four goals and 23 targets for 2030. Topics include the importance of protecting ecosystems and species, financing biodiversity, and the need for international political solidarity and degrowth to address biodiversity loss effectively.

The variation of assemblage composition in space is characterised by the decrease in assemblage similarity with spatial distance. Climatic constraint and dispersal limitation are major drivers of distance‐decay of similarity. Distance‐decay of similarity is usually conceptualised and modelled as an isotropic pattern, that is, assuming that similarity decays with the same rate in all directions.Because climatic gradients are markedly anisotropic, that is, they have different strength in different directions, if species distributions were in equilibrium with climate, the decay of assemblage similarity should be anisotropic in the same direction as the climatic gradient, that is, faster turnover in the direction that maximises the climatic gradient. Thus, deviations from equilibrium between assemblage composition and climatic conditions would result in differences in anisotropy between distance‐decay of similarity and climatic gradients.We assessed anisotropy in distance‐decay patterns in marine plankton assemblages, terrestrial vertebrates and European beetles, using two procedures: (a) measuring the correlation between the residuals of a distance‐decay model and the angle in which pairs of sites are separated and (b) computing two separate distance‐decay models for each dataset, one using only pairwise cases that are separated on North‐South direction and another one using pairwise cases separated on East‐West direction. We also analysed whether the degree of anisotropy in distance‐decay is related to dispersal ability (proportion of wingless species and body size) and ecological niche characteristics (main habitat and trophic position) by assessing these relationships among beetle taxonomic groups (n = 21).Anisotropy varied markedly across realms and biological groups. Despite climatic gradients being steeper in North‐South direction than in East‐West direction in all datasets, North‐South distance‐decays tended to be steeper than East‐West distance‐decays in plankton and most vertebrate assemblages, but flatter in European amphibians and most beetle groups.Anisotropy also markedly varied across beetle groups depending on their dispersal ability, as the proportion of wingless species explained 60% of the variance in the difference between North‐South and East‐West distance‐decay slopes.Our results suggest that the degree of equilibrium decreases from marine to terrestrial realms, and is markedly different between vertebrates and beetles. This has profound implications on the expected ability of different groups to track their suitable climates, and thus on the impact of climate change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring shifts in the climatic niches of introduced species can provide significant insight into the mechanisms underlying the invasion process and the associated impacts on biodiversity. We aim to test the phylogenetic signal hypothesis in native and introduced species in Europe by examining climatic niche similarity. We examined data from 134 ant species commonly found in western Europe; 130 were native species, and 4 were introduced species. We characterized their distribution patterns using species records from different databases, determined their phylogenetic relatedness, and tested for a phylogenetic signal in their optimal climatic niches. We then compared the introduced species' climatic niches in Europe with their climatic niches in their native ranges and with the climatic niches of their closest relative species in Europe. We found a strong phylogenetic signal in the optimal climatic niches of the most common ant species in Europe; however, this signal was weak for the main climatic variables that affect the distributions of introduced versus native species. Also, introduced species occupied different climatic niches in Europe than in their native ranges; furthermore, their European climatic niches did not resemble those of their closest relative species in Europe. We further discovered that there was not much concordance between the climatic niches of introduced species in their native ranges and climatic conditions in Europe. Our findings suggest that phylogenetics do indeed constrain shifts in the climatic niches of native European ant species. However, introduced species would not face such constraints and seemed to occupy relatively empty climatic niches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High exposure to warming from climate change is expected to threaten biodiversity by pushing many species toward extinction. Such exposure is often assessed for all taxa at a location from climate projections, yet species have diverse strategies for buffering against temperature extremes. We compared changes in species occupancy and site-level richness of small mammal and bird communities in protected areas of the Mojave Desert using surveys spanning a century. Small mammal communities remained remarkably stable, whereas birds declined markedly in response to warming and drying. Simulations of heat flux identified different exposure to warming for birds and mammals, which we attribute to microhabitat use. Estimates from climate projections are unlikely to accurately reflect species’ exposure without accounting for the effects of microhabitat buffering on heat flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses importance of educating for survival amid climate and ecosystem changes and potential civilization collapse. It discusses how anthropogenic climate heating resulting in a range of climatic consequences largely caused by increased greenhouse gases especially from CO2 emissions, plus environmental degradations and mass extinction of wildlife and biodiversity.

The anthropic effect associated with worldwide European settlements over the last 500 years has caused dramatic environmental changes, modified regional patterns of biodiversity, and often led to local or complete extinctions. The sigmodontine rodents of Bahía Samborombón (Humid Pampas, central-eastern Argentina) constitute a good case study: a late Holocene archaeological site allowed us to compare a pre-European settlement assemblage (12 species) with the extant one (nine species). We used linear morphometrics (16 cranial and ten mandibular measurements) to assess interspecific morphological variations of the masticatory apparatus in relation to dietary habits for each assemblage. Even though sigmodontines have a tendency towards omnivory, groups based on dietary preference only overlapped partially. Size was one of the main variables involved in niche segregation, and shape characteristics such as rostrum elongation or mandible robustness were linked to different diets. We found that a combination of dietary preference and size was associated with extinctions. The main morphospace change between the two assemblages was related to the local extinction of the three greater insectivores and the smallest graminivore, located towards the center of the assemblage's morphospace. An insectivore was incorporated, involving no significant changes in the general morphospace. Graminivores and larvivores were not affected. Our study sheds light on the causes of local extinctions of small mammals at the Humid Pampas, a phenomenon that had never been studied from an ecomorphological approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Processes such as climate fluctuations together with recent volcanism have driven the diversification and local persistence of biodiversity within the Mexican highlands. We reconstruct the phylogeographic pattern and historical demography of the volcano rabbit, Romerolagus diazi, an endemic lagomorph in central Mexico, to elucidate the effect of the climate-volcanism interaction on its evolutionary history. We sequenced two mtDNA regions for 152 individuals from 45 sample sites located at the volcanic fields Sierra Chichinautzin and Sierra Nevada. We surveyed the genetic diversity, and reconstructed and dated an intraspecific phylogeny. The effective population size trough time was estimated, and an Ecological Niche Model was projected onto the past. Results showed a well-supported phylogeny with five monophyletic lineages with a north to south geographic pattern at Sierra Nevada, and east to west at Sierra Chichinautzin. Dating estimates indicated that those lineages might have started their diversification ca. 1.4 Ma, which agrees with the geological dating reported for the volcanic fields rising. We detected changes in demographic history and potential distribution, with a global population expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum and a retraction during the