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Background: Distal radius fractures are a common orthopedic injury, particularly prevalent among elderly and osteoporotic patients. Although surgical treatment effectively restores fracture alignment and stabilizes the bone, Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) can occur as a postoperative complication, severely impacting patients' rehabilitation and quality of life. Therefore, assessing the risk factors for postoperative CRPS is crucial for early clinical intervention, aiming to improve recovery outcomes and overall patient well-being. Objective: This study aims to dynamically evaluate the risk factors for CRPS following distal radius fracture surgery through a retrospective analysis. The goal is to provide scientific evidence for early clinical identification and intervention. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 191 adult patients who underwent distal radius fracture surgery between January 2021 and December 2022, comprising 89 males and 102 females, with an average age of 59.7 ± 11.6(18–75) years. Baseline and follow-up data, including demographic information, clinical characteristics, and psychological assessments, were collected. Descriptive statistics, univariate, and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors and assess their dynamic changes over time. Results: Age, gender, occupation, fracture type, surgical method, osteoporosis, pain score (VAS), functional disability score (DASH), anxiety score (GAD-7), depression score (PHQ-9), physical therapy, and occupational therapy significantly affected the incidence of CRPS. Age and VAS scores were consistent risk factors. Female gender, internal fixation surgery, and high DASH scores posed higher risks in the early postoperative period but decreased over time. Occupation and fracture type were more significant in the mid to late postoperative period. Psychological factors were most significant in the midterm, while physical and occupational therapy were protective factors early on. Conclusion: The occurrence of CRPS is the result of many factors. Elderly patients, females, and manual laborers had higher risks, with complex fractures and internal fixation surgery patients showing increased risk later on. Osteoporotic patients had higher risks in the mid to late postoperative period. VAS, DASH, GAD-7, and PHQ-9 scores were significantly associated with CRPS. Early physical and occupational therapy can effectively prevent CRPS, but further research is needed to evaluate their long-term effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PRACTICE IMPACT STATEMENTThe current study investigated to what extent personalised information on interrelated risk-relevant behavioural, psychological, and contextual features obtained using experience sampling method (ESM) can be deployed to inform forensic case formulations of adult men with a history of sexual offences. Five adult men in outpatient forensic treatment for committing sexual offences monitored personal risk-relevant features using ESM and discussed the resulting feedback report with their therapist. Data were collected using the Twente engagement with Ehealth technologies Scale, an online questionnaire, a semi-structured interview and log data. Participants reported increased awareness of personal patterns of risk-relevant features and their possible association with the risk of sexual reoffending. The participants did not perceive the ESM procedure as burdensome or intrusive. Obtaining personalised information on risk-relevant features by ESM was feasible and achievable for adult men with a history of sexual offences. Insights derived from ESM measurements could enhance traditional forensic case formulation.Combining experience sampling method (ESM) and traditional forensic case formulation can help adult men with a history of sexual offences to better understand patterns in their risk-relevant characteristics. A more thorough understanding of such patterns may improve treatment plans focused on desistance of sexual reoffending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we investigated the potential moderating role of instability in living arrangements in the association between 14 clinical factors of the Historical Clinical Future Revised (HKT-R) and 5-year violent recidivism. The sample included 316 male forensic psychiatric patients who were unconditionally released from Dutch forensic psychiatric institutions between 2004 and 2008. Results showed that instability in living arrangements did not moderate the association between the clinical factors and violent recidivism, however, it directly and positively predicted (OR = 3.28) violent recidivism. Likewise, hostility (OR = 4.36) and addiction (OR = 1.65) were directly and positively related to violent recidivism, while psychotic symptoms (OR = 0.25) were inversely related. