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Purpose: Economic downturns may have detrimental effects on mental health. We investigated the association of economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s Great Recession with long-term changes in mental health. Methods: We analysed data from 1,647 participants to the larger Moli-sani cohort (2005–2010, Italy), who were re-examined between 2017 and 2020. To evaluate economic hardship, we performed a Latent Class Analysis on nine items linked to change in employment status and financial hardship. Depression symptoms were measured by the Patients’ Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2; higher values indicate more depressive symptoms; data available in N = 941 individuals) and health perception as assessed by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (decreased values indicate worsening of health perception). Results: Economic hardship was categorized into three classes: “None”, “Average” and “High”, the latter reflecting increasing economic hardship. Mean (standard deviation) changes in PHQ-2, SF-36 mental and physical after 12.8 years (median) were − 0.1 (1.3), 0.5 (9.9) and − 2.2 (6.2) units, respectively. Changes in SF-36 mental score decreased by 1.0 unit (0.3) monotonically across “none” to “average” to “high” category in a multivariable-adjusted model analysis; the SF-36 physical score decreased by 0.4 (0.2) unit and PHQ-2 increased by 0.1 (0.1). In comparison with participants in the “none”, those in the “high” class had 84% (95%CI: 26%–170%) higher odds to report an increment in PHQ-2 values from baseline to re-examination. Conclusions: Economic hardship resulting from the Great Recession in late 2000s was associated with deterioration of mental health, as reflected by increased depression symptoms and reduced perceived mental health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Purpose Economic downturns may have detrimental effects on mental health. We investigated the association of economic hardship resulting from the late 2000s Great Recession with long-term changes in mental health. Methods We analysed data from 1,647 participants to the larger Moli-sani cohort (2005–2010, Italy), who were re-examined between 2017 and 2020. To evaluate economic hardship, we performed a Latent Class Analysis on nine items linked to change in employment status and financial hardship. Depression symptoms were measured by the Patients’ Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2; higher values indicate more depressive symptoms; data available in N = 941 individuals) and health perception as assessed by the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (decreased values indicate worsening of health perception). Results Economic hardship was categorized into three classes: “None”, “Average” and “High”, the latter reflecting increasing economic hardship. Mean (standard deviation) changes in PHQ-2, SF-36 mental and physical after 12.8 years (median) were − 0.1 (1.3), 0.5 (9.9) and − 2.2 (6.2) units, respectively. Changes in SF-36 mental score decreased by 1.0 unit (0.3) monotonically across “none” to “average” to “high” category in a multivariable-adjusted model analysis; the SF-36 physical score decreased by 0.4 (0.2) unit and PHQ-2 increased by 0.1 (0.1). In comparison with participants in the “none”, those in the “high” class had 84% (95%CI: 26%–170%) higher odds to report an increment in PHQ-2 values from baseline to re-examination. Conclusions Economic hardship resulting from the Great Recession in late 2000s was associated with deterioration of mental health, as reflected by increased depression symptoms and reduced perceived mental health.

