85 results on '"Dwyer-Lindgren, L."'
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2. Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
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Naghavi, M, Ong, K, Aali, A, Ababneh, H, Abate, Y, Abbafati, C, Abbasgholizadeh, R, Abbasian, M, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd ElHafeez, S, Abdelmasseh, M, Abd-Elsalam, S, Abdelwahab, A, Abdollahi, M, Abdollahifar, M, Abdoun, M, Abdulah, D, Abdullahi, A, Abebe, M, Abebe, S, Abedi, A, Abegaz, K, Abhilash, E, Abidi, H, Abiodun, O, Aboagye, R, Abolhassani, H, Abolmaali, M, Abouzid, M, Aboye, G, Abreu, L, Abrha, W, Abtahi, D, Abu Rumeileh, S, Abualruz, H, Abubakar, B, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Aburuz, S, Abu-Zaid, A, Accrombessi, M, Adal, T, Adamu, A, Addo, I, Addolorato, G, Adebiyi, A, Adekanmbi, V, Adepoju, A, Adetunji, C, Adetunji, J, Adeyeoluwa, T, Adeyinka, D, Adeyomoye, O, Admass, B, Adnani, Q, Adra, S, Afolabi, A, Afzal, M, Afzal, S, Agampodi, S, Agasthi, P, Aggarwal, M, Aghamiri, S, Agide, F, Agodi, A, Agrawal, A, Agyemang-Duah, W, Ahinkorah, B, Ahmad, A, Ahmad, D, Ahmad, F, Ahmad, M, Ahmad, S, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, K, Ahmadzade, A, Ahmed, A, Ahmed, H, Ahmed, L, Ahmed, M, Ahmed, S, Ajami, M, Aji, B, Akara, E, Akbarialiabad, H, Akinosoglou, K, Akinyemiju, T, Akkaif, M, Akyirem, S, Al Hamad, H, Al Hasan, S, Alahdab, F, Alalalmeh, S, Alalwan, T, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, M, Alam, N, Al-amer, R, Alanezi, F, Alanzi, T, Al-Azzam, S, Albakri, A, Albashtawy, M, Albataineh, M, Alcalde-Rabanal, J, Aldawsari, K, Aldhaleei, W, Aldridge, R, Alema, H, Alemayohu, M, Alemi, S, Alemu, Y, Al-Gheethi, A, Alhabib, K, Alhalaiqa, F, Al-Hanawi, M, Ali, A, Ali, L, Ali, M, Ali, R, Ali, S, Alicandro, G, Alif, S, Alikhani, R, Alimohamadi, Y, Aliyi, A, Aljasir, M, Aljunid, S, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Al-Marwani, S, Al-Maweri, S, Almazan, J, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Almidani, L, Almidani, O, Alomari, M, Al-Omari, B, Alonso, J, Alqahtani, J, Alqalyoobi, S, Alqutaibi, A, Al-Sabah, S, Altaany, Z, Altaf, A, Al-Tawfiq, J, Altirkawi, K, Aluh, D, Alvis-Guzman, N, Alwafi, H, Al-Worafi, Y, Aly, H, Aly, S, Alzoubi, K, Amani, R, Amare, A, Amegbor, P, Ameyaw, E, Amin, T, Amindarolzarbi, A, Amiri, S, Amirzade-Iranaq, M, Amu, H, Amugsi, D, Amusa, G, Ancuceanu, R, Anderlini, D, Anderson, D, Andrade, P, Andrei, C, Andrei, T, Angus, C, Anil, A, Anil, S, Anoushiravani, A, Ansari, H, Ansariadi, A, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Antony, C, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Anvari, S, Anwar, S, Anwer, R, Anyasodor, A, Aqeel, M, Arab, J, Arabloo, J, Arafat, M, Aravkin, A, Areda, D, Aremu, A, Aremu, O, Ariffin, H, Arkew, M, Armocida, B, Arndt, M, Ärnlöv, J, Arooj, M, Artamonov, A, Arulappan, J, Aruleba, R, Arumugam, A, Asaad, M, Asadi-Lari, M, Asgedom, A, Asghariahmadabad, M, Asghari-Jafarabadi, M, Ashraf, M, Aslani, A, Astell-Burt, T, Athar, M, Athari, S, Atinafu, B, Atlaw, H, Atorkey, P, Atout, M, Atreya, A, Aujayeb, A, Ausloos, M, Avan, A, Awedew, A, Aweke, A, Ayala Quintanilla, B, Ayatollahi, H, Ayuso-Mateos, J, Ayyoubzadeh, S, Azadnajafabad, S, Azevedo, R, Azzam, A, B, D, Babu, A, Badar, M, Badiye, A, Baghdadi, S, Bagheri, N, Bagherieh, S, Bah, S, Bahadorikhalili, S, Bahmanziari, N, Bai, R, Baig, A, Baker, J, Bako, A, Bakshi, R, Balakrishnan, S, Balasubramanian, M, Baltatu, O, Bam, K, Banach, M, Bandyopadhyay, S, Banik, P, Bansal, H, Bansal, K, Barbic, F, Barchitta, M, Bardhan, M, Bardideh, E, Barker-Collo, S, Bärnighausen, T, Barone-Adesi, F, Barqawi, H, Barrero, L, Barrow, A, Barteit, S, Barua, L, Basharat, Z, Bashiri, A, Basiru, A, Baskaran, P, Basnyat, B, Bassat, Q, Basso, J, Basting, A, Basu, S, Batra, K, Baune, B, Bayati, M, Bayileyegn, N, Beaney, T, Bedi, N, Beghi, M, Behboudi, E, Behera, P, Behnoush, A, Behzadifar, M, Beiranvand, M, Bejarano Ramirez, D, Béjot, Y, Belay, S, Belete, C, Bell, M, Bello, M, Bello, O, Belo, L, Beloukas, A, Bender, R, Bensenor, I, Beran, A, Berezvai, Z, Berhie, A, Berice, B, Bernstein, R, Bertolacci, G, Bettencourt, P, Beyene, K, Bhagat, D, Bhagavathula, A, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhandari, D, Bhangdia, K, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhargava, A, Bhaskar, S, Bhat, V, Bhatti, G, Bhatti, J, Bhatti, M, Bhatti, R, Bhutta, Z, Bikbov, B, Bishai, J, Bisignano, C, Bisulli, F, Biswas, A, Biswas, B, Bitaraf, S, Bitew, B, Bitra, V, Bjørge, T, Boachie, M, Boampong, M, Bobirca, A, Bodolica, V, Bodunrin, A, Bogale, E, Bogale, K, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, O, Boloor, A, Bonakdar Hashemi, M, Bonny, A, Bora, K, Bora Basara, B, Borhany, H, Borzutzky, A, Bouaoud, S, Boustany, A, Boxe, C, Boyko, E, Brady, O, Braithwaite, D, Brant, L, Brauer, M, Brazinova, A, Brazo-Sayavera, J, Breitborde, N, Breitner, S, Brenner, H, Briko, A, Briko, N, Britton, G, Brown, J, Brugha, T, Bulamu, N, Bulto, L, Buonsenso, D, Burns, R, Busse, R, Bustanji, Y, Butt, N, Butt, Z, Caetano dos Santos, F, Calina, D, Cámera, L, Campos, L, Campos-Nonato, I, Cao, C, Cao, Y, Capodici, A, Cárdenas, R, Carr, S, Carreras, G, Carrero, J, Carugno, A, Carvalheiro, C, Carvalho, F, Carvalho, M, Castaldelli-Maia, J, Castañeda-Orjuela, C, Castelpietra, G, Catalá-López, F, Catapano, A, Cattaruzza, M, Cederroth, C, Cegolon, L, Cembranel, F, Cenderadewi, M, Cercy, K, Cerin, E, Cevik, M, Chadwick, J, Chahine, Y, Chakraborty, C, Chakraborty, P, Chan, J, Chan, R, Chandika, R, Chandrasekar, E, Chang, C, Chang, J, Chanie, G, Charalampous, P, Chattu, V, Chaturvedi, P, Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou, V, Chaurasia, A, Chen, A, Chen, C, Chen, H, Chen, M, Chen, S, Cheng, C, Cheng, E, Cherbuin, N, Cheru, W, Chien, J, Chimed-Ochir, O, Chimoriya, R, Ching, P, Chirinos-Caceres, J, Chitheer, A, Cho, W, Chong, B, Chopra, H, Choudhari, S, Chowdhury, R, Christopher, D, Chukwu, I, Chung, E, Chung, S, Chutiyami, M, Cindi, Z, Cioffi, I, Claassens, M, Claro, R, Coberly, K, Cogen, R, Columbus, A, Comfort, H, Conde, J, Cortese, S, Cortesi, P, Costa, V, Costanzo, S, Cousin, E, Couto, R, Cowden, R, Cramer, K, Criqui, M, Cruz-Martins, N, Cuadra-Hernández, S, Culbreth, G, Cullen, P, Cunningham, M, Curado, M, Dadana, S, Dadras, O, Dai, S, Dai, X, Dai, Z, Dalli, L, Damiani, G, Darega Gela, J, Das, J, Das, S, Dascalu, A, Dash, N, Dashti, M, Dastiridou, A, Davey, G, Dávila-Cervantes, C, Davis Weaver, N, Davletov, K, De Leo, D, de Luca, K, Debele, A, Debopadhaya, S, Degenhardt, L, Dehghan, A, Deitesfeld, L, Del Bo', C, Delgado-Enciso, I, Demessa, B, Demetriades, A, Deng, K, Deng, X, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deravi, N, Dereje, N, Dervenis, N, Dervišević, E, Des Jarlais, D, Desai, H, Desai, R, Devanbu, V, Dewan, S, Dhali, A, Dhama, K, Dhimal, M, Dhingra, S, Dhulipala, V, Dias da Silva, D, Diaz, D, Diaz, M, Dima, A, Ding, D, Ding, H, Dinis-Oliveira, R, Dirac, M, Djalalinia, S, Do, T, do Prado, C, Doaei, S, Dodangeh, M, Dohare, S, Dokova, K, Dolecek, C, Dominguez, R, Dong, W, Dongarwar, D, D'Oria, M, Dorostkar, F, Dorsey, E, dos Santos, W, Doshi, R, Doshmangir, L, Dowou, R, Driscoll, T, Dsouza, H, Dsouza, V, Du, M, Dube, J, Duncan, B, Duraes, A, Duraisamy, S, Durojaiye, O, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Dzianach, P, Dziedzic, A, E'Mar, A, Eboreime, E, Ebrahimi, A, Echieh, C, Edinur, H, Edvardsson, D, Edvardsson, K, Efendi, D, Efendi, F, Effendi, D, Eikemo, T, Eini, E, Ekholuenetale, M, Ekundayo, T, El Sayed, I, Elbarazi, I, Elema, T, Elemam, N, Elgar, F, Elgendy, I, Elgohary, G, Elhabashy, H, Elhadi, M, El-Huneidi, W, Elilo, L, Elmeligy, O, Elmonem, M, Elshaer, M, Elsohaby, I, Emeto, T, Engelbert Bain, L, Erkhembayar, R, Esezobor, C, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Espinosa-Montero, J, Esubalew, H, Etaee, F, Fabin, N, Fadaka, A, Fagbamigbe, A, Fahim, A, Fahimi, S, Fakhri-Demeshghieh, A, Falzone, L, Fareed, M, Farinha, C, Faris, M, Faris, P, Faro, A, Fasanmi, A, Fatehizadeh, A, Fattahi, H, Fauk, N, Fazeli, P, Feigin, V, Feizkhah, A, Fekadu, G, Feng, X, Fereshtehnejad, S, Feroze, A, Ferrante, D, Ferrari, A, Ferreira, N, Fetensa, G, Feyisa, B, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Flavel, J, Flood, D, Florin, B, Foigt, N, Folayan, M, Fomenkov, A, Foroutan, B, Foroutan, M, Forthun, I, Fortuna, D, Foschi, M, Fowobaje, K, Francis, K, Franklin, R, Freitas, A, Friedman, J, Friedman, S, Fukumoto, T, Fuller, J, Fux, B, Gaal, P, Gadanya, M, Gaidhane, A, Gaihre, S, Gakidou, E, Galali, Y, Galles, N, Gallus, S, Ganbat, M, Gandhi, A, Ganesan, B, Ganiyani, M, Garcia-Gordillo, M, Gardner, W, Garg, J, Garg, N, Gautam, R, Gbadamosi, S, Gebi, T, Gebregergis, M, Gebrehiwot, M, Gebremeskel, T, Georgescu, S, Getachew, T, Gething, P, Getie, M, Ghadiri, K, Ghahramani, S, Ghailan, K, Ghasemi, M, Ghasempour Dabaghi, G, Ghasemzadeh, A, Ghashghaee, A, Ghassemi, F, Ghazy, R, Ghimire, A, Ghoba, S, Gholamalizadeh, M, Gholamian, A, Gholamrezanezhad, A, Gholizadeh, N, Ghorbani, M, Ghorbani Vajargah, P, Ghoshal, A, Gill, P, Gill, T, Gillum, R, Ginindza, T, Girmay, A, Glasbey, J, Gnedovskaya, E, Göbölös, L, Godinho, M, Goel, A, Golchin, A, Goldust, M, Golechha, M, Goleij, P, Gomes, N, Gona, P, Gopalani, S, Gorini, G, Goudarzi, H, Goulart, A, Goulart, B, Goyal, A, Grada, A, Graham, S, Grivna, M, Grosso, G, Guan, S, Guarducci, G, Gubari, M, Gudeta, M, Guha, A, Guicciardi, S, Guimarães, R, Gulati, S, Gunawardane, D, Gunturu, S, Guo, C, Gupta, A, Gupta, B, Gupta, M, Gupta, R, Gupta, S, Gupta, V, Gurmessa, L, Gutiérrez, R, Habibzadeh, F, Habibzadeh, P, Haddadi, R, Hadei, M, Hadi, N, Haep, N, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hailu, A, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Halboub, E, Hall, B, Haller, S, Halwani, R, Hamadeh, R, Hameed, S, Hamidi, S, Hamilton, E, Han, C, Han, Q, Hanif, A, Hanifi, N, Hankey, G, Hanna, F, Hannan, M, Haque, M, Harapan, H, Hargono, A, Haro, J, Hasaballah, A, Hasan, I, Hasan, M, Hasani, H, Hasanian, M, Hashi, A, Hasnain, M, Hassan, I, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Haubold, J, Havmoeller, R, Hay, S, He, J, Hebert, J, Hegazi, O, Heidari, G, Heidari, M, Heidari-Foroozan, M, Helfer, B, Hendrie, D, Herrera-Serna, B, Herteliu, C, Hesami, H, Hezam, K, Hill, C, Hiraike, Y, Holla, R, Horita, N, Hossain, M, Hossain, S, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, H, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hosseinzadeh Adli, A, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Hsairi, M, Hsieh, V, Hsu, R, Hu, C, Huang, J, Hultström, M, Humayun, A, Hundie, T, Hussain, J, Hussain, M, Hussein, N, Hussien, F, Huynh, H, Hwang, B, Ibitoye, S, Ibrahim, K, Iftikhar, P, Ijo, D, Ikiroma, A, Ikuta, K, Ikwegbue, P, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Imam, M, Immurana, M, Inamdar, S, Indriasih, E, Iqhrammullah, M, Iradukunda, A, Iregbu, K, Islam, M, Islam, S, Islami, F, Ismail, F, Ismail, N, Iso, H, Isola, G, Iwagami, M, Iwu, C, Iyamu, I, Iyer, M, J, L, Jaafari, J, Jacob, L, Jacobsen, K, Jadidi-Niaragh, F, Jafarinia, M, Jafarzadeh, A, Jaggi, K, Jahankhani, K, Jahanmehr, N, Jahrami, H, Jain, N, Jairoun, A, Jaiswal, A, Jamshidi, E, Janko, M, Jatau, A, Javadov, S, Javaheri, T, Jayapal, S, Jayaram, S, Jebai, R, Jee, S, Jeganathan, J, Jha, A, Jha, R, Jiang, H, Jin, Y, Johnson, O, Jokar, M, Jonas, J, Joo, T, Joseph, A, Joseph, N, Joshua, C, Joshy, G, Jozwiak, J, Jürisson, M, K, V, Kaambwa, B, Kabir, A, Kabir, Z, Kadashetti, V, Kadir, D, Kalani, R, Kalankesh, L, Kaliyadan, F, Kalra, S, Kamal, V, Kamarajah, S, Kamath, R, Kamiab, Z, Kamyari, N, Kanagasabai, T, Kanchan, T, Kandel, H, Kanmanthareddy, A, Kanmiki, E, Kanmodi, K, Kannan S, S, Kansal, S, Kantar, R, Kapoor, N, Karajizadeh, M, Karanth, S, Karasneh, R, Karaye, I, Karch, A, Karim, A, Karimi, S, Karimi Behnagh, A, Kashoo, F, Kasnazani, Q, Kasraei, H, Kassebaum, N, Kassel, M, Kauppila, J, Kaur, N, Kawakami, N, Kayode, G, Kazemi, F, Kazemian, S, Kazmi, T, Kebebew, G, Kebede, A, Kebede, F, Keflie, T, Keiyoro, P, Keller, C, Kelly, J, Kempen, J, Kerr, J, Kesse-Guyot, E, Khajuria, H, Khalaji, A, Khalid, N, Khalil, A, Khalilian, A, Khamesipour, F, Khan, A, Khan, G, Khan, I, Khan, M, Khan, Z, Khan suheb, M, Khanmohammadi, S, Khatab, K, Khatami, F, Khatatbeh, H, Khatatbeh, M, Khavandegar, A, Khayat Kashani, H, Khidri, F, Khodadoust, E, Khorgamphar, M, Khormali, M, Khorrami, Z, Khosravi, A, Khosravi, M, Kifle, Z, Kim, G, Kim, J, Kim, K, Kim, M, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kinzel, K, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Klu, D, Knudsen, A, Kocarnik, J, Kochhar, S, Kocsis, T, Koh, D, Kolahi, A, Kolves, K, Kompani, F, Koren, G, Kosen, S, Kostev, K, Koul, P, Koulmane Laxminarayana, S, Krishan, K, Krishna, H, Krishna, V, Krishnamoorthy, V, Krishnamoorthy, Y, Krohn, K, Kuate Defo, B, Kucuk Bicer, B, Kuddus, M, Kuitunen, I, Kulimbet, M, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, A, Kumar, H, Kumar, M, Kumar, R, Kumari, M, Kumie, F, Kundu, S, Kurmi, O, Kusnali, A, Kusuma, D, Kwarteng, A, Kyriopoulos, I, Kyu, H, La Vecchia, C, Lacey, B, Ladan, M, Laflamme, L, Lagat, A, Lager, A, Lahmar, A, Lai, D, Lal, D, Lalloo, R, Lallukka, T, Lam, H, Lám, J, Landrum, K, Lanfranchi, F, Lang, J, Langguth, B, Lansingh, V, Laplante-Lévesque, A, Larijani, B, Larsson, A, Lasrado, S, Lassi, Z, Latief, K, Latifinaibin, K, Lauriola, P, Le, N, Le, T, Ledda, C, Ledesma, J, Lee, M, Lee, P, Lee, S, Lee, W, Lee, Y, Legrand, K, Leigh, J, Leong, E, Lerango, T, Li, M, Li, W, Li, X, Li, Y, Li, Z, Ligade, V, Likaka, A, Lim, L, Lim, S, Lindstrom, M, Linehan, C, Liu, C, Liu, G, Liu, J, Liu, R, Liu, S, Liu, X, Llanaj, E, Loftus, M, López-Bueno, R, Lopukhov, P, Loreche, A, Lorkowski, S, Lotufo, P, Lozano, R, Lubinda, J, Lucchetti, G, Lugo, A, Lunevicius, R, Ma, Z, Maass, K, Machairas, N, Machoy, M, Madadizadeh, F, Madsen, C, Madureira-Carvalho, Á, Maghazachi, A, Maharaj, S, Mahjoub, S, Mahmoud, M, Mahmoudi, A, Mahmoudi, E, Mahmoudi, R, Majeed, A, Makhdoom, I, Malakan Rad, E, Maled, V, Malekzadeh, R, Malhotra, A, Malhotra, K, Malik, A, Malik, I, Malta, D, Mamun, A, Mansouri, P, Mansournia, M, Mantovani, L, Maqsood, S, Marasini, B, Marateb, H, Maravilla, J, Marconi, A, Mardi, P, Marino, M, Marjani, A, Martinez, G, Martinez-Guerra, B, Martinez-Piedra, R, Martini, D, Martini, S, Martins-Melo, F, Martorell, M, Marx, W, Maryam, S, Marzo, R, Masaka, A, Masrie, A, Mathieson, S, Mathioudakis, A, Mathur, M, Mattumpuram, J, Matzopoulos, R, Maude, R, Maugeri, A, Maulik, P, Mayeli, M, Mazaheri, M, Mazidi, M, Mcgrath, J, Mckee, M, Mckowen, A, Mclaughlin, S, Mcphail, S, Mechili, E, Medina, J, Mediratta, R, Meena, J, Mehra, R, Mehrabani-Zeinabad, K, Mehrabi Nasab, E, Mekene Meto, T, Meles, G, Mendez-Lopez, M, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengist, B, Mentis, A, Meo, 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Zhi-Jiang, Zhao, Hanqing, Zhong, Chenwen, Zhou, Juexiao, Zhu, Bin, Zhu, Lei, Ziafati, Makan, Zielińska, Magdalena, Zitoun, Osama A, Zoladl, Mohammad, Zou, Zhiyong, Zuhlke, Liesl J, Zumla, Alimuddin, Zweck, Elric, Zyoud, Samer H, Wool, Eve E, and Murray, Christopher J L
- Published
- 2024
3. Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
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Saravi, Yaser Sarikhani, Tanmay Sarkar, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C Sarode, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Anudeep Sathyanarayan, Abu Sayeed, Md Abu Sayeed, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Winfried Schlee, Art Schuermans, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Siddharthan Selvaraj, Pallav Sengupta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Dragos Serban, Edson Serván-Mori, Yashendra Sethi, SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi, Seyed Arsalan Seyedi, Allen Seylani, Mahan Shafie, Jaffer Shah, Pritik A Shah, Ataollah Shahbandi, Samiah Shahid, Moyad Jamal Shahwan, Ahmed Shaikh, Masood Ali Shaikh, Muhammad Aaqib Shamim, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Mohammad Anas Shamsi, Mohd Shanawaz, Abhishek Shankar, Mohammed Shannawaz, Medha Sharath, Sadaf Sharfaei, Amin Sharifan, Javad Sharifi-Rad, Manoj Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Ujjawal Sharma, Vishal Sharma, Rajesh P Shastry, Amin Shavandi, David H Shaw, Amir Mehdi Shayan, Maryam Shayan, Amr Mohamed Elsayed Shehabeldine, Aziz Sheikh, Rahim Ali Sheikhi, Manjunath Mala Shenoy, Pavanchand H Shetty, Peilin Shi, Desalegn Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Aminu Shittu, Velizar Shivarov, Farhad Shokraneh, Sina Shool, Seyed Afshin Shorofi, Kanwar Hamza Shuja, Kerem Shuval, Emmanuel Edwar Siddig, João Pedro Silva, Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva, Soraia Silva, Biagio Simonetti, Anjali Singal, Abhinav Singh, Balbir Bagicha Singh, Jasvinder A Singh, Md Shahjahan Siraj, Georgia Smith, Bogdan Socea, Anton Sokhan, Ranjan Solanki, Shipra Solanki, Hamidreza Soleimani, Sameh S M Soliman, Yonatan Solomon, Yimeng Song, Reed J D Sorensen, Michael Spartalis, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vijay Kumar Srivastava, Muhammad Haroon Stanikzai, Vladimir I Starodubov, Antonina V Starodubova, Simona Cătălina Stefan, Paschalis Steiropoulos, Mark A Stokes, Vetriselvan Subramaniyan, Muhammad Suleman, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Abida Sultana, Jing Sun, Chandan Kumar Swain, Bryan L Sykes, Lukasz Szarpak, Mindy D Szeto, Miklós Szócska, Payam Tabaee Damavandi, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Ozra Tabatabaei Malazy, Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh, Shima Tabatabai, Karen M Tabb, Mohammad Tabish, Moslem Taheri Soodejani, Jabeen Taiba, Ardeshir Tajbakhsh, Iman M Talaat, Ashis Talukder, Mircea Tampa, Jacques Lukenze Tamuzi, Ker-Kan Tan, Haosu Tang, Derbie Alemu DA Tareke, Mengistie Kassahun Tariku, Vivian Y Tat, Seyed Mohammad Tavangar, Mojtaba Teimoori, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Reem Mohamad Hani Temsah, Masayuki Teramoto, Dufera Rikitu Terefa, Riki Tesler, Enoch Teye-Kwadjo, Ramna Thakur, Pugazhenthan Thangaraju, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Rekha Thapar, Samar Tharwat, Rasiah Thayakaran, Nihal Thomas, Ales Tichopad, Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu, Tenaw Yimer Tiruye, Mariya Vladimirovna Titova, Marcello Tonelli, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Jasmine T Tran, Nghia Minh Tran, Indang Trihandini, Samuel Joseph Tromans, Thien Tan Tri Tai Truyen, Aristidis Tsatsakis, Evangelia Eirini Tsermpini, Munkhtuya Tumurkhuu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Sayed Mohammad Nazim Uddin, Aniefiok John Udoakang, Arit Udoh, Atta Ullah, Saeed Ullah, Sana Ullah, Srikanth Umakanthan, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Brigid Unim, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Era Upadhyay, Jibrin Sammani Usman, Marco Vacante, Seyed Mohammad Vahabi, Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan, Rohollah Valizadeh, Jef Van den Eynde, Elena Varavikova, Orsolya Varga, Priya Vart, Shoban Babu Varthya, Tommi Juhani Vasankari, Balachandar Vellingiri, Deneshkumar Venugopal, Nicholas Alexander Verghese, Madhur Verma, Massimiliano Veroux, Georgios-Ioannis Verras, Dominique Vervoort, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Manish Vinayak, Francesco S Violante, Mukesh Vishwakarma, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Bay Vo, Simona Ruxandra Volovat, Theo Vos, Isidora S Vujcic, Hatem A Wafa, Yasir Waheed, Elias Bekele Wakwoya, Cong Wang, Denny Wang, Fang Wang, Shu Wang, Yanzhong Wang, Yuan-Pang Wang, Paul Ward, Emebet Gashaw Wassie, Stefanie Watson, Marcia R Weaver, Kosala Gayan Weerakoon, Daniel J Weiss, Katherine M Wells, Yi Feng Wen, Ronny Westerman, Taweewat Wiangkham, Dakshitha Praneeth Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Peter Willeit, Yohannes Addisu Wondimagegene, Felicia Wu, Juan Xia, Hong Xiao, Gelin Xu, Suowen Xu, Xiaoyue Xu, Ali Yadollahpour, Shirin Yaghoobpoor, Tina Yaghoobpour, Sajad Yaghoubi, Zwanden Sule Yahaya, Danting Yang, Lin Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Habib Yaribeygi, Pengpeng Ye, Renjulal Yesodharan, Subah Abderehim Yesuf, Saber Yezli, Amanuel Yigezu, Paul Yip, Dong Keon Yon, Naohiro Yonemoto, Yuyi You, Mustafa Z Younis, Zabihollah Yousefi, Chuanhua Yu, Yong Yu, Chun-Wei Yuan, Nima Zafari, Fathiah Zakham, Nazar Zaki, Giulia Zamagni, Milad Zandi, Ghazal G Z Zandieh, Moein Zangiabadian, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Haijun Zhang, Meixin Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Chenwen Zhong, Juexiao Zhou, Bin Zhu, Lei Zhu, Magdalena Zielińska, Zhiyong Zou, Samer H Zyoud, Christopher J L Murray, Amanda E Smith, and Stein Emil Vollset
- Abstract
Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in
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- 2024
4. The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children
- Author
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Reiner, R.C., Welgan, C.A., Troeger, C.E., Baumann, M.M., Weiss, D.J., Deshpande, A., Blacker, B.F., Miller-Petrie, M.K., Earl, L., Bhatt, S., Abolhassani, H., Abosetugn, A.E., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O.O., Aghaali, M., Aji, B., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alhassan, R.K., Ali, S., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, A.T., Amini, S., Amugsi, D.A., Ancuceanu, R., Andrei, C.L., Ansari, F., Anvari, D., Appiah, S.C.Y., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Atout, M.M.W., Ausloos, M., Ausloos, F., Ayanore, M.A., Aynalem, Y.A., Azene, Z.N., Badawi, A., Baig, A.A., Banach, M., Bedi, N., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhandari, D., Bhardwaj, N., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhutta, Z.A., Bijani, A., Birhanu, T.T.M., Bitew, Z.W., Boloor, A., Brady, O.J., Butt, Z.A., Car, J., Carvalho, F., Casey, D.C., Chattu, V.K., Chowdhury, M.A.K., Chu, D.-., Coelho, C.H., Cook, A.J., Damiani, G., Daoud, F., Gela, J.D., Darwish, A.H., Daryani, A., Das, J.K., Davis Weaver, N., Deribe, K., Desalew, A., Dharmaratne, S.D., Dianatinasab, M., Diaz, D., Djalalinia, S., Dorostkar, F., Dubljanin, E., Duko, B., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Effiong, A., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., Enany, S., Fattahi, N., Feigin, V.L., Fernandes, E., Ferrara, P., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Foroutan, M., Frostad, J.J., Fukumoto, T., Gaidhane, A.M., Gebrekrstos, H.G.G.K., Gebremeskel, L., Gebreslassie, A.A., Gething, P.W., Gezae, K.E., Ghadiri, K., Ghashghaee, A., Golechha, M., Gubari, M.I.M., Hadgu, F.B., Hamidi, S., Handiso, D.W., Hashi, A., Hassan, S., Hayat, K., Herteliu, C., H. C., H., Holla, R., Hosseinzadeh, M., Househ, M., Hussain, R., Hwang, B.-., Ibitoye, S.E., Ilesanmi, O.S., Ilic, I.M., Ilic, M.D., Irvani, S.S.N., Jaafari, J., Javaheri, T., Jha, R.P., Johnson, K.B., Jonas, J.B., Jozwiak, J.J., Kabir, A., Kalhor, R., Kanchan, T., Karch, A., Kayode, G.A., Keiyoro, P.N., Khader, Y.S., Khalil, I.A., Khan, M.N., Khan, M., Khan, G., Khatab, K., Khater, M.M., Khatib, M.N., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y.J., Kimokoti, R.W., Kisa, S., Kisa, A., Kissoon, N., Kochhar, S., Koolivand, A., Kopec, J.A., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Kumar, P., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., Lal, D.K., Lami, F.H., Landires, I., Lansingh, V.C., Lasrado, S., La Vecchia, C., Lazzar-Atwood, A., Lee, P.H., Legrand, K.E., Lewycka, S., Li, B., Lim, S.S., Lindstedt, P.A., Liu, X., Longbottom, J., Lopez, A.D., Magdy Abd El Razek, H., Mahasha, P.W., Maleki, A., Mamun, A.A., Mansournia, M.A., Marczak, L.B., Martins-Melo, F.R., Mayala, B.K., Meharie, B.G., Melese, A., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R.G., Mengesha, E.W., Mensah, G.A., Meretoja, T.J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T.R., Mirrakhimov, E.M., Moazen, B., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N., Mohammadi, S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Moradi, M., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Mosser, J.F., Murray, C.J.L., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A.J., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Negoi, I., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nguyen, Q.A.P., Nguyen, H.L.T., Nnaji, C.A., Noubiap, J.J., Nunez-Samudio, V., Olagunju, A.T., Olusanya, J.O., Olusanya, B.O., Omer, M.O., Onwujekwe, O.E., Otstavnov, N., Otstavnov, S.S., Owolabi, M.O., P A, M., Padubidri, J.R., Pana, A., Peprah, E.K., Pham, H.Q., Pigott, D.M., Pirestani, M., Postma, M.J., Pottoo, F.H., Pourjafar, H., Quazi Syed, Z., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M.H.U., Rao, S.J., Rao, P.C., Rathi, P., Rawaf, S., Rawaf, D.L., Rawal, L., Rawassizadeh, R., Regassa, L.D., Renzaho, A.M.N., Rezaei, N., Rezai, M.S., Ribeiro, A.I., Rickard, J., Rios-Gonzalez, C.M., Rumisha, S.F., Sabour, S., Sajadi, S.M., Salomon, J.A., Samadi Kafil, H., Samy, A.M., Sanabria, J., Sartorius, B., Saxena, D., Schaeffer, L.E., Senthilkumaran, S., Sha, F., Shaheen, A.A., Shaikh, M.A., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shibuya, K., Shigematsu, M., Il Shin, J., Simonetti, B., Singh, J.A., Smith, D.L., Soheili, A., Sokhan, A., Spurlock, E.E., Sreeramareddy, C.T., Sufiyan, M.B., Swartz, S.J., Tadesse, D.B., Tamiru, A.T., Tefera, Y.G., Temsah, M.-., Tessema, Z.T., Titova, M.V., Tran, B.X., Truong, P.N., Unnikrishnan, B., Upadhyay, E., Vasankari, T.J., Vasseghian, Y., Violante, F.S., G. T., V., Waheed, Y., Wamai, R.G., Wassie, E.G., Welay, F.T., Wickramasinghe, N.D., Wiens, K.E., Wijeratne, T., Wiysonge, C.S., Wondmeneh, T.G., Yamada, T., Yaya, S., Yeshitila, Y.G., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Yu, C., Yuce, D., Yusefzadeh, H., Zaidi, Z., Zamanian, M., Zangeneh, A., Zhang, Z.-., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Hay, S.I., Reiner, RC Jr, Welgan, CA, Troeger, CE, Baumann, MM, Duko, Bereket, Hay, Simon I, LBD Triple Collaborators, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Reiner, R, Welgan, C, Troeger, C, Baumann, M, Weiss, D, Deshpande, A, Blacker, B, Miller-Petrie, M, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, A, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Aghaali, M, Aji, B, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alhassan, R, Ali, S, Alizade, H, Aljunid, S, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Amini, S, Amugsi, D, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, C, Ansari, F, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Atout, M, Ausloos, M, Ausloos, F, Ayanore, M, Aynalem, Y, Azene, Z, Badawi, A, Baig, A, Banach, M, Bedi, N, Bhagavathula, A, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bijani, A, Birhanu, T, Bitew, Z, Boloor, A, Brady, O, Butt, Z, Car, J, Carvalho, F, Casey, D, Chattu, V, Chowdhury, M, Chu, D, Coelho, C, Cook, A, Damiani, G, Daoud, F, Gela, J, Darwish, A, Daryani, A, Das, J, Davis Weaver, N, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Effiong, A, El Sayed Zaki, M, El Tantawi, M, Enany, S, Fattahi, N, Feigin, V, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Folayan, M, Foroutan, M, Frostad, J, Fukumoto, T, Gaidhane, A, Gebrekrstos, H, Gebremeskel, L, Gebreslassie, A, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, M, Hadgu, F, Hamidi, S, Handiso, D, Hashi, A, Hassan, S, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, H, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hussain, R, Hwang, B, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Irvani, S, Jaafari, J, Javaheri, T, Jha, R, Johnson, K, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Kabir, A, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Karch, A, Kayode, G, Keiyoro, P, Khader, Y, Khalil, I, Khan, M, Khan, G, Khatab, K, Khater, M, Khatib, M, Kianipour, N, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kissoon, N, Kochhar, S, Koolivand, A, Kopec, J, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Kumar, P, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, Lal, D, Lami, F, Landires, I, Lansingh, V, Lasrado, S, La Vecchia, C, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Lee, P, Legrand, K, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Lim, S, Lindstedt, P, Liu, X, Longbottom, J, Lopez, A, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Mahasha, P, Maleki, A, Mamun, A, Mansournia, M, Marczak, L, Martins-Melo, F, Mayala, B, Meharie, B, Melese, A, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengesha, E, Mensah, G, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Moazen, B, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadi, S, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, J, Murray, C, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, Q, Nguyen, H, Nnaji, C, Noubiap, J, Nunez-Samudio, V, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, J, Olusanya, B, Omer, M, Onwujekwe, O, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, S, Owolabi, M, P A, M, Padubidri, J, Pana, A, Peprah, E, Pham, H, Pigott, D, Pirestani, M, Postma, M, Pottoo, F, Pourjafar, H, Quazi Syed, Z, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rao, S, Rao, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, D, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, L, Renzaho, A, Rezaei, N, Rezai, M, Ribeiro, A, Rickard, J, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Rumisha, S, Sabour, S, Sajadi, S, Salomon, J, Samadi Kafil, H, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sartorius, B, Saxena, D, Schaeffer, L, Senthilkumaran, S, Sha, F, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shigematsu, M, Il Shin, J, Simonetti, B, Singh, J, Smith, D, Soheili, A, Sokhan, A, Spurlock, E, Sreeramareddy, C, Sufiyan, M, Swartz, S, Tadesse, D, Tamiru, A, Tefera, Y, Temsah, M, Tessema, Z, Titova, M, Tran, B, Truong, P, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Vasankari, T, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, F, Vu, G, Waheed, Y, Wamai, R, Wassie, E, Welay, F, Wickramasinghe, N, Wiens, K, Wijeratne, T, Wiysonge, C, Wondmeneh, T, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshitila, Y, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zaidi, Z, Zamanian, M, Zangeneh, A, Zhang, Z, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Clinicum, Helsinki University Hospital Area, and Department of Oncology
- Subjects
Multidisciplinary ,Settore MED/42 - Igiene Generale e Applicata ,3122 Cancers ,malaria ,General Physics and Astronomy ,COVID-19 ,General Chemistry ,3126 Surgery, anesthesiology, intensive care, radiology ,infectious diseases ,Sub-Saharian Africa ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica ,Children mortality ,epidemiology ,biogeography - Abstract
Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s). Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.
