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Die anhaltenden Probleme bei der Beschaffung von Vorleistungen belasten die deutsche Wirtschaft. Drei Viertel der Unternehmen berichten derzeit von Produktionsausfällen von im Durchschnitt 7%. Erst ab dem zweiten Halbjahr 2022 wird sich die Situation deutlich verbessern. Aber auch im Jahr 2023 rechnet noch knapp die Hälfte der privatwirtschaftlichen Unternehmen mit Ausfällen. Neben den fehlenden Vorleistungen ist vor allem der Fachkräftemangel eine permanente Produktionsbremse. Ongoing problems with the procurement of intermediates are weighing on the German economy. Three-quarters of companies are currently reporting production losses averaging 7%. The situation will not improve significantly until the second half of 2022. But even in 2023, just under half of private-sector companies still expect shortfalls. In addition to the lack of intermediates, the shortage of skilled workers is a permanent brake on production.

This study investigates the possible Granger-causal relations between stock price volatility and dividend dynamics on the one hand, and speculation and unemployment on the other. The analysis is carried out for the US over the period 1982-2018. Stock price volatility is calculated in terms of “conditional” volatility and in terms of the so-called “Shiller ratio”, while speculative trading is expressed as “scalping” activities. We find that there is a causal positive relation from speculation to stock price volatility. Furthermore, we show that there is an inverse causal relationship ranging from stock prices to unemployment, while there is no causal relationship between dividends and unemployment. These results corroborate the empirical analyses by Shiller and other authors which deny the traditional Present Value Model (PVM), provide new elements on the possible determinants of stock price volatility, and offer new interpretations of the potential links between the stock market and macroeconomic dynamics. JEL codes: C10; E39; G15, PSL Quarterly Review, V. 73, N. 293 (2020): June

We find that critical factors affecting real estate project decisions can vary while market changes in the city of Ahmedabad have led to the majority of landmark buildings facing obsolesce, redevelopment and spatial redundancy. Case studies can assist in data collection in the cultural context and accommodate indirect observations of the variables analyzed in the early stages of research (Teegavarapu & Summers, 2008; Rowley, 2002). Decisions have led to capital losses for some, while bringing about profitable opportunities for developers who take timely risks.We also find that the land pooling technique used by the State in city development has successfully promoted land banking for public purpose but has also contributed to speculative land price appreciation. AHP rankings show that the surveyed practicing developers prioritized location factors such as neighborhood character and availability of land above land use zones and land auctions. Among project factors, FAR (Floor Area Ratio), abutting road width and road frontage of the land ranked higher compared to building design. In the professional practice category, the availability of finance, the timing of project announcement and past project experience of the developers ranked higher compared to brand value and speculation.

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier AS Arkeologisk museum, Universitetet i Stavanger gjennomførte en arkeologisk undersøkelse av Måganeset 4, et aktivitetsområde fra steinalder (Askeladden id 264210), i tidsrommet 6.7 – 10.8.2020. Bakgrunnen var planlegging av ny E39 på strekning mellom Røyskår i Agder og Ålgård i Rogaland i regi av Nye Veier AS. Lokaliteten lå på Måganeset gnr. 3 bnr. 19 i Gjesdal kommune, og var etter registreringen antatt å ha bruksfaser fra tidlig- til mellomneolitikum. Lokaliteten ble avdekket for hånd. Totalt ble det gravd 83 kvm i kvadranter på 50 x 50 cm, i inntil fem nivåer av 10 cm til å få en oversikt over den horisontale og vertikale funndistribusjonen. Det ble ikke påvist spor etter forhistoriske strukturer som ildsteder, kokegroper eller stolpehull. Det ble gjort 5254 funn på lokaliteten under utgravingen. Funnmaterialet er nesten utelukkende av littisk karakter, og flint er det dominerende råstoffet. Det var også mindre innslag av bergkrystall, bergart og pimpstein. Funnmaterialet framstår som enfaset og kan dateres typologisk til første halvdel av yngre steinalder (neolitikum). Av diagnostiske funn var det tre A1-spisser. I tillegg ble det samlet inn fire kullprøver og to brente hasselnøttskall. Tre radiologiske dateringer viser til aktivitet i tidlig- og mellomneolitikum, ca. 3700-2400 cal. BC. Dette samsvarer godt med funnmaterialet og gir derfor en god indikasjon på hvilke perioder lokaliteten var i bruk. Lokaliteten er tolket som en boplass for ett eller flere kortvarige opphold. Funnmateriale og plassering i landskapet antyder aktivitet knyttet til jakt og/eller fiske.

