Search

Abstract Results are presented from a search for new physics in high-mass diphoton events from proton-proton collisions at s $$ \sqrt{s} $$ = 13 TeV. The data set was collected in 2016–2018 with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1. Events with a diphoton invariant mass greater than 500 GeV are considered. Two different techniques are used to predict the standard model backgrounds: parametric fits to the smoothly-falling background and a first-principles calculation of the standard model diphoton spectrum at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics calculations. The first technique is sensitive to resonant excesses while the second technique can identify broad differences in the invariant mass shape. The data are used to constrain the production of heavy Higgs bosons, Randall-Sundrum gravitons, the large extra dimensions model of Arkani-Hamed, Dimopoulos, and Dvali (ADD), and the continuum clockwork mechanism. No statistically significant excess is observed. The present results are the strongest limits to date on ADD extra dimensions and RS gravitons with a coupling parameter greater than 0.1.

Abstract A search for “emerging jets” produced in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is performed using data collected by the CMS experiment corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1. This search examines a hypothetical dark quantum chromodynamics (QCD) sector that couples to the standard model (SM) through a scalar mediator. The scalar mediator decays into an SM quark and a dark sector quark. As the dark sector quark showers and hadronizes, it produces long-lived dark mesons that subsequently decay into SM particles, resulting in a jet, known as an emerging jet, with multiple displaced vertices. This search looks for pair production of the scalar mediator at the LHC, which yields events with two SM jets and two emerging jets at leading order. The results are interpreted using two dark sector models with different flavor structures, and exclude mediator masses up to 1950 (1950) GeV for an unflavored (flavor-aligned) dark QCD model. The unflavored results surpass a previous search for emerging jets by setting the most stringent mediator mass exclusion limits to date, while the flavor-aligned results provide the first direct mediator mass exclusion limits to date.

In-depth control of reactivity and defects chemistry is shown to be mandatory to reach high density YSZ ceramics at sintering temperatures lower than 900°C. The combination of Cold Sintering Process (CSP) and Spark Plasma Sintering (SPS) has highlighted the role of transient chemistry on the densification of this material. More, optimised conditions were found for achieving densification of YSZ at 850°C in a one-step SPS process. In particular, the vacuum level in the SPS chamber is clearly shown to be a decisive parameter to obtain dense nanostructured YSZ tetragonal ceramics up to 95% below 900°C. The occurrence of oxygen vacancies has thus been addressed associating thermal analyses, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Electron Paramagnetic Resonance, photoluminescence spectroscopy and impedance spectroscopy. Understanding defect chemistry mechanisms and their dependence on the process or combination of processes, is a lever towards high-quality YSZ nanostructured ceramics below 900°C.

Exposure to persistent organic pollutants during the perinatal period is of particular concern because of the potential increased risk of neurological disorders in adulthood. Here we questioned whether exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) could alter myelin formation and regeneration. First, we show that PFOS, and to a lesser extent PFOA, accumulated into the myelin sheath of postnatal day 21 (p21) mice, whose mothers were exposed to either PFOA or PFOS (20 mg/L) via drinking water during late gestation and lactation, suggesting that accumulation of PFOS into the myelin could interfere with myelin formation and function. In fact, PFOS, but not PFOA, disrupted the generation of oligodendrocytes, the myelin-forming cells of the central nervous system, derived from neural stem cells localised in the subventricular zone of p21 exposed animals. Then, cerebellar slices were transiently demyelinated using lysophosphatidylcholine and remyelination was quantified in the presence of either PFOA or PFOS. Only PFOS impaired remyelination, a deleterious effect rescued by adding thyroid hormone (TH). Similarly to our observation in the mouse, we also showed that PFOS altered remyelination in Xenopus laevis using the Tg(Mbp:GFP-ntr) model of conditional demyelination and measuring, then, the number of oligodendrocytes. The functional consequences of PFOS-impaired remyelination were shown by its effects using a battery of behavioural tests. In sum, our data demonstrate that perinatal PFOS exposure disrupts oligodendrogenesis and myelin function through modulation of TH action. PFOS exposure may exacerbate genetic and environmental susceptibilities underlying myelin disorders, the most frequent being multiple sclerosis.

The DIII-D tokamak has elucidated crucial physics and developed projectable solutions for ITER and fusion power plants in the key areas of core performance, boundary heat and particle transport, and integrated scenario operation, with closing the core-edge integration knowledge gap being the overarching mission. New experimental validation of high-fidelity, multi-channel, non-linear gyrokinetic turbulent transport models for ITER provides strong confidence it will achieve Q ⩾ 10 operation. Experiments identify options for easing H-mode access in hydrogen, and give new insight into the isotopic dependence of transport and confinement. Analysis of 2,1 islands in unoptimized low-torque IBS demonstration discharges suggests their onset time occurs randomly in the constant β phase, most often triggered by non-linear 3-wave coupling, thus identifying an NTM seeding mechanism to avoid. Pure deuterium SPI for disruption mitigation is shown to provide favorable slow cooling, but poor core assimilation, suggesting paths for improved SPI on ITER. At the boundary, measured neutral density and ionization source fluxes are strongly poloidally asymmetric, implying a 2D treatment is needed to model pedestal fuelling. Detailed measurements of pedestal and SOL quantities and impurity charge state radiation in detached divertors has validated edge fluid modelling and new self-consistent ‘pedestal-to-divertor’ integrated modeling that can be used to optimize reactors. New feedback adaptive ELM control minimizes confinement reduction, and RMP ELM suppression with sustained high core performance was obtained for the first time with the outer strike point in a W-coated, compact and unpumped small-angle slot divertor. Advances have been made in integrated operational scenarios for ITER and power plants. Wide pedestal intrinsically ELM-free QH-modes are produced with more reactor-relevant conditions, Low torque IBS with W-equivalent radiators can exhibit predator-prey oscillations in T _e and radiation which need control. High- β _P scenarios with q _min > 2, q _95 –7.9, β _N > 4, β _T –3.3% and H _98y2 > 1.5 are sustained with high density ( $\bar n$ = 7E19 m ^−3 , f _G –1) for 6 τ _E , improving confidence in steady-state tokamak reactors. Diverted NT plasmas achieve high core performance with a non-ELMing edge, offering a possible highly attractive core-edge integration solution for reactors.