- Published
- 2022
5. The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children
- Author
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Reiner, R, Welgan, C, Troeger, C, Baumann, M, Weiss, D, Deshpande, A, Blacker, B, Miller-Petrie, M, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, A, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Aghaali, M, Aji, B, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alhassan, R, Ali, S, Alizade, H, Aljunid, S, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Amini, S, Amugsi, D, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, C, Ansari, F, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Atout, M, Ausloos, M, Ausloos, F, Ayanore, M, Aynalem, Y, Azene, Z, Badawi, A, Baig, A, Banach, M, Bedi, N, Bhagavathula, A, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bijani, A, Birhanu, T, Bitew, Z, Boloor, A, Brady, O, Butt, Z, Car, J, Carvalho, F, Casey, D, Chattu, V, Chowdhury, M, Chu, D, Coelho, C, Cook, A, Damiani, G, Daoud, F, Gela, J, Darwish, A, Daryani, A, Das, J, Davis Weaver, N, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Effiong, A, El Sayed Zaki, M, El Tantawi, M, Enany, S, Fattahi, N, Feigin, V, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Folayan, M, Foroutan, M, Frostad, J, Fukumoto, T, Gaidhane, A, Gebrekrstos, H, Gebremeskel, L, Gebreslassie, A, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, M, Hadgu, F, Hamidi, S, Handiso, D, Hashi, A, Hassan, S, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, H, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hussain, R, Hwang, B, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Irvani, S, Jaafari, J, Javaheri, T, Jha, R, Johnson, K, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Kabir, A, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Karch, A, Kayode, G, Keiyoro, P, Khader, Y, Khalil, I, Khan, M, Khan, G, Khatab, K, Khater, M, Khatib, M, Kianipour, N, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kissoon, N, Kochhar, S, Koolivand, A, Kopec, J, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Kumar, P, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, Lal, D, Lami, F, Landires, I, Lansingh, V, Lasrado, S, La Vecchia, C, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Lee, P, Legrand, K, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Lim, S, Lindstedt, P, Liu, X, Longbottom, J, Lopez, A, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Mahasha, P, Maleki, A, Mamun, A, Mansournia, M, Marczak, L, Martins-Melo, F, Mayala, B, Meharie, B, Melese, A, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengesha, E, Mensah, G, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Moazen, B, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadi, S, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, J, Murray, C, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, Q, Nguyen, H, Nnaji, C, Noubiap, J, Nunez-Samudio, V, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, J, Olusanya, B, Omer, M, Onwujekwe, O, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, S, Owolabi, M, P A, M, Padubidri, J, Pana, A, Peprah, E, Pham, H, Pigott, D, Pirestani, M, Postma, M, Pottoo, F, Pourjafar, H, Quazi Syed, Z, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rao, S, Rao, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, D, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, L, Renzaho, A, Rezaei, N, Rezai, M, Ribeiro, A, Rickard, J, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Rumisha, S, Sabour, S, Sajadi, S, Salomon, J, Samadi Kafil, H, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sartorius, B, Saxena, D, Schaeffer, L, Senthilkumaran, S, Sha, F, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shigematsu, M, Il Shin, J, Simonetti, B, Singh, J, Smith, D, Soheili, A, Sokhan, A, Spurlock, E, Sreeramareddy, C, Sufiyan, M, Swartz, S, Tadesse, D, Tamiru, A, Tefera, Y, Temsah, M, Tessema, Z, Titova, M, Tran, B, Truong, P, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Vasankari, T, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, F, Vu, G, Waheed, Y, Wamai, R, Wassie, E, Welay, F, Wickramasinghe, N, Wiens, K, Wijeratne, T, Wiysonge, C, Wondmeneh, T, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshitila, Y, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zaidi, Z, Zamanian, M, Zangeneh, A, Zhang, Z, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, Reiner R. C., Welgan C. A., Troeger C. E., Baumann M. M., Weiss D. J., Deshpande A., Blacker B. F., Miller-Petrie M. K., Earl L., Bhatt S., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A. E., Abu-Gharbieh E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O. O., Aghaali M., Aji B., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alhassan R. K., Ali S., Alizade H., Aljunid S. M., Almasi-Hashiani A., Al-Mekhlafi H. M., Altirkawi K. A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A. T., Amini S., Amugsi D. A., Ancuceanu R., Andrei C. L., Ansari F., Anvari D., Appiah S. C. Y., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Atout M. M. W., Ausloos M., Ausloos F., Ayanore M. A., Aynalem Y. A., Azene Z. N., Badawi A., Baig A. A., Banach M., Bedi N., Bhagavathula A. S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z. A., Bijani A., Birhanu T. T. M., Bitew Z. W., Boloor A., Brady O. J., Butt Z. A., Car J., Carvalho F., Casey D. C., Chattu V. K., Chowdhury M. A. K., Chu D. -T., Coelho C. H., Cook A. J., Damiani G., Daoud F., Gela J. D., Darwish A. H., Daryani A., Das J. K., Davis Weaver N., Deribe K., Desalew A., Dharmaratne S. D., Dianatinasab M., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Dorostkar F., Dubljanin E., Duko B., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Effiong A., El Sayed Zaki M., El Tantawi M., Enany S., Fattahi N., Feigin V. L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Fischer F., Foigt N. A., Folayan M. O., Foroutan M., Frostad J. J., Fukumoto T., Gaidhane A. M., Gebrekrstos H. G. G. K., Gebremeskel L., Gebreslassie A. A., Gething P. W., Gezae K. E., Ghadiri K., Ghashghaee A., Golechha M., Gubari M. I. M., Hadgu F. B., Hamidi S., Handiso D. W., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hayat K., Herteliu C., Ho H. C., Holla R., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hussain R., Hwang B. -F., Ibitoye S. E., Ilesanmi O. S., Ilic I. M., Ilic M. D., Irvani S. S. N., Jaafari J., Javaheri T., Jha R. P., Johnson K. B., Jonas J. B., Jozwiak J. J., Kabir A., Kalhor R., Kanchan T., Karch A., Kayode G. A., Keiyoro P. N., Khader Y. S., Khalil I. A., Khan M. N., Khan M., Khan G., Khatab K., Khater M. M., Khatib M. N., Kianipour N., Kim Y. J., Kimokoti R. W., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kissoon N., Kochhar S., Koolivand A., Kopec J. A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Kumar P., Kurmi O. P., Kusuma D., Lal D. K., Lami F. H., Landires I., Lansingh V. C., Lasrado S., La Vecchia C., Lazzar-Atwood A., Lee P. H., LeGrand K. E., Lewycka S., Li B., Lim S. S., Lindstedt P. A., Liu X., Longbottom J., Lopez A. D., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Mahasha P. W., Maleki A., Mamun A. A., Mansournia M. A., Marczak L. B., Martins-Melo F. R., Mayala B. K., Meharie B. G., Melese A., Mendoza W., Menezes R. G., Mengesha E. W., Mensah G. A., Meretoja T. J., Mestrovic T., Miller T. R., Mirrakhimov E. M., Moazen B., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadi S., Mohammed S., Mokdad A. H., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J. F., Murray C. J. L., Naderi M., Nagarajan A. J., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J. W., Nguyen Q. A. P., Nguyen H. L. T., Nnaji C. A., Noubiap J. J., Nunez-Samudio V., Olagunju A. T., Olusanya J. O., Olusanya B. O., Omer M. O., Onwujekwe O. E., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S. S., Owolabi M. O., P A M., Padubidri J. R., Pana A., Peprah E. K., Pham H. Q., Pigott D. M., Pirestani M., Postma M. J., Pottoo F. H., Pourjafar H., Quazi Syed Z., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M. H. U., Rao S. J., Rao P. C., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D. L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Regassa L. D., Renzaho A. M. N., Rezaei N., Rezai M. S., Ribeiro A. I., Rickard J., Rios-Gonzalez C. M., Rumisha S. F., Sabour S., Sajadi S. M., Salomon J. A., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A. M., Sanabria J., Sartorius B., Saxena D., Schaeffer L. E., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shaheen A. A., Shaikh M. A., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Il Shin J., Simonetti B., Singh J. A., Smith D. L., Soheili A., Sokhan A., Spurlock E. E., Sreeramareddy C. T., Sufiyan M. B., Swartz S. J., Tadesse D. B., Tamiru A. T., Tefera Y. G., Temsah M. -H., Tessema Z. T., Titova M. V., Tran B. X., Truong P. N., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Vasankari T. J., Vasseghian Y., Violante F. S., Vu G. T., Waheed Y., Wamai R. G., Wassie E. G., Welay F. T., Wickramasinghe N. D., Wiens K. E., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C. S., Wondmeneh T. G., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yeshitila Y. G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yu C., Yuce D., Yusefzadeh H., Zaidi Z., Zamanian M., Zangeneh A., Zhang Z. -J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S. I., Reiner, R, Welgan, C, Troeger, C, Baumann, M, Weiss, D, Deshpande, A, Blacker, B, Miller-Petrie, M, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Abolhassani, H, Abosetugn, A, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Aghaali, M, Aji, B, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alhassan, R, Ali, S, Alizade, H, Aljunid, S, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, H, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Amini, S, Amugsi, D, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, C, Ansari, F, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Atout, M, Ausloos, M, Ausloos, F, Ayanore, M, Aynalem, Y, Azene, Z, Badawi, A, Baig, A, Banach, M, Bedi, N, Bhagavathula, A, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bijani, A, Birhanu, T, Bitew, Z, Boloor, A, Brady, O, Butt, Z, Car, J, Carvalho, F, Casey, D, Chattu, V, Chowdhury, M, Chu, D, Coelho, C, Cook, A, Damiani, G, Daoud, F, Gela, J, Darwish, A, Daryani, A, Das, J, Davis Weaver, N, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Effiong, A, El Sayed Zaki, M, El Tantawi, M, Enany, S, Fattahi, N, Feigin, V, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Fischer, F, Foigt, N, Folayan, M, Foroutan, M, Frostad, J, Fukumoto, T, Gaidhane, A, Gebrekrstos, H, Gebremeskel, L, Gebreslassie, A, Gething, P, Gezae, K, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, M, Hadgu, F, Hamidi, S, Handiso, D, Hashi, A, Hassan, S, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, H, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hussain, R, Hwang, B, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Irvani, S, Jaafari, J, Javaheri, T, Jha, R, Johnson, K, Jonas, J, Jozwiak, J, Kabir, A, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Karch, A, Kayode, G, Keiyoro, P, Khader, Y, Khalil, I, Khan, M, Khan, G, Khatab, K, Khater, M, Khatib, M, Kianipour, N, Kim, Y, Kimokoti, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kissoon, N, Kochhar, S, Koolivand, A, Kopec, J, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Kumar, P, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, Lal, D, Lami, F, Landires, I, Lansingh, V, Lasrado, S, La Vecchia, C, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Lee, P, Legrand, K, Lewycka, S, Li, B, Lim, S, Lindstedt, P, Liu, X, Longbottom, J, Lopez, A, Magdy Abd El Razek, H, Mahasha, P, Maleki, A, Mamun, A, Mansournia, M, Marczak, L, Martins-Melo, F, Mayala, B, Meharie, B, Melese, A, Mendoza, W, Menezes, R, Mengesha, E, Mensah, G, Meretoja, T, Mestrovic, T, Miller, T, Mirrakhimov, E, Moazen, B, Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N, Mohammadi, S, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Moradi, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, J, Murray, C, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, J, Nguyen, Q, Nguyen, H, Nnaji, C, Noubiap, J, Nunez-Samudio, V, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, J, Olusanya, B, Omer, M, Onwujekwe, O, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, S, Owolabi, M, P A, M, Padubidri, J, Pana, A, Peprah, E, Pham, H, Pigott, D, Pirestani, M, Postma, M, Pottoo, F, Pourjafar, H, Quazi Syed, Z, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, M, Rao, S, Rao, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, D, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, L, Renzaho, A, Rezaei, N, Rezai, M, Ribeiro, A, Rickard, J, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Rumisha, S, Sabour, S, Sajadi, S, Salomon, J, Samadi Kafil, H, Samy, A, Sanabria, J, Sartorius, B, Saxena, D, Schaeffer, L, Senthilkumaran, S, Sha, F, Shaheen, A, Shaikh, M, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shigematsu, M, Il Shin, J, Simonetti, B, Singh, J, Smith, D, Soheili, A, Sokhan, A, Spurlock, E, Sreeramareddy, C, Sufiyan, M, Swartz, S, Tadesse, D, Tamiru, A, Tefera, Y, Temsah, M, Tessema, Z, Titova, M, Tran, B, Truong, P, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Vasankari, T, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, F, Vu, G, Waheed, Y, Wamai, R, Wassie, E, Welay, F, Wickramasinghe, N, Wiens, K, Wijeratne, T, Wiysonge, C, Wondmeneh, T, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshitila, Y, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zaidi, Z, Zamanian, M, Zangeneh, A, Zhang, Z, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, Reiner R. C., Welgan C. A., Troeger C. E., Baumann M. M., Weiss D. J., Deshpande A., Blacker B. F., Miller-Petrie M. K., Earl L., Bhatt S., Abolhassani H., Abosetugn A. E., Abu-Gharbieh E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O. O., Aghaali M., Aji B., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alhassan R. K., Ali S., Alizade H., Aljunid S. M., Almasi-Hashiani A., Al-Mekhlafi H. M., Altirkawi K. A., Alvis-Guzman N., Amare A. T., Amini S., Amugsi D. A., Ancuceanu R., Andrei C. L., Ansari F., Anvari D., Appiah S. C. Y., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Atout M. M. W., Ausloos M., Ausloos F., Ayanore M. A., Aynalem Y. A., Azene Z. N., Badawi A., Baig A. A., Banach M., Bedi N., Bhagavathula A. S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z. A., Bijani A., Birhanu T. T. M., Bitew Z. W., Boloor A., Brady O. J., Butt Z. A., Car J., Carvalho F., Casey D. C., Chattu V. K., Chowdhury M. A. K., Chu D. -T., Coelho C. H., Cook A. J., Damiani G., Daoud F., Gela J. D., Darwish A. H., Daryani A., Das J. K., Davis Weaver N., Deribe K., Desalew A., Dharmaratne S. D., Dianatinasab M., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Dorostkar F., Dubljanin E., Duko B., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Effiong A., El Sayed Zaki M., El Tantawi M., Enany S., Fattahi N., Feigin V. L., Fernandes E., Ferrara P., Fischer F., Foigt N. A., Folayan M. O., Foroutan M., Frostad J. J., Fukumoto T., Gaidhane A. M., Gebrekrstos H. G. G. K., Gebremeskel L., Gebreslassie A. A., Gething P. W., Gezae K. E., Ghadiri K., Ghashghaee A., Golechha M., Gubari M. I. M., Hadgu F. B., Hamidi S., Handiso D. W., Hashi A., Hassan S., Hayat K., Herteliu C., Ho H. C., Holla R., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hussain R., Hwang B. -F., Ibitoye S. E., Ilesanmi O. S., Ilic I. M., Ilic M. D., Irvani S. S. N., Jaafari J., Javaheri T., Jha R. P., Johnson K. B., Jonas J. B., Jozwiak J. J., Kabir A., Kalhor R., Kanchan T., Karch A., Kayode G. A., Keiyoro P. N., Khader Y. S., Khalil I. A., Khan M. N., Khan M., Khan G., Khatab K., Khater M. M., Khatib M. N., Kianipour N., Kim Y. J., Kimokoti R. W., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kissoon N., Kochhar S., Koolivand A., Kopec J. A., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Kumar P., Kurmi O. P., Kusuma D., Lal D. K., Lami F. H., Landires I., Lansingh V. C., Lasrado S., La Vecchia C., Lazzar-Atwood A., Lee P. H., LeGrand K. E., Lewycka S., Li B., Lim S. S., Lindstedt P. A., Liu X., Longbottom J., Lopez A. D., Magdy Abd El Razek H., Mahasha P. W., Maleki A., Mamun A. A., Mansournia M. A., Marczak L. B., Martins-Melo F. R., Mayala B. K., Meharie B. G., Melese A., Mendoza W., Menezes R. G., Mengesha E. W., Mensah G. A., Meretoja T. J., Mestrovic T., Miller T. R., Mirrakhimov E. M., Moazen B., Mohammad Gholi Mezerji N., Mohammadi S., Mohammed S., Mokdad A. H., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J. F., Murray C. J. L., Naderi M., Nagarajan A. J., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J. W., Nguyen Q. A. P., Nguyen H. L. T., Nnaji C. A., Noubiap J. J., Nunez-Samudio V., Olagunju A. T., Olusanya J. O., Olusanya B. O., Omer M. O., Onwujekwe O. E., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S. S., Owolabi M. O., P A M., Padubidri J. R., Pana A., Peprah E. K., Pham H. Q., Pigott D. M., Pirestani M., Postma M. J., Pottoo F. H., Pourjafar H., Quazi Syed Z., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M. H. U., Rao S. J., Rao P. C., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D. L., Rawal L., Rawassizadeh R., Regassa L. D., Renzaho A. M. N., Rezaei N., Rezai M. S., Ribeiro A. I., Rickard J., Rios-Gonzalez C. M., Rumisha S. F., Sabour S., Sajadi S. M., Salomon J. A., Samadi Kafil H., Samy A. M., Sanabria J., Sartorius B., Saxena D., Schaeffer L. E., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shaheen A. A., Shaikh M. A., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shibuya K., Shigematsu M., Il Shin J., Simonetti B., Singh J. A., Smith D. L., Soheili A., Sokhan A., Spurlock E. E., Sreeramareddy C. T., Sufiyan M. B., Swartz S. J., Tadesse D. B., Tamiru A. T., Tefera Y. G., Temsah M. -H., Tessema Z. T., Titova M. V., Tran B. X., Truong P. N., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Vasankari T. J., Vasseghian Y., Violante F. S., Vu G. T., Waheed Y., Wamai R. G., Wassie E. G., Welay F. T., Wickramasinghe N. D., Wiens K. E., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C. S., Wondmeneh T. G., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yeshitila Y. G., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yu C., Yuce D., Yusefzadeh H., Zaidi Z., Zamanian M., Zangeneh A., Zhang Z. -J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., and Hay S. I.
- Abstract
Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.
- Published
- 2022
6. Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
- Author
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Haeuser, E, Serfes, AL, Cork, MA, Yang, M, Abbastabar, H, Abhilash, ES, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adeyinka, DA, Afzal, S, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, RO, Akunna, CJ, Alahdab, F, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alene, KA, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ameyaw, EK, Amini, S, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Anvari, D, Appiah, SCY, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asemahagn, MA, Jafarabadi, MA, Awedew, AF, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azari, S, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Babalola, TK, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bärnighausen, TW, Bell, AW, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bijani, A, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bolarinwa, OA, Boloor, A, Bozicevic, I, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Charan, J, Chattu, VK, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Cowden, RG, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Darteh, EKM, Darwesh, AM, das Neves, J, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, S, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Djalalinia, S, Dorostkar, F, Dubljanin, E, Duko, B, El Tantawi, M, El-Jaafary, SI, Eshrati, B, Eskandarieh, S, Eyawo, O, Ezeonwumelu, IJ, Ezzikouri, S, Farzadfar, F, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, AM, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Getacher, L, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Golechha, M, Gubari, MIM, Gugnani, HC, Guimarães, RA, Haider, MR, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamidi, S, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Islam, RM, Iwu, CCD, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joshua, V, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khubchandani, J, Kim, YJ, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kopec, JA, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kugbey, N, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Larson, HJ, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, Li, S, Liu, X, Maleki, A, Malik, P, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, EW, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moradi, M, Moraga, P, Mubarik, S, Mulu, GBB, Mwanri, L, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Naveed, M, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Negoi, I, Ngalesoni, FN, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Nuñez-Samudio, V, Nwatah, VE, Oancea, B, Odukoya, OO, Olagunju, AT, Olakunde, BO, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Orisakwe, OE, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, Owolabi, MO, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pandi-Perumal, SR, Kan, FP, Patton, GC, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Postma, MJ, Preotescu, L, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Regassa, LD, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Riaz, MA, Ribeiro, AI, Ross, JM, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Moghaddam, SS, Sagar, R, Sahiledengle, B, Sahu, M, Salem, MR, Kafil, HS, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Seidu, A-A, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shamsizadeh, M, Shiferaw, WS, Shin, JI, Shrestha, R, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Soltani, S, Sufiyan, MB, Tabuchi, T, Tadesse, EG, Taveira, N, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Villafañe, JH, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Vu, GT, Wado, YD, Waheed, Y, Wamai, RG, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Wickramasinghe, ND, Wilson, K, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Hay, SI, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Local Burden of Disease sub-Saharan Africa HIV Prevalence Collaborators, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Haeuser, Emily, Serfes, Audrey L., Cork, Michael A., Yang, Mingyou, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Dwyer Lindgrena, Laura, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Helsinki University Hospital Area, Department of Oncology, Epidemiologie, and RS: NUTRIM - R3 - Respiratory & Age-related Health
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Male ,Adult ,Settore MED/17 - Malattie Infettive ,Adolescent ,Settore MED/42 - Igiene Generale e Applicata ,HIV Infections ,Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica ,Young Adult ,HIV Infections/prevention & control ,Pregnancy ,Seroepidemiologic Studies ,General & Internal Medicine ,Prevalence ,Humans ,Geostatistics ,Africa ,Demographics ,HIV ,HIV prevalence ,Mapping ,Spatial statistics ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,Africa South of the Sahara ,Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ,Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/epidemiology ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,Settore SECS-S/04 - Demografia ,Africa South of the Sahara/epidemiology ,3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health ,3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine ,Female - Abstract
Background Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.
