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Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and land use and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023–2024 fire season, 3.9×106 km2 burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but fire carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global fire C emissions were increased by record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and reduced by low emissions from African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking fire extent and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern parts of South America, and deadly fires in Hawaii (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people were evacuated in Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece, a combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of fires, whereas burned area anomalies were weaker in regions with lower fuel loads and higher direct suppression, particularly in Canada. Fire weather prediction in Canada showed a mild anomalous signal 1 to 2 months in advance, whereas events in Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution analyses indicated that modelled anomalies in burned area were up to 40 %, 18 %, and 50 % higher due to climate change in Canada, Greece, and western Amazonia during the 2023–2024 fire season, respectively. Meanwhile, the probability of extreme fire seasons of these magnitudes has increased significantly due to anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9–3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in Canada and a 20.0–28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). This report represents our first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land managers, we aim to enhance society's resilience to wildfires and promote advances in preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation. New datasets presented in this work are available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley et al., 2024a).

Abstract Various fire emission estimates for southern Africa during 2019, derived with multiple burned area data sets with resolutions ranging from 500 to 20 m, are evaluated using satellite carbon monoxide (CO) observations. Southern African emissions derived from burned area generated by 20 m Sentinel‐2 satellite imagery are up to 120% higher than other estimates because small fires are better detected with a higher‐resolution satellite instrument. A comprehensive comparison between simulated and observed atmospheric CO indicates that the Sentinel‐2 burned area data significantly improves emission estimates, with up to 15% reduction in CO concentration biases in comparison to emissions based on coarser resolution burned area data. We also found that the temporal lag between emissions and atmospheric CO concentrations during the peak fire month was related to atmospheric transport. These findings emphasize the importance of utilizing higher‐resolution satellite instruments in accurately estimating emissions and understanding the impact of small fires on global climate.

Accurate and spatially explicit information on forest fuels becomes essential to designing an integrated fire risk management strategy, as fuel characteristics are critical for fire danger estimation, fire propagation, and emissions modelling, among other aspects. This paper proposes a new European fuel classification system that can be used for different spatial scales and purposes (propagation, behaviour, and emissions). The proposed classification system is hierarchical and encompasses a total of 85 fuel types, grouped into six main fuel categories (forest, shrubland, grassland, cropland, wet and peat/semi-peat land, and urban), plus a nonfuel category. For the forest cover, fuel types include two vertical strata, overstorey and understorey, to account for both surface and canopy fuels. In addition, this paper presents the methods to map fuel types at the European scale, including the first-level of the classification system. Land cover, biogeographic datasets, and bioclimatic modelling were used. The final map, which is publicly available (https://doi.org/10.21950/YABYCN; Aragoneses et al., 2022a), included 20 fuel categories at 1 km spatial resolution. A first assessment of this map was performed using field information obtained from LUCAS (Land Use and Coverage Area frame Survey), complemented with high-resolution data. This validation exercise provided an overall accuracy of 88 % for the main fuel types and 81 % for all mapped fuel types. To facilitate the use of this fuel dataset in fire behaviour modelling, an assignment of fuel parameters to each fuel type was performed by developing a crosswalk to the standard fuel models defined by Scott and Burgan (2005; FBFMs – Fire Behavior Fuel Models), considering European climate diversity. This work has been developed within the framework of the FirEUrisk project, which aims to create a European-integrated strategy for fire danger assessment, reduction, and adaptation.

Fire is a natural phenomenon that has played a critical role in transforming the environment and maintaining biodiversity at a global scale. However, the plants in some habitats have not developed strategies for recovery from fire or have not adapted to the changes taking place in their fire regimes. Maps showing ecological vulnerability to fires could contribute to environmental management policies in the face of global change scenarios. The main objective of this study is to assess and map ecological vulnerability to fires on a global scale. To this end, we created ecological value and post-fire regeneration delay indices on the basis of existing global databases. Two ecological value indices were identified: biological distinction and conservation status. For the post-fire regeneration delay index, various factors were taken into account, including the type of fire regime, the increase in the frequency and intensity of forest fires, and the potential soil erosion they can cause. These indices were combined by means of a qualitative cross-tabulation to create a new index evaluating ecological vulnerability to fire. The results showed that global ecological value could be reduced by as much as 50 % due to fire perturbation of poorly adapted ecosystems. The terrestrial biomes most affected are the tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forest, tundra, mangroves, tropical and subtropical coniferous forests, and tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests.