Economic downturns represent an inevitable challenge that nations and businesses must confront, presenting considerable risks. As a result, it becomes imperative for them to formulate strategies to secure their survival. The world has recently experienced an economic downturn due to a pandemic. COVID-19 has caused a significant economic crisis, leading to job losses and disruptions across various sectors worldwide, including the Philippines. The study utilizes economic indicators to determine patterns, meanings, and subsequent opportunities. Specifically, the study sought to identify relevant economic indicators, find patterns and meaning within each indicator and among indicators, and determine implications from findings. Content analysis was used in the study. It is a qualitative research method to identify and interpret themes, meanings, and patterns. The materials used include eleven Philippine economic indicators, namely, the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index, Balance of Trade, Core Inflation Rate, Consumer Spending, Tourist Arrivals, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Credit, Gold Reserves, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Money Supply M2, and Interest Rate. In conclusion, the study determined that the collective surge in economic activities is positively related to the rise of inflation; increased interest rates potentially mitigated the rise in inflation, and other factors negated the trade deficits and gold reserve fluctuations. The Philippine economy is on the path to recovery, and the unique interrelations of economic indicators imply a more stable environment in the Philippine economy. This signals a green light for investors and an opportunity for policymakers to fine-tune existing initiatives to sustain economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To test whether monthly declines in aggregate employment precede a rise in African American psychiatric-related ED visits (PREDVs) relative to white visits among low-income, working-age populations. Design: This study used repeated cross-sectional time series data for 6.7 million PREDVs among African Americans and white individuals from the State Emergency Department Database in 48 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across four states (Arizona, California, New York, New Jersey) from 2006 to 2011. MSA-level monthly employment data were obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome was specified as the race of a PREDV (African American = 1, white = 0). The exposure was operationalized as monthly percent change in MSA-level aggregate employment lagged by 0 to 3 months. Analysis included logistic regressions with county, month and year fixed effects, and clustered standard errors to examine the relation between odds of an African American PREDV (relative to white) following 0 to 3 months lag of MSA-level aggregate employment change. Findings: Logistic regression results indicate that the odds of PREDVs for publicly insured, working-age African Americans (relative to white individuals) increase 3 months after ambient employment decline (OR: 0.994, 95% CI: [0.990 0.998]). Conclusion: Economic downturns may marginally increase psychiatric help-seeking in EDs among publicly insured (low-income), working-age African Americans relative to white individuals. Findings from this study may contribute to the theoretical understanding of dynamic drivers of racial disparities in psychiatric ED visits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveTo test whether monthly declines in aggregate employment precede a rise in African American psychiatric-related ED visits (PREDVs) relative to white visits among low-income, working-age populations.DesignThis study used repeated cross-sectional time series data for 6.7 million PREDVs among African Americans and white individuals from the State Emergency Department Database in 48 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across four states (Arizona, California, New York, New Jersey) from 2006 to 2011. MSA-level monthly employment data were obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome was specified as the race of a PREDV (African American = 1, white = 0). The exposure was operationalized as monthly percent change in MSA-level aggregate employment lagged by 0 to 3 months. Analysis included logistic regressions with county, month and year fixed effects, and clustered standard errors to examine the relation between odds of an African American PREDV (relative to white) following 0 to 3 months lag of MSA-level aggregate employment change.FindingsLogistic regression results indicate that the odds of PREDVs for publicly insured, working-age African Americans (relative to white individuals) increase 3 months after ambient employment decline (OR: 0.994, 95% CI: [0.990 0.998]).ConclusionEconomic downturns may marginally increase psychiatric help-seeking in EDs among publicly insured (low-income), working-age African Americans relative to white individuals. Findings from this study may contribute to the theoretical understanding of dynamic drivers of racial disparities in psychiatric ED visits.

Social dynamics and economic cycles have driven population growth in Europe toward heterogeneous and hardly predictable spatial patterns. To assess the role of economic expansion and recession, our study identifies contextual factors of population growth and decline at the prefectural scale in Greece, a peripheral economy in Europe, estimating the differential impact of economic scale, agglomeration, accessibility, and amenities since the early 2000s. With economic expansion (2002–2009), population growth was largely dependent on agglomeration forces in both high and medium-density prefectures. The spatial model observed during recession (2010–2017) has instead reflected the inherent decline of agglomeration economies—with population increasing in accessible, rural districts with (natural and cultural) amenities. In more recent years, population growth in low-density coastal areas definitely suggests how demographic trends have been decoupled from the geography of income and wealth, reducing the divide in central and peripheral locations. The dominance of Athens and Thessaloniki in the Greek urban hierarchy progressively lowered, leading to a settlement model based on population growth in 'intermediate towns' and attractive/accessible rural locations. Such dynamics delineate a development path grounded on the spatial distribution of amenities, suggesting the existence of a 'reverse density dividend' that requires a specific investigation in advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundThe rise in opioid-related mortality and opioid-related emergency department (ED) visits has stimulated research on whether broader economic declines, such as the Great Recession, affect opioid-related morbidity. We examine in New York City whether one measure of morbidity-opioid-related ED visits-responded acutely to the large negative "shock" of the Great Recession.MethodsData comprise outpatient "treat and release" opioid-related ED visits in New York City for the 72 months spanning January 2006 to December 2011, taken from the Statewide Emergency Department Database (n = 150,246). We modeled the monthly incidence of opioid-related ED visits using Autoregressive, Integrated, Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series methods to control for patterning in ED visits before examining its potential association with the economic shock of the Great Recession.ResultsNew York City shows a mean of 1761 outpatient ED visits per month for opioid dependence and abuse. Unexpectedly large drops in employment coincide with fewer than expected opioid dependence and abuse ED visits in that same month. The result (coefficient = 0.046, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.002, 0.090) represents a 0.8% drop in overall incidence of opioid dependence and abuse ED visits during the Great Recession. We, however, observe no association between the Great Recession and ED visits for prescription opioid overdose or heroin overdose, or with inpatient ED visits for opioid dependence and abuse.ConclusionsFindings, if replicated, indicate distinct short-term reductions in opioid-related morbidity following the Great Recession. This result diverges from previous findings of increased opioid use following extended economic downturns.