Last Interglacial period. The molecular evidence showed that the volcano rabbit had a dynamic evolutionary history molded by geological and climatic events during the Pleistocene. The volcanic events that shaped Sierra Chichinautzin and Sierra Nevada generated regions that allowed the colonization, isolation and posterior in-situ diversification of their populations. Additionally, the climatic fluctuations of the latest glacial-interglacial cycles promoted altitudinal populations shifts, with a sky-island dynamic that allowed their persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent scientific reports have highlighted that biodiversity and nature globally are in a state of crisis and there is urgent need for radical changes in the management of natural resources. Invasive alien species (IAS) together with climate change have been recognised as major and fast growing direct drivers of the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and worldwide. The ecosystems with globally significant biodiversity, including the aquatic ecosystems, are most vulnerable to the impact of IAS and, therefore, need special protection. The EU Regulation 1143/2014, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030, and the EU Strategy for the Danube Region Revised Action Plan call for urgent actions addressing IAS in order to minimise their impact on the threaten and protected species and habitats. In response to the necessity of coordinated actions in this respect, the third Joint ESENIAS and DIAS Scientific Conference and 9th ESENIAS Workshop entitled Species, ecosystems and areas of conservation concern under threat from the invasive alien species was held on 3-6 September 2019, in the town of Ohrid, Republic of North Macedonia. The conference was organised by the Hydrobiological Institute Ohrid, Public Institution Galicica National Park, ESENIAS, DIAS, and the Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. The conference was supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of North Macedonia and the Public Institution Galicica National Park. In this introductory article, we present information about the venue of the conference: the Galicica Mountain and lakes Ohrid and Prespa, a region of globally significant biodiversity, as well as conference participants and their contributions. We also review the scientific outcomes of the conference under the seven topics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change remains one of the biggest challenges facing the world today and is characterised by extreme weather events such as heatwaves, extreme droughts and floods. Regardless of the threat posed by climate change to the tourism business, there are still gaps in tourism business perceptions and knowledge of climate change. This research investigated tourism business operators' perceptions, knowledge and attitude towards climate change at Victoria Falls. In this study that took a multidisciplinary approach, primary data were gathered using an online QuestionPro survey instrument and interviews. The survey was administered door-to-door to the identified 122 potential tourism business operators and other key stakeholders. A sample of 77 completed surveys (a 63% response rate) was realised. The study found that there was a general understanding of the causes and impacts of climate change on the tourism business operators, even though the tourism industry was not taking full responsibility for its role in causing climate change. The respondents also cited challenges and barriers in dealing with climate change, including the lack of knowledge and finance, ignorance and a lack of technical capacity. Climate change was deemed to have caused disruption in tourism activities at Victoria Falls because of reduced water flow levels at the waterfall and the destruction of tourism infrastructure during extreme weather events. The research recommended improvement in climate change knowledge, climate financing and build capacity to help the tourism industry meet both the Sustainable Development Goals and commitments to the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Management of protected areas must adapt to climate impacts, and prepare for ongoing ecological transformation. Future-Proofing Conservation is a dialogue-based, multi-stakeholder learning process that supports conservation managers to consider the implications of climate change for governance and management. It takes participants through a series of conceptual transitions to identify new management options that are robust to a range of possible biophysical futures, and steps that they can take now to prepare for ecological transformation. We outline the Future-Proofing Conservation process, and demonstrate its application in a pilot programme in Colombia. This process can be applied and adapted to a wide range of climate adaptation contexts, to support practitioners in developing positive ways forward for management and decision-making. By acknowledging scientific uncertainty, considering social values, and rethinking the rules that shape conservation governance, participants can identify new strategies towards "future-oriented conservation" over the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global ecosystems and their constituent flora and fauna are experiencing a decline of biodiversity due to destruction of habitats, climate change, pollution, and invasive species. Of late, the number of species that have become critically endangered has increased extremely, and these species need to be protected from extinction in the wild. The conservation efforts should involve both in situ, and ex situ conservation and management of populations. Conservation physiology, an emerging multidisciplinary field, helps conservationists understand the physiological responses of endangered species due to the changes in the environment and thereby look for possible options of intervention to save them from extinction. This review summarizes various non-invasive hormone methods and endocrine studies involved in the conservation of endangered animals. The non-invasive hormone method has been successfully used in understanding basic reproductive biology, pregnancy diagnostics and welfare of a wide range of animals in captivity and in free-ranging habitats. This technique would directly or indirectly help in the conservation of endangered animals. This review also sheds light on noninvasive hormone monitoring in effective management and conservation of the endangered species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Poleward range shifts of species are among the most obvious effects of climate change on biodiversity. As a consequence of these range shifts, species communities are predicted to become increasingly composed of warm‐dwelling species, but this has only been studied for a limited number of taxa, mainly birds, butterflies and plants. As species groups may vary considerably in their adaptation to climate change, it is desirable to expand these studies to other groups, from different ecosystems. Freshwater macroinvertebrates, such as dragonflies (Odonata), have been ranked among the species groups with highest priority. In this paper, we investigate how the occurrence of dragonflies in Europe has changed in recent decades, and if these changes are in parallel with climate change. Location: Europe. Methods: We use data from 10 European geographical regions to calculate occupancy indices and trends for 99 (69%) of the European species. Next, we combine these regional indices to calculate European indices. To determine if changes in regional dragonfly communities in Europe reflect climatic warming, we calculate Species Temperature Indices (STI), Multi‐species Indicators (MSI) and Community Temperature Indices (CTI). Results: 55 of 99 considered species increased in occupancy at European level, 32 species remained stable, and none declined. Trends for 12 species are uncertain. MSI of cold‐dwelling and warm‐dwelling species differ in some of the regions, but increased at a similar rate at European level. CTI increased in all regions, except Cyprus. The European CTI increased slightly. Main conclusions: European dragonflies, in general, have expanded their distribution in response to climate change, even though their CTI lags behind the increase in temperature. Furthermore, dragonflies proved to be a suitable species group for monitoring changes in communities, both at regional and continental level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key aim of ecology is to understand the drivers of ecological patterns, so that we can accurately predict the effects of global environmental change. However, in many cases, predictors are measured at a finer resolution than the ecological response. We therefore require data aggregation methods that avoid loss of information on