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate risk assessment and insight into which factors are associated with recidivism are essential for forensic correctional practice. Therefore, we investigated whether the Historical, Clinical, and Future–Revised (HKT-R [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst–Revised ]) risk assessment instrument could predict violent recidivism over a 2-year follow-up period in forensic psychiatric patients with intelligence quotient (IQ) < 80. We refer to these patients as intellectually disabled (ID) and patients with IQ ≥ 80 as non-ID. Additionally, the associations of the 14 clinical HKT-R factors with ID versus non-ID group membership were investigated, as well as a possible moderating role of adverse childhood experiences (ACE) in these associations. The final sample encompassed 748 forensic psychiatric patients (15.9% were patients with ID) who were unconditionally released from highly secured Dutch forensic psychiatric institutions between 2004 and 2014. The results showed that the HKT-R total score (AUC = 0.705, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.527, 0.882]) and the clinical domain (AUC = 0.733, 95% CI [0.579, 0.886]) had a large effect size for predictive validity for 2-year violent recidivism, while the future domain (AUC = 0.653, 95% CI [0.524, 0.781]) and the historical domain (AUC = 0.585, 95% CI [0.397, 0.772]) had a medium effect size for predictive validity for 2-year violent recidivism in ID patients. It was also found that lower levels of self-reliance and social skills were associated with ID, indicating that treatment should prioritize these skills. However, ACE was not associated with ID, nor did it moderate the associations of the clinical HKT-R factors with ID. This study contributes to the understanding of both risk assessment and treatment of forensic psychiatric patients with ID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Distal radius fractures are a common orthopedic injury, particularly prevalent among elderly and osteoporotic patients. Although surgical treatment effectively restores fracture alignment and stabilizes the bone, Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) can occur as a postoperative complication, severely impacting patients’ rehabilitation and quality of life. Therefore, assessing the risk factors for postoperative CRPS is crucial for early clinical intervention, aiming to improve recovery outcomes and overall patient well-being. Objective This study aims to dynamically evaluate the risk factors for CRPS following distal radius fracture surgery through a retrospective analysis. The goal is to provide scientific evidence for early clinical identification and intervention. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 191 adult patients who underwent distal radius fracture surgery between January 2021 and December 2022, comprising 89 males and 102 females, with an average age of 59.7 ± 11.6(18–75) years. Baseline and follow-up data, including demographic information, clinical characteristics, and psychological assessments, were collected. Descriptive statistics, univariate, and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors and assess their dynamic changes over time. Results Age, gender, occupation, fracture type, surgical method, osteoporosis, pain score (VAS), functional disability score (DASH), anxiety score (GAD-7), depression score (PHQ-9), physical therapy, and occupational therapy significantly affected the incidence of CRPS. Age and VAS scores were consistent risk factors. Female gender, internal fixation surgery, and high DASH scores posed higher risks in the early postoperative period but decreased over time. Occupation and fracture type were more significant in the mid to late postoperative period. Psychological factors were most significant in the midterm, while physical and occupational therapy were protective factors early on. Conclusion The occurrence of CRPS is the result of many factors. Elderly patients, females, and manual laborers had higher risks, with complex fractures and internal fixation surgery patients showing increased risk later on. Osteoporotic patients had higher risks in the mid to late postoperative period. VAS, DASH, GAD-7, and PHQ-9 scores were significantly associated with CRPS. Early physical and occupational therapy can effectively prevent CRPS, but further research is needed to evaluate their long-term effects.