This paper analyses the factors that affect the duration of economic downturns using data for growth (acceleration) cycles for 13 industrialised countries over the period 1950–2018. Our findings show that downturn periods die of old age. We also find that when trading partners are in a downturn, the duration of a country's downturn is likely to be shorter, a likely outcome of common stabilisation mechanisms or terms of trade changes. Additionally, more open economies are found to experience shorter downturn periods and European Union countries show a higher level of synchronisation than the others. Lastly, trade linkages are found to intensify acceleration cycle synchronisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study compares developed and developing market stocks during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, a time of high geopolitical tensions. Economic downturns are complicated by geopolitical, financial, and natural disasters. A relevant case study to analyze equities market divergence under geopolitical uncertainty. Design/Methodology/Approach: This research quantifies stock market indexes, daily returns, and volatility indicators using historical financial data. Performance indicators, volatility patterns, and risk-return characteristics are compared across established and developing market stocks. The analysis seeks to determine if geopolitical tensions during the war increased market volatility and to understand market segment reactions. The analysis uses cumulative returns, average returns, standard deviations, volatility indexes, and the Sharpe ratio. Findings: It is found that clear geopolitical tensions during the crisis affected market volatility differently in established and new economies. This is because industrialized economies are financially stronger than developing ones. The Sharpe ratio allowed detailed market sector comparisons of risk-adjusted returns. This comparison showed investors' possible trade-offs between rewards and dangers. Implications/Originality/Value: These findings affect investors seeking educated strategies, politicians creating effective actions, and market participants managing risks. This research improves decision-making and risk management amid economic volatility by evaluating geopolitical events and stock market behaviors.

After years following the breakdown of the Great Recession in Europe, crisis-driven urban shrinkage can be adequately investigated considering changes over time in selected demographic indicators, with a specific focus on migration. Using official statistics and a literature review, the present study documents the inherent demographic decline in metropolitan Athens (Greece) as a response to economic stagnation after a long-lasting expansion. The empirical results of our study delineate metropolitan shrinkage in Southern Europe as a process associated with complex socioeconomic conditions leading to (possibly counterintuitive) demographic outcomes as far as migration trends are concerned. Recession has determined unsustainable economic conditions especially for non-native population segments, promoting both class and ethnic segregation. The negative migration balance in the 2010s led to an intense population decline hitting settlements made already demographically fragile because of low fertility and aging. Athens became a sort of 'migrant trap', being progressively unattractive for incoming migration flows—both internal and international—and losing an increasingly high number of non-native residents settling in the area, especially during the 'gold' decade of the 2004 Olympics. A sudden reduction in immigration rates reflected both economic (recession) and non-economic (population aging, fertility reduction, and childbearing postponement) factors, causing an incipient shrinkage after secular urban growth. The empirical results of our study add to the traditional literature on 'industrial cities shrinkage' in Europe and contribute to (re)formulate short- and medium-term development scenarios in large agglomerations, shedding further light on the role of migration in crisis-driven processes of urban decline in Mediterranean Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business cycles in wealthier countries reflected a continuous transformation of spatial organizations of both countries and regions, possibly strengthening social inequalities and polarization in more and less productive areas. Local job markets are particularly sensitive to changes in both settlement forms and socioeconomic functions, being in turn dependent on more intense regional divides and product dynamics. More specifically, economic downturns were assumed to influence regional spatial structures. To validate this hypothesis, we investigated (i) spatial regime and (ii) short-term changes of both activity rate and unemployment rate (taken as proxies of local job market functioning) in 686 homogeneous districts of Italy over three periods: (i) employment growth reflecting moderate income expansion (2004–2007); (ii) early crisis' stage with a modest increase of unemployment (2007–2010); and (iii) late crisis' stage with marked increase of unemployment (2010–2013). The empirical analysis identified the socioeconomic factors that characterize job market dynamics more effectively. Results