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- 2022
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7. Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018
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Bhattacharjee, NV, Schaeffer, LE, Hay, SI, Lu, D, Schipp, MF, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Donkers, KM, Abady, GG, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abebo, ZH, Abejie, AN, Abosetugn, AE, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Abushouk, AI, Adamu, AL, Adedeji, IA, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Aji, B, Akinyemi, OO, Alamneh, AA, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Albright, J, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemu, BW, Alhassan, RK, Ali, BA, Ali, S, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Anbesu, EW, Ancuceanu, R, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arora, A, Artanti, KD, Asemahagn, MA, Asmare, WN, Atout, MMW, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Ayza, MA, Azene, ZN, Darshan, BB, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bakkannavar, SM, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Bärnighausen, TW, Basaleem, H, Bayati, M, Baye, BA, Bedi, N, Belay, SA, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhandari, D, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birhan, TA, Birihane, BM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Bohluli, M, Bojia, HA, Boloor, A, Brady, OJ, Bragazzi, NL, Brunoni, AR, Budhathoki, SS, Nagaraja, SB, Butt, ZA, Cárdenas, R, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castro, F, Cernigliaro, A, Charan, J, Chatterjee, P, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chaturvedi, S, Chowdhury, MAK, Chu, D-T, Collison, ML, Cook, AJ, Cork, MA, Couto, RAS, Dagnew, B, Dai, H, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daneshpajouhnejad, P, Darwesh, AM, Darwish, AH, Daryani, A, Das, JK, Gupta, RD, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Davis, AC, Weaver, ND, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Deribe, K, Desalew, A, Deshpande, A, Dessie, A, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhimal, M, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Didarloo, A, Dipeolu, IO, Doan, LP, Duko, B, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Zaki, MES, Tantawi, ME, Elema, TB, Elhabashy, HR, El-Jaafary, SI, Faris, PS, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Feigin, VL, Feleke, BE, Ferede, TY, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Franklin, RC, Gad, MM, Gaidhane, S, Gardner, WM, Geberemariyam, BS, Gebregiorgis, BG, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremichael, B, Ghaffarpasand, F, Gilani, SA, Ginindza, TG, Glagn, M, Golechha, M, Gonfa, KB, Goulart, BNG, Gudi, N, Guido, D, Guled, RA, Guo, Y, Hamidi, S, Handiso, DW, Hasaballah, AI, Hassan, A, Hayat, K, Hegazy, MI, Heidari, B, Henry, NJ, Herteliu, C, de, Hidru, HD, Ho, HC, Hoang, CL, Holla, R, Hon, J, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hsairi, M, Hu, G, Huda, TM, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, IM, Ilic, MD, Inbaraj, LR, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Islam, MM, Iwu, CCD, Iwu, CJ, Jain, A, Janodia, MD, Javaheri, T, John-Akinola, YO, Johnson, KB, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamath, A, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, OT, Kapoor, N, Matin, BK, Karimi, SE, Kasaye, HK, Kassahun, G, Kassebaum, NJ, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kelkay, B, Khalid, N, Khan, MN, Khatab, K, Khater, AM, Khater, MM, Khatib, MN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kosen, S, Krishan, K, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kumar, P, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, 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Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Ayza M.A., Azene Z.N., Darshan B.B., Badiye A.D., Baig A.A., Bakkannavar S.M., Banach M., Banik P.C., Barnighausen T.W., Basaleem H., Bayati M., Baye B.A., Bedi N., Belay S.A., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhandari D., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birhan T.A., Birihane B.M., Bitew Z.W., Bohlouli S., Bohluli M., Bojia H.A., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Brunoni A.R., Budhathoki S.S., Nagaraja S.B., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Castro F., Cernigliaro A., Charan J., Chatterjee P., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chaturvedi S., Chowdhury M.A.K., Chu D.-T., Collison M.L., Cook A.J., Cork M.A., Couto R.A.S., Dagnew B., Dai H., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daneshpajouhnejad P., Darwesh A.M., Darwish A.H., Daryani A., Das J.K., Gupta R.D., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Davis A.C., Weaver N.D., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Desalew A., Deshpande A., Dessie A., Deuba K., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Dhungana G.P., Diaz D., Didarloo A., Dipeolu I.O., Doan L.P., Duko B., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., Elema T.B., Elhabashy H.R., El-Jaafary S.I., Faris P.S., Faro A., Farzadfar F., Feigin V.L., Feleke B.E., Ferede T.Y., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Franklin R.C., Gad M.M., Gaidhane S., Gardner W.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebregiorgis B.G., Gebremedhin K.B., Gebremichael B., Ghaffarpasand F., Gilani S.A., Ginindza T.G., Glagn M., Golechha M., Gonfa K.B., Goulart B.N.G., Gudi N., Guido D., Guled R.A., Guo Y., Hamidi S., Handiso D.W., Hasaballah A.I., Hassan A., Hayat K., Hegazy M.I., Heidari B., Henry N.J., Herteliu C., de Hidru H.D., Ho H.C., Hoang C.L., Holla R., Hon J., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hsairi M., Hu G., Huda T.M., Hwang B.-F., Ibitoye S.E., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Inbaraj L.R., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam M.M., Iwu C.C.D., Iwu C.J., Jain A., Janodia M.D., Javaheri T., John-Akinola Y.O., Johnson K.B., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir A., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A., Kamyari N., Kanchan O.T., Kapoor N., Matin B.K., Karimi S.E., Kasaye H.K., Kassahun G., Kassebaum N.J., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keiyoro P.N., Kelkay B., Khalid N., Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khater A.M., Khater M.M., Khatib M.N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kosen S., Krishan K., Kulkarni V., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar N., Kumar P., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Landires I., Lansingh V.C., Lasrado S., Lee P.H., LeGrand K.E., Letourneau I.D., Lewycka S., Li B., Li M.-C., Li S., Liu X., Lodha R., Lopez J.C.F., Louie C., Machado D.B., Maled V., Maleki S., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Mapoma C.C., Marczak L.B., Martins-Melo F.R., Mehndiratta M.M., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Mekonnen T.C., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mengesha E.W., Mersha A.M., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Misra S., Moghadaszadeh M., Mohammad D.K., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed J.A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Montero-Zamora P.A., Moradi M., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Khaneghah A.M., Munro S.B., Muriithi M.K., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Nagarajan A.J., Naik G., Naimzada M.D., Nangia V., Nascimento B.R., Nayak V.C., Ndejjo R., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen D.N., Nguyen H.L.T., Nigussie S.N., Nigussie T.T.N., Nikbakhsh R., Nnaji C.A., Nunez-Samudio V., Oancea B., Oghenetega O.B., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Omer M.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.V., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Otstavnov N., Otstavnov S.S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Padubidri J.R., Pana A., Pandey A., Pandi-Perumal S.R., Pangaribuan H.U., Parsekar S.S., Pasupula D.K., Patel U.K., Pathak A., Pathak M., Pattanshetty S.M., Patton G.C., Paulos K., Pepito V.C.F., Pickering B.V., Pinheiro M., Piwoz E.G., Pokhrel K.N., Pourjafar H., Prada S.I., Pribadi D.R.A., Syed Z.Q., Rabiee M., Rabiee N., Rahim F., Rahimzadeh S., Rahman A., Rahman M.H.U., Rahmani A.M., Rai R.K., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rastogi P., Rathi P., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawassizadeh R., Rawat R., Regassa L.D., Rego M.A.S., Reiner R.C., Reshmi B., Rezapour A., Ribeiro A.I., Rickard J., Roever L., Rumisha S.F., Rwegerera G.M., Sagar R., Sajadi S.M., Salem M.R., Samy A.M., Santric-Milicevic M.M., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarker A.R., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Saxena D., Sbarra A.N., Sengupta D., Senthilkumaran S., Sha F., Shafaat O., Shaheen A.A., Shaikh M.A., Shalash A.S., Shannawaz M., Sheikh A., Shetty B.S.K., Shetty R.S., Shibuya K., Shiferaw W.S., Shin J.I., Silva D.A.S., Singh N.P., Singh P., Singh S., Sintayehu Y., Skryabin V.Y., Skryabina A.A., Soheili A., Soltani S., Sorrie M.B., Spurlock E.E., Steuben K.M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Swartz S.J., Tadesse E.G., Tamiru A.T., Tapak L., Tareque M.I., Tarigan I.U., Tesema G.A., Tesfay F.H., Teshome A., Tessema Z.T., Thankappan K.R., Thapar R., Thomas N., Topor-Madry R., Tovani-Palone M.R., Traini E., Tran B.X., Truong P.N., Tsegaye B.T.B.T., Ullah I., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Upadhyay E., Uzochukwu B.S.C., VanderHeide J.D., Violante F.S., Vo B., Wado Y.D., Waheed Y., Wamai R.G., Wang F., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wiens K.E., Wiysonge C.S., Woyczynski L., Wu A.-M., Wu C., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yeshaneh A., Yeshaw Y., Yeshitila Y.G., Yilma M.T., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yosef T., Younis M.Z., Yousuf A.Y., Yu C., Yu Y., Yuce D., Zafar S., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zakzuk J., Zamanian M., Zar H.J., Zastrozhin M.S., Zastrozhina A., Zelellw D.A., Zhang Y., Zhang Z.-J., Zhao X.-J.G., Zodpey S., Zuniga Y.M.H., Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding, and Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto
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RJ101 ,Psychological intervention ,Breastfeeding ,Social Sciences ,geography ,Behavioral Neuroscience ,0302 clinical medicine ,RA0421 ,Prevalence ,Psychology ,policy making ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Policy Making ,humans ,media_common ,CHILD GROWTH FAILURE ,Developing world ,0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,Psychology, Biological ,Geography ,Psychology, Experimental ,Health Status Disparitie ,Multidisciplinary Sciences ,Breast Feeding ,breast feeding ,Scale (social sciences) ,Science & Technology - Other Topics ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Human ,AFRICA ,Social Psychology ,Inequality ,spatial analysis ,media_common.quotation_subject ,public policy ,Population ,prevalence ,Public policy ,Developing country ,Experimental and Cognitive Psychology ,Public Policy ,Local Burden of Disease Exclusive Breastfeeding Collaborators ,Article ,Developing Countrie ,03 medical and health sciences ,Environmental health ,Humans ,Nutrition disorders ,education ,Developing Countries ,030304 developmental biology ,Spatial Analysis ,Science & Technology ,Neurosciences ,Health Status Disparities ,developing countries ,health status disparities ,Risk factors ,Neurosciences & Neurology ,Breast feeding - Abstract
Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030., Bhattacharjee and Schaeffer et al. map exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) in 94 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), finding increased EBF practice and reduced subnational variation across the majority of LMICs from 2000 to 2018. However, only six LMICs will meet WHO’s target of ≥70% EBF by 2030 nationally, and only three will achieve this in all districts.
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- 2021
8. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study
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Sartorius, B., VanderHeide, J.D., Yang, M., Goosmann, E.A., Hon, J., Haeuser, E., Cork, M.A., Perkins, S., Jahagirdar, D., Schaeffer, L.E., Serfes, A.L., LeGrand, K.E., Abbastabar, H., Abebo, Z.H., Abosetugn, A.E., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Accrombessi, M.M.K., Adebayo, O.M., Adegbosin, A.E., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O.O., Adeyinka, D.A., Ahinkorah, B.O., Ahmadi, K., Ahmed, M.B., Akalu, Y., Akinyemi, O.O., Akinyemi, R.O., Aklilu, A., Akunna, C.J., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, N., Alamneh, A.A., Alanzi, T.M., Alemu, B.W., Alhassan, R.K., Ali, T., Alipour, V., Amini, S., Ancuceanu, R., Ansari, F., Anteneh, Z.A., Anvari, D., Anwer, R., Appiah, S.C.Y., Arabloo, J., Asemahagn, M.A., Asghari Jafarabadi, M., Asmare, W.N., Atnafu, D.D., Atout, M.M.W., Atreya, A., Ausloos, M., Awedew, A.F., Ayala Quintanilla, B.P., Ayanore, M.A., Aynalem, Y.A., Ayza, M.A., Azari, S., Azene, Z.N., Babar, Z.-U.-D., Baig, A.A., Balakrishnan, S., Banach, M., Bärnighausen, T.W., Basu, S., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Bekuma, T.T., Bezabhe, W.M.M., Bhagavathula, A.S., Bhardwaj, P., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhutta, Z.A., Bibi, S., Bikbov, B., Birhan, T.A., Bitew, Z.W., Bockarie, M.J., Boloor, A., Brady, O.J., Bragazzi, N.L., Briko, A.N., Briko, N.I., Burugina Nagaraja, S., Butt, Z.A., Cárdenas, R., Carvalho, F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chowdhury, M.A.K., Chu, D.-T., Cook, A.J., Cormier, N.M., Cowden, R.G., Culquichicon, C., Dagnew, B., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Damiani, G., Daneshpajouhnejad, P., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., das Neves, J., Davis Weaver, N., Derbew Molla, M., Deribe, K., Desta, A.A., Deuba, K., Dharmaratne, S.D., Dhungana, G.P., Diaz, D., Djalalinia, S., Doku, P.N., Dubljanin, E., Duko, B., Eagan, A.W., Earl, L., Eaton, J.W., Effiong, A., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., Elayedath, R., El-Jaafary, S.I., Elsharkawy, A., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezzikouri, S., Fasanmi, A.O., Fasil, A., Fauk, N.K., Feigin, V.L., Ferede, T.Y., Fernandes, E., Fischer, F., Foigt, N.A., Folayan, M.O., Foroutan, M., Francis, J.M., Fukumoto, T., Gad, M.M., Geberemariyam, B.S., Gebregiorgis, B., Gebremichael, B., Gesesew, H.A., Getacher, L., Ghadiri, K., Ghashghaee, A., Gilani, S.A., Ginindza, T.G., Glagn, M., Golechha, M., Gona, P.N., Gubari, M.I.M., Gugnani, H.C., Guido, D., Guled, R.A., Hall, B.J., Hamidi, S., Handiso, D.W., Hargono, A., Hashi, A., Hassanipour, S., Hassankhani, H., Hayat, K., Herteliu, C., de Hidru, H.D., Holla, R., Hosgood, H.D., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Househ, M., Hwang, B.-F., Ibitoye, S.E., Ilesanmi, O.S., Ilic, I.M., Ilic, M.D., Irvani, S.S.N., Iwu, C.C.D., Iwu, C.J., Iyamu, I.O., Jain, V., Jakovljevic, M., Jalilian, F., Jha, R.P., Johnson, K.B., Joshua, V., Joukar, F., Jozwiak, J.J., Kabir, A., Kalankesh, L.R., Kalhor, R., Kamath, A., Kamyari, N., Kanchan, T., Karami Matin, B., Karch, A., Karimi, S.E., Kasa, A.S., Kassahun, G., Kayode, G.A., Kazemi Karyani, A., Keiyoro, P.N., Kelkay, B., Khalid, N., Khan, G., Khan, J., Khan, M.N., Khatab, K., Khazaei, S., Kim, Y.J., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kochhar, S., Kopec, J.A., Kosen, S., Koulmane Laxminarayana, S., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Kuate Defo, B., Kugbey, N., Kulkarni, V., Kumar, M., Kumar, N., Kurmi, O.P., Kusuma, D., Kuupiel, D., Kyu, H.H., La Vecchia, C., Lal, D.K., Lam, J.O., Landires, I., Lasrado, S., Lazarus, J.V., Lazzar-Atwood, A., Lee, P.H., Leshargie, C.T., Li, B., Liu, X., Lopukhov, P.D., Amin, H.I.M., Madi, D., Mahasha, P.W., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Maleki, S., Mamun, A.A., Manafi, N., Mansournia, M.A., Martins-Melo, F.R., Masoumi, S.Z., Mayala, B.K., Meharie, B.G., Meheretu, H.A.A., Meles, H.G., Melku, M., Mendoza, W., Mengesha, E.W., Meretoja, T.J., Mersha, A.M., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T.R., Mirica, A., Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M., Mohamad, O., Mohammad, Y., Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A., Mohammed, J.A., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A.H., Mokonnon, T., Molokhia, M., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradzadeh, R., Moraga, P., Mosser, J.F., Munro, S.B., Mustafa, G., Muthupandian, S., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A.J., Naghavi, M., Naveed, M., Nayak, V.C., Nazari, J., Ndejjo, R., Nepal, S., Netsere, H.B., Ngalesoni, F.N., Nguefack-Tsague, G., Ngunjiri, J.W., Nigatu, Y.T., Nigussie, S.N., Nnaji, C.A., Noubiap, J.J., Nuñez-Samudio, V., Oancea, B., Odukoya, O.O., Ogbo, F.A., Oladimeji, O., Olagunju, A.T., Olusanya, B.O., Olusanya, J.O., Omer, M.O., Omonisi, A.E.E., Onwujekwe, O.E., Orisakwe, O.E., Otstavnov, N., Owolabi, M.O., Mahesh, P.A., Padubidri, J.R., Pakhale, S., Pana, A., Pandi-Perumal, S.R., Patel, U.K., Pathak, M., Patton, G.C., Pawar, S., Peprah, E.K., Pokhrel, K.N., Postma, M.J., Pottoo, F.H., Pourjafar, H., Pribadi, D.R.A., Quazi Syed, Z., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahman, M.H.U., Rahmani, A.M., Ram, P., Rana, J., Ranabhat, C.L., Rao, S., Rao, S.J., Rathi, P., Rawaf, D.L., Rawaf, S., Rawassizadeh, R., Renjith, V., Reta, M.A., Rezaei, N., Rezapour, A., Ribeiro, A.I., Ross, J.M., Rumisha, S.F., Sagar, R., Sahu, M., Sajadi, S.M., Salem, M.R., Samy, A.M., Sathian, B., Schutte, A.E., Seidu, A.-A., Sha, F., Shafaat, O., Shahbaz, M., Shaikh, M.A., Shaka, M.F., Sheikh, A., Shibuya, K., Shin, J.I., Shivakumar, K.M., Sidemo, N.B., Singh, J.A., Skryabin, V.Y., Skryabina, A.A., Soheili, A., Soltani, S., Somefun, O.D., Sorrie, M.B., Spurlock, E.E., Sufiyan, M.B., Taddele, B.W., Tadesse, E.G., Tamir, Z., Tamiru, A.T., Tanser, F.C., Taveira, N., Tehrani-Banihashemi, A., Tekalegn, Y., Tesfay, F.H., Tessema, B., Tessema, Z.T., Thakur, B., Tolani, M.A., Topor-Madry, R., Torrado, M., Tovani-Palone, M.R., Traini, E., Tsai, A.C., Tsegaye, G.W., Ullah, I., Ullah, S., Umeokonkwo, C.D., Unnikrishnan, B., Vardavas, C., Violante, F.S., Vo, B., Wado, Y.D., Waheed, Y., Wamai, R.G., Wang, Y., Ward, P., Werdecker, A., Wickramasinghe, N.D., Wijeratne, T., Wiysonge, C.S., Wondmeneh, T.G., Yamada, T., Yaya, S., Yeshaw, Y., Yeshitila, Y.G., Yilma, M.T., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Yosef, T., Yusefzadeh, H., Zaidi, S.S., Zaki, L., Zamanian, M., Zastrozhin, M.S., Zastrozhina, A., Zewdie, D.T., Zhang, Y., Zhang, Z.-J., Ziapour, A., Hay, S.I., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., LBD HIV Incidence Mortality Collaborators, Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Khatab, Khaled, Sartorius B., VanderHeide J.D., Yang M., Goosmann E.A., Hon J., Haeuser E., Cork M.A., Perkins S., Jahagirdar D., Schaeffer L.E., Serfes A.L., LeGrand K.E., Abbastabar H., Abebo Z.H., Abosetugn A.E., Abu-Gharbieh E., Accrombessi M.M.K., Adebayo O.M., Adegbosin A.E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Adeyinka D.A., Ahinkorah B.O., Ahmadi K., Ahmed M.B., Akalu Y., Akinyemi O.O., Akinyemi R.O., Aklilu A., Akunna C.J., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Alam N., Alamneh A.A., Alanzi T.M., Alemu B.W., Alhassan R.K., Ali T., Alipour V., Amini S., Ancuceanu R., Ansari F., Anteneh Z.A., Anvari D., Anwer R., Appiah S.C.Y., Arabloo J., Asemahagn M.A., Asghari Jafarabadi M., Asmare W.N., Atnafu D.D., Atout M.M.W., Atreya A., Ausloos M., Awedew A.F., Ayala Quintanilla B.P., Ayanore M.A., Aynalem Y.A., Ayza M.A., Azari S., Azene Z.N., Babar Z.-U.-D., Baig A.A., Balakrishnan S., Banach M., Barnighausen T.W., Basu S., Bayati M., Bedi N., Bekuma T.T., Bezabhe W.M.M., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhardwaj P., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bibi S., Bikbov B., Birhan T.A., Bitew Z.W., Bockarie M.J., Boloor A., Brady O.J., Bragazzi N.L., Briko A.N., Briko N.I., Burugina Nagaraja S., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Carvalho F., Charan J., Chatterjee S., Chattu S.K., Chattu V.K., Chowdhury M.A.K., Chu D.-T., Cook A.J., Cormier N.M., Cowden R.G., Culquichicon C., Dagnew B., Dahlawi S.M.A., Damiani G., Daneshpajouhnejad P., Daoud F., Daryani A., das Neves J., Davis Weaver N., Derbew Molla M., Deribe K., Desta A.A., Deuba K., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Doku P.N., Dubljanin E., Duko B., Eagan A.W., Earl L., Eaton J.W., Effiong A., El Sayed Zaki M., El Tantawi M., Elayedath R., El-Jaafary S.I., Elsharkawy A., Eskandarieh S., Eyawo O., Ezzikouri S., Fasanmi A.O., Fasil A., Fauk N.K., Feigin V.L., Ferede T.Y., Fernandes E., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fukumoto T., Gad M.M., Geberemariyam B.S., Gebregiorgis B., Gebremichael B., Gesesew H.A., Getacher L., Ghadiri K., Ghashghaee A., Gilani S.A., Ginindza T.G., Glagn M., Golechha M., Gona P.N., Gubari M.I.M., Gugnani H.C., Guido D., Guled R.A., Hall B.J., Hamidi S., Handiso D.W., Hargono A., Hashi A., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Hayat K., Herteliu C., de Hidru H.D., Holla R., Hosgood H.D., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hwang B.-F., Ibitoye S.E., Ilesanmi O.S., Ilic I.M., Ilic M.D., Irvani S.S.N., Iwu C.C.D., Iwu C.J., Iyamu I.O., Jain V., Jakovljevic M., Jalilian F., Jha R.P., Johnson K.B., Joshua V., Joukar F., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir A., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R., Kamath A., Kamyari N., Kanchan T., Karami Matin B., Karch A., Karimi S.E., Kasa A.S., Kassahun G., Kayode G.A., Kazemi Karyani A., Keiyoro P.N., Kelkay B., Khalid N., Khan G., Khan J., Khan M.N., Khatab K., Khazaei S., Kim Y.J., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kochhar S., Kopec J.A., Kosen S., Koulmane Laxminarayana S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Kuate Defo B., Kugbey N., Kulkarni V., Kumar M., Kumar N., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Kuupiel D., Kyu H.H., La Vecchia C., Lal D.K., Lam J.O., Landires I., Lasrado S., Lazarus J.V., Lazzar-Atwood A., Lee P.H., Leshargie C.T., Li B., Liu X., Lopukhov P.D., Amin H.I.M., Madi D., Mahasha P.W., Majeed A., Maleki A., Maleki S., Mamun A.A., Manafi N., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masoumi S.Z., Mayala B.K., Meharie B.G., Meheretu H.A.A., Meles H.G., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mengesha E.W., Meretoja T.J., Mersha A.M., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Mirica A., Mirzaei-Alavijeh M., Mohamad O., Mohammad Y., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammed J.A., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Mokonnon T., Molokhia M., Moradi M., Moradi Y., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Mosser J.F., Munro S.B., Mustafa G., Muthupandian S., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Naghavi M., Naveed M., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Ndejjo R., Nepal S., Netsere H.B., Ngalesoni F.N., Nguefack-Tsague G., Ngunjiri J.W., Nigatu Y.T., Nigussie S.N., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Nunez-Samudio V., Oancea B., Odukoya O.O., Ogbo F.A., Oladimeji O., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Omer M.O., Omonisi A.E.E., Onwujekwe O.E., Orisakwe O.E., Otstavnov N., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Padubidri J.R., Pakhale S., Pana A., Pandi-Perumal S.R., Patel U.K., Pathak M., Patton G.C., Pawar S., Peprah E.K., Pokhrel K.N., Postma M.J., Pottoo F.H., Pourjafar H., Pribadi D.R.A., Quazi Syed Z., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahman M.H.U., Rahmani A.M., Ram P., Rana J., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S., Rao S.J., Rathi P., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawassizadeh R., Renjith V., Reta M.A., Rezaei N., Rezapour A., Ribeiro A.I., Ross J.M., Rumisha S.F., Sagar R., Sahu M., Sajadi S.M., Salem M.R., Samy A.M., Sathian B., Schutte A.E., Seidu A.-A., Sha F., Shafaat O., Shahbaz M., Shaikh M.A., Shaka M.F., Sheikh A., Shibuya K., Shin J.I., Shivakumar K.M., Sidemo N.B., Singh J.A., Skryabin V.Y., Skryabina A.A., Soheili A., Soltani S., Somefun O.D., Sorrie M.B., Spurlock E.E., Sufiyan M.B., Taddele B.W., Tadesse E.G., Tamir Z., Tamiru A.T., Tanser F.C., Taveira N., Tehrani-Banihashemi A., Tekalegn Y., Tesfay F.H., Tessema B., Tessema Z.T., Thakur B., Tolani M.A., Topor-Madry R., Torrado M., Tovani-Palone M.R., Traini E., Tsai A.C., Tsegaye G.W., Ullah I., Ullah S., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrishnan B., Vardavas C., Violante F.S., Vo B., Wado Y.D., Waheed Y., Wamai R.G., Wang Y., Ward P., Werdecker A., Wickramasinghe N.D., Wijeratne T., Wiysonge C.S., Wondmeneh T.G., Yamada T., Yaya S., Yeshaw Y., Yeshitila Y.G., Yilma M.T., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yosef T., Yusefzadeh H., Zaidi S.S., Zaki L., Zamanian M., Zastrozhin M.S., Zastrozhina A., Zewdie D.T., Zhang Y., Zhang Z.-J., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Local Burden of Disease HIV Collaborators, Duko, Bereket, Yeshaw, Yigizie, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, and Clinicum
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0301 basic medicine ,sub-Saharan Africa ,Male ,HIV Antibodie ,Epidemiology ,HIV incidences ,HIV Infections ,mortality rate ,HIV Antibodies ,Modelling study ,Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence ,0302 clinical medicine ,Africa, Northern ,RA0421 ,Seroepidemiologic Studies ,Medicine ,Northern ,HIV Infection ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Young adult ,10. No inequality ,uncertainty ,Mozambique ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,HIV mortality ,Mortality rate ,Incidence (epidemiology) ,Incidence ,1. No poverty ,Hiv incidence ,article ,Mauritania ,Human immunodeficiency virus infected patient ,Articles ,tracking ,Middle Aged ,health care planning ,3. Good health ,Lesotho ,AIDS ,Infectious Diseases ,QR180 ,A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified ,Female ,prenatal care ,anti human immunodeficiency virus agent ,seroepidemiology ,Human ,Adult ,Adolescent ,Anti-HIV Agents ,Immunology ,antiretroviral therapy ,Unit (housing) ,03 medical and health sciences ,Young Adult ,blood ,Human immunodeficiency virus infection ,Virology ,Seroprevalence ,Humans ,human ,Developing Countries ,Estimation ,Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ,Subnational mappings ,business.industry ,Seroepidemiologic Studie ,HIV ,Anti-HIV Agent ,PREVENTION ,030112 virology ,mortality ,monitoring ,3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine ,Human immunodeficiency virus antibody ,Africa ,business ,HIV incidence ,Subnational mapping ,Sub-Saharan Africa ,Local burden of disease ,Public health ,Demography - Abstract
Background. High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods. In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings. The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation. Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. This work was primarily supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant OPP1132415). Additionally, O Adetokunboh acknowledges the support of the Department of Science and Innovation, and National Research Foundation of South Africa. M Ausloos, A Pana, and C Herteliu are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding (Romania; project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084). T W Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. M J Bockarie is supported by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership. F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Portuguese national funds (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia and Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior; UIDB/info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB/50006/2020/PT, UIDB/04378/2020, and UIDP/04378/2020. K Deribe is supported by the Wellcome Trust (grant 201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. B-F Hwang was partially supported by China Medical University (CMU107-Z-04), Taichung, Taiwan. M Jakovljevic acknowledges support of the Serbia Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development (grant OI 175 014). M N Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. Y J Kim was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia, Malaysia, (XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004). K Krishnan is supported by University Grants Commission Centre of Advanced Study, (CAS II), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar would like to acknowledge National Institutes of Health and Fogarty International Cente (K43TW010716). I Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación, which is supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación, Panama. W Mendoza is a program analyst in population and development at the UN Population Fund Country Office in Peru, which does not necessarily endorse this study. M Phetole received institutional support from the Grants, Innovation and Product Development Unit, South African Medical Research Council. O Odukoya acknowledges support from the Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health (K43TW010704). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the US National Institutes of Health. O Oladimeji is grateful for the support from Walter Sisulu University, Eastern Cape, South Africa, the University of Botswana, Botswana, and the University of Technology of Durban, Durban, South Africa. J R Padubidri acknowledges support from Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, India. G C Patton is supported by an Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council research fellowship. P Rathi acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal India. A I Ribeiro was supported by National Funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, under the programme of Stimulus of Scientific Employment–Individual Support (info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/CEEC IND 2018/CEECIND/02386/2018/CP1538/CT0001/PT). A M Samy acknowledges the support of the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. F Sha was supported by the Shenzhen Social Science Fund (SZ2020C015) and the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program (KQTD20190929172835662). A Sheikh is supported by Health Data Research UK. N Taveira acknowledges partial funding by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal, and Aga Khan Development Network—Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese-speaking countries in Africa (332821690), and by the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (RIA2016MC-1615). C S Wiysonge is supported by the South African Medical Research Council. Y Zhang was supported by the Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (Q20201104) and Open Fund Project of Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control (OHIC2020Y01).
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- 2021
9. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
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Kinyoki D, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Pickering B, Schaeffer L, Marczak L, Lazzar-Atwood A, Collison M, Henry N, Abebe Z, Adamu A, Adekanmbi V, Ahmadi K, Ajumobi O, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi R, Alahdab F, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Altirkawi K, Amini S, Andrei C, Antonio C, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Atique S, Ausloos M, Avila M, Awasthi A, Quintanilla B, Azari S, Badawi A, Barnighausen T, Bassat Q, Baye K, Bedi N, Bekele B, Bell M, Bhattacharjee N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta Z, Biadgo B, Bikbov B, Briko A, Britton G, Burstein R, Butt Z, Car J, Castaneda-Orjuela C, Castro F, Cerin E, Chipeta M, Chu D, Cork M, Cromwell E, Cuevas-Nasu L, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daoud F, Das Gupta R, Weaver N, De Leo D, De Neve J, Deribe K, Desalegn B, Deshpande A, Desta M, Diaz D, Dinberu M, Doku D, Dubey M, Duraes A, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Effiong A, Zaki M, El Tantawi M, El-Khatib Z, Eshrati B, Fareed M, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad S, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt N, Folayan M, Fukumoto T, Gebrehiwot T, Gezae K, Ghajar A, Gill P, Gona P, Gopalani S, Grada A, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall J, Hamidi S, Henok A, Prado B, Herrero M, Herteliu C, Hoang C, Hole M, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hu G, Islam S, Jakovljevic M, Jha R, Jonas J, Jozwiak J, Kahsay A, Kanchan T, Karami M, Kasaeian A, Khader Y, Khan E, Khater M, Kim Y, Kimokoti R, Kisa A, Kochhar S, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Defo B, Kumar G, Kumar M, Lad S, Lami F, Lee P, Levine A, Li S, Linn S, Lodha R, Abd El Razek H, Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta D, Mamun A, Mansournia M, Martins-Melo F, Masaka A, Massenburg B, Mayala B, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mensah G, Miazgowski T, Miller T, Mini G, Mirrakhimov E, Moazen B, Darwesh A, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad A, Moodley Y, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morrison S, Mosser J, Mousavi S, Mueller U, Murray C, Mustafa G, Naderi M, Naghavi M, Najafi F, Nangia V, Ndwandwe D, Negoi I, Ngunjiri J, Nguyen H, Nguyen L, Nguyen S, Nie J, Nnaji C, Noubiap J, Shiadeh M, Nyasulu P, Ogbo F, Olagunju A, Olusanya B, Olusanya J, Ortiz-Panozo E, Otstavnov S, Mahesh P, Pana A, Pandey A, Pati S, Patil S, Patton G, Perico N, Pigott D, Pirsaheb M, Piwoz E, Postma M, Pourshams A, Prakash S, Quintana H, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rai R, Rajati F, Rawaf D, Rawaf S, Rawat R, Remuzzi G, Renzaho A, Rios-Gonzalez C, Roever L, Ross J, Rostami A, Sadat N, Safari Y, Safdarian M, Sahebkar A, Salam N, Salamati P, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Samy A, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Schipp M, Schwebel D, Senbeta A, Sepanlou S, Shaikh M, Levy T, Shamsi M, Sharafi K, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shil A, Silva D, Singh J, Sinha D, Soofi M, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan M, Tabares-Seisdedos R, Tadesse B, Temsah M, Terkawi A, Tessema Z, Thorne-Lyman A, Tovani-Palone M, Tran B, Tran K, Ullah I, Uthman O, Vaezghasemi M, Vaezi A, Valdez P, Vanderheide J, Veisani Y, Violante F, Vlassov V, Vu G, Vu L, Waheed Y, Walson J, Wang Y, Wangia E, Werdecker A, Xu G, Yamada T, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Younis M, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Bin Zaman S, Zamani M, Zhang Y, Kassebaum N, Hay S, Local Burden Dis Child Growth Fail, Public Health, Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Kinyoki, Damaris K, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron E, Pickering, Brandon V, Schaeffer, Lauren E, Yisma, Engida, Hay, Simon I, Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure Collaborators, Kinyoki D.K., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Pickering B.V., Schaeffer L.E., Marczak L.B., Lazzar-Atwood A., Collison M.L., Henry N.J., Abebe Z., Adamu A.A., Adekanmbi V., Ahmadi K., Ajumobi O., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amini S., Andrei C.L., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Avila M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Barnighausen T.W., Bassat Q., Baye K., Bedi N., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bikbov B., Briko A.N., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chipeta M.G., Chu D.-T., Cork M.A., Cromwell E.A., Cuevas-Nasu L., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Gupta R.D., Weaver N.D., Leo D.D., Neve J.-W.D., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Doku D.T., Dubey M., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Fareed M., Faro A., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fukumoto T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Gill P.S., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall J.B., Hamidi S., Henok A., Prado B.H., Herrero M., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Islam S.M.S., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kahsay A., Kanchan T., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Linn S., Lodha R., El Razek H.M.A., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Moodley Y., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nie J., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz-Panozo E., Otstavnov S.S., P. A M., Pana A., Pandey A., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Piwoz E.G., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Quintana H., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawat R., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ross J.M., Rostami A., Sadat N., Safari Y., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Levy T.S., Shamsi M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shil A., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Soofi M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaezghasemi M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Vanderheide J., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vu G.T., Vu L.G., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wangia E.N., Werdecker A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zhang Y., Kassebaum N.J., and Hay S.I.
