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We construct text-based measures of the primary concerns listed firms associated with the spread of COVID-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms perceive to lose or gain from a given epidemic and textually decompose the epidemic's effect on the firm's demand and supply. We find that the effects of COVID-19 manifest as a simultaneous shock to demand and supply, with both shocks affecting firms' market valuations in equal measure on average. By contrast, demand-related impacts appear more important in accounting for the observed collapse in firm-level investment during the COVID-19 crisis. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test the predictions of recent theoretical studies of the impact of sanctions on the exchange rate. We build a database of exchange rates and sanctions spanning 1914–45 – an era when both large and small economies were targeted by multilateral sanction packages, facilitating comparisons with today's Russian war episode. We estimate the dynamic response of the exchange rate in a panel of sanction episodes at weekly frequency using local projections, conditioning on the type of sanctions taken. We tease out mechanisms through which sanctions affect the exchange rate by estimating their effects on macroeconomic variables plausibly acting as transmission channels. Our estimates suggest that import restrictions, export restrictions, asset freezes and trade embargoes lead to exchange rate effects consistent with theory, though the precision of the measured effects varies across sanction type. These findings suggest that recent models of the effects of sanctions on the exchange rate do not just match developments in today's specific Russia episode but have broader applicability. It follows that the direction of exchange rate movements is not an adequate metric of the success or failure of sanctions but a reflection of the type and scale of the measures taken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adoption of inflation-targeting regimes has led central banks to devote considerable efforts to improve their transparency. Following this trend, several authors have developed tools to measure and compare the levels of transparency of central banks. This paper undertakes this task for the Central Bank of Uruguay by applying two different transparency indexes. The first one was designed in the mid-2000s and has been applied in a sample with a significant number of countries. The second index is based on a new approach that seeks to reflect the best practices of the most advanced inflation-forecast-targeting regimes.

The incorporation of alternative fuels in the automotive domain has brought a new paradigm to tackle the environmental and energy crises. Therefore, it is of interest to test and forecast engine performance with blended fuels. This paper presents an experimental study on gasoline-ethanol blends to test and forecast engine behavior due to changes in the fuel. This study employed a machine learning (ML) technique called TOPSIS to forecast the performance of a slightly higher blend fuelled engine based on experimental data obtained from the same engine running on 0% ethanol blend (E0) and E10 fuels under full load conditions. The engine performance predictions of this ML model were validated for 15% ethanol blend (E15) and further used to predict the engine performance of 20% ethanol blend fuel. The prediction R2 score for the ML model was found to be greater than 0.95 and the MAPE range was 1% to 5% for all observed engine performance attributes. Thus, this paper presents the potential of TOPSIS methodology-based ML predictions on blended fuel engine performance to shorten the testing efforts of blended fuel engines. This methodology may help to faster incorporate higher blended fuels in the automotive sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in the US. We identify autonomous changes in survey evidence on consumer confidence using fatalities in mass shootings as an instrument. We find the instrument to be significant for an aggregate index of consumer expectations and also back up the identification scheme with micro evidence that exploits the geographical variation in mass shootings. Sentiment shocks have real macroeconomic effects. A negative sentiment shock is recessionary: It sets off a persistent decline in consumer confidence and induces a contraction in industrial production, private sector consumption and in the labour market, while having less evident nominal effects. Finally, sentiment shocks explain a non-negligible part of the cyclical fluctuations in consumer confidence and real macroeconomic aggregates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bovine viral diarrhea/mucosal disease (BVD/MD) is a viral infectious disease that seriously endangers the health of cattle herds and brings serious economic losses to the global cattle industry. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are empty shell structures without viral nucleic acid, which are similar to natural virus particles in morphology and structure. Because of their strong immunogenicity and biological activity, some of them have been used as vaccines in clinical trials. In this study, we developed a strategy to generate BVDV (E0 + E2, E2 + E2) VLPs using an insect baculovirus expression vector system (BEVS). The VLPs obtained were detected by immunofluorescence assay (IFA), western blotting analyses and transmission electron microscope (TEM), and the results showed that VLPs of high purity were obtained. Mice immunized with VLPs (15 μg) and Freund's adjuvant (100 μl) elicited higher BVDV-neutralizing antibody in comparison with Freund's adjuvant control (p < 0.0001), and even on day 21 or 35 postprime immunization, the neutralizing antibody levels of mice immunized with E0 + E2 or E2 + E2 VLPs were significantly higher compared with inactivated vaccine (p < 0.05). A subsequent challenge reveals that the viral loads of livers, kidneys, spleens, lungs and small intestines were significantly lower compared with control (p < 0.0001), and the viral loads of mice immunized with E0 + E2 or E2 + E2 VLPs in the small intestines were significantly lower compared with inactivated vaccine (p < 0.05). Thus, VLPs are a promising candidate vaccine and warrants further clinical evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines price stickiness in the United States (US) corn market using annual series data, on the dollar price of corn per bushel, obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis (FRED), between 1930 and 2017. The study implemented the Calvo price stick model based on an agent in a general equilibrium and New Keynesian type, simulated using DSGE-VAR. The approach permits the indexing formula to include expected corn inflation rather than lagged inflation. The results show that corn price inflation only persists by 2% every trading year, resulting from changes in the immediate future corn-price inflation and output-gap, respectively. The shock to stochastic term only causes a partial decline in the corn price, converging at a future date with its long-run equilibrium. The experiment confirmed that corn price fluctuations are beyond the purview of the domestic economy, and any attempt to impose price policies will offset the price setting, creating further distortions and a wider gap in the corn yield. The study provides fresh insight into the Calvo price stick model of the New Keynesian type and its use to forecast agricultural outcomes.