pointed out that the 2007 recession corresponded with decreased spatial polarizations in unemployment rate, resulting in a deepening of the traditional gap between affluent northern regions and disadvantaged southern areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an abrupt break in economic, demographic and social dynamics, both in developing countries and advanced economies, perhaps with a more significant impact in the latter, though further evidence is needed to support this assumption. Unfortunately, earlier research on medium- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on urban and regional systems—with particular reference to the demographic dimension—have not yet reached a consensus on methodological and operational approaches. In the present study, we have applied an interpretative framework to the analysis of the demographic balance in Italy, one of the most affected countries in the world, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have compared a wide set of demographic indicators at two time periods of equal duration (2002–2010 and 2011–2019) and in two subsequent years (2020 and 2021), controlling for the regional context. These periods were chosen as sufficiently long to be representative of differentiated economic dynamics (2002–2010: economic expansion and demographic recovery; 2011–2019: recession and consequent demographic decline). Years 2020 and 2021 were assumed to reflect the short- and medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of the statistical analysis highlight how the COVID-19 pandemic has exerted considerable pressure on population dynamics, determining short-term (mortality increase), medium-term (more volatile migration flows) and long-term (fertility decline) effects. Future studies should clarify the aggregate role of pandemics in population dynamics as a possible proxy of the decline of demographically fragile regions in advanced economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key question in understanding barriers to climate and environmental policy is whether changing economic conditions weaken individuals’ support for climate and environmental action. The large body of literature examining this question, however, has come to contradictory results, with studies measuring changes within individuals typically finding no such effect (e.g. Mildenberger and Leiserowitz, Env Polit 26(5):801–824 2017). In this letter, I use the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic to provide a stringent test of how economic shocks affect concern for climate change and the environment. Using panel data from the UK, that was collected just before (November 2019) and just after (June 2020) the outbreak of COVID-19, I find that the pandemic caused individuals to significantly deprioritise climate change and the environment in absolute terms, and the environment relative to the economy. These effects significantly vary depending upon individuals’ employment trajectories, concerns about the cost of living, and ideological preferences, but do not significantly vary by individuals’ prior vote choice. The findings suggest that in times of severe economic distress, unlike smaller economic downturns, climate change and the environment is deprioritised. This has implications for our understanding of the political feasibility of climate and environmental action, when individuals are faced with harsh economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate business failure prediction represents an advantage for market players and is important for risk management. The purpose of this study is to develop a more accurate and stable business failure prediction model by using a majority voting ensemble method with a decision tree (DT) with experimental data on US restaurant between 1980 and 2017. According to the diversity principle and individual optimized principle, DT and logit were selected as basic learning algorithms for the voting ensemble of business failure prediction. Three models, including an entire period (EP) model, an economic downturn (ED) model, and an economic expansion (EE) model, were developed by using WEKA 3.9. The prediction accuracy of the models were 88.02% for the EP model, 80.81% for the ED model, and 87.02 % for the EE model. While the EE model revealed the market capitalization, operating cash flow after interest and dividends (OCFAID), cash conversion cycle (CCC), return on capital employed (ROCE), accumulated retained earnings, stock price, and Tobin’s Q as significant variables, the ED model exposed quite different variables such as OCFAID, KZ index, stock price, and CCC. The EP model combined most of the variables from two sub-divided models except for Tobin’s Q, stock price, and debt to equity (D/E) ratio. The contribution of the paper is twofold. First, this is the first study to comprehensively evaluate the financial and market-driven variables in the context of predicting restaurant failure, especially during economic recessions. This research has employed several accounting-based measures, market-based variables, and a macro-economic factor to improve the relevance and effectiveness of prediction models. And second, by using an ensemble model with a DT, it has improved both the interpretability of the results and the prediction accuracy.