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Time Factors ,Developmental Disabilities ,Psychological intervention ,Distribution (economics) ,0302 clinical medicine ,risk factors ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Signs and symptoms ,Wasting ,Children ,Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure Collaborators ,2. Zero hunger ,Multidisciplinary ,Under-five ,1. No poverty ,Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology ,A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry ,3. Good health ,Multidisciplinary Sciences ,Geography ,Child, Preschool ,Science & Technology - Other Topics ,HEALTH ,Underweight ,medicine.symptom ,social sciences ,Infants ,AFRICA ,medicine.medical_specialty ,General Science & Technology ,RJ ,Developing country ,Nutritional Status ,World Health Organization ,Child Nutrition Disorders ,Article ,Social sciences ,Malnutrició ,03 medical and health sciences ,AGE ,Environmental health ,medicine ,Mortalitat ,Humans ,Mortality ,Developing Countries ,Science & Technology ,business.industry ,Public health ,MORTALITY ,Body Weight ,Malnutrition ,Infant, Newborn ,Infant ,Child growth failure ,medicine.disease ,signs and symptoms ,Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi ,Risk factors ,WEIGHT ,business ,RA ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery - Abstract
Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications., High-resolution subnational mapping of child growth failure indicators for 105 low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 shows that, despite considerable progress, substantial geographical inequalities still exist in some countries.
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- 2020
10. Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
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Cork, MA, Henry, NJ, Watson, S, Croneberger, AJ, Baumann, M, Letourneau, ID, Yang, M, Serfes, AL, Abbas, J, Abbasi, N, Abbastabar, H, Abreu, LG, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Achappa, B, Adabi, M, Adal, TG, Adegbosin, AE, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahinkorah, BO, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Alhassan, RK, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, T, Anvari, D, Aqeel, M, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asaad, M, Atnafu, DD, Atreya, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Darshan, BB, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Bante, SA, Barboza, MA, Basu, S, Bedi, N, Bejarano Ramirez, DF, Bensenor, IM, Beyene, FY, Bezabih, YM, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, N, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birlik, SM, Bitew, ZW, Bohlouli, S, Boloor, A, Brunoni, AR, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chowdhury, MAK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daoud, F, Davila Cervantes, CA, Weaver, ND, De la Hoz, FP, Demeke, FM, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, Elayedath, R, El-Jaafary, SI, Faraon, EJA, Faro, A, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gebremariam, TBB, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gesesew, HA, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Gilani, SA, Golechha, M, Gori, U, Goulart, AC, Goulart, BNG, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Guimaraes, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haeuser, E, Haider, MR, Haile, TG, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hanif, A, Hargono, A, Hariyani, N, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, R, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hwang, BF, Ibeneme, CU, Ibitoye, SE, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Ilic, IM, Iqbal, U, Jahagirdar, D, Jain, V, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Johnson, KB, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kanchan, T, Matin, BK, Karch, A, Karimi, SE, Kassahun, G, Kayode, GA, Karyani, AK, Keramati, M, Khalid, N, Khan, EA, Khan, G, Khan, MNN, Khatab, K, Kianipour, N, Kim, YJ, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, SLK, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kuchenbecker, RS, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, N, Kumar, M, Kurmi, OP, Kusuma, D, La Vecchia, C, Lal, DK, Landires, I, Lasrado, S, Lee, PH, LeGrand, KE, Li, B, Li, S, Liu, X, Amin, HIM, Machado, DB, Madi, D, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Malta, DC, Mansournia, MA, Manzar, MD, Marrugo Arnedo, CA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masoumi, SZ, Mayala, BK, Medina-Solis, CE, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mestrovic, T, Mirica, A, Moazen, B, Mohammad, Y, Mezerji, NMG, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, AH, Moni, MA, Moradi, M, Moradi, Y, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Khaneghah, AM, Mustafa, G, Mwanri, L, Nagaraja, R, Nagarajan, AJ, Naimzada, MD, Nascimento, BR, Naveed, M, Nayak, VC, Nazari, J, Negash, H, Negoi, I, Nepal, S, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, HLT, Nikbakhsh, R, Noubiap, JJ, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Otstavnov, N, Mahesh, PA, Padubidri, JR, Perumal, SRP, Pardo-Montano, AM, Patel, UK, Pawar, S, Peprah, EK, Pereira, A, Perkins, S, Pescarini, JM, Pokhrel, KN, Postma, MJ, Pottoo, FH, Prada, SI, Preotescu, L, Pribadi, DRA, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, MHU, Rahmani, AM, Ramezanzadeh, K, Rana, J, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawassizadeh, R, Renjith, V, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Roever, L, Rubagotti, E, Rumisha, SF, Rwegerera, GM, Sagar, R, Sajadi, SM, Salem, MR, Samy, AM, Sarmiento-Suarez, R, Sathian, B, Schaeffer, LE, Schneider, IJC, Seidu, A-A, Sha, F, Shaikh, MA, Sharafi, K, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shin, JI, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Sligar, A, Soheili, A, Steuben, KM, Sufiyan, MB, Tadesse, EG, Tesema, AKT, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Thompson, RL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, FS, 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Boloor, A, Brunoni, AR, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Charan, J, Chatterjee, S, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chowdhury, MAK, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daoud, F, Davila Cervantes, CA, Weaver, ND, De la Hoz, FP, Demeke, FM, Denova-Gutierrez, E, Deribe, K, Deuba, K, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Diaz, D, Djalalinia, S, Duraes, AR, Eagan, AW, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, Elayedath, R, El-Jaafary, SI, Faraon, EJA, Faro, A, Fattahi, N, Fauk, NK, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Fukumoto, T, Gad, MM, Gebremariam, TBB, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, GG, Gesesew, HA, Ghadiri, K, Ghashghaee, A, Gilani, SA, Golechha, M, Gori, U, Goulart, AC, Goulart, BNG, Gugnani, HC, Guimaraes, MDC, Guimaraes, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Haeuser, E, Haider, MR, Haile, TG, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hanif, A, Hargono, A, Hariyani, N, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, Ho, HC, Holla, 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Singh, JA, Skryabin, VY, Skryabina, AA, Sligar, A, Soheili, A, Steuben, KM, Sufiyan, MB, Tadesse, EG, Tesema, AKT, Tesfay, FH, Thapar, R, Thompson, RL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tsegaye, GW, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Vasseghian, Y, Violante, FS, Vo, B, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Welay, FT, Westerman, R, Wickramasinghe, ND, Yaya, S, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yu, C, Yuce, D, Yusefzadeh, H, Zamanian, M, Zastrozhin, MS, Zhang, Z-J, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Hay, SI, and Dwyer-Lindgren, L
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. RESULTS: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and divergi
- Published
- 2021
11. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study
- Author
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Sartorius, B, Van der Heide, J, Yang, M, Goosmann, E, Hon, J, Haeuser, E, Cork, M, Perkins, S, Jahagirdar, D, Schaeffer, L, Serfes, A, LeGrand, K, Abbastabar, H, Abebo, Z, Abosetugn, A, Abu-Gharbieh, E, Accrombessi, M, Adebayo, O, Adegbosin, A, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, O, Adeyinka, D, Ahinkorah, B, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, M, Akalu, Y, Akinyemi, O, Akinyemi, R, Aklilu, A, Akunna, C, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, N, Alamneh, A, Alanzi, T, Alemu, B, Alhassan, R, Ali, T, Alipour, V, Amini, S, Ancuceanu, R, Ansari, F, Anteneh, Z, Anvari, D, Anwer, R, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Asemahagn, M, Jafarabadi, M, Asmare, W, Atnafu, D, Atout, M, Atreya, A, Ausloos, M, Awedew, A, Quintanilla, B, Ayanore, M, Aynalem, Y, Ayza, M, Azari, S, Azene, Z, Babar, Z-U-D, Baig, A, Balakrishnan, S, Banach, M, Barnighausen, T, Basu, S, Bayati, M, Bedi, N, Bekuma, T, Bezabhe, W, Bhagavathula, A, Bhardwaj, P, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, Z, Bibi, S, Bikbov, B, Birhan, T, Bitew, Z, Bockarie, M, Boloor, A, Brady, O, Bragazzi, N, 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M, Gugnani, H, Guido, D, Guled, R, Hall, B, Hamidi, S, Handiso, D, Hargono, A, Hashi, A, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hayat, K, Herteliu, C, de Hidru, H, Holla, R, Hosgood, H, Hossain, N, Hosseini, M, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Hwang, B-F, Ibitoye, S, Ilesanmi, O, Ilic, I, Ilic, M, Irvani, S, Iwu, C, Iyamu, I, Jain, V, Jakovljevic, M, Jalilian, F, Jha, R, Johnson, K, Joshua, V, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, J, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, L, Kalhor, R, Kamath, A, Kamyari, N, Kanchan, T, Matin, B, Karch, A, Karimi, S, Kasa, A, Kassahun, G, Kayode, G, Karyani, A, Keiyoro, P, Kelkay, B, Khalid, N, Khan, G, Khan, J, Khan, M, Khatab, K, Khazaei, S, Kim, Y, Kisa, A, Kisa, S, Kochhar, S, Kopec, J, Kosen, S, Laxminarayana, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, B, Kugbey, N, Kulkarni, V, Kumar, M, Kumar, N, Kurmi, O, Kusuma, D, Kuupiel, D, Kyu, H, La Vecchia, C, Lal, D, Lam, J, Landires, I, Lasrado, S, Lazarus, J, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Lee, P, Leshargie, C, Li, B, Liu, X, Lopukhov, P, Amin, H, Madi, D, Mahasha, P, Majeed, A, Maleki, A, Maleki, S, Mamun, A, Manafi, N, Mansournia, M, Martins-Melo, F, Masoumi, S, Mayala, B, Meharie, B, Meheretu, H, Meles, H, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mengesha, E, Meretoja, T, Mersha, A, Mestrovic, T, Miller, T, Mirica, A, Alavijeh, M, Mohamad, O, Mohammad, Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammed, J, Mohammed, S, Mokdad, A, Mokonnon, T, Molokhia, M, Moradi, M, Moradi, Y, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosser, J, Munro, S, Mustafa, G, Muthupandian, S, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, A, Naghavi, M, Naveed, M, Nayak, V, Nazari, J, Ndejjo, R, Nepal, S, Netsere, H, Ngalesoni, F, Nguefack-Tsague, G, Ngunjiri, J, Nigatu, Y, Nigussie, S, Nnaji, C, Noubiap, J, Nunez-Samudio, V, Oancea, B, Odukoya, O, Ogbo, F, Oladimeji, O, Olagunju, A, Olusanya, B, Olusanya, J, Omer, M, Omonisi, A, Onwujekwe, O, Orisakwe, O, Otstavnov, N, Owolabi, M, Mahesh, P, Padubidri, J, Pakhale, S, Pana, A, Pandi-Perumal, S, Patel, U, Pathak, M, Patton, G, Pawar, S, Peprah, E, Pokhrel, K, Postma, M, Pottoo, F, Pourjafar, H, Pribadi, D, Syed, Z, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahman, M, Rahmani, A, Ram, P, Rana, J, Ranabhat, C, Rao, S, Rathi, P, Rawaf, D, Rawaf, S, Rawassizadeh, R, Renjith, V, Reta, M, Rezaei, N, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, A, Ross, J, Rumisha, S, Sagar, R, Sahu, M, Sajadi, S, Salem, M, Samy, A, Sathian, B, Schutte, A, Seidu, A-A, Sha, F, Shafaat, O, Shahbaz, M, Shaikh, M, Shaka, M, Sheikh, A, Shibuya, K, Shin, J, Shivakumar, K, Sidemo, N, Singh, J, Skryabin, V, Skryabina, A, Soheili, A, Soltani, S, Somefun, O, Sorrie, M, Spurlock, E, Sufiyan, M, Taddele, B, Tadesse, E, Tamir, Z, Tamiru, A, Tanser, F, Taveira, N, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekalegn, Y, Tesfay, F, Tessema, B, Tessema, Z, Thakur, B, Tolani, M, Topor-Madry, R, Torrado, M, Tovani-Palone, M, Traini, E, Tsai, A, Tsegaye, G, Ullah, I, Ullah, S, Umeokonkwo, C, Unnikrishnan, B, Vardavas, C, Violante, F, Vo, B, Wado, Y, Waheed, Y, Wamai, R, Wang, Y, Ward, P, Werdecker, A, Wickramasinghe, N, Wijeratne, T, Wiysonge, C, Wondmeneh, T, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yeshaw, Y, Yeshitila, Y, Yilma, M, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yosef, T, Yusefzadeh, H, Zaidi, S, Zaki, L, Zamanian, M, Zastrozhin, M, Zastrozhina, A, Zewdie, D, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Ziapour, A, Hay, S, and Dwyer-Lindgren, L
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. FINDINGS: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique
- Published
- 2021
12. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries.
- Author
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Faro A., Renzaho A.M.N., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ross J.M., Rostami A., Sadat N., Safari Y., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Levy T.S., Shamsi M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shil A., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Soofi M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaezghasemi M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Vanderheide J., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vu G.T., Vu L.G., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wangia E.N., Werdecker A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zhang Y., Kassebaum N.J., Hay S.I., Hamidi S., Kinyoki D.K., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Pickering B.V., Schaeffer L.E., Marczak L.B., Lazzar-Atwood A., Collison M.L., Henry N.J., Abebe Z., Adamu A.A., Adekanmbi V., Ahmadi K., Ajumobi O., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amini S., Andrei C.L., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Avila M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Barnighausen T.W., Bassat Q., Baye K., Bedi N., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bikbov B., Briko A.N., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chipeta M.G., Chu D.-T., Cork M.A., Cromwell E.A., Cuevas-Nasu L., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Gupta R.D., Weaver N.D., Leo D.D., Neve J.-W.D., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Doku D.T., Dubey M., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Fareed M., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fukumoto T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Gill P.S., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall J.B., Henok A., Prado B.H., Herrero M., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Islam S.M.S., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kahsay A., Kanchan T., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Linn S., Lodha R., El Razek H.M.A., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Moodley Y., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nie J., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz-Panozo E., Otstavnov S.S., P. A M., Pana A., Pandey A., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Piwoz E.G., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Quintana H., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawat R., Remuzzi G., Faro A., Renzaho A.M.N., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ross J.M., Rostami A., Sadat N., Safari Y., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Levy T.S., Shamsi M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shil A., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Soofi M., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thorne-Lyman A.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Vaezghasemi M., Vaezi A., Valdez P.R., Vanderheide J., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vu G.T., Vu L.G., Waheed Y., Walson J.L., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Wangia E.N., Werdecker A., Xu G., Yamada T., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Zaman S.B., Zamani M., Zhang Y., Kassebaum N.J., Hay S.I., Hamidi S., Kinyoki D.K., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Pickering B.V., Schaeffer L.E., Marczak L.B., Lazzar-Atwood A., Collison M.L., Henry N.J., Abebe Z., Adamu A.A., Adekanmbi V., Ahmadi K., Ajumobi O., Al-Eyadhy A., Al-Raddadi R.M., Alahdab F., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amini S., Andrei C.L., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Avila M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Barnighausen T.W., Bassat Q., Baye K., Bedi N., Bekele B.B., Bell M.L., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Biadgo B., Bikbov B., Briko A.N., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chipeta M.G., Chu D.-T., Cork M.A., Cromwell E.A., Cuevas-Nasu L., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Gupta R.D., Weaver N.D., Leo D.D., Neve J.-W.D., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Doku D.T., Dubey M., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Fareed M., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Folayan M.O., Fukumoto T., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gezae K.E., Ghajar A., Gill P.S., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall J.B., Henok A., Prado B.H., Herrero M., Herteliu C., Hoang C.L., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Islam S.M.S., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Jonas J.B., Jozwiak J.J., Kahsay A., Kanchan T., Karami M., Kasaeian A., Khader Y.S., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kisa A., Kochhar S., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Linn S., Lodha R., El Razek H.M.A., Abd El Razek M.M., Majdan M., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mejia-Rodriguez F., Melku M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Miazgowski T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Moodley Y., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Naderi M., Naghavi M., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen H.L.T., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nie J., Nnaji C.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Ortiz-Panozo E., Otstavnov S.S., P. A M., Pana A., Pandey A., Pati S., Patil S.T., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Piwoz E.G., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Quintana H., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rai R.K., Rajati F., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Rawat R., and Remuzzi G.
- Abstract
Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e
- Published
- 2020
13. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
- Author
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Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, Hay, SI, Kinyoki, DK, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Pickering, BV, Schaeffer, LE, Marczak, LB, Lazzar-Atwood, A, Collison, ML, Henry, NJ, Abebe, Z, Adamu, AA, Adekanmbi, V, Ahmadi, K, Ajumobi, O, Al-Eyadhy, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alahdab, F, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amini, S, Andrei, CL, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Avila, M, Awasthi, A, Quintanilla, BPA, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Barnighausen, TW, Bassat, Q, Baye, K, Bedi, N, Bekele, BB, Bell, ML, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Biadgo, B, Bikbov, B, Briko, AN, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Car, J, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chipeta, MG, Chu, D-T, Cork, MA, Cromwell, EA, Cuevas-Nasu, L, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Leo, D, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Doku, DT, Dubey, M, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Effiong, A, Zaki, MES, El Tantawi, M, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Folayan, MO, Fukumoto, T, Gebrehiwot, TT, Gezae, KE, Ghajar, A, Gill, PS, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hall, JB, Hamidi, S, Henok, A, Prado, BH, Herrero, M, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Islam, SMS, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Jonas, JB, Jozwiak, JJ, Kahsay, A, Kanchan, T, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Khader, YS, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kisa, A, Kochhar, S, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, GA, Kumar, M, Lad, SD, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Linn, S, Lodha, R, Abd El Razek, HM, Abd El Razek, MM, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Malta, DC, Mamun, AA, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melku, M, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Moodley, Y, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Mueller, UO, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Naghavi, M, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, LH, Nguyen, SH, Nie, J, Nnaji, CA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Otstavnov, SS, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pati, S, Patil, ST, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Piwoz, EG, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Quintana, H, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rai, RK, Rajati, F, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Rawat, R, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ross, JM, Rostami, A, Sadat, N, Safari, Y, Safdarian, M, Sahebkar, A, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Levy, TS, Shamsi, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, Sheikh, A, Shil, A, Silva, DAS, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Soofi, M, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, ZT, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Tran, KB, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Vaezghasemi, M, Vaezi, A, Valdez, PR, Vanderheide, J, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vu, GT, Vu, LG, Waheed, Y, Walson, JL, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wangia, EN, Werdecker, A, Xu, G, Yamada, T, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zamani, M, Zhang, Y, Kassebaum, NJ, and Hay, SI
- Abstract
Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0-59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3-5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization's median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e
- Published
- 2020
14. Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
- Author
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Graetz, N, Woyczynski, L, Wilson, KF, Hall, JB, Abate, KH, Abd-Allah, F, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Afshari, M, Ajumobi, O, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amiresmaili, M, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Aryal, KK, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnett, A, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Collison, ML, Cooper, C, Cork, MA, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Djalalinia, S, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Kalan, ME, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Garcia, JA, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hasan, M, Hassen, HY, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, NJ, Hernandez Prado, B, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Izadi, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Kanchan, T, Kasaeian, A, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kiadaliri, AA, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Liao, Y, Lim, L-L, Listl, S, Lopez, JCF, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mehta, KM, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammad, DK, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Nahvijou, A, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Long, HN, Ningrum, DNA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DDV, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Overland, S, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pati, S, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Puri, P, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MHU, Rajati, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rezaei, S, Rezapour, A, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Safari, Y, Sagar, R, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Sawant, AR, Schaeffer, LE, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Siabani, S, Silveira, DGA, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Skirbekk, V, Sligar, A, Sobaih, BH, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Sutradhar, I, Sylaja, P, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, B, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wilkinson, JC, Winkler, AS, Wolfe, CDA, Yamada, T, Yeshaneh, A, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Gakidou, E, Hay, SI, Graetz, N, Woyczynski, L, Wilson, KF, Hall, JB, Abate, KH, Abd-Allah, F, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Afshari, M, Ajumobi, O, Akinyemiju, T, Alahdab, F, Al-Aly, Z, Alcalde Rabanal, JE, Alijanzadeh, M, Alipour, V, Altirkawi, K, Amiresmaili, M, Anber, NH, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Antonio, CAT, Arabloo, J, Aremu, O, Aryal, KK, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Atique, S, Ausloos, M, Awasthi, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Azari, S, Badawi, A, Banoub, JAM, Barker-Collo, SL, Barnett, A, Bedi, N, Bennett, DA, Bhattacharjee, NV, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bikbov, B, Britton, G, Burstein, R, Butt, ZA, Cardenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Castro, F, Cerin, E, Chang, J-C, Collison, ML, Cooper, C, Cork, MA, Daoud, F, Das Gupta, R, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Deribe, K, Desalegn, BB, Deshpande, A, Desta, M, Dhimal, M, Diaz, D, Dinberu, MT, Djalalinia, S, Dubey, M, Dubljanin, E, Duraes, AR, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Earl, L, Kalan, ME, El-Khatib, Z, Eshrati, B, Faramarzi, M, Fareed, M, Faro, A, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Filip, I, Fischer, F, Fukumoto, T, Garcia, JA, Gill, PS, Gill, TK, Gona, PN, Gopalani, SV, Grada, A, Guo, Y, Gupta, R, Gupta, V, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Hasan, M, Hassen, HY, Hendrie, D, Henok, A, Henry, NJ, Hernandez Prado, B, Herteliu, C, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hu, G, Ilesanmi, OS, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Izadi, N, Jakovljevic, M, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jonas, JB, Shushtari, ZJ, Jozwiak, JJ, Kanchan, T, Kasaeian, A, Karyani, AK, Keiyoro, PN, Kesavachandran, CN, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khan, EA, Khater, MM, Kiadaliri, AA, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, YJ, Kimokoti, RW, Kinyoki, DK, Kisa, A, Kosen, S, Koyanagi, A, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Kumar, M, Kumar, P, Lami, FH, Lee, PH, Levine, AJ, Li, S, Liao, Y, Lim, L-L, Listl, S, Lopez, JCF, Majdan, M, Majdzadeh, R, Majeed, A, Malekzadeh, R, Mansournia, MA, Martins-Melo, FR, Masaka, A, Massenburg, BB, Mayala, BK, Mehta, KM, Mendoza, W, Mensah, GA, Meretoja, TJ, Mestrovic, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirrakhimov, EM, Moazen, B, Mohammad, DK, Darwesh, AM, Mohammed, S, Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moodley, Y, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moraga, P, Morawska, L, Morrison, SD, Mosser, JF, Mousavi, SM, Murray, CJL, Mustafa, G, Nahvijou, A, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Negoi, RI, Ngunjiri, JW, Cuong, TN, Long, HN, Ningrum, DNA, Noubiap, JJ, Shiadeh, MN, Nyasulu, PS, Ogbo, FA, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, BO, Olusanya, JO, Onwujekwe, OE, Ortega-Altamirano, DDV, Ortiz-Panozo, E, Overland, S, Mahesh, PA, Pana, A, Panda-Jonas, S, Pati, S, Patton, GC, Perico, N, Pigott, DM, Pirsaheb, M, Postma, MJ, Pourshams, A, Prakash, S, Puri, P, Qorbani, M, Radfar, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, MHU, Rajati, F, Ranabhat, CL, Rawaf, DL, Rawaf, S, Reiner, RC, Remuzzi, G, Renzaho, AMN, Rezaei, S, Rezapour, A, Rios-Gonzalez, C, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Rostami, A, Rubagotti, E, Sadat, N, Sadeghi, E, Safari, Y, Sagar, R, Salam, N, Salamati, P, Salimi, Y, Salimzadeh, H, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Milicevic, MMS, Sartorius, B, Sathian, B, Sawant, AR, Schaeffer, LE, Schipp, MF, Schwebel, DC, Senbeta, AM, Sepanlou, SG, Shaikh, MA, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharma, R, She, J, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Siabani, S, Silveira, DGA, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Skirbekk, V, Sligar, A, Sobaih, BH, Soofi, M, Soriano, JB, Soyiri, IN, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Sutradhar, I, Sylaja, P, Tabares-Seisdedos, R, Tadesse, BT, Temsah, M-H, Terkawi, AS, Tessema, B, Tessema, ZT, Thankappan, KR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Vollmer, S, Vu, GT, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wilkinson, JC, Winkler, AS, Wolfe, CDA, Yamada, T, Yeshaneh, A, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefifard, M, Yu, C, Bin Zaman, S, Zhang, J, Zhang, Y, Zodpey, S, Gakidou, E, and Hay, SI
- Abstract
Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1-3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4-6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9-11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but-to our knowledge-no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12-14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
- Published
- 2020
15. Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
- Author
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Kinyoki, D. K., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Pickering, B. V., Schaeffer, L. E., Marczak, L. B., Lazzar-Atwood, A., Collison, M. L., Henry, N. J., Abebe, Z., Adamu, A. A., Adekanmbi, V., Ahmadi, K., Ajumobi, O., Al-Eyadhy, A., Al-Raddadi, R. M., Alahdab, F., Alijanzadeh, M., Alipour, V., Altirkawi, K., Amini, S., Andrei, C. L., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Atique, S., Ausloos, M., Avila, M., Awasthi, A., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Azari, S., Badawi, A., Bärnighausen, T. W., Bassat, Q., Baye, K., Bedi, N., Bekele, B. B., Bell, M. L., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Biadgo, B., Bikbov, B., Briko, A. N., Britton, G., Burstein, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Castro, F., Cerin, E., Chipeta, M. G., Chu, D. -T, Cork, M. A., Cromwell, E. A., Cuevas-Nasu, L., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Gupta, R. D., Weaver, N. D., Leo, D. D., Neve, J. -WD., Deribe, K., Desalegn, B. B., Deshpande, A., Desta, M., Diaz, D., Dinberu, M. T., Doku, D. T., Dubey, M., Durães, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Effiong, A., Zaki, M. E. S., Tantawi, M. E., El-Khatib, Z., Eshrati, B., Fareed, M., Faro, A., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Folayan, M. O., Fukumoto, T., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gezae, K. E., Ghajar, A., Gill, P. S., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Grada, A., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, J. B., Hamidi, S., Henok, A., Prado, B. H., Herrero, M., Herteliu, C., Hoang, C. L., Hole, M. K., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hu, G., Islam, S. M. S., Jakovljevic, M., Jha, R. P., Jonas, J. B., Jozwiak, J. J., Kahsay, A., Kanchan, T., Karami, M., Kasaeian, A., Khader, Y. S., Khan, E. A., Khater, M. M., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kisa, A., Kochhar, S., Kosen, S., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Defo, B. K., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Lee, P. H., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Linn, S., Lodha, R., El Razek, H. M. A., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majdan, M., Majeed, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Mansournia, M. A., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Mayala, B. K., Mejia-Rodriguez, F., Melku, M., Mendoza, W., Mensah, G. A., Miazgowski, T., Miller, T. R., Mini, G. K., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Moazen, B., Darwesh, A. M., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A. H., Moodley, Y., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moraga, P., Morrison, S. D., Mosser, J. F., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Murray, C. J. L., Mustafa, G., Naderi, M., Naghavi, M., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Negoi, I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Nguyen, H. L. T., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nie, J., Nnaji, C. A., Noubiap, J. J., Shiadeh, M. N., Nyasulu, P. S., Ogbo, F. A., Olagunju, A. T., Olusanya, B. O., Olusanya, J. O., Ortiz-Panozo, E., Otstavnov, S. S., P. A, M., Pana, A., Pandey, A., Pati, S., Patil, S. T., Patton, G. C., Perico, N., Pigott, D. M., Pirsaheb, M., Piwoz, E. G., Postma, M. J., Pourshams, A., Prakash, S., Quintana, H., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rai, R. K., Rajati, F., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Rawat, R., Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rios-González, C., Roever, L., Ross, J. M., Rostami, A., Sadat, N., Safari, Y., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Samy, A. M., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Schipp, M. F., Schwebel, D. C., Senbeta, A. M., Sepanlou, S. G., Shaikh, M. A., Levy, T. S., Shamsi, M., Sharafi, K., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shil, A., Silva, D. A. S., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Soofi, M., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tadesse, B. T., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thorne-Lyman, A. L., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Uthman, O. A., Vaezghasemi, M., Vaezi, A., Valdez, P. R., Vanderheide, J., Veisani, Y., Violante, F. S., Vlassov, V., Vu, G. T., Vu, L. G., Waheed, Y., Walson, J. L., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Wangia, E. N., Werdecker, A., Xu, G., Yamada, T., Yisma, E., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yu, C., Zaman, S. B., Zamani, M., Zhang, Y., Kassebaum, N. J., Hay, S. I., Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure, Kinyoki, D. K., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Pickering, B. V., Schaeffer, L. E., Marczak, L. B., Lazzar-Atwood, A., Collison, M. L., Henry, N. J., Abebe, Z., Adamu, A. A., Adekanmbi, V., Ahmadi, K., Ajumobi, O., Al-Eyadhy, A., Al-Raddadi, R. M., Alahdab, F., Alijanzadeh, M., Alipour, V., Altirkawi, K., Amini, S., Andrei, C. L., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Atique, S., Ausloos, M., Avila, M., Awasthi, A., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Azari, S., Badawi, A., Bärnighausen, T. W., Bassat, Q., Baye, K., Bedi, N., Bekele, B. B., Bell, M. L., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Biadgo, B., Bikbov, B., Briko, A. N., Britton, G., Burstein, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Castro, F., Cerin, E., Chipeta, M. G., Chu, D. -T, Cork, M. A., Cromwell, E. A., Cuevas-Nasu, L., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Gupta, R. D., Weaver, N. D., Leo, D. D., Neve, J. -WD., Deribe, K., Desalegn, B. B., Deshpande, A., Desta, M., Diaz, D., Dinberu, M. T., Doku, D. T., Dubey, M., Durães, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Effiong, A., Zaki, M. E. S., Tantawi, M. E., El-Khatib, Z., Eshrati, B., Fareed, M., Faro, A., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Folayan, M. O., Fukumoto, T., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gezae, K. E., Ghajar, A., Gill, P. S., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Grada, A., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, J. B., Hamidi, S., Henok, A., Prado, B. H., Herrero, M., Herteliu, C., Hoang, C. L., Hole, M. K., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hu, G., Islam, S. M. S., Jakovljevic, M., Jha, R. P., Jonas, J. B., Jozwiak, J. J., Kahsay, A., Kanchan, T., Karami, M., Kasaeian, A., Khader, Y. S., Khan, E. A., Khater, M. M., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kisa, A., Kochhar, S., Kosen, S., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Defo, B. K., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Lee, P. H., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Linn, S., Lodha, R., El Razek, H. M. A., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majdan, M., Majeed, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Mansournia, M. A., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Mayala, B. K., Mejia-Rodriguez, F., Melku, M., Mendoza, W., Mensah, G. A., Miazgowski, T., Miller, T. R., Mini, G. K., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Moazen, B., Darwesh, A. M., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A. H., Moodley, Y., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moraga, P., Morrison, S. D., Mosser, J. F., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Murray, C. J. L., Mustafa, G., Naderi, M., Naghavi, M., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Negoi, I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Nguyen, H. L. T., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nie, J., Nnaji, C. A., Noubiap, J. J., Shiadeh, M. N., Nyasulu, P. S., Ogbo, F. A., Olagunju, A. T., Olusanya, B. O., Olusanya, J. O., Ortiz-Panozo, E., Otstavnov, S. S., P. A, M., Pana, A., Pandey, A., Pati, S., Patil, S. T., Patton, G. C., Perico, N., Pigott, D. M., Pirsaheb, M., Piwoz, E. G., Postma, M. J., Pourshams, A., Prakash, S., Quintana, H., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rai, R. K., Rajati, F., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Rawat, R., Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rios-González, C., Roever, L., Ross, J. M., Rostami, A., Sadat, N., Safari, Y., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Samy, A. M., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Schipp, M. F., Schwebel, D. C., Senbeta, A. M., Sepanlou, S. G., Shaikh, M. A., Levy, T. S., Shamsi, M., Sharafi, K., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shil, A., Silva, D. A. S., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Soofi, M., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tadesse, B. T., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thorne-Lyman, A. L., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Uthman, O. A., Vaezghasemi, M., Vaezi, A., Valdez, P. R., Vanderheide, J., Veisani, Y., Violante, F. S., Vlassov, V., Vu, G. T., Vu, L. G., Waheed, Y., Walson, J. L., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Wangia, E. N., Werdecker, A., Xu, G., Yamada, T., Yisma, E., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yu, C., Zaman, S. B., Zamani, M., Zhang, Y., Kassebaum, N. J., Hay, S. I., and Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Child Growth Failure