Over the past 2 decades, several global burned area products have been produced and released to the public. However, the accuracy assessment of such products largely depends on the availability of reliable reference data that currently do not exist on a global scale or whose production require a high level of dedication of project resources. The important lack of reference data for the validation of burned area products is addressed in this paper. We provide the Burned Area Reference Database (BARD), the first publicly available database created by compiling existing reference BA (burned area) datasets from different international projects. BARD contains a total of 2661 reference files derived from Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. All those files have been checked for internal quality and are freely provided by the authors. To ensure database consistency, all files were transformed to a common format and were properly documented by following metadata standards. The goal of generating this database was to give BA algorithm developers and product testers reference information that would help them to develop or validate new BA products. BARD is freely available at https://doi.org/10.21950/BBQQU7 (Franquesa et al., 2020).

Recent climate changes have increased fire-prone weather conditions in many regions and have likely affected fire occurrence, which might impact ecosystem functioning, biogeochemical cycles, and society. Prediction of how fire impacts may change in the future is difficult because of the complexity of the controls on fire occurrence and burned area. Here we aim to assess how process-based fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) represent relationships between controlling factors and burned area. We developed a pattern-oriented model evaluation approach using the random forest (RF) algorithm to identify emergent relationships between climate, vegetation, and socio-economic predictor variables and burned area. We applied this approach to monthly burned area time series for the period from 2005 to 2011 from satellite observations and from DGVMs from the “Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project” (FireMIP) that were run using a common protocol and forcing data sets. The satellite-derived relationships indicate strong sensitivity to climate variables (e.g. maximum temperature, number of wet days), vegetation properties (e.g. vegetation type, previous-season plant productivity and leaf area, woody litter), and to socio-economic variables (e.g. human population density). DGVMs broadly reproduce the relationships with climate variables and, for some models, with population density. Interestingly, satellite-derived responses show a strong increase in burned area with an increase in previous-season leaf area index and plant productivity in most fire-prone ecosystems, which was largely underestimated by most DGVMs. Hence, our pattern-oriented model evaluation approach allowed us to diagnose that vegetation effects on fire are a main deficiency regarding fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models' ability to accurately simulate the role of fire under global environmental change.

This paper presents a new global burned area (BA) product, generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) red (R) and near-infrared (NIR) reflectances and thermal anomaly data, thus providing the highest spatial resolution (approx. 250 m) among the existing global BA datasets. The product includes the full times series (2001–2016) of the Terra-MODIS archive. The BA detection algorithm was based on monthly composites of daily images, using temporal and spatial distance to active fires. The algorithm has two steps, the first one aiming to reduce commission errors by selecting the most clearly burned pixels (seeds), and the second one targeting to reduce omission errors by applying contextual analysis around the seed pixels. This product was developed within the European Space Agency's (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme, under the Fire Disturbance project (Fire_cci). The final output includes two types of BA files: monthly full-resolution continental tiles and biweekly global grid files at a degraded resolution of 0.25°. Each set of products includes several auxiliary variables that were defined by the climate users to facilitate the ingestion of the product into global dynamic vegetation and atmospheric emission models. Average annual burned area from this product was 3.81 Mkm2, with maximum burning in 2011 (4.1 Mkm2) and minimum in 2013 (3.24 Mkm2). The validation was based on a stratified random sample of 1200 pairs of Landsat images, covering the whole globe from 2003 to 2014. The validation indicates an overall accuracy of 0.9972, with much higher errors for the burned than the unburned category (global omission error of BA was estimated as 0.7090 and global commission as 0.5123). These error values are similar to other global BA products, but slightly higher than the NASA BA product (named MCD64A1, which is produced at 500 m resolution). However, commission and omission errors are better compensated in our product, with a tendency towards BA underestimation (relative bias −0.4033), as most existing global BA products. To understand the value of this product in detecting small fire patches ( https://www.esa-fire-cci.org/, last access: 10 November 2018) and their repositories (pixel at full resolution: https://doi.org/cpk7, and grid: https://doi.org/gcx9gf).