This paper develops a discrete‐time epidemiological model to characterize the spread of economic deterioration across sectors in the United States for the period 1952–2015. It is the first model to apply an epidemiological approach to consider such spread using macroeconomic Flow of Funds data. By extending the usual one‐period Markov model to a two‐period setting, we incorporate the possibility that an initial slow growth period may either continue further or improve such that further economic deterioration is averted. The estimated model can be used to classify more versus less contagious sectors and identify their channels of transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impact of economic downturns on leisure life, using the Chinese General Social Survey data from 2010 to 2015. The results show that economic downturns significantly decrease individuals' time allocated to leisure activities. Specifically, participation in educational activities increases during economic downturns, while participation in social interaction and entertainment does not change. We also find that economic downturns significantly reduce the average frequency of individuals' participation in active entertainment activities (e.g. reading, participating in cultural activities, listening to music at home, participating in physical exercise, watching live sports games, and doing handwork), but do not significantly affect the average frequency of individuals' participation in passive entertainment activities (e.g. watching TV or DVD at home, watching movies in a cinema, shopping, gathering with relatives, gathering with friends, and surfing the Internet). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effects of economic downturns on regional inequalities. In a sample of 25 OECD countries for 1990–2014 period, we show that economic downturns are associated with a significant and long-lasting reduction in regional inequalities. Expansionary fiscal policy as well as higher share of the European development (cohesion) funds facilitate the response of lagging regions to negative nation-wide shocks, contributing to further stimulate the reduction in regional disparities. Additional evidence suggests that the effect of downturns tends to be larger in economies with a higher initial level of regional disparities in unemployment and human capital endowment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: How are economic downturns and suicide related? Objective: This study examines the link between economically driven austerity measures implemented during a recent economic downturn—the Greek debt crisis—and suicide for the population as a whole, as well as for men and women separately. Methods: Utilizing a 50‐nation panel containing annual suicide counts and population demographics for the years 1995–2015 from the World Health Organization's Mortality archive, the analysis employs a synthetic control design, a quasi‐experimental approach that allows us to causally model the relationship between Greece's International Monetary Fund‐imposed austerity measures and suicide, something that has hampered prior research efforts. Results: Findings show austerity policies corresponded with increased suicide rates in Greece for the population as a whole and for men and women. Robustness tests confirm these results. Conclusions: We discuss the implications of the findings for the current economic crisis associated with the COVID‐19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The political budget cycle (PBC) literature argues that governments expand deficits in election years. However, what happens when an economic downturn is expected? Will the government allow the deficit to expand even further, or will it resort to spending cuts and tax increases? When voters expect less than full automatic stabilization, our model shows that opportunistic government behavior leads to smaller deficits, thereby responding procyclically to expected downturns. Panel data evidence for 74 democracies covering the period 2000-2016 robustly supports the theoretical procyclicality prediction. Moreover, expected downturns remain significant when other context-conditional PBC effects are included in the empirical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After years following the breakdown of the Great Recession in Europe, crisis-driven urban shrinkage can be adequately investigated considering changes over time in selected demographic indicators, with a specific focus on migration. Using official statistics and a literature review, the present study documents the inherent demographic decline in metropolitan Athens (Greece) as a response to economic stagnation after a long-lasting expansion. The empirical results of our study delineate metropolitan shrinkage in Southern Europe as a process associated with complex socioeconomic conditions leading to (possibly counterintuitive) demographic outcomes as far as migration trends are concerned. Recession has determined unsustainable economic conditions especially for non-native population segments, promoting both class and ethnic segregation. The negative migration balance in the 2010s led to an intense population decline hitting settlements made already demographically fragile because of low fertility and aging. Athens became a sort of ‘migrant trap’, being progressively unattractive for incoming migration flows—both internal and international—and losing an increasingly high number of non-native residents settling in the area, especially during the ‘gold’ decade of the 2004 Olympics. A sudden reduction in immigration rates reflected both economic (recession) and non-economic (population aging, fertility reduction, and childbearing postponement) factors, causing an incipient shrinkage after secular urban growth. The empirical results of our study add to the traditional literature on ‘industrial cities shrinkage’ in Europe and contribute to (re)formulate short- and medium-term development scenarios in large agglomerations, shedding further light on the role of migration in crisis-driven processes of urban decline in Mediterranean Europe.