Objectives: Prior studies indicate risk for recidivism declines with time spent in the community post-incarceration. The current study tested whether declines in risk scores occurred uniformly for all individuals in a community corrections sample or whether distinct groups could be identified on the basis of similar trajectories of change in acute risk and time to recidivism. We additionally tested whether accounting for group heterogeneity improved prospective prediction of recidivism. Methods: This study used longitudinal, multiple-reassessment data gathered from 3,421 individuals supervised on parole in New Zealand (N = 92,104 assessments of theoretically dynamic risk factors conducted by community corrections supervision officers). We applied joint latent class modelling (JLCM) to model group trajectories of change in acute risk following re-entry while accounting for data missing due to recidivism (i.e., missing not at random). We compared accuracy of dynamic predictions based on the selected joint latent class model to an equivalent joint model with no latent class structure. Results: We identified four trajectory groups of acute dynamic risk. Groups were consistently estimated across a split sample. Trajectories differed in direction and degree of change but using the latent class structure did not improve discrimination when predicting recidivism. Conclusions: There may be significant heterogeneity in how individuals' assessed level of acute risk changes following re-entry, but determining risk for recidivism should not be based on probable group membership. JLCM revealed heterogeneity in early re-entry unlikely to be observed using traditional analytic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: This study investigated the reliability and validity of the dynamic risk outcome scales—short version (DROS‐SV). This instrument is developed to monitor treatment progress using dynamic risk factors in clients with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning and behavioural and/or mental health problems. Method: Data were collected from 264 clients who received Flexible Assertive Community Treatment (FACT), a form of intensive outpatient treatment. Results: A principal component analysis showed that there were six components explaining 73.9% of the variance. Furthermore, the DROS‐SV showed good internal consistency of its subscales and total score (α > 0.78). Correlating the DROS‐SV with the Historical and Clinical subscales of the Historical, Clinical and Future—30 indicated convergent and divergent validity. Discussion: The DROS‐SV has good psychometric properties for measuring dynamic risk factors in clients with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning in FACT teams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predominant approach to understand dynamic risk factors of sexual reoffending has been referred to as the Propensities Model (Thornton, 2016). According to this model, dynamic risk factors can be conceptualized as latent constructs whose change alters the risk of sexual reoffending. Despite its strengths and contributions to research, this model does not offer answers to the question of how dynamic risk factors contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending, or of how sustained change in risk might take place. In this paper we introduce the Network-Based Model of Risk of Sexual Reoffending (NBM-RSR), which addresses several limitations and constraints of the Propensities Model and offers empirically testable propositions regarding the nature and development of the risk of sexual reoffending. The NBM-RSR considers risk of sexual reoffending to involve a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. Consistent with this, an increased risk of sexual reoffending is characterized through a network that contains more and stronger interconnected dynamic risk factors with a higher strength. Sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network. Propositions based on the NBM-RSR are introduced and translated into testable hypotheses. These propositions revolve around (a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, (b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and (c) dynamic risk factors' relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated which risk and protective factors, based on the 14 clinical indicators of the Historical-Clinical-Future Revised, significantly predicted violent recidivism in a sample of 315 male forensic psychiatric patients. Additionally, it was investigated whether these associations were moderated by intellectual ability. Regarding risk factors, a stronger influence of risky network members, and higher levels of hostility, impulsivity, and addiction significantly predicted violent recidivism. Likewise, regarding protective factors, poorer social and labor skills, and a lower degree of patient's acceptance of crime responsibility were significant predictors of violent recidivism. Contrary to our expectations, better coping skills and more insight into risky behaviors that can lead to relapse also contributed significantly to an increased likelihood of violent recidivism. Intellectual ability had no significant moderating effect on the associations between the factors and violent recidivism. The results offer an insight into which factors need to be prioritized during treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deliberate firesetting is a prevalent issue. While a number of psychological treatment needs have been identified for adults who set fires, their association with multiple firesetting has received limited attention. This