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven modelling and model–data integration approaches can guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation-fire models.

The main objective of this study is to take a close look at post-fire recovery patterns in forestry areas under different burn severity conditions. We also investigate the time that forestry ecosystems take to recover their pre-fire condition. In this context, this study analyses both the level of severity in Uncastillo forest wildfire (7.664ha), one of the greatest occurred in Spain in 1994, and the pattern of natural recovery in the following decades (until 2014) using annual Landsat time series (sensors TM&ETM+). Burn severity has been estimated by means of PROSPECT and GeoSAIL radiative transfer models following methodologies described in De Santis and Chuvieco (2009). On the other hand, recovery processes have been assessed from spectral profiles using the LandTrendr model (Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery) (Kennedy et al., 2010). Results contribute to a further understanding of the post-fire evolution in forestry areas and to develop effective strategies for sustainable forest management.

This study presents the methods for the generation of the first global fuel data set, containing all the parameters required to be input in the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS). The data set was developed from different spatial variables, both based on satellite Earth observation products and fuel databases, and is comprised by a global fuelbed map and a database that includes the parameters of each fuelbed that affect fire behavior and effects. A total of 274 fuelbeds were created and parameterized, and can be input into FCCS to obtain fire potentials, surface fire behavior and carbon biomass for each fuelbed. We present a first assessment of the fuel data set by comparing the carbon biomass obtained from our FCCS fuelbeds with the average biome values of four other regional or global biomass products. The results showed a good agreement both in terms of geographical distribution and biomass loads when compared to other biomass data, with the best results found for tropical and boreal forests (Spearman's coefficient of 0.79 and 0.77). This global fuel data set may be used for a varied range of applications, including fire danger assessment, fire behavior estimations, fuel consumption calculations and emissions inventories.

This paper presents the methodology used for the development of a fuel map for the African Continent, using FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System). The cartography of the fuelbeds was based on global cartographic information obtained from remote sensing imaging, and the variables associated to each fuelbed were extracted from existing vegetation databases. A total of 75 fuelbeds were developed, and from the variables assigned to each of them, different Fire Potentials were calculated using default environmental variables. These potentials allow the estimation of surface fire behavior, crown fire and available fuel, depending on the characteristics of the existing vegetation.

This paper shows the interest of laboratory hyperspectral measurements to estimate fuel moisture content for fire risk assessment. Measurements were obtained for two Mediterranean forest species over a controlled water stress experiment. The hyperspectral measurements were performed with a Specim camera, sensible to spectral reflectance from 900 to 1700 nm. We calculated the spectral correlation with variations in the moisture content, both for the camera raw bands as well as for those adjusted to the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) sensor. High correlation values were obtained for moisture content measurements and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), both for Q. suber (r=0.803 with the FMC and r=0.846 for EWT), and for the Q. robur (r=0.705 with the FMC and r=0.802 for EWT). Our work asserts that both parameters can be estimated with appropriate accuracy using satellite images.

En este artículo se muestra la capacidad operativa de la teledetección para responder de forma casi inmediata a la demanda de información en una situación de crisis generada por los incendios forestales que afectaron a Galicia en agosto de 2006. La interpretación visual de imágenes obtenidas por los satélites AQUA/ TERRA-MODIS, con una resolución espacial de 500 y 250 metros, permitió cartografiar las zonas afectadas y obtener una rápida evaluación de los daños, incluyendo una estimación de los niveles de severidad de las áreas quemadas. Las imágenes procedentes del sensor IRS-AWiFS, de mayor resolución espacial (60 metros), facilitaron una evaluación y delimitación más precisa de las áreas quemadas. La información generada fue difundida a gestores, investigadores y público en general mediante una página web y un servidor cartográfico diseñado a tal efecto.