Research purpose. The importance of sustainable development, the need to achieve sustainable economic development that does not harm the environment, conserve natural resources or exacerbate tensions in society has been increasingly discussed over the last decade. The purpose of the research is to evaluate the economic growth and decent work environment in G20 countries during 2013–2018 as G20 countries are the fastest growing countries in the world, and their economy describes the major part of the global economy.

Motivated by the limited evidence on the positive link between social capital and firm performance, this paper explores this potential driver of firm performance at the firm rather than macro-level by employing a novel approach: we capture social capital at a community level rather than focus on the narrow aspect of entrepreneurs' own social network. Using principal component analysis to aggregate various trust, norm and network-related variables to construct social capital variables with more than 150,000 firm-level observations for firm performance variables, this paper identifies an overall positive and significant effect of social capital on firm performance in Denmark. These effects are robust to firm-level social capital measures, different sampling years and alternative measures of firm performance (return on asset, current ratio, solvency ratio and profit margin) and network perspectives (Putnam and Olson). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigation of economies as complex adaptive systems may provide a deeper understanding of their behavior and response to perturbation. We use methodologies from ecology to test whether the global economy has discontinuous size distributions, a signature of multi-scale processes in complex adaptive systems, and we contrast the theoretical assumptions underpinning our methodology with that of the economic convergence club literature. Discontinuous distributions in complex systems consist of aggregations of similarly-sized entities, separated by gaps, in a pattern of non-random departures from a continuous or power law distribution. We analysed per capita real GDP (in 2005 constant dollars) for all countries of the world, from 1970 to 2012. We tested each yearly distribution for discontinuities, and then compared the distributions over time using multivariate modelling. We find that the size distribution of the world's economies are discontinuous and that there are persistent patterns of aggregations and gaps over time. These size classes are outwardly similar to convergence clubs, but are derived from theory that presumes that economies are complex adaptive systems. We argue that the underlying mechanisms, rather than emerging from conditions of initial equivalence, evolve and operate at multiple scales that can be objectively identified and assessed. Understanding the patterns within and across scales may provide insight into the processes that structure GDP over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Über die Bedeutung von Targetsalden streiten deutsche Ökonomen seit Jahren erbittert. Martin Hellwig hat in Heft 4/2018 der PWP seine Sicht der Dinge ausführlich dargelegt. Demnach ist es verfehlt, Targetsalden als Risikoposition in den Zentralbankbilanzen der Überschussländer zu interpretieren. Die insbesondere von Hans-Werner Sinn vorgetragenen Sorgen wegen des hohen deutschen Targetsaldos beruhten auf falschen bzw. überholten Vorstellungen der volkswirtschaftlichen Zusammenhänge. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag widerspricht Ulrich van Suntum dieser Einschätzung. Er wirft Hellwig vor, betriebs- und volkswirtschaftliche Sichtweisen zu verwechseln und die geldtheoretischen Zusammenhänge zu verkennen. Auch habe er die Diskussion der Problematik unter den Hauptkontrahenten zu wenig rezipiert, obwohl diese zu einem weitgehenden Konsens in wichtigen Fragen geführt habe. Im Ergebnis sei Sinn und dessen Koautoren, nicht aber Hellwigs Gegenposition weitestgehend zuzustimmen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]