1. Ex-Post Cherry Picking.
- Author
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Brown, Rob
- Subjects
INVESTMENT advisors ,INSTITUTIONAL investments ,FIDUCIARY responsibility ,BONDS (Finance) ,ECONOMIC structure - Abstract
Financial planners and institutional investment consultants are making a mistake—one that is problematic and meaningful. They are basing their forward-looking capital market assumptions (CMAs) unduly on US stock/bond returns during the post-industrial era (the last 75 years). This is a problem because US returns during this period were exceptional and non-repeatable, as the result of relative American exceptionalism during the post-WWII era. But this is nothing new, exceptional, rare, or unexpected. Quite the opposite: it is fully expected, normal, and even vanilla. Throughout history (the last 1,000 years), there has always been a top-dog nation or economy. The nation that would hold this role was determined by relative comparative advantage, defined within the context of current-day technologies and economic structures. India, China, Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, France, the UK, and—most recently—the US all held this enviable position. But for good reasons, no nation has ever been able to maintain permanent dominance. The US is no different, and its rise and inevitable fall are consistent with the last 1,000 years of economic development. As a consequence, setting forward-looking CMAs based on a rare and exceptional period drawn from history (essentially, ex-post cherry picking both the geography and time period) is offensive, and a clear violation of due diligence and fiduciary duty. We can do better as advisors/consultants to our clients. This article attempts to lay out the data that supports the argument that American exceptionalism was real, genuine, and vital during the post-industrial era and that this exceptionalism was driven by clear and unambiguous relative advantages, which are no more. As a consequence, forecasting that future US investment market returns will continue to be "higher return" and "lower risk" than the rest of the world is unwarranted and lacks foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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