Humans are responsible for most forest fires in Europe, but anthropogenic factors behind these events are still poorly understood. We tried to identify the driving factors of human-caused fire occurrence in Spain by applying two different statistical approaches. Firstly, assuming stationary processes for the whole country, we created models based on multiple linear regression and binary logistic regression to find factors associated with fire density and fire presence, respectively. Secondly, we used geographically weighted regression (GWR) to better understand and explore the local and regional variations of those factors behind human-caused fire occurrence. The number of human-caused fires occurring within a 25-yr period (1983–2007) was computed for each of the 7638 Spanish mainland municipalities, creating a binary variable (fire/no fire) to develop logistic models, and a continuous variable (fire density) to build standard linear regression models. A total of 383 657 fires were registered in the study dataset. The binary logistic model, which estimates the probability of having/not having a fire, successfully classified 76.4% of the total observations, while the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model explained 53% of the variation of the fire density patterns (adjusted R2 = 0.53). Both approaches confirmed, in addition to forest and climatic variables, the importance of variables related with agrarian activities, land abandonment, rural population exodus and developmental processes as underlying factors of fire occurrence. For the GWR approach, the explanatory power of the GW linear model for fire density using an adaptive bandwidth increased from 53% to 67%, while for the GW logistic model the correctly classified observations improved only slightly, from 76.4% to 78.4%, but significantly according to the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), from 3451.19 to 3321.19. The results from GWR indicated a significant spatial variation in the local parameter estimates for all the variables and an important reduction of the autocorrelation in the residuals of the GW linear model. Despite the fitting improvement of local models, GW regression, more than an alternative to "global" or traditional regression modelling, seems to be a valuable complement to explore the non-stationary relationships between the response variable and the explanatory variables. The synergy of global and local modelling provides insights into fire management and policy and helps further our understanding of the fire problem over large areas while at the same time recognizing its local character.

The European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative (CCI) is part of the European contribution to the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program. Fire disturbance is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) included in the ESA CCI program. It focus on mapping burned area (BA) using European sensors (ATSR, VEGETATION and MERIS data), and in comparing the performance of the results with other existing datasets. The project aims at developing and validating algorithms to produce consistent, stable, error-characterized global BA information. The project includes as well developing algorithms to generate georeferenced and calibrated reflectances of (A)ATSR, VEGETATION and MERIS data, identifying potential sources of confusion with burned areas (clouds, smoke, cloud shadows, water, snow, topographic shadows). The final product will be a merging of BA information derived from three different sensors . The outputs will be adapted to the needs of the atmospheric and vegetation modelling communities.

El uso de modelos de simulación de la reflectividad (MSR) para la estimación de parámetros biofísicos mediante imágenes de satélite se ha desarrollado notablemente en los últimos años, gracias a su poder de generalización. No obstante, resultan complejos de parametrizar, lo que dificulta su uso operativo. En este trabajo se presentan los principales problemas que plantea el uso de los MSR en teledetección, resaltando la importancia de considerar relaciones ecofisiológicas entre las variables de entrada de estos modelos. Se presenta como caso práctico la estimación del contenido de humedad de matorrales mediterráneos a partir de imágenes MODIS, empleando los MSR denominados PROSPECT y SAILH. El análisis muestra cómo, al considerar la co-variación de las variables de entrada en la parametrización de los MSR se logran estimaciones más precisas (con errores medios cercanos al 30%) que si las variables se parámetrizan aleatoriamente (errores próximos al 50%).

Global coarse-resolution (≥250 m) burned area (BA) products have been used to estimate fire related forest loss, but we hypothesised that a significant part of fire impacts might be undetected because of the underestimation of small fires (<100 ha), especially in the tropics. In this paper, we analysed fire-related forest cover loss in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2016 and 2019 based on a BA product generated from Sentinel-2 data (20 m), which was observed to have significantly lower omission errors than the coarse-resolution BA products. Using these higher resolution BA datasets, we found that fires contribute to >46 % of total forest losses over SSA, more than twice the estimates from coarse-resolution BA products. In addition, burned forest areas showed more than twofold likelihood of subsequent loss compared to unburned ones. In moist tropical forests, the most fire-vulnerable biome, burning had even six times more chance to precede forest loss than unburned areas. We also found that fire-related characteristics, such as fire size and season, and forest fragmentation play a major role in the determination of tree cover fate. Our results reveal that medium-resolution BA detects more fires in late fire season, which tend to have higher impact on forests than early season ones. On the other hand, small fires represented the major driver of forest loss after fires and the vast majority of these losses occur in fragmented landscapes near forest edge (<260 m). Therefore medium-resolution BA products are required to obtain a more accurate evaluation of fire impacts in tropical ecosystems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