ABSTRACT: The effects of feeding strategies during rearing (0–16 wk) of brown laying hens on mid and end laying performance (30–89 wk) were studied. The rearing feeding strategies followed a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement with feed form; mash with inclusion of 3% finely ground wheat straw (MWS), crumbles with inclusion of 3% finely ground wheat straw (CWS), and crumbles with inclusion of 3% unground oat hulls as fiber sources (COH) at 2 dietary Ca and P levels (high or low Ca–P). Feed conversion ratio improved with COH and MWS compared with CWS from 30 to 59 wk. Rate of lay and egg mass production showed a feed form × Ca–P interaction from 60 to 89 wk. Low Ca–P led to a higher egg production, but only when COH and MWS were fed. BW at 89 wk was higher with CWS compared to COH and MWS. BW uniformity was better with COH compared to MWS at 51 wk and both CWS and MWS at 67 wk. Tibia characteristics were not clearly affected by treatment, although there was a feed form × Ca–P interaction on compression at 89 wk, where compression was lower with MWS and low vs. high Ca–P. Low Ca–P during rearing led to higher eggshell thickness, compared to high Ca–P at 45 wk of age, but breaking strength was lower with low vs. high Ca–P at 75 wk. Although eggshell quality was affected by Ca–P and there were some interactions with feed form at some ages, the effect was not consistent. There was no clear relationship between eggshell quality and tibia characteristics. It was concluded that feeding low Ca–P in combination with COH and MWS during the rearing period positively affects egg production during late lay. Also, dietary Ca–P levels, compared to commercial practice, can be lowered during rearing, as this will not affect eggshell quality and bone mineralization at later ages.

Introduction Bipolar disorder (BD) is a chronic deteriorating illness which has a strong impact on functionality. In the past few years, orexins have gained importance as possible biomarkers of circadian rhythms, affected in BD. Up to this date, we have not found any bibliographical review evaluating the association of orexins and BD. Objectives To review published literature in relation to the associaton of orexins and BD. Methods A bibliographical search was conducted in PubMed. Inclusion criteria were a) the study evaluated orexins in plasma or cerebrospinal fluid, and b) patients with BD were included within the subjects of study. Reference lists of the articles that met inclusion criteria were also examined. Results Ten articles were retrieved from the initial search. Only three met inclusion criteria and another one was selected from the reference list examination. One study observed significantly higher levels of orexin A in plasma of BD patients versus depression and controls. Other found higher concentration of orexin A of unipolar and bipolar depression versus controls, but this result was not statistically significant. Another one did not find differences in orexin A concentration between mania, depression and controls. The remaining study detected significantly lower concentration of orexin A in BD versus depression, schizophrenia and controls. Conclusions Despite being heterogenous, the results point out there are differences in orexin levels in BD when compared to other diagnostic groups or controls. This sets a starting point to focus research on this subject and continue analyzing the role of orexins as biomarkers in BD. Disclosure No significant relationships.

This experimental work addressed the thermal control a roof-top collective building antenna meant to control home equipment in smart buildings. The antenna was placed inside a concentric quasi-cylindrical cavity maintained at low temperature. Cooling was provided by a Water-Copper nanofluid saturated porous matrix placed between the antenna and the enclosure. The ratio of the thermal conductivity of the porous material to that of the water varied from 4 up to 41.2. The nanoparticles volume fraction varied between 0% and 5%. The main result was a new semi-empirical correlation that allows for the determination of the antenna's average surface temperature as a function of the governing parameters: ratios of nanofluid to water and porous media to water thermal conductivities, nanoparticles volume fraction, and Rayleigh number. The applicability of the correlation was illustrated for a practical application case. It was found that, for some cases, the proposed thermal control system improves power dissipation by a factor of 33% as compared with the case of pure water (2 kW versus 1.5 kW).

Studies of fish growth response to changes in dietary protein and energy content are often conducted with fish fed to apparent satiation or at fixed percentages of their body mass. Such designs result in simultaneous changes in protein and non-protein energy intake, thereby failing to distinguish their separate effects on nutrient partitioning and growth. The present study was designed to address this limitation and test the existence of distinct protein- and non-protein energy-dependent growth phases in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). All-male Nile tilapia (63 g, SD = 1.3) were subjected to an 8 × 2 factorial design consisting of eight levels of digestible protein (DP) intake (0.44–1.25 g/day) and two levels of non-protein digestible energy (NPDE) intake (16.0 and 22.4 kJ/day). Fish (n = 960) were housed in 60-litre tanks with two replicates per treatment and hand-fed twice a day for 42 days. Nutrient balances were calculated from changes in body mass, analysed body composition and digestible nutrient intake. Linear regression models were compared to linear-plateau regression models to determine whether protein gain followed distinct protein- and non-protein energy-dependent phases or not. Body mass gain increased linearly with increasing DP intake and was significantly higher (2.6 vs 2.3 g/d, P

Larval zebrafish have been established as an excellent model for examining vertebrate biology, with many researchers using the system for neuroscience. Controlling a fast escape response of the fish, the Mauthner cells and their associated network are an attractive model, given their experimental accessibility and fast development, driving ethologically relevant behavior in the first five days of development. Here, we describe methods for immunostaining electrical and chemical synapse proteins at 3-7 days post fertilization (dpf) in zebrafish using tricholoracetic acid fixation. The methods presented are ideally suited to easily visualize neural circuits and synapses within the fish.

This paper describes the impact of the various changes made to the Safran–Isba–Modcou (SIM) hydrometeorological system and demonstrates that the new version of the model performs better than the previous one by making comparisons with observations of daily river flows and snow depths. SIM was developed and put into operational service at Météo-France in the early 2000s. The SIM application is dedicated to the monitoring of water resources and can therefore help in drought monitoring or flood risk forecasting on French territory. This complex system combines three models: SAFRAN, which analyses meteorological variables close to the surface, the ISBA land surface model, which aims to calculate surface fluxes at the interface with the atmosphere and ground variables, and finally MODCOU, a hydrogeological model which calculates river flows and changes in groundwater levels. The SIM model has been improved first by reducing the infrared radiation bias of SAFRAN and then by using the more advanced ISBA multi-layer surface diffusion scheme to have a more physical representation of surface and ground processes. In addition, more accurate and recent databases of vegetation, soil texture, and orography were used. Finally, in mountainous areas, a sub-grid orography representation using elevation bands was adopted, as was the possibility of adding a reservoir to represent the effect of aquifers in mountainous areas. The numerical simulations carried out with the SIM model covered the period from 1958 to 2018, thereby providing an extensive historical analysis of the water resources over France.

