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Emigration has contributed to a shortage of doctors in many sub-Saharan African countries. Specialty training is highly valued by doctors and a potential tool for retention. Yet not all types of training may be valued equally. In the first study to examine preferences for postgraduate training in depth, we carried out a discrete choice experiment as part of a cross-sectional survey of all Malawian doctors within seven years of graduation and not yet in specialty training. Over August 2012 to March 2013, 148 doctors took part out of 153 eligible in Malawi. Despite evidence that specialty training is highly sought after, Malawian junior doctors would not accept all types of training. Doctors preferred timely training outside of Malawi in core specialties (internal medicine, general surgery, paediatrics, obstetrics & gynaecology). Specialty preferences are particularly strong, with most junior doctors requiring nearly double their monthly salary to accept training all in Malawi and over six-fold to accept training in ophthalmology (representing a bundle of unpopular but priority specialties). In contrast, the location of work before training did not significantly influence most doctors' choices when guaranteed specialty training. Using a latent class model, we identified four subgroups of junior doctors with distinct preferences. Policy simulations showed that these preferences could be leveraged by policymakers to improve retention in exchange for guaranteed specialty training, however incentivising the uptake of training in priority specialties will only be effective in those with more flexible preferences. These results indicate that indiscriminate expansion of postgraduate training to slow emigration of doctors from sub-Saharan African countries may not be effective unless doctors' preferences are taken into account.

Few medical schools and sustained emigration have led to low numbers of doctors in many sub-Saharan African countries. The opportunity to undertake specialty training has been shown to be particularly important in retaining doctors. Yet limited training capacity means that doctors are often sent to other countries to specialise, increasing the risk that they may not return. Expanding domestic training, however, may be constrained by the reluctance of doctors to accept training in their home country. We modelled different policy options in an example country, Malawi, to examine the cost-effectiveness of expanding specialty training to retain doctors in sub-Saharan Africa. We designed a Markov model of the physician labour market in Malawi, incorporating data from graduate tracing studies in 2006 and 2012, a 2013 discrete choice experiment on 148 Malawian doctors and 2015 cost data. A government perspective was taken with a time horizon of 40 years. Expanded specialty training in Malawi or South Africa with increasing mandatory service before training was compared against baseline conditions. The outcome measures were cost per doctor-year and cost per specialist-year spent working in the Malawian public sector. Expanding specialty training in Malawi is more cost-effective than training outside Malawi. At least two years of mandatory service would be more cost-effective, with five years adding the most value in terms of doctor-years. After 40 years of expanded specialty training in Malawi, the medical workforce would be over fifty percent larger with over six times the number of specialists compared to current trends. However, the government would need to be willing to pay at least 3.5 times more per doctor-year for a 5% increase and a third more per specialist-year for a four-fold increase. Greater returns are possible from doctors with more flexible training preferences. Sustained funding of specialty training may improve retention in sub-Saharan Africa.