We assembled the first gridded burned area (BA) database of national wildfire data (ONFIRE), a comprehensive and integrated resource for researchers, non-government organisations, and government agencies analysing wildfires in various regions of the Earth. We extracted and harmonised records from different regions and sources using open and reproducible methods, providing data in a common framework for the whole period available (starting from 1950 in Australia, 1959 in Canada, 1985 in Chile, 1980 in Europe, and 1984 in the United States) up to 2021 on a common 1° × 1° grid. The data originate from national agencies (often, ground mapping), thus representing the best local expert knowledge. Key opportunities and limits in using this dataset are discussed as well as possible future expansions of this open-source approach that should be explored. This dataset complements existing gridded BA data based on remote sensing and offers a valuable opportunity to better understand and assess fire regime changes, and their drivers, in these regions. The ONFIRE database can be freely accessed at https://zenodo.org/record/8289245 ., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Globe-LFMC 2.0, an updated version of Globe-LFMC, is a comprehensive dataset of over 280,000 Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) measurements. These measurements were gathered through field campaigns conducted in 15 countries spanning 47 years. In contrast to its prior version, Globe-LFMC 2.0 incorporates over 120,000 additional data entries, introduces more than 800 new sampling sites, and comprises LFMC values obtained from samples collected until the calendar year 2023. Each entry within the dataset provides essential information, including date, geographical coordinates, plant species, functional type, and, where available, topographical details. Moreover, the dataset encompasses insights into the sampling and weighing procedures, as well as information about land cover type and meteorological conditions at the time and location of each sampling event. Globe-LFMC 2.0 can facilitate advanced LFMC research, supporting studies on wildfire behaviour, physiological traits, ecological dynamics, and land surface modelling, whether remote sensing-based or otherwise. This dataset represents a valuable resource for researchers exploring the diverse LFMC aspects, contributing to the broader field of environmental and ecological research., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Analysing wildfire initiation patterns and identifying their primary drivers is essential for the development of more efficient fire prevention strategies. However, such analyses have traditionally been conducted at local or national scales, hindering cross-border comparisons and the formulation of broad-scale policy initiatives. In this study, we present an analysis of the spatial variability of wildfire initiations across Europe, focusing specifically on moderate to large fires (> 100 ha), and examining the influence of both human and climatic factors on initiation areas. We estimated drivers of fire initiation using machine learning algorithms, specifically Random Forest (RF), covering the majority of the European territory (referred to as the "ET scale"). The models were trained using data on fire initiations extracted from a satellite burned area product, comprising fires occurring from 2001 to 2019. We developed six RF models: three considering all fires larger than 100 ha, and three focused solely on the largest events (> 1000 ha). Models were developed using climatic and human predictors separately, as well as both types of predictors mixed together. We found that both climatic and mixed models demonstrated moderate predictive capacity, with AUC values ranging from 79 % to 81 %; while models based only on human variables have had poor predictive capacity (AUC of 60 %). Feature importance analysis, using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), allowed us to assess the primary drivers of wildfire initiations across the European Territory. Aridity and evapotranspiration had the strongest effect on fire initiation. Among human variables, population density and aging had considerable effects on fire initiation, the former with a strong effect in mixed models estimating large fires, while the latter had a more important role in the prediction of very large fires. Distance to roads and forest-agriculture interfaces were also relevant in some initiation models. A better understanding of drivers of main fire events should help designing European forest fire management strategies, particularly in the light of growing importance of climate change, as it would affect both fire severity and areas at risk. Factors of fire initiation should also be part of a comprehensive approach for fire risk assessment, reduction and adaption, contributing to more effective wildfire management and mitigation across the continent., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those in tropical forests, although boreal forests are one of the most extensive biomes on Earth and are experiencing the fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions in boreal forests. Wildfires are rapidly expanding into boreal forests with emerging warmer and drier fire seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons of carbon) in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers of extreme boreal fires and stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Coarse resolution sensors are not very sensitive at detecting small fire patches, making current estimations of global burned areas (BA) very conservative. Using medium or high-resolution sensors to generate BA products becomes then a priority, particularly in areas where fires tend to be small and frequent. Building on previous work that developed a small fire dataset (SFD) for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2016, this paper presents a new version of the dataset for 2019 using the two Sentinel-2 satellites (A and B) and VIIRS active fires. Total estimated BA was 4.8 Mkm 2 . This value was much higher than estimations from two global, coarser-spatial resolution BA products based on MODIS data for the same area and period: 80 % greater than estimates from FireCCI51 (based on MODIS 250 m bands) and 120 % larger than MCD64A1 (based on MODIS 500 m bands). The main differences were observed in those months with higher fire occurrence (November to January for the Northern Hemisphere regions and June to September for the Southern Hemisphere ones). Accuracy assessment of the SFD product was based on a novel sampling strategy designed to obtain independent fire reference perimeters. Validation results showed remarkable high accuracy values comparing to existing global BA products. Overall omission errors (OE) were estimated as 8.5 %, commission errors (CE) as 15.0 %, with a Dice Coefficient of 87.7 %. All of these estimations implied significant improvements over the global, coarser spatial resolution BA products (OE > 50 % and CE > 20 % for the same area and period), as well as over the previous SFD product for 2016 of the same area, generated from a single Sentinel-2 satellite and MODIS active fires (OE = 26.5 % and CE = 19.3 %). Temporal accuracies greatly increased as well with the new product, with 92.5 % of fires detected within the first 10 days of occurrence., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Satellites have detected a global decline in burned area of grassland, coincident with a small increase in burned forest area. These contrasting trends have been reported in earlier literature; however, less is known of their impacts on global fire emission trends due to the scarcity of direct observations. We use an atmospheric inversion system to show that global fire emissions have been stable or slightly decreasing despite the substantial decline in global burned area over the past two decades caused by the carbon dioxide emission increase from forest fires offsetting the decreasing emissions from grass and shrubland fires. Forest fires are larger carbon dioxide sources per unit area burned than grassland fires, with a slow or incomplete follow-up recovery—sometimes no recovery due to degradation and deforestation. With fires expanding over forest areas, the slow recovery of carbon dioxide uptake over burned forest lands weakens land sink capacity, implying positive feedback on climate change.