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier AS Arkeologisk museum/Universitetet i Stavanger gjennomførte i perioden 09.09-08.11.2019 en arkeologisk undersøkelse av tre steinalderlokaliteter (Askeladden id260567, id260568, id2605697), beliggende på Måganeset gnr. 3 bnr. 19 i Gjesdal kommune. Bakgrunnen for undersøkelsen var planlegging av ny E39 på strekningen mellom Røyskår i Agder og Ålgård i Rogaland. De tre lokalitetene ble avdekket maskinelt, og det ble gravd manuelt 108 kvm i 1-2 mekaniske lag på 10 cm dybde. Totalt ble det samlet inn 1146 funn fra de tre lokalitetene, hovedsakelig av flint. Funn av tangespisser av type A på Måganeset lokalitet 1 og 2 gir en typologisk datering til første halvdelav yngre steinalder. Øvrige artefakter, som skrapere, flekker eller avslag med retusj og bipolare kjerner forekommer i alle faser av steinalderen. På Måganeset lokalitet 3 ble det ikke funnet noen typologisk diagnostiske funn, men sannsynlig bruksfase er seinmesolitikum/tidligneolitikum. Funnmateriale og plassering i landskapet viser at aktiviteten knyttet til jakt, kanskje også fiske, i første halvdel av neolitikum.

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier I løpet av sommeren og høsten 2021 foretok Arkeologisk Museum, UiS, geofysiske undersøkelser med georadar i Bjerkreim kommune, i forbindelse med arkeologiske registreringer knyttet til prøveprosjektet Arkeologi på nye veier. Prøveprosjektet er knyttet til bygging av ny E39 mellom Ålgård i Rogaland og Røyskår i Agder. Undersøkelsene tok sted i Vikeså, Uadal og Holmen, fordelt på 12 områder. Det poengteres at ingen av de undersøkte områdene inneholdt allerede kjente kulturminner, og at undersøkelsen i hovedsak er en registrering- med formål å søke etter potensial for kulturhistoriske og arkeologiske strukturer som er fredet iht. kulturminneloven. De undersøkte områdene bestod av dyrket mark, med unntak av Holmen, hvor terrenget kan beskrives som beitemark. Ca. 120 000 m2 ble undersøkt med georadar, og undersøkelsen er bestilt av Nye Veier, i samarbeid med Rogaland Fylkeskommune og Arkeologisk Museum, UiS. Innsamling av data med georadar i felt foregikk over sommeren og høsten 2021, og 2022, parallelt med arkeologiske registreringer som ble utført i området i samme tidsrom. Målet med undersøkelsen var å bruke geofysikk på planområdene før de ble undersøkt med tradisjonelle arkeologiske registreringsmetoder. Etter innsamling ble dataen prosessert og visualisert i dybdeskiver og deretter tolket. Det ble konkludert med at flere menneskeskapte strukturer var synlig i radardataene, men kun et fåtall av disse var av arkeologisk interesse. Et stort antall av strukturene kan knyttes til nyere tids jordarbeid. Et unntak er ved Holmen, hvor flere synlige strukturer kan knyttes til et forhistorisk røysfelt og Vikeså, hvor noen strukturer kan knyttes til et eldre gårdstun (Gamle Svela). Flere av strukturene oppdaget under den geofysiske undersøkelsen ble senere identifisert og enten verifisert eller avskrevet med tradisjonelle arkeologiske registreringsmetoder.

Background E39, an HLA‐A2‐restricted, immunogenic peptide derived from the folate‐binding protein (FBP), is overexpressed in multiple malignancies. We conducted a phase I/IIa trial of the E39 + GM‐CSF vaccine with booster inoculations of either E39 or E39′ (an attenuated version of E39) to prevent recurrences in disease‐free endometrial and ovarian cancer patients(pts). Here, we present the final 24‐month landmark analysis. Patients and methods HLA‐A2 + patients receiving E39 + GM‐CSF were included in the vaccine group (VG), and HLA‐A2‐ pts (or HLA‐A2 + patients refusing vaccine) were followed as the control group (CG). VG group received 6 monthly inoculations as the primary vaccine series (PVS) and were randomized to receive either E39 or E39′ booster inoculations. Demographic, safety, immunologic, and disease‐free survival (DFS) data were collected and evaluated. Results Fifty‐one patients were enrolled; 29 in the VG and 22 in the CG. Fourteen patients received