study examined whether demographics, offence histories, firesetting behaviours and psychometric assessments of psychological vulnerabilities hypothesised to be associated with firesetting discriminate between adults who have set only one fire and those who have set multiple fires. Participants (N =128) were recruited from prisons and categorised according to whether they self-reported having set only a single fire (n = 60) or multiple fires (n = 68) as an adult. Our findings provide evidence that identification with fire, antisocial attitudes and anger-related cognition and arousal are associated with multiple firesetting, and therefore represent key treatment targets for interventions. Furthermore, a history of setting fires within prison was the largest unique predictor of multiple firesetting (odds ratio, OR = 6.83), highlighting the urgent need for research on institutional firesetting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Polish Journal of Social Rehabilitation / Resocjalizacja Polska is the property of Pedagogium Foundation and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Relationships between dynamic risk factors for externalising problem behaviour and group climate were investigated in 151 adult in‐patients with mild intellectual disability or borderline intellectual functioning in a Dutch secure residential facility. Method: Regression analysis was used to predict total group climate score and Support, Growth, Repression, and Atmosphere subscales of the 'Group Climate Inventory'. Predictor variables were Coping Skills, Attitude towards current treatment, Hostility, and Criminogenic attitudes subscales of the 'Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales'. Results: Less hostility predicted a better overall group climate, better support and atmosphere, and less repression. A positive attitude towards current treatment predicted better growth. Conclusion: Results indicate relationships of hostility and attitude towards current treatment with group climate. A focus on both dynamic risk factors and group climate may provide a basis for improving treatment for this target group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionCerebral insults lead in many cases not only to cognitive impairment but also to disturbed emotionality. After stroke, one in three survivors develops a depression which impacts quality of life and rehabilitation. Meta-analyses have identified five main predictors of post-stroke depression (PSD): history of mental disorder, stroke severity, physical disability, cognitive impairment, and social support. However, these five established variables have never been conjointly investigated in a sample of stroke survivors. Therefore, their independent predictive values remain unclear. Moreover, predictors are most often used as time-invariant factors (status scores), neglecting the intraindividual dynamics after stroke.MethodsOur study analyses the data of two prospective longitudinal studies, investigating stroke survivors from two rehabilitation hospitals (N1 = 273) and one acute care hospital (N2 = 226). Baseline assessments included the five established predictors and depressive symptoms. After 6 months, depressive symptoms were reassessed in both studies (n1 = 176, n2 = 183), and physical disability and social support were reassessed in study 2. The predictivity of the five predictors and the additional predictivity of intraindividual dynamics for PSD were examined in multiple linear regression analyses.ResultsHistory of mental disorder was a risk factor for depressive symptoms after stroke at all measurement times (B = 3.32 to 3.97; p < 0.01). Physical disability was a risk factor at all measurement times (B = −0.09 to −0.03; p < 0.05) except 6 months after rehabilitation. Social support was a protective factor (B = −2.69 to −1.91; p < 0.01) outside the acute phase (R2 = 0.15–0.39). Intraindividual changes in physical disability and perceived social support were independent predictors of PSD 6 months after the acute phase (B = −0.08/−0.14; p < 0.01), in addition to status scores on established variables (ΔR2 = 0.08, p < 0.001).DiscussionHistory of mental disorder, physical disability, and social support are independent predictors of depressive symptoms in the first year post-stroke, also when considered conjointly. Future studies should control for these variables when investigating new predictors of PSD. In addition, intraindividual changes in known predictors after stroke play a relevant role in the pathogenesis of PSD and should be considered in clinical practice and future research.

Aims: Cold temperatures are known to affect heart failure (HF) hospitalizations, but the dynamic status of multi-morbidity of HF was rarely incorporated. We investigated the relationship between temperature and new-onset HF by risk strata., Methods and Results: This nationwide cohort study analysed daily data on ambient temperature, the dynamic status of risk factors (age, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary artery disease, chronic kidney disease, hypertension, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation), and new-onset HF among the Taiwan population from 2012 to 2019. Poisson regression, Austin's algorithm, and classification and regression tree (CART) were used to determine risk strata and obtain the predicted HF rate. 148 708 patients developed new-onset HF over 152.52 million person-years. Three risk strata for HF were identified: Stratum 1 was predominantly those without any comorbidity (89.9%); Stratum 2 was those aged 60-69 with 2-3 comorbidities or aged 70+ with 1-2 comorbidities (9.0%), and Stratum 3 was those aged 70+ and had four or more comorbidity (1.1%). The HF incidence rates for these three strata were 25.54, 555.27, and 2315.52 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. The R2 of the Poisson regression with the three risk strata and the daily minimum temperature on the ln HF incidence rates was 77.99%. The risk of HF increased as temperatures decreased, and the slopes were 1.032, 1.040, and 1.034 for Strata 1-3, respectively. The rate ratios of HF at the winter median temperature of 17°C vs. the summer median temperature of 29°C were 1.45, 1.58, and 1.49 for Strata 1-3, respectively. Cross-validation reveals a good fit and predicted HF rates by ambient temperature for the three strata were provided., Conclusion: Cold temperatures are associated with an increased risk of new-onset HF. Stratum 2 (aged 60-69 with 2-3 comorbidities or aged 70+ with 1-2 comorbidities) are particularly susceptible to cold-related new-onset HF., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: The remaining authors have nothing to disclose., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

The aim of this paper is to identify some of the urgent issues currently confronting criminal justice policymakers, researchers and practitioners. To this end a diverse group of researchers and clinicians have collaborated to identify pressing concerns in the field and to make some suggestions about how to proceed in the future. The authors represent individuals with varying combinations of criminal justice research, professional training (e.g. social work, criminal justice, criminology, social work, clinical psychology) and clinical orientation, and experience. The paper is comprised of 13 commentaries and a subsequent discussion based on these reflections. The commentaries are divided into the categories of explanation of criminal behaviour, clinical assessment and correctional intervention, and cover issues ranging from the role of clinical expertise in treatment, problems with risk assessment to the adverse effects of social oppression on minority groups. Following the commentaries, we summarize some of their key themes and briefly discuss a number of major issues likely to confront the field in the next 5–10 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lloyd et al. (2020) proposed and tested a novel three-step framework for examining the extent to which reassessment of dynamic risk and protective factors enhances the prediction of imminent criminal recidivism. We conducted a conceptual replication of Lloyd et al.'s study. We used the same dynamic risk assessment measure in the same jurisdiction but, unlike Lloyd et al., our sample comprised solely high-risk men on parole in New Zealand (N = 966), the individuals who are most frequently reassessed in the community and most likely to imminently reoffend. The results of the previous study were largely reproduced: reassessment consistently enhanced prediction, with the most pronounced effects observed for a scale derived from theoretically acute dynamic risk factors. These findings indicate reassessment effects are robust to sample selection based on a narrower range of risk levels and remain robust across years of practice in applied contexts, despite potential organizational drift from initial training and reassessment fatigue. The findings also provide further support for the practice of ongoing risk reassessment in community supervision and suggest that the method proposed by Lloyd et al. is a replicable approach for testing the essential criteria for defining dynamic risk and protective factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Psychology of Criminal Conduct and its associated components (e.g. the Risk Need Responsivity model, the Central Eight risk factors) has been hugely influential in the criminal justice sector. However, like any theory it has relative strengths and weakness, one weakness being that assumptions have been made about the causal nature and conceptual coherence of its foundational constructs, dynamic risk factors. The numerous issues with the conceptualisation of dynamic risk factors have implications for the widespread practice of using them as explanations of offending and to inform intervention planning. Recently some attention has been given to exploring the conceptualisation and definitions, scope and use of dynamic risk factors. Some key advancements in this area are considered and we illustrate how the weaknesses encountered by dynamic risk factors may impact our understanding and application of these concepts, using the example of Antisocial Personality Pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose of Review: We review the issues, controversies, and main findings from the sexual violence risk assessment literature with Indigenous men. An argument is presented for the incorporation of structured and validated risk assessment measures as part of a comprehensive assessment to inform risk management and the prevention of sexual violence. Recent Findings: Extant research demonstrates that Canadian Indigenous men convicted for sexual offenses tend to score higher on sexual violence risk measures and to have higher rates of sexual and violent recidivism. Established static and dynamic tools, however, have moderate predictive accuracy for sexual and violent recidivism and changes in risk from treatment or other change agents are associated with decreases in recidivism. Static-99R and the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version demonstrate acceptable properties of calibration for indigenous men with respect to sexual recidivism, although Indigenous men continue to show higher rates of violent recidivism associated with risk scores. Summary: The extant literature provides support for the discrimination and calibration properties of established static and dynamic sexual violence risk tools with Indigenous men; use of a dynamic tool is critical to inform risk management interventions and evaluate change. Risk measures are one component of a comprehensive and integrated assessment process that incorporates responsivity considerations, conducted in a culturally competent, ethical, and humane manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Forensische Psychiatrie, Psychologie, Kriminologie is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