Biomass burning is one of the most critical factors impacting vegetation and atmospheric trends, with important societal implications, particularly when extreme weather conditions occur. Trends and factors of burned area (BA) have been analysed at regional and global scales, but little effort has been dedicated to study the interannual variability. This paper aimed to better understand factors explaining this variation, under the assumption that the more human control of fires the more frequently they occur, as burnings will be less dependent of weather cycles. Interannual variability of BA was estimated from the coefficient of variation of the annual BA (BA&#95;CV) estimated from satellite data at 250 m, covering the period from 2001 to 2018. These data and the explanatory variables were resampled at 0.25-degree resolution for global analysis. Relations between this variable and explanatory factors, including human and climate drivers, were estimated using Random Forest (RF) and generalized additive models (GAM). BA&#95;CV was negatively related to BA&#95;Mean, implying that areas with higher average BA have lower variability as well. Interannual BA variability decreased when maximum temperature (TMAX) and actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET) increased, cropland and livestock density increased and the human development index (HDI) values decreased. GAM models indicated interesting links with AET, PET and precipitation, with negative relation with BA&#95;CV for the lower ranges and positive for the higher ones, the former indicating fuel limitations of fire activity, and the latter climate constrains. For the global RF model, TMAX, AET and HDI were the main drivers of interannual variability. As originally hypothesised, BA&#95;CV was more dependent on human factors (HDI) in those areas with medium to large BA occurrence, particularly in tropical Africa and Central Asia, while climatic factors were more important in boreal regions, but also in the tropical regions of Australia and South America., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Fires are a major contributor to atmospheric budgets of greenhouse gases and aerosols, affect soils and vegetation properties, and are a key driver of land use change. Since the 1990s, global burned area (BA) estimates based on satellite observations have provided critical insights into patterns and trends of fire occurrence. However, these global BA products are based on coarse spatial-resolution sensors, which are unsuitable for detecting small fires that burn only a fraction of a satellite pixel. We estimated the relevance of those small fires by comparing a BA product generated from Sentinel-2 MSI (Multispectral Instrument) images (20-m spatial resolution) with a widely used global BA product based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images (500 m) focusing on sub-Saharan Africa. For the year 2016, we detected 80% more BA with Sentinel-2 images than with the MODIS product. This difference was predominately related to small fires: we observed that 2.02 Mkm 2 (out of a total of 4.89 Mkm 2 ) was burned by fires smaller than 100 ha, whereas the MODIS product only detected 0.13 million km 2 BA in that fire-size class. This increase in BA subsequently resulted in increased estimates of fire emissions; we computed 31 to 101% more fire carbon emissions than current estimates based on MODIS products. We conclude that small fires are a critical driver of BA in sub-Saharan Africa and that including those small fires in emission estimates raises the contribution of biomass burning to global burdens of (greenhouse) gases and aerosols., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Globe-LFMC is an extensive global database of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) measured from 1,383 sampling sites in 11 countries: Argentina, Australia, China, France, Italy, Senegal, Spain, South Africa, Tunisia, United Kingdom and the United States of America. The database contains 161,717 individual records based on in situ destructive samples used to measure LFMC, representing the amount of water in plant leaves per unit of dry matter. The primary goal of the database is to calibrate and validate remote sensing algorithms used to predict LFMC. However, this database is also relevant for the calibration and validation of dynamic global vegetation models, eco-physiological models of plant water stress as well as understanding the physiological drivers of spatiotemporal variation in LFMC at local, regional and global scales. Globe-LFMC should be useful for studying LFMC trends in response to environmental change and LFMC influence on wildfire occurrence, wildfire behavior, and overall vegetation health.

