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We study the impact of the refinancing channel of monetary policy on very small and medium-sized businesses. Using data covering the near universe of these businesses, we find that increased household refinancing reduces the probability that a business exits or exhausts its debt capacity in the calendar year, as well as 6 years after the first exposure. It also helps younger businesses maintain credit relationships. Financial factors, like business liquidity, as well as local demand dependence, amplify these effects, especially for very small businesses. These results suggest that the refinancing channel of monetary policy can have large long-run effects on local economies. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that the null or weak response of emerging market currencies to domestic monetary policy documented in the literature is the result of wide event windows. An event study with intraday data for Mexico shows that an unanticipated tightening appreciates the currency and flattens the yield curve, consistent with the evidence for advanced economies. With daily event windows, however, only the yield curve responds to monetary policy. Noise in daily exchange rate returns explains the lack of response of the currency. Such noise gives rise to a bias that declines after controlling for potential omitted variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This theoretical contribution analyzes remaining monetary policy tools and their ability to reestablish sound macroeconomic conditions in the euro area. Motivated by the observation of a lack of investment in the macroeconomy and subdued inflation, we review current monetary policy challenges and emphasize the major failure of traditional transmission channels. While interest rates and asset prices often respond to central bank tools, the effects on the real economy, specifically on investments, are often not observable. We suggest Investment Helicopter Money as a tool to directly strengthen investment and boost aggregate demand. This monetary impulse is found to offer a direct real effect without crowding-out investment or rising debt levels. Most importantly, we discuss necessary institutional arrangements and contrast the suggested tool with a simple monetary or fiscal impulse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the role of money as a means of payment, store of value and medium of exchange. I outline a number of quantitative and qualitative experiences of monetary management. Successful regimes have sprung up in a variety of surprising places, and been sustained with state (centralised) interventions. Although the link between state and money, and its standard of identity and account may be clear, particularly in earlier stages of economic development, the extent to which the state is widely felt to hold responsibility for ‘sound money’ is less clear in modern democracies, where there are many other public responsibilities implying ongoing trade‐offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implicit in fiscal policy debates is that there is a trade‐off between output and debt outcomes; stimulus is at the expense of debt, and austerity at the expense of output. This paper theoretically and empirically investigates this trade‐off through analysing the relationship between traditional output multipliers and ‘debt multipliers’ (the impact of policy on government debt). Theoretically the elasticity between the two is the marginal tax rate from movements of output in response to policy. This leads to two further hypotheses: first, if the marginal tax rate in the private sector is higher than that in the public sector, changes in government spending will result in a larger impact on debt than changes in taxes; and second, ‘fiscal free lunches’ are possible with recent estimates of the output multiplier. Indeed, empirically we find that tax revenues increase from exogenous tax cuts when the response of output is high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest rates may remain low and fall to their effective lower bound (ELB) often. As a result, quantitative easing (QE), in which central banks expand their balance sheet to lower long‐term interest rates, may complement policy approaches focused on adjustments in short‐term interest rates. Simulation results using a large‐scale model (FRB/US) suggest that QE does not improve economic performance if the steady‐state interest rate is high, confirming that such policies were not advantageous from 1960 to 2007. However, QE can offset a significant portion of the adverse effects of the ELB when the equilibrium real interest rate is low. These improvements in economic performance exceed those associated with moderate increases in the inflation target. Active QE is primarily required when nominal interest rates are near the ELB, pointing to benefits within the model from QE as a secondary tool while relying on short‐term interest rates as the primary tool. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heating debate about increasing income inequality forces monetary policy makers and academia to (re‐)assess the nexus between (unconventional) monetary policy and inequality. We use a VAR framework to unveil the distributional effects of monetary policy and the role of redistribution in six advanced economies. While all of them experience an increase in Gini coefficients of gross income due to an expansionary monetary policy shock, only countries with relatively little redistribution display a significant response of net income inequality as well. To examine the underlying transmission channels we take a closer look at the sources of income, i.e. labor and capital income. Our findings suggest that the disproportional surge in capital income is the driving force behind the increase in net income inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global financial integration intensified in the period leading up to the Great Financial Crisis, as was witnessed