STABLE-2007 is a measure of risk-relevant propensities for adult males convicted of a sexual offense. This meta-analysis evaluated the ability of STABLE-2007 and its items to discriminate between recidivists and nonrecidivists, and the extent to which STABLE-2007 improves prediction over and above Static-99R. Based on 21 studies (12 unique samples, N = 6,955), we found that STABLE-2007 was significantly and incrementally related to sexual recidivism, violent (nonsexual) recidivism, violent (including sexual) recidivism, and any crime. Scores on STABLE-2007 items and the three STABLE-2000 attitude items also discriminated between individuals who sexually reoffended and those who did not sexually reoffend. These findings support the use of STABLE-2007 in applied risk assessment practice and the interpretation of STABLE-2007 items as indicators of treatment and supervision targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Structured risk/need assessment tools are increasingly used to orientate risk reduction strategies with juvenile offenders. The assumption is that the risk/need items on these tools are sufficiently sensitive to measure changes in the individual, family and/or contextual characteristics of juvenile offenders. However, there is very little research demonstrating the capacity of these tools to measure changes in juvenile offenders. Congruent with the developmental and life-course criminology theories (DLC) the objective of this study is to explore the existence of heterogeneous trajectories of juvenile offenders across the juvenile justice system as measured through five empirical risk/need areas based on the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), one of the most widely applied risk assessment tools for juveniles. Methods This longitudinal study included 5205 male juvenile offenders who transitioned through the Catalan juvenile justice system between 2006 and 2014. During intervention they received at least two, and a maximum of seven, consecutive SAVRY risk/need assessments over an 18-month period. The heterogeneity of latent class trajectories was explored through growth mixture modeling (GMM). The trajectory class membership was linked to covariates through multinomial logistic regression analyses. Results Through GMM three to four heterogeneous trajectories, with high quality of separation, were identified in each of the risk/need areas. The trajectories with low risk/needs (45–77% of the sample) remained low and presented a very limited increase in risk/needs during the 18-month period. The high risk/need trajectories (20–37% of the sample) showed a limited decrease or no change. Between 5 and 13% of the sample had large reductions in their risk/needs levels, and approximately 5% showed a large increase in risk/needs. Conclusions In line with the DLC theories this study shows that trajectories on criminogenic risk/needs can be heterogeneous and indicate distinct rates of change over time. The results of this study also may suggest a limited sensibility to measure change over time of SAVRY’s risk and protective items. Suggestions to improve the sensitivity of measuring change over time, such as shorter time frames or future-oriented time frames for the scoring of the items, are offered.

Background: Structured assessments have been shown to assist professionals to evaluate the risk of aggression in secure services for general offender populations and more recently among adults with intellectual disabilities. There is a need to develop intellectual disability sensitive measures for predicting risk of aggression in community samples, especially tools with a focus on dynamic variables. Methods: The study prospectively followed 28 participants for up to 2 months to test whether the Current Risk of Violence (CuRV) and Short Dynamic Risk Scale (SDRS) were able to predict verbal and physical aggression in a community sample of adults with intellectual disability. Results: CuRV and SDRS ratings significantly predicted verbal and physical aggression over a 2‐month period. Conclusions: The current study supports the use of the CuRV with adults with intellectual disability living in community settings. The CuRV and SDRS are worthy of future development and evaluation in independent investigations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The present study examined the psychometric properties of the Dynamic Risk Outcome Scales (DROS), an instrument developed to measure dynamic risk factors in individuals with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning (MID‐BIF) and externalizing (including offending‐like) behaviour problems. Method: The sample consisted of 606 clients (86% male) from inpatient treatment wards at a facility for individuals with MID‐BIF and externalizing behaviour problems. Results: The DROS showed an acceptable factor structure, good internal consistency, significant test–retest