The relationship between crime and the rapid growth and industrialization associated with resource‐based booms in large boomtowns is well‐documented. This study focuses on changes in police‐reported crime and perceptions of crime and disorder in a region experiencing a mini‐boom after the boom subsides. Analyses of survey results of 1,336 respondents living in oil‐impacted and non‐impacted communities in southeastern Saskatchewan reveal several noteworthy differences between these two groups. Inconsistent with prior research, respondents in the oil‐impacted region were less fearful of being victimized than their counterparts in non‐impacted communities and did not believe that a lack of law enforcement was a problem. Our analyses also revealed that the economic downturn after oil prices and production plunged was associated with significant decreases in rates of reported crime, crime severity, and traffic collisions. Implications for establishing a more comprehensive theory of the boom‐crime relationship and future research are discussed. Key Messages: Respondents reported that oil extraction was good for their community and they believed their communities could manage the boom.Respondents in oil‐impacted communities generally had equivalent or more favourable perceptions of police effectiveness than residents of non‐impacted communities.Respondents in the oil‐impacted jurisdictions expressed less fear of crime than those from the non‐impacted communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of fertility trends along urban gradients contributes to assess socio‐demographic change at larger scales and the new geography of metropolitan growth at smaller scales. At larger scales, urban fertility was systematically lower than rural fertility; at smaller scales, suburbs were found to have higher fertility than central districts and the neighbouring rural areas. However, fertility divides have rarely been re‐contextualised in a long‐term perspective, considering the influence of exogenous factors that change over time with urban cycles. Assuming that spatial fertility variations are contextual to the development stage of a given region, the present study goes beyond the traditional 'urban‐suburban‐rural' divide and provides a long‐term vision that integrates small‐scale fertility variations and city life cycles. The study investigates spatial trends in a fertility index along a cycle from urbanisation to re‐urbanisation in a low‐fertility European context (Athens, Greece) using a multi‐scale analysis framework. The empirical findings of this study demonstrate that rural fertility was systematically lower than urban fertility apart from a short time interval (1950s). Fertility in urban locations was the highest during earlier stages of urbanisation. In suburban locations, fertility increased during late suburbanisation, stabilising (or declining slightly) with counter‐urbanisation. Re‐urbanisation was associated with a greater spatial heterogeneity in fertility rates. By documenting a differential response of fertility to urban cycles, our study re‐frames the relationship between natural population dynamics and metropolitan transitions, concluding that regional fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socio‐economic forces underlying a given urban model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) is a serious violation of women's human rights and a dominant chronic global public health problem. Although it is suspected that epidemic-induced economic downturns have fueled the IPV, enough empirical literature are not available to make a consensus. Against this backdrop, the present study has attempted to explore the prevalence and associated factors of IPV amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The study has included Bangladesh as the study area and collected data from married women who lived with her intimate partner. Total of 605 women were reached and 84.30% (510) women, aged 16–45 with mean age 30.12 (±6.27) years, provided their consent and required information. The study has employed the translated version of WHO multi-country study tools to screen the IPV. Results: This cross-sectional study has found the prevalence of IPV about 45.29%, where 44.12% are emotionally abused, 15.29% physically, 10.59% sexually, and 19.22% are abused either physically or sexually. The study has found that types of marriage, area of residence, women's employment status, husband's age and level of education, family income status, and pandemic induced economic downturns were the associated factors of intimate partner violence amid the pandemic. Limitations: Self-reported cross-sectional study has some methodological limitations, and the present study is not free from them. Conclusions: The study contributes to the existing literature by highlighting the associated factors of IPV amid the pandemic, which will help to make preventive policy.