To better understand the formation and the oxidation pathways leading to gypsum-forming “black crusts” and investigate their bearing on the whole atmospheric SO2 cycle, we measured the oxygen (δ17O, δ18O, and Δ17O) and sulfur (δ33S, δ34S, δ36S, Δ33S, and Δ36S) isotopic compositions of black crust sulfates sampled on carbonate building stones along a NW–SE cross section in the Parisian basin. The δ18O and δ34S values, ranging between 7.5 ‰ and 16.7±0.5 ‰ (n=27, 2σ) and between −2.66 ‰ and 13.99±0.20 ‰, respectively, show anthropogenic SO2 as the main sulfur source (from ∼2 % to 81 %, average ∼30 %) with host-rock sulfates making the complement. This is supported by Δ17O values (up to 2.6 ‰, on average ∼0.86 ‰), requiring > 60 % of atmospheric sulfates in black crusts. Negative Δ33S and Δ36S values between −0.34 ‰ and 0.00±0.01 ‰ and between −0.76 ‰ and -0.22±0.20 ‰, respectively, were measured in black crust sulfates, which is typical of a magnetic isotope effect that would occur during the SO2 oxidation on the building stone, leading to 33S depletion in black crust sulfates and subsequent 33S enrichment in residual SO2. Except for a few samples, sulfate aerosols mostly have Δ33S values > 0 ‰, and no processes can yet explain this enrichment, resulting in an inconsistent S budget: black crust sulfates could well represent the complementary negative Δ33S reservoir of the sulfate aerosols, thus solving the atmospheric SO2 budget.

Abstract Background In the last 20 years governments have sought to introduce policy that improves the quality of care provided in hospitals, yet little research has been done to understand how these policies are implemented, factors that affect the implementation process or what should be considered by decision-makers during policy development or implementation planning. Experts with real-life experience in the introduction and implementation of policy are best placed to provide valuable insight into practical issues that affect implementation and the associated outcomes of these policies. Methods A modified Delphi study of experts in hospital policy development and implementation was undertaken to investigate factors influencing the implementation of government-directed policy in the hospital setting. This study built on the findings of two previous studies — a qualitative study of clinician perspectives of policy implementation and a systematic review and meta-synthesis, in which common contextual factors and policy characteristics associated with policy implementation were ascertained. International experts with extensive experience in government-directed policy implementation at global, national, corporate, jurisdictional and organisational levels were asked to provide opinions on predetermined factors and the feasibility of considering these in policy development and implementation planning. Survey design and analysis was guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. Results Eleven experts from four countries and with different health system perspectives participated in the study. Consensus was reached on the importance of all predetermined factors in the first survey round with additional factors for investigation highlighted by participants for examination in subsequent rounds. On study completion, expert consensus was reached on 24 factors of importance; only 20 of these factors reached consensus for feasibility. Conclusions Study findings indicated that, whilst there are multiple factors of importance in policy implementation across all Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research domains, some factors, such as establishment of roles and responsibilities for implementation and organisational lines of accountability, are feasible for consideration at a hospital level only. In addition, four factors did not reach consensus in terms of feasibility, indicating that it may not be practical to consider all factors of importance when implementing policy; this has important implications for implementation planning and resource allocation.

Combination of porous media and nanofluids is used to improve heat transfer around a vertical finned cylindrical antenna generating high heat flux. This technique ensures correct operation of this electronic device under the conditions recommended by the manufacturers. This active component is enclosed inside another concentric quasi-cylindrical cavity maintained at low temperature. Cooling is carried out via highly porous materials of various thermal conductivities, saturated with Water-Copper nanofluid whose volume fraction varies between 0% (pure water) and 5%. Natural convective heat transfer is quantified by means of the average Nusselt number. A new Nusselt-Rayleigh correlation is proposed in the 2.53 × 105 to 5.13 × 107 Rayleigh number range. The ratio between the conductivity of the porous material and that of the water (base fluid) was varied between 4 and 41.2. The results obtained show that, as compared to the reference case (pure water as the working fluid, and no porous media present), Nusselt number improvements of up to 65% can be obtained in the upper limit region of the span of Rayleigh numbers considered. This study has been performed via a numerical approach based on the volume control method using the SIMPLE algorithm.

Aims: To describe and compare the adherence to different direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in eight European databases representing six countries.Methods: Longitudinal drug utilization study of new users (≥18 years) of DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban) with a diagnosis of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (2008–2015). Adherence was examined by estimating persistence, switching, and discontinuation rates at 12 months. Primary non-adherence was estimated in BIFAP and SIDIAP databases.Results: The highest persistence rate was seen for apixaban in the CPRD database (81%) and the lowest for dabigatran in the Mondriaan database (22%). The switching rate for all DOACs ranged from 2.4 to 13.1% (Mondriaan and EGB databases, respectively). Dabigatran had the highest switching rate from 5.0 to 20.0% (Mondriaan and EGB databases, respectively). The discontinuation rate for all DOACs ranged from 16.0 to 63.9% (CPRD and Bavarian CD databases, respectively). Dabigatran had the highest rate of discontinuers, except in the Bavarian CD and AOK NORDWEST databases, ranging from 23.2 to 64.6% (CPRD and Mondriaan databases, respectively). Combined primary non-adherence for examined DOACs was 11.1% in BIFAP and 14.0% in SIDIAP. There were differences in population coverage and in the type of drug data source among the databases.Conclusion: Despite the differences in the characteristics of the databases and in demographic and baseline characteristics of the included population that could explain some of the observed discrepancies, we can observe a similar pattern throughout the databases. Apixaban was the DOAC with the highest persistence. Dabigatran had the highest proportion of discontinuers and switchers at 12 months in most databases (EMA/2015/27/PH).