reliability and fair to excellent inter‐rater reliabilities for most subscales and total score. Compared to the Adult Behavior Checklist (ABCL; Achenbach & Rescorla, 2003 Manual for the ASEBA adult forms and profiles. Burlington, VT: University of Vermont, Research Center for Children, Youth, & Families), the DROS showed convergent and divergent validity, concurrent and longitudinal validity. Conclusions: The DROS is a reliable and valid instrument to measure dynamic risk factors in clients with MID‐BIF. Future research on the DROS will focus on the assessment of recidivism and the inclusion of internalizing problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The predominant approach to understand dynamic risk factors of sexual reoffending has been referred to as the Propensities Model (Thornton, 2016). According to this model, dynamic risk factors can be conceptualized as latent constructs whose change alters the risk of sexual reoffending. Despite its strengths and contributions to research, this model does not offer answers to the question of how dynamic risk factors contribute to the risk of sexual reoffending, or of how sustained change in risk might take place. In this paper we introduce the Network-Based Model of Risk of Sexual Reoffending (NBM-RSR), which addresses several limitations and constraints of the Propensities Model and offers empirically testable propositions regarding the nature and development of the risk of sexual reoffending. The NBM-RSR considers risk of sexual reoffending to involve a self-sustaining network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. Consistent with this, an increased risk of sexual reoffending is characterized through a network that contains more and stronger interconnected dynamic risk factors with a higher strength. Sustained change in risk of sexual reoffending occurs when activity in the network exceeds a critical point resulting in a new self-sustaining network. Propositions based on the NBM-RSR are introduced and translated into testable hypotheses. These propositions revolve around (a) risk of sexual reoffending resulting from the construction of a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors, (b) network stability, sudden changes, and critical transitions, and (c) dynamic risk factors' relative influence on risk of sexual reoffending., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

This article aims to outline briefly the important role of culture in the development of the human mind and behaviour, and therefore argues that cultural information is a key part of forensic explanation. We suggest that differing cultural experiences, such as marginalisation, contribute to the differential representation of individuals and groups in criminal justice systems. This occurs through several means, but we focus specifically on individual operation of agency in particular cultural contexts. Building on previous theoretical work, we present a preliminary model, the cultural–ecological predictive agency model. Through an exemplar, we show how this model might assist in understanding better the role of dynamic risk factors in individual behaviour, by locating and incorporating cultural–historical contexts and information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offender rehabilitation is typically thought to have been successful if a higher proportion of a sample of treatment completers avoids being reconvicted for an offence than a comparison sample. Yet, this type of evaluation design tells us little about what brings about these outcomes. In this study, we test whether change in dynamic risk factors during treatment is a recidivism-reducing mechanism in a sample of high-risk offenders. We also examine the extent to which change after treatment-in the period of reentry from prison to the community-mediates this relationship. We found that although individuals made statistically significant change during treatment, this change was not significantly related to recidivism. We did, however, find tentative support for an indirect relationship between treatment change and recidivism, through change that occurred during reentry. These findings signal the importance of the reentry period for understanding how change in treatment is related to long-term outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective and ethical psychological practice relies on good science, and good science takes theory construction very seriously, as seriously as data collection. There is little point in developing valid research designs and sophisticated data analytic techniques if the ideas driving research are mistaken or trivial. In this paper I explore the problem of theoretical illiteracy for correctional psychological research and practice. First, I discuss why theory is important in science and the dangers of ignoring it. Second, I review the role of theory in addressing the myriad of practical problems facing human beings. Third, I outline three strategies to increase researchers and practitioners' appreciation of theory construction and development: adopting a more comprehensive model of scientific method, epistemic iteration, and promoting model pluralism. Fourth, I take an example of a core concept from correctional psychology, that of dynamic risk factors, and demonstrate how the above strategies can be used to rectify problems with this construct. Finally, I discuss the research, practice and normative implications of my approach to addressing theoretical illiteracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we argue that it is time to adopt a broader classification strategy in forensic and