fine‐grain heterogeneity.We present a data aggregation method that, unlike current approaches, reduces the loss of information on fine‐grain spatial structure in environmental heterogeneity for use with coarse‐grain ecological datasets. Our method contains three steps: (a) define analysis scales (predictor grain, response grain, scale‐of‐effect); (b) use a moving window to calculate a measure of variability in environment (predictor grain) at the process‐relevant scale (scale‐of‐effect); and (c) aggregate the moving window calculations to the coarsest resolution (response grain). We show the theoretical basis for our method using simulated landscapes and the practical utility with a case study. Our method is available as the grainchanger r package.The simulations show that information about spatial structure is captured that would have been lost using a direct aggregation approach, and that our method is particularly useful in landscapes with spatial autocorrelation in the environmental predictor variable (e.g. fragmented landscapes) and when the scale‐of‐effect is small relative to the response grain. We use our data aggregation method to find the appropriate scale‐of‐effect of land cover diversity on Eurasian jay Garrulus glandarius abundance in the UK. We then model the interactive effect of land cover heterogeneity and temperature on G. glandarius abundance. Our method enables us quantify this interaction despite the different scales at which these factors influence G. glandarius abundance.Our data aggregation method allows us to integrate variables that act at varying scales into one model with limited loss of information, which has wide applicability for spatial analyses beyond the specific ecological context considered here. Key ecological applications include being able to estimate the interactive effect of drivers that vary at different scales (such as climate and land cover), and to systematically examine the scale dependence of the effects of environmental heterogeneity in combination with the effects of climate change on biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Uncertainties in paleo-habitat definition limit adequate vegetation reconstruction. • Plant functional indicators are of limited value for paleovegetation reconstruction. • Biome scale analyses of functional types rarely apply to plant communities. • Underlying basis for whole-plant modal PFT construction and use is described. • Modal PFTs are more functionally informative than individual traits. Plant functional traits are widely applied in models that simulate the effects of climate change on biodiversity and resource management. Here the aim is to examine the potential role of specific plant functional traits and their whole-plant syndromes (Plant Functional Types or PFTs as specific 'modal' trait assemblages) as indicators of vegetation response to climate change, past, present and future. Because plant functional characteristics have evolved through time, it is widely argued that models of vegetation performance under future climates should benefit from a study of plant response under previous climates. This paper presents an overview first, of developmental concepts underlying the current use of PFTs as indicators of plant response to environmental change, second, implications arising from species acclimation and third, process-based models used in reconstruction of vegetation under mainly Holocene environments but also with respect to present and future climates. In this regard the role of individual functional traits in 'biomization' procedures in vegetation response models is briefly discussed. It is concluded that, while PFTs possess limited indicator value at biome scale, uncertainties in the delimitation of local paleohabitats greatly restrict their use as indicators for paleovegetation reconstruction at community level. Emerging hypotheses are: 1) A whole-plant system of modal PFTs based on a novel set of functional traits can provide an improved alternative to PFTs and traits used in models of vegetation response to climate change, 2) Modal PFTs are potentially more efficient indicators of vegetation response to climate change than individual traits, 3) Improved plant functional selection criteria can lead to more efficient parameterization of Earth System and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Behavioural traits are thought to be important determinants of the resilience of animal species to a rapidly changing global climate. Although increasing temperature has taken centre stage in the debate over climate change, animals will have to survive more than just extreme heat to persist in the Anthropocene. The aim of this review is to stimulate interest in the opportunities for integrative and applied behavioural study of how animals can survive life-threatening weather events, in order to help achieve the societal goal of maintaining viable wildlife populations under future climate scenarios. First, using the thermoregulatory behaviour of a hypothetical ground squirrel species as an example, we explore how different scenarios of behavioural flexibility, plasticity, adaptation, exaptation and management action can lead to population persistence or extinction. Next, we propose that considering weather events such as heatwaves, storms and floods, wildfire and drought as selective pressures worthy of investigation provides a new research framework for climate-related conservation behaviour. In our review we provide examples of the responses of animals to different types of weather extremes and describe behavioural adaptations to environments with extreme climates. We give methodological recommendations to jump start climate change research by behaviourists. Finally, we conclude with suggestions for using citizen science and a public video repository to foster evidence-based decision making for managing habitats and prioritizing species conservation efforts in light of the threats to biodiversity posed by climate change. Highlights • Behaviour research has neglected climate change, a great threat to biodiversity. • Behavioural variation probably explains idiosyncratic responses to climate. • To manage for future climates, we must learn how animals survive weather events. • Immediate changes to data collection can remedy this knowledge gap. • Contributions of citizen scientists and a public video repository are needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Premise of the Study: Polyploids possess unique attributes that influence their environmental tolerance and geographic distribution. It is often unknown, however, whether cytotypes within mixed‐ploidy populations are also uniquely adapted and differ in their responses to environmental change. Here, we examine whether diploids and hexaploids from a single mixed‐ploidy population of Solidago altissima differ in plasticity and potential response to natural selection under conditions simulating climate change. Methods: Clonal replicates of diploid and hexaploid genotypes were grown in a randomized split‐plot design under two temperature (+1.9°C) and two watering treatments (–13% soil moisture) implemented with open‐top passive chambers placed under rainout shelters. Physiological, phenological, morphological traits, and a fitness correlate, reproductive biomass, were measured and compared among treatments. Key Results: Differences in traits suggest that diploids are currently better adapted to low‐ water availability than hexaploids. Both ploidy levels had adaptive plastic responses to treatments and are predicted to respond to selection, but often for different traits. Water availability generally had a stronger effect than temperature, but for some traits the effect of water depended on temperature. Conclusions: Diploid and hexaploid S. altissima may maintain fitness in the short term through adaptive plasticity and evolution depending on which traits are important in a warmer, drier environment. Hexaploids may be at a disadvantage compared to diploids because fewer traits were heritable. Our results underscore the importance of studying combinations of climate variables that are predicted to change simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most high‐performing species distribution modelling techniques require both presences, and either absences or pseudo‐absences or background points. In this paper, we explore the effect of sample size, towards developing improved strategies for modelling. We generated 1800 virtual species with three levels of prevalence using ten modelling techniques, while varying the number of training presences (NTP) and the number of random points (NRP representing pseudo‐absences or background sites). For five of the ten modelling techniques we built two versions of models: one with an equal total weight (ETW) setting where the total weight for