- Abstract
Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas e
- Published
- 2020
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16. Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
- Author
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Graetz, N., Woyczynski, L., Wilson, K. F., Hall, J. B., Abate, K. H., Abd-Allah, F., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Afshari, M., Ajumobi, O., Akinyemiju, T., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Rabanal, J. E. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alipour, V., Altirkawi, K., Amiresmaili, M., Anber, N. H., Andrei, C. L., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Aryal, K. K., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Atique, S., Ausloos, M., Awasthi, A., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Azari, S., Badawi, A., Banoub, J. A. M., Barker-Collo, S. L., Barnett, A., Bedi, N., Bennett, D. A., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Britton, G., Burstein, R., Butt, Z. A., Cárdenas, R., Carvalho, F., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Castro, F., Cerin, E., Chang, J. -C, Collison, M. L., Cooper, C., Cork, M. A., Daoud, F., Das Gupta, R., Weaver, N. D., De Neve, J. -W, Deribe, K., Desalegn, B. B., Deshpande, A., Desta, M., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Dinberu, M. T., Djalalinia, S., Dubey, M., Dubljanin, E., Durães, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Kalan, M. E., El-Khatib, Z., Eshrati, B., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faro, A., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, E., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fukumoto, T., García, J. A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Grada, A., Guo, Y., Gupta, R., Gupta, V., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hamadeh, R. R., Hamidi, S., Hasan, M., Hassen, H. Y., Hendrie, D., Henok, A., Henry, N. J., Prado, B. H., Herteliu, C., Hole, M. K., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hu, G., Ilesanmi, O. S., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, S. M. S., Izadi, N., Jakovljevic, M., Jha, R. P., Ji, J. S., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kanchan, T., Kasaeian, A., Karyani, A. K., Keiyoro, P. N., Kesavachandran, C. N., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khater, M. M., Kiadaliri, A. A., Kiirithio, D. N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kosen, S., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Defo, B. K., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Lami, F. H., Lee, P. H., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Liao, Y., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Lopez, J. C. F., Majdan, M., Majdzadeh, R., Majeed, A., Malekzadeh, R., Mansournia, M. A., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Mayala, B. K., Mehta, K. M., Mendoza, W., Mensah, G. A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Mini, G. K., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Moazen, B., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A. H., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Morrison, S. D., Mosser, J. F., Mousavi, S. M., Murray, C. J. L., Mustafa, G., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Nguyen, C. T., Nguyen, L. H., Ningrum, D. N. A., Noubiap, J. J., Shiadeh, M. N., Nyasulu, P. S., Ogbo, F. A., Olagunju, A. T., Olusanya, B. O., Olusanya, J. O., Onwujekwe, O. E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz-Panozo, Eduardo, Øverland, S., P. A, M., Pana, A., Panda-Jonas, S., Pati, S., Patton, G. C., Perico, N., Pigott, D. M., Pirsaheb, M., Postma, M. J., Pourshams, A., Prakash, S., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Radfar, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M. H. U., Rajati, F., Ranabhat, C. L., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Reiner, R.C., Jr, Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Rios-González, C., Roever, L., Ronfani, L., Roshandel, G., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Safari, Y., Sagar, R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Samy, A. M., Sanabria, J., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Sawant, A. R., Schaeffer, L. E., Schipp, M. F., Schwebel, D. C., Senbeta, A. M., Sepanlou, S. G., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharma, R., She, J., Sheikh, A., Shigematsu, M., Siabani, S., Silveira, D. G. A., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Skirbekk, V., Sligar, A., Sobaih, B. H., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Soyiri, I. N., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Babale Sufiyan, M., Sutradhar, I., Sylaja, P., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tadesse, B. T., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, B., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Topor-Madry, R., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Car, L. T., Ullah, I., Uthman, O. A., Valdez, P. R., Veisani, Y., Violante, F. S., Vlassov, V., Vollmer, S., Thu Vu, G., Waheed, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Wilkinson, J. C., Winkler, A. S., Wolfe, C. D. A., Yamada, T., Yeshaneh, A., Yip, P., Yisma, E., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yu, C., Bin Zaman, S., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Zodpey, S., Gakidou, E., Hay, S. I., Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Educational Attainment, Graetz, N., Woyczynski, L., Wilson, K. F., Hall, J. B., Abate, K. H., Abd-Allah, F., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Afshari, M., Ajumobi, O., Akinyemiju, T., Alahdab, F., Al-Aly, Z., Rabanal, J. E. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alipour, V., Altirkawi, K., Amiresmaili, M., Anber, N. H., Andrei, C. L., Anjomshoa, M., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Aremu, O., Aryal, K. K., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Atique, S., Ausloos, M., Awasthi, A., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Azari, S., Badawi, A., Banoub, J. A. M., Barker-Collo, S. L., Barnett, A., Bedi, N., Bennett, D. A., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattacharyya, K., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bikbov, B., Britton, G., Burstein, R., Butt, Z. A., Cárdenas, R., Carvalho, F., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Castro, F., Cerin, E., Chang, J. -C, Collison, M. L., Cooper, C., Cork, M. A., Daoud, F., Das Gupta, R., Weaver, N. D., De Neve, J. -W, Deribe, K., Desalegn, B. B., Deshpande, A., Desta, M., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Dinberu, M. T., Djalalinia, S., Dubey, M., Dubljanin, E., Durães, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Kalan, M. E., El-Khatib, Z., Eshrati, B., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faro, A., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, E., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Fukumoto, T., García, J. A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Grada, A., Guo, Y., Gupta, R., Gupta, V., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hamadeh, R. R., Hamidi, S., Hasan, M., Hassen, H. Y., Hendrie, D., Henok, A., Henry, N. J., Prado, B. H., Herteliu, C., Hole, M. K., Hossain, N., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hu, G., Ilesanmi, O. S., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, S. M. S., Izadi, N., Jakovljevic, M., Jha, R. P., Ji, J. S., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kanchan, T., Kasaeian, A., Karyani, A. K., Keiyoro, P. N., Kesavachandran, C. N., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khater, M. M., Kiadaliri, A. A., Kiirithio, D. N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kosen, S., Koyanagi, A., Krishan, K., Defo, B. K., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Lami, F. H., Lee, P. H., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Liao, Y., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Lopez, J. C. F., Majdan, M., Majdzadeh, R., Majeed, A., Malekzadeh, R., Mansournia, M. A., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Mayala, B. K., Mehta, K. M., Mendoza, W., Mensah, G. A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Mini, G. K., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Moazen, B., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mohammed, S., Mohebi, F., Mokdad, A. H., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Morrison, S. D., Mosser, J. F., Mousavi, S. M., Murray, C. J. L., Mustafa, G., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Nguyen, C. T., Nguyen, L. H., Ningrum, D. N. A., Noubiap, J. J., Shiadeh, M. N., Nyasulu, P. S., Ogbo, F. A., Olagunju, A. T., Olusanya, B. O., Olusanya, J. O., Onwujekwe, O. E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz-Panozo, Eduardo, Øverland, S., P. A, M., Pana, A., Panda-Jonas, S., Pati, S., Patton, G. C., Perico, N., Pigott, D. M., Pirsaheb, M., Postma, M. J., Pourshams, A., Prakash, S., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Radfar, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahman, M. H. U., Rajati, F., Ranabhat, C. L., Rawaf, D. L., Rawaf, S., Reiner, R.C., Jr, Remuzzi, G., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Rios-González, C., Roever, L., Ronfani, L., Roshandel, G., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Safari, Y., Sagar, R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Samy, A. M., Sanabria, J., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Sawant, A. R., Schaeffer, L. E., Schipp, M. F., Schwebel, D. C., Senbeta, A. M., Sepanlou, S. G., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharma, R., She, J., Sheikh, A., Shigematsu, M., Siabani, S., Silveira, D. G. A., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Skirbekk, V., Sligar, A., Sobaih, B. H., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Soyiri, I. N., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Babale Sufiyan, M., Sutradhar, I., Sylaja, P., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tadesse, B. T., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, B., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Topor-Madry, R., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Car, L. T., Ullah, I., Uthman, O. A., Valdez, P. R., Veisani, Y., Violante, F. S., Vlassov, V., Vollmer, S., Thu Vu, G., Waheed, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Wilkinson, J. C., Winkler, A. S., Wolfe, C. D. A., Yamada, T., Yeshaneh, A., Yip, P., Yisma, E., Yonemoto, N., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yu, C., Bin Zaman, S., Zhang, J., Zhang, Y., Zodpey, S., Gakidou, E., Hay, S. I., and Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Educational Attainment
- Abstract
Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1–3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4–6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9–11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12–14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations.
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- 2020
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17. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
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Frank, T.D. Carter, A. Jahagirdar, D. Biehl, M.H. Douwes-Schultz, D. Larson, S.L. Arora, M. Dwyer-Lindgren, L. Steuben, K.M. Abbastabar, H. Abu-Raddad, L.J. Abyu, D.M. Adabi, M. Adebayo, O.M. Adekanmbi, V. Adetokunboh, O.O. Ahmadi, A. Ahmadi, K. Ahmadian, E. Ahmadpour, E. Ahmed, M.B. Akal, C.G. Alahdab, F. Alam, N. Albertson, S.B. Alemnew, B.T.T. Alene, K.A. Alipour, V. Alvis-Guzman, N. Amini, S. Anbari, Z. Anber, N.H. Anjomshoa, M. Antonio, C.A.T. Arabloo, J. Aremu, O. Areri, H.A. Asfaw, E.T. Ashagre, A.F. Asmelash, D. Asrat, A.A. Avokpaho, E.F.G.A. Awasthi, A. Awoke, N. Ayanore, M.A. Azari, S. Badawi, A. Bagherzadeh, M. Banach, M. Barac, A. Bärnighausen, T.W. Basu, S. Bedi, N. Behzadifar, M. Bekele, B.B. Belay, S.A. Belay, Y.B. Belayneh, Y.M.M. Berhane, A. Bhat, A.G. Bhattacharyya, K. Biadgo, B. Bijani, A. Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, M. Bitew, H. Blinov, A. Bogale, K.A. Bojia, H.A. Burugina Nagaraja, S.B.N. Butt, Z.A. Cahuana-Hurtado, L. Campuzano Rincon, J.C. Carvalho, F. Chattu, V.K. Christopher, D.J. Chu, D.-T. Crider, R. Dahiru, T. Dandona, L. Dandona, R. Daryani, A. Das Neves, J. De Neve, J.-W. Degenhardt, L. Demeke, F.M. Demis, A.B.B. Demissie, D.B. Demoz, G.T. Deribe, K. Des Jarlais, D. Dhungana, G.P. Diaz, D. Djalalinia, S. Do, H.P. Doan, L.P. Duber, H. Dubey, M. Dubljanin, E. Duken, E.E. Duko Adema, B. Effiong, A. Eftekhari, A. El Sayed Zaki, M. El-Jaafary, S.I. El-Khatib, Z. Elsharkawy, A. Endries, A.Y. Eskandarieh, S. Eyawo, O. Farzadfar, F. Fatima, B. Fentahun, N. Fernandes, E. Filip, I. Fischer, F. Folayan, M.O. Foroutan, M. Fukumoto, T. Fullman, N. Garcia-Basteiro, A.L. Gayesa, R.T. Gebremedhin, K.B. Gebremeskel, G.G. Gebreyohannes, K.K. Gedefaw, G.A. Gelaw, B.K. Gesesew, H.A. Geta, B. Gezae, K.E. Ghadiri, K. Ghashghaee, A. Ginindza, T.T.G. Gugnani, H.C. Guimarães, R.A. Haile, M.T. Hailu, G.B. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Haj-Mirzaian, A. Hamidi, S. Handanagic, S. Handiso, D.W. Hanfore, L.K. Hasanzadeh, A. Hassankhani, H. Hassen, H.Y. Hay, S.I. Henok, A. Hoang, C.L. Hosgood, H.D. Hosseinzadeh, M. Hsairi, M. Ibitoye, S.E. Idrisov, B. Ikuta, K.S. Ilesanmi, O.S. Irvani, S.S.N. Iwu, C.J. Jacobsen, K.H. James, S.L. Jenabi, E. Jha, R.P. Jonas, J.B. Jorjoran Shushtari, Z. Kabir, A. Kabir, Z. Kadel, R. Kasaeian, A. Kassa, B. Kassa, G.M. Kassa, T.D. Kayode, G.A. Kebede, M.M. Kefale, A.T. Kengne, A.P. Khader, Y.S. Khafaie, M.A. Khalid, N. Khan, E.A. Khan, G. Khan, J. Khang, Y.-H. Khatab, K. Khazaei, S. Khoja, A.T. Kiadaliri, A.A. Kim, Y.J. Kisa, A. Kisa, S. Kochhar, S. Komaki, H. Koul, P.A. Koyanagi, A. Kuate Defo, B. Kumar, G.A. Kumar, M. Kuupiel, D. Lal, D.K. Lee, J.J.-H. Lenjebo, T.L. Leshargie, C.T. Macarayan, E.R.K. Maddison, E.R. Magdy Abd El Razek, H. Magis-Rodriguez, C. Mahasha, P.W. Majdan, M. Majeed, A. Malekzadeh, R. Manafi, N. Mapoma, C.C. Martins-Melo, F.R. Masaka, A. Mayenga, E.N.L. Mehta, V. Meles, G.G. Meles, H.G. Melese, A. Melku, M. Memiah, P.T.N. Memish, Z.A. Mena, A.T. Mendoza, W. Mengistu, D.T. Mengistu, G. Meretoja, T.J. Mestrovic, T. Miller, T.R. Moazen, B. Mohajer, B. Mohamadi-Bolbanabad, A. Mohammad, K.A. Mohammad, Y. Mohammad Darwesh, A. Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, N. Mohammadi, M. Mohammadibakhsh, R. Mohammadoo-Khorasani, M. Mohammed, J.A. Mohammed, S. Mohebi, F. Mokdad, A.H. Moodley, Y. Moossavi, M. Moradi, G. Moradi-Lakeh, M. Moschos, M.M. Mossie, T.B. Mousavi, S.M. Muchie, K.F. Muluneh, A.G. Muriithi, M.K. Mustafa, G. Muthupandian, S. Nagarajan, A.J. Naik, G. Najafi, F. Nazari, J. Ndwandwe, D.E. Nguyen, C.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, S.H. Nguyen, T.H. Ningrum, D.N.A. Nixon, M.R. Nnaji, C.A. Noroozi, M. Noubiap, J.J. Nourollahpour Shiadeh, M. Obsa, M.S. Odame, E.A. Ofori-Asenso, R. Ogbo, F.A. Okoro, A. Oladimeji, O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, T.O. Olum, S. Oppong Asante, K. Oren, E. Otstavnov, S.S. Mahesh, P.A. Padubidri, J.R. Pakhale, S. Pakpour, A.H. Patel, S.K. Paulos, K. Pepito, V.C.F. Peprah, E.K. Piroozi, B. Pourshams, A. Qorbani, M. Rabiee, M. Rabiee, N. Radfar, A. Rafay, A. Rafiei, A. Rahim, F. Rahimi-Movaghar, A. Rahimi-Movaghar, V. Rahman, S.U. Ranabhat, C.L. Rawaf, S. Reis, C. Renjith, V. Reta, M.A. Rezai, M.S. Rios González, C.M. Merdassa Roro, E.E.M. Rostami, A. Rubino, S. Saeedi Moghaddam, S. Safari, S. Sagar, R. Sahraian, M.A. Salem, M.R.R. Salimi, Y. Salomon, J.A. Sambala, E.Z. Samy, A.M. Sartorius, B. Satpathy, M. Sawhney, M. Sayyah, M. Schutte, A.E. Sepanlou, S.G. Seyedmousavi, S. Shabaninejad, H. Shaheen, A.A. Shaikh, M.A. Shallo, S.A. Shamsizadeh, M. Sharifi, H. Shibuya, K. Shin, J.I. Shirkoohi, R. Silva, D.A.S. Silveira, D.G.A. Singh, J.A. Sisay, M.M.M. Sisay, M. Sisay, S. Smith, A.E. Sokhan, A. Somayaji, R. Soshnikov, S. Stein, D.J. Sufiyan, M.B. Sunguya, B.F. Sykes, B.L. Tadesse, B.T. Tadesse, D.B. Tamirat, K.S. Taveira, N. Tekelemedhin, S.W. Temesgen, H.D. Tesfay, F.H. Teshale, M.Y. Thapa, S. Tlaye, K.G. Topp, S.M. Tovani-Palone, M.R. Tran, B.X. Tran, K.B. Ullah, I. Unnikrishnan, B. Uthman, O.A. Veisani, Y. Vladimirov, S.K. Wada, F.W. Waheed, Y. Weldegwergs, K.G. Weldesamuel, G.T.T. Westerman, R. Wijeratne, T. Wolde, H.F. Wondafrash, D.Z. Wonde, T.E. Wondmagegn, B.Y. Yeshanew, A.G. Yilma, M.T. Yimer, E.M. Yonemoto, N. Yotebieng, M. Youm, Y. Yu, C. Zaidi, Z. Zarghi, A. Zenebe, Z.M. Zewale, T.A. Ziapour, A. Zodpey, S. Naghavi, M. Vollset, S.E. Wang, H. Lim, S.S. Kyu, H.H. Murray, C.J.L. GBD 2017 HIV collaborators
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Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
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- 2019
18. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
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Frank, T. D., Carter, A., Jahagirdar, D., Biehl, M. H., Douwes-Schultz, D., Larson, S. L., Arora, M., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Steuben, K. M., Abbastabar, H., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abyu, D. M., Adabi, M., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O. O., Ahmadi, A., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadian, E., Tesfay, Fisaha, Frank, T. D., Carter, A., Jahagirdar, D., Biehl, M. H., Douwes-Schultz, D., Larson, S. L., Arora, M., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Steuben, K. M., Abbastabar, H., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abyu, D. M., Adabi, M., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O. O., Ahmadi, A., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadian, E., and Tesfay, Fisaha
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- 2019
19. Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000-2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study
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Mosser, JF, Gagne-Maynard, W, Rao, PC, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Fullman, N, Graetz, N, Burstein, R, Updike, RL, Liu, PY, Ray, SE, Earl, L, Deshpande, A, Casey, DC, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Cromwell, EA, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Larson, HJ, Weiss, DJ, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Murray, CJL, Lim, SS, Reiner, RC, Hay, SI, Mosser, JF, Gagne-Maynard, W, Rao, PC, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Fullman, N, Graetz, N, Burstein, R, Updike, RL, Liu, PY, Ray, SE, Earl, L, Deshpande, A, Casey, DC, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Cromwell, EA, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Larson, HJ, Weiss, DJ, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Murray, CJL, Lim, SS, Reiner, RC, and Hay, SI
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time. METHODS: This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 × 5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12-23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016. FINDINGS: Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6-80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola. INTERPRETATION: Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vuln
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- 2019
20. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
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Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D. -T, Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, Koustuv, Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W, Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., JÌrisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y. -H, Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A. -L, Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Mahesh, P. A., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E. -K, Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salehi, F., Zahabi, S. S., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J. A., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Jose, B. P. S., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suárez, R., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Saxena, S., Sbarra, A. N., Schaeffer, L. E., Schwebel, D. C., Sepanlou, S. G., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaahmadi, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamshirian, A., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharif, M., Sharif-Alhoseini, M., Sharifi, H., Sharma, J., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shields, C., Shigematsu, M., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T. J., Silva, J. P., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Sisay, M. M., Sisay, S., Sliwa, K., Smith, D. L., Somayaji, R., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Sykes, B. L., Sylaja, P. N., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taveira, N., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Thirunavukkarasu, S., To, Q. G., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Usman, M. S., Uthman, O. A., Vahedian-Azimi, A., Valdez, P. R., van Boven, J. F. M., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vladimirov, S. K., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vujcic, I. S., Waheed, Y., Wakefield, J., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Ward, J. L., Weintraub, R. G., Weldegwergs, K. G., Weldesamuel, G. T., Westerman, R., Wiysonge, C. S., Wondafrash, D. Z., Woyczynski, L., Wu, A. -M, Xu, G., Yadegar, A., Yamada, T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yilgwan, C. S., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Lebni, J. Y., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yousof, H. -AS. A., Yu, C., Yusefzadeh, H., Zabeh, E., Moghadam, T. Z., Bin Zaman, S., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zangeneh, A., Zerfu, T. A., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Murray, C. J. L., Hay, S. I., Burstein, R., Henry, N. J., Collison, M. L., Marczak, L. B., Sligar, A., Watson, S., Marquez, N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi, M., Abbasi, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdoli, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abdulkader, R. S., Abrigo, M. R. M., Acharya, D., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., Adham, D., Afshari, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmadi, K., Ahmadi, M., Ahmadpour, E., Ahmed, R., Akal, C. G., Akinyemi, J. O., Alahdab, F., Alam, N., Alamene, G. M., Alene, K. A., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipour, V., Aljunid, S. M., Almalki, M. J., Al-Mekhlafi, H. M., Altirkawi, K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amegah, A. K., Amini, S., Amit, A. M. L., Anbari, Z., Androudi, S., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Antonio, C. A. T., Arabloo, J., Arefi, Z., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Arora, A., Artaman, A., Asadi, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Ashraf-Ganjouei, A., Assadi, R., Ataeinia, B., Atre, S. R., Quintanilla, B. P. A., Ayanore, M. A., Azari, S., Babaee, E., Babazadeh, A., Badawi, A., Bagheri, S., Bagherzadeh, M., Baheiraei, N., Balouchi, A., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Baune, B. T., Bayati, M., Bedi, N., Beghi, E., Behzadifar, M., Belay, Y. B., Bell, B., Bell, M. L., Berbada, D. A., Bernstein, R. S., Bhattacharjee, N. V., Bhattarai, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Bohlouli, S., Breitborde, N. J. K., Britton, G., Browne, A. J., Nagaraja, S. B., Busse, R., Butt, Z. A., Car, J., Cárdenas, R., Castañeda-Orjuela, C. A., Cerin, E., Chanie, W. F., Chatterjee, P., Chu, D. -T, Cooper, C., Costa, V. M., Dalal, Koustuv, Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daoud, F., Daryani, A., Das Gupta, R., Davis, I., Davis Weaver, N., Davitoiu, D. V., De Neve, J. -W, Demeke, F. M., Demoz, G. T., Deribe, K., Desai, R., Deshpande, A., Desyibelew, H. D., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S. D., Dhimal, M., Diaz, D., Doshmangir, L., Duraes, A. R., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Earl, L., Ebrahimi, R., Ebrahimpour, S., Effiong, A., Eftekhari, A., Ehsani-Chimeh, E., El Sayed, I., El Sayed Zaki, M., El Tantawi, M., El-Khatib, Z., Emamian, M. H., Enany, S., Eskandarieh, S., Eyawo, O., Ezalarab, M., Faramarzi, M., Fareed, M., Faridnia, R., Faro, A., Fazaeli, A. A., Fazlzadeh, M., Fentahun, N., Fereshtehnejad, S. -M, Fernandes, J. C., Filip, I., Fischer, F., Foigt, N. A., Foroutan, M., Francis, J. M., Fukumoto, T., Fullman, N., Gallus, S., Gebre, D. G., Gebrehiwot, T. T., Gebremeskel, G. G., Gessner, B. D., Geta, B., Gething, P. W., Ghadimi, R., Ghadiri, K., Ghajarzadeh, M., Ghashghaee, A., Gill, P. S., Gill, T. K., Golding, N., Gomes, N. G. M., Gona, P. N., Gopalani, S. V., Gorini, G., Goulart, B. N. G., Graetz, N., Greaves, F., Green, M. S., Guo, Y., Haj-Mirzaian, A., Hall, B. J., Hamidi, S., Haririan, H., Haro, J. M., Hasankhani, M., Hasanpoor, E., Hasanzadeh, A., Hassankhani, H., Hassen, H. Y., Hegazy, M. I., Hendrie, D., Heydarpour, F., Hird, T. R., Hoang, C. L., Hollerich, G., Rad, E. H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi, M., Hossain, N., Hosseini, M., Hosseinzadeh, M., Hostiuc, M., Hostiuc, S., Househ, M., Hsairi, M., Ilesanmi, O. S., Imani-Nasab, M. H., Iqbal, U., Irvani, S. S. N., Islam, N., Islam, S. M. S., JÌrisson, M., Balalami, N. J., Jalali, A., Javidnia, J., Jayatilleke, A. U., Jenabi, E., Ji, J. S., Jobanputra, Y. B., Johnson, K., Jonas, J. B., Shushtari, Z. J., Jozwiak, J. J., Kabir, A., Kahsay, A., Kalani, H., Kalhor, R., Karami, M., Karki, S., Kasaeian, A., Kassebaum, N. J., Keiyoro, P. N., Kemp, G. R., Khabiri, R., Khader, Y. S., Khafaie, M. A., Khan, E. A., Khan, J., Khan, M. S., Khang, Y. -H, Khatab, K., Khater, A., Khater, M. M., Khatony, A., Khazaei, M., Khazaei, S., Khazaei-Pool, M., Khubchandani, J., Kianipour, N., Kim, Y. J., Kimokoti, R. W., Kinyoki, D. K., Kisa, A., Kisa, S., Kolola, T., Kosen, S., Koul, P. A., Koyanagi, A., Kraemer, M. U. G., Krishan, K., Krohn, K. J., Kugbey, N., Kumar, G. A., Kumar, M., Kumar, P., Kuupiel, D., Lacey, B., Lad, S. D., Lami, F. H., Larsson, A. O., Lee, P. H., Leili, M., Levine, A. J., Li, S., Lim, L. -L, Listl, S., Longbottom, J., Lopez, J. C. F., Lorkowski, S., Magdeldin, S., Abd El Razek, H. M., Abd El Razek, M. M., Majeed, A., Maleki, A., Malekzadeh, R., Malta, D. C., Mamun, A. A., Manafi, N., Manda, A. -L, Mansourian, M., Martins-Melo, F. R., Masaka, A., Massenburg, B. B., Maulik, P. K., Mayala, B. K., Mazidi, M., McKee, M., Mehrotra, R., Mehta, K. M., Meles, G. G., Mendoza, W., Menezes, R. G., Meretoja, A., Meretoja, T. J., Mestrovic, T., Miller, T. R., Miller-Petrie, M. K., Mills, E. J., Milne, G. J., Mini, G. K., Mir, S. M., Mirjalali, H., Mirrakhimov, E. M., Mohamadi, E., Mohammad, D. K., Darwesh, A. M., Mezerji, N. M. G., Mohammed, A. S., Mohammed, S., Mokdad, A. H., Molokhia, M., Monasta, L., Moodley, Y., Moosazadeh, M., Moradi, G., Moradi, M., Moradi, Y., Moradi-Lakeh, M., Moradinazar, M., Moraga, P., Morawska, L., Mosapour, A., Mousavi, S. M., Mueller, U. O., Muluneh, A. G., Mustafa, G., Nabavizadeh, B., Naderi, M., Nagarajan, A. J., Nahvijou, A., Najafi, F., Nangia, V., Ndwandwe, D. E., Neamati, N., Negoi, I., Negoi, R. I., Ngunjiri, J. W., Thi Nguyen, H. L., Nguyen, L. H., Nguyen, S. H., Nielsen, K. R., Ningrum, D. N. A., Nirayo, Y. L., Nixon, M. R., Nnaji, C. A., Nojomi, M., Noroozi, M., Nosratnejad, S., Noubiap, J. J., Motlagh, S. N., Ofori-Asenso, R., Ogbo, F. A., Oladimeji, K. E., Olagunju, A. T., Olfatifar, M., Olum, S., Olusanya, B. O., Oluwasanu, M. M., Onwujekwe, O. E., Oren, E., Ortega-Altamirano, D. D. V., Ortiz, A., Osarenotor, O., Osei, F. B., Osgood-Zimmerman, A. E., Otstavnov, S. S., Owolabi, M. O., Mahesh, P. A., Pagheh, A. S., Pakhale, S., Panda-Jonas, S., Pandey, A., Park, E. -K, Parsian, H., Pashaei, T., Patel, S. K., Pepito, V. C. F., Pereira, A., Perkins, S., Pickering, B. V., Pilgrim, T., Pirestani, M., Piroozi, B., Pirsaheb, M., Plana-Ripoll, O., Pourjafar, H., Puri, P., Qorbani, M., Quintana, H., Rabiee, M., Rabiee, N., Radfar, A., Rafiei, A., Rahim, F., Rahimi, Z., Rahimi-Movaghar, V., Rahimzadeh, S., Rajati, F., Raju, S. B., Ramezankhani, A., Ranabhat, C. L., Rasella, D., Rashedi, V., Rawal, L., Reiner Jr, R. C., Renzaho, A. M. N., Rezaei, S., Rezapour, A., Riahi, S. M., Ribeiro, A. I., Roever, L., Roro, E. M., Roser, M., Roshandel, G., Roshani, D., Rostami, A., Rubagotti, E., Rubino, S., Sabour, S., Sadat, N., Sadeghi, E., Saeedi, R., Safari, Y., Safari-Faramani, R., Safdarian, M., Sahebkar, A., Salahshoor, M. R., Salam, N., Salamati, P., Salehi, F., Zahabi, S. S., Salimi, Y., Salimzadeh, H., Salomon, J. A., Sambala, E. Z., Samy, A. M., Santric Milicevic, M. M., Jose, B. P. S., Saraswathy, S. Y. I., Sarmiento-Suárez, R., Sartorius, B., Sathian, B., Saxena, S., Sbarra, A. N., Schaeffer, L. E., Schwebel, D. C., Sepanlou, S. G., Seyedmousavi, S., Shaahmadi, F., Shaikh, M. A., Shams-Beyranvand, M., Shamshirian, A., Shamsizadeh, M., Sharafi, K., Sharif, M., Sharif-Alhoseini, M., Sharifi, H., Sharma, J., Sharma, R., Sheikh, A., Shields, C., Shigematsu, M., Shiri, R., Shiue, I., Shuval, K., Siddiqi, T. J., Silva, J. P., Singh, J. A., Sinha, D. N., Sisay, M. M., Sisay, S., Sliwa, K., Smith, D. L., Somayaji, R., Soofi, M., Soriano, J. B., Sreeramareddy, C. T., Sudaryanto, A., Sufiyan, M. B., Sykes, B. L., Sylaja, P. N., Tabarés-Seisdedos, R., Tabb, K. M., Tabuchi, T., Taveira, N., Temsah, M. -H, Terkawi, A. S., Tessema, Z. T., Thankappan, K. R., Thirunavukkarasu, S., To, Q. G., Tovani-Palone, M. R., Tran, B. X., Tran, K. B., Ullah, I., Usman, M. S., Uthman, O. A., Vahedian-Azimi, A., Valdez, P. R., van Boven, J. F. M., Vasankari, T. J., Vasseghian, Y., Veisani, Y., Venketasubramanian, N., Violante, F. S., Vladimirov, S. K., Vlassov, V., Vos, T., Vu, G. T., Vujcic, I. S., Waheed, Y., Wakefield, J., Wang, H., Wang, Y., Wang, Y. -P, Ward, J. L., Weintraub, R. G., Weldegwergs, K. G., Weldesamuel, G. T., Westerman, R., Wiysonge, C. S., Wondafrash, D. Z., Woyczynski, L., Wu, A. -M, Xu, G., Yadegar, A., Yamada, T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yilgwan, C. S., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Lebni, J. Y., Younis, M. Z., Yousefifard, M., Yousof, H. -AS. A., Yu, C., Yusefzadeh, H., Zabeh, E., Moghadam, T. Z., Bin Zaman, S., Zamani, M., Zandian, H., Zangeneh, A., Zerfu, T. A., Zhang, Y., Ziapour, A., Zodpey, S., Murray, C. J. L., and Hay, S. I.