correctional contexts based on the goals associated with offending behaviour. First, we briefly discuss the various roles of classification in science and what constitutes a good classification system. Second, we critically examine current systems of classifying crime and individuals who commit it, concentrating on the use of offense types, levels of risk, and dynamic risk factors. Third, we propose that a forensic/correctional classification system based on functional categories or kinds of behaviour is more likely to result in meaningful descriptive categories, better explanations, and ultimately more effective treatment than our current systems do. We then outline the Functional Offending Behaviour Classification Framework drawing together ideas from evolutionary biology, cognitive neuroscience, psychopathology, disability research, and ethology. Finally, we illustrate the advantages of our functional classification framework in comparison to traditional ways of classifying crime and offending behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated the predictive power of the dynamic items in the Finnish Risk and Needs Assessment Form (Riski- ja tarvearvio [RITA]), assessed by caseworkers, for predicting recidivism. These 52 items were compared to static predictors including crime(s) committed, prison history, and age. We used two machine learning methods (elastic net and random forest) for this purpose and compared them with logistic regression. Participants were 746 men who had and 746 who had not reoffended during matched follow-up periods from 0.5 to 5.8 years. Both RITA items and static predictors predicted general and violent recidivism well (area under the curve [AUC] =.74-.78), but to combine them increased discrimination only slightly over static predictors alone (ΔAUC =.01-.03). Calibration was good for all models. We argue that the results show strong potential for the RITA items, but that development is best focused on improving usability for identifying treatment targets and for updating risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic risk (and to a lesser extent protective) factors are the foundation of correctional practice; the assumption that they exist, can be measured and are able to change is at the heart of what forensic practitioners do. However, there has recently been a surge in interest and debate around what these constructs are and how they relate to offending. In progressing this debate, we shift the focus from risky characteristics, behaviours and contexts (e.g. antisocial attitudes, associates, drug abuse), to the practices (i.e. goal-directed actions) to which these descriptions refer. Embedded within practices are values (i.e. priorities, motivators, norms), and underpinning them human capacities. Identification of these capacities and relevant contexts (i.e. norms, opportunities) can inform rehabilitation, which strengthens them to support healthier and less harmful functioning. We offer examples of risk and protective factors for sexual offending, although the ideas are not limited to this type of behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, I describe the motivation-facilitation model of sexual offending, which identifies the traits of paraphilia, high sex drive, and intense mating effort as primary motivations for sexual offenses, as well as trait (e.g., antisocial personality) and state (e.g., intoxication) factors that can facilitate acting on these motivations when opportunities exist. Originally developed to explain contact sexual offending against children, the motivation-facilitation model was subsequently extended as an explanation for child pornography offending and for online solicitations of young adolescents. Here, I argue it has the potential to be expanded to explain other forms of sexual offending, including sexual assaults of adults and noncontact offenses involving exhibitionism or voyeurism. In this review, I critically examine the evidence for and against the model, discuss its limitations, and identify critical gaps for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The explanation of offending and reoffending currently relies upon the Risk-Need-Responsivity model's concept of "criminogenic need" (Andrews & Bonta, 2010; Bonta & Andrews, 2017) or dynamic risk factors (DRF). This is problematic because the DRF construct is predictive rather than explanatory, and suffers from a number of conceptual problems. Relatedly, the identification and management of DRF in individuals who have committed crimes is an overriding concern for the criminal justice system. It drives the formation of correctional policy and the funding of treatment programs in prisons, forensic hospitals, and probation services. Significant theoretical work is required in order to transform DRF into explanatory tools which are useful for research and practice. In this paper we outline problems with DRF which obstruct this process and then sketch out a possible way forward; the Risk-Causality Method, with its three phases of deconstruction, analysis, and reintegration. Highlights • In this paper we outline a novel method for researchers to utilize dynamic risk factors in the explanation of offending. • Our method integrates suggestions from recent literature throughout its phases: deconstruction, analysis, and reintegration. • The analysis phase includes the psychological mechanisms underpinning factors as well as the contexts in which they manifest. • This has the potential to encourage and guide research, and eventually influence the way practitioners formulate cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]