pseudo‐absence is equivalent to the total weight for presence, and another with an unequal total weight (UTW) setting where the total weight for pseudo‐absence is not required to be equal to the total weight for presence. We compared two strategies for NRP: a small multiplier strategy (i.e. setting NRP at a few times as large as NTP), and a large number strategy (i.e. using numerous random points). We produced ensemble models (by averaging the predictions from 30 models built with the same set of training presences and different sets of random points in equivalent numbers) for three NTP magnitudes and two NRP strategies. We found that model accuracy altered as NRP increased with four distinct patterns of performance: increasing, decreasing, arch‐shaped and horizontal. In most cases ETW improved model performance. Ensemble models had higher accuracy than the corresponding single models, and this improvement was pronounced when NTP was low. We conclude that a large NRP is not always an appropriate strategy. The best choice for NRP will depend on the modelling techniques used, species prevalence and NTP. We recommend building ensemble models instead of single models, using the small multiplier strategy for NRP with ETW, especially when only a small number of species presence records are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) studies typically show that species richness enhances community biomass, but the underlying mechanisms remain debated. Here, we combine metrics from BEF research that distinguish the contribution of dominant species (selection effects, SE) from those due to positive interactions such as resource partitioning (complementarity effects, CE) with a functional trait approach in an attempt to reveal the functional characteristics of species that drive community biomass in species mixtures. In a biodiversity experiment with 16 plant species in monocultures, 4‐species and 16‐species mixtures, we used aboveground biomass to determine the relative contributions of CE and SE to biomass production in mixtures in the second, dry year of the experiment. We also measured root traits (specific root length, root length density, root tissue density and the deep root fraction) of each species in monocultures and linked the calculated community weighted mean (CWM) trait values and trait diversity of mixtures to CE and SE. In the second year of the experiment, community biomass, CE and SE increased compared to the first year. The contribution of SE to this positive effect was greater than that of CE. The increased contribution of SE was associated with root traits: SE increased most in communities with high abundance of species with deep, thick and dense roots. In contrast, changes in CE were not related to trait diversity or CWM trait values. Together, these results suggest that increased positive effects of species richness on community biomass in a dry year were mainly driven by increased dominance of deep‐rooting species, supporting the insurance hypothesis of biodiversity. Positive CE indicates that other positive interactions did occur, but we could not find evidence that belowground resource partitioning or facilitation via root trait diversity was important for community productivity in our biodiversity experiment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial biogeography is gaining increasing attention due to recent molecular methodological advance. However, the diversity patterns and their environmental determinants across taxonomic scales are still poorly studied. By sampling along an extensive elevational gradient in subarctic ponds of Finland and Norway, we examined the diversity patterns of aquatic bacteria and fungi from whole community to individual taxa across taxonomic coverage and taxonomic resolutions. We further quantified cross‐phylum congruence in multiple biodiversity metrics and evaluated the relative importance of climate, catchment and local pond variables as the hierarchical drivers of biodiversity across taxonomic scales. Bacterial community showed significantly decreasing elevational patterns in species richness and evenness, and U‐shaped patterns in local contribution to beta diversity (LCBD). Conversely, no significant species richness and evenness patterns were found for fungal community. Elevational patterns in species richness and LCBD, but not in evenness, were congruent across bacterial phyla. When narrowing down the taxonomic scope towards higher resolutions, bacterial diversity showed weaker and more complex elevational patterns. Taxonomic downscaling also indicated a notable change in the relative importance of biodiversity determinants with stronger local environmental filtering, but decreased importance of climatic variables. This suggested that niche conservatism of temperature preference was phylogenetically deeper than that of water chemistry variables. Our results provide novel perspectives for microbial biogeography and highlight the importance of taxonomic scale dependency and hierarchical drivers when modelling biodiversity and species distribution responses to future climatic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of mangrove ecosystem services (ES) is essential to understand and manage the contribution of these ecosystems to the well-being of local communities. They are the primary beneficiaries but their experience, knowledge, and information are frequently ignored in ES assessment and mapping. In this study, a participatory resource mapping (PRM) approach was applied using local knowledge and experience to analyze geo-referenced information on mangrove ecosystem services. Local communities were involved from the beginning in method selection, application, evaluation, and verification. This "inclusive participatory ES mapping" was conducted in two villages (Bedono and Timbulsloko, Central Java, Indonesia) from 2014 to 2015. Participants representing different community elements were involved in the mapping process. They first created a historical map of the situation in their villages roughly between 1980 and 1999 (before rehabilitation) and then described the subsequent environmental changes. The mapping exercise also documented different mangrove resources that are utilized by communities and identified key areas, such as harvesting zones, biodiversity hotspots, erosion zones, different fishing grounds, and newly rehabilitated areas. The maps reveal that integrating PRM and indigenous geo-referenced information can elicit past and contemporary information on (changes in) ecosystem service availability and use. The results show that by involving local communities from the beginning, the participatory ES mapping can facilitate social learning, provide the foundation for the creation of social capital, and equip the community with sufficient spatial information to improve local mangrove management. The participatory ES mapping approach presented in this paper can be used as a model to support local and regional decision-making processes and to enhance community-based mangrove management in other coastal regions in Indonesia and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is a major challenge for the future with serious potential impacts on biodiversity. Biodiversity in mountains is particularly vulnerable as many montane species are adapted to narrow microhabitats, making them less able to adjust to a climatic change. It is considered important to investigate range changes in the South African Great Escarpment because of the high levels of biodiversity in these mountains, as well as their importance for water provision in South Africa. The current and future ranges of 46 montane plant species in South Africa and Lesotho were therefore modelled using biomod in R, using presence points and predictor variables which included rainfall and temperature worldclim layers. The performance of distribution models produced was evaluated using the Area Under the receiver operating Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic (TSS), Sensitivity and Specificity. We calculated beta diversity and species richness changes between current and future climates for the group of 46 species, as well as shifts of the predicted presence region boundaries and centroids. We also analysed shifts in minimum, median and maximum elevations. Results show a contraction in species' ranges towards higher elevation as has been documented from other mountain regions around the world. These results are a cause for concern as a warming climate is decreasing the potential regions of occurrence of montane species in South Africa and Lesotho's mountainous regions of high biodiversity. This region is under a diverse range of conservation and land use management practises, and our results suggest a coordinated response to climate change is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Estuarine biodiversity is impacted by climate change and anthropogenic use due to the high productivity of estuarine ecosystems and convenient human use of nearshore areas. Human use of estuaries (e.g. with dredging, filling, and invasive species introductions) has decimated subtidal and marsh ecosystems, thus making them the focus of major restoration efforts. Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) such as eelgrass beds, and their associated communities, fall under these restoration efforts, especially in San Francisco Bay. Diverse eelgrass communities that include grazers, such as Phyllaplysia taylori , have been shown to maintain eelgrass health and promote increased biodiversity. This study addresses the need for simple, predictive models based on field data for use in SAV restoration that incorporates grazer diversity. Predictive models with ecological, abiotic, and landscape variables were generated that explained the presence of P. taylori in eelgrass beds along the coast of the western United States and seasonal patterns in population density. While surprising, the exclusion of abiotic factors in presence/absence model selection suggested that non-point source runoff promotes P. taylori populations via increased food and turbidity, resulting in decreased predation. P. taylori presence within eelgrass beds was best predicted by the positive impacts of nearshore irrigated land, vegetated land, and bare soil land. P. taylori abundance over time within one site was best described by the positive effects of eelgrass density and eelgrass length and the negative effects of epiphytic coverage and average temperature. These models were used to predict habitat suitability for P. taylori in seventeen San Francisco Bay eelgrass restoration areas in various phases of completion, indicating a 53% P. taylori success rate. Incorporating population persistence knowledge from the SAV-associated invertebrate perspective is a step towards grazer community-minded restoration tactics. Graphical abstract Image 1 Highlights • Predicting grazer presence is possible with simple, field-collected data and can improve eelgrass restoration success. • Coastal land use near eelgrass beds matters the most in predicting Phyllaplysia taylori presence. • Eelgrass health metrics are the most influential for long-term maintenance of Phyllaplysia populations. • 53% of current restoration sites in San Francisco Bay cannot support Phyllaplysia populations based on model results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Genetic resources have to be managed appropriately to mitigate the impact of climate change. For many wildland plants, conservation will require knowledge of the climatic factors affecting intraspecific genetic variation to minimize maladaptation. Knowledge of the interaction between traits and climate can focus management resources on vulnerable populations, provide guidance for seed transfer, and enhance fitness and resilience under changing climates. In this study, traits of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) were examined among common gardens located in different climates. We focus on two subspecies, wyomingensis and tridentata, that occupy the most imperiled warm‐dry spectrum of the sagebrush biome. Populations collected across the sagebrush biome were recorded for flower phenology and survival. Mixed‐effects models examined each trait to evaluate genetic variation, environmental effects, and adaptive breadth of populations. Climate variables derived from population‐source locations were significantly associated with these traits (P < 0.0001), explaining 31% and 11% of the flower phenology and survival variation, respectively. To illustrate our model and assess variability in prediction, we examine fixed and focal point seed transfer approaches to map contemporary and climate model ensemble projections in two different regions of the sagebrush biome. A comparison of seed transfer areas predicts that populations from warmer climates become more prevalent, replacing colder‐adapted populations by mid‐century. However, these warm‐adapted populations are often located along the trailing edge, margins of the species range predicted to be lost due to a contraction of the climatic niche. Management efforts should focus on the collection and conservation of vulnerable populations and prudent seed transfer to colder regions where these populations are projected to occur by mid‐century. Our models provide the foundation to develop an empirical, climate‐based seed transfer system for current and future restoration of big sagebrush. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decay of assemblage similarity with spatial distance can be explained by alternative mechanisms: dispersal limitation and species sorting. To understand their relative contributions, we compare the decay in faunal similarity with spatial distance and, independently, with climatic distance, of 21 beetle taxa with varying dispersal abilities and ecological niches, in southern and northern Europe. Similarity in beetle faunas was associated to spatial but not to climatic distances, pointing to the preponderance of dispersal processes rather than niche constraints. In most taxa, southern faunas were more dissimilar than northern ones: smaller initial similarity and steeper distance decay rate. Distance decay patterns in the north were relatively flat and very similar across taxa, suggesting that only good dispersers would have reached those latitudes after the glacial retreat. The difference in distance decay patterns between north and south is correlated with the taxon's slope of the distance decay pattern in the south and with its latitudinal richness difference. That is, in taxa with distance decay patterns similarly flat in the south and the north, the latitudinal richness gradient is weak. This correlation points again to differences in dispersal ability as a major determinant of biogeographic patterns in European beetles. Both dispersal and niche‐related characteristics explained north‐south slope differences, but dispersal attributes turned out to be more relevant when initial similarity and distance decay strength were considered together. Our results show that, to understand diversity patterns in Europe, closely related biological groups cannot be assumed to be surrogates and regions with different historical biogeography should be analysed separately. Paradoxically, the study of beetle faunas of southern Europe will shed light on the processes controlling the recolonization of northern latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identification of refugia from climate change is increasingly considered important for biodiversity conservation, but the distribution of putative refugia may vary across alternative climate scenarios, impeding conservation decision‐making. Based on 117 plant species representative of ecoregions within south‐eastern Australia, we provide a case study identifying in situ refugia across a spectrum of plausible future climates. We define in situ refugia as areas that currently contain populations of the target species, and are projected to remain climatically suitable in the future. Refugia were identified across scenarios describing futures that are, relative to 1990–2009, warmer and wetter, warmer/drier, hotter/wetter, and hotter with little precipitation change. Despite substantial variation in the spatial extent and longevity of climate refugia across species, ecoregions and climate scenarios, clear patterns emerged. By 2070, refugia for species in 1) deserts and xeric shrublands; 2) mediterranean forests, woodlands and shrublands; and 3) temperate and tropical grasslands are likely to be least extensive under a hotter/wetter future. Conversely, wetter conditions may lead to broader refugia for species in temperate forests. We identified areas of congruence where high richness refugia (refugia for ≥ 50% of representative species) were projected to occur irrespective of the climate scenario. These regions therefore appear robust to uncertainty about climate change, presenting clear targets for conservation attention. Our approach provides valuable information for decision‐makers, enabling them to identify and visualise the spatial arrangement of refugia under contrasting scenarios of environmental change. This reveals management options in the context of climate uncertainty and facilitates informed prioritisation of conservation resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Environmental changes that amplify rates of site or patch occupancy turnover can increase risks of decline in spatially structured populations. We asked whether local habitat and meso‐scale climate influenced site occupancy turnover rates in four American pika (Ochotona princeps) metapopulations. We focused on winter cold stress, which is