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier I tidsrommet 15.06 – 04.09 2020 foretok Arkeologisk Museum, UiS, en utgravning på Opstad, Kyllingstad, gnr. 31, bnr. 14, 26, Gjesdal kommune. Lokaliteten er plassert like øst for nåværende E39, i skrånet terreng preget av myr, våtmark og beitelandskap. En lokalitet på 12 200m2 ble her avdekket og undersøkt (Askeladden id: 265561). Bakgrunnen for undersøkelsen er planene om en ny E39 mellom Lyngdal vest og Ålgård, og den er et ledd av prøveprosjekt Arkeologi på Nye Veier. Aktivitetssporene ble registret i 2019 og undersøkt i 2020. Arkeologisk museum undersøkte og dokumenterte i 2020 tre anlegg for jernutvinning- og produksjon som inkluderte hele prosessen fra røsting til smiing av jernet, datert til førromersk jernalder og romertid, og en steinalderlokalitet, 27 m2, med ca. 300 funn som dateres til mellommesolittisk tid, 8000-4000 f.Kr.

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier I tidsrommet 4. mai og 12. juni 2020 foretok Arkeologisk Museum, UiS, en utgravning på gården Haraland, gnr. 30 bnr. 2, -6, Gjesdal kommune. Lokaliteten er lokalisert i dyrket mark like nordøst for nåværende E39. Det ble undersøkt aktivitetsspor fra forhistorisk tid (Askeladden id: 265544). Utgravningen har prosjektnavnet Haraland II. Bakgrunnen for undersøkelsen er planene om ny E39 mellom Lyngdal vest og Ålgård, og den er et ledd av prøveprosjekt Arkeologi på Nye veier. Aktivitetssporene ble registrert i 2019 og undersøkt i 2020. Det ble avdekket rundt 7 mål og målt inn 154 strukturer. Alle strukturer ble senere avskrevet som resultat av naturlige prosesser eller moderne aktivitet. Det ble funnet rester etter et kulturlag, dokumentert i to profiler. Dette laget var godt definert og viser at området har blitt brukt som beitemark i tidlig romertid og deretter dyrking i nyere tid.

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier I tidsrommet 07.09.20 – 17.09.20 foretok Arkeologisk Museum, UiS, en utgravning på gården Haraland, gnr. 30 bnr. 6, Gjesdal kommune. Alle de undersøkte lokalitetene var lokalisert like nord for nåværende E39, i bratt terreng. Tre buestillinger ble undersøkt (Askeladden id: 265604, 265620, 265622), ett driftelege (Askeladden id: 265601) og en steinstreng (Askeladden id: 265600). Bakgrunnen for undersøkelsen er en planlagt forbedring av E39 mellom Lyngdal vest og Ålgård, som ledd i prosjektet Prøveprosjekt Arkeologi på Nye Veier. En forundersøkelse foretatt av Rogaland Fylkeskommune i 2019 gav funn av utmarksminner. På den bakgrunnen utførte Arkeologisk museum en utgravning av området i 2020. Det er her snakk om kulturminner tilknyttet utmarksaktiviteter, i dette tilfellet jakt og dyrehold. Slike anlegg er vanskelig å datere sikkert, og kan være både forhistoriske og fra nyere tid. Alle de undersøkte strukturene var i relativt god stand, men av diffus karakter. Det var dårlig forhold for prøveuttak av vitenskapelige prøver grunnet mangel på egnede jordmasser. Driftelege og steinstrengen kunne ikke dateres og kan være fra nyere tid. Buestillingene antas å være forhistoriske, trolig fra eldre jernalder, da de bør ses i sammenheng med fire buestillinger på gården Bollestad noe lenger nord (Ødegaard og Hillesland in prep).

