1. Conditional survival after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery for oesophageal cancer
- Author
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M. I. van Berge Henegouwen, H.W.M. van Laarhoven, E R C Hagens, Maarten C.C.M. Hulshof, Suzanne S. Gisbertz, M L Feenstra, Wietse J. Eshuis, Surgery, Internal medicine, VU University medical center, CCA - Cancer Treatment and quality of life, Graduate School, AGEM - Digestive immunity, AGEM - Endocrinology, metabolism and nutrition, AGEM - Re-generation and cancer of the digestive system, CCA - Cancer Treatment and Quality of Life, AGEM - Amsterdam Gastroenterology Endocrinology Metabolism, CCA -Cancer Center Amsterdam, Radiotherapy, and Oncology
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Esophageal Neoplasms ,medicine.medical_treatment ,Adenocarcinoma ,030230 surgery ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Clinical Decision Rules ,medicine ,Upper GI ,Humans ,Survival analysis ,Neoadjuvant therapy ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Proportional hazards model ,business.industry ,Retrospective cohort study ,Original Articles ,Chemoradiotherapy, Adjuvant ,Middle Aged ,Nomogram ,Esophageal cancer ,medicine.disease ,Survival Analysis ,Neoadjuvant Therapy ,Surgery ,Esophagectomy ,Nomograms ,Treatment Outcome ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Carcinoma, Squamous Cell ,Original Article ,Female ,business ,Chemoradiotherapy ,Follow-Up Studies - Abstract
Background Conditional survival accounts for the time already survived after surgery and may be of additional informative value. The aim was to assess conditional survival in patients with oesophageal cancer and to create a nomogram predicting the conditional probability of survival after oesophagectomy. Methods This retrospective study included consecutive patients with oesophageal cancer who received neoadjuvant chemoradiation followed by oesophagectomy between January 2004 and 2019. Conditional survival was defined as the probability of surviving y years after already surviving for x years. The formula used for conditional survival (CS) was: CS(x|y) = S(x + y)/S(x), where S(x) represents overall survival at x years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of overall survival. A nomogram was constructed to predict 5‐year survival directly after surgery and given survival for 1, 2, 3 and 4 years after surgery. Results Some 660 patients were included. Median overall survival was 44·4 (95 per cent c.i. 37·0 to 51·8) months. The probability of achieving 5‐year overall survival after resection increased from 45 per cent directly after surgery to 54, 65, 79 and 88 per cent given 1, 2, 3 and 4 years already survived respectively. Cardiac co‐morbidity, cN category, ypT category, ypN category, chyle leakage and pulmonary complications were independent predictors of survival. The nomogram predicted 5‐year survival using these predictors and number of years already survived. Conclusion The probability of achieving 5‐year overall survival after oesophagectomy for cancer increases with each additional year survived. The proposed nomogram predicts survival in patients after oesophagectomy, taking the years already survived into account., Conditional survival accounts for the time already survived after surgery and may be of additional informative value. A nomogram was constructed that predicts 5‐year survival of patients with oesophageal cancer after neoadjuvant treatment followed by surgery, based on cardiac co‐morbidity, cN category, ypTN stage, chyle leakage and pulmonary complications, taking years already survived into account. Informative for patient and doctor
- Published
- 2020
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