Objective: To test whether monthly declines in aggregate employment precede a rise in African American psychiatric-related ED visits (PREDVs) relative to white visits among low-income, working-age populations., Design: This study used repeated cross-sectional time series data for 6.7 million PREDVs among African Americans and white individuals from the State Emergency Department Database in 48 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) across four states (Arizona, California, New York, New Jersey) from 2006 to 2011. MSA-level monthly employment data were obtained from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome was specified as the race of a PREDV (African American = 1, white = 0). The exposure was operationalized as monthly percent change in MSA-level aggregate employment lagged by 0 to 3 months. Analysis included logistic regressions with county, month and year fixed effects, and clustered standard errors to examine the relation between odds of an African American PREDV (relative to white) following 0 to 3 months lag of MSA-level aggregate employment change., Findings: Logistic regression results indicate that the odds of PREDVs for publicly insured, working-age African Americans (relative to white individuals) increase 3 months after ambient employment decline (OR: 0.994, 95% CI: [0.990 0.998])., Conclusion: Economic downturns may marginally increase psychiatric help-seeking in EDs among publicly insured (low-income), working-age African Americans relative to white individuals. Findings from this study may contribute to the theoretical understanding of dynamic drivers of racial disparities in psychiatric ED visits., Competing Interests: The author declares that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Singh.)

Whether to bid on construction work is a traditional question that is often challenged in different economic situations. What will the decision factors be when contractors have to struggle to achieve growth in economic downturns? Since previous studies have not widely agreed with each other on this issue, this study aims to examine China's construction engineering contractors in recent "bad" years. The research findings reveal that the cluster related to expected profitability, including terms of payment, reputation of the client regarding his/her commitment to making timely payments, original price estimated by the client, profit track record for similar projects, and contract type, were the most significant determinants. The bid/no-bid decision-making process comprises three modules, including the contractor's strategies, the contractor's competency for a project, and expected competition. These results suggest that competing for survival is the dominant position of contractors in making bid/no-bid decisions in economic downturns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fertility, a key process shaping long-term population dynamics, has reflected demographic transitions and responds—more or less rapidly—to economic downturns. Assuming a non-neutral role of space on birth rates, the present study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution (1952–2018) of total fertility rate (TFR) at regional scale in Italy, a country with intense decline of births and enlarged socioeconomic divides between the wealthiest Northern regions and the most disadvantaged Southern regions. A progressive reduction of the traditional North–South fertility divide was observed in Italy since the 1980s with a rapid decline of TFR. Results of descriptive statistics and time series analysis indicate that regional fertility in Italy was increasingly associated with economic downturns. Considering the spatial response of birth rates to economic expansions and recessions, heterogeneous regional fertility trends underlie more individualistic behaviors that reflect a different propensity to childbearing in recent times. With both expansion and recession, fertility rates in Northern Italy—thanks to the contribution of internal and international migrations—were responding more rapidly to economic downturns than in Southern Italy—a disadvantaged region with a more stagnant population, emigration and aging, reverting the typical framework of the 1950s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assuming spatial fertility as contextual to the development stage of a given region, this study formulates an interpretative framework integrating small-scale fertility variations with metropolitan cycles and economic downturns. Using spatial econometrics, spatial trends in a gross fertility rate were investigated along a sequence of economic expansions and recessions, distinguishing urban, suburban, and rural settlements in 51 Greek prefectures. Suburban fertility overpassed urban fertility, being in turn higher than rural fertility in several prefectures. Urban fertility was higher with economic expansion and declined with recession. The reverse pattern was observed for suburban fertility – increasing with crisis and assuming a greater spatial heterogeneity. By documenting a differential response of fertility to economic downturns and metropolitan cycles, our work suggests that spatial fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socioeconomic forces underlying regional growth. • We test the suburban fertility hypothesis along a density gradient in Greece. • Suburban fertility systematically overpassed