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier AS I tidsrommet 18.09-20-16.10-20 foretok Arkeologisk Museum, UiS, en utgravning av fire bogesteller / buestillinger (Askeladden ID: 265646, 265645, 265650 og 265648) og to mulige hulveier (Askeladden ID: 265636 og 265644) på gården Bollestad, gnr. 8, bnr. 19, Gjesdal kommune. Lokalitetene befant på en åsrygg, nordøst for nåværende E39. Utgravningen har prosjektnavnet Bollestad II. Bakgrunnen for undersøkelsen er en planlagt forbedring av E39 mellom Lyngdal vest og Ålgård, som ledd i prosjektet Prøveprosjekt Arkeologi på Nye Veier. Det ble gjort funn av fire buestillinger, som er steinvegger eller steinsirkler som skjuler jegere for storviltet, med dateringer fra slutten av steinalderen til romertid. Flere av buestillingene er imidlertid brukt i moderne tid, og en kan ikke se bort fra at de har vært i bruk i hele jernalder og middelalder opp til moderne tid. De fire buestillingene hadde flere bruksfaser og var mer komplekse enn antatt før oppstart av undersøkelsen. Det ble også gjort flintfunn fra slutten av steinalder (neolitikum) fra to av de undersøkte buestillingene, som, sammen med dateringen til neolitikum, kan antyde at de kan gå så langt tilbake i tid. To hulveier ble undersøkt og avskrevet da de sannsynligvis stammer fra nyere tids aktiviteter i området.

Oppdragsgiver: Nye Veier I tidsrommet 15.09.20 – 17.09.2020 foretok Arkeologisk Museum, UiS, en utgravning av en hulvei (Askeladden id: 265594) datert til jernalder og middelalder, på gården Haraland, gnr. 30 bnr. 3, Gjesdal kommune. Lokaliteten befant seg like sørvest for nåværende E39, i bratt terreng. Utgravningen har prosjektnavnet Haraland III. Bakgrunnen for undersøkelsen er en planlagt forbedring av E39 mellom Lyngdal vest og Ålgård, som ledd i prosjektet Prøveprosjekt Arkeologi på Nye Veier. Det ble gjort funn av en hulvei, som er en vei som er dannet av erosjon av lang tids ferdsel av mennesker og dyr og slik får en forsenket U-form. Slike veier var i bruk over et langt tidsrom og kan sjelden dateres direkte. Det undersøkte kulturminnet var i relativt god stand. Det ble håndgravd en 3 m lang sjakt igjennom veien på tvers og et område på 5 m2 i kanten av veien for å se på dens oppbygning. Hulveien lå i skrånende terreng, i et område som i dag brukes som beite. Veien kan være knyttet til utmarksaktiviteter eller ha vært en bindevei mellom gårder i dalen. I tillegg ble det metallsøkt langs hele veien. Vi kunne bekrefte at det var en hulvei, men det ble ikke funnet noe daterbart materiale som kunne aldersbestemme kulturminnet. Det er derfor vanskelig å si noe sikrere i henhold til når den var i bruk, annet enn at den kan brukt i både forhistorisk og historisk/nyere tid.

Introduction Peptide vaccines offer anti-tumor efficacy with very low toxicity. However, repeat stimulation with an immunogenic peptide leads to activation induced cell death (AICD), decreasing efficacy. We engineered variants of an immunogenic peptide (E39) and tested their ability to induce a robust, sustainable immune response. Methods Multiple variants of E39 were created by exchanging 1 or 2 amino acids. We tested the PBMC proliferation, cytokine production and cytolytic activity induced by each variant peptide. Results Repeated stimulation with E39 likely led to in vitro AICD, while stimulation with E39' led to T-cell proliferation with less evidence of AICD, modest cytokine production and high CTL activity. Conclusions E39' appears to be the optimal variant of E39 for inducing effective long-term immunity.

Hong Kong is one of the main economies operating a currency board system today. With its currency fixed to the U.S. dollar, the system has functioned successfully since it was restarted in 1983. The last time it faced severe challenges was during the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. However, with the comparatively large depreciation of renminbi (RMB, and sometimes referred to as Yuan) during the past two years, a rising question is how Hong Kong might be affected by a possible future crisis originating from China. In this paper, we examine the impact of RMB depreciation on Hong Kong, with a focus on three sectors of Hong Kong’s economy: foreign direct investment, external trade, and tourism.Keywords. RMB, China, Hong Kong, Asian financial crisis, FDI, Trade, Tourism, Retail sales.JEL. E39, O53.

The recent rise in populist governments has led to much work on the question "why now?". Our work takes the next logical step by asking "what next?". That is, given populists in power, what should we expect to be the economic consequences of populist regimes. To answer this, we characterize populist economic policies and argue that they generate an inverted J-curve effect, which we term a "walking stick" effect, in macro-level data, specifically GDP and inflation. To test this claim, we construct a unique data set on 13 Latin American countries from 1976 to 2012 and incorporate more modern and nuanced definitions of populism. Our contribution is both to test the walking stick claim and to present a novel dataset for studying the economic effects of populism. We find compelling evidence for our walking stick hypothesis in both GDP per capita and inflation, suggesting that the answer to "what next" is that we will see on average short-run booms followed by declines under populist regimes.