ABSTRACT: In a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement, effects of feed form (crumbles (CWS), mash (MWS), both with inclusion of 3% finely ground wheat straw, or crumbles with inclusion of 3% oat hulls (COH)), and dietary Ca and P (high and low Ca-P) from 0 to 16 wk of age were studied on growth performance, bone characteristics, and gizzard development of egg-type pullets. The cross-over effect of feeding strategy during rearing on laying performance and egg shell quality was studied from 19 to 32 wk of age. From 0 to 16 wk, ADG, ADFI, and feed conversion ratio (FCR) were improved with CWS and COH compared to MWS, but ADG and FCR were improved with MWS compared to CWS and COH from 11 to 16 wk. Uniformity of BW till 11 wk, and tibia breaking strength at 6 and 16 wk were higher with CWS and COH compared to MWS. Tibia ash content at 11 wk and relative empty proventriculus + gizzard weight (EPG) were lower with CWS and COH compared to MWS, also relative EPG at 11 and 16 wk was higher with COH compared to CWS. At 25 wk BW was lower with MWS compared to CWS and COH, but BW was equal for all treatments at 32 wk. The FCR for egg production was improved with COH compared to MWS. Egg shell parameters were not affected by feed form during rearing. Low Ca-P decreased BW uniformity at 6 wk, relative keel bone weight and ash content at 11 wk, tibia ash content at 11 and 16 wk, increased relative EPG at 6 wk, and improved egg shell quality at 32 wk of age. It was concluded that feeding CWS and COH compared to MWS increased growth performance, but had no clear cross-over effect on egg production. Low dietary Ca-P led to a lower bone mineralization during rearing, nevertheless improved egg shell quality at 32 wk.

Accountability-era reforms have promulgated a discourse of crisis and a looming threat for public schools. While these threats negatively affect all, this paper focuses on how schools' responses to these threats shape novice Teach for America Corp Members' (CM) socialization. By analyzing nearly 6,000 daily reflections from 38 CMs about their experiences during a high-stakes cheating scandal, we argue that schools' responses indicated a threat rigidity response that allowed what we call the mesosystem of transgressions to occur. Our implications present ways to (a) mitigate threats inflicted on schools through unjust policies and practices and (b) enact equitable public schools.

The Réal Collobrier hydrological observatory in south-eastern France, managed by Irstea since 1966, constitutes a benchmark site for regional hydro-climatology. Because of the dense network of stream gauges and rain gauges available, this site provides a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term hydro-meteorological Mediterranean trends. The main catchment (70 km2) and its sub-catchments are located in the Massif des Maures of south-eastern France, close to the Mediterranean coast. The vegetation is composed of forest mainly calcified on crystalline soils (maquis of heath, cork-oak, maritime pine and chestnut). Direct human influence has been negligible over the past 50 years. The land use and land cover has remained almost unchanged, with the notable exception of a wildfire in 1990 that impacted a small sub-catchment. Therefore changes in the hydrological response of the catchments are caused by changes in climate and/or physical conditions. This study investigates changes in observational data using up to 50-year daily series of precipitation and streamflow. The analysis used several climate indices describing distinct modes of variability, at inter-annual and seasonal timescales. Trends were assessed by the Mann–Kendall method. The analysis also used hydrological indices describing drought events based on daily data for a description of low flows, in particular in terms of timing and severity. The analysis shows that there is a marked tendency towards a decrease in the water resources of the Réal Collobrier catchment in response to climate trends, with a consistent increase in drought severity and duration. But the changes are variable among the sub-catchments.

The photochemical box model CiTTyCAT is used to analyse the absence of oxygen mass-independent anomalies (O-MIF) in volcanic sulfates produced in the troposphere. An aqueous sulfur oxidation module is implemented in the model and coupled to an oxygen isotopic scheme describing the transfer of O-MIF during the oxidation of SO2 by OH in the gas-phase, and by H2O2, O3 and O2 catalysed by TMI in the liquid phase. Multiple model simulations are performed in order to explore the relative importance of the various oxidation pathways for a range of plausible conditions in volcanic plumes. Note that the chemical conditions prevailing in dense volcanic plumes are radically different from those prevailing in the surrounding background air. The first salient finding is that, according to model calculations, OH is expected to carry a very significant O-MIF in sulfur-rich volcanic plumes and, hence, that the volcanic sulfate produced in the gas phase would have a very significant positive isotopic enrichment. The second finding is that, although H2O2 is a major oxidant of SO2 throughout the troposphere, it is very rapidly consumed in sulfur-rich volcanic plumes. As a result, H2O2 is found to be a minor oxidant for volcanic SO2. According to the simulations, oxidation of SO2 by O3 is negligible because volcanic aqueous phases are too acidic. The model predictions of minor or negligible sulfur oxidation by H2O2 and O3, two oxidants carrying large O-MIF, are consistent with the absence of O-MIF seen in most isotopic measurements of volcanic tropospheric sulfate. The third finding is that oxidation by O2∕TMI in volcanic plumes could be very substantial and, in some cases, dominant, notably because the rates of SO2 oxidation by OH, H2O2 and O3 are vastly reduced in a volcanic plume compared to the background air. Only cases where sulfur oxidation by O2∕TMI is very dominant can explain the isotopic composition of volcanic tropospheric sulfate.

Land surface models (LSMs) need to balance a complicated trade-off between computational cost and complexity in order to adequately represent the exchanges of energy, water and matter with the atmosphere and the ocean. Some current generation LSMs use a simplified or composite canopy approach that generates recurrent errors in simulated soil temperature and turbulent fluxes. In response to these issues, a new version of the interactions between soil–biosphere–atmosphere (ISBA) land surface model has recently been developed that explicitly solves the transfer of energy and water from the upper canopy and the forest floor, which is characterized as a litter layer. The multi-energy balance (MEB) version of ISBA is first evaluated for three well-instrumented contrasting local-scale sites, and sensitivity tests are performed to explore the behavior of new model parameters. Second, ISBA-MEB is benchmarked against observations from 42 forested sites from the global micro-meteorological network (FLUXNET) for multiple annual cycles.It is shown that ISBA-MEB outperforms the composite version of ISBA in improving the representation of soil temperature, ground, sensible and, to a lesser extent, latent heat fluxes. Both versions of ISBA give comparable results in terms of simulated latent heat flux because of the similar formulations of the water uptake and the stomatal resistance. However, MEB produces a better agreement with the observations of sensible heat flux than the previous version of ISBA for 87.5 % of the simulated years across the 42 forested FLUXNET sites. Most of this improvement arises owing to the improved simulation of the ground conduction flux, which is greatly improved using MEB, especially owing to the forest litter parameterization. It is also shown that certain processes are also modeled more realistically (such as the partitioning of evapotranspiration into transpiration and ground evaporation), even if certain statistical performances are neutral. The analyses demonstrate that the shading effect of the vegetation, the explicit treatment of turbulent transfer for the canopy and ground, and the insulating thermal and hydrological effects of the forest floor litter turn out to be essential for simulating the exchange of energy, water and matter across a large range of forest types and climates.