by the growth of cross-border banking, capital flows, and gross external capital positions. For small, open economies (SOEs) that have lifted restrictions on capital movements, global financial integration seems to have undermined the scope for independent monetary policy, even if these countries had adopted a flexible exchange rate regime. Monetary policy transmission was weakened through the interest rate channel, as long-term rates in SOEs became increasingly correlated with long rates in large, advanced countries. The exchange rate channel was unstable, however, with exchange rates diverging from fundamentals as uncovered interest rate parity failed to hold over relevant periods and capital flows were volatile. These tendencies can contribute to monetary and financial instability when they interact badly with other economic and financial risks that can face small, open, and financially integrated economies. This was the case in Iceland. A fundamental rethinking of policy frameworks and tools has been underway in SOEs in the wake of the crisis. Potential policy instruments include foreign exchange intervention, enhanced prudential rules on foreign exchange risks, macroprudential tools, better alignment of fiscal and monetary policy, and even selective capital flow management tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current account ( CA) dispersion within European Union ( EU) Member States has been increasing progressively since the 1990s. Interestingly, the persistent deficits in many peripheral countries have not been accompanied by a significant growth process able to stimulate a log run rebalancing as neoclassical theory predicts. To shed light on the issue, this paper investigates the determinants of Eurozone CA imbalances, focusing on the role played by financial integration. The analysis considers two samples of 22 OECD and 15 EU countries, three time horizons corresponding to various steps in European integration, different control variables and several panel econometric methods. The results suggest that within the EU group of countries financial integration contributed to explain the CA deterioration in the peripheral countries especially in the post- EMU period creating an asymmetric behaviour within the EMU. From a financial stability perspective, this 'divergence' could hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy. By reducing the apparent benefits of participating in the monetary union, it also raises the risk of a break-up. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial crisis that started in the U.S. had an immediate spillover to the rest of the world financial markets. Next, a decrease in real economic output throughout the developed world occurred simultaneously with high bailout costs for the salvaging of banks and other financial institutions. This vicious combination was at the core of the bank-sovereign interdependence and the sovereign debt crisis of the eurozone. As early as 2008, the G20 announced a thorough global reform agenda with an aim to tackle the root causes of the crises and to transform the system of global financial regulation. Some important reform steps have been made; still, more than six years on, the job is not finished. Where are we in terms of global financial reform, and are we close to creating a more secure global financial system significantly less prone to crisis and bailouts with taxpayers' money? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considered as an axiomatic basis of classical, neoclassical, and monetarist theories, the long-run money neutrality assumption does not always seem to be verified. Indeed, in our view, the money, in the sense of M2, can constitute a long-run channel of growth transmission. Thus, this paper examines the long-term relationship among money supply (M2), income (GDP), and prices (CPI). The subprime crisis in 2007 has shown that the demand for money does not only meet motives of transaction, precaution, and speculation but also of fictional or quasi-fictional future demands due to the fact that they are created without real counterparts. The capacity of production systems in developed countries to respond to increases in money supply by creating more wealth, involves the assumption of money neutrality in the long-run. However, in developing countries, the excess of money supply may lead to inflation trends. The present study has confirmed the long-term non-neutrality of money supply in the USA, and its neutrality in Gabon and Morocco. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article tackles the issue of the transitory effects on growth of prices and the main methods for the calculation of monetary policy relevant inflation in inflation targeting countries. In order to have an indicator which would capture the medium term inflation pressures, several measures of core inflation are considered. Besides that this article mentions the main advantages and disadvantages of the different measures of medium term inflation pressures. Most of the central banks which are implementing the inflation targeting regime are using core inflation indicators based on the exclusion of certain components, however there are several central banks which are using statistical measures of core inflation such as the trimmed mean and weighted median. This article also describes the existing core inflation indicators as well as the main features of the trimmed mean and weighted median for the Republic of Moldova. Even though the obtained indicators of core inflation have different values, they have similar trajectories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses in inflation targeting in Colombia from 2002-2012 with a focus on the Central bank of Colombia. Topics include the characteristics of countries using inflation targeting as a means for monetary policy, an overview of the authors' findings using an open economy policy model for the economy of Colombia, and a historical background on Colombia's state before the inflation targeting.

