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Abridged English-language version of the annual IMEMO forecast ‘Russia and the World: 2022’ is dedicated to the analysis and the forecast of key trends in the world economy and international relations in 2022. The primary focus is on the issues that are of fundamental importance for ensuring stable economic and political development of Russia in the near (2022) and more distant future. In the preparation of the paper, the long-term experience of predictive research carried out by IMEMO RAS was used. The paper consists of three parts: global trends, economics, and foreign policy. Among the global trends accelerated digitalization and all related social, political, and economic changes; focus on technological competition; climate/environmental and energy agendas are coming to the fore; increasing geopolitical and geo-economic tensions and the raging global pandemic of COVID-19 are highlighted. In the world economy, the authors of the paper expect an increase in inflation, acceleration of digitalization amid intensifying technology competition and the pursuit of digital sovereignty, acceleration of decarbonization, launch of demethanization process, and shifts in food systems. The paper further assesses the prospects of the leading industry drivers of world economic growth in 2022: production of semiconductors; pharmaceuticals and biomedicine; rare earth, non-ferrous, and ferrous metals. In the next section of the paper, political and social trends are analyzed in the countries of North America, Europe, Pacific and South Asia, Post-Soviet space. The final section of the paper gives the forecast of the relations of the Russian Federation with its key foreign partners. Against the backdrop of the renewal of the global economy, which includes energy transition and accelerated digitalization, it is becoming vitally important for Russia to conduct a comprehensive balanced restructuring of the national economy and social sphere. Translation: Artamonova U.Z., Samarskaya L.M., Sokolova P.S., Urumov T.R., translation editors Mamedyarov Z.A., Moiseeva D.E.

In an effort to establish a clear relation between stable isotopes and altitude in the Pamir region, as well as to improve the understanding of stable isotope spatial variations found along the routes taken by the westerlies, surface river water samples were collected along a roughly west–east profile in Tajikistan. Here we present the spatial changes in modern surface water δ 18 O and deuterium excess ( d -excess), and their links with snow melt, glacier melt and seasonal precipitation patterns in Tajikistan. The results show a close relation between river water δ 18 O and δD above the GMWL (Global Meteoric Water Line), implying that surface evaporation exerts a weaker influence. Spatially, river water δ 18 O is gradually depleted from west to east due mainly to the effect of altitude, yielding a river water δ 18 O vertical lapse rate of 0.09‰/100 m. River water d -excess shows a decreasing trend from west to east in Tajikistan. This spatial d -excess pattern in surface water is explained by the different moistures influenced by the Mediterranean and other in-land seas with higher d -excess in west, and no-Mediterranean moisture in east. Another possible reason is the differences in precipitation seasonality between the west and east of Tajikistan.

The 1997–1998 financial crisis brought the issue of necessity to implement deep structural reforms to the agenda in South-East Asia countries. Domestic consumption encouragement, increase of cooperation between different countries' real sectors of economy and strengthening the role of the ASEAN countries in both anti-crisis arrangements and arriving at consensus on interaction with communication partners became focus areas. The detailed specification of measures assumed by particular countries of the region to mitigate crisis effects, stabilize economy and formulate a strategy of economic growth is presented in the article.