Snowfall forecasts help winter maintenance of road networks, ensure better coordination between services, cost control, and a reduction in environmental impacts caused by an inappropriate use of de-icers. In order to determine the possible accumulation of snow on pavements, forecasting the road surface temperature (RST) is mandatory. Weather outstations are used along these networks to identify changes in pavement status, and to make forecasts by analyzing the data they provide. Physical numerical models provide such forecasts, and require an accurate description of the infrastructure along with meteorological parameters. The objective of this study was to build a reliable urban RST forecast with a detailed integration of traffic in the Town Energy Balance (TEB) numerical model for winter maintenance. The study first consisted in generating a physical and consistent description of traffic in the model with two approaches to evaluate traffic incidence on RST. Experiments were then conducted to measure the effect of traffic on RST increase with respect to non-circulated areas. These field data were then used for comparison with the forecast provided by this traffic-implemented TEB version.

Generic land surface models are generally driven by large-scale data sets to describe the climate, the soil properties, the vegetation dynamic and the cropland management (irrigation). This paper investigates the uncertainties in these drivers and their impacts on the evapotranspiration (ET) simulated from the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA-A-gs) land surface model over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. We evaluate the forcing data sets used in the standard implementation of ISBA over France where the model is driven by the SAFRAN (Système d'Analyse Fournissant des Renseignements Adaptés à la Nivologie) high spatial resolution atmospheric reanalysis, the leaf area index (LAI) time courses derived from the ECOCLIMAP-II land surface parameter database and the soil texture derived from the French soil database. For climate, we focus on the radiations and rainfall variables and we test additional data sets which include the ERA-Interim (ERA-I) low spatial resolution reanalysis, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data set (GPCC) and the MeteoSat Second Generation (MSG) satellite estimate of downwelling shortwave radiations. The evaluation of the drivers indicates very low bias in daily downwelling shortwave radiation for ERA-I (2.5 W m−2) compared to the negative biases found for SAFRAN (−10 W m−2) and the MSG satellite (−12 W m−2). Both SAFRAN and ERA-I underestimate downwelling longwave radiations by −12 and −16 W m−2, respectively. The SAFRAN and ERA-I/GPCC rainfall are slightly biased at daily and longer timescales (1 and 0.5 % of the mean rainfall measurement). The SAFRAN rainfall is more precise than the ERA-I/GPCC estimate which shows larger inter-annual variability in yearly rainfall error (up to 100 mm). The ECOCLIMAP-II LAI climatology does not properly resolve Mediterranean crop phenology and underestimates the bare soil period which leads to an overall overestimation of LAI over the crop succession. The simulation of irrigation by the model provides an accurate irrigation amount over the crop cycle but the timing of irrigation occurrences is frequently unrealistic. Errors in the soil hydrodynamic parameters and the lack of irrigation in the simulation have the largest influence on ET compared to uncertainties in the large-scale climate reanalysis and the LAI climatology. Among climate variables, the errors in yearly ET are mainly related to the errors in yearly rainfall. The underestimation of the available water capacity and the soil hydraulic diffusivity induce a large underestimation of ET over 12 years. The underestimation of radiations by the reanalyses and the absence of irrigation in the simulation lead to the underestimation of ET while the overall overestimation of LAI by the ECOCLIMAP-II climatology induces an overestimation of ET over 12 years. This work shows that the key challenges to monitor the water balance of cropland at regional scale concern the representation of the spatial distribution of the soil hydrodynamic parameters, the variability of the irrigation practices, the seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of vegetation and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of rainfall.

Layered ceramic materials (also referred to as “ceramic laminates”) are becoming one of the most promising areas of materials technology aiming to improve the brittle behavior of bulk ceramics. The utilization of tailored compressive residual stresses acting as physical barriers to crack propagation has already succeeded in many ceramic systems. Relatively thick compressive layers located below the surface have proven very effective to enhance the fracture resistance and provide a minimum strength for the material. However, internal compressive stresses result in out-of plane stresses at the free surfaces, what can cause cracking of the compressive layer, forming the so-called edge cracks. Experimental observations have shown that edge cracking may be associated with the magnitude of the compressive stresses and with the thickness of the compressive layer. However, an understanding of the parameters related to the onset and extension of such edge cracks in the compressive layers is still lacking. In this work, a 2D parametric finite element model has been developed to predict the onset and propagation of an edge crack in ceramic laminates using a coupled stress-energy criterion. This approach states that a crack is originated when both stress and energy criteria are fulfilled simultaneously. Several designs with different residual stresses and a given thickness in the compressive layers have been computed. The results predict the existence of a lower bound, below no edge crack will be observed, and an upper bound, beyond which the onset of an edge crack would lead to the complete fracture of the layer

Procedure and some preliminary results of abundances determination in binaries with twin components from solar neighborhood are discussed. Numerical analysis were carried out by fits of synthetical spectra and COG to high resolution (R=50000) observed data. To fit the observations we used model atmospheres of Kurucz with different metallicities and (modified) VALD line list.

Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain terms in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs (Interaction Sol–Biosphere–Atmosphere) simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at the field scale over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamics of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key parameters which drive the simulation of ET, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. A sensitivity analysis is first conducted to quantify the relative contribution of each parameter on ET simulation over 12 years. The impact of the estimation method used to retrieve the soil parameters (pedotransfer function, laboratory and field methods) on ET is then analysed. The benefit of representing the variations in time of the rooting depth and wilting point is evaluated. Finally, the propagation of uncertainties in the soil parameters on ET simulations is quantified through a Monte Carlo analysis and compared with the uncertainties triggered by the mesophyll conductance which is a key above-ground driver of the stomatal conductance. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This results in a high sensitivity of simulated evapotranspiration to uncertainties in the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at saturation, both of which drive the simulation of soil evaporation. Field capacity was proved to be the most influencing parameter on the simulation of evapotranspiration over the crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24 % over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is −0.24 mm day−1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated, which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The use of field capacity values retrieved from laboratory methods leads to inaccurate simulation of ET due to the lack of representativeness of the soil structure variability at the field scale. The most accurate simulation is achieved with the average values of the soil properties derived from the analysis of field measurements of soil moisture vertical profiles over each crop cycle. The representation of the variations in time of the wilting point and the maximum rooting depth over the crop succession has little impact on the simulation performances. Finally, we show that the uncertainties in the soil parameters can generate substantial uncertainties in ET simulated over 12 years (the 95 % confidence interval represents 23 % of cumulative ET over 12 years). Uncertainties in the mesophyll conductance have lower impact on ET. Measurement random errors explain a large part of the scattering between simulations and measurements at half-hourly timescale. The deficits in simulated ET reported in this work are probably larger due to likely underestimation of ET by eddy-covariance measurements. Other possible model shortcomings include the lack of representation of soil vertical heterogeneity and root profile along with inaccurate energy balance partitioning between the soil and the vegetation at low leaf area index.