- Abstract
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2âto end preventable child deaths by 2030âwe need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000â2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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- 2019
- Full Text
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21. Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000‒2015: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals
- Author
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Golding, N, Burstein, R, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Fullman, N, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Cameron, E, Casey, D, Dowell, SF, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Farag, TH, Flaxman, AD, Gething, PW, Gibson, HS, Graetz, N, Krause, K, Lim, SS, Mappin, B, Morozoff, C, Reiner Jr, RC, Smith, DL, Wang, H, Weiss, DJ, Murray, CJL, Moyes, CL, and Hay, SI
- Abstract
Background During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress substantially varied at the national level, further demonstrating a vital need to track even more localised trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding past trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. Methods We assembled 215 geographically-resolved data sources on child deaths to produce 5x5 kilometre (km) estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytic framework to generate these estimates, and implemented a predictive validity tests. Last, we aggregated these 5x5 km estimates to two subnational administrative levels to maximise the policy utility of these results. Findings Amid improving child survival in Africa, substantial heterogeneity was found in terms absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015 and the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Egypt, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by or prior to 2030. Yet these geographies were the exception for Africa: to achieve SDG 3.2 for under-5 mortality by 2030, most of the continent – particularly in central and western Africa – must at least double the pace at which mortality rates fell between 2000 and 2015. Interpretation In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing child mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, our study offers decision-makers a powerful set of tools for targeting interventions to populations in the greatest need. In an era where precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programs, our 5x5 km estimates of child survival in Africa provide a vital baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030.
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- 2017
22. Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000-15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals
- Author
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Golding, N, Burstein, R, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Fullman, N, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Cameron, E, Casey, DC, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Farag, TH, Flaxman, AD, Fraser, MS, Gething, PW, Gibson, HS, Graetz, N, Krause, LK, Kulikoff, XR, Lim, SS, Mappin, B, Morozoff, C, Reiner, RC, Sligar, A, Smith, DL, Wang, H, Weiss, DJ, Murray, CJL, Moyes, CL, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Burstein, R, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Fullman, N, Osgood-Zimmerman, A, Earl, L, Bhatt, S, Cameron, E, Casey, DC, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Farag, TH, Flaxman, AD, Fraser, MS, Gething, PW, Gibson, HS, Graetz, N, Krause, LK, Kulikoff, XR, Lim, SS, Mappin, B, Morozoff, C, Reiner, RC, Sligar, A, Smith, DL, Wang, H, Weiss, DJ, Murray, CJL, Moyes, CL, and Hay, SI
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. METHODS: We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. FINDINGS: Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortalit
- Published
- 2017
23. Self-reported general health, physical distress, mental distress, and activity limitation by US county, 1995-2012
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Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Mackenbach, Johan, van Lenthe, Frank, Mokdad, AH, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Mackenbach, Johan, van Lenthe, Frank, and Mokdad, AH
- Published
- 2017
24. High Spatial Resolution Mapping of Changing Inequalities in Child Mortality Across Africa between 2000 and 2015
- Author
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Burstein, R., primary, Golding, N., additional, Osgood-Zimmerman, A., additional, Longbottom, J., additional, Dwyer-Lindgren, L., additional, Browne, A., additional, Earl, L., additional, Morozoff, C., additional, Lim, S., additional, Wang, H., additional, Flaxman, A.D., additional, Weiss, D., additional, Bhatt, S., additional, Farag, T., additional, Krause, L.K., additional, Dowell, S., additional, Gething, P., additional, Murray, C.J., additional, Moyes, C., additional, and Hay, S., additional
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- 2017
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25. Primary health care in Nigeria: a systematic subnational analysis of levels and trends in maternal and child interventions 2000–13
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Burstein, R, primary, Wollum, A, additional, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, additional, and Gakidou, E, additional
- Published
- 2015
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26. Equity and Geography: The Case of Child Mortality in Papua New Guinea
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Kazembe, L, Bauze, AE, Tran, LN, Nguyen, K-H, Firth, S, Jimenez-Soto, E, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Hodge, A, Lopez, AD, Kazembe, L, Bauze, AE, Tran, LN, Nguyen, K-H, Firth, S, Jimenez-Soto, E, Dwyer-Lindgren, L, Hodge, A, and Lopez, AD
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4. METHODOLOGY: We performed retrospective data validation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006 using 2000 Census data, then applied advanced indirect methods to estimate under-five mortality rates between 1976 and 2000. FINDINGS: The DHS 2006 was found to be unreliable. Hence we used the 2000 Census to estimate under-five mortality rates at national and subnational levels. During the period under study, PNG experienced a slow reduction in national under-five mortality from approximately 103 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births. Subnational analyses revealed significant disparities between rural and urban populations as well as inter- and intra-regional variations. Some of the provinces that performed the best (worst) in terms of under-five mortality included the districts that performed worst (best), with district-level under-five mortality rates correlating strongly with poverty levels and access to services. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence from PNG demonstrates substantial within-province heterogeneity, suggesting that under-five mortality needs to be addressed at subnational levels. This is especially relevant in countries, like PNG, where responsibility for health services is devolved to provinces and districts. This study presents the first comprehensive estimates of under-five mortality at the district level for PNG. The results demonstrate that for countries that rely on few data sources even greater importance must be given to the quality of future population surveys and to the exploration of alternative options of birth and death surveillance.
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- 2012
27. Progress Toward Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 on Maternal and Child Mortality
- Author
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Lozano, R., primary, Wang, H., additional, Foreman, K.J., additional, Rajaratnam, J.K., additional, Naghavi, M., additional, Marcus, J.R., additional, Dwyer-Lindgren, L., additional, Lofgren, K.T., additional, Phillips, D., additional, Atkinson, C., additional, Lopez, A.D., additional, and Murray, C.J., additional
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- 2012
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
28. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017
- Author
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Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Cork, M.A., Sligar, A., Steuben, K.M., Wilson, K.F., Provost, N.R., Mayala, B.K., VanderHeide, J.D., Collison, M.L., Hall, J.B., Biehl, M.H., Carter, A., Tanser, F., Douwes-Schultz, D., Burstein, R., Casey, D.C., Deshpande, A., Earl, L., El Bcheraoui, C., Farag, T.H., Henry, N.J., Kinyoki, D., Marczak, L.B., Nixon, M.R., Osgood-Zimmerman, A., Pigott, D., Reiner, R.C., Ross, J.M., Schaeffer, L.E., Smith, D.L., Davis Weaver, N., Wiens, K.E., Eaton, J.W., Justman, J.E., Opio, A., Sartorius, B., Wabiri, N., Piot, P., Murray, C.J.L., Hay, S.I., Dwyer-Lindgren, L., Cork, M.A., Sligar, A., Steuben, K.M., Wilson, K.F., Provost, N.R., Mayala, B.K., VanderHeide, J.D., Collison, M.L., Hall, J.B., Biehl, M.H., Carter, A., Tanser, F., Douwes-Schultz, D., Burstein, R., Casey, D.C., Deshpande, A., Earl, L., El Bcheraoui, C., Farag, T.H., Henry, N.J., Kinyoki, D., Marczak, L.B., Nixon, M.R., Osgood-Zimmerman, A., Pigott, D., Reiner, R.C., Ross, J.M., Schaeffer, L.E., Smith, D.L., Davis Weaver, N., Wiens, K.E., Eaton, J.W., Justman, J.E., Opio, A., Sartorius, B., Wabiri, N., Piot, P., Murray, C.J.L., and Hay, S.I.
- Abstract
HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15–49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.
29. Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
- Author
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Simachew Animen Bante, Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Deniz Yuce, Ninuk Hariyani, Virginia Núñez-Samudio, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Natalie Maria Cormier, Ghulam Mustafa, Arielle Wilder Eagan, Shirin Djalalinia, Jalal Arabloo, Bay Vo, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Farahnaz Joukar, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Julia Moreira Pescarini, Getinet Kassahun, Robert Ancuceanu, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Amin Soheili, Félix Carvalho, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Aubrey J. Cook, Jasvinder A. Singh, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Sergio I. Prada, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Rajesh Sagar, Emmanuel Peprah, Fenta Hun Y. Beyene, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi, Yun Jin Kim, Maryam Adabi, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Mathew M. Baumann, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Nooshin Abbasi, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Sanjay Basu, Hadi Hassankhani, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Keshab Deuba, Dilshad Manzar, Robert L. Thompson, Keivan Ahmadi, Rahmatollah Moradzadeh, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Alessandra C. Goulart, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Samata Nepal, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Irina Filip, Ian D. Letourneau, Ramesh Holla, Neda Kianipour, Maha El Tantawi, Lucas Earl, Paul S. F. Yip, Miguel A Barboza, Rajan Nikbakhsh, Nauman Khalid, Kimberly B. Johnson, Iván Landires, Manasi Kumar, Babak Moazen, Rohol Lah Kalhor, Dinh-Toi Chu, Lauren E. Schaeffer, Nima Rezaei, Alexandre C. Pereira, Susan F. Rumisha, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Xuefeng Liu, Feng Sha, Mahaveer Golechha, Davood Anvari, Urvish K Patel, Bing-Fang Hwang, Samath D Dharmaratne, Muhammad Aqeel, Kebede Deribe, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Lillian Mwanri, Nuruzzaman Khan, Yunquan Zhang, Paula Moraga, Ai Koyanagi, Abdallah M. Samy, Nithin Kumar, Rahul Gupta, Samad Azari, Soheil Hassanipour, Archith Boloor, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Andrew J. Croneberger, Enrico Rubagotti, Jaykaran Charan, Khezar Hayat, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Kio Mars Sharafi, Ionut Negoi, Simon I. Hay, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Yasser Vasseghian, Yihienew M. Bezabih, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Nazir Fattahi, Adnan Kisa, Alok Atreya, Devasahayam J. Christopher, Ayenew Kassie Tesema, Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe, Jaffar Abbas, Daniel Diaz, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Malke Asaad, Arief Hargono, Zahid A Butt, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Amir Radfar, Salman Rawaf, Vardhmaan Jain, Amir Almasi-Hashiani, Krittika Bhattacharyya, João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Behzad Karami Matin, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Emily Haeuser, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Tomislav Mestrovic, Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal, Arash Ziapour, Samantha Perkins, Deepa Jahagirdar, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Eduarda Fernandes, Nataliya Foigt, Audrey L. Serfes, Fissaha Tekulu Welay, Savita Lasrado, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Hedayat Abbastabar, Om P Kurmi, Hung Chak Ho, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Priya Rathi, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Ali Bijani, Shanshan Li, Reza Rawassizadeh, Vishnu Renjith, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Giang Thu Vu, Farah Daoud, Tudorel Andrei, Ricardo de Souza Kuchenbecker, Fakher Rahim, Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin, Sezer Kisa, Rajesh Elayedath, Shafiu Mohammed, Vinod C. Nayak, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Masoud Foroutan, Mingyou Yang, Yousef Mohammad, Abdul-Aziz Seidu, Benjamin K. Mayala, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Nikha Bhardwaj, Masoud Moradi, Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme, Olatunji O. Adetokunboh, Carlo La Vecchia, Tesfay B.B. Gebremariam, Ritesh G. Menezes, Olatunde Aremu, Bogdan Oancea, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury, Stefanie Watson, Yousef Moradi, Souranshu Chatterjee, Ugo Gori, Isabela M. Benseñor, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Paul Ward, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Usman Iqbal, Rekha Thapar, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Yasir Waheed, Ziad A. Memish, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Daiane Borges Machado, Shrikant Pawar, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Sanni Yaya, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Naohiro Yonemoto, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Marcela Agudelo-Botero, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Kenji Shibuya, Claudiu Herteliu, Andreea Mirica, André Karch, Asif Hanif, Atif Amin Baig, Salah Eddin Karimi, Gulfaraz Khan, David Laith Rawaf, Andrew T Olagunju, Chuanhua Yu, Darshan B B, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Takeshi Fukumoto, Neeraj Bedi, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Deepak Madi, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Masood Ali Shaikh, Juwel Rana, Tanuj Kanchan, Mohamed M. Gad, Syed Amir Gilani, Victor Adekanmbi, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Harish Chander Gugnani, Tadele G. Adal, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Leila R Kalankesh, Gbenga A. Kayode, Bach Xuan Tran, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Basavaprabhu Achappa, Andem Effiong, André Faro, Javad Nazari, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Soewarta Kosen, Vahid Alipour, Sowmya J. Rao, Rosario Cárdenas, Milena Ilic, Ravi Prakash Jha, Zebenay Workneh Bitew, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Dian Kusuma, Yum Ing Guo, Mowafa Househ, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Krista M. Steuben, Hadush Negash, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Irena Ilic, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Godfrey Mutashambara Rwegerera, Florian Fischer, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Kate E. LeGrand, Ravishankar Nagaraja, Reza Mohammadpourhodki, Mark Drew Crosland Guimarães, Kewal Krishan, Maryam Zamanian, Paul H. Lee, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Rafael Alves Guimarães, Aziz Sheikh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Michael A. Cork, Francesco Saverio Violante, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Liliana Preotescu, Somayeh Bohlouli, Aziz Rezapour, Ana Melisa Pardo-Montaño, Huong Lan Thi Nguyen, Khaled Khatab, Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile, Mohammad Ali Moni, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Leonardo Roever, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Andre R. Brunoni, Nathaniel J. Henry, Brijesh Sathian, Bingyu Li, Maciej Banach, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Nikita Otstavnov, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Fernando de la Hoz, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Jae Il Shin, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Yuan-Pang Wang, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Vaman Kulkarni, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Sait Mentes Birlik, Maarten J. Postma, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Walter Mendoza, Yanzhong Wang, Maryam Keramati, Mahesh P A, Ali H. Mokdad, Muhammad Naveed, Nitin Joseph, Ronny Westerman, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Cork M.A., Henry N.J., Watson S., Croneberger A.J., Baumann M., Letourneau I.D., Yang M., Serfes A.L., Abbas J., Abbasi N., Abbastabar H., Abreu L.G., Abu-Gharbieh E., Achappa B., Adabi M., Adal T.G., Adegbosin A.E., Adekanmbi V., Adetokunboh O.O., Agudelo-Botero M., Ahinkorah B.O., Ahmadi K., Ahmed M.B., Alhassan R.K., Alipour V., Almasi-Hashiani A., Alvis-Guzman N., Ancuceanu R., Andrei T., Anvari D., Aqeel M., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Asaad M., Atnafu D.D., Atreya A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., B D.B., Baig A.A., Banach M., Bante S.A., Barboza M.A., Basu S., Bedi N., Ramirez D.F.B., Bensenor I.M., Beyene F.-H.Y., Bezabih Y.M., Bhagavathula A.S., Bhardwaj N., Bhardwaj P., Bhattacharyya K., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Birlik S.M., Bitew Z.W., Bohlouli S., Boloor A., Brunoni A.R., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Carvalho F., Castaldelli-Maia J.M., Casta-neda-orjuela C.A., Charan J., Chatterjee S., Chattu V.K., Chattu S.K., Chowdhury M.A.K., Christopher D.J., Chu D.-T., Cook A.J., Cormier N.M., Dahlawi S.M.A., Daoud F., Davila-Cervantes C.A., Weaver N.D., De la Hoz F.P., Demeke F.M., Denova-Gutierrez E., Deribe K., Deuba K., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhungana G.P., Diaz D., Djalalinia S., Duraes A.R., Eagan A.W., Earl L., Effiong A., Zaki M.E.S., Tantawi M.E., Elayedath R., El-Jaafary S.I., Faraon E.J.A., Faro A., Fattahi N., Fauk N.K., Fernandes E., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Fukumoto T., Gad M.M., Gebremariam T.B.B., Gebremed-Hin K.B., Gebremeskel G.G., Gesesew H.A., Ghadiri K., Ghashghaee A., Gilani S.A., Golechha M., Gori U., Goulart A.C., Goulart B.N.G., Gugnani H.C., Guimaraes M.D.C., Guimaraes R.A., Guo Y.-I., Gupta R., Haeuser E., Haider M.R., Haile T.G., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hanif A., Hargono A., Hariyani N., Hassanipour S., Hassankhani H., Hayat K., Herteliu C., Ho H.C., Holla R., Hosseinzadeh M., Househ M., Hwang B.-F., Ibeneme C.U., Ibitoye S.E., Ile-Sanmi O.S., Ilic M.D., Ilic I.M., Iqbal U., Jahagir-Dar D., Jain V., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Johnson K.B., Joseph N., Joukar F., Kalankesh L.R., Kalhor R.-L., Kanchan T., Matin B.K., Karch A., Karimi S.E., Kassahun G., Kayode G.A., Karyani A.K., Keramati M., Khalid N., Khan E.A., Khan G., Khan M.N.N., Khatab K., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kisa S., Kisa A., Kosen S., Laxminarayana S.L.K., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kuchenbecker R.S., Kulkarni V., Kumar N., Kumar M., Kurmi O.P., Kusuma D., Vecchia C.L., Lal D.K., Landires I., Lasrado S., Lee P.H., Legrand K.E., Li B., Li S., Liu X., Amin H.I.M., Machado D.B., Madi D., Magis-Rodriguez C., Malta D.C., Mansournia M.A., Manzar M.D., Arnedo C.A.M., Martins-Melo F.R., Masoumi S.Z., Mayala B.K., Medina-Solis C.E., Memish Z.A., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Mestrovic T., Mirica A., Moazen B., Mohammad Y., Mezerji N.M.G., Mohammadian-Hafshejani A., Mohammadpourhodki R., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Moni M.A., Moradi M., Moradi Y., Moradzadeh R., Moraga P., Khaneghah A.M.-S., Mustafa G., Mwanri L., Nagaraja R., Nagarajan A.J., Naim-Zada M.D., Nascimento B.R., Naveed D.M., Nayak V.C., Nazari J., Negash H., Negoi I., Nepal S., Nguefack-Tsague G., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen H.L.T., Nikbakhsh R., Noubiap J.J., Nunez-Samudio V., Oancea B., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Otstav-Nov N., A M.P., Padubidri J.R., Pandi-Perumal S.R., Pardo-Montano A.M., Patel U.K., Pawar S., Peprah E.K., Pereira A., Perkins S., Pescarini J.M., Pokhrel K.N., Postma M.J., Pot-Too F.H., Prada S.I., Preotescu L., Pribadi D.R.A., Radfar A., Rahim F., Rahman M.H.U., Rahmani A.M., Ramezanzadeh K., Rana J., Ranabhat C.L., Rao S.J., Rathi P., Rawaf S., Rawaf D.L., Rawassizadeh R., Renjith V., Rezaei N., Rezapour A., Ribeiro A.I., Roever L., Rubagotti E., Rumisha S.F., Rwegerera G.M., Sagar R., Sajadi S.M., Salem M.R., Samy A.M., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sathian B., Schaeffer L.E., Schneider I.J.C., Seidu A.-A., Sha F., Shaikh M.A., Sharafi K.-M., Sheikh A., Shibuya K., Shin J.I., Silva D.A.S., Singh J.A., Skryabin V.Y., Skryabina A.A., Sligar A., Soheili A., Steuben K.M., Sufiyan M.B., Tadesse E.G., Tesema A.K.T., Tesfay F.H., Thapar R., Thompson R.L., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tsegaye G.W., Umeokonkwo C.D., Unnikrish-Nan B., Vasseghian Y., Violante F.S., Vo B., Vu G.T., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Wang Y., Ward P., Welay F.T., Westerman R., Wickramasinghe N.D., Yaya S., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Yu C., Yuce D., Yusefzadeh H., Zamanian M., Zastroz-Hin M.S., Zhang Z.-J., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Hay S.I., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Local Burden of Disease HIV Collaborators, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Cork, Michael A, Henry, Nathaniel J, Watson, Stefanie, Croneberger, Andrew J, Ahmed, Muktar B, Dwyer-Lindgren, Laura, Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, and Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease HIV
- Subjects
Male ,Latin Americans ,lcsh:Medicine ,LOW-INCOME ,HIV Infections ,HIV mortality ,HIV/AIDS ,Latin America ,Mapping ,Small area estimation ,Spatial statistics ,Vital registration ,Vital registrations ,0302 clinical medicine ,ANTIRETROVIRAL THERAPY ,Medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Registries ,11 Medical and Health Sciences ,media_common ,Mortality rate ,1. No poverty ,DEATH ,Regression analysis ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,BRAZIL ,Local Burden of Disease HIV Collaborators ,3. Good health ,AIDS ,SEX ,A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified ,Female ,HEALTH ,0305 other medical science ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,Research Article ,Adult ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Inequality ,Adolescent ,media_common.quotation_subject ,TUBERCULOSIS ,Small area estimations ,03 medical and health sciences ,Medicine, General & Internal ,Sex Factors ,Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) ,HIV mortalities ,General & Internal Medicine ,Humans ,Aged ,Science & Technology ,030505 public health ,business.industry ,Public health ,lcsh:R ,Ecological study ,HIV ,Bayes Theorem ,GLOBAL BURDEN ,medicine.disease ,TRENDS ,Vital Statistics ,Spatial statistic ,3121 General medicine, internal medicine and other clinical medicine ,Human medicine ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.
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- 2021
30. Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
- Author
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Lauren E. Schaeffer, Belay Tessema, Reza Malekzadeh, Olatunde Aremu, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Milena M Santric Milicevic, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Azeem Majeed, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Jalal Arabloo, Philimon Gona, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri, Mostafa Qorbani, Fatemeh Rajati, Ipsita Sutradhar, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Babak Eshrati, Olufemi Ajumobi, Lauren Woyczynski, Parul Puri, Vinay Nangia, Guoqing Hu, Yousef Khader, Suzanne Barker-Collo, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Félix Carvalho, Yun Jin Kim, Moslem Soofi, Ali Bijani, Shanshan Li, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Arya Haj-Mirzaian, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Farnam Mohebi, Mohamad-Hani Temsah, Kala M. Mehta, Simon I. Hay, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Sanjay Zodpey, Tuomo J. Meretoja, Ireneous N. Soyiri, Bach Xuan Tran, George C Patton, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Engida Yisma, Vasily Vlassov, Samer Hamidi, Ghulam Mustafa, André Faro, Eduarda Fernandes, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Rajat Gupta, Shirin Djalalinia, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Juan Sanabria, Leonardo Roever, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Samad Azari, Vahid Alipour, Gabrielle B. Britton, Luca Ronfani, Rosario Cárdenas, Maarten J. Postma, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Pn Sylaja, Brijesh Sathian, Paul S. F. Yip, Vegard Skirbekk, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Paramjit Gill, Walter Mendoza, Lorenzo Monasta, Dara K. Mohammad, Naznin Hossain, Dhirendra N Sinha, Ali H. Mokdad, Aziz Rezapour, Megan F. Schipp, Ziyad Al-Aly, Takeshi Fukumoto, Kebede Deribe, Paula Moraga, Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan, Ai Koyanagi, Andre M. N. Renzaho, Cyrus Cooper, Ghobad Moradi, Ruth W Kimokoti, Swayam Prakash, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Emmanuela Gakidou, Mahdi Afshari, Suleman Atique, Reza Majdzadeh, Kiomars Sharafi, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Foad Abd-Allah, Zahid A Butt, Beruk Berhanu Desalegn, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Marek Majdan, Yoshan Moodley, Jianrong Zhang, Farid Najafi, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Benn Sartorius, Amber Sligar, Nicole Davis Weaver, Naohiro Yonemoto, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Neeraj Bedi, Suraj Bhattarai, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Bernardo Hernández Prado, Masood Ali Shaikh, Khalid A Altirkawi, Carlos Rios-Gonzalez, Claudiu Herteliu, Jason B. Hall, Irina Filip, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Nathaniel J Henry, Eleonora Dubljanin, Jasvinder A. Singh, Pushpendra Kumar, Akram Pourshams, Jung-Chen Chang, Irfan Ullah, Lorainne Tudor Car, Franz Castro, George A. Mensah, Delia Hendrie, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Jaifred Christian F. Lopez, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Lee Ling Lim, Charles D.A. Wolfe, Adnan Kisa, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Alaa Badawi, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Tomohide Yamada, Gholamreza Roshandel, Jonathan F. Mosser, Jose A. Garcia, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Mohammadreza Amiresmaili, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Yuan-Pang Wang, Sebastian Vollmer, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Paul H. Lee, Michael Collison, Sanghamitra Pati, Aziz Sheikh, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Anthony Barnett, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Michael A. Cork, Meghnath Dhimal, Norberto Perico, Francesco Saverio Violante, Daniel N. Kiirithio, Ted R. Miller, Arundhati R. Sawant, Olalekan A. Uthman, Kewal Krishan, Ashish Awasthi, Anthony Masaka, Katherine F. Wilson, Padukudru Anand Mahesh, Roy Burstein, Amir Kasaeian, Yuming Guo, Peter Nyasulu, Chuanhua Yu, Pascual R. Valdez, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Vipin Gupta, Tomislav Mestrovic, Long Hoang Nguyen, Neda Izadi, Faris Lami, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Azin Nahvijou, Jun She, Christopher J L Murray, Krishna K. Aryal, Payman Salamati, Mona M. Khater, Rajeev Gupta, Robert Reiner, Mustafa Z. Younis, Ali Rostami, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Obinna Onwujekwe, Manasi Kumar, Nafis Sadat, Nahla Anber, Joan B. Soriano, Victor Adekanmbi, John C. Wilkinson, Babak Moazen, Andrew T Olagunju, Nicholas Graetz, Andualem Henok, Mina Anjomshoa, Boris Bikbov, Melaku Desta, Yahya Safari, Jan-Walter De Neve, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Mohammad Fareed, Ayman Grada, Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo, Rajesh Sharma, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Enrico Rubagotti, John S. Ji, Mika Shigematsu, Fakher Rahim, Randah R. Hamadeh, G. K. Mini, Yasir Waheed, Meghdad Pirsaheb, Yousef Veisani, Daniel Diaz, Adrian Pana, Salman Rawaf, Ehsan Sadeghi, Yahya Salimi, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, David M. Pigott, Fares Alahdab, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Tomi Akinyemiju, Damaris K. Kinyoki, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Ziad El-Khatib, Abdallah M. Samy, Roman Topor-Madry, Farah Daoud, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Aubrey J. Levine, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Ravi Prakash Jha, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, Shafiu Mohammed, Simon Øverland, David Laith Rawaf, Arvin Haj-Mirzaian, Satar Rezaei, Oladimeji Adebayo, Nasir Salam, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Rajesh Sagar, Alex Yeshaneh, Michael K. Hole, Agus Sudaryanto, Yunquan Zhang, Mahbobeh Faramarzi, Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, Aniruddha Deshpande, Soewarta Kosen, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mehedi Hasan, Shane D. Morrison, Erkin M. Mirrakhimov, Marcel Ausloos, Ionut Negoi, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Giang Thu Vu, Lucas Earl, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Yu Liao, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Tanuj Kanchan, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Lidia Morawska, Tiffany K. Gill, Manisha Dubey, David C. Schwebel, Jost B. Jonas, Ester Cerin, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Florian Fischer, Stefan Listl, Benjamin K. Mayala, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Soraya Siabani, Derrick A Bennett, Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Educational Attainment, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, Helsinki University Hospital Area, University of Helsinki, Local Burden Dis Educ Attainment C, Graetz N., Woyczynski L., Wilson K.F., Hall J.B., Abate K.H., Abd-Allah F., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Afshari M., Ajumobi O., Akinyemiju T., Alahdab F., Al-Aly Z., Rabanal J.E.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alipour V., Altirkawi K., Amiresmaili M., Anber N.H., Andrei C.L., Anjomshoa M., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Aremu O., Aryal K.K., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Atique S., Ausloos M., Awasthi A., Quintanilla B.P.A., Azari S., Badawi A., Banoub J.A.M., Barker-Collo S.L., Barnett A., Bedi N., Bennett D.A., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattacharyya K., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bikbov B., Britton G., Burstein R., Butt Z.A., Cardenas R., Carvalho F., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Castro F., Cerin E., Chang J.-C., Collison M.L., Cooper C., Cork M.A., Daoud F., Das Gupta R., Weaver N.D., De Neve J.-W., Deribe K., Desalegn B.B., Deshpande A., Desta M., Dhimal M., Diaz D., Dinberu M.T., Djalalinia S., Dubey M., Dubljanin E., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Kalan M.E., El-Khatib Z., Eshrati B., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Faro A., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes E., Filip I., Fischer F., Fukumoto T., Garcia J.A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Grada A., Guo Y., Gupta R., Gupta V., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hamadeh R.R., Hamidi S., Hasan M., Hassen H.Y., Hendrie D., Henok A., Henry N.J., Prado B.H., Herteliu C., Hole M.K., Hossain N., Hosseinzadeh M., Hu G., Ilesanmi O.S., Irvani S.S.N., Islam S.M.S., Izadi N., Jakovljevic M., Jha R.P., Ji J.S., Jonas J.B., Shushtari Z.J., Jozwiak J.J., Kanchan T., Kasaeian A., Karyani A.K., Keiyoro P.N., Kesavachandran C.N., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khan E.A., Khater M.M., Kiadaliri A.A., Kiirithio D.N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kosen S., Koyanagi A., Krishan K., Defo B.K., Kumar M., Kumar P., Lami F.H., Lee P.H., Levine A.J., Li S., Liao Y., Lim L.-L., Listl S., Lopez J.C.F., Majdan M., Majdzadeh R., Majeed A., Malekzadeh R., Mansournia M.A., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Mayala B.K., Mehta K.M., Mendoza W., Mensah G.A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Mini G.K., Mirrakhimov E.M., Moazen B., Mohammad D.K., Darwesh A.M., Mohammed S., Mohebi F., Mokdad A.H., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Morrison S.D., Mosser J.F., Mousavi S.M., Murray C.J.L., Mustafa G., Nahvijou A., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Ngunjiri J.W., Nguyen C.T., Nguyen L.H., Ningrum D.N.A., Noubiap J.J., Shiadeh M.N., Nyasulu P.S., Ogbo F.A., Olagunju A.T., Olusanya B.O., Olusanya J.O., Onwujekwe O.E., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz-Panozo E., Overland S., Mahesh P.A., Pana A., Panda-Jonas S., Pati S., Patton G.C., Perico N., Pigott D.M., Pirsaheb M., Postma M.J., Pourshams A., Prakash S., Puri P., Qorbani M., Radfar A., Rahim F., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahman M.H.U., Rajati F., Ranabhat C.L., Rawaf D.L., Rawaf S., Reiner R.C., Remuzzi G., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezaei S., Rezapour A., Rios-Gonzalez C., Roever L., Ronfani L., Roshandel G., Rostami A., Rubagotti E., Sadat N., Sadeghi E., Safari Y., Sagar R., Salam N., Salamati P., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Samy A.M., Sanabria J., Santric Milicevic M.M., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Sawant A.R., Schaeffer L.E., Schipp M.F., Schwebel D.C., Senbeta A.M., Sepanlou S.G., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sharma R., She J., Sheikh A., Shigematsu M., Siabani S., Silveira D.G.A., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Skirbekk V., Sligar A., Sobaih B.H., Soofi M., Soriano J.B., Soyiri I.N., Sreeramareddy C.T., Sudaryanto A., Babale Sufiyan M., Sutradhar I., Sylaja P., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tadesse B.T., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema B., Tessema Z.T., Thankappan K.R., Topor-Madry R., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Car L.T., Ullah I., Uthman O.A., Valdez P.R., Veisani Y., Violante F.S., Vlassov V., Vollmer S., Thu Vu G., Waheed Y., Wang Y.-P., Wilkinson J.C., Winkler A.S., Wolfe C.D.A., Yamada T., Yeshaneh A., Yip P., Yisma E., Yonemoto N., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yu C., Bin Zaman S., Zhang J., Zhang Y., Zodpey S., Gakidou E., Hay S.I., Graetz, Nicholas, Woyczynski, Lauren, Wilson, Katherine F, Hall, Jason B, Yisma, Engida, Hay, Simon I, Local Burden of Disease Educational Attainment Collaborators, Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), and Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE)
- Subjects
Male ,ATTAINMENT ,Health Status ,Disease ,education ,low- and middle-income countries ,0302 clinical medicine ,WORLD ,gender ,Global health ,risk factors ,030212 general & internal medicine ,Aetiology ,10. No inequality ,media_common ,Developing world ,Pediatric ,Multidisciplinary ,1. No poverty ,Multidisciplinary Sciences ,Geography ,Science & Technology - Other Topics ,Female ,HEALTH ,developing world ,social and economic factors ,Engineering sciences. Technology ,disparitie ,AFRICA ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Inequality ,General Science & Technology ,media_common.quotation_subject ,MODELS ,Developing country ,Local Burden of Disease Educational Attainment Collaborators ,Article ,Healthcare improvement science Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 18] ,Education ,03 medical and health sciences ,2.3 Psychological ,medicine ,Humans ,Society ,Social determinants of health ,Developing Countries ,Science & Technology ,Equity (economics) ,MORTALITY ,Public health ,Bayes Theorem ,Educational attainment ,3141 Health care science ,society ,Good Health and Well Being ,Risk factors ,Socioeconomic Factors ,Demographic economics ,030217 neurology & neurosurgery - Abstract
Educational attainment is an important social determinant of maternal, newborn, and child health1–3. As a tool for promoting gender equity, it has gained increasing traction in popular media, international aid strategies, and global agenda-setting4–6. The global health agenda is increasingly focused on evidence of precision public health, which illustrates the subnational distribution of disease and illness7,8; however, an agenda focused on future equity must integrate comparable evidence on the distribution of social determinants of health9–11. Here we expand on the available precision SDG evidence by estimating the subnational distribution of educational attainment, including the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling, across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017. Previous analyses have focused on geographical disparities in average attainment across Africa or for specific countries, but—to our knowledge—no analysis has examined the subnational proportions of individuals who completed specific levels of education across all low- and middle-income countries12–14. By geolocating subnational data for more than 184 million person-years across 528 data sources, we precisely identify inequalities across geography as well as within populations., Analyses of the proportions of individuals who have completed key levels of schooling across all low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2017 reveal inequalities across countries as well as within populations.