We present an experiment in which extrinsic information (signals) may generate sunspot equilibria. The underlying coordination game has a unique symmetric non-sunspot equilibrium, which is also risk-dominant. Other equilibria can be ordered according to risk dominance. We compare treatments with different salient, but extrinsic signals. By increasing the precision of private signals, we manipulate the available public information, which allows us to measure the force of extrinsic signals. We also vary the number of signals and combine public and private signals, allowing us to see how subjects aggregate available (and possibly irrelevant) information. Results indicate that sunspot equilibria emerge naturally if there are salient (but extrinsic) public signals. However, salient private signals of high precision may also cause sunspot-driven behavior, even though this is no equilibrium. The higher the precision of signals and the easier they can be aggregated, the more powerful they are in dragging behavior away from the risk-dominant to risk-dominated strategies. Sunspot-driven behavior may lead to welfare losses and exert negative externalities on agents, who do not receive extrinsic signals.

This paper investigates the macroeconomic projections of the German government since the 1970s and compares it those of the Joint Economic Forecast, which is an in-dependent forecasting institution in Germany. Our results indicate that nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the decline in Germany’s trend growth and a systematic failure to correctly anticipate recessions. We show that the German government also deviates from the projections of the Joint Economic Forecast, which in fact worsened the forecast accuracy. Finally, we find evidence that these deviations are driven by political motives.

Coastal Highway Route E39 goes all the way from outside Trondheim in the middle of Norway following the west-coast down to Kristiansand. To be totally correct the E39 continues after a ferry from Kristiansand in Norway to Hirtshals in Denmark to the city of Aahlborg in Denmark. The total length of E39 along the coast of Norway is 1100 km. Today you can drive this route in approximately 21 hours, including 7 Ferry crossings. The goal of the project “Coastal highway route E39” (also known as the “Ferry Free E39”) is to make it possible to drive the distance in 13 hours and have fixed links instead of the seven ferries. The seven fjords has a width of 1.6 to 5 km, and depth of 400–1300 m, which means that the fixed links will be bridges longer and deeper than ever before. By using technology from Norwegian off-shore industry, especially the floating concrete oil platforms, we see that it is possible to anchor a floating construction on depths up to 1500 meter below sea level (mbs). We also know that we can have floating constructions; both bridges and submerged floating bridges (tunnels) are possible. Norway already has the longest road tunnel in rock (Laerdal tunnel 24.5 km), the longest subsea tunnel (Bomlafjord 7.8 km, Ryfast 14 km under construction 2014–17, Rogfast 27 km under construction 2016-) and the deepest subsea tunnel (Eiksundtunnelen 7.77 km long, 287 mbs). The public road network in Norway consist of 92,000 km roads, 17,000 bridges in operation and 1100 road tunnels, 35 of which is subsea tunnels. Norway also has 600 harbours and 51 airports (2014). From Norwegian industry, and overseas, we have had suggestions on how to solve the crossings. Three main concepts have been taken a step further; The Floating Bridge, The submerged floating tunnel and The TLP anchoring system (Tension-leg platform). We are now working on developing the concepts, which can be used separately or in combination in the crossings. The technology is now taken to a step where we shortly are able to start tendering (“Competitive dialogue” is the most likely tender). Also in the “Coastal Highway Route E39” we have been looking at Tendering options, Energy production and consumption of the constructions and the overall economy in the project (both normal financial calculations, but also “game changer”-effects of bigger markets). 31 PhD graduates are connected to the project. At the same time the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA) have ongoing research projects on materials, extreme weather, environment, energy, traffic safety, ITS and road technology in general. The presentation will focus on the newest developments in the extreme crossings, but also mention ongoing supplementary projects/PhD-studies at the time.

Both the German federal as well as the general government recorded a surplus for the fourth time in a row in 2017. The fast consolidation after the Great Recession coincided with the transition period for the full introduction of the federal debt brake, which is sometimes interpreted as causality. At the same time Germany's economic performance is better than that of many other countries. For this reason it is nearly impossible to overrate the symbolic power of the debt brake as a seeming success story. In this paper we scrutinise the seeming success story of the debt brake. We carry out a comparative analysis of the "structural" consolidation of public finances in Germany for the period from 1991 until 2017 showing that the German debt brake is not the cause of the successful budget consolidation in Germany since 2010. The improvement of the general government finances since 2010 was smaller than in previous consolidation phases and was strongly supported by a favourable macroeconomic environment, and one-off effects. Finally, neither the general government sector nor the federal government would be in such a good fiscal shape, had the economy evolved less favourably since 2010. Without the blessing of a strong upswing Germany would hardly have become the fiscal role model for Europe and the German debt brake would not have become the blueprint for the European Fiscal Compact.