a proposed driver of American pika extinction risk but has been rarely studied. Location: Oregon, Northern California, and Idaho. Methods: We developed Bayesian hierarchical multiseason site occupancy models that accounted for both false‐negative and false‐positive survey detection errors to explore the winter stress turnover hypothesis. We used remotely sensed meso‐scale (1 km) snowpack and temperature data and fine‐grained local habitat attributes as covariates to model site persistence and colonization rates. Results: The estimated magnitude of imperfect detection was greater than previously reported for the species. After accounting for imperfect detection, we found no evidence of declines in site occupancy over the 5‐year study period, but our models provided evidence that pika site occupancy turnover can be high (>50% between some years) and apparently exacerbated by winter cold stress, summer heat stress and variation in site habitat quality. However, strength of evidence varied among metapopulations, suggesting influential local contingencies, as reported previously for the species. Main conclusions: Our empirical results suggest that the American pika may be vulnerable to wintertime turnover, negatively exacerbated by climatic events, with implications for future persistence given forecasted snowpack declines across the species' range. Our models suggest a more nuanced dynamism to persistence and extinction risk than the simple scenario of inexorable, monotonic range contraction offered by static range‐wide distribution models, and we suggest several ways to strengthen these insights with future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Despite their often high‐trophic position and their contribution to many ecosystem functions, little is known about the factors affecting assemblage structure of medium‐ and large‐sized neotropical vertebrates. We examined the relative roles played by the physical and biological environment, and by purely spatial processes, in shaping the composition and diversities of these vertebrate assemblages. Then, based on the theory that the Guianan forest cover shrank to isolated pockets during the late Pleistocene–Holocene, we tested if the past forest refugia may have shaped current vertebrate assemblages. Location: French Guiana, Guiana Shield, South America. Methods: Abundances of 19 medium‐ and large‐sized vertebrates were estimated at 21 locations in undisturbed Guianan rain forests. Using taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic metrics, we partitioned the effects of a range of physical and biological environmental conditions and purely spatial predictors in shaping both assemblage composition and (alpha and beta) diversities. Results: We identified a significant, but weak relationship between taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic assemblage composition and environmental conditions. Assemblage diversity patterns were mainly explained by spatial predictors irrespective of the metrics. Current assemblage diversities are correlated with Pleistocene–Holocene forest history, with the highest alpha diversities outside of putative forest refugia, and the highest beta diversities inside these areas. Main conclusions: Current vertebrate assemblage composition is not strongly marked by common environmental factors. Our main conclusion is that assemblage composition results from individual species responses to the environment. Our findings also suggest that dispersal‐related processes or more probably historical processes shape (alpha and beta) diversity patterns. In fact, forest fragmentation during Pleistocene–Holocene climate changes could have led to isolated vertebrate assemblages evolving into unique species assemblages creating the current high beta diversity inside refugia, whereas the lower habitat stability outside of refugia could have led to mixed assemblages in areas recolonized by forest vertebrates (current high alpha diversity outside of refugia). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Ongoing climate change is currently modifying the geographical location of areas that are climatically suitable for species. Understanding a species' ability to successfully shift its geographical range would allow us to assess extinction risks and predict future community compositions. We investigate how habitat configuration impedes or promotes climate‐driven range shifts, given different speeds of climate change and dispersal abilities. Location: Theoretical, but illustrated with European examples. Methods: We model how a species' ability to track a directional shift in climatic conditions is affected by (a) species' dispersal abilities; (b) speed of climatic shift; and (c) spatial arrangement of the habitat. Our modelling framework includes within‐and between‐patch population dynamics and uses ecologically realistic habitat distributions and dispersal scenarios (verified with data from a set of European mammal species) and, as such, is an improvement of classical range shift models. Results: In landscapes with a homogeneous distribution of suitable habitats, all but the least dispersive species will be able to range shift. However, species with high dispersal ability will have lower population densities after range shift. In heterogeneous landscapes species' ability to range shift is far more variable and heavily dependent on the habitat configuration. This means that landscape configuration in combination with the speed of climate change and species dispersal abilities give rise to nonlinear effects on population sizes and survival after a climatic shift. Main conclusions: Our analyses point out the importance of accounting for the interplay of species dispersal and the landscape configuration when estimating future climate impact on species. These results link ecologically important attributes of both species and their landscapes to outcomes of species range shift, and thereby long‐term persistence of ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The current volume of global trade has led to an unprecedented rate of biological invasions, causing severe problems to native ecosystems. The knowledge of species introduction routes and areas suitable for establishment is therefore an important step in preventing future invasions. The situation can be further exacerbated by climate change, which might alter the amount of environmentally suitable areas for establishment of invasive species. Here, we focus on three Arion slug species recently introduced to North America and Australia with potentially significant impact—A. ater, A. rufus and A. vulgaris. Location: Worldwide. Results: We combined interception records, molecular analyses and species distribution modelling to assess their introduction history and to predict which regions are at highest risk of future invasions. We found extensive sharing of mitochondrial haplotypes among continents in all three species. In concordance with the genetic analyses, interception records suggest that slugs were introduced to the USA and Australia primarily from France, the Netherlands and the UK, but also from other locations in North America. The models predicted climatically suitable regions for the three Arion species in several areas across the globe for which management actions can be targeted. Main conclusions: While the amount of regions with climatic conditions that would be suitable for slug establishment is predicted to slightly decrease under future scenarios, new suitable areas will also emerge. We therefore recommend that prevention efforts to limit new introductions should continue in order to protect vulnerable native ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: To investigate the species‐specific exposure and distributional responses of marine fish and invertebrate taxa to rapidly shifting climate in the Pacific Arctic, characterized by warming and cooling episodes, over the last 24 years. Location: Pacific Arctic region, eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea. Methods: We examined the variations in the summer (June–July) habitat patterns of 21 marine fish and invertebrate taxa in the eastern Bering Sea using multimodel ensemble predictions of species distribution between 1993 and 2016. Using ensemble model outputs, we examined the rates of predicted (biotic velocities) and expected (bioclimatic velocities) distribution shifts across taxa under four consecutive time periods of distinct climatic regimes. We then compared these species‐specific velocity metrics to the rates of local climatic shifts (climatic velocities) and quantified the potential lags in distributional responses relative to changes in climate across taxa and transitions. Results: Our analyses showed that individual taxa responded to climatic fluctuations at different paces and generally exhibited lags in their