- Published
- 2020
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31. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
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Sepanlou, Kebede Deribe, Junaid Khan, Mohammad Aghaali, Lalit Dandona, Masoud Moradi, Molly R Nixon, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Suraj Bhattarai, Yared Belete Belay, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Abbas Balouchi, Silvano Gallus, Mohammad Abdollahi, Long Hoang Nguyen, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Mehdi Naderi, Bernhard T. Baune, Lucas Earl, Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Farkhonde Salehi, Hamed Kalani, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Lee Ling Lim, Ulrich O Mueller, Laurie B. Marczak, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Ehsan Ahmadpour, Navid Rabiee, Dinh-Toi Chu, Vasily Vlassov, Bradford D Gessner, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Sorin Hostiuc, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi, Takahiro Tabuchi, Philimon Gona, Bahar Ataeinia, Azra Ramezankhani, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Obinna Onwujekwe, Zohreh Rahimi, Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi, Wagaye Fentahun Chanie, Neda Kianipour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Dhirendra N Sinha, Young-Ho Khang, Paula Moraga, Manoochehr Karami, Solomon Olum, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Amir Radfar, Kiomars Sharafi, Rohollah Kalhor, Benjamin K. Mayala, Mahmood Moosazadeh, David C. Schwebel, Jost B. Jonas, Quyen G. To, Ester Cerin, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Groningen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD (GRIAC), Veritati - Repositório Institucional da Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Department of Earth Observation Science, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, UT-I-ITC-ACQUAL, GeoHealth, HUS Neurocenter, Department of Neurosciences, Neurologian yksikkö, Clinicum, HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Staff Services, Department of Surgery, University of Helsinki, Islam, Nazrul [0000-0003-3982-4325], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Burstein R., Henry N.J., Collison M.L., Marczak L.B., Sligar A., Watson S., Marquez N., Abbasalizad-Farhangi M., Abbasi M., Abd-Allah F., Abdoli A., Abdollahi M., Abdollahpour I., Abdulkader R.S., Abrigo M.R.M., Acharya D., Adebayo O.M., Adekanmbi V., Adham D., Afshari M., Aghaali M., Ahmadi K., Ahmadi M., Ahmadpour E., Ahmed R., Akal C.G., Akinyemi J.O., Alahdab F., Alam N., Alamene G.M., Alene K.A., Alijanzadeh M., Alinia C., Alipour V., Aljunid S.M., Almalki M.J., Al-Mekhlafi H.M., Altirkawi K., Alvis-Guzman N., Amegah A.K., Amini S., Amit A.M.L., Anbari Z., Androudi S., Anjomshoa M., Ansari F., Antonio C.A.T., Arabloo J., Arefi Z., Aremu O., Armoon B., Arora A., Artaman A., Asadi A., Asadi-Aliabadi M., Ashraf-Ganjouei A., Assadi R., Ataeinia B., Atre S.R., Quintanilla B.P.A., Ayanore M.A., Azari S., Babaee E., Babazadeh A., Badawi A., Bagheri S., Bagherzadeh M., Baheiraei N., Balouchi A., Barac A., Bassat Q., Baune B.T., Bayati M., Bedi N., Beghi E., Behzadifar M., Belay Y.B., Bell B., Bell M.L., Berbada D.A., Bernstein R.S., Bhattacharjee N.V., Bhattarai S., Bhutta Z.A., Bijani A., Bohlouli S., Breitborde N.J.K., Britton G., Browne A.J., Nagaraja S.B., Busse R., Butt Z.A., Car J., Cardenas R., Castaneda-Orjuela C.A., Cerin E., Chanie W.F., Chatterjee P., Chu D.-T., Cooper C., Costa V.M., Dalal K., Dandona L., Dandona R., Daoud F., Daryani A., Das Gupta R., Davis I., Davis Weaver N., Davitoiu D.V., De Neve J.-W., Demeke F.M., Demoz G.T., Deribe K., Desai R., Deshpande A., Desyibelew H.D., Dey S., Dharmaratne S.D., Dhimal M., Diaz D., Doshmangir L., Duraes A.R., Dwyer-Lindgren L., Earl L., Ebrahimi R., Ebrahimpour S., Effiong A., Eftekhari A., Ehsani-Chimeh E., El Sayed I., El Sayed Zaki M., El Tantawi M., El-Khatib Z., Emamian M.H., Enany S., Eskandarieh S., Eyawo O., Ezalarab M., Faramarzi M., Fareed M., Faridnia R., Faro A., Fazaeli A.A., Fazlzadeh M., Fentahun N., Fereshtehnejad S.-M., Fernandes J.C., Filip I., Fischer F., Foigt N.A., Foroutan M., Francis J.M., Fukumoto T., Fullman N., Gallus S., Gebre D.G., Gebrehiwot T.T., Gebremeskel G.G., Gessner B.D., Geta B., Gething P.W., Ghadimi R., Ghadiri K., Ghajarzadeh M., Ghashghaee A., Gill P.S., Gill T.K., Golding N., Gomes N.G.M., Gona P.N., Gopalani S.V., Gorini G., Goulart B.N.G., Graetz N., Greaves F., Green M.S., Guo Y., Haj-Mirzaian A., Hall B.J., Hamidi S., Haririan H., Haro J.M., Hasankhani M., Hasanpoor E., Hasanzadeh A., Hassankhani H., Hassen H.Y., Hegazy M.I., Hendrie D., Heydarpour F., Hird T.R., Hoang C.L., Hollerich G., Rad E.H., Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M., Hossain N., Hosseini M., Hosseinzadeh M., Hostiuc M., Hostiuc S., Househ M., Hsairi M., Ilesanmi O.S., Imani-Nasab M.H., Iqbal U., Irvani S.S.N., Islam N., Islam S.M.S., Jurisson M., Balalami N.J., Jalali A., Javidnia J., Jayatilleke A.U., Jenabi E., Ji J.S., Jobanputra Y.B., Johnson K., Jonas J.B., Shushtari Z.J., Jozwiak J.J., Kabir A., Kahsay A., Kalani H., Kalhor R., Karami M., Karki S., Kasaeian A., Kassebaum N.J., Keiyoro P.N., Kemp G.R., Khabiri R., Khader Y.S., Khafaie M.A., Khan E.A., Khan J., Khan M.S., Khang Y.-H., Khatab K., Khater A., Khater M.M., Khatony A., Khazaei M., Khazaei S., Khazaei-Pool M., Khubchandani J., Kianipour N., Kim Y.J., Kimokoti R.W., Kinyoki D.K., Kisa A., Kisa S., Kolola T., Kosen S., Koul P.A., Koyanagi A., Kraemer M.U.G., Krishan K., Krohn K.J., Kugbey N., Kumar G.A., Kumar M., Kumar P., Kuupiel D., Lacey B., Lad S.D., Lami F.H., Larsson A.O., Lee P.H., Leili M., Levine A.J., Li S., Lim L.-L., Listl S., Longbottom J., Lopez J.C.F., Lorkowski S., Magdeldin S., Abd El Razek H.M., Abd El Razek M.M., Majeed A., Maleki A., Malekzadeh R., Malta D.C., Mamun A.A., Manafi N., Manda A.-L., Mansourian M., Martins-Melo F.R., Masaka A., Massenburg B.B., Maulik P.K., Mayala B.K., Mazidi M., McKee M., Mehrotra R., Mehta K.M., Meles G.G., Mendoza W., Menezes R.G., Meretoja A., Meretoja T.J., Mestrovic T., Miller T.R., Miller-Petrie M.K., Mills E.J., Milne G.J., Mini G.K., Mir S.M., Mirjalali H., Mirrakhimov E.M., Mohamadi E., Mohammad D.K., Darwesh A.M., Mezerji N.M.G., Mohammed A.S., Mohammed S., Mokdad A.H., Molokhia M., Monasta L., Moodley Y., Moosazadeh M., Moradi G., Moradi M., Moradi Y., Moradi-Lakeh M., Moradinazar M., Moraga P., Morawska L., Mosapour A., Mousavi S.M., Mueller U.O., Muluneh A.G., Mustafa G., Nabavizadeh B., Naderi M., Nagarajan A.J., Nahvijou A., Najafi F., Nangia V., Ndwandwe D.E., Neamati N., Negoi I., Negoi R.I., Ngunjiri J.W., Thi Nguyen H.L., Nguyen L.H., Nguyen S.H., Nielsen K.R., Ningrum D.N.A., Nirayo Y.L., Nixon M.R., Nnaji C.A., Nojomi M., Noroozi M., Nosratnejad S., Noubiap J.J., Motlagh S.N., Ofori-Asenso R., Ogbo F.A., Oladimeji K.E., Olagunju A.T., Olfatifar M., Olum S., Olusanya B.O., Oluwasanu M.M., Onwujekwe O.E., Oren E., Ortega-Altamirano D.D.V., Ortiz A., Osarenotor O., Osei F.B., Osgood-Zimmerman A.E., Otstavnov S.S., Owolabi M.O., Mahesh P.A., Pagheh A.S., Pakhale S., Panda-Jonas S., Pandey A., Park E.-K., Parsian H., Pashaei T., Patel S.K., Pepito V.C.F., Pereira A., Perkins S., Pickering B.V., Pilgrim T., Pirestani M., Piroozi B., Pirsaheb M., Plana-Ripoll O., Pourjafar H., Puri P., Qorbani M., Quintana H., Rabiee M., Rabiee N., Radfar A., Rafiei A., Rahim F., Rahimi Z., Rahimi-Movaghar V., Rahimzadeh S., Rajati F., Raju S.B., Ramezankhani A., Ranabhat C.L., Rasella D., Rashedi V., Rawal L., Reiner Jr R.C., Renzaho A.M.N., Rezaei S., Rezapour A., Riahi S.M., Ribeiro A.I., Roever L., Roro E.M., Roser M., Roshandel G., Roshani D., Rostami A., Rubagotti E., Rubino S., Sabour S., Sadat N., Sadeghi E., Saeedi R., Safari Y., Safari-Faramani R., Safdarian M., Sahebkar A., Salahshoor M.R., Salam N., Salamati P., Salehi F., Zahabi S.S., Salimi Y., Salimzadeh H., Salomon J.A., Sambala E.Z., Samy A.M., Santric Milicevic M.M., Jose B.P.S., Saraswathy S.Y.I., Sarmiento-Suarez R., Sartorius B., Sathian B., Saxena S., Sbarra A.N., Schaeffer L.E., Schwebel D.C., Sepanlou S.G., Seyedmousavi S., Shaahmadi F., Shaikh M.A., Shams-Beyranvand M., Shamshirian A., Shamsizadeh M., Sharafi K., Sharif M., Sharif-Alhoseini M., Sharifi H., Sharma J., Sharma R., Sheikh A., Shields C., Shigematsu M., Shiri R., Shiue I., Shuval K., Siddiqi T.J., Silva J.P., Singh J.A., Sinha D.N., Sisay M.M., Sisay S., Sliwa K., Smith D.L., Somayaji R., Soofi M., Soriano J.B., Sreeramareddy C.T., Sudaryanto A., Sufiyan M.B., Sykes B.L., Sylaja P.N., Tabares-Seisdedos R., Tabb K.M., Tabuchi T., Taveira N., Temsah M.-H., Terkawi A.S., Tessema Z.T., Thankappan K.R., Thirunavukkarasu S., To Q.G., Tovani-Palone M.R., Tran B.X., Tran K.B., Ullah I., Usman M.S., Uthman O.A., Vahedian-Azimi A., Valdez P.R., van Boven J.F.M., Vasankari T.J., Vasseghian Y., Veisani Y., Venketasubramanian N., Violante F.S., Vladimirov S.K., Vlassov V., Vos T., Vu G.T., Vujcic I.S., Waheed Y., Wakefield J., Wang H., Wang Y., Wang Y.-P., Ward J.L., Weintraub R.G., Weldegwergs K.G., Weldesamuel G.T., Westerman R., Wiysonge C.S., Wondafrash D.Z., Woyczynski L., Wu A.-M., Xu G., Yadegar A., Yamada T., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Yilgwan C.S., Yip P., Yonemoto N., Lebni J.Y., Younis M.Z., Yousefifard M., Yousof H.-A.S.A., Yu C., Yusefzadeh H., Zabeh E., Moghadam T.Z., Bin Zaman S., Zamani M., Zandian H., Zangeneh A., Zerfu T.A., Zhang Y., Ziapour A., Zodpey S., Murray C.J.L., and Hay S.I.
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Survival ,RJ101 ,Mortalidad Infantil ,HB ,UNDER-5 MORTALITY ,Global Health ,Pediatrics ,0302 clinical medicine ,3123 Gynaecology and paediatrics ,Child death ,Infant Mortality ,Epidemiology ,Global health ,Middle income country ,Nacimiento vivo ,030212 general & internal medicine ,10. No inequality ,Child ,POPULATION ,Developing world ,education.field_of_study ,Public health ,Multidisciplinary ,Geography ,Mortality rate ,wa_900 ,1. No poverty ,SUCCESS ,Pediatrik ,A900 Others in Medicine and Dentistry ,3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health ,3. Good health ,Child Mortality ,Death children ,VACCINATION ,HEALTH ,ws_100 ,INTERVENTIONS ,AFRICA ,medicine.medical_specialty ,United Nations ,General Science & Technology ,030231 tropical medicine ,Population ,Developing country ,Article ,Healthcare improvement science Radboud Institute for Health Sciences [Radboudumc 18] ,ITC-HYBRID ,03 medical and health sciences ,All institutes and research themes of the Radboud University Medical Center ,Social Justice ,Recién nacido ,Neonatal deaths ,medicine ,SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS ,Organizational Objectives ,Humans ,education ,Developing Countries ,business.industry ,Infant, Newborn ,Infant ,CIVIL REGISTRATION ,Paediatrics ,Child survival ,Newborn ,PREVENTION ,Infant mortality ,wa_320 ,ws_200 ,Child mortality ,Socioeconomic Factors ,ITC-ISI-JOURNAL-ARTICLE ,Human medicine ,Paediatrics, Public health, Developing world ,business ,Demography - Abstract
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations., A high-resolution, global atlas of mortality of children under five years of age between 2000 and 2017 highlights subnational geographical inequalities in the distribution, rates and absolute counts of child deaths by age.
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- 2019
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32. Ten Americas: a systematic analysis of life expectancy disparities in the USA.
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Baumann MM, Li Z, Kelly YO, Schmidt C, Searchinger C, La Motte-Kerr W, Bollyky TJ, Mokdad AH, and Murray CJ
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Background: Nearly two decades ago, the Eight Americas study offered a novel lens for examining health inequities in the USA by partitioning the US population into eight groups based on geography, race, urbanicity, income per capita, and homicide rate. That study found gaps of 12·8 years for females and 15·4 years for males in life expectancy in 2001 across these eight groups. In this study, we aimed to update and expand the original Eight Americas study, examining trends in life expectancy from 2000 to 2021 for ten Americas (analogues to the original eight, plus two additional groups comprising the US Latino population), by year, sex, and age group., Methods: In this systematic analysis, we defined ten mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive Americas comprising the entire US population, starting with all combinations of county and race and ethnicity, and assigning each to one of the ten Americas based on race and ethnicity and a variable combination of geographical location, metropolitan status, income, and Black-White residential segregation. We adjusted deaths from the National Vital Statistics System to account for misreporting of race and ethnicity on death certificates. We then tabulated deaths from the National Vital Statistics System and population estimates from the US Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2021, by America, year, sex, and age, and calculated age-specific mortality rates in each of these strata. Finally, we constructed abridged life tables for each America, year, and sex, and extracted life expectancy at birth, partial life expectancy within five age groups (0-4, 5-24, 25-44, 45-64, and 65-84 years), and remaining life expectancy at age 85 years., Findings: We defined the ten Americas as: America 1-Asian individuals; America 2-Latino individuals in other counties; America 3-White (majority), Asian, and American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) individuals in other counties; America 4-White individuals in non-metropolitan and low-income Northlands; America 5-Latino individuals in the Southwest; America 6-Black individuals in other counties; America 7-Black individuals in highly segregated metropolitan areas; America 8-White individuals in low-income Appalachia and Lower Mississippi Valley; America 9-Black individuals in the non-metropolitan and low-income South; and America 10-AIAN individuals in the West. Large disparities in life expectancy between the Americas were apparent throughout the study period but grew more substantial over time, particularly during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2000, life expectancy ranged 12·6 years (95% uncertainty interval 12·2-13·1), from 70·5 years (70·3-70·7) for America 9 to 83·1 years (82·7-83·5) for America 1. The gap between Americas with the lowest and highest life expectancies increased to 13·9 years (12·6-15·2) in 2010, 15·8 years (14·4-17·1) in 2019, 18·9 years (17·7-20·2) in 2020, and 20·4 years (19·0-21·8) in 2021. The trends over time in life expectancy varied by America, leading to changes in the ordering of the Americas over this time period. America 10 was the only America to experience substantial declines in life expectancy from 2000 to 2019, and experienced the largest declines from 2019 to 2021. The three Black Americas (Americas 6, 7, and 9) all experienced relatively large increases in life expectancy before 2020, and thus all three had higher life expectancy than America 10 by 2006, despite starting at a lower level in 2000. By 2010, the increase in America 6 was sufficient to also overtake America 8, which had a relatively flat trend from 2000 to 2019. America 5 had relatively similar life expectancy to Americas 3 and 4 in 2000, but a faster rate of increase in life expectancy from 2000 to 2019, and thus higher life expectancy in 2019; however, America 5 experienced a much larger decline in 2020, reversing this advantage. In some cases, these trends varied substantially by sex and age group. There were also large differences in income and educational attainment among the ten Americas, but the patterns in these variables differed from each other and from the patterns in life expectancy in some notable ways. For example, America 3 had the highest income in most years, and the highest proportion of high-school graduates in all years, but was ranked fourth or fifth in life expectancy before 2020., Interpretation: Our analysis confirms the continued existence of different Americas within the USA. One's life expectancy varies dramatically depending on where one lives, the economic conditions in that location, and one's racial and ethnic identity. This gulf was large at the beginning of the century, only grew larger over the first two decades, and was dramatically exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. These results underscore the vital need to reduce the massive inequity in longevity in the USA, as well as the benefits of detailed analyses of the interacting drivers of health disparities to fully understand the nature of the problem. Such analyses make targeted action possible-local planning and national prioritisation and resource allocation-to address the root causes of poor health for those most disadvantaged so that all Americans can live long, healthy lives, regardless of where they live and their race, ethnicity, or income., Funding: State of Washington, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
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- 2024
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33. Disparities in wellbeing in the USA by race and ethnicity, age, sex, and location, 2008-21: an analysis using the Human Development Index.
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Kendrick P, Baumann MM, Li Z, Schmidt C, Sylte DO, Daoud F, La Motte-Kerr W, Aldridge RW, Bisignano C, Hay SI, Mokdad AH, and Murray CJL
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Background: The Human Development Index (HDI)-a composite metric encompassing a population's life expectancy, education, and income-is used widely for assessing and comparing human development and wellbeing at the country level, but does not account for within-country inequality. In this study of the USA, we aimed to adapt the HDI framework to measure the HDI at an individual level to examine disparities in the distribution of wellbeing by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and geographical location., Methods: We used individual-level data on adults aged 25 years and older from the 2008-21 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample. We extracted information on race and ethnicity, age, sex, location (Public Use Microdata Areas), educational attainment, and household income and size. We merged these data with estimated life tables by race and ethnicity, sex, age, location (county), and year, generated using Bayesian small-area estimation models applied to death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System. For each individual in the ACS, we used these combined data to estimate years of education, household consumption, and expected lifespan; converted each of these three features into an index using a percentile score; and calculated the HDI as the geometric mean of these three indices. Finally, we grouped individuals into yearly HDI deciles., Findings: Years of education, household consumption, and expected lifespan-and thus the HDI-varied considerably among adults in the USA during the 2008-21 period. For most race and ethnicity and sex groups, the mean HDI increased gradually from 2008 to 2019, then declined in 2020 due to declines in expected lifespan, although there were systematic differences in the distribution of the HDI by race and ethnicity and sex. In the lowest HDI decile, there was over-representation (ie, >10% of the total population of a given race and ethnicity and sex group) of American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) males (50% [SE 0·2] in decile, mean annual population in decile 0·37 million [SE 0·002]), Black males (40% [<0·1], 4·67 million [0·006]), AIAN females (23% [0·1], 0·19 million [0·001]), Latino males (21% [<0·1], 3·27 million [0·006]), Black females (14% [<0·1], 1·86 million [0·004]), and Latina females (13% [<0·1], 2·07 million [0·006]). Given differences in total population size, however, White males were the largest population group in the lowest decile (27% [<0·1] of the lowest decile, 5·87 million [0·012]), followed by Black males (22% [<0·1]) and Latino males (15% [<0·1]). There were notable differences in these patterns by age group: for example, for the 25-44 years age group, the lowest HDI decile had even greater over-representation of AIAN males (66% [0·2] in decile, 0·22 million [0·001]) and Black males (46% [<0·1], 2·52 million [0·005]) than the 85 years and older age group (22% [1·1], <0·01 million [<0·001]; and 20% [0·3], 0·03 million [<0·001]). By contrast, the lowest decile had an under-representation of Asian females (2% [<0·1], 0·06 million [<0·001]) in the 25-44 years age group, but an over-representation in the 85 years and older age group (25% [0·3], 0·03 million [<0·001]). The lowest HDI decile for the 25-44 years age group was primarily male (76% [<0·1], 6·44 million [0·009]) whereas for age 85 years and older it was predominantly female (71% [0·1], 0·42 million [0·002]). In the highest HDI decile, shifts in the composition of the population by age were particularly large for White males, who made up 5% (0·1; 0·39 million [0·001]) of this decile in the 25-44 years age group, but 49% (0·2; 0·29 million [0·001]) in the 85 years and older age group. From 2012 to 2021, the proportion of the population living in the lowest HDI decile varied substantially by location, and a disproportionately high share of the population living in locations in much of the southern half of the USA, Appalachia, and Rust Belt states were in the lowest HDI decile., Interpretation: Substantial disparities in wellbeing exist within the USA and are heavily influenced by race and ethnicity (due to racism), sex, age, and geographical location. These disparities are not immutable, but improvement is not a given, and gains can be fleeting in the face of a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustained action to ensure that everyone has meaningful access to a high-quality education, the means to earn a sufficient income, and the opportunity to live a long and healthy life is needed to reduce these disparities and should focus on the populations and locations that are worst off., Funding: State of Washington and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.)
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- 2024
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34. Trends in State-Level Maternal Mortality by Racial and Ethnic Group in the United States.
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Fleszar LG, Bryant AS, Johnson CO, Blacker BF, Aravkin A, Baumann M, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Kelly YO, Maass K, Zheng P, and Roth GA
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- Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Bayes Theorem, Ethnicity statistics & numerical data, Racial Groups ethnology, Racial Groups statistics & numerical data, United States epidemiology, Child, Adolescent, Young Adult, Adult, Middle Aged, Maternal Mortality ethnology, Maternal Mortality trends
- Abstract
Importance: Evidence suggests that maternal mortality has been increasing in the US. Comprehensive estimates do not exist. Long-term trends in maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) for all states by racial and ethnic groups were estimated., Objective: To quantify trends in MMRs (maternal deaths per 100 000 live births) by state for 5 mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups using a bayesian extension of the generalized linear model network., Design, Setting, and Participants: Observational study using vital registration and census data from 1999 to 2019 in the US. Pregnant or recently pregnant individuals aged 10 to 54 years were included., Main Outcomes and Measures: MMRs., Results: In 2019, MMRs in most states were higher among American Indian and Alaska Native and Black populations than among Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; Hispanic; and White populations. Between 1999 and 2019, observed median state MMRs increased from 14.0 (IQR, 5.7-23.9) to 49.2 (IQR, 14.4-88.0) among the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 26.7 (IQR, 18.3-32.9) to 55.4 (IQR, 31.6-74.5) among the Black population, 9.6 (IQR, 5.7-12.6) to 20.9 (IQR, 12.1-32.8) among the Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander population, 9.6 (IQR, 6.9-11.6) to 19.1 (IQR, 11.6-24.9) among the Hispanic population, and 9.4 (IQR, 7.4-11.4) to 26.3 (IQR, 20.3-33.3) among the White population. In each year between 1999 and 2019, the Black population had the highest median state MMR. The American Indian and Alaska Native population had the largest increases in median state MMRs between 1999 and 2019. Since 1999, the median of state MMRs has increased for all racial and ethnic groups in the US and the American Indian and Alaska Native; Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; and Black populations each observed their highest median state MMRs in 2019., Conclusion and Relevance: While maternal mortality remains unacceptably high among all racial and ethnic groups in the US, American Indian and Alaska Native and Black individuals are at increased risk, particularly in several states where these inequities had not been previously highlighted. Median state MMRs for the American Indian and Alaska Native and Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander populations continue to increase, even after the adoption of a pregnancy checkbox on death certificates. Median state MMR for the Black population remains the highest in the US. Comprehensive mortality surveillance for all states via vital registration identifies states and racial and ethnic groups with the greatest potential to improve maternal mortality. Maternal mortality persists as a source of worsening disparities in many US states and prevention efforts during this study period appear to have had a limited impact in addressing this health crisis.
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- 2023
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35. Mapping HIV prevalence in Nigeria using small area estimates to develop a targeted HIV intervention strategy.
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O'Brien-Carelli C, Steuben K, Stafford KA, Aliogo R, Alagi M, Johanns CK, Ibrahim J, Shiraishi R, Ehoche A, Greby S, Dirlikov E, Ibrahim D, Bronson M, Aliyu G, Aliyu S, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Swaminathan M, Duber HC, and Charurat M
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- Adult, Humans, Nigeria epidemiology, Prevalence, Viral Load, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, HIV Infections drug therapy, HIV Infections epidemiology, HIV Infections prevention & control
- Abstract
Objective: Although geographically specific data can help target HIV prevention and treatment strategies, Nigeria relies on national- and state-level estimates for policymaking and intervention planning. We calculated sub-state estimates along the HIV continuum of care in Nigeria., Design: Using data from the Nigeria HIV/AIDS Indicator and Impact Survey (NAIIS) (July-December 2018), we conducted a geospatial analysis estimating three key programmatic indicators: prevalence of HIV infection among adults (aged 15-64 years); antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among adults living with HIV; and viral load suppression (VLS) rate among adults living with HIV., Methods: We used an ensemble modeling method called stacked generalization to analyze available covariates and a geostatistical model to incorporate the output from stacking as well as spatial autocorrelation in the modeled outcomes. Separate models were fitted for each indicator. Finally, we produced raster estimates of each indicator on an approximately 5×5-km grid and estimates at the sub-state/local government area (LGA) and state level., Results: Estimates for all three indicators varied both within and between states. While state-level HIV prevalence ranged from 0.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.3%-0.5%]) to 4.3% (95% UI: 3.7%-4.9%), LGA prevalence ranged from 0.2% (95% UI: 0.1%-0.5%) to 8.5% (95% UI: 5.8%-12.2%). Although the range in ART coverage did not substantially differ at state level (25.6%-76.9%) and LGA level (21.9%-81.9%), the mean absolute difference in ART coverage between LGAs within states was 16.7 percentage points (range, 3.5-38.5 percentage points). States with large differences in ART coverage between LGAs also showed large differences in VLS-regardless of level of effective treatment coverage-indicating that state-level geographic targeting may be insufficient to address coverage gaps., Conclusion: Geospatial analysis across the HIV continuum of care can effectively highlight sub-state variation and identify areas that require further attention in order to achieve epidemic control. By generating local estimates, governments, donors, and other implementing partners will be better positioned to conduct targeted interventions and prioritize resource distribution., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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- 2022
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36. Trends and patterns of disparities in diabetes and chronic kidney disease mortality among US counties, 1980-2014.