This paper identifies human factors associated with high forest fire risk in Spain and analyses the spatial distribution of fire occurrence in the country. The spatial units were 6,066 municipalities of the Spanish peninsular territory and Balearic Islands. The study covered a 13-year series of fire occurrence data. One hundred and eight variables were generated and input to a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) to model different factors related to fire ignition. After exploratory analysis, 29 were selected to build a predictive model of human fire ignition using logistic regression analysis. The binary model estimated the probability of high or low occurrence of forest fires, as defined by an ignition danger index that is currently used by the Spanish forest service (number of fires divided by forest area in each municipality). Thirteen explanatory variables were identified by the model. They were related to agricultural landscape fragmentation, agricultural abandonment and development processes. The prediction agreement found between the model binary outputs and the historical fire data was 85.3% for the model building dataset (60% of municipalities). A slightly lower predictive power (76.2%) was found for the validation data (the remaining 40%). The probabilistic output of the logistic was significantly related to the raw ignition index (Spearman correlation of 0.710) used by the Spanish Forest Service. Therefore, the model can be considered a good predictor of human-caused fire risk, aiding spatial decisions related to prevention planning in Spanish municipalities.

This paper presents results of the AQL2004 project, which has been develope within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLatif). The project intended to obtain monthly burned-land maps of the entire region, from Mexico to Patagonia, using MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) reflectance data. The project has been organized in three different phases: acquisition and preprocessing of satellite data; discrimination of burned pixels; and validation of results. In the first phase, input data consisting of 32-day composites of MODIS 500-m reflectance data generated by the Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) of the University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland, U.S.A.) were collected and processed. The discrimination of burned areas was addressed in two steps: searching for "burned core" pixels using postfire spectral indices and multitemporal change detection and mapping of burned scars using contextual techniques. The validation phase was based on visual analysis of Landsat and CBERS (China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite) images. Validation of the burned-land category showed an agreement ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on the ecosystem and vegetation species present. The total burned area for the entire year was estimated to be 153 215 km2. The most affected countries in relation to their territory were Cuba, Colombia, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Burned areas were found in most land covers; herbaceous vegetation (savannas and grasslands) presented the highest proportions of burned area, while perennial forest had the lowest proportions. The importance of croplands in the total burned area should be taken with reserve, since this cover presented the highest commission errors. The importance of generating systematic products of burned land areas for different ecological processes is emphasized.