The aim of this article is to evaluate the use of musculoskeletal ultrasound in the daily clinical practice of a rheumatology unit. We conducted a descriptive retrospective analysis of the ultrasound examinations performed during 2011 and a comparison of these examinations with those performed between 1998 and 2003 and between 2007 and 2008. A total of 712 ultrasound examinations performed in 2011 were reviewed. Out of the total, examinations of individual areas of the body represented 11.6% versus 45.9% of the examinations made between 2007 and 2008 and 100% of those performed before 2003. The remaining 88.4% of ultrasound examinations performed in 2011 were intended to investigate inflammation in 25.8%, differential diagnosis of arthralgia in 17.1%, enthesis in 12.6% and temporal arteries in 17.3%, and to conduct ultrasound-guided procedures in 10.6% and study microcrystalline pathologies in 4.7%. In our unit, ultrasonography is evolving from being a mere investigation of individual areas of the body to becoming a clinical information tool, which contributes to the diagnosis and monitoring of the disease activity in the patient as a whole.

The repetition of droughts in France has led to a growing demand for irrigation water and consequently to an increase in requests for the construction of small farm dams. Although such dams are small, their accumulation in a basin affects river flows, because the water collected in these small farm dams is used for irrigation and thus does not contribute to river flow. In order to gain more insight into their impact on the annual and monthly discharges, especially during dry years, a small farm dam model was built and connected to a hydrometeorological model. Several scenarios with different volume capacities, filling catchment sizes and filling periods were tested for such dams. The results were analysed in a small basin in western France, where the pressure for building such dams is high, and then extended to the entire country. It was found that, due to the hydrometeorological conditions (mainly low precipitation compared to other regions in France), the development of small farm dams in north-western France would result in greater decreases in river flows and less efficient filling of small farm dams than in other regions. Therefore, such dams might not be as efficient as expected in supplying water to farmers when needed. Moreover, the ability to fill small farm dams is projected to decrease in a context of climate change, despite the uncertainty on the evolution of precipitation, thus worsening the situation.

Detailed data on land use and land cover constitute important information for Earth system models, environmental monitoring and ecosystem services research. Global land cover products are evolving rapidly; however, there is still a lack of information particularly for heterogeneous agricultural landscapes. We censused land use and land cover field by field in the agricultural mosaic catchment Haean in South Korea. We recorded the land cover types with additional information on agricultural practice. In this paper we introduce the data, their collection and the post-processing protocol. Furthermore, because it is important to quantitatively evaluate available land use and land cover products, we compared our data with the MODIS Land Cover Type product (MCD12Q1). During the studied period, a large portion of dry fields was converted to perennial crops. Compared to our data, the forested area was underrepresented and the agricultural area overrepresented in MCD12Q1. In addition, linear landscape elements such as waterbodies were missing in the MODIS product due to its coarse spatial resolution. The data presented here can be useful for earth science and ecosystem services research. The data are available at the public repository Pangaea (doi:110.1594/PANGAEA.823677).

In alpine regions, wind-induced snow transport strongly influences the spatio-temporal evolution of the snow cover throughout the winter season. To gain understanding on the complex processes that drive the redistribution of snow, a new numerical model is developed. It directly couples the detailed snowpack model Crocus with the atmospheric model Meso-NH. Meso-NH/Crocus simulates snow transport in saltation and in turbulent suspension and includes the sublimation of suspended snow particles. The coupled model is evaluated against data collected around the experimental site of Col du Lac Blanc (2720 m a.s.l., French Alps). First, 1-D simulations show that a detailed representation of the first metres of the atmosphere is required to reproduce strong gradients of blowing snow concentration and compute mass exchange between the snowpack and the atmosphere. Secondly, 3-D simulations of a blowing snow event without concurrent snowfall have been carried out. Results show that the model captures the main structures of atmospheric flow in alpine terrain. However, at 50 m grid spacing, the model reproduces only the patterns of snow erosion and deposition at the ridge scale and misses smaller scale patterns observed by terrestrial laser scanning. When activated, the sublimation of suspended snow particles causes a reduction of deposited snow mass of 5.3% over the calculation domain. Total sublimation (surface + blowing snow) is three times higher than surface sublimation in a simulation neglecting blowing snow sublimation.

SURFEX is a new externalized land and ocean surface platform that describes the surface fluxes and the evolution of four types of surfaces: nature, town, inland water and ocean. It is mostly based on pre-existing, well-validated scientific models that are continuously improved. The motivation for the building of SURFEX is to use strictly identical scientific models in a high range of applications in order to mutualise the research and development efforts. SURFEX can be run in offline mode (0-D or 2-D runs) or in coupled mode (from mesoscale models to numerical weather prediction and climate models). An assimilation mode is included for numerical weather prediction and monitoring. In addition to momentum, heat and water fluxes, SURFEX is able to simulate fluxes of carbon dioxide, chemical species, continental aerosols, sea salt and snow particles. The main principles of the organisation of the surface are described first. Then, a survey is made of the scientific module (including the coupling strategy). Finally, the main applications of the code are summarised. The validation work undertaken shows that replacing the pre-existing surface models by SURFEX in these applications is usually associated with improved skill, as the numerous scientific developments contained in this community code are used to good advantage.