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Mokdad AH, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, Morozoff C, Shirude S, Finegold SB, Callender C, Naghavi M, and Murray CJL
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- Censuses, Female, Humans, Male, Mortality, Risk Factors, United States epidemiology, Diabetes Mellitus, Hypertension, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic
- Abstract
Introduction: Diabetes and chronic kidney diseases are associated with a large health burden in the USA and globally., Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease., Design and Setting: Validated small area estimation models were applied to de-identified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the census bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 from diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease (CKD)., Exposures: County of residence., Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates by county, year, sex, and cause., Results: Between 1980 and 2014, 2,067,805 deaths due to diabetes were recorded in the USA. The mortality rate due to diabetes increased by 33.6% (95% UI: 26.5%-41.3%) between 1980 and 2000 and then declined by 26.4% (95% UI: 22.8%-30.0%) between 2000 and 2014. Counties with very high mortality rates were found along the southern half of the Mississippi river and in parts of South and North Dakota, while very low rates were observed in central Colorado, and select counties in the Midwest, California, and southern Florida. A total of 1,659,045 deaths due to CKD were recorded between 1980 and 2014 (477,332 due to diabetes mellitus, 1,056,150 due to hypertension, 122,795 due to glomerulonephritis, and 2,768 due to other causes). CKD mortality varied among counties with very low mortality rates observed in central Colorado as well as some counties in southern Florida, California, and Great Plains states. High mortality rates from CKD were observed in counties throughout much of the Deep South, and a cluster of counties with particularly high rates was observed around the Mississippi river., Conclusions and Relevance: This study found large inequalities in diabetes and CKD mortality among US counties. The findings provide insights into the root causes of this variation and call for improvements in risk factors, access to medical care, and quality of medical care., (© 2022. The Author(s).)
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- 2022
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37. A spatiotemporal analysis of inequalities in life expectancy and 20 causes of mortality in sub-neighbourhoods of Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 1990-2016.
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Yu J, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bennett J, Ezzati M, Gustafson P, Tran M, and Brauer M
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- Bayes Theorem, British Columbia epidemiology, Female, Humans, Infant, Newborn, Male, Mortality, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Life Expectancy
- Abstract
Spatially varying baseline data can help identify and prioritise actions directed to determinants of intra-urban health inequalities. Twenty-seven years (1990-2016) of cause-specific mortality data in British Columbia, Canada were linked to three demographic data sources. Bayesian small area estimation models were used to estimate life expectancy (LE) at birth and 20 cause-specific mortality rates by sex and year. The gaps in LE for males and females ranged from 6.9 years to 9.5 years with widening inequality in more recent years. Inequality ratios increased for almost all causes, especially for HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections, maternal and neonatal disorders, and neoplasms., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
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- 2021
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38. Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Eaton JW, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Gutreuter S, O'Driscoll M, Stevens O, Bajaj S, Ashton R, Hill A, Russell E, Esra R, Dolan N, Anifowoshe YO, Woodbridge M, Fellows I, Glaubius R, Haeuser E, Okonek T, Stover J, Thomas ML, Wakefield J, Wolock TM, Berry J, Sabala T, Heard N, Delgado S, Jahn A, Kalua T, Chimpandule T, Auld A, Kim E, Payne D, Johnson LF, FitzJohn RG, Wanyeki I, Mahy MI, and Shiraishi RW
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- Adult, Anti-Retroviral Agents therapeutic use, Bayes Theorem, Female, Humans, Malawi epidemiology, Male, Pregnancy, Prevalence, Epidemics, HIV Infections drug therapy, HIV Infections epidemiology
- Abstract
Introduction: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups., Methods: Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018., Results: Adult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city., Conclusions: The Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.)
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- 2021
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39. US Health Care Spending by Race and Ethnicity, 2002-2016.
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Dieleman JL, Chen C, Crosby SW, Liu A, McCracken D, Pollock IA, Sahu M, Tsakalos G, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Haakenstad A, Mokdad AH, Roth GA, Scott KW, and Murray CJL
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- Health Care Surveys, Humans, United States, Ethnicity statistics & numerical data, Health Expenditures statistics & numerical data, Healthcare Disparities ethnology, Racial Groups statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Importance: Measuring health care spending by race and ethnicity is important for understanding patterns in utilization and treatment., Objective: To estimate, identify, and account for differences in health care spending by race and ethnicity from 2002 through 2016 in the US., Design, Setting, and Participants: This exploratory study included data from 7.3 million health system visits, admissions, or prescriptions captured in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2002-2016) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2002-2012), which were combined with the insured population and notified case estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (2002; 2016) and health care spending estimates from the Disease Expenditure project (1996-2016)., Exposure: Six mutually exclusive self-reported race and ethnicity groups., Main Outcomes and Measures: Total and age-standardized health care spending per person by race and ethnicity for each year from 2002 through 2016 by type of care. Health care spending per notified case by race and ethnicity for key diseases in 2016. Differences in health care spending across race and ethnicity groups were decomposed into differences in utilization rate vs differences in price and intensity of care., Results: In 2016, an estimated $2.4 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $2.4 trillion-$2.4 trillion) was spent on health care across the 6 types of care included in this study. The estimated age-standardized total health care spending per person in 2016 was $7649 (95% UI, $6129-$8814) for American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals; $4692 (95% UI, $4068-$5202) for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals; $7361 (95% UI, $6917-$7797) for Black (non-Hispanic) individuals; $6025 (95% UI, $5703-$6373) for Hispanic individuals; $9276 (95% UI, $8066-$10 601) for individuals categorized as multiple races (non-Hispanic); and $8141 (95% UI, $8038-$8258) for White (non-Hispanic) individuals, who accounted for an estimated 72% (95% UI, 71%-73%) of health care spending. After adjusting for population size and age, White individuals received an estimated 15% (95% UI, 13%-17%; P < .001) more spending on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Black (non-Hispanic) individuals received an estimated 26% (95% UI, 19%-32%; P < .001) less spending than the all-population mean on ambulatory care but received 19% (95% UI, 3%-32%; P = .02) more on inpatient and 12% (95% UI, 4%-24%; P = .04) more on emergency department care. Hispanic individuals received an estimated 33% (95% UI, 26%-37%; P < .001) less spending per person on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals received less spending than the all-population mean on all types of care except dental (all P < .001), while American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 90% more; 95% UI, 11%-165%; P = .04), and multiple-race (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 40% more; 95% UI, 19%-63%; P = .006). All 18 of the statistically significant race and ethnicity spending differences by type of care corresponded with differences in utilization. These differences persisted when controlling for underlying disease burden., Conclusions and Relevance: In the US from 2002 through 2016, health care spending varied by race and ethnicity across different types of care even after adjusting for age and health conditions. Further research is needed to determine current health care spending by race and ethnicity, including spending related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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- 2021
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40. Mapping male circumcision for HIV prevention efforts in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Cork MA, Wilson KF, Perkins S, Collison ML, Deshpande A, Eaton JW, Earl L, Haeuser E, Justman JE, Kinyoki DK, Mayala BK, Mosser JF, Murray CJL, Nkengasong JN, Piot P, Sartorius B, Schaeffer LE, Serfes AL, Sligar A, Steuben KM, Tanser FC, VanderHeide JD, Yang M, Wabiri N, Hay SI, and Dwyer-Lindgren L
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Africa, Female, HIV Infections epidemiology, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Young Adult, Circumcision, Male trends, HIV Infections prevention & control
- Abstract
Background: HIV remains the largest cause of disease burden among men and women of reproductive age in sub-Saharan Africa. Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces the risk of female-to-male transmission of HIV by 50-60%. The World Health Organization (WHO) and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) identified 14 priority countries for VMMC campaigns and set a coverage goal of 80% for men ages 15-49. From 2008 to 2017, over 18 million VMMCs were reported in priority countries. Nonetheless, relatively little is known about local variation in male circumcision (MC) prevalence., Methods: We analyzed geo-located MC prevalence data from 109 household surveys using a Bayesian geostatistical modeling framework to estimate adult MC prevalence and the number of circumcised and uncircumcised men aged 15-49 in 38 countries in sub-Saharan Africa at a 5 × 5-km resolution and among first administrative level (typically provinces or states) and second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units., Results: We found striking within-country and between-country variation in MC prevalence; most (12 of 14) priority countries had more than a twofold difference between their first administrative level units with the highest and lowest estimated prevalence in 2017. Although estimated national MC prevalence increased in all priority countries with the onset of VMMC campaigns, seven priority countries contained both subnational areas where estimated MC prevalence increased and areas where estimated MC prevalence decreased after the initiation of VMMC campaigns. In 2017, only three priority countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania) were likely to have reached the MC coverage target of 80% at the national level, and no priority country was likely to have reached this goal in all subnational areas., Conclusions: Despite MC prevalence increases in all priority countries since the onset of VMMC campaigns in 2008, MC prevalence remains below the 80% coverage target in most subnational areas and is highly variable. These mapped results provide an actionable tool for understanding local needs and informing VMMC interventions for maximum impact in the continued effort towards ending the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.
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- 2020
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41. Identifying residual hotspots and mapping lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality in African children from 2000 to 2017.
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Reiner RC, Welgan CA, Casey DC, Troeger CE, Baumann MM, Nguyen QP, Swartz SJ, Blacker BF, Deshpande A, Mosser JF, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Earl L, Marczak LB, Munro SB, Miller-Petrie MK, Rodgers Kemp G, Frostad J, Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Pigott DM, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Ross JM, Burstein R, Graetz N, Rao PC, Khalil IA, Davis Weaver N, Ray SE, Davis I, Farag T, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, Smith DL, Bhatt S, Weiss DJ, Gething PW, Kassebaum NJ, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
- Subjects
- Africa epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, Child, Preschool, Humans, Incidence, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Prevalence, Public Health standards, Risk Factors, Morbidity, Respiratory Tract Infections mortality
- Abstract
Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are the leading cause of death in children under the age of 5, despite the existence of vaccines against many of their aetiologies. Furthermore, more than half of these deaths occur in Africa. Geospatial models can provide highly detailed estimates of trends subnationally, at the level where implementation of health policies has the greatest impact. We used Bayesian geostatistical modelling to estimate LRI incidence, prevalence and mortality in children under 5 subnationally in Africa for 2000-2017, using surveys covering 1.46 million children and 9,215,000 cases of LRI. Our model reveals large within-country variation in both health burden and its change over time. While reductions in childhood morbidity and mortality due to LRI were estimated for almost every country, we expose a cluster of residual high risk across seven countries, which averages 5.5 LRI deaths per 1,000 children per year. The preventable nature of the vast majority of LRI deaths mandates focused health system efforts in specific locations with the highest burden.
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- 2019
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42. Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017.
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Burstein R, Henry NJ, Collison ML, Marczak LB, Sligar A, Watson S, Marquez N, Abbasalizad-Farhangi M, Abbasi M, Abd-Allah F, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abrigo MRM, Acharya D, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adham D, Afshari M, Aghaali M, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed R, Akal CG, Akinyemi JO, Alahdab F, Alam N, Alamene GM, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almalki MJ, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amegah AK, Amini S, Amit AML, Anbari Z, Androudi S, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Artaman A, Asadi A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Ashraf-Ganjouei A, Assadi R, Ataeinia B, Atre SR, Quintanilla BPA, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Babaee E, Babazadeh A, Badawi A, Bagheri S, Bagherzadeh M, Baheiraei N, Balouchi A, Barac A, Bassat Q, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Belay YB, Bell B, Bell ML, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bohlouli S, Breitborde NJK, Britton G, Browne AJ, Nagaraja SB, Busse R, Butt ZA, Car J, Cárdenas R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Cerin E, Chanie WF, Chatterjee P, Chu DT, Cooper C, Costa VM, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daoud F, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, Davis I, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, De Neve JW, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Deribe K, Desai R, Deshpande A, Desyibelew HD, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Doshmangir L, Duraes AR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Ebrahimi R, Ebrahimpour S, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, El Sayed I, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, El-Khatib Z, Emamian MH, Enany S, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezalarab M, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Faridnia R, Faro A, Fazaeli AA, Fazlzadeh M, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Fullman N, Gallus S, Gebre DG, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremeskel GG, Gessner BD, Geta B, Gething PW, Ghadimi R, Ghadiri K, Ghajarzadeh M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Gill TK, Golding N, Gomes NGM, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorini G, Goulart BNG, Graetz N, Greaves F, Green MS, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Haririan H, Haro JM, Hasankhani M, Hasanpoor E, Hasanzadeh A, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Hegazy MI, Hendrie D, Heydarpour F, Hird TR, Hoang CL, Hollerich G, Rad EH, Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi M, Hossain N, Hosseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Hsairi M, Ilesanmi OS, Imani-Nasab MH, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Islam N, Islam SMS, Jürisson M, Balalami NJ, Jalali A, Javidnia J, Jayatilleke AU, Jenabi E, Ji JS, Jobanputra YB, Johnson K, Jonas JB, Shushtari ZJ, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir A, Kahsay A, Kalani H, Kalhor R, Karami M, Karki S, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Khabiri R, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khan J, Khan MS, Khang YH, Khatab K, Khater A, Khater MM, Khatony A, Khazaei M, Khazaei S, Khazaei-Pool M, Khubchandani J, Kianipour N, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinyoki DK, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kolola T, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kraemer MUG, Krishan K, Krohn KJ, Kugbey N, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kuupiel D, Lacey B, Lad SD, Lami FH, Larsson AO, Lee PH, Leili M, Levine AJ, Li S, Lim LL, Listl S, Longbottom J, Lopez JCF, Lorkowski S, Magdeldin S, Abd El Razek HM, Abd El Razek MM, Majeed A, Maleki A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Manda AL, Mansourian M, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Mayala BK, Mazidi M, McKee M, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Meles GG, Mendoza W, Menezes RG, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mills EJ, Milne GJ, Mini GK, Mir SM, Mirjalali H, Mirrakhimov EM, Mohamadi E, Mohammad DK, Darwesh AM, Mezerji NMG, Mohammed AS, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mosapour A, Mousavi SM, Mueller UO, Muluneh AG, Mustafa G, Nabavizadeh B, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Nahvijou A, Najafi F, Nangia V, Ndwandwe DE, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Ngunjiri JW, Thi Nguyen HL, Nguyen LH, Nguyen SH, Nielsen KR, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nnaji CA, Nojomi M, Noroozi M, Nosratnejad S, Noubiap JJ, Motlagh SN, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji KE, Olagunju AT, Olfatifar M, Olum S, Olusanya BO, Oluwasanu MM, Onwujekwe OE, Oren E, Ortega-Altamirano DDV, Ortiz A, Osarenotor O, Osei FB, Osgood-Zimmerman AE, Otstavnov SS, Owolabi MO, P A M, Pagheh AS, Pakhale S, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Park EK, Parsian H, Pashaei T, Patel SK, Pepito VCF, Pereira A, Perkins S, Pickering BV, Pilgrim T, Pirestani M, Piroozi B, Pirsaheb M, Plana-Ripoll O, Pourjafar H, Puri P, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Rabiee M, Rabiee N, Radfar A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi Z, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahimzadeh S, Rajati F, Raju SB, Ramezankhani A, Ranabhat CL, Rasella D, Rashedi V, Rawal L, Reiner RC Jr, Renzaho AMN, Rezaei S, Rezapour A, Riahi SM, Ribeiro AI, Roever L, Roro EM, Roser M, Roshandel G, Roshani D, Rostami A, Rubagotti E, Rubino S, Sabour S, Sadat N, Sadeghi E, Saeedi R, Safari Y, Safari-Faramani R, Safdarian M, Sahebkar A, Salahshoor MR, Salam N, Salamati P, Salehi F, Zahabi SS, Salimi Y, Salimzadeh H, Salomon JA, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Santric Milicevic MM, Jose BPS, Saraswathy SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sartorius B, Sathian B, Saxena S, Sbarra AN, Schaeffer LE, Schwebel DC, Sepanlou SG, Seyedmousavi S, Shaahmadi F, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamshirian A, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharifi H, Sharma J, Sharma R, Sheikh A, Shields C, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shuval K, Siddiqi TJ, Silva JP, Singh JA, Sinha DN, Sisay MM, Sisay S, Sliwa K, Smith DL, Somayaji R, Soofi M, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tabuchi T, Taveira N, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tessema ZT, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, To QG, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Ullah I, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Vahedian-Azimi A, Valdez PR, van Boven JFM, Vasankari TJ, Vasseghian Y, Veisani Y, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vos T, Vu GT, Vujcic IS, Waheed Y, Wakefield J, Wang H, Wang Y, Wang YP, Ward JL, Weintraub RG, Weldegwergs KG, Weldesamuel GT, Westerman R, Wiysonge CS, Wondafrash DZ, Woyczynski L, Wu AM, Xu G, Yadegar A, Yamada T, Yazdi-Feyzabadi V, Yilgwan CS, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Lebni JY, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yousof HSA, Yu C, Yusefzadeh H, Zabeh E, Moghadam TZ, Bin Zaman S, Zamani M, Zandian H, Zangeneh A, Zerfu TA, Zhang Y, Ziapour A, Zodpey S, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
- Subjects
- Child, Geography, Global Health, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Organizational Objectives, Public Health, Socioeconomic Factors, United Nations, Child Mortality trends, Infant Mortality trends
- Abstract
Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.
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- 2019
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43. Publisher Correction: Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.
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Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Marczak LB, Ross JM, Swartz SJ, Albright J, Gardner WM, Shields C, Sligar A, Schipp MF, Pickering BV, Henry NJ, Johnson KB, Louie C, Cork MA, Steuben KM, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lu D, Kinyoki DK, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Earl L, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Burstein R, Woyczynski LP, Wilson KF, VanderHeide JD, Wiens KE, Reiner RC Jr, Piwoz EG, Rawat R, Sartorius B, Weaver ND, Nixon MR, Smith DL, Kassebaum NJ, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Dwyer-Lindgren L, and Hay SI
- Abstract
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
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- 2019
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44. Mapping exclusive breastfeeding in Africa between 2000 and 2017.
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Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Marczak LB, Ross JM, Swartz SJ, Albright J, Gardner WM, Shields C, Sligar A, Schipp MF, Pickering BV, Henry NJ, Johnson KB, Louie C, Cork MA, Steuben KM, Lazzar-Atwood A, Lu D, Kinyoki DK, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Earl L, Mosser JF, Deshpande A, Burstein R, Woyczynski LP, Wilson KF, VanderHeide JD, Wiens KE, Reiner RC Jr, Piwoz EG, Rawat R, Sartorius B, Davis Weaver N, Nixon MR, Smith DL, Kassebaum NJ, Gakidou E, Lim SS, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Dwyer-Lindgren L, and Hay SI
- Subjects
- Africa epidemiology, Female, HIV Infections transmission, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical, Prevalence, Time Factors, World Health Organization, Breast Feeding statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)-giving infants only breast-milk (and medications, oral rehydration salts and vitamins as needed) with no additional food or drink for their first six months of life-is one of the most effective strategies for preventing child mortality
1-4 . Despite these advantages, only 37% of infants under 6 months of age in Africa were exclusively breastfed in 20175 , and the practice of EBF varies by population. Here, we present a fine-scale geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence and trends in 49 African countries from 2000-2017, providing policy-relevant administrative- and national-level estimates. Previous national-level analyses found that most countries will not meet the World Health Organization's Global Nutrition Target of 50% EBF prevalence by 20256 . Our analyses show that even fewer will achieve this ambition in all subnational areas. Our estimates provide the ability to visualize subnational EBF variability and identify populations in need of additional breastfeeding support.- Published
- 2019
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45. Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Cork MA, Sligar A, Steuben KM, Wilson KF, Provost NR, Mayala BK, VanderHeide JD, Collison ML, Hall JB, Biehl MH, Carter A, Frank T, Douwes-Schultz D, Burstein R, Casey DC, Deshpande A, Earl L, El Bcheraoui C, Farag TH, Henry NJ, Kinyoki D, Marczak LB, Nixon MR, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Pigott D, Reiner RC Jr, Ross JM, Schaeffer LE, Smith DL, Davis Weaver N, Wiens KE, Eaton JW, Justman JE, Opio A, Sartorius B, Tanser F, Wabiri N, Piot P, Murray CJL, and Hay SI
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Africa South of the Sahara epidemiology, Female, HIV Infections prevention & control, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Prevalence, Public Health statistics & numerical data, Public Health trends, Young Adult, Geographic Mapping, HIV Infections epidemiology
- Abstract
HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
46. Mapping diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus vaccine coverage in Africa, 2000-2016: a spatial and temporal modelling study.
- Author
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Mosser JF, Gagne-Maynard W, Rao PC, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Fullman N, Graetz N, Burstein R, Updike RL, Liu PY, Ray SE, Earl L, Deshpande A, Casey DC, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Cromwell EA, Pigott DM, Shearer FM, Larson HJ, Weiss DJ, Bhatt S, Gething PW, Murray CJL, Lim SS, Reiner RC Jr, and Hay SI
- Subjects
- Africa epidemiology, Angola, Cost of Illness, Delivery of Health Care standards, Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine administration & dosage, Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine therapeutic use, Ethiopia, Guinea, Humans, Infant, Models, Theoretical, Morocco, Rwanda, Socioeconomic Factors, Somalia, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis Vaccine supply & distribution, Immunization economics, Vaccination statistics & numerical data, Vaccination Coverage statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Background: Routine childhood vaccination is among the most cost-effective, successful public health interventions available. Amid substantial investments to expand vaccine delivery throughout Africa and strengthen administrative reporting systems, most countries still require robust measures of local routine vaccine coverage and changes in geographical inequalities over time., Methods: This analysis drew from 183 surveys done between 2000 and 2016, including data from 881 268 children in 49 African countries. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model calibrated to results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, to produce annual estimates with high-spatial resolution (5 × 5 km) of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT) vaccine coverage and dropout for children aged 12-23 months in 52 African countries from 2000 to 2016., Findings: Estimated third-dose (DPT3) coverage increased in 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 64·6-80·3) of second-level administrative units in Africa from 2000 to 2016, but substantial geographical inequalities in DPT coverage remained across and within African countries. In 2016, DPT3 coverage at the second administrative (ie, district) level varied by more than 25% in 29 of 52 countries, with only two (Morocco and Rwanda) of 52 countries meeting the Global Vaccine Action Plan target of 80% DPT3 coverage or higher in all second-level administrative units with high confidence (posterior probability ≥95%). Large areas of low DPT3 coverage (≤50%) were identified in the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and in Angola. Low first-dose (DPT1) coverage (≤50%) and high relative dropout (≥30%) together drove low DPT3 coverage across the Sahel, Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, Guinea, and Angola., Interpretation: Despite substantial progress in Africa, marked national and subnational inequalities in DPT coverage persist throughout the continent. These results can help identify areas of low coverage and vaccine delivery system vulnerabilities and can ultimately support more precise targeting of resources to improve vaccine coverage and health outcomes for African children., Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
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47. Variation in Deaths From Intentional Injury and Substance Use-Reply.
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Naghavi M, and Murray CJL
- Subjects
- Cause of Death, Humans, Wounds and Injuries, Death, Substance-Related Disorders
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
48. Small area estimation of under-5 mortality in Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia using spatially misaligned data.
- Author
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Squires ER, Teeple S, Ikilezi G, Allen Roberts D, Colombara DV, Allen SK, Kamande SM, Graetz N, Flaxman AD, El Bcheraoui C, Asbjornsdottir K, Asiimwe G, Augusto Â, Augusto O, Chilundo B, De Schacht C, Gimbel S, Kamya C, Namugaya F, Masiye F, Mauieia C, Miangotar Y, Mimche H, Sabonete A, Sarma H, Sherr K, Simuyemba M, Sinyangwe AC, Uddin J, Wagenaar BH, and Lim SS
- Subjects
- Bangladesh epidemiology, Cameroon epidemiology, Censuses, Chad epidemiology, Child, Preschool, Humans, Infant, Infant Death, Infant, Newborn, Mozambique epidemiology, Uganda epidemiology, Zambia epidemiology, Child Health, Child Mortality trends, Data Collection methods, Developing Countries statistics & numerical data, Health Status Disparities, Infant Mortality trends, Spatial Analysis
- Abstract
Background: The under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) is an important metric of child health and survival. Country-level estimates of U5MR are readily available, but efforts to estimate U5MR subnationally have been limited, in part, due to spatial misalignment of available data sources (e.g., use of different administrative levels, or as a result of historical boundary changes)., Methods: We analyzed all available complete and summary birth history data in surveys and censuses in six countries (Bangladesh, Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia) at the finest geographic level available in each data source. We then developed small area estimation models capable of incorporating spatially misaligned data. These small area estimation models were applied to the birth history data in order to estimate trends in U5MR from 1980 to 2015 at the second administrative level in Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia and at the third administrative level in Bangladesh., Results: We found substantial variation in U5MR in all six countries: there was more than a two-fold difference in U5MR between the area with the highest rate and the area with the lowest rate in every country. All areas in all countries experienced declines in U5MR between 1980 and 2015, but the degree varied both within and between countries. In Cameroon, Chad, Mozambique, and Zambia we found areas with U5MRs in 2015 that were higher than in other parts of the same country in 1980. Comparing subnational U5MR to country-level targets for the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), we find that 12.8% of areas in Bangladesh did not meet the country-level target, although the country as whole did. A minority of areas in Chad, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia met the country-level MDG targets while these countries as a whole did not., Conclusions: Subnational estimates of U5MR reveal significant within-country variation. These estimates could be used for identifying high-need areas and positive deviants, tracking trends in geographic inequalities, and evaluating progress towards international development targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals.
- Published
- 2018
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49. Trends and Patterns of Differences in Infectious Disease Mortality Among US Counties, 1980-2014.
- Author
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El Bcheraoui C, Mokdad AH, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, Morozoff C, Shirude S, Naghavi M, and Murray CJL
- Subjects
- Female, Gastrointestinal Diseases mortality, HIV Infections mortality, Hepatitis mortality, Humans, Local Government, Male, Meningitis mortality, Mortality trends, Regression Analysis, Respiratory Tract Infections mortality, Sex Distribution, Tuberculosis mortality, United States epidemiology, Communicable Diseases mortality
- Abstract
Importance: Infectious diseases are mostly preventable but still pose a public health threat in the United States, where estimates of infectious diseases mortality are not available at the county level., Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates and trends by county from 1980 to 2014 from lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis., Design and Setting: This study used deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database. Validated small-area estimation models were applied to these data to estimate county-level infectious disease mortality rates., Exposures: County of residence., Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates of lower respiratory infections, diarrheal diseases, HIV/AIDS, meningitis, hepatitis, and tuberculosis by county, year, and sex., Results: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 4 081 546 deaths due to infectious diseases recorded in the United States. In 2014, a total of 113 650 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 108 764-117 942) deaths or a rate of 34.10 (95% UI, 32.63-35.38) deaths per 100 000 persons were due to infectious diseases in the United States compared to a total of 72 220 (95% UI, 69 887-74 712) deaths or a rate of 41.95 (95% UI, 40.52-43.42) deaths per 100 000 persons in 1980, an overall decrease of 18.73% (95% UI, 14.95%-23.33%). Lower respiratory infections were the leading cause of infectious diseases mortality in 2014 accounting for 26.87 (95% UI, 25.79-28.05) deaths per 100 000 persons (78.80% of total infectious diseases deaths). There were substantial differences among counties in death rates from all infectious diseases. Lower respiratory infection had the largest absolute mortality inequality among counties (difference between the 10th and 90th percentile of the distribution, 24.5 deaths per 100 000 persons). However, HIV/AIDS had the highest relative mortality inequality between counties (10.0 as the ratio of mortality rate in the 90th and 10th percentile of the distribution). Mortality from meningitis and tuberculosis decreased over the study period in all US counties. However, diarrheal diseases were the only cause of infectious diseases mortality to increase from 2000 to 2014, reaching a rate of 2.41 (95% UI, 0.86-2.67) deaths per 100 000 persons, with many counties of high mortality extending from Missouri to the northeastern region of the United States., Conclusions and Relevance: Between 1980 and 2014, there were declines in mortality from most categories of infectious diseases, with large differences among US counties. However, over this time there was an increase in mortality for diarrheal diseases.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
50. Trends and Patterns of Geographic Variation in Mortality From Substance Use Disorders and Intentional Injuries Among US Counties, 1980-2014.
- Author
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Dwyer-Lindgren L, Bertozzi-Villa A, Stubbs RW, Morozoff C, Shirude S, Unützer J, Naghavi M, Mokdad AH, and Murray CJL
- Subjects
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alcohol-Related Disorders mortality, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Interpersonal Relations, Male, Middle Aged, United States epidemiology, Young Adult, Self-Injurious Behavior mortality, Substance-Related Disorders mortality, Suicide statistics & numerical data, Violence statistics & numerical data
- Abstract
Importance: Substance use disorders, including alcohol use disorders and drug use disorders, and intentional injuries, including self-harm and interpersonal violence, are important causes of early death and disability in the United States., Objective: To estimate age-standardized mortality rates by county from alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence in the United States., Design and Setting: Validated small-area estimation models were applied to deidentified death records from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and population counts from the US Census Bureau, NCHS, and the Human Mortality Database to estimate county-level mortality rates from 1980 to 2014 for alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence., Exposures: County of residence., Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized mortality rates by US county (N = 3110), year, sex, and cause., Results: Between 1980 and 2014, there were 2 848 768 deaths due to substance use disorders and intentional injuries recorded in the United States. Mortality rates from alcohol use disorders (n = 256 432), drug use disorders (n = 542 501), self-harm (n = 1 289 086), and interpersonal violence (n = 760 749) varied widely among counties. Mortality rates decreased for alcohol use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence at the national level between 1980 and 2014; however, over the same period, the percentage of counties in which mortality rates increased for these causes was 65.4% for alcohol use disorders, 74.6% for self-harm, and 6.6% for interpersonal violence. Mortality rates from drug use disorders increased nationally and in every county between 1980 and 2014, but the relative increase varied from 8.2% to 8369.7%. Relative and absolute geographic inequalities in mortality, as measured by comparing the 90th and 10th percentile among counties, decreased for alcohol use disorders and interpersonal violence but increased substantially for drug use disorders and self-harm between 1980 and 2014., Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality due to alcohol use disorders, drug use disorders, self-harm, and interpersonal violence varied widely among US counties, both in terms of levels of mortality and trends. These estimates may be useful to inform efforts to target prevention, diagnosis, and treatment to improve health and reduce inequalities.
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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