This paper studies the effects of financial speculation on commodity futures returns, using publicly available data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, aggregated by trader groups. We exploit the heteroskedasticity in the weekly data to identify exogenous variation in speculators' positions. The results suggest that idiosyncratic net long demand shocks of both index investors and hedge funds increase futures returns. They further indicate that these shocks are a relevant driver of returns, especially during periods of high speculative demand volatility. These findings confirm significant price effects of financial investments, complementing existing evidence based on disaggregated and proprietary daily data.

Artykuł prezentuje próbę empirycznej weryfikacji wskaźnika elastyczności cenowej popytu na wodę na bazie danych z dużych miast w Polsce. Informacje związane z reakcjami popytowymi odgrywają istotną rolę w procesie zrównoważonego zarządzania zaopatrzeniem w wodę. Metody dostosowania się do globalnych zmian klimatycznych również wymagają znajomości zachowań konsumentów w zakresie popytu na wodę. Badania wykorzystywały bazę złożoną z danych opisujących 100 największych miast w Polsce w okresie 2010-2014. Było to drugie badanie elastyczności cenowej popytu na wodę w Polsce a pierwsze oparte o dane z pojedynczych aglomeracji - zamiast danych zagregowanych dla całego kraju. Tak duży poziom szczegółowości kreował również pewne trudności - w skali poszczególnych miast brak jest danych o dochodach - stąd też pominięto zjawisko elastyczności dochodowej popytu na wodę. Otrzymane wyniki nie odbiegały znacząco od wcześniejszych badań realizowanych w krajach UE. This paper presents an empirical verification of the demand price elasticity for piped water in major cities in Poland - it was the main goal of the research. The information concerning the demand reaction to price changes is substantial for sustainable urban water demand. Any prediction of possible adaptation to global climate change also requires detailed information about consumer behaviour related to water consumption. This study was conducted on panel data consisting of approx. 100 largest Polish cities over the period of 5 years: 2010-2014. It was the second analysis in Poland and the first conducted on individual data from Polish agglomerations, instead of aggregated data for the whole country. Such detailed level of disaggregation has also some disadvantages - due to the lack of income data for each city - the income elasticity was skipped in the model. Finally the results were in the same range as figures obtained in other EU countries.