predicted distributional responses. Subarctic species revealed higher habitat sensitivity and exposure to climatic changes than Arctic taxa, as they expand their habitat ranges into suitable regions emerging in the north under warmer conditions. Importantly, the actual rates of climate shifts (climatic velocities) were poorly correlated with both the expected and observed shifts in species distributions across taxa. Main conclusions: Our findings underpin the importance of incorporating species‐specific climatic sensitivity and exposure to changes in climatic conditions when predicting range shift responses and evaluating species vulnerability. These insights are critical for conservation and management of fisheries resources in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change involves modifications in both the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation. According to global warming projections, both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, thereby increasing climate variability. The previous studies have reported that climate warming tends to decrease biodiversity and the temporal stability of community primary productivity (i.e., community stability), but the effects of the variability of temperature and precipitation on biodiversity, community stability, and their relationship have not been clearly explored. We used a long-term (from 1982 to 2014) field data set from a temperate grassland in northern China to explore the effects of the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation on species richness, community stability, and their relationship. Results showed that species richness promoted community stability through increases in asynchronous dynamics across species (i.e., species asynchrony). Both species richness and species asynchrony were positively associated with the residuals of community stability after controlling for its dependence on the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation. Furthermore, the variability of mean temperature reduced species richness, while the variability of total precipitation decreased species asynchrony and community stability. Overall, the present study revealed that species richness and species asynchrony promoted community stability, but increased climate variability may erode these positive effects and thereby threaten community stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Although much research has explored changes in ecosystem functions associated with global environmental changes, the mechanistic pathways behind the observed changes remain poorly understood. Using an 11‐year experiment that increased growing season precipitation and nitrogen deposition in a temperate steppe, we explored the relative importance of direct and indirect environmental change effects on plant primary productivity. We show that increases in water and nitrogen availability influenced plant productivity via both direct and indirect pathways. While both treatments stimulated plant productivity, changes in plant productivity cannot be explained by observed changes in species or phylogenetic diversity. Instead, the indirect effects of water and nitrogen addition were through their positive effects on plant functional diversity. Importantly, while the increase in one component of functional diversity (community‐level weighted mean of plant stature) resulted in increased productivity, the increase in another component of functional diversity (functional dispersion) resulted in decreased productivity. Synthesis. Our study provides the first evidence for the opposite effects of community‐weighted means and functional dispersion of plant functional traits on grassland productivity and highlights the importance of both traits of dominant species and trait distribution among species in modulating the effects of global changes on ecosystem functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article looks at the protection of the Amazonian Region and its native peoples as a major challenge of our age and time. The author establishes a strong connection between the present crisis associated with climatic change and destruction of ecosystems around the world, and of biodiversity in particular, with the long-lasting historical problem of affirming and defending the basic human rights of the surviving native peoples of the Amazonian Region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale conversion of forest to oil palm has precipitated severe environmental impacts in the lowlands of Malaysia and Indonesia. It is a major conservation priority to ensure that projected expansion of oil palm in Africa and Latin America does not lead to analogous environmental devastation in these mega-diverse places. In an effort to minimize negative impacts from a species conservation perspective, we present a framework for spatial planning that accommodates inevitable oil palm expansion into regions of high biodiversity. Using megadiverse Colombia as an example, we investigated current and projected impacts of oil palm on threatened vertebrates (birds, mammals, and amphibians). We highlight a few areas where expansion would be detrimental to threatened fauna and should be avoided, but generally, there is minimal overlap between suitable areas for oil palm production and threatened vertebrate distributions. Our analysis demonstrates that there is room for oil palm to expand in Colombia without incurring severe conservation risks for threatened vertebrates, so long as it avoids a few high-priority areas such as la Serranía de la Macarena, the Andes-Amazon transition, the Darién, and the Tumaco forests. By applying this approach to other countries facing imminent oil palm expansion, it may be possible to meet a growing commodity demand without severely exacerbating the biodiversity crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Aim: Human‐driven impacts constantly threat amphibians, even in largely protected regions such as the Amazon. The Brazilian Amazon is home to a great diversity of amphibians, several of them currently threatened with extinction. We investigated how climate change, deforestation and establishment of hydroelectric dams could affect the geographic distribution of Amazonian amphibians by 2030 and midcentury. Location: The Brazilian Amazon. Methods: We overlapped the geographic distribution of 255 species with the location of hydroelectric dams, models of deforestation and climate change scenarios for the future. Results: We found that nearly 67% of all species and 54% of species with high degree of endemism within the Legal Brazilian Amazon would lose habitats due to the hydroelectric overlapping. In addition, deforestation is also a potential threat to amphibians, but had a smaller impact compared to the likely changes in climate. The largest potential range loss would be caused by the likely increase in temperature. We found that five amphibian families would have at least half of the species with over 50% of potential distribution range within the Legal Brazilian Amazon limits threatened by climate change between 2030 and 2050. Main conclusions: Amphibians in the Amazon are highly vulnerable to climate change, which may cause, directly or indirectly, deleterious biological changes for the group. Under modelled scenarios, the Brazilian Government needs to plan for the development of the Amazon prioritizing landscape changes of low environmental impact and economic development to ensure that such changes do not cause major impacts on amphibian species while reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human population in health terms but also on biodiversity and agriculture. This motivated a study of the trends in HW events over Extremadura, a region in the southwest of Spain, with much of its area in summer devoted to the production of irrigated crops such as maize and tomatoes. Heat waves were defined for the study as two consecutive days with temperatures above the 95th percentile of the summer (June-August) maximum temperature (Tmax) time series. Two datasets were used: One consisted of 13 daily temperature records uniformly distributed over the Region, and the other was the SPAIN02 gridded observational dataset, extracting just the points corresponding to Extremadura. The trends studied were in the duration, intensity and frequency of HW events, and in other parameters such as the mean, low (25th percentile) and high (75th percentile) values. In general terms, the results showed significant positive trends in those parameters over the east, the northwest and a small area in the south of the region. In order to study changes in HW characteristics (duration, frequency and intensity) considering different subperiods, a stochastic model was used to generate 1000 time series equivalent to the observed ones. The results showed that there were