The overall objective of the present study is to introduce the new ECOCLIMAP-II database for Europe, which is an upgrade for this region of the former initiative, ECOCLIMAP-I, already implemented at global scale. The ECOCLIMAP programme is a dual database at 1 km resolution that includes an ecosystem classification and a coherent set of land surface parameters that are primarily mandatory in meteorological modelling (notably leaf area index and albedo). Hence, the aim of this innovative physiography is to enhance the quality of initialisation and impose some surface attributes within the scope of weather forecasting and climate related studies. The strategy for implementing ECOCLIMAP-II is to depart from prevalent land cover products such as CLC2000 (Corine Land Cover) and GLC2000 (Global Land Cover) by splitting existing classes into new classes that possess a better regional character by virtue of the climatic environment (latitude, proximity to the sea, topography). The leaf area index (LAI) from MODIS and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from SPOT/Vegetation (a global monitoring system of vegetation) yield the two proxy variables that were considered here in order to perform a multi-year trimmed analysis between 1999 and 2005 using the K-means method. Further, meteorological applications require each land cover type to appear as a partition of fractions of 4 main surface types or tiles (nature, water bodies, sea, urban areas) and, inside the nature tile, fractions of 12 plant functional types (PFTs) representing generic vegetation types – principally broadleaf forest, needleleaf forest, C3 and C4 crops, grassland and bare land – as incorporated by the SVAT model ISBA (Interactions Surface Biosphere Atmosphere) developed at Météo France. This landscape division also forms the cornerstone of a validation exercise. The new ECOCLIMAP-II can be verified with auxiliary land cover products at very fine and coarse resolutions by means of versatile land occupation nomenclatures.

This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning.

Background: The association of mortality and poor outcome with reduced levels of hemoglobin (Hb) and hematocrit (Hct) in patients admitted for ischemic stroke was recently demonstrated. The mechanisms behind this have remained unclear. Aims: Here, we aimed to investigate a putative association between low Hb and Hct levels and infarct growth. Methods: All consecutive patients who received intravenous thrombolysis based on multimodal magnetic resonance imaging during the years 1998–2009 were screened. Laboratory data as well as admission magnetic resonance images and follow-up computed tomography scans of 257 patients were assessed. Overall, data of 100 patients were of sufficient quality and further analyzed. Results: Decrease in Hb and Hct as well as perfusion-weighted imaging volume, mismatch volume, and final infarct size on follow-up computed tomography were associated with infarct growth. A linear regression model revealed Hb decrease (β = 0.23, p = 0.02) to be a predictor of infarct growth, independent of mismatch volume (β = 0.27, p = 0.004) and minimum sodium (β = -0.21, p = 0.03), and adjusted to the non-predicting variables age, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score, maximum leucocytes and C-reactive protein, blood glucose, and Hct decrease. Conclusion: Hb levels that decrease after admission independently predict infarct growth in thrombolyzed stroke patients. The clinical implications of this relationship remain to be investigated.

This study investigates the impact on river discharge simulations of errors in the precipitation forcing, together with changes in the representation of vegetation variables and of plant transpiration. The most recent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used to drive the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere–Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (ISBA-TRIP) continental hydrological system over Europe and the Mediterranean basin over the 1991–2008 period. As ERA-Interim tends to underestimate precipitation, a number of precipitation corrections are proposed. In particular, the monthly Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation product is used to bias-correct the 3-hourly ERA-Interim estimates. This correction markedly improves the match between the ISBA-TRIP simulations and the river discharge observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC), at 150 gauging stations. The impact on TRIP river discharge simulations of various representations of the evapotranspiration in the ISBA land surface model is investigated as well: ISBA is used together with its upgraded carbon flux version (ISBA-A-gs). The latter is either driven by the satellite-derived climatology of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used by ISBA, or performs prognostic LAI simulations. The ISBA-A-gs model, with or without dynamically simulated LAI, allows a better representation of river discharge at low water levels. On the other hand, ISBA-A-gs does not perform as well as the original ISBA model at springtime.

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, such as mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This paper addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to simulate spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century? (3) How to use standardized drought indices to represent theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-yr multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France. Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index, respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well simulated by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals, either retrospective or prospective. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events derived from these theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation.

Detailed studies of snow cover processes require models that offer a fine description of the snow cover properties. The detailed snowpack model Crocus is such a scheme, and has been run operationally for avalanche forecasting over the French mountains for 20 yr. It is also used for climate or hydrological studies. To extend its potential applications, Crocus has been recently integrated within the framework of the externalized surface module SURFEX. SURFEX computes the exchanges of energy and mass between different types of surface and the atmosphere. It includes in particular the land surface scheme ISBA (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere). It allows Crocus to be run either in stand-alone mode, using a time series of forcing meteorological data or in fully coupled mode (explicit or fully implicit numerics) with atmospheric models ranging from meso-scale models to general circulation models. This approach also ensures a full coupling between the snow cover and the soil beneath. Several applications of this new simulation platform are presented. They range from a 1-D stand-alone simulation (Col de Porte, France) to fully-distributed simulations in complex terrain over a whole mountain range (Massif des Grandes Rousses, France), or in coupled mode such as a surface energy balance and boundary layer simulation over the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (Dome C).

Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960–2005 period. Two random sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains, whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values worsened.

This study examines whether the assimilation of remotely sensed near-surface soil moisture observations might benefit an operational hydrological model, specifically Météo-France's SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) model. Soil moisture data derived from ASCAT backscatter observations are assimilated into SIM using a Simplified Extended Kalman Filter (SEKF) over 3.5 years. The benefit of the assimilation is tested by comparison to a delayed cut-off version of SIM, in which the land surface is forced with more accurate atmospheric analyses, due to the availability of additional atmospheric observations after the near-real time data cut-off. However, comparing the near-real time and delayed cut-off SIM models revealed that the main difference between them is a dry bias in the near-real time precipitation forcing, which resulted in a dry bias in the root-zone soil moisture and associated surface moisture flux forecasts. While assimilating the ASCAT data did reduce the root-zone soil moisture dry bias (by nearly 50%), this was more likely due to a bias within the SEKF, than due to the assimilation having accurately responded to the precipitation errors. Several improvements to the assimilation are identified to address this, and a bias-aware strategy is suggested for explicitly correcting the model bias. However, in this experiment the moisture added by the SEKF was quickly lost from the model surface due to the enhanced surface fluxes (particularly drainage) induced by the wetter soil moisture states. Consequently, by the end of each winter, during which frozen conditions prevent the ASCAT data from being assimilated, the model land surface had returned to its original (dry-biased) climate. This highlights that it would be more effective to address the precipitation bias directly, than to correct it by constraining the model soil moisture through data assimilation.