In Norway there are plans of a ferry-free European road E39 with crossings of eight deep and wide fjords. A newly developed bridge concept that could be used for some of these fjord-crossings is a chained floating bridge. One of the challenges for the chained floating bridge is to create a convenient shipping-lane under the bridge, where one suggestion is to connect the chained floating bridge with a single pylon cable-stayed bridge. The aim of this thesis is to design and evaluate a cable-stayed bridge in connection with a chained floating bridge. The purpose is to evaluate the feasibility of such a design by conducting a case study of the crossing of Bjørnefjorden. A design of a bridge is created for the case based on a literature study of conventional cable-stayed bridges. The bridge design is modelled, analyzed and the structural integrity is evaluated with SOFiSTiK (a finite element software for structural design) according to Eurocode. The study concludes that the concept is feasible for Bjørnefjorden by providing a possible design of a cables-stayed bridge connected to a chained floating bridge with conventional cross sections. The analysis in the thesis confirms the structural integrity of the consept. The bridge design’s main span is 300m long, it has a 25m wide steel box girder where the cables (φ140mm) are placed in two planes with a spacing of 15m along the girder. It has a 184 m high A-shaped pylon with a concrete box section from the foundation up to the girder level (+50m), to the top is a steel box (3.5x3.5m). The bridge is designed with material properties according to Eurocode, where steel class S355 and concrete C45 are used. A parametric research also verifies the design’s feasibility for other geometries of chained floating bridges - where the horizontal reactions on the cable-stayed bridge vary in a range of 107MN-242MN. The parametric research confirms that both the utilization of the cross section and the stability increases with the horizontal reaction from the chained floating bridge. The parametric study also concludes that a width of 8m between the pylon legs decreases the effect on the lower part of the pylon and the support reaction at the pylon when compared with a 12m and a 18m width. However, the average utilization of the girder, cable and steel part of the pylon increases when the 8m width is compared with a 12m or a 18m wide pylon. A fan or radial cable arrangement compared to harp design is more efficient for the cables and the displacements of the girder in Z-direction. They are however, less efficient for the bottom part of the pylon than the harp arrangement. I Norge planeras en färjefri Europaväg E39, där åtta djupa och breda fjordar ska förbindas med broar eller tunnlar. För att korsa några av fjordarna utvecklas bla. ett brokoncept med kedjeflytbro. En av utmaningarna i konceptet är att skapa en farled för fartyg under bron. Ett förslag är att koppla ihop kedjeflybron med en ”halv” snedkabelbro som har en pylon (inte två), där farleden går under huvud­spannet till snedkabelbron. Avsikten med detta examensarbete är att konstruera och utvärdera en snedkabelbro ihopkopplad med en kedjeflytbro. Syftet är att utvärdera om konceptet med snedkabelbro är genomförbart, med hjälp av en fallstudie av Bjørnefjordsförbindelsen. En konventionell design av en snedkabelbro upprättas efter fallets villkor med hjälp av en literaturstudie. Designen modelleras, analyseras och dimensioneras enligt Eurokod med analysverktyget SOFiSTiK. Slutsatsen är att konceptet med en snedkabelbro ihopkopplad med en kedjeflytbro är genomförbart då det är möjligt att designa en sådan med konventionella tvärsnitt. Analysen i rapporten bekräftar att designen har tillräcklig bärförmåga. I designen är huvudspannet 300m långt och består av en 25m bred brobalk upphängd av (φ140mm) kablar placerade i två plan var 15m. Bron har en 184m hög A-formad pylon med ett lådtvärsnitt i betong från fundament till brobalksnivån (+50m), därifrån till pylontoppen är tvärsnittet en stålbox (3.5x3.5m). Bron är dimensionerad med materialparameterar enligt Eurokod, där stålkvalitet S355 och Betong C45 har använts. En utförd parameterstudie bekräftar också konceptets genomförbarhet för andra geometrier av kedjeflytbron – där den horisontella reaktionen på snedkabelbron varierar mellan 107MN och 242MN. Parameterstudein bekräftar att både utnyttjandet av tvärsnittskapasiteten och stabiliteten ökar med den horisontella reaktionen från kedjeflytbron. Dessutom konkluderar parameterstudien att bredden 8m mellan pylonbenen minskar lasteffekten på den nedre delen av pylonen och stödreaktionen vid pylonen jämfört med bredden 12m och 18m. Däremot ökar medelutnyttjandet av tvärsnittaskapasiteten för brobalken, kablarna och ståldelen av pylonen för bredden 8m jämfört med 12m eller 18m. En radiell- eller solfjäderformad kabelkonfiguration jämfört med parallellformad design är mer effektiv för kablarna och nedböjning av brobalken. De gör däremot så att den den nedre delen av pylonen får större snittkrafter än för den parallellformade kabelkonfigurationen.

In this paper we revisit the methodological aspects of the issue of spurious cycles: using the well-established clinometric data, we apply an empirical strategy to identify spurious periodicities and cross-validate the results. The analysis of cyclical fluctuations involves numerous challenges, including data preparation and detrending. As a result, there is a risk of statistical artifacts to arise: it is known that summation operators and filtering yield a red noise alike spectral signature, amplifying lower frequencies and thus, longer periodicity, whereas detrending using differencing yields a blue noise alike spectral signature, amplifying higher frequencies and thus, shorter periodicity. In our paper we explicitly address this issue. In order to derive the stationary signals to be tested, we perform outlier adjustment, derive cycles from the series with the asymmetric band pass Christiano-Fitzgerald filter using the upper bands of the Kuznets and the Juglar cycles as cut-offs, and obtain detrended prefiltered signals by differencing the series in the absence of fractional integration. Afterwards, we simultaneously test whether the spectral densities of filtered and detrended prefiltered signals are significantly different from the spectral density of the related noise. The periodicities from the Kuznets range were not simultaneously significant, and thus are likely to be spurious; whereas ones of the Juglar and Kitchin ranges were simultaneously significant. The simultaneous significance test helps to identify spurious periodicities and the results, in general, accord with the durations of the business cycles found in other works.