no significant changes in HW duration in the last 10-year subperiod in comparison with the first. But, the results were different for warm events (WE), defined with a lower threshold (the 75th percentile), which are also important for agriculture. For several sites, there were significant changes in WE duration, frequency and intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents research results on the effects of the extremely high temperatures during the heat wave of August 2017 on the growth and development of injury symptoms in sessile oak (Quercus petraea/Matt./Liebl.) seedlings of different age in the area of the Majdanpek municipality in northeastern Serbia. The starting hypotheses of this study is that the resistance of sessile oak seedlings to extremely high temperatures changes with age and that the stand canopy has a significant protective role in situations where sessile oak seedlings are endangered by extremely high temperatures. The extreme weather conditions at the beginning of August manifested themselves in extremely high temperatures and prolonged absence of precipitation. The average temperature at the beginning of August 2017 was 5.0 to 5.1°C (depending on the altitude) higher compared to the period of seedling growth (2010-2016). During the heat wave, the recorded precipitation was in the range from 0 to 1 mm. These climate conditions significantly affected the development of young seedlings, causing wilting of smaller or larger parts of the leaf surface and sometimes leading to plant death. Using analysis of variance, differences in the intensity of seedling damage were found to depend on age, height, and the protection provided by the mature stand canopy. The obtained results point to the very important role of mature trees in the protection of seedlings from the dangers of extremely high temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Selecting the geographic origin—the provenance—of seed is a key decision in restoration. The last decade has seen a vigorous debate on whether to use local or nonlocal seed. The use of local seed has been the preferred approach because it is expected to maintain local adaptation and avoid deleterious population effects (e.g., maladaptation and outbreeding depression). However, the impacts of habitat fragmentation and climate change on plant populations have driven the debate on whether the local-is-best standard needs changing. This debate has largely been theoretical in nature, which hampers provenance decision-making. Here, we detail cross-sector priority actions to improve provenance decision-making, including embedding provenance trials into restoration projects; developing dynamic, evidence-based provenance policies; and establishing stronger research–practitioner collaborations to facilitate the adoption of research outcomes. We discuss how to tackle these priority actions in order to help satisfy the restoration sector's requirement for appropriately provenanced seed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last two decades there has been an exponential increase in the use of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) to address a variety of topics in ecology, biogeography, evolution, and conservation biology. Conversely, the use of these statistical methods to study the potential distribution of subterranean organisms has lagged behind, relative to their above‐ground (epigean) counterparts. The reason for this is possibly related to a number of peculiarities of subterranean systems, which pose important limits, but also opportunities, for these correlative models. The aim of this forum is to explore the caveats that need to be made when generalizing these statistical techniques to caves and other subterranean habitats. We focus on the typical bias in spatial datasets of cave‐dwelling species, and provide advice for selecting the model calibration area. In parallel, we discuss the potential use of different large scale surface variables to represent the subterranean condition. A more widespread adoption of these statistical techniques in subterranean biology is highly attractive and has great potential in broadening our knowledge on a variety of ecological topics, especially in the fields of climate change and biodiversity conservation. Their use would especially benefit the study of the biogeographic patterns of subterranean fauna and the impact of past and future climate change on subterranean ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global extinction drivers, including habitat disturbance and climate change, are thought to affect larger species more than smaller species. However, it is unclear if such drivers interact to affect assemblage body size distributions. We asked how these two key global change drivers differentially affect the interspecific size distributions of ants, one of the most abundant and ubiquitous animal groups on earth. We also asked whether there is evidence of synergistic interactions and whether effects are related to species’ trophic roles. We generated a global dataset on ant body size from 333 local ant assemblages collected by the authors across a broad range of climates and in disturbed and undisturbed habitats. We used head length (range: 0.22–4.55 mm) as a surrogate of body size and classified species to trophic groups. We used generalized linear models to test whether body size distributions changed with climate and disturbance, independent of species richness. Our analysis yielded three key results: 1) climate and disturbance showed independent associations with body size; 2) assemblages included more small species in warmer climates and fewer large species in wet climates; and 3) both the largest and smallest species were absent from disturbed ecosystems, with predators most affected in both cases. Our results indicate that temperature, precipitation and disturbance have differing effects on the body size distributions of local communities, with no evidence of synergistic interactions. Further, both large and small predators may be vulnerable to global change, particularly through habitat disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past global change may have forced animal-dispersed plants with megafaunal fruits to adapt or go extinct, but these processes have remained unexplored at broad spatio-temporal scales. Here, we combine phylogenetic, distributional and fruit size data for more than 2500 palm (Arecaceae) species in a time-slice diversification analysis to quantify how extinction and adaptation have changed over deep time. Our results indicate that extinction rates of palms with megafaunal fruits have increased in the New World since the onset of the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago). In contrast, Old World palms show a Quaternary increase in transition rates towards evolving small fruits from megafaunal fruits. We suggest that Quaternary climate oscillations and concurrent habitat fragmentation and defaunation of megafaunal frugivores in the New World have reduced seed dispersal distances and geographical ranges of palms with megafaunal fruits, resulting in their extinction. The increasing adaptation to smaller fruits in the Old World could reflect selection for seed dispersal by ocean-crossing frugivores (e.g. medium-sized birds and bats) to colonize Indo-Pacific islands against a background of Quaternary sea-level fluctuations. Our macroevolutionary results suggest that megafaunal fruits are increasingly being lost from tropical ecosystems, either due to extinctions or by adapting to smaller fruit sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prolonged shifts in long‐term average climate conditions and increasing variability in short‐term weather conditions affect ecological processes, and represent a fundamental challenge for natural resource management. Recent and forthcoming advances in climate predictability may offer novel opportunities, but capitalizing on these opportunities will require focusing scientific research on understanding the links between climate and ecological responses over multiple timescales, fostering programmatic links among science and management agencies, and developing new and flexible decision‐making frameworks. Anticipating short‐ to near‐term climate conditions can help managers mitigate land degradation driven by unfavorable conditions and promote actions that make the most of favorable conditions. Similarly, anticipating long‐term, multidecadal climate trajectories can help managers to identify those species and communities that are most likely to remain viable throughout the 21st century. A focus on “anticipatory science and management” could substantially bolster natural resource planning and management but will require long‐term investment and widespread adoption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]