This paper develops a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and search-matching frictions to study the implications of exchange rate pass-through for monetary policy in emerging countries. I find that, with complete exchange rate pass-through, the optimal policy rule features unemployment targeting as well as inflation targeting. However, the welfare gain from responding to unemployment fluctuations diminishes as the rate of exchange rate pass-through to import prices decreases. With low exchange rate pass-through, the optimal monetary policy is strict inflation targeting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A coherent method to measure the effectiveness of a monetary policy improves the monetary authority’s management capacity and renders the possibility of applying sound policies prior to and during a crisis. The trend in employing complicated and ambiguity-bearing unconventional monetary tools in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis has increased the value of such a method. The aim of this article is to introduce a coherent and consistent monetary policy evaluation method for Turkey. Accordingly, we suggest that innovations in the spread between overnight interest rates and Treasury auction interest rates are informative for exchange rate, output, and prices. Empirical evidence for this identification reveals that positive innovation in spread (implying a tight monetary policy measure) decreases output temporarily, permanently decreases prices, and appreciates local currency. This result is also robust to alternative specifications. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The dominant governance model of the New Labour years was that of partnerships. For some, the collaborative arrangements that sought to join-up government represented the ideals of innovation, inclusion and efficiency. The extent to which these values outweigh the perceived problems (slow decision making, lack of clear impact) is now being tested in the absence of area- or initiative-based funding. If partnerships were a valuable model for local governance, one might expect to see them survive the withdrawal of funding. If they represented a necessary burden in order to access resources, one might expect to see them disappear rapidly in straightened times. This paper reviews the experience of partnerships as a form of local governance in the current austere climate. It reviews evidence from a range of partnerships, including Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs), their constituent 'blocks' and New Deal for Communities (NDC) partnerships. Taking forward the characterisations developed in a previous paper, the authors ask: What has become of the relationships in which so much was invested? Do those relationships endure, perhaps in different institutional settings? Or were they really little more than the 'temporary suppression of mutual loathing in the interests of mutual greed'? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global turn to austerity is the prevailing feature of fiscal policy adopted by different governments around the world. In the second instalment and concluding part to a special issue, this collection of papers examines the empirical challenges (and opportunities) associated with regeneration practice in an era of austerity. It combines analysis, insights and opinions of those negotiating regeneration challenges, dilemmas and choices on a daily basis with those of the critical research community. This enables the collection of works to provide complementary perspectives of how regeneration is presently conceived, how it is practised and how it is lived and experienced. Drawing on a diverse compilation of empirical settings, papers variously examine policy contradictions, practical issues and alternative modes of working; all have some important conceptual implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to observe the effect of fiscal and monetary policy actions on the Iranian economy. The famous St. Louis equation, an econometric model with lagged independent variables, is the key model for this study. Interestingly, the findings are converse to what scholars found when examining Western countries, especially the United States. With regard to Iran's case, monetary policy is much less effective than fiscal policy in stimulating permanent economic growth. It is suggested that government interference is the reason. Furthermore, these findings support the equation's general validity and its application, due to its parsimonious construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the Federal Reserve's, the Bank of England's, and the Bank of Japan's responses to house prices. We show that generalized method of moments estimates of a Taylor rule augmented with house prices are biased and dispersed. We then use full-information methods and estimate the policy rule together with a VAR for the nonpolicy variables. These estimates are also biased. We propose an alternative approach and estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model embedded with a monetary rule with a direct response to house prices. We find that house prices played a separate role in the reaction functions of these central banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I characterize optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic New Keynesian model when nominal interest rates may occasionally hit the zero lower bound. The benevolent policymaker controls the short-term nominal interest rate and the level of government spending. Under discretionary policy, accounting for fiscal stabilization policy eliminates to a large extent the welfare losses associated with the presence of the zero bound. Under commitment, the gains associated with the use of the fiscal policy tool remain modest, even though fiscal stabilization policy is part of the optimal policy mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyses the macroeconomic impact of the loss of autonomous monetary policy after the euro adoption in Poland. Using a two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages, we find that the euro adoption will have a noticeable impact on the magnitude of economic fluctuations. In particular, the volatility of output, interest rate, consumption and employment is expected to increase while the volatility of inflation should decrease. Also, in order to quantify the effect of the euro adoption, we compute the welfare effect of this monetary policy change. Our findings suggest that the welfare cost is not large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past few years there had been numerous debates on the subject of 2008' RON speculative attack. This was leading to many articles and commentaries being written, by both academic specialists and banking experts, all of which focusing on 2008' NBR's monetary policies undertaken actions and their subsequent effects on the local money markets. However, none of these papers was answering to the basic questions of what, how and why really happened on the interbank and money exchange markets those days. We will be emphasizing herewith some insights to these questions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we investigate the comparative properties of empirically estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007), and Taylor (1993a). Although these models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly similar economic impacts of unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. However, optimized monetary policy rules differ across models and lack robustness. Model averaging offers an effective strategy for improving the robustness of policy rules. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates monetary policy transmission in the Balkans in the 21st century. In order to analyse the reaction of output and prices to a shock in monetary policy (defined as an increase in the interest rate), this study employs structural vector auto regression approach. The obtained impulse responses suggest that monetary policy in the six Balkan countries under investigation is not effective in influencing output and prices, which points towards a very limited use of monetary policy in the overall conduct of economic policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that Keynes's treatment of economic fluctuations and monetary policy in the General Theory is still relevant after 75 years. His treatment of severe economic crises provides considerable insight into the possibility of crises emanating from financial markets, and for understanding how financial disturbances may have real economic effects. Keynes's insights into the potential limitations of using monetary policy to deal with periods of crisis and how these limitations may be addressed are also shown to be relevant to the recent global financial crisis. The paper also argues that the General Theory has insights to offer on the use of Taylor rules and on the possibility of addressing persistent unemployment. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The aim of the paper is to emphasize the importance of the central bank's alternative strategies for macroeconomic equilibrium. Using a constrained maximization process founded on a behavioural equation, we underscore the relevance, for monetary policy, of the assumptions adopted by policymakers regarding how the economic system works. In particular, under a flexible exchange rate regime, the relevant hypotheses are those concerning the supply curve. Under a fixed exchange rate regime the relevant assumptions are those related to the maintenance of the currency agreements and to the internal sustainability of an interest rate setting policy. We demonstrate that these hypotheses define the objective pursued and the strategy followed. Furthermore, if they do not coincide with the actual characteristics of the market, the adjustment dynamics of aggregate income and inflation do not allow convergence toward equilibrium. We use the tools of New Consensus Macroeconomics to discuss the implications of the model and to offer an enhanced analytical framework for teaching intermediate macroeconomics without necessarily adopting the mainstream hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank's open-economy medium-sized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports our view that the model parameters may be regarded as unaffected by the monetary policy specification. We discuss how monetary policy, and in particular the choice of output gap measure, affects the transmission of shocks. Finally, we use the model to assess the recent Great Recession in the world economy and how its impact on the economic development in Sweden depends on the conduct of monetary policy. This provides an illustration on how Rames incoporates large international spillover effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an analysis of the regulatory system of financial systems, with a focus on different instruments for assessment and management of financial crises. It is the author's view that a reform in the financial regulations should include a broader framework, which is called macro-prudential rules. Instruments discussed include monetary policy, asset-backed financing, and collateral security.

The article offers information on the immunity of foreign central banks in conformance to the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act of 1976 (FSIA). It discusses the role of central banks in stabilizing currency markets and emergency assistance impacting global economy. It presents several issues raised against the sovereign governments and central banks.

This paper contrasts the time-series properties of aggregate and disaggregate UK inflation. While aggregate inflation is found to be non-stationary, unit root rejection frequencies are increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Structural break analysis suggests that structural shifts in monetary policy could alter inflation persistence. Additionally, panel evidence indicates that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for sectoral inflation rates. Finally, we compare the persistence properties of UK inflation, finding statistically significant differences between aggregate and disaggregate series. Our analysis suggests that aggregation matters, which has important implications for econometric analysis and the conduct of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The Lagos-Wright model--a monetary model in which pairwise meetings alternate in time with a centralized meeting--has been extensively analyzed, but always using particular trading protocols. Here, trading protocols are replaced by two alternative notions of implementability: one that allows only individual defections and one that also allows cooperative defections in meetings. It is shown that the first-best allocation is implementable under the stricter notion without taxation if people are sufficiently patient. And, if people are free to skip the centralized meeting, then lump-sum taxation used to pay interest on money does not enlarge the set of implementable allocations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the effect of fiscal policy on sovereign risk spreads and investigate whether the interaction of fiscal variables with political institutions affect financial markets. Using panel data from emerging market countries, we find that revenue-based adjustment lowers spreads more than spending-based adjustment. Financial markets also react to the composition of spending. Cuts in current spending lower spreads more than cuts in investment. We show that debt-financed spending increases sovereign risk, while tax-financed spending lowers spreads, suggesting that international investors prefer the latter. Further, we find evidence that financial markets’ reaction to fiscal policy depends on political institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the Fisher hypothesis using Livingston survey data on inflation expectations. We propose a simple model for the ex-ante real interest rate where the standard deviation of survey forecasts is used to correct for heteroskedasticity. The findings of this paper contradict earlier studies. We find supportive evidence for the Fisher hypothesis that the nominal interest rate and expected inflation move one-for-one both in the short and the long run. Our results also suggest that the change of US monetary policy does not have significant effect on the dynamics of the ex-ante real interest rate such as previous work assumes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on econometric model which determines the character of money supply affected by the development of real gross domestic product (GDP) in European countries. Topics discussed include endogenous relationship between the exchange rate regime and the money supply; identification of a causal relationship from the standard equation of exchange; and difference between short- and long-run causality.

The article presents forecasts on the direction of economic growth for member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2014. Based on the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM), the ratios of government debt to gross domestic product (GDP) would be higher in all countries with budget deficit problem. This outlook would be influenced by possible break-up of the Eurozone, monetary policy and the pace of economic growth in emerging economies.

The article presents economic forecasts for the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand, India, Russia, European Union (EU) countries in 2014. Based on data from the National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM) and National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NEISR), majority of these countries will experience a weakened gross domestic product (GDP) because of indebtedness, monetary and fiscal policies and narrow economic base.