It is sometimes pointed out that economic research is prone to move in cycles and react to particular events such as crises and recessions. The present paper analyses this issue through a quantitative analysis by answering two closely related research questions: (1) whether or not there are patterns in the economic literature on business cycles, and (2) whether or not these are correlated with movements in actual economic activity. To tackle these questions, a bibliometric analysis of key terms related to business cycle and crises theory is performed. In a second step, these results are confronted with data on actual economic developments in order to investigate the question of whether or not the theoretical literature follows trends and developments in economic data. Respective time series are detrended by the Kalman filter in order to estimate cycles. To determine the connection between economic activity and developments in the academic literature, a descriptive analysis is scrutinized by Granger causality tests. The paper also includes IRF analysis for quantitative assessment of the effects from economic to bibliometric variables. The results point towards a confirmation of the hypothesis of an effect of business cycles and crises in economic variables on discussions in the literature.

This paper provides new evidence for the empirical literature that investigates the presence of political cycles in fiscal policy and, more precisely, public investments in Brazil. The approach differs from most of the studies for applying the state-space modeling. The greatest benefit is to estimate the cyclical component endogenously and with greater precision. Another difference is that it considers the presence of cycles in central, state and local investments and central government capital transfers. This allows a wider picture of the general government and intergovernmental relationships. The main contributions come from the identification of qualitative differences among the political cycles of each government level - pointing to a smaller degree of direct influence of local elections as it goes from local to state and central levels - and a close relation between cycles of central government transfers and cycles of state and local governments.

On the basis of the suggestions of Friedman (1969, 1993) and Moore (1965) and considering the framework proposed by Balke and Wynne (1994, 1995), this paper evaluates whether recoveries growth depends on the characteristics of prior recessions (depth, steepness and duration) in the case of the Mexican states employment during the 2001-2003 and 2008-2009 recessions. The original models are extended to include the effects of external and fiscal shocks, as measured by the annual growth rates of the tradable goods production sector and the federal government expenditure of the year the recoveries start, trying to capture the initial impulses that may have taken the economy out the recession. The recession and recovery periods (turning points, namely peaks and troughs) are identified by using the classical business cycles methodology introduced by Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1998) that follows the spirit of Mitchel (1927) and Burns and Mitchel (1946). Recoveries growth is measured as the monthly average growth rate from the end of the prior recession up to 9, 12 and the number of months required to get the prior peak. Conventional linear regression models are estimated for total, permanent and temporary employment. To avoid possible problems of collinearity between depth and duration, on the one hand, and steepness, on the other, these variables were included in two different specification models for each type of employment. The corresponding tests indicate that the estimated models present acceptable specifications, in general. Our main results suggest that depth and steepness of prior recessions (as measured by the percentage accumulated drop and the monthly average growth rate of employment over the recession, respectively) have separated negative effects on subsequent growth recoveries, especially after the 2001 recession. Regarding the effects of other shocks pulling the economy out the recession, our results suggest that the fiscal policy followed by the federal government did not contribute to the recovery from the 2008 recession at state level since the coefficients are negative, which would imply the existence of a pro-cyclical policy at least at the end of the recession period. In turn, in the models of total and permanent employment, the tradable goods sector has robust positive and significant effects that reflect the important role of the external demand in the recovery from the Great Recession. These two variables had no significant effects of the recovery following the 2001 recession. In general, the evidence reported in this paper is consistent with the implications of different models that try to explain the ?bounce-back? effect and provides some support to the hypothesis that deeper or steeper recessions are followed by stronger recoveries in the Mexican states.

This paper empirically investigates and theoretically reflects on the generality of the "stylized facts" discussed in business cycle analysis. Using OECD data for 1960 - 2010, the duration of business cycles as well as three models capturing core macroeconomic relations are estimated: based on the Phillips curve (the inflation-unemployment nexus), Okun's law (in the context of the relation between output growth and unemployment) and the inflation-output relation. Results are validated by relevant statistical tests. Observed durations vary from 4 to 8 years, and estimated coefficients differ in signs and magnitudes. Bearing these substantial variations in mind, an explanation of this heterogeneity is attempted by referring to proxies for various institutional variables for the goods, labour and money markets. The findings suggest that core coefficients in the relations, such as the slope of the Phillips curve, show significant correlation with some of these variables, but no uniform results are obtained. In the detailed theoretical discussion and interpretation it is thus argued that the notable differences between countries call the universality of the "stylized facts" into question, but also that these variations cannot be explained exhaustively by the institutional proxy variables employed here.