In order to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model in climate change studies, a CO2 responsive version of the land surface model ISBA (ISBA-A-gs) is compared with its standard version in a climate impact assessment study. The study is performed over the French Mediterranean basin using the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain. A downscaled A2 regional climate scenario is used to force both versions of ISBA, and the results of the two land surface models are compared for the present climate and for that at the end of the century. Reasonable agreement is found between models and with discharge observations. However, ISBA-A-gs has a lower mean evapotranspiration and a higher discharge than ISBA-Standard. Results for the impact of climate change are coherent on a yearly basis for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge. However, the two versions of ISBA present contrasting seasonal variations. ISBA-A-gs develops a different vegetation cycle. The growth of the vegetation begins earlier and reaches a slightly lower maximum than in the present climate. This maximum is followed by a rapid decrease in summertime. In consequence, the springtime evapotranspiration is significantly increased when compared to ISBA-Standard, while the autumn evapotranspiration is lower. On average, discharge changes are more significant at the regional scale with ISBA-A-gs.

The extremes of precipitation and river flow obtained using three different statistical downscaling methods applied to the same regional climate simulation have been compared. The methods compared are the anomaly method, quantile mapping and a weather typing. The hydrological model used in the study is distributed and it is applied to the Mediterranean basins of France. The study shows that both quantile mapping and weather typing methods are able to reproduce the high and low precipitation extremes in the region of interest. The study also shows that when the hydrological model is forced with these downscaled data, there are important differences in the outputs. This shows that the model amplifies the differences and that the downscaling of other atmospheric variables might be very relevant when simulating river discharges. In terms of river flow, the method of the anomalies, which is very simple, performs better than expected. The methods produce qualitatively similar future scenarios of the extremes of river flow. However, quantitatively, there are still significant differences between them for each individual gauging station. According to these scenarios, it is expected that in the middle of the 21st century (2035–2064), the monthly low flows will have diminished almost everywhere in the region of our study by as much as 20 %. Regarding high flows, there will be important increases in the area of the Cévennes, which is already seriously affected by flash-floods. For some gauging stations in this area, the frequency of what was a 10-yr return flood at the end of the 20th century is expected to increase, with such return floods then occurring every two years in the middle of the 21st century. Similarly, the 10-yr return floods at that time are expected to carry 100 % more water than the 10-yr return floods experienced at the end of the 20th century. In the northern part of the Rhône basin, these extremes will be reduced.

The SMOSMANIA soil moisture network in Southwestern France is used to evaluate modelled and remotely sensed soil moisture products. The surface soil moisture (SSM) measured in situ at 5 cm permits to evaluate SSM from the SIM operational hydrometeorological model of Météo-France and to perform a cross-evaluation of the normalised SSM estimates derived from coarse-resolution (25 km) active microwave observations from the ASCAT scatterometer instrument (C-band, onboard METOP), issued by EUMETSAT and resampled to the Discrete Global Grid (DGG, 12.5 km gridspacing) by TU-Wien (Vienna University of Technology) over a two year period (2007–2008). A downscaled ASCAT product at one kilometre scale is evaluated as well, together with operational soil moisture products of two meteorological services, namely the ALADIN numerical weather prediction model (NWP) and the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) analysis of Météo-France and ECMWF, respectively. In addition to the operational SSM analysis of ECMWF, a second analysis using a simplified extended Kalman filter and assimilating the ASCAT SSM estimates is tested. The ECMWF SSM estimates correlate better with the in situ observations than the Météo-France products. This may be due to the higher ability of the multi-layer land surface model used at ECMWF to represent the soil moisture profile. However, the SSM derived from SIM corresponds to a thin soil surface layer and presents good correlations with ASCAT SSM estimates for the very first centimetres of soil. At ECMWF, the use of a new data assimilation technique, which is able to use the ASCAT SSM, improves the SSM and the root-zone soil moisture analyses.

Two Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Systems (ESPSs) have been set up at Météo-France. They are based on the French SIM distributed hydrometeorological model. A deterministic analysis run of SIM is used to initialize the two ESPSs. In order to obtain a better initial state, a past discharges assimilation system has been implemented into this analysis SIM run, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). Its role is to improve the model soil moisture by using streamflow observations in order to better simulate streamflow. The skills of the assimilation system were assessed for a 569-day period on six different configurations, including two different physics schemes of the model (the use of an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity or not) and, for each one, three different ways of considering the model soil moisture in the BLUE state variables. Respect of the linearity hypothesis of the BLUE was verified by assessing of the impact of iterations of the BLUE. The configuration including the use of the exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity and the combination of the moisture of the two soil layers in the state variable showed a significant improvement of streamflow simulations. It led to a significantly better simulation than the reference one, and the lowest soil moisture corrections. These results were confirmed by the study of the impacts of the past discharge assimilation system on a set of 49 independent stations.

The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics) ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc.), especially for the first few days of the time range. The assimilation was slightly more efficient for small basins than for large ones.

Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc.) on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM) hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI) – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI). Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow). Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990) to short hot and dry periods (2003). Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly on both the time scale and the variable considered. This multilevel and multiscale drought climatology will serve as a basis for assessing the impacts of climate change on droughts in France.

The Somme River Basin is located above a chalk aquifer and the discharge of the somme River is highly influenced by groundwater inflow (90% of river discharge is baseflow). In 2001, the Somme River Basin suffered from a major flood causing damages estimated to 100 million euro (Deneux and Martin, 2001). The purpose of the present research is to evaluate the ability of four hydrologic models to reproduce flood events in the Somme River Basin over an 18-year period, by comparison with observed river discharge and piezometric level as well as satellite-derived extents of flooded area. The models used differ in their computation of surface water budget and in their representation of saturated and unsaturated zones. One model needed structural modification to be able to accurately simulate the riverflows of the Somme river. The models obtained fair to good simulations of the observed piezometric levels, but they all overestimate the piezometric level after flooding, possibly because of a simplistic representation of deep unsaturated flow. Models differ in their annual partition of the infiltration of water within the root zone (mostly driven by simulated evapotranspiration), but these differences are attenuated by water transfers within the saturated and unsaturated zone. As a consequence, the inter-model dispersion of the computed annual baseflow is reduced. The aquifer overflow areas simulated during flooding compare well with local data and satellite images. The models showed that this overflow occurs almost every year in the same areas (in floodplain), and that the flooding of 2001 was characterized by an increase in the quantity of the overflow and not much by a spreading of the overflow areas. Inconsistencies between river discharge and piezometric levels suggest that further investigation are needed to estimate the relative influence of unsaturated and saturated zones on the hydrodynamics of the Somme River Basin.