urban fertility, being higher than rural fertility. • Urban fertility was higher with economic expansion and declined with recession. • A differential response of fertility to economic downturns and metropolitan cycles was observed. • Spatial fertility variations are contextual to the development stage of a given region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines gender differences in optimism about the economy. We measure optimism using Swedish survey data in which respondents stated their beliefs about the country's future economic situation. We argue that this measure of optimism is preferable to common measurements in the literature since it avoids confounding individuals' economic situation with their perception of the future and it can be compared to economic indicators. In line with previous research, we find that men are more optimistic than women; however, men are also more prone to be wrong in their beliefs about the future economic situation. Furthermore, in sharp economic downturns, the gender differences in optimism disappear. This convergence in beliefs can be explained by the amount of available information on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study estimates demographic resilience in local socioeconomic systems of Southern Europe using long-term population dynamics. We assume attractive places with a continuously expanding (resident) population as ‘demographically resilient’, and locations experiencing a persistent decline of population as more fragile to external shocks. Based on these premises, a comprehensive assessment of demographic resilience in more than 1000 municipalities along the urban–rural gradient in Greece, a Mediterranean country with marked regional disparities, was carried out between 1961 and 2011. Municipalities were considered representative of homogeneous local communities, especially in rural areas. The results of non-parametric correlations suggest how basic geographical gradients (coastal–inland and urban–rural) have significantly influenced the demographic resilience of Greek municipalities. These findings outline two contrasting spatial patterns that reflect (i) continuous expansion of peri-urban local communities and (ii) a particularly intense rural shrinkage, linking depopulation to land abandonment and scarce accessibility of inland districts. While long-term population growth in Greece has progressively re-shaped the intrinsic divide in urban and rural areas, the traditional gap in central and peripheral districts is still reflected in the spatial polarization between the ‘demographically resilient’, socially dynamic coastal locations and the ‘demographically fragile’ inland, economically marginal places. These results indicate the persistence of a center–periphery model characterizing long-term settlement expansion in Greece, with spatial patterns delineating ‘resilient’ and ‘fragile’ districts based essentially on infrastructures, accessibility, and amenities.

Whether to bid on construction work is a traditional question that is often challenged in different economic situations. What will the decision factors be when contractors have to struggle to achieve growth in economic downturns? Since previous studies have not widely agreed with each other on this issue, this study aims to examine China’s construction engineering contractors in recent “bad” years. The research findings reveal that the cluster related to expected profitability, including terms of payment, reputation of the client regarding his/her commitment to making timely payments, original price estimated by the client, profit track record for similar projects, and contract type, were the most significant determinants. The bid/no-bid decision-making process comprises three modules, including the contractor’s strategies, the contractor’s competency for a project, and expected competition. These results suggest that competing for survival is the dominant position of contractors in making bid/no-bid decisions in economic downturns.

Summary Do economic downturns in the Global North undermine worker safety in the Global South? Literature suggests that bilateral trade linkages lead to the diffusion of “good” labor standards from importing countries of the Global North to exporting countries of the Global South. The crucial mechanism is the ability and willingness of importing firms to deploy their market leverage and ask for improved labor standards from their overseas suppliers. Yet, cost-cutting pressures emanating from economic downturns might lead the same importing firms to give lower priority to worker safety in their overseas supply chains. When importing firms demand price reductions, overseas suppliers might respond by reducing wages, ignoring safety regulations, and working their labor force for longer hours. The observable implication is that worker safety in the Global South may deteriorate during economic downturns in their export markets located in the Global North. We evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 83 developing countries for the period during 1980–2009, and find that economic downturns in developed country markets are associated with significant increases in non-fatal occupational injury rates in developing countries. The injury-increasing effect